^I have to admit that this sounds like a bit of good news.  Not that this is going to solve everything, but it may help ease the transition a bit. 

This reinforces what I was saying earlier about a peak oil-induced downturn hurting truckers and not railroads (although this isn't exactly the same thing)....

 

http://www.railwayage.com/breaking_news.shtml#Feature2

 

December 13, 2007

Fitch: Downturn hits truckers harder than rails

 

The Fitch rating service said in a statement today that freight transportation seems likely to face difficult times at least through the first half of 2008, though "railroads are expected to perform better than their trucking peers as relatively tighter rail capacity and less exposure to cyclical shipments will continue to support pricing."

 

"The hope-for uptick in demand that many anticipated for the second half of this year never materialized, and demand for the peak season has been about as weak as the lackluster period last year," said Fitch. "The effect of weak demand has not been equally seen across the railroad and trucking industries as excess truck capacity in both the truckload and less-than-truckload sectors has forced truckers to choose between price and volume."

msnbc.com: BREAKING NEWS: Crude oil futures surge to record $100 a barrel

Oil pushes to $100

Violence in Nigeria, supply disruption in Mexico and the prospect of another drop in U.S. inventories and more rate cuts drive crude past the triple-digit mark

January 2 2008: 12:23 PM EST

 

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices kicked off the first trading day of 2008 by hitting a new high of $100 a barrel Wednesday on violence in oil-rich Nigeria, the prospect of more interest rate cuts, a halt in Mexican imports and the expectation of yet another drop in U.S. crude supplies.

 

U.S. crude for February delivery jumped $4.02 to $100 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The previous trading record was $99.29 set Nov. 20. Oil prices ended 2007 by gaining nearly 60 percent for the year, the largest jump this decade.

 

Find this article at:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/02/markets/oil/index.htm?postversion=2008010212 

 

UrbanOhio lost all forum postings, personal messages and even entire threads created after Dec. 20. Thus a message I posted yesterday about oil supplies in which I put a lot of research is gone.

 

Oil pushes to $100

Violence in Nigeria, supply disruption in Mexico and the prospect of another drop in U.S. inventories and more rate cuts drive crude past the triple-digit mark

January 2 2008: 12:23 PM EST

 

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices kicked off the first trading day of 2008 by hitting a new high of $100 a barrel Wednesday on violence in oil-rich Nigeria, the prospect of more interest rate cuts, a halt in Mexican imports and the expectation of yet another drop in U.S. crude supplies.

 

The last two factors are particularly troubling to me.

OK, let's try this again....argh

 

Based on the chart below, and if the trend continues, U.S. oil stockpiles will be gone in two years and two months (or early 2010). Obviously alot can affect this trend either way.

 

http://www.energybulletin.net/image/uploads/38683/doe_crude_oil_inventories.jpg

 

http://www.energybulletin.net/38683.html

 

US Petroleum Inventories

 

Crude inventories in the US fell by 3.3 million barrels last week as demand continued to edge up and imports remained below the roughly 10 million b/d needed to support domestic consumption. US crude stocks have declined by 60 million barrels in the last six months and are now below the 5-year average of 300 million barrels for this time of year. Total US commercial stockpiles for crude and products have dropped by roughly about 59 million barrels during 2007.

 

While gasoline stockpiles appear adequate for the time being, US distillate stocks dropped by 2.8 million barrels last week as imports dropped to 143,000 barrels per day. Distillate stocks are now down 11 percent for the year and are at the bottom of the 5-year average range for December.

Here's a fascinating table, especially the trends of where the U.S. is getting more of its imported oil and where it's getting less....

 

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbblpd_a.htm

Single trader behind oil record

 

The man behind the record rise in oil prices to $100 a barrel was a lone trader, seeking bragging rights and a minute of fame, market watchers say.

 

A single trader bid up the price by buying a modest lot and then sold it immediately at a loss, they said.

 

Story from BBC NEWS:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/business/7169543.stm

 

Published: 2008/01/03 13:11:11 GMT

 

© BBC MMVIII

 

^I am so happy that some of these slimeballs find it worth getting up in the morning just to wreck havoc while so many people are struggling across this country.

^I am so happy that some of these slimeballs find it worth getting up in the morning just to wreck havoc while so many people are struggling across this country.

 

I love how the article doesn't name the trader.

Here's a fascinating table, especially the trends of where the U.S. is getting more of its imported oil and where it's getting less....

 

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbblpd_a.htm

 

Interesting chart. 3 of the biggest, seems to be an issue, Mexico (slowing production), Venzuela (who knows what they will do) and Nigeria (not very stable). If we lose or have major problems with 2 of these 3 we are in big touble.

^I am so happy that some of these slimeballs find it worth getting up in the morning just to wreck havoc while so many people are struggling across this country.

 

It was selfish, but time has shown he wasn't alone. Maybe the guy should have waited 24 hours to sell the contract at $100.08 and make a slight profit.

 

What concerns me most is that the uninformed will use this episode as an example that speculators are THE reason why oil prices are going up. Too bad it isn't getting reported that oil from some markets has been bought for more than $100 per barrel for several weeks now. If you want to buy oil for Indonesia, $100+ contracts aren't unusual. At the other end, you can buy oil contracts from Canadian suppliers for about $65 per barrel. Obviously, those contracts get bought first.

http://www.fcnp.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2322&Itemid=35

 

Published on 3 Jan 2008 by Falls Church News-Press. Archived on 3 Jan 2008.

 

The peak oil crisis: diesel

by Tom Whipple

 

The evidence is growing that it is going to take a really major event to get America out of its beloved and seemingly essential automobiles. Even with gasoline running a dollar a gallon higher compared to this time last year, consumption is holding about the same or even creeping up a bit. The conventional wisdom is that it is going to take some spectacularly high prices (Europe is already at $8 a gallon) before we see a significant reduction in driving. Shortages, however, are another matter. If your neighborhood gas stations, or perhaps those along the Interstates, are out of fuel, you are going to cut back your driving -- period. There will be very little to do other than call you Congressman and demand that something be done.

 

Last spring, a combination of refinery mishaps, unusually high consumption and low U.S. prices that sent cargoes of gasoline elsewhere led to an unusually large drop in U.S. gasoline stockpiles. There were fears spot shortages were only days, or perhaps hours, away from developing. Fortunately, the refineries started working better, gasoline prices soared and the great tankers from across the seas soon refilled our gasoline stocks.

The P-D has an interesting graphic on what's driving up the price of oil & gasoline:

 

http://www.cleveland.com/business/wide/index.ssf?oil0104.html

Decent graphic. I would have also listed all the top oil-producing countries which have passed their peak of oil production and in what year that happened.

http://www.prweb.com/prfiles/2008/01/02/283903/gI_0_Graphwithbluebackground.png

Three examples of oil production rising, peaking, then falling -- a lifecycle that all oil fields go through, be they a single field, a region's fields, a nation's or the world's.

 

http://www.prweb.com/prfiles/2008/01/02/283903/EIAOilAllLiquids.png

Global oil production has dropped since 2005 while demand continues to rise. Was 2005 the year that global oil production peaked? It's starting to look that way. (Data Source: Energy Information Adminstration)

 

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2008/1/prweb598922.htm

 

Oil Price Touches $100 a Barrel; Signal of Pending Oil Shortages Ignored, According to TheOilDrum.com

 

The price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil touched $100 on January 2, 2008, a new milestone. According to TheOilDrum.com, WTI oil price has been giving a very clear signal of pending shortage for over five years now, and in breaching the symbolic $100 a barrel mark, continues to do so. Those driving the world economy have steadfastly ignored this red warning light. In doing so, they are steering the world toward an energy disaster characterized by shortages, high energy prices, inflation, growing inequity, civil unrest and famine.

 

(PRWEB) January 4, 2008 -- Oil Production Graph

 

 

A Signal Ignored

 

Coming as it does on the eve of the Iowa caucuses, the breaking of the $100 dollar barrier for oil prices will likely be treated by many as an almost imperceptible change in our world. By Friday it will likely be lost in the discussion of the political events unfolding.

HIGHER PRICES' effects

Gusher of goods made with crude

Saturday,  January 5, 2008 3:08 AM

By Paul Wilson

 

THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH

 

High petroleum prices won't just hit you at the gas pump. They could hit you at the cash register when you buy golf balls, lipstick and pantyhose.

 

Those and dozens of other products contain at least some oil, which passed $100 a barrel during trading for the first time this week.

 

http://dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/01/05/oil_ripple.ART_ART_01-05-08_A1_S28VIK8.html?sid=101

^They forgot pharmaceuticals-- very, very important. 

 

An oil executive once said (I forget his name) "With all of the useful things we make from oil, burning it for transportation fuel is makes about as much sense as burning Picassos for heat"

 

 

I admit my ignorance. I'd never heard of this Energy Task Force before. I'd like to learn more.....

 

http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/11934

 

Greased Pigs

by Stephen Pizzo | January 5, 2008 - 10:56am

 

Gee, I'd really like to let bygones be bygones, but recent events make that quite impossible. I want everyone to stop looking forward to January 21, 2009 just long enough to settle an old score.

 

This week it happened -- oil topped $100 a barrel. Back in early 2001 when Dick Cheney pulled together secret meetings with the nation's top energy producers to plot out the new administration's energy strategy, oil was selling for $26 a barrel.

You mean you didn't know about Cheney's energy task force? Of course not. Little about its workings was made public, except that the only invitees were (you guessed it) oil execs. People tried to get access thru the sunshine law but were rebuffed. Wanna bet what kind of "policy" these geniuses came up with?

Who knew that the former CIA director had a sense of humor??

____________________

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/04/AR2008010404296.html

 

Why Is Oil So Pricey? It's a Conspiracy!

 

By R. James Woolsey

Sunday, January 6, 2008; B04

As oil prices hit a record $100 per barrel last week, I came into possession of a transcript of a recent conference call of a heretofore unknown organization called the Pedal to the Metal Coalition, or PedMet, which encourages Americans to stay addicted to oil. The participants seemed to be the head of the shadowy group's K Street office, an official at OPEC headquarters, a representative from each OPEC member state and some hangers-on. Their greatest fear is that the United States will become oil-independent -- and they're concerned that the crunchy types' campaign to feed cows grass rather than corn could mean not only a healthier America but one less dependent on OPEC.

 

I'm making the transcript available in the public interest.[\i]

5 Myths About Breaking Our Foreign Oil Habit

 

By Robert Bryce

Sunday, January 13, 2008; B03

 

With oil prices still flirting with $100 a barrel, everyone is talking about the need for "energy independence." Late last year, President Bush signed the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007; Sen. John McCain has declared, "We need energy independence"; and Sen. Barack Obama has called for "serious leadership to get us started down the path of energy independence."

 

This may all be good politics. But the idea that the United States, the world's single largest energy consumer, can be independent of the $5 trillion-per-year energy business -- the world's single biggest industry -- is ludicrous on its face. The push for energy independence is based on a series of false premises . Here are a few of the most pernicious ones.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/10/AR2008011002452.html?hpid=opinionsbox1

I'm not sure if this is the spot for this article, but here goes...

 

Transit Panel Urges Gas Tax Increase

January 15, 2008 | ASSOCIATED PRESS

 

WASHINGTON (AP) - A special commission is urging the government to raise federal gasoline taxes by as much as 40 cents per gallon over five years as part of a sweeping overhaul designed to ease traffic congestion and repair the nation's decaying bridges and roads.

 

The two-year study being released Tuesday by the National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission, the first to recommend broad changes after the devastating bridge collapse in Minneapolis last August, warns that urgent action is needed to avoid future disasters.

 

[glow=yellow,2,300]Under the recommendation, the current tax of 18.4 cents per gallon for unleaded gasoline would be increased annually for five years -- by anywhere from 5 cents to 8 cents each year -- and then indexed to inflation afterward to help fix the infrastructure[/glow], expand public transit and highways as well as broaden railway and rural access, according to persons with direct knowledge of the report, who spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because the report is not yet public.

I would repost this under the new Thread on transport policy that KJP started.  Good article!

A task that is becomming harder to do by the day...

 

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2008-01-15-372164343_x.htm

 

Bush: OPEC nations should pump more oil

By TERENCE HUNT and ANNE GEARAN, Associated Press Writers

1 hour, 37 minutes ago

 

 

 

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia - President Bush urged OPEC nations on Tuesday to put more oil on the world market and warned that soaring prices could cause an economic slowdown in the United States.

 

"High energy prices can damage consuming economies," the president told a small group of reporters traveling with him in the Mideast.

 

"It's affected our families. Paying more for gasoline hurts some of the American families, and I'll make that clear to him," said Bush, heading into more talks with Saudi King Abdullah. Shortly after Bush spoke, the Saudi oil minister said the kingdom, responsible for almost one-third of the cartel's total output, would raise oil production when the market justified it.

^---- "climate-controlled, air-conditioned stables."  :roll:

Bush has the biggest hard-on for war I've ever seen. He would love an excuse to start a war with Iran. I'm hoping the next person we have in office will put a hell of a lot more money into research for sustainable energy.

 

 

Indonesia now an energy importer:

http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm?aid=757

HUGE ADMISSION!!! Too bad no mainstream media (that I know of) has covered this...

______________________

 

http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/bmotoringb-gm-concedes-oil-has-peaked-and-electric-is-the-future/2008/01/14/1200159362708.html

Published on 14 Jan 2008

 

General Motors CEO: oil has peaked

 

by Joshua Dowling

 

THE world's biggest car maker, General Motors, believes the global oil supply has peaked and a switch to electric cars is inevitable.

 

In a stunning announcement at the opening of the Detroit Motor Show yesterday, GM's chairman and chief executive officer, Rick Wagoner, said ethanol was an important interim solution to the demand for oil, until battery technology gave electric cars the range of petrol-powered cars.

 

GM is working on an electric car, the Volt — due in showrooms in 2010 — but delays in battery technology have slowed its development.

Well, Bush may be right. Those economies over there depend on _us_ as much as we depend on _them_, and a significant slowdown on either side (and I'm not talking about a small recession here, but a global slowdown due to oil prices) will severely affect all.

^Actually, we are becoming less and less important in the global economy.  We're no longer the biggest consumer market-- we're actually behind India, China, and the EU-- and our rather belligerent foreign policy of recent years (well, it actually has had varying degrees of belligerence for a few decades now, it's just become much more overt-- only 15% of the world likes us now) is not helping matters either. 

 

I'm not convinced a global recession is going to do much with respect to oil prices.  Global production stopped growing after May 2005, some former oil exporters are now net oil importers, like Indonesia and Britain, production is falling in several key fields like Burgan (Kuwait), Cantarell (Mexico), Venezuela, etc.  Consumption in China and India will still rise sharply this year, regardless. 

 

We'll just have to see how things unfold...

^---- "climate-controlled, air-conditioned stables."  :roll:

 

What's this about my office?

^Actually, we are becoming less and less important in the global economy.  We're no longer the biggest consumer market-- we're actually behind India, China, and the EU-- and our rather belligerent foreign policy of recent years (well, it actually has had varying degrees of belligerence for a few decades now, it's just become much more overt-- only 15% of the world likes us now). 

 

Who do you think finances development in those countries? People act like this is something new. There was a time when Japan saw 20% growth in one year. Land under the impirial palace in Japan was worth more than the entire state of California. China has it's own problems (18% inflation last month alone). In order to fix that they'll need to raise rates and curb growth. Look at UAE (Dubai) they're experiencing crazy growth but it's not sustainable.

the buzzword of 2008, sovereign wealth funds

Now I can sleep soundly tonight! Problem is, at what price can these other fuel sources be tapped? Are they cost-effective? How much energy will it take to make them usable for everyday consumption? And what are the environmental consequences of tapping and burning these fuel sources? Just to say they may exist, doesn't mean we can use them.

 

http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm?aid=764

 

Posted on Jan. 17, 2008

 

By Peter Glover

 

Aramco Chief Debunks Peak Oil

 

"We have grossly underestimated mankind’s ability to find new reserves of petroleum, as well as our capacity to raise recovery rates and tap fields once thought inaccessible or impossible to produce.” So said Abdallah S. Jum’ah, Saudi Aramco’s president and CEO, during his address at the 11th Congress of the World’s Energy Council in Rome last November.

 

Who do you think finances development in those countries?

 

It was financed largely by the gutting of America's economy.  Suffice it to say, there are a lot of things coming into play that are chipping away at the privileged economic position we have enjoyed, and not all of them are economic.  However, this isn't the place to discuss these things in detail, so I'll stop here.

 

A good read on the economic factors can be found in Clyde Prestowitz's book:  Three Billion New Capitalists.  Prestowitz is a former Reagan administration official in the Department of Commerce. 

 

 

commuting patterns certainly factor into peak oil concerns. i didnt see the study itself in the link below, but this is the gist of the abstract:

 

the myth that mostly rich people commute into the city from the burbs is far from true.

 

it turns out that of the more than 750k daily commuters into nyc whose commutes exceed one hour, 2/3rds earn less than $35k/yr & only 6% earn more than $75k/yr. disproportionately black vs white too.

 

http://www.prattcenter.net/

^That's true for top tier cities like New York City, San Francisco, etc, but it's not true everywhere.  Look at all of the rich neighborhoods here in the Cleveland area that are suburban/exurban:  Westlake, Rocky River, Hudson, Beachwood, Hunting Valley, etc. 

Slower boats to China as ship owners save fuel

full article at:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080120/lf_nm/climate_ships_dc_1;_ylt=ApvgAwyHTcHkwehqze5sxM5rAlMA

 

By Erik Kirschbaum Sat Jan 19, 8:22 PM ET

 

BERLIN (Reuters) - Oil at more than $90 a barrel is concentrating minds in the shipping industry. Higher fuel costs and mounting pressure to curb emissions are leading modern merchant fleets to rediscover the ancient power of the sail....

 

GO-SLOW

Shell chief fears oil shortage in seven years

 

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/wef/article3248484.ece

 

World demand for oil and gas will outstrip supply within seven years, according to Royal Dutch Shell.

 

The oil multinational is predicting that conventional supplies will not keep pace with soaring population growth and the rapid pace of economic development.

 

Jeroen van der Veer, Shell’s chief executive, said in an e-mail to the company’s staff this week that output of conventional oil and gas was close to peaking. He wrote: “Shell estimates that after 2015 supplies of easy-to-access oil and gas will no longer keep up with demand.”... [snip]

 

That's tidbit from Shell is HUGE and should rock the oil markets, if it gets reported widely enough.

 

My own prediction is that domestic shortages will begin in 2010, depending on people's responses to gas prices leading up until then. If we get used to high prices and continue our "pedal to the metal" consuming ways, then the shortage in the U.S. could come sooner (with geographic-specific shortages happening even earlier). If the run-up to the shortages is accompanied by steadily rising prices that people respond to, then the shortages will be delayed.

And here we are with Bush fighting any progress on this or any other issue in what amounts to a rear-guard action. Another year wasted before he is out of office. I hope the next prez takes bold action to address this coming tidal wave.

Here's the full e-mail from Shell Oil Co. .....

______________

 

 

From: Jeroen van der Veer, Chief Executive

To: All Shell employees

Date: 22 January 2008

 

Subject: Shell Energy Scenarios

 

Dear Colleagues

 

In this letter, I'd like to share reflections about how we see the energy future, and our preferred route to meeting the world's energy needs. Industry, governments and energy users - that is, all of us - will face the twin challenge of more energy and less CO2.

 

This letter is based on a text I've written for publication in several newspapers in the coming weeks. You can use it in your communications externally. There will be more information about energy scenarios inthe months ahead.

 

By the year 2100, the world's energy system will be radically different from today's. Renewable energy like solar, wind, hydroelectricity and biofuels will make up a large share of the energy mix, and nuclear energy too will have a place.

 

Mankind will have found ways of dealing with air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. New technologies will have reduced the amount of energy needed to power buildings and vehicles.

 

Indeed, the distant future looks bright, but getting there will be an adventure. At Shell, we think the world will take one of two possible routes. The first, a scenario we call Scramble, resembles a race through a mountainous desert. Like an off-road rally, it promises excitement and fierce competition. However, the unintended consequence of "more haste" will often be "less speed" and many will crash along the way.

 

The alternative scenario, called Blueprints, has some false starts and develops like a cautious ride on a road that is still under construction. Whether we arrive safely at our destination depends on the discipline of the drivers and the ingenuity of all those involved in the construction effort. Technical innovation provides for excitement.

 

Regardless of which route we choose, the world's current predicament limits our maneuvering room. We are experiencing a step-change in the growth rate of energy demand due to population growth and economic development, and Shell estimates that after 2015 supplies of easy-to-access oil and gas will no longer keep up with demand.

As a result, society has no choice but to add other sources of energy - renewables , yes, but also more nuclear power and unconventional fossil fuels such as oil sands. Using more energy inevitably means emitting more CO2 at a time when climate change has become a critical global issue.

 

In the Scramble scenario, nations rush to secure energy resources for themselves, fearing that energy security is a zero-sum game, with clear winners and losers. The use of local coal and homegrown biofuels increases fast.

 

Taking the path of least resistance, policymakers pay little attention to curbing energy consumption - until supplies run short. Likewise, despite much rhetoric, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until major shocks trigger political reactions. Since these responses are overdue, they are severe and lead to energy price spikes and volatility.

 

The other route to the future is less painful, even if the start is more disorderly. This Blueprints scenario sees numerous coalitions emerging to take on the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution through cross-border cooperation.

 

Much innovation occurs at the local level, as major cities develop links with industry to reduce local emissions. National governments introduce efficiency standards, taxes and other policy instruments to improve the environmental performance of buildings, vehicles and transport fuels.

 

As calls for harmonization increase, policies converge across the globe. Cap-and-trade mechanisms that put a cost on industrial CO 2 emissions gain international acceptance. Rising CO2 prices accelerate innovation, spawning breakthroughs. A growing number of cars are powered by electricity and hydrogen, while industrial facilities are fitted with technology to capture CO 2 and store it underground.

 

Against the backdrop of these two equally plausible scenarios, we will only know in a few years whether December's Bali declaration on climate change was just rhetoric or the beginning of a global effort to counter it. Much will depend on how attitudes evolve in Beijing, Brussels, New Delhi and Washington.

 

Shell traditionally uses its scenarios to prepare for the future without expressing a preference for one over another. But, faced with the need to manage climate risk for our investors and our grandchildren, we believe the Blueprints outcomes provide the best balance between economy, energy and environment.

 

For a second opinion, we appealed to climate change calculations made at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. These calculations indicate that a Blueprints world with CO2 capture and storage results in the least amount of climate change, provided emissions of other major manmade greenhouse gases are similarly reduced.

 

The sobering reality is that the Blueprints scenario will only come to pass if policymakers agree a global approach to emissions trading and actively promote energy efficiency and new technology in four sectors: heat and power generation, industry, mobility and buildings. It will be hard work and there is little time.

 

For instance, Blueprints assumes CO2 is captured at 90% of all coal- and gas-fired power plants in developed countries in 2050, plus at least 50% of those in non-OECD countries. Today, there are none. Since CO2 capture and storage adds cost and brings no revenues , government support is needed to make it happen quickly on a scale large enough to affect global emissions. At the very least, companies should earn carbon credits for the CO2 they capture and store.

 

Blueprints will not be easy. But it offers the world the best chance of reaching a sustainable energy future unscathed, so we should explore this route with the same ingenuity and persistence that put humans on the moon and created the digital age.

 

The world faces a long voyage before it reaches a low-carbon energy system. Companies can suggest possible routes to get there, but governments are in the driving seat. And governments will determine whether we should prepare for a bitter competition or a true team effort.

 

That is the article, and how I see our challenges and opportunities. I look forward to hearing how you see the situation (please be concise).

 

Regards

Jeroen van der Veer, Chief Executive

Emission/carbon credits are far more efficient than direct government control.

 

I recall the great debate over the Kyoto Treaty. Of the 174 nations that signed the pact, only ONE is on board to actually meet the protocol. The United States, which refused to sign the treaty, is one of the FEW nations to have actually stabilized their industrial emissions and reduced it in areas. How was this possible when we didn't sign the now-worthless contract?

 

Emission credits. Take power plants for an example. Older (and thus more dirty) power generating facilities can install scrubbers that eliminate more pollution at the same cost that a newer (and thus more cleaner) power generating facility can for the same amount of money. Each power generating facility has two credits each, so the newer facility sells their credits to the older facility.

 

This allows the newer facility to pollute more or at the same level as before, but it allows for the older plant to eliminate more emissions.

 

Can this same methodology be applied to automobile manufactuers?

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23118018-3102,00.html

Shell:  Fuel Crisis by 2015

 

 

 

Melissa Ketchell

 

January 27, 2008 11:00pm

 

IT will take only seven years for world demand for oil and gas to outstrip supply, according to the chief executive of the world's second-biggest oil company....[snip]

Did anyone else see the History Channel's Mega-disasters "Peak Oil" program last night? Has that been on before? All I can say is wow, I couldn't believe I was hearing and seeing a balanced, informative look at Peak Oil, what it is, and what it could mean for society if it is not seriously addressed. Bonus points for having Matthew Simmons on it as well.

It was pretty good, and very similar to the film "A Crude Awakening" ....

 

http://www.oilcrashmovie.com/film.html

 

You can buy it here....

 

http://www.amazon.com/Crude-Awakening-Oil-Crash/dp/B000PY52IG

 

Or you can get it on Netflix. As for the History Channel program "Crude" which followed the Mega-disasters "Peak Oil" program, I was very disappointed. The section on how oil was formed (and why it is such special stuff) was very good, yet about twice as long as it needed to be. The rest of the program "Crude" seemed to wander without focus. Not a very well planned and produced program, although the quality of the footage was excellent.

 

Is this Peak Oil or a crisis of investment (see graphics below and http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/3557#more)? We'll know in a few years if we never hit higher petroleum production and export levels than we are now....

 

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/world_liquids.png

 

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/worldcrude.png

 

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/exports.png

 

There is a possibility that we're a plateau of production and export because investment in "super straws" is artificially keeping production rates high. Once those super straws can draw out no more oil from the world's big, aging oil fields, watch the production and export rates fall fast....

 

http://img479.imageshack.us/img479/5508/expressc8sb.gif

Did anyone else see the History Channel's Mega-disasters "Peak Oil" program last night? Has that been on before? All I can say is wow, I couldn't believe I was hearing and seeing a balanced, informative look at Peak Oil, what it is, and what it could mean for society if it is not seriously addressed. Bonus points for having Matthew Simmons on it as well.

 

Interesting. I didn't watch it because I saw a commercial for it that said "brought to you by Chevy". I rolled my eyes because I thought it would be biased. I shouldn't have been so pessimistic

Sheryl Crow song, "Gasoline"

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sr8k66I34VA

 

lyrics:

 

Way back in the year of 2017

The sun was growing hotter

And oil was way beyond its peak

When crazy Hector Johnson broke into a refinery

And the black gold started flowing

Just like Boston tea

 

It was the summer of the riots

And London sat in sweltering heat

And the gangs of Mini Coopers

Took the battle to the streets

But when the creed was handed down

For no more trucks and no more cars

They threw cans of petrol through the windows at Scotland Yard

 

Gasoline

Will be free, will be free

Gasoline

Will be free, will be free

 

When the Mounties stormed the palace of the Saudi family

They held them up for ransom

Without disturbing their high tea

But their getaway was shaky

They stalled in the Riyadh streets

Cause you can't make it very far

When your tank is on empty

 

The final can of gasoline was loaded on a truck

And driven through the streets of Agra to the palace aquaduct

You see, all the majesty of worship that once adorned these fatal halls

Was just a target to the angry

As they blew up the Taj Mahal

 

 

Gasoline

Will be free, will be free

Gasoline

will be free, will be free

 

Gary ran a market way down in Tennessee

Where all the farmers got together and talked about this great country

But when the government turned its back on farming

Man, what I hear

They dragged the pumps out of the ground

With a big vintage John Deere

 

I've got soldiers on my payroll

Standing guard on my front drive

Snipers on the roof poised at those

Who don't want me alive

Cause they audited my taxes

My family under threat

Cause I've got a message and a megaphone

And I'll scream it to the death

 

Gasoline

Will be free, will be free

Gasoline

Will be free, will be free

 

You got the farms in Argentina

Making fuel from sugar cane

You got the bastards in Washington

Afraid of popping the greed vain

Cause the money's in the pipeline

And pipeline's running dry

And we'll be the last to recognize

Where there's shit there's always flies