Anyone buying this? As soon as Libya made this announcement, the price of WTI oil went up almost $5 a barrel to $139. And Libya doesn't want a piece of that action? ? ?

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=a9KtxEX8W3YU&refer=energy

 

 

I'm not. They want/need the money. My understanding is that a lot of the times OPEC agrees to cut production, some of the individual countries just go ahead and keep putting out at whatever output they want. I have to think that it will be business as usual for Libya.

Wall Street (and the bourses in London, Hong Kong and Dubai) react again. This time with a brand-new record....

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080626/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_prices_121;_ylt=Aj1O3T6XsJFRu7yfaJ7ZZxCAsnsA

 

Oil jumps above $140 on OPEC, Libya comments

By JOHN WILEN, AP Business Writer

 

NEW YORK - Oil futures shot above $140 Thursday after OPEC's president said oil prices could rise well above $150 a barrel this year and Libya said it may cut oil production.

 

Light, sweet crude for August delivery rose as high as $140.05 in afternoon trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange before retreating slightly to trade up $5 at $139.55.

 

Chakib Khelil, president of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, said he believes oil prices could rise to between $150 and $170 a barrel this summer before declining later in the year. Khelil said he doesn't think prices will reach $200 a barrel.

Today was a day for the doomers... Oil breaking the $140 per barrel mark, GM stock at its lowest level since 1955, the stock market having its worst month since the Great Depression, airlines crashing and burning, housing foreclosures continuing, etc. etc. And this is only the peak of peak oil, not the slide down the other side. Here's a good column that summarizes where we are now....

______________________

 

http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/5326

 

End of the Petroleum Age?

Michael Klare | June 26, 2008

Editor: John Feffer

 

Foreign Policy In Focus

 

At the hastily convened global oil summit in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on June 22, top officials of producing and consuming nations from around the world attempted to find a combination of solutions that would somehow extricate us from the current crisis over sky-high energy prices. These proposals ranged from increased output by major producers like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to restrictions on the activities of international oil speculators.

 

But all were based on the premise that the crisis can be resolved through the right mix of actions, thus restoring an environment of cheap and abundant oil – a premise that is fundamentally flawed. More and more, the evidence suggests that this is not just a temporary crisis. It is the beginning of the end of the Petroleum Age.

And then there's this gem. Like I've said, the Net Exports Crisis will hit first. Buckle up, people......

________________

 

http://www.sandersresearch.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1360

 

Saudi Net Crude Oil Exports

By John Busby   

Jun/26/2008 

 

The UK Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, has just visited Jeddah, together with leading industrialists in an attempt to boost Saudi crude oil production, reflecting his concerns with the current crude oil price escalation. In response, the Saudi oil minister has promised to raise production by 500,000 barrels per day. However, a closer look at production/consumption levels in the Kingdom, suggests that the Prime Minister's trip was not as fruitful as the pre-summit media anticipated.

 

BP Statistical Review 2008

The latest news on the Net Exports Crisis? It's here.....

 

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/WOE_Nov2006.png

 

Read more here........

 

http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/4179#more

This is in response to suggestions that alternatives to oil exist. One of the favorites is hydrogen...

________________________

 

http://www.energyandcapital.com/articles/hydrogen-economy-fuel+cell/480

 

The Hydrogen Economy

Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Are No Panacea

By Chris Nelder

Friday, July 27th, 2007

 

I'm going to make a prediction today: you will never drive a hydrogen fueled car.

 

Although hydrogen does indeed have some benefits in certain applications, it's my task today to separate the reality of useful fuel cells from the hydrogen hype.

 

That may seem like a bold statement to you now, but by the end of this article, The Hydrogen Economy, you'll understand why.

If you'd like to hear a spirited debate about the role of speculators in the price of oil, start watching this video at the 6:45 mark...

 

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=779985121

 

The gist is, a speculator has to sell an oil future contract at the time of settlement or the speculator will accept an oil tanker showing up at their door or their contract will expire and be worthless. Ultimately what a speculator does is sells the contract for the front month (if today is someday in June, the front month is July and that's the month when the future contract you bought will settle). If there are no buyers for your contract, you dump it for whatever you can get. But the fact is there are more buyers than sellers so the price keeps going up up up up. The guy arguing that Exchange Traded Funds are rolling over the futures contracts has no idea what a futures contract is.......

a

No, I wouldn't. John McCain barely has a clue of what's coming (Barack Obama doesn't have much of one either). The fact that he advocates "energy independence" shows how little he and his advisors understand the energy markets, which are interconnected in price and supply. Nor does he realize that America can function at such wastefully high levels of energy consumption as it has.

 

But this is election campaign season. The time of fairytales.

Nor does he realize that America can function at such wastefully high levels of energy consumption as it has.

 

Exactly, and as KJP also points out, Obama is equally clueless. 

 

There is no path forward from here that does not include America having to learn to live with less and less energy as this century progresses. 

 

 

The five stages of grief:

 

1. denial

2. Anger

3. Bargaining

4. Depression

5. Acceptance

 

We, as a country are at the first stage of the process and our candidates reflect that. We are yet to even get to the anger stage. Remember the truckers protests in 1974? Nothing like that happening now! Planners at ODOT blithely operate as if gas prices will be $1.50 a gallon forever. The media has been very slow to pick up on the idea that we will need forms of transportation other than highways or aviation.

I'm plenty angry

I'm plenty angry too...at our "leaders" who should have seen this coming and done what they could to put us in a position to deal with it.

 

I'm also angry at....US! We, as a nation, are the ones who bought all those mammoth SUV's and Mc Mansions, who did little to help ourselves.

 

Yes, there are those of us who foresaw today's situation, but we were drowned out by those with their heads in the sand.

a

 

    Well, Jimmy Carter took the energy situation seriously, and advocated that the United States stop importing oil, and that Americans wear sweaters in the winter. What happened? He lost 49 states in the next election.

 

 

 

   

There were a lot of reasons why Jimmy Carter lost. I like to think it's because he tried to kill Amtrak. (grin)

 

To his credit, Carter did try to do some positive things concerning energy, but Reagan killed that as soon as he took office.

As for the rest of the nation?  Well, democracy is the only form of government where the people get what they deserve.  And boy, do they deserve it.

 

Democracy: the worst form of government except for all the others.

 

    Well, Jimmy Carter took the energy situation seriously, and advocated that the United States stop importing oil, and that Americans wear sweaters in the winter. What happened? He lost 49 states in the next election.

 

Very true. Voters don't want to hear bad news. They want to hear "Stand with me and everything will be hunky-dory."

 

I'm sure every political consultant who advises their client candidate on their energy message is well aware of the Carter outcome. I believe there is a tempered, responsible message that can be given by candidates and still get elected -- far from the scary shit I regularly post on here. Thankfully I'm not running for office!  :-D

 

  Oh dear.

 

    The ad banner on the peak oil forum is advertising water as fuel.

 

   

I wonder why? Oil is cheaper than bottled water.

 

That ain't right.

$7 GAS BY YEARS END? 

 

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/story?id=5271315&page=1

a

From India. Note the text in bold....

 

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Interview/Matthew_Simmons_Chairman_and_CEO_of_Simmons_and_Co/articleshow/3178465.cms

 

Crude today is dirt cheap: Matthew Simmons

30 Jun, 2008, 0325 hrs IST,Soma Banerjee, ET Bureau

 

He is one who believes future lies in Ratan Tata’s dream car Nano, priced at $2,400, and we are not talking about an auto industry expert. At the end of the day, it’s all about the gas that goes into the car.

 

In an online interview from London, leading energy maven Matthew Simmons spoke to ET on the theories behind the oil prices, the role of major consumers like India and China, and where oil prices are set to go.

a

While there is a lot here to chew on, please at least read the text in bold. Pretty remarkable stuff........

 

http://www.aspo-usa.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=403&Itemid=91

 

Published Jun 30 2008 by ASPO-USA

Archived Jun 30 2008

Peak Oil Review -- June 30, 2008

by Tom Whipple

1. Production and Prices

2. Forecasts

3. Shortages

4. Energy Briefs

 

1. Production and Prices

While last week started quietly, Thursday and Friday turned into a frenzy, with prices surging from a low of $132 a barrel on Wednesday to touch a new high of $142.99 on Friday. The week closed with oil at $140.21, another new high closing price. The $10 a barrel increase was mostly due to financial developments—such as a weak dollar, a major drop in the equities markets, and a flight to the safety of commodities—rather than to oil industry news.

 

Industry news for the week was mixed. Shell started up its offshore platform that had been overrun by Nigerian militants, while Chevron in Nigeria declared force majeure due to a pipeline bombing last week. China seems to be producing more gasoline and diesel in response to the recent price increases. Iraq is on the way to a banner month producing 2.5 million b/d in comparison with the 1.5 million averaged in 2007 and Mexico’s Cantarell oil field continued its relentless decline.

http://www.kunstler.com/

 

June 30, 2008

Worse Than Grandma's Depression

 

    This isn't so funny anymore. Intimations of a July banking collapse rumbled though the Internet this weekend while mainstream news orgs like The New York Times and CNN pulled their puds over swift boats and Amy Winehouse's performance technique. Something is happening, and you don't know what it is, do you Mr. Jones...? to quote the master.

    What's happening is that American society is sliding into a greater depression than the one Grandma lived through. On the technical side, there has been unending controversy as to whether we're gripped by inflation or deflation. It's certainly deceptive. Food and gasoline prices are rising faster than the rivers of Iowa. But the prices of assets, like houses, stocks, jet-skis, GMC Yukons and pre-owned Hummel figurines are cratering as America turns into Yard Sale Nation.

The agricultural economy in America was already in trouble when the stock market crash of 1929 happened.

 

Is any of this true?  Kunstler like to huff and puff, you know

 

cities that are basket-cases of bottomless need, comatose small towns stripped of their assets and social capital, an aviation industry on the verge of death, and a railroad system that is the laughingstock of the world.

^Kunstler can be a bit over-dramatic at times, but nothing he is talking about is false or made-up. We ignore the coming sh!tstorm at our own peril.

Great, just great

At least it's not Monday.

 

 

This is are future to get to work and to get groceries.

 

The agricultural economy in America was already in trouble when the stock market crash of 1929 happened.

 

Is any of this true?  Kunstler like to huff and puff, you know

 

cities that are basket-cases of bottomless need, comatose small towns stripped of their assets and social capital, an aviation industry on the verge of death, and a railroad system that is the laughingstock of the world.

 

I have a problem with Kunstler's arrogance and attitude, but, so far, things appear to be playing out as he has been predicting.  He hasn't always been right (i.e. y2k), but this time, it looks to me that he is. 

 

Kunstler's point about family farms is that we had a more locally based agricultural system back then which is more suited to supplying food to people in an era of growing oil-scarcity.  I have to wonder if farming wasn't doing so well back then because our agricultural system was in the nascent stages of industrialization, but I don't really know. 

 

Anyway, our entire economy is based upon the farcical notion of infinite growth, particularly growth of cheap oil supplies.  There are several reasons things are coming unglued.  The end of cheap oil may be only one of them, but it's exacerbating all the others. 

Except for a few routes, our passenger railroad system is the laughingstock of the developed world. As for small towns in the U.S., they aren't active centers of agricultural trade they used to be, before corporate farming arrived in the 1960s and accelerated in the 1980s.

 

As for farming in the 1920s.....

 

http://library.thinkquest.org/17126/chapter/18.html

 

Farm problems in the 1920s

 

As demand dropped because the US was not in war and Europe no longer needed as many American products, farm prices dropped. Farmers were overproducing. Cotton prices also fell as other fabrics were being used for clothing. This led to a large migration to the cities by farmers. Farmers also recreated the Grange in the form of the American Farm Bureau and restarted the Progressive Party.

 

Agricultural Marketing Act (June 1929)

 

This act created the Federal Farm Board and gave it $500 million to buy far surpluses. However, the Board exhausted its resources and was unable to buy up all surpluses. Crop prices fell anyway.

 

Hawley-Smoot Tariff (1930)

 

Hoover hoped to help farmers by creating a bill that would allow the president to raise or lower tariffs to assist American farm products and manufactured goods. Congress changed the bill into a 55% tariff which Hoover supported when he was pressured by other Republicans. Foreign trade to and from the US was ruined. Problems were not alleviated. This tariff worsened the US economic system and was a part of the reason for the Great Depression.

^Kunstler can be a bit over-dramatic at times, but nothing he is talking about is false or made-up. We ignore the coming sh!tstorm at our own peril.

Favorite quote thread worthy!  http://www.urbanohio.com/forum2/index.php/topic,7454.msg302239.html#msg302239

Is any of this true?  Kunstler like to huff and puff, you know

 

cities that are basket-cases of bottomless need, comatose small towns stripped of their assets and social capital, an aviation industry on the verge of death, and a railroad system that is the laughingstock of the world.

...

Kunstler's point about family farms is that we had a more locally based agricultural system back then which is more suited to supplying food to people in an era of growing oil-scarcity.  I have to wonder if farming wasn't doing so well back then because our agricultural system was in the nascent stages of industrialization, but I don't really know. 

 

Anyway, our entire economy is based upon the farcical notion of infinite growth, particularly growth of cheap oil supplies.  There are several reasons things are coming unglued.  The end of cheap oil may be only one of them, but it's exacerbating all the others. 

 

The passenger rail system is a skeleton that only runs once per day, but the freight rail system is making money.  Kunstler is too broad.

 

Small towns in Ohio, Illinois and Kansas are nice, well kept places.  Their wealth is based on the currently successful agricultural economy.  My hunch is that agricultural America is exploiting our trade deals.  (Yes, I meant every definition of exploit.)  Kunstler is too broad, to say the least.

^I've been through plenty of small towns in Ohio and elsewhere with downtowns that are dead, dying, or at least a shadow of their former selves, which means local economies have lost their diversity (because most of the agricultural wealth is currently going to multinational agribusinesses, not staying in the hands of farmers and local communities). 

 

Our agricultural sector is much less diverse than it used to be.  It has been taken over by multinational agribusiness which works best:

 

1.  on large farms  (which requires lots of cheap fossil fuel inputs)

2.  by picking crop species that are easily harvested and can survive long distance shipping (which requires cheap fossil fuel inputs).  (Loss of farm species diversity is another major problem, but not appropriate to discuss here).

3.  by serving the industrial, processed food sector (which also requires a lot of cheap fossil fuel inputs).

 

Long story short, agriculture in America has lost its diversity and just about any amount of the local focus it used to have.  It's a real problem, because almost food dollars don't stay local anymore and the economic multiplier effect of keeping a healthy amount of food dollars local is lost.  Talk to people like Brad Masi at Oberlin College about the positive economic effects of keeping more food dollars local.  Even the Governor gets it, that's why he created the Ohio Food Policy Advisory Council.

 

It's subsidized, multinational agribusiness from the US and Europe that's exploiting trade deals (which is driving small farmers off of their land in developing countries.  In Mexico, it has been a significant contributor to illegal immigration, but you won't here any politicians in DC talk about it). 

 

The only way the we can survive energy descent, is to re-diversify and re-localize our economy.  That's Kunstler's main point.  It applies not just to agriculture, but to manufacturing, retail, and every other sector of the economy. 

 

I disagree that Kunstler is too broad, but I tend to be someone who sees the big picture anyway.  He's broad because Peak Oil is really a broad problem.  Cheap oil underpins every sector of economy as it currently exists.  So, when you lose cheap oil, it affects just about everything. 

 

That's ok, though, we can agree to disagree.  Diversity in opinion is helpful to us all. 

 

 

Xenia, Ohio looks pretty darn nice.  West Branch, Iowa and Garden City, Kansas are nice, prosperous small towns I have visited, also.  There is still a huge amount of wealth in this country and a lot of hard working people are doing well.  What does Kunstler expect? 

 

Kunstler has become formulaic in his writing, producing unreferenced word-candy for pessimists.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cd683aa0-4764-11dd-93ca-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1

 

 

IEA warns of tightening oil supplies

By Carola Hoyos in Madrid and Javier Blas in London

 

Published: July 1 2008 13:16 | Last updated: July 1 2008 13:16

 

[KJP: best part of the article is this quote at the end....]

But the IEA warned governments not to blame speculators. It said: “Like alchemists looking for a way to turn basic elements into gold, everyone wants a simplistic explanation for high prices,” bluntly adding: “Often it is a case of political expediency to find a scapegoat for higher prices rather than undertake serious analysis or perhaps confront difficult decisions.”

Xenia, Ohio looks pretty darn nice.  West Branch, Iowa and Garden City, Kansas are nice, prosperous small towns I have visited, also.  There is still a huge amount of wealth in this country and a lot of hard working people are doing well.  What does Kunstler expect? 

 

Kunstler has become formulaic in his writing, producing unreferenced word-candy for pessimists.

 

You ignored the main points of my post and just listed a few small towns that are doing well.  I never said they were all doing poorly.  I just said I've personally seen a lot in Ohio and elsewhere with dead or dying downtowns and that's indicative of certain economic problems in rural areas-- which are very real in many places. 

 

Personally, I think Kunstler is too arrogant for his own good, but you asked what does he expect.  What he expects is clear in his writings and rantings, which are his viewpoint on where things are headed. 

 

Like it or not, a lot of what he has said since he published The Long Emergency appears to be bearing out.  You only need to follow sites like EnergyBulletin.net--which is a clearinghouse for news and articles from the mainstream media, blogs, foreign media, and other places about Peak Oil and related issues-- to see this. 

 

Yeah, he's a pessimist, but explain to me how that diminishes how things are currently playing out in the real world?  He may not always reference things in his writings (which are mostly opinion), but like it or not, he's been right so far on many points.  Here are a few examples:

 

1.  He's tried to explain how it's a problem that most of our economy is based on finance and not producing enough things of value.  Read Kevin Phillips' books.  He has repeatedly provided well referenced pieces about this, why this is true and why it's a very serious problem for America, and how public and private debt, which is currently 350% of GDP (the highest ever in our history, including 1929), is catching up with us and will overtake us. 

 

2.  There has been a slew of articles across the country recently in newspapers and magazines about how high gas prices are affecting real estate values in suburbia and exurbia, how long commutes from these areas under high gas prices are hurting people who live there, how vacant homes in some suburban areas are becoming magnets for crime and vandalism, and how all this is  beginning to reverse America's 60-year trend toward car-dependent development.  Kunstler has long predicted how he thinks suburban areas are going to suffer.  Well, they are beginning to suffer now in some areas around the country.  We only need to wait and see now if they are going to suffer as badly as he thinks or to a lesser degree. 

 

3.  Articles have cropped up in recent months about how more people than ever in the Northeast were having to choose between heating their homes this past winter or buying food, how more malnourished kids than in years past were showing up at doctors' offices-- including even a few with the swollen bellies long associated with famines in Africa.  The warnings and concerns about the upcoming heating season in the Northeast states are becoming more strident.  States like Vermont are being forced to develop plans for heating centers and find other ways to help people heat their homes because there isn't enough money available in the heating assistance programs.  Tom Whipple has suggested the possibility of heating oil shortages this winter, but we'll have to wait and see on that. 

 

4.  We have a whole thread here on airline industry woes with article about how high fuel prices are killing a good portion of the industry. 

 

5.  Look at KJP's post above about IEA warnings about oil supplies and the quote about scapegoating.  We're still largely in collective denial.  We're looking for scapegoats for high oil prices rather than being realistic and taking steps to change our lifestyle and politicians in DC remain openly clueless at best or deliberately evasive on the subject at worst. 

 

All of the above and more are among the things Kunstler has been ranting about.  I agree he's repetitive, but I think that's because reality still isn't sinking in with a lot of Americans.  Besides, repetition only diminishes the message if reality turns out to be different.  What I think actually does diminish his message more than anything is his arrogance, but again, so far things appear to be playing out as he has been predicting. 

By the way, in case I forget to say this tomorrow, I hope everyone has a...

 

Happy Oil-Dependence Day!

 

I'm going to do my patriotic duty tomorrow and walk on America's sidewalks, ride my American-made bicycle and take public transit driven by Americans (instead of driving my Korean-made car fueled two-thirds by imported oil).

Yes, and I plan to ride to Cleveland on the Hound and will use local transit to get to the bus terminal in Columbus. It's good to be car-free!

Dumb question but...

 

Why do these large vehicles use diesel as opposed to gas?

At 5:30 tonight in Council Chambers (2nd floor hearing room), Councilwoman O'Shaughnessy will be hosting the 2nd of 4 public meetings about regional transportation goals and plans.  Chester Jourdan of MORPC will be the main speaker. I also understand that an OSU professor with knowledge of Peak Oil will also be there.

 

Sorry for the late notice!

Dumb question but...

 

Why do these large vehicles use diesel as opposed to gas?

 

Not a dumb question at all. I don't have an answer.

I believe diesel is lower maintenance (cheaper and longer lasting engines), give better low rpm torque (necessary for hauling and getting heavy vehicles rolling), and was of course less expensive till recently.

ignoring cost (big ignore), all other things equal, diesel is more efficient.

All oil fields endure peaks and declines in production, just as entire nations do, and just as the entire world will. The only question for the world peak is when (now?) and how steep will the decline be. If Cantarell is any indication, steep is the answer. We may not be able to reduce oil consumption globally fast enough to avoid severe economic hardship....

 

http://d2cft.volantis.net/d2c/0.0?feed-article-id=0bb1abf8-4c78-11dd-96bb-000077b07658

 

Output plummets at huge Mexican oilfield

By Adam Thomson in Mexico City

July 8, 2008 12:35:00 AM

 

Production at Mexico's Cantarell oil complex, one of the world's largest, has plummeted by a third in the past year, an indication the country could lose self-sufficiency in oil in the medium term.

 

Average daily production dropped to slightly more than 1m barrels a day in May compared with more than 1.6m b/d in the same month last year, according to the energy ministry.

 

Mexico's total oil production fell about 10 per cent in the past 12 months to 2.79m b/d in May. That was only marginally above April's output, which was the lowest in a decade.

A sun oven? Isn't that taking the whole concept that us=fail a little to the extreme?

Ugh...first tips on how to "not get sunburned" or "staying safe on the road" from the local media...and NOW?

 

Tips on preparing for the decline in oil supplies...screw those condescending turds!

How is it condescending?

 

I think the sun oven is a cool idea (no pun intended).

It's a cool idea, except since we'll all be living in high-rise apartments along Euclid, only those with balconies facing the right direction can use them effectively...

Unless you catch a reflection off another building.  :-D