April 16, 200718 yr A few weeks ago, Matthew Simmons was interviewed on MSNBC. He said he thought there might be a possibility of gasoline shortages this summer. Simmons has made a successful career for himself by knowing what's going on in the oil business. We'll see what happens, though. I have read that US inventories are down a bit, even after the seasonal adjustment for refinery maintenance is factored in.
April 16, 200718 yr The current national pump price is already way above the EIA's forecast summer average of $2.81 a gallon, and the peak driving period is still to come. The EIA hasn't been known for accuracy the past few years.
April 17, 200718 yr the eia has become pretty much detatched from all reality. They have the scientific rigor of scientists employed by the tobacco industry.
April 17, 200718 yr I think demand destruction starts happening around $3. Though the wild card is a gulf coast hurricane. That might be the only way we flirt with high-$3 gas this year. a) $3.27 b) $84 c) we've already seen the lowest d) $2.68
April 17, 200718 yr Looks like we're flirting with $3 gas now, at least in Ohio. In California and some other states, it's already $3 plus. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
April 17, 200718 yr Here's the graph I remember getting that from. Should be a good test of the "psychological barrier" of $3 pretty soon. We've got record high demand AND $3 gas in the run up to driving season.
April 17, 200718 yr we are just so tight on the margins, almost any loss of production drops us below the level needed for supply. Can anyone remeber during the late 80s or 90s (aside from gulf war) when a single pipeline going offline would significantly move the global price of oil? Demand destruction is going to be an issue, but of you average out that line it is still overall growth on the year.
April 17, 200718 yr Lets make some predictions for the new year and see who was closest this time next year. 1) highest price of a gallon of gas for one week in 2007 (US average) 2) highest price for a barrell of light sweet crude for 2007 3) lowest price of a gallon of gas 2007 4) the exact price of gas on december 13, 2007 all prices are in US$, all gas prices are for 87 octane (whatever is cheapest at a legitimate gas station, don't count Costco, Sams Club or Kroger Fuels or whoever offers discount shopper rates) 1: $2.85 2: $73.50 3: $1.60 4: $1.85 Already missed #1 WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- Soaring U.S. retail gasoline prices show no signs of easing, jumping another 7.4 cents over the last week to an average $2.88 a gallon, the government said Monday. Damn, at least my fantasy baseball team is in first place. :)
April 17, 200718 yr I think demand destruction starts happening around $3. I'm thinking the same thing. Last summer, at least where I live, retailers seemed to try for as long as they could to keep from posting over $2.999 for 87 octane. I remember, the price per barrel kept inching up, but the price stayed at $2.999 for a while. We briefly had prices over $3.00, but it didn't last long. Now,we're entering the summer driving season 11 cents higher than at this point last year.
April 18, 200718 yr ^^ I can tell ya in VA we had regular gas hover around $3.10/gal last summer for about 3 weeks, and I'd say it was above $3 for about 5 weeks total. DC (which taxes gas pretty heavily) had alot of stations selling regular for $3.50+ for a good 2-3 week period, and was selling above $3 for at least 3 months. I don't know where the demand destruction is around here, but looking at the lines of SUV's lining up at the gas stations last summer it ain't $3. Maybe $4...who knows.
April 19, 200718 yr KJP, I couldn't help but smile when I saw your rendition of a post-peak oil downtown. I have often imagined/visualized the same scenario; not being as computer-literate as you, I traced over a copy of downtown complete with my idea of what a fully developed Burke (and Scranton peninsula) might look like 20-30 years from now (After downtown's existing vacant parcels have been built out, of course). On the same topic, Gavster and I agree that the RTA's "bus rapid transit" is going to look awfully short-sighted and ill-conceived in the near future. Light rail! Light rail! Light rail! The rest of 2007 is going to be awfully interesting; I believe the American public is going to get their first real taste of what "peak-oil" means and the economic consequences of it. Our "happy motoring utopia" (kunstler) is in for a huge wake-up call.
April 19, 200718 yr Thanks. Just remember, when you chant "light rail" -- be sure to add the pre-fix "Electric light rail!" "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
April 19, 200718 yr The peak oil crisis: Have the t roubles begu n? By Tom Whipple In recent years, numerous books have been written about life after world oil production peaks. Most depict radical change, as oil-powered transportation, suburban living, and large-scale food production and distribution wither. The truth is nobody really has a good idea about what is going to happen. The world has never been to peak oil before. There are many complicating factors -- rates of oil depletion and production, the state of the world’s economy, and the gap between rich and poor nations to name a few. Making a meaningful projection of what life will be like five, ten, or 20 years from now is, as usual, fraught with uncertainties. Article archived at : http://www.energybulletin.net/newswire.php?id=28811 Original article : http://www.fcnp.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1154&Itemid=33
April 21, 200718 yr http://www.cleveland.com/business/plaindealer/index.ssf?/base/business-1/1177145233204160.xml&coll=2 Plant to pump out biodiesel Flats operation should mean cheaper source of cleaner-burning fuel Saturday, April 21, 2007 Peter Krouse Plain Dealer Reporter Biodiesel production is coming to Cleveland, which should mean a greater supply of the cleaner-burning fuel and a cheaper price. The biodiesel, in this case derived from soybean oil, will be made commercially in the Flats, ensuring a steady supply to local customers. Center Alternative Energy Co., a subsidiary of St. Louis-based Center Oil Co., has built a plant at its sister company's storage terminal on Mahoning Avenue along the Cuyahoga River. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
April 21, 200718 yr http://www.cleveland.com/business/plaindealer/index.ssf?/base/business-1/1177145233204160.xml&coll=2 The city supported Center Alternative Energy's plan to put a biodiesel plant in the Flats, Watterson said. That's the best part of the article for me. I wonder where actually it will go??
April 21, 200718 yr It's already built. See this paragraph: Center Alternative Energy Co., a subsidiary of St. Louis-based Center Oil Co., has built a plant at its sister company's storage terminal on Mahoning Avenue along the Cuyahoga River. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
April 21, 200718 yr Public Transportation Helps Improve the Environment -- Transit riders make a difference for the environment News Release April 19, 2007 Virginia Miller 202-496-4816 [email protected] “Want to help the environment? Ride public transportation.” That’s the message the American Public Transportation Association (APTA) wants the public to know for this year’s Earth Day on Sunday, April 22. Caring about the environment on Earth Day is important, but people can do things every day of the year to contribute to a better environment,” said APTA President William W. Millar. “Taking public transportation is one thing that millions of Americans do and can do on a regular basis to help improve the environment.” America’s public transportation systems can play a vital role in creating a healthier nation. Providing significant environmental benefits – by reducing smog-producing pollutants and greenhouse gases – public transportation is helping to meet national air quality standards. Public transportation produces about half as much carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx), per passenger mile, as private vehicles. http://www.apta.com/media/releases/070419_environment.cfm
April 22, 200718 yr http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/07112/779770-109.stm Sunday Forum: Prep for peak oil Pittsburgh should follow Portland's example and get ready for the end of the fossil-fuel era, advise DAN BEDNARZ and KEN SMAIL Sunday, April 22, 2007 What issues are critical to Pittsburgh's future -- now that we've kept the Penguins? Merging county and city governments? Economic development? Shedding the "Smoky City" brand? Improved ethnic relations? Equality of opportunity? Transportation infrastructure? Innovations at universities and medical centers? All of the above? Unfortunately, Pittsburghers would not place "energy preparedness" on this list, as Portland, Oregon, recently did. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
April 25, 200718 yr Big Oil's money machine Profits keep on rolling, though maybe not as robust as quarters past. Will some cash flow back to you and me? By Steve Hargreaves, CNNMoney.com staff writer April 24 2007: 2:57 PM EDT NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Back up the truck - the one to collect billions in cash. Oil company earnings are on tap. To be sure, oil and natural gas prices have fallen from record levels. Profits at some big oil companies may fall from a year ago. And a record-breaking quarter isn't likely. But make no mistake, with energy prices still relatively high and gasoline near $3 a gallon nationwide, oil companies are expected to post profits that are fat. When the nation's three biggest oil companies - Exxon Mobil (Charts, Fortune 500), Chevron (Charts, Fortune 500) and ConocoPhillips (Charts, Fortune 500) - report results later this week, the numbers could again be staggering. In 2006, the three companies earned nearly as much as the other seven companies in the top 10 on the Fortune 500. Find this article at: http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/24/news/companies/oil_profits/index.htm?cnn=yes
April 26, 200718 yr Watch out: Here comes $4 gasoline Prices were supposed to peak below $3 a gallon, but refinery problems, strong demand could push them much higher. By Steve Hargreaves, CNNMoney.com staff writer April 26 2007: 5:59 AM EDT NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Gasoline prices, already above $3 a gallon in some states, could charge higher this summer and hit $4 a gallon in some locations, according to one industry expert. Pump prices were supposed to peak below $3 a gallon this May, then drop off before the summer driving season got into full swing, according to the Energy Department's price forecast. Well, we're not even out of April yet, and the nationwide average price for a gallon of unleaded regular has hit $2.87. Find this article at: http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/17/news/economy/refineries/index.htm
April 26, 200718 yr What these articles fail to mention is that Saudi Arabia has barely been maintaining production levels by selling more and more heavy oils which most of our refineries can't process. Refined gasoline imports have risen as a result. Also, consider the statement that when oil prices were low, there was no incentive to expand refinery capacity, now they are behind in adding capacity. It didn't take long for prices to rise as the supply and demand curves got closer and closer together. This just shows that "the market" is not effective at responding in time to some long term, systemic resouce issues. "The Market" doesn't begin to respond until such problems become manifest and prices have already changed.
April 26, 200718 yr I think it will reach $4.19 for regular. At least I hope it will. Driving is for suburbanites! :-P
April 26, 200718 yr It is strange when i hear the accident lists and traffic reports on the radio, these things rarely affect my daily life, but for a lot of people are important enough to be constantly repeated on the radio.
April 26, 200718 yr ^----"the market" is not effective at responding in time to some long term, systemic resouce issues. It takes 20 years to develop an oil field once it has been discovered. We have gasoline today thanks to work done in 1987. I don't think that's a market failure. On the other hand, I think that the oil industry is well aware that the rate of oil extraction will not increase significantly, and therefore the oil industry is not building any new refineries. Those folks buy oil on long term contracts, and the contracts simply are not coming in. "Saudi Arabia has barely been maintaining production levels by selling more and more heavy oils which most of our refineries can't process." The oil and gas industry is too complex for me to understand. However, as a simplification, there are different grades of oil that are extracted from the ground. "Light Sweet Crude" is good oil; it takes little work to refine. "Heavy Sour' is bad oil; it takes more work to refine it. There is some evidence that production of light sweet crude peaked in 2004. The easy oil was extracted first. 2004 roughly cooresponds to the time when prices started rising. "I think it will reach $4.19 for regular. At least I hope it will. Driving is for suburbanites!" Be careful what you wish for!
April 27, 200718 yr BP in Chagrin Falls is first in Cleveland area to break $2.999 barrier - tonight's price $3.099 per www.clevelandgasprices.com
April 27, 200718 yr http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070427/NEWS11/704270353/-1/NEWS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Article published April 27, 2007 Gas-price spike to near $3 fuels frustration of area motorists Industry spokesmen place blame on high demand, global instability By CLYDE HUGHES BLADE STAFF WRITER Laura Funka looked at the price on the gas pump at the Shell True North convenience store in downtown Toledo yesterday afternoon in disbelief. Ms. Funka, 43, who works at Mitchell Law LLC downtown, noticed that the price of gasoline had jumped 30 cents since Wednesday. "It makes me wish I didn't have this," said Ms. Funka, pointing to her sport utility vehicle. "What can you do? All this will do is hurt small businesses. We have to drive, but we'll have to cut out other things, like dry cleaning."
April 27, 200718 yr Volume! Lots of thirsty SUVs "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
April 29, 200718 yr T-Boone is talking again, and Forbes again proves he knows a lot less about oil supply issues than he does about selling magazines. ____________ http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/24/news/economy/bc.energy.boone.oil.reut/index.htm?postversion=2007042418 Pickens: $80 a barrel this year Legendary oilman, investor predicts high price will begin to kill demand. April 24 2007: 6:00 PM EDT BEVERLY HILLS, Calif. (Reuters) -- Legendary oilman T. Boone Pickens said Tuesday that global demand will outstrip supply in the fourth quarter of this year, leading U.S. oil prices to rise to $80 or more a barrel. Pickens would not predict how high beyond $80 oil would go this year or in 2008 but said he was interested to see how long $80 oil will need to be sustained to lessen demand. "This year we'll go back at the $78," Pickens told Reuters on the sidelines of The Milken Institute Global Conference at the Beverly Hills Hilton. "And you'll see $80. When you're at $78, you're right at $80. How high will it go beyond $80? I don't know. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
May 2, 200718 yr http://www.cleantechblog.com/2007/04/whats-up-with-conocophillips.html Monday, April 23, 2007 What's Up with ConocoPhillips? by Richard T. Stuebi On the clean-tech front, ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) seems to be striving to take the lead among U.S. oil companies. In just the last two few weeks, COP has made two announcements of significance. * First, COP unveiled a partnership with Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN) to produce biodiesel from animal fats (press release). * Second, COP joined the U.S. Climate Action Partnership, thereby becoming the first U.S. oil company to declare its support for federal limitations on greenhouse gas emissions to combat climate change (press release). ConocoPhillips is not yet in the league of Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and General Electric (NYSE: GE) as major players that are driving environmental improvement on a mass-scale through the aggressive pursuit of capitalism across their core businesses. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
May 3, 200718 yr http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070503/NEWS11/705030426 -- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Article published May 3, 2007 Gas zooms past $3 a gallon; record prices blamed on refinery outages, inventory By DAVID PATCH BLADE STAFF WRITER Sticker shock at Toledo-area gasoline pumps put another hit on motorists yesterday as prices shot up to about $3.20 a gallon for regular-grade fuel at many outlets, a 20-cent increase on top of recent jumps that had put prices on the verge of $3. “It’s a lot. I can’t believe how much it went up just from [Tuesday],” said Char Skellie, of Maumee, while she fueled up at a Speedway station on Airport Highway at Perrysburg-Holland Road in Springfield Township, where the regular price early yesterday afternoon was $3.199. At least one area filling station, a Kroger outlet at Jackman and Laskey roads, posted a $3.219 price yesterday afternoon, but the $3.199 mark seemed to be where many were settling.
May 3, 200718 yr The low-cost gas station in front of where I work just hit $3.20 today. I found this at www.peakoil.com .... ___________________________ My fellow Americans are at it once again, blaming everybody but themselves for rising gas prices: The NY Daily News (http://www.nydailynews.com/news/2007/05/03/2007-05-03_tanks_for_nothing_dc_bigs.html) wrote: It found 72% of motorists expect to be paying more than $3.50 a gallon in the next few months, 83% suspect illegal price gouging - and the huge majority want it stopped. "Americans are fed up with skyrocketing gasoline prices and they want action," said Pam Solo, president of the Civil Society Institute, which questioned more than 1,000 motorists. ----- "These survey findings should send a real jolt through the corridors of the White House and the halls of Congress," Solo said. Researchers found drivers sick of dependence on Middle Eastern oil, government reluctance to increase fuel efficiency requirements and oil companies' empty promises about green energy. The press release from Civil Society Institute is here (http://www.40mpg.org/getinf/050207release.cfm) and the complete survey is here (http://www.40mpg.org/pdfs/050207_CSI_40MPG_gas_price_survey_report.pdf). Something interesting from the complete survey, vis a vis demand destruction: A fair number of Americans say they will be making changes in their spending or leisure travel if gasoline hits $3.50 a gallon. More than half (51%) say they will definitely or probably cut back on other spending and 46% say they will cut back on summer or end of year holiday travel if this happens. Nearly three in 10 (29%) say they would definitely or probably buy a hybrid or fuel-efficient car in response to $3.50 gasoline. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
May 3, 200718 yr But, given the above results, will these same folks who were polled e-mail or phone their Member of Congress or Senator to support more and better funding for passenger rail and transit? That should have been a question in the poll.
May 3, 200718 yr Of course not. It's all the fault of the oil companies. Get them to act responsibly, and everything will be just fine. I've written a column for next week's paper on that basic theme. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
May 4, 200718 yr KJP.... I hope you'll post the article when it runs. Perhaps it will inspire some letters to the editors. I think we should install mirrors at all gasoline pumps. This way, when people want to see who's to blame (at least in part) for gasoline prices they can recall the line from the old "Pogo" comic strip: "We have met the enemy, and they are us."
May 4, 200718 yr Did you sneak a peak at my column?? I have a line in there that tells Americans to "buy a freakin' mirror." Don't know if they'll keep the "freakin'" in there though! "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
May 5, 200718 yr was digging on gasbuddy.com San fransisco has topped $4./Gallon 1 station has regular unleaded for 4.33
May 5, 200718 yr http://www.energyandcapital.com/articles/military-fuel-renewable/420 The Next 'Greatest Generation' 2007-05-04 By Chris Nelder That's it . . . the Pentagon has officially smelled the coffee on peak oil. They're not talking efficiency improvements or pilot projects anymore. Oh no. Now they're singing a much more plaintive tune: "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
May 5, 200718 yr We're not likely to give up militarism, even if we have to revert to cavalry and infantry charges and horse-drawn, wooden-wheeled, muzzle-loading cannon, and after that, to axes and swords and spears and bows and arrows. Blood battles will be the last vestige of human activity to vanish from the earth. :whip:
May 7, 200718 yr Get ready for $4 gasoline With prices at record high, demand and refining problems could push them much higher. Any relief in sight? By Steve Hargreaves, CNNMoney.com staff writer May 7 2007: 2:29 PM EDT NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- With gas prices near record highs, experts say $4-a-gallon gasoline is just around the corner. "I think it's going to happen," said Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago. "Unless things change dramatically, I think we're going to see $4 a gallon." Already, prices in California average $3.48 a gallon, according to the motorist organization AAA. And one service station in San Francisco was charging $3.95, according to GasBuddy.com, a handy site that lists the cheapest and most expensive gas stations by city and state across the country. Find this article at: http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/07/news/economy/gas_prices/index.htm?cnn=yes
May 8, 200718 yr Cincy-Rise -- Your avatar is awesome. Very appropriate for this thread! "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
May 8, 200718 yr If you really want to get a grip on what the price of gasoline and the other associated costs of operating a motor vehicle are taking out of your budget, check out this commuting costs calculator from the St. Louis Metro Transit System. My 20 mile, daily round-trip to and from work in my fuel-efficient Honda Civic still costs me over $4,400 dollars a year at $3.20 a gallon, plus the cost of parking and wear and tear. Check for yourself. Then start trying to figure out ways to reduce those costs..... it ain't easy if you have few options. http://www.metrostlouis.org/GettingStarted/TryTransit/costofdriving.asp
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