I don't understand why more 18 wheelers aren't hybrids. Even if it costed 20k to convert the engine, it would be cheaper for trucking companies in the long run as much as they spend on gas. Most of those engines can have over a million miles put on them.

I don't understand why rail doesn't carry more freight

Actually, rail is carrying more freight.  In fact, the movement of overseas shipping containers is the single biggest segment of rail freight in this country, surpassing coal just a few years ago for the first time and staying in the #1 position since.  So-called "intermodal" or "double-stack" container trains take many long-haul trucks off the highway.... a 100-car double-stack, container train take 200 trucks off the roadways and hauls all of that freight for a fraction of the fuel burned by those trucks.

 

The problem the railroads face is that they are seeing a huge boom in freight traffic at a time when the nation's (and Ohio's) rail systems have been downsized over the years for a variety of economic reasons that forced the railroads to get rid of marginal or unprofitable rail lines, or take corridors that were once thre or four tracks wide and take it down to two or even a single track. 

 

Unlike highways and aviation, our rail infrastructure (rails, bridges, etc) are not heavily subsidized with by federal or state transportation dollars.  30 states, including O-HI-O, prohibit the spending of gasoline taxes on anything other than highways.

 

So what funds that are availbe to improve rail corridors for freight or passenger use are very limited and usually doled out in small amounts. 

 

Putting more freight or people on the rails is going to take a major shift in federal and state transportation funding policies.

My big fat American gas tax

Should Americans consider a big price hike in an attempt to reduce demand and transfer money from Big Oil to the general public?

By Steve Hargreaves, CNNMoney.com staff writer

May 21 2007: 4:35 PM EDT

 

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- It seems completely counterintuitive: Raise the gasoline tax to help American commuters.

 

Motorists are already paying well over $3 a gallon, and there are signs that it's beginning to cut into demand and hurt consumer spending.

 

But if a big gas tax was levied - like the $1 or $2 tax Europeans have to keep prices permanently over $3 or $4 a gallon - how could that possibly help American consumers?

 

Find this article at:

http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/21/news/international/europe_gas/index.htm?postversion=2007052116?cnn=yes 

 

 

As I walked home last night, I saw regular unleaded gas at $3.49 in Columbus.  It definitely added a little bounce to my step as I walked right by.

EDIT: Double post

http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070524/BUSINESS02/70524006

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Article published May 24, 2007

 

Toledo area delivery services in pricey pinch as gasoline drives up operational costs

 

By HOMER BRICKEY

BLADE SENIOR BUSINESS WRITER

 

 

The high price of gasoline is hurting many area businesses that offer delivery as part of their service.

 

“Gasoline is killing us,” said Barbara Schuster, owner of Ansted-Schuster Florist in Toledo, who recently boosted her minimum delivery charge by 45 cents to $7.95. “A tank of fuel used to cost $25 for a van,” said Ms. Schuster. “Now $75 won’t even fill it.”

 

Becky Pegorsch, owner of Lee Winters Florist in Maumee and Toledo, charges $7.95 and is considering increasing it a dollar more.

It's also unfortunate that people are putting their focus on just the prices at the gas pump.  What the public (and most media) are failing to come to grips with is the impact fuel prices are having on the prices of the goods we consume and services we use.

 

Quoted for Accuracy.

 

I've also been looking at surveys in the past few weeks.  Some people aren't even willing to give up gasoline until it hits amounts like $7.00 to $8.00+ a gallon.  /boggled.

 

 

That's why I am both amused and sick of pundits/media/so-called "experts" talking about the "tipping point" where people will begin to use less gasoline.  The falsehood about it is that gasoline prices spike & fall in a stair-step pattern.... people get used to a particular price level .... the price will go up or down a few cents over a few months.... then it will fall several cents per gallon..... spike back up sharply (as it just did).... and on and on and on.

 

And yet our national consumption of gasoline continues almost unabated.  And the biggest reason for that is that our national transportation policy still favors highways and motor vehicles and puts little or no resources into creating transportation options for consumers: rail, local mass transit, bike, pedestrian, waterways, etc.  The only real impact on prices will come when we start using less gasoline because we have other options to always have to grab the car keys.

I don't understand why more 18 wheelers aren't hybrids. Even if it costed 20k to convert the engine ...

 

The demands on truck drivelines for horsepower and torque, and for sustained near-capacity operation, are so much higher than the demands on passenger-car drivelines, that I doubt if $20K would even touch it. It takes a lot to start rolling with 40,000 pounds or more and accelerate it at a reasonable pace, and the weight of batteries to do that would be another big factor. Hybrid systems in heavy trucks would have to be very ruggedly-designed, and might still require a lot of maintenance. Existing truck drivelines have been developed with years of experience and continue to evolve, and are extremely reliable. Their energy efficiency is probably pretty close to the maximum now obtainable with rubber-tire-on-asphalt freight transport.

 

As mentioned earlier in this thread by others, a more productive answer is to shift more of the long-haul freight to rail instead of running it over the highways on rubber tires. TOFC (Trailer-on-flatcar) and double-stack container traffic on the railroads is booming, and Norfolk Southern is doing a big business with its Road-Railer service, where highway-ready trailers are attached to railcar wheelsets and made up into trains without the extra weight of flatcars or double-stack cars.

 

Road-Railers simplify the transition between road and rail at both ends of the trip, allowing local pickup and deliverywith the flexibility of trucks, and long-haul with the energy efficiency of rail. NS has a major Road-Railer hub in Fort Wayne, and I've seen as many as 100 trailers roll through town in a single train.

$3.49/gal--Shell gas station, Rt. 161 & Sinclair, Columbus, OH. Any higher?

The prices here in Cincinnati that were $3.49 a couple of days ago, were $3.25 today.

When I was traveling down to Columbus this weekend (on Greyhound, <$41 round trip, 2-3/4 hour travel time), I saw 3.099 at the truck stop just off the highway near Lodi. Anyone know why there'd be such a delta in that small town?

Oh, and on the topic originally at hand, I say we'll peak at 4.299 without a major Gulf hurricane, 5.359 if there is one... the sheeple still haven't learned, they'll continue mindlessly queuing up to the pumps for their mainline dose of petroleum distillates, and the oil companies will charge whatever the market will bear... "free" market, my ass...

http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070530/NEWS33/705300375/-1/NEWS

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Article published May 30, 2007

 

Lucas County offering needy families $200 gasoline cards

Officials hope $1.5M program will help workers keep jobs

 

By MEGHAN GILBERT

BLADE STAFF WRITER

 

 

With gas prices hovering around $3.40 a gallon, Lucas County officials are offering help at the pump - in the form of a $200 gasoline card - for low-income families.

 

And they're hoping the extra gas money will help relieve some financial stress for those local residents.

 

"I hear every day from people in the community that gas prices are killing them - that it's becoming sometimes impossible for people to get to work and have any money left in their take-home pay," Lucas County Commissioner Ben Konop said. "It's going to be a tough summer for people in working families to get by."

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/4852997.html

 

June 1, 2007, 7:17AM

Reliance on foreign gasoline is growing

U.S. refineries are unable to meet surge in demand

 

By BRETT CLANTON

Copyright 2007 Houston Chronicle

 

As domestic refineries hit their limit and gasoline demand continues to rise, oil companies are importing more gasoline from beyond U.S. borders to keep America driving.

 

Gasoline shipped in from abroad now accounts for more than 11 percent of the total gasoline used in the U.S., roughly double the share of imports a decade ago, according to Energy Information Administration data.

 

Importing energy to power the world's biggest economy is nothing new. The U.S. already brings in more than 60 percent of the crude oil it uses to make gasoline, diesel fuel and other products from rubber tires to plastic bags.

 

DUMP THE PUMP DAY

 

Join APTA (American Public Transit Association) in celebrating the Second Annual National Dump the Pump Day on Thursday, June 21, 2007.

 

The day is dedicated to raising awareness that public transportation helps improve the environment and conserve fuel. It also offers the opportunity for people to beat the high price of gasoline and support public transportation as an important travel option that helps reduce our dependence on foreign oil.

 

On June 21, public transportation agencies from coast to coast will join together to ask the public to park their cars and ride public transportation instead.

 

The resources in this online toolkit were developed to assist transit agencies in carrying out National Dump the Pump Day activities.

 

 

Public Transportation Facts for the Second Annual National Dump the Pump Day

 

Public Transportation Ridership:

 

In 2006, Americans took 10.1 billion trips on public transportation - the highest ridership level in 49 years.

 

34 million times each weekday, people board public transportation.

 

From 1995 through 2006, public transportation ridership increased by 30 percent, a growth rate higher than the 12 percent increase in US population and higher than the 24 percent growth in use of the nation's highways over the same period.

 

Energy Conservation - Reducing National Dependence on Foreign Oil:

 

Each year, public transportation use in the U.S. saves 1.4 billion gallons of gasoline. This represents almost 4 million gallons of gasoline per day.

 

Public transportation use saves the equivalent of 300,000 fewer automobile fill-ups every day - 108 million fewer cars filling up annually.

 

Each year, public transportation use saves the equivalent of 34 supertankers of oil, or a supertanker leaving the Middle East every 11 days.

 

Each year, public transportation use saves the equivalent of 140,769 service station tanker truck trips clogging our streets.

 

The typical public transit rider consumes, on average, one half of the oil consumed by an automobile rider.

 

Individual Cost Savings:

 

Public transportation provides an affordable, and for many, necessary alternative to driving.

 

Each year public transportation households save over $1,399 worth of gas.

 

Transit availability can reduce the need for an additional car, a yearly expense of $6,251 in a household budget.

 

The average household spends 18 cents on transportation, and 94 percent of this goes to buying, maintaining and operating cars.

 

Americans living in areas served by public transportation save $18 billion annually in congestion costs.

 

Environmental Conservation:

 

Public transportation use can help reduce pollution and promote cleaner air.

 

Public transportation produces 95 percent less carbon monoxide (CO), 90 percent less in volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and nearly 50 percent less carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx), per passenger mile than private vehicles.

 

Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions represent 82 percent of total U.S. man-made greenhouse emissions.

 

By reducing smog-producing pollutants and greenhouse gases and by conserving ecologically sensitive lands and open spaces -- public transportation is helping to meet national air quality standards.

 

 

Lucas County offering needy families $200 gasoline cards

Officials hope $1.5M program will help workers keep jobs

 

How much public transit would $1.5 million pay for? Oh, I guess 7500 gas cards that will be worthless in about, oh, say four fill-ups.

 

Top notch investment of public funds, guys. Top. Notch.

 

Unfortunately, a lot of jobs are located in suburbs and exurbs where public transit does not go or cannot efficiently go.  If you live in south Toledo and have to commute to the industrial parks of Perrysburg, how are you going to get there by transit? 

 

The chickens are coming home to roost now with respect to our poor land use and transportation policy choices.  And it's only going to get worse. 

I'd be willing to bet all my Giant Eagle gas points (I'm up to $2.60 per gallon) that better than half of these jobs are within a 15 minute walk of a (potential) bus line. Supplement that with connector service to larger exurban employer zones and population corridors, and you've got an actual, sustainable solution to a problem that will only get worse.

 

We're not talking metro Detroit-here; Toledo has a managebly small footprint, assuming leaders and planners are at all interested in managing it.

 

This gas card scheme is at best a band aid, and at worst, a got dampt giveaway to the sprawl cartel.

 

Grr.

http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070603/NEWS11/706030328/-1/NEWS

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Article published June 3, 2007

 

Some in area opt to roll with single vehicle

If car's in use, they bike, walk, or take a bus

 

By JC REINDL

BLADE STAFF WRITER

 

 

In today's world of the three-car garage and the drive-through espresso shop, the notion of getting around Toledo as a one-vehicle family can seem quaint and impractical.

 

Few shopping venues are within walking distance of each other and often involve a trip on an interstate highway. Most other amenities are so spread out that relying on a TARTA bus - the city's only public transportation option - can make just getting there a day's errand.

 

If today's Toledo is built for the convenience of anything, it's the automobile.

5 bucks a gallon to clear the mind

 

By TOM MAST

Star-Tribune staff writer Sunday, June 03, 2007

http://www.casperstartribune.net/articles/2007/06/04/news/

 

AAA projected a slight increase in travel over the Memorial Day weekend, as compared to a year earlier, despite the fact prices for gasoline were near or above record levels in many parts of the country.

 

So despite much grumbling, the price apparently was not high enough to dissuade most would-be travelers from hitting the road. In view of the fact our social structure over the past century has been shaped to a large extent by the automobile, our thirst for gasoline is hardly surprising. But as gasoline prices continue to climb, speculation invariably begins about just what price level will trigger dramatic changes in driving habits and lifestyles...

 

 

i dunno, i see so many more people riding bikes, driving smaller hybrid cars, mopeds, etc in cleveland than they had been 5 years ago... i dont understand how demand could still be going up...

How's the demand going up? Americans are motivated by pure id. If it's shiny enough, I want it no matter the cost, and to suggest otherwise would be an infringement on my freedoms that the terrorists hate so much.

It's easy for some to say on a survey that $10 gas wouldn't make them change their driving habits, but I think that a $130-$250 fill up would be a hell of a lot more convincing than those people think.

thats a really good point.

^Gas stations going "cash-only" would have an impact, too.

Um, I think a lot of people are missing the crucial point here: as an adherent to the "Hubbert's -peak" dogma, as the world supply of oil peaks, not only does it become increasingly expensive; the supply of it necessarily decreases as well. Supply shortages, anyone? I don't care if you're prepared to pay $20/gal for gas; prices will be irrelevant if the gas pumps in your area are dry. (Think OPEC oil embargoes of the 70's) Now, I think we're years away from shortages, (U.S. troops in the Middle East are there for that reason) but peak oil is here and we're seeing the effects right now.

Myself, I've cut unneccessary trips out of my routine and plan on buying a mini cooper instead of the full-size pickup I'd been wanting for a long time. And I'm a carpenter.

I'm trying to educate everyone in my life about peak oil and what they can do to minimize the pain. I'm still amazed at how many people I consider to be educated, bright people have either never heard of this topic or refuse to believe it. And for the last time, ethanol is not the answer!!

*As for cash-only gas stations, dude, you nailed it. Wow, instant pain. I'm not sure our economy could take that kind of hit.

http://www.axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/article_24705.shtml

 

World

The five myths of the transition towards biofuels

By Eric Holtz-Giménez (translation by Siv O'Neall)

Jun 6, 2007, 05:31

 

Summary in English of article from Le Monde Diplomatique:

 

'Les cinq mythes de la transition vers les agrocarburants'

 

 

Biofuels… The word already evokes the image of clean and inexhaustible renewable energy, confidence in technology and a power of progress compatible with the lasting protection of the environment. It allows the industry and politicians, the World Bank, the United Nations and even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to present the fuels made from corn, sugar cane, soya and other cultures as the next step in a smooth transition from the peak of oil production to an energy economy based on renewable resources, which yet has to be defined.

 

The programs are already ambitious. It is anticipated that the fuel coming from biomass will cover 5.75 % of the needs of transportation fuels in 2010 and 20 % in 2020. The United States are aiming at thirty-five billion gallons a year. These goals are vastly higher than the production capacities of the industrialized countries of the Northern hemisphere.  Europe would have to mobilize 70 % of its arable lands to cover its deal of the bargain; the totality of the harvests of corn and soya in the United States would have to be converted to biofuel and biodiesel. A conversion of that order would completely turn upside down the food systems of the nations in the North. That is why the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is interested in the Southern hemisphere to cover their needs.

As for cash-only gas stations, dude, you nailed it. Wow, instant pain. I'm not sure our economy could take that kind of hit.

 

Our economy would collapse if people were required to have actual money?

 

Wow. That's the most terrifying thing I've ever read---and I typed it!

 

Incidentally, I gave up credit cards a year and a half ago, and it's been white-knuckle all the way. But a good kind of white-knuckle...

I'm more concerned about our credit card-financed economy. The moment the Chinese have a strong enough political disagreement with the US to cause them to stop buying our Treasury securities, watch our inflation AND interest rates go through the roof and our credit-card economy to fall through the floor.

 

Of course, rising energy prices, higher costs of shipping foreign-bought goods, the growth of food prices with our wistful desire for more ethanol and inflationary pressures from all of these factors are strong enough to undermine America's credit-card economy.

 

I don't even want to think about what would happen if both of those paragraphs came to be. This country has made itself so vulnerable...

The above is why I have stripped down my finances by paying off ALL of my debts and selling the house I once owned in the 'burbs. Time to hunker down and be ready for what happens, people!

BuckeyeB, I'm right there with you man. Time to focus on paying off debt and get some  cash invested (alternative energy, railroads, precious metals, etc.) A really good book on this is by Stephen Leeb "The Coming Economic Collapse". Some sound investment advice regarding the peak oil crisis to come.

KJP, while I agree totally with you about the vulnerability of our easy-credit society, the Chinese and U.S. are connected at the hip on this. Any financial crisis here means we will be buying a lot less from the Chinese Army sweatshops, er, I mean , well that's exactly what I mean. The Chinese, for all their robust economic growth, have a lot of internal issues that are far from being resolved (massive poverty in the nation's interior, pollution, resource shortages, basic human rights). Any prolonged recession/crisis here resulting in fewer goods being bought from them would be disastrous there. Any slowdown in growth there and they're looking at some serious unemployment #'s. Look what rising gas prices have done to Wal-mart's sales recently. Wal-mart is China's #1 trading partner. That's just a taste. It's too bad the Chinese are just starting to get their economy modernized at the tail-end of the oil era. I shudder to think what could happen there in the aftermath of peak oil. They're more screwed than we are.

Another good book on this topic is "The Empty Tank" by Jeff Leggett, a former geologist for BP and now an alternative energy investor and greenpeace member.

Depends on what factors you're looking at with respect to which nation (US or China) will be hurt most in the post-peak oil era. US is far more dependent on oil than any nation on Earth, and much of that is for intra-urban transport. China, on the other hand, is dependent on US consumers for its goods. If the purchasing power of the average Chinese citizen rises enough before the depths of the post-peak oil era are reached, then China might fare better than the US. Chinese cities are still more densely developed and pedestrian/bicycle/transit oriented than all US cities save for maybe New York City, San Francisco, etc. But the US could do OK if it relocalizes the manufacturing and agricultural sectors of its economy, develops a sustainable, renewable fuel source(s), reorders its urban land use patterns and vastly expands its mass transit systems and railways. The "to-do" checklist appears longer for the US than it does for China.

 

And unless China tries to take back Taiwan by force or the US gets into a resource war with China, I don't see China pulling the debt rug out from under the US either.

^^I agree with pretty much all of that. I would say that the U.S. is absolutely more dependent on oil than the chinese, and our economy would pretty much crash, because we have a much greater distance to fall, if you will. The chinese on the other hand, in the race to "westernize" their economy have so ravaged their natural landscape and polluted their air/water that if/when the oil bubble bursts, they're looking at the same problems we are, except they've got 1 billion people to contend with. Our crash will be harder because we so much more to lose than the chinese, but in the long run I know I'd rather be here than there.

*KJP, on a side note, have you read Dmitry Orlov's "Closing The Collapse Gap"? It's an excellent little article comparing the collapse of the USSR and the US' potential collapse due to peak oil and its aftermath. Wickedly witty and not so far-fetched anymore, I think.

Haven't seen the article. Can you post it or the link?

I don't know how to post the direct link on here, but if you go to JH Kunstler's website (www.kunstler.com) he's got a link to it there. It was originally published in the Energy Bulletin by a Russian ex-pat. Lemme know what you think.

 

Myself, I've cut unneccessary trips out of my routine and plan on buying a mini cooper instead of the full-size pickup I'd been wanting for a long time.

 

I had the impression that mini coopers require premium gasoline. Not sure about that, though.

I believe they do

^Hmmm.....I'm going to have to look into that further.

Thieves drill gas tanks, drain fuel

Thursday,  June 14, 2007 3:49 AM

By John Futty

THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH

 

Locks on gas caps and pay-before-you-pump policies at gas stations have made it tough on fuel thieves.

 

That might be why crooks are tapping into gas tanks and fuel lines with drills and hacksaws, police say.

 

In Westerville, police took reports of 14 vehicles whose gas tanks were punctured last month, Lt. Tracy Myers said.

 

http://dispatch.com/dispatch/content/local_news/stories/2007/06/14/gastanks.ART_ART_06-14-07_B1_PU711K3.html

"A World Without Oil" -- http://news.independent.co.uk/sci_tech/article2656034.ece

From the Independent:

 

http://news.independent.co.uk/sci_tech/article2656034.ece

 

World oil supplies are set to run out faster than expected, warn scientists

Scientists challenge major review of global reserves and warn that supplies will start to run out in four years' time

By Daniel Howden

Published: 14 June 2007

 

Scientists have criticised a major review of the world's remaining oil reserves, warning that the end of oil is coming sooner than governments and oil companies are prepared to admit.

 

BP's Statistical Review of World Energy, published yesterday, appears to show that the world still has enough "proven" reserves to provide 40 years of consumption at current rates. The assessment, based on officially reported figures, has once again pushed back the estimate of when the world will run dry.

 

However, scientists led by the London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, say that global production of oil is set to peak in the next four years before entering a steepening decline which will have massive consequences for the world economy and the way that we live our lives.

^Good article, pretty much a summary of what's been happening around the globe and the issues we are facing. It's still disturbing that the brunt of the reporting on peak oil is being done by overseas outlets. We here in the U.S. use the most, have the most to lose as a result, yet for the most part remain blissfully unaware of the trainwreck we're headed for or just refuse to believe that it's gonna happen. ("Look at Y2K" is a favorite refrain when I try to discuss the importance of this with other people/friends) or "The market will adjust accordingly" with nary a bump in our way of life. Ok, whatever. But I would be selling any suburban property and SUV's right now while they still have some value.

I reccomended this before, here's the direct link:

 

Dmitry Orlov, "Closing the Collapse Gap" http://energybulletin.net/23259.html

 

Also, I just got done reading "Deep Economy: The Wealth of Communities and the Durable Future" by Bill McKibben. An easy, insightful read on sustainable economies/communities in a world of scarce energy supplies and changing climate. Pertinent and hopeful.

I'm working on "Twilight in the Desert" by Matthew Simmons right now.

A old article I wrote for The Cincinnati Post:

 

http://www.cincypost.com/2004/04/21/john042104.html

An excellent article that demonstrates the problem in lay-terms for the average citizen.

 

I recently ran across an across an article which suggested that those of us who warn of peak oil should first demonstrate that there are no alternatives that can sufficiently fill the oil-void post-peak. Then we proceed with advocating the solutions -- more energy efficient cars, increased recycling of plastic products, more compact metro-area land use patterns and increased investment in rail/transit, particularly using electric power.

Note the stats for Ohio cities....

__________________

 

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19211091/

 

Costs don’t stop drivers from going it alone

More than ever commute solo as suburbanites can’t change habits

 

WASHINGTON - More people than ever are driving alone to work as the nation's commuters balk at carpools and mass transit.

 

Regardless of fuel prices, housing and work patterns make it hard for suburban commuters to change their gas-guzzling ways.

 

From 2000 to 2005, the share of people driving alone to work increased slightly to 77 percent, according to a Census Bureau report Wednesday. Carpooling dropped and the share of commuters using public transportation stayed the same.

From the Intelligence Daily:

 

http://www.inteldaily.com/

The Pentagon v. peak oil

Fri, 15 Jun 2007 06:31:00

by Michael T. Klare (http://www.pacificfreepress.com/content/view/1314/81/)

 

Sixteen gallons of oil. That's how much the average American soldier in Iraq and Afghanistan consumes on a daily basis -- either directly, through the use of Humvees, tanks, trucks, and helicopters, or indirectly, by calling in air strikes. Multiply this figure by 162,000 soldiers in Iraq, 24,000 in Afghanistan, and 30,000 in the surrounding region (including sailors aboard U.S. warships in the Persian Gulf) and you arrive at approximately 3.5 million gallons of oil: the daily petroleum tab for U.S. combat operations in the Middle East war zone.

 

Multiply that daily tab by 365 and you get 1.3 billion gallons: the estimated annual oil expenditure for U.S. combat operations in Southwest Asia. That's greater than the total annual oil usage of Bangladesh, population 150 million -- and yet it's a gross underestimate of the Pentagon's wartime consumption.