^I figured the transit use #'s for the bigger cities (NYC,etc) would be significantly higher!

I wonder if the transit use number includes walking, I would guess not.

BUSINESS WEEK

 

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_26/b4040074.htm?campaign_id=rss_magzn

From Peak Oil To Dark Age?

Oil output has stalled, and it's not clear the capacity exists to raise production

 

With global oil production virtually stalled in recent years, controversial predictions that the world is fast approaching maximum petroleum output are looking a bit less controversial. At first blush, those concerned about global warming should be delighted. After all, what better way to prod the move toward carbon-free, climate-friendly alternative energy?

 

But climate change activists have nothing to cheer about. The U.S. is completely unprepared for peak oil, as it's called, and the wrenching adjustments it would entail could easily accelerate global warming as nations turn to coal (see BusinessWeek.com, 4/19/07, "Rx for Earth: Sooner Not Later"). Moreover, regardless of the implications for climate change, peak oil represents a mortal threat to the U.S. economy.

Global warming will likely have an adverse effect on availability of hydropower. Much of the water that powers large hydropower facilities comes from glaciers, and many of the world's major glacial ice fields are diminishing at an alarming rate.

 

Even hydropower installations that don't depend on glacial meltwater could find themselves in trouble as precipitation patterns change and agricultural diversion increases.

 

Too, oil supplies could be fall off at an accelerated pace both as direct and indirect results of resource wars. War always produces collateral damage to infrastructure, and religious militants who see oil and the conflicts over it as leading causes of the corruption of their cultures and intrusion by westerners could deliberately damage or destroy their own countries' production facilities in an effort to destabilize established local governments and seize power.

 

It's not possible to sustain increasing population with increasing per-capita needs, wants and desires. Either population or standard of living has to decline, and its quite likely that a tipping point will abruptly cause both to begin to decrease and continue to fall at a catastrophic rate until something less than sustainable levels are reached.

It doesn't. It has its own separate category. As does bicycling.

Biting the bullet on gasoline use

From a recent letter to the editor:

Cincinnati Enquirer

 

Recent announcements by researchers indicate we may be close to a scientific breakthrough that changes the technology and economics behind fuel production. But the only way any of these "magic bullet" technologies will get a chance to become economically viable and solve our energy/environmental needs is if we make a serious effort to discourage the use of gasoline. In a market economy, this means making it - or allowing it to become - more expensive.

 

That's why a campaign by 17 Democratic governors, including Ohio's Ted Strickland, for Washington to lower gas taxes is not only pandering to spoiled consumers, it's wrong in terms of energy policy. Cleveland Foundation energy expert Richard Stuebi, quoted in an AP story about the governors, argues the tax should increase by 50 cents a gallon a year for five years, then a dollar a year after that. A little drastic, but the right idea.

 

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070614/EDIT01/706140303/1090

^---- The United States consumption of oil per capita peaked around 1980. No one seems to have noticed that we are "poorer" now than we were in 1970.

 

 

^ a lot of that had to do with efficiency and conservation efforts at the time. 

Jun 17, 7:26 PM EDT

Oil Industry Scales Back Refinery Plans

By H. JOSEF HEBERT

Associated Press Writer

 

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A push from Congress and the White House for huge increases in biofuels, such as ethanol, is prompting the oil industry to scale back its plans for refinery expansions. That could keep gasoline prices high, possibly for years to come.

 

With President Bush calling for a 20 percent drop in gasoline use and the Senate now debating legislation for huge increases in ethanol production, oil companies see growing uncertainty about future gasoline demand and little need to expand refineries or build new ones.

 

Oil industry executives no longer believe there will be the demand for gasoline over the next decade to warrant the billions of dollars in refinery expansions - as much as 10 percent increase in new refining capacity - they anticipated as recently as a year ago.

 

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/ETHANOL_REFINERIES?SITE=OHCOL&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

^ Yep.  If you look at the cost of gasoline as a function of GDP, it's cheaper now than it was in the 70's.  That just means that we're more efficienct in our use of energy and the economy is still doing pretty well.

Wow. Just wow. The continuing short-sightedness of our federal government regarding peak oil and our future energy supply leaves me more pessimistic every day. Did anyone else notice oil hit over $69/barrel yesterday? And the dog and pony show we call DC rolls on.....

Senators vote to boost car fuel standards

cnn.com

 

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Senate voted Thursday to increase fuel economy standards to 35 miles per gallon for cars and SUVs, the first significant boost demanded of automakers in nearly 20 years.

 

The agreement was announced at a news conference and then quickly adopted by the Senate without a roll call vote. It scaled back tougher standards already in the Senate's energy bill but was still considered strong enough to have wide support from environmentalists.

 

"It closes the SUV loophole," declared Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-California, referring to current requirements that allow much less stringent fuel efficiency standards for SUVs and pickup trucks than for cars. "This is a victory for the American public."

 

Find this article at:

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/06/21/congress.energy.ap/index.html 

 

June 22, 2007

Senate Adopts an Energy Bill Raising Mileage for Cars

By EDMUND L. ANDREWS

New York Times

 

WASHINGTON, June 21 — The Senate passed a broad energy bill late Thursday that would, among other things, require the first big increase in fuel mileage requirements for passenger cars in more than two decades.

 

The vote, 65 to 27, was a major defeat for car manufacturers, which had fought for a much smaller increase in fuel economy standards and is expected to keep fighting as the House takes up the issue.

 

But Senate Democrats also fell short of their own goals. In a victory for the oil industry, Republican lawmakers successfully blocked a crucial component of the Democratic plan that would have raised taxes on oil companies by about $32 billion and used the money on tax breaks for wind power, solar power, ethanol and other renewable fuels.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/22/us/22energy.html?_r=1&th=&oref=slogin&emc=th&pagewanted=print

I realize the oil majors don't use the word "can't" when it comes to finding more oil, but a little honesty wouldn't hurt either in educating the world and helping it to make preparations for the coming reality...

_______________________________

 

http://www.smartmoney.com/bn/ON/index.cfm?story=ON-20070621-000971-1640

 

Breaking News

Analyst: Oil Majors' Reserves Slipping

|Published: June 21, 2007 4:40 PM

 

HOUSTON (AP)--The world's major oil companies replaced reserves at levels below 100% for the third straight year in 2006, while costs to find and produce the key asset continued to rise, a new analysis shows.

 

Reserve replacements last year, excluding acquisitions and divestitures, were 91%, slightly below the 92% replaced in 2005, according to a report released Thursday by investment bank Bear Stearns & Co.

 

At the same time, the companies' search and development costs rose to $13.63 per barrel of oil equivalent, up 28% from 2005, the report said.

^---- The United States consumption of oil per capita peaked around 1980. No one seems to have noticed that we are "poorer" now than we were in 1970.

 

I'm not sure I buy this outright, but I don't know where this info comes from or how it was computed. Does it include the petroleum content, both as material input and energy consumed in manufacturing, for imported goods? Automobile manufacturing, for instance, consumes huge amounts of energy and a lot of it comes from petroleum and natural gas. Petrochemicals are feedstocks for plastics manufacturing, too.

 

Even if the info is complete and accurate for the U.S., it's not realistic to look at per-capita consumption according to political/geographic entities. Manufacturing, trade, and finance all operate on a global scale, and frightenly, so does military capability. People compete for resources and quality of life on a world-wide scope, and where great disparities exist, great pressures to equalize them will come into play.

I wonder how much of that 90+% reserve replacement is from recategorization of hard to get reserves due to the increase in the price per barrel of oil?  In other words, when the price of oil goes up, known oil reserves can get recategorized from the "contingent resources" category (recoverable but uneconomical) to "proven" or "probable" resources because they become economical to get.

 

It's not like we're discovering any massive new fields.

 

    Rob - Sorry I don't have a source. I am going by memory. I do not know if that number includes consumption by the U.S. military outside of the United States, for example. I think it refers to all liquid petroleum consumed in the United States divided by the population of the United States.

 

    Our oil consumption has been growing, but at a decreasing rate. Our population has been growing faster. Dividing oil consumption, in barrels, by the population gives you a per-capita oil consumption. If I am not mistaken, this number peaked around 1980. If I am not mistaken, it includes all consumption, including industrial energy use and materials feedstock.

 

    It does NOT include use to manufacture products in foreign countries that are sold in the United States. Thus, if China uses a barrel of oil to make and transport plastic toys to the United States, that is not counted. This makes it a bit more complicated now that I think of it, as we import so much.  Oh well.

 

   

Pay Attention to Price, Naysayers Say:

 

http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070620/38895_id.html?.v=1

 

Wednesday June 20, 6:55 am ET

 

"Tim Iacono submits: The folks over at The Oil Drum are a persistent bunch. As the years go by and it continues to look as though Steve Forbes' post-Katrina prediction of $35 oil will forever fail to materialize, the forecasts by the crew at TOD appear increasingly likely to prove more accurate than predictions from most Wall Street types and nearly every big oil company and energy agency."

 

There's graphics in this one, that's why just the first paragraph posted...

 

 

Peak oil crisis: approaching the cliff

 

By Tom Whipple

Last weekend across southern South Dakota the pumps went dry. Gas terminals from Sioux Falls to Yankton to Sioux City were empty. “There is simply not enough fuel coming down the pipeline into the delivery system” said a BP station owner. Eventually the tankers were sent to Nebraska to find gas. A minor glitch in the distribution? Possibly, but more likely a harbinger of more serious problems to come...

 

 

Article archived at :

http://www.energybulletin.net/newswire.php?id=31199

 

Original article :

http://www.fcnp.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1438&Itemid=35

Ohio isn't much better...

 

http://www.douglasdispatch.com/articles/2007/06/23/news/news3.txt

 

Arizona among most vulnerable states to rising gas prices

 

WASHINGTON - A new report by the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) ranks, for the first time, U.S. states based on vulnerability to high gas prices and on policies that reduce that vulnerability while protecting consumers and the environment.

 

Citizens in Arizona spend an average of almost 5 percent of their per capita income on gasoline - that is almost twice as much as much as residents in Connecticut - the least vulnerable state - who spend about 2.5 percent of theirs. Compared to the national state average, Arizona spends 18 percent more. When oil prices go up, families in vulnerable states are hit the hardest.

 

"Filling the tank is a burden nowadays," said Deron Lovaas, energy analyst at NRDC. "The good news is that some states are enacting policies that give consumers vehicle and fuel choices. More states need to do the same. And federal policymakers must also follow suit, by boosting fuel economy standards and supporting renewable fuels."

National report

Ohioans heavily reliant on oil

Sunday,  June 24, 2007 3:52 AM

By Paul Wilson

 

THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH

 

Ohio and oil

 

Ohio ranks among the bottom 10 states in terms of action taken to reduce vulnerability to oil prices, a new report found.

 

41. Ohio

 

Ohio ranked in the middle of the pack in vulnerability to oil-price volatility.

 

29. Ohio

 

Source: Natural Resources Defense Council

 

Ohio hasn't done a good job of reducing its dependence on oil. In fact, it is the 10th worst nationally, according to a study.

 

The Natural Resources Defense Council ranked Ohio 41st among states, saying leaders here haven't taken steps -- such as tax incentives for hybrid car owners and a strong emphasis on public transit -- to lessen Ohio's "vulnerability and to bolster America's security."

Ohio was saved from scoring even worse because it ranked 30th among all states for public transit funding, the report said.

 

And that's a good thing?

 

Oil supply info guru Matthew Simmons covered the subject of which states perform well/bad in a recent speech. As you will see in the first few pages, he ranks Ohio in the top four WORST states when it comes to being an "energy parasite." Not a good thing for our economy as prices keep rising...

 

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Coloardo%20College%20March%205%20to%207%20BW.pdf

 

It does NOT include use to manufacture products in foreign countries that are sold in the United States. Thus, if China uses a barrel of oil to make and transport plastic toys to the United States, that is not counted. This makes it a bit more complicated now that I think of it, as we import so much.  Oh well.

 

I thought that might be the case. The statistic may not testify so much to improvements in U.S. energy efficiency, as to the impact of outsourcing/offshoring so much of the country's industrial base.

All's not well as drilling for natural gas spreads

Looser laws allow more urban wells - and noise

Monday, June 25, 2007

Joe Guillen

Plain Dealer Reporter

 

Drilling for natural gas on city property was a no-brainer for Seven Hills Mayor David Bentkowski.

 

"It's free money," he said. "It's the same old joke - there's gold in them there hills.

 

"Whether it's gold or natural gas, it's cash."

 

http://www.cleveland.com/news/plaindealer/index.ssf?/base/cuyahoga/118276083122630.xml&coll=2

 

 

http://www.slate.com/id/2169124/

 

The Great Corn Con

The Senate's preposterous new ethanol bill.

By Robert Bryce

Posted Tuesday, June 26, 2007, at 3:09 PM ET

 

The ethanol madness continues! Last week, the Senate passed an energy bill mandating the production of 36 billion gallons of ethanol per year by 2022—a sevenfold increase over current levels. Senators congratulated themselves for their environmental foresight. The president, a biofuels advocate, has enthusiastically endorsed the ethanol surge. But it's almost certainly a fantasy, since no one in Washington seems to have thought for five minutes about where or how that much ethanol could be produced.

 

There are two domestic sources for that ethanol in such quantities: corn or cellulose. (Sugar cane is an excellent feedstock for ethanol, but the United States grows relatively small amounts of cane, particularly when compared with Brazil, the world's largest producer.)

Tip: fill your gas tanks in the next 24 hours. Prices will go above $3 per gallon -- how long they stay there is anyone's guess...

________________

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/ce4cd474-2ba6-11dc-b498-000b5df10621.html

 

Oil hits 11-month high above $76

By Javier Blas, Commodities Correspondent, in London

 

Published: July 6 2007 11:00 | Last updated: July 6 2007 11:00

 

Oil prices rose above $76 a barrel on Friday to the highest level in 11 months amid renewed unrest in Nigeria and production cuts by Opec, the oil cartel.

 

Low US petrol inventories ahead of an anticipated surge in demand during the summer holiday season provided additional support.

 

Analysts warned that further rises were likely as the Nigerian militant group responsible for most of the attacks on the oil industry called off a one-month truce. Attacks had cut about 25 per cent of Nigeria’s oil output.

IEA Warns Of Impending Oil, Natural Gas Supply Crunch

 

In a dire forecast, the Paris-based International Energy Agency is warning of an impending crunch in the supply of oil and natural gas needed to power world economic growth in coming years.

 

The IEA is the energy watchdog of the world's 26 most-advanced economies, and its pessimistic assessment is contained its latest annual medium-term forecast to 2012, which was released early Monday.

 

The agency expects oil supply to be tighter in coming years than it had previously forecast, with little prospect of relief except a possible easing should world economic growth falter.

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

http://www.cattlenetwork.com/content.asp?contentid=143047

 

Four years is not a very long time to change our building and transportation habits and increase mass transit. Something tells me the US and a lot of the world is going to have to learn the hard way.

http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070711/NEWS11/707110401/-1/NEWS

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Article published July 11, 2007

 

2 days of fuel hikes pump area prices to $3.259 a gallon

 

By DAVID PATCH

BLADE STAFF WRITER

 

 

After a little more than a month below $3 a gallon for regular, gasoline prices shot skyward again yesterday in the Toledo area, jumping more than a quarter-dollar to $3.259 at many area stations a day after creeping up to just shy of the $3 mark.

 

A second consecutive daily price increase, and the magnitude of the increase involved, distinguished the gasoline spike yesterday and stirred the anger of motorists such as Dawn Moore of Toledo, who railed against the increase while filling up at the Shell station at Monroe and Michigan streets.

Yep. And that's a pretty major statement by the normally conservative IEA!

 

And considering their history of conservatism, there may be reason to believe that a supply crunch could happen sooner than four years.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-oil-falls-as-traders-lock-in-profit-from-recent-gains

Crude supplies fall by 1.4 mln brls in latest week

By Polya Lesova

Last Update: 10:44 AM ET Jul 11, 2007

 

"NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude supplies fell by 1.4 million barrels to 352.6 million barrels for the week ended July 6, the Energy Department said Wednesday. Crude supplies had been expected to rise. Motor gasoline supplies rose by 1.2 million barrels to 205.6 million barrels in the latest week. Distillate supplies rose by 0.8 million barrels to 122.4 million barrels over that period. Refinery activity improved to 90.2% from 90.0% in the previous week. Following the news, crude for August delivery fell 11 cents at $72.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Before the release of the data, crude was down 50 cents on Nymex. Also on Nymex, August reformulated gasoline was last down 2.08 cents at $2.3488 a gallon. August heating oil fell 0.64 cent at $2.1175 a gallon."

 

We better not get a hurricane this year or crude and gas prices will go through the roof.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/11/markets/oil_outlook/index.htm

 

$80 oil lurks

Growing demand, tight supplies, turbulent geopolitics, hurricane season - a witches brew for crude prices.

By Steve Hargreaves, CNNMoney.com staff writer

July 11 2007: 11:35 AM EDT

 

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices are again on a tear.

 

In the last four weeks, U.S. light crude oil futures have jumped about 12 percent and are now trading some $6 shy of the all-time trading high of $78.40 a barrel for a front-month contract set last July.

 

So, with both the geopolitical scene and hurricane season heating up, will we see $80 oil in the next few weeks?

 

The bad boys of oil

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article2056350.ece?openComment=true

 

From The Times

July 11, 2007

Vital ingredient is missing from oil mix

Carl Mortished: European briefing

 

What is the International Energy Agency (IEA) up to, yelling about a supply crunch? These are not prophets of doom, walking the streets with sandwich boards bearing dire warnings about Armageddon. These are sober civil servants, serious forecasters, and as such they ought to know that commodities don’t run out. They just get more expensive.

 

If the world is a queue of motorists waiting to fill up, the petrol station owner raises his price as he watches the queue lengthen. Those of us at the end of the queue see the litre price on the sign change from 95p to £1 to £1.20 and so on, until we either give up and park our cars or, more likely, we only half-fill our tanks. As the queue shrinks, the petrol station brings its price down. Prices rise, in a market, to the point where something gives. There was a missing number in the IEA’s Mid-Term Oil Market Report and that was its oil price assumption. The agency doesn’t issue public forecasts of the cost of crude – it’s too political a number and the IEA is too august a body to allow its internal price forecast to be broadcast on the street like a grubby brokerage.

China can screw us really bad if they happen to start buying cars.

Or stop buying U.S. Treasury notes.

http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSN1338954720070713

 

"Peak oil" advocates blast U.S. industry study

Fri Jul 13, 2007 2:06PM EDT

 

By Chris Baltimore

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Proponents of "peak oil" -- the theory that global crude oil production has hit its zenith and is headed for a steep decline -- are steamed with a U.S. oil industry group's findings that the world has plenty of oil.

 

Next week the U.S. National Petroleum Council -- a board of high-level U.S. oil industry executives -- releases its study titled "Facing the Hard Truths about Energy," conducted at the behest of Energy Secretary Sam Bodman.

Can't really say that I'm suprised.  Lee Raymond and Daniel Yergin aren't really known for bearish statements regarding oil supplies.

OPEC's quota system -- a great way to hide how much oil each of these nation's and their nationalized oil systems actually has. For oil gluttons like the U.S., it's like driving toward a cliff blindfolded. If one cannot take off the blindfold, the smart man would hit the brakes until he could see.

______________________

 

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-07/12/content_6366187.htm

 

News Analysis: Why does Kuwait keep its oil reserves secret? 

www.chinaview.cn  2007-07-12 16:55:13 

 

KUWAIT CITY, July 12 (Xinhua) -- Kuwait's Acting Oil Minister Mohammad Al-Olaim has reaffirmed the oil reserves at 100 billion barrels under the pressure from the members of parliament.

 

    Some lawmakers had threatened not to pass this year's budget, which is with a projected deficit of around 10.3 billion U.S. dollars, if the oil sector didn't tell them the truth about the country's oil reserves.

 

    This budget, one of the largest in Kuwait's history, is heavily reliant on oil income.

James Kunstler weighs in:

 

http://www.kunstler.com/mags_diary21.html

I'm grateful to Kunstler. He says it all, and much more eloquently than I could, saving me the time and trouble.

See WSJ article below.  It has meek title:  "Potential Energy Crunch May Bring Other Fuels to Fore" but in a nutshell, the Oil industry just released a report whereby they admit they cannot keep up with demand.  For them to admit this is significant:

 

Article has graphics, hence just the link:

 

http://online.wsj.com/public/article_print/SB118454442678367140.html

 

Here's something else: a friend of mine who knows something about Warren County -- which National Geographic in 2001 cited as a poster-child for sprawl -- he says that building permit activity has virtually stopped in the past six months.

 

Food for thought.

"which National Geographic in 2001 cited as a poster-child for sprawl --"

 

Google earth likes to remind you every time you type in Cincinnati, OH.

I think the full WSJ article should be posted. The WSJ links tend to expire over time. Here's the article with its graphics and text boxes...

________________

 

http://online.wsj.com/public/article_print/SB118454442678367140.html

 

Potential Energy Crunch May Bring Other Fuels to Fore

By BHUSHAN BAHREE

July 16, 2007; Page A2

 

World oil and gas supplies from conventional sources are unlikely to keep up with rising global demand over the next 25 years, the U.S. petroleum industry says in a draft report of a study commissioned by the government.

 

In the draft report, oil-industry leaders acknowledge the world will need to develop all the supplemental sources of energy it can -- ranging from biofuels to nuclear power to oil extracted by unconventional means from the oil sands of Canada -- to meet soaring demand. The surge in demand is expected to arise from rapid economic growth in such fast-developing countries as China and India, as well as mounting consumption in the U.S., the world's biggest energy market.

Here's something else: a friend of mine who knows something about Warren County -- which National Geographic in 2001 cited as a poster-child for sprawl -- he says that building permit activity has virtually stopped in the past six months.

 

Food for thought.

 

Not doubting you or your friend, but I would love to see some official documentation and, more importantly, some official explanations why that is the case. We can all speculate here as to the reasons why, and probably come up with some pretty accurate stuff, but until we hear it from the horses' mouths (do horses speak??), we'll still be left wanting...

Warren County isn't a very desirable place to build anyway.

 

I've talked to Electrical, Chemical Engineers that believe that peak oil and the market demand for alternative energy will evoke the research and development necessary for viable alternatives. I just hope it happens before the economy crashes. If theres one thing that will completely destroy the first world economy; its a massive energy crisis.

 

Are OPEC countries putting a lot of money into research? If so, how does it compare to the U.S., Europe, etc.?

Yes, but the technologies they've used -- horizontal drilling, water injection, etc. -- to keep oil flowing at full volume have actually had the opposite effect by damaging the geographic formations of oil deposits. Thus, some oil that might have been recoverable by being content with reduce flow might never be harvested.

 

In our haste to keep consuming oil at the rate we've been, technologies don't always serve us that well.

Here's something else: a friend of mine who knows something about Warren County -- which National Geographic in 2001 cited as a poster-child for sprawl -- he says that building permit activity has virtually stopped in the past six months.

 

Food for thought.

 

Not doubting you or your friend, but I would love to see some official documentation and, more importantly, some official explanations why that is the case. We can all speculate here as to the reasons why, and probably come up with some pretty accurate stuff, but until we hear it from the horses' mouths (do horses speak??), we'll still be left wanting...

 

Commercial building brisk; home construction slows

Butler County issues half the new-home permits it did last year, following national trend.

By Tim Tresslar

 

Staff Writer

 

Monday, July 02, 2007

 

"Developers sought fewer single-family home permits in Butler County in May than they did a year ago, while the pace of commercial building remained brisk.

 

In May, the county issued permits for 55 single-family homes, versus 108 a year ago and 150 in May 2005."

http://www.journal-news.com/hp/content/oh/story/news/business/2007/07/02/hjn070207permits.html

 

Here is a recent article on Butler County's home building permits. Permits issued in May were down 50% from 2006 and down 75% from 2005. I am sure Warren County and most of the other counties in the metro have very similar numbers.

 

I recently talked with a major engineering firm in the Cincy area and they said they have NO housing subdivision being planned at this time. WOW!!!!

 

I wish I could say its because people are moving back towards the city and away from Sububia, but I think currently is just a problem of overbuilding, high housing prices, increasing interest rates, BK and tightening loan standards. I still think their will be a movement towards the urban cities as gas prices get out of control, but gas prices are not at that point yet.

http://www.sctimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070717/OPINION/107170017/1006/NEWS01

 

Your turn: OPEC countries ignore West's agenda

By Rolf Westgard, Deerwood

 

 

Published: July 17. 2007 12:30AM

 

American drivers wince as they pull up at the pump to pay $3 and more for a gallon of gasoline.

 

Our leaders respond by asking OPEC to produce more oil. Congress passes a ludicrous bill making it illegal for oil-producing countries to manipulate prices by withholding "our oil" from the market.

 

Washington apparently didn't note the recent statement of Saudi oil executive Sadad Al-Husseini: "There has been a paradigm shift in the energy world whereby oil producers are no longer inclined to rapidly exhaust their resource for the sake of accelerating the misuse of a precious and finite commodity.

Oil could reach $90, if OPEC maintains current supply

 

NEW YORK: U.S. crude price could top 90 US dollars a barrel this autumn and hit 95 dollars by the end of the year if OPEC keeps oil production capped at current levels, Goldman Sachs said in a report issued on Monday.

US oil prices have risen to near 74 dollars per barrel, driven this month by higher demand and lower supplies, the report said, pointed out that such fundamentals could tighten further unless key OPEC members hike output.

"We believe an increase in Saudi Arabian, Kuwaiti and UAE (United Arab Emirate) production by the end of the summer is critical to avoid prices spiking above 90 dollars a barrel this autumn," the report stated.

OPEC agreed last year to lower output by 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd), and Goldman said global oil production is down about 1 million bpd from last summer''s levels.

Disappointing output growth from nonـOPEC producers also helped tighten supplies, Goldman said, adding global demand was up by 1 million bpd from yearـago levels.

"Our estimates show that keeping OPEC production at current levels and assuming normal weather this coming winter, total petroleum inventories would fall by over 150 million barrels or 6.5 percent by the end of the year, which would push prices to 95 dollars a barrel without a demand response," the report forecast.

A decision by OPEC to open the taps could take five to 10 dollars off the price of a barrel of crude as some speculators exit the market, although the fall might be brief.

"Such a pullback would likely prove temporary as long as global economic growth remains strong, and the consequent reduction in oil spare capacity would increase the market vulnerability to unexpected oil supply disruptions," Goldman said.ـ Reuters

http://www.alwatan.com.kw/Default.aspx?MgDid=525042&pageId=323

Now these types of numbers might make the average American change its driving habits and over a sustained period even demand mass transit.

Call me crazy, but I can see U.S. troops in Saudi oil fields w/in the next couple years as this situation continues to escalate; I wouldn't be shocked at anything that happens over there.