why would we take the saudi oil fields, our carriers already control the straights of hormuz, couldn't we just tell the saudis that the only tankers we let leave the gulf are those that go to america?

^I doubt we'll be able to get away with either.  The Iraq war is only using up America's political capital in the world at an accelerating pace and we're losing influence in the middle east.  The Saudi's don't need us to buy their excess oil anymore because they don't have any.  Besides, the way the US is careening toward insolvency, we're going to end up being too broke to support expanded military operations over there. 

And I think a few other nations we otherwise consider friends would be a tad upset with that move. China, Japan, India, European Union.

 

China, especially. Block oil to their country and they will probably consider it an act of war. At minimum, China stops buying U.S. treasury notes and the American economy collapses like a house of cards.

Hey, I have that graphic somewhere too! I may have some others along those lines.

Anyone good enough at photoshop to put Bin Laden in the passenger seat?

Unfortunately, no. But I can post some nasty data:

___________________________

 

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2716 (Click on it to see the charts to which this summary refers).

 

Executive Summary

 

  1. World total liquids supply production (Fig 1) remains on a peak plateau since 2006 and is forecast to fall off this peak plateau in 2009. As long as demand continues increasing then prices will also continue increasing.

  2. Forecast world crude oil and lease condensate (C&C) production retains its 2005 peak (Fig 2). The forecast to 2100 shows declining C&C production, using a bottom up forecast to 2012 (Fig 3). The forecast to 2012 shows a 1%/yr decline rate to 2009, followed by a 4%/yr decline rate to 2012.

  3. World oil discovery rates peaked in 1965 (Fig 4) and production has exceeded discovery for every year since the mid 1980s. Discoverable reserves in giant fields also peaked during the mid 1960s (Fig 5). The time lag between world peak discovery in 1965 and world peak production in 2005 of 40 years is similar to the time lag of 42 years for the USA Lower 48 (Fig 6).

  4. World C&C year on year production changes to March 2007 and April 2007 (Figs 7,8) show significant declines for Mexico, North Sea and Saudi Arabia; significant increases for Russia, Azerbaijan and Angola. As Russia is likely to be on a production plateau and Saudi Arabia has probably passed peak production, the world C&C production will continue to decline slowly.

  5. Key producer Saudi Arabia recently released an updated project schedule which does not show originally scheduled expansions of Shaybah phase 2, 0.25 mbd and Al Khafji Neutral Zone, 0.30 mbd. Consequently, it is now almost a certainty that Saudi Arabia passed peak C&C production of 9.6 mbd in 2005 (Figs 9,10).

  6. World natural gas plant liquids is forecast to increase due to new OPEC projects (Fig 11). World ethanol and XTL production is forecast to double by 2012 (Fig 12). World processing gains are forecast to decline slowly to 2012 (Fig 13).

 

even if world natural gas increases, does that affect the united states?  do we have the LNG terminals to take in many enough to offset our lost production?

I will not completely disagree with any of the above reasons; however, I will say that a desperate nation is a dangerous one, i.e., our extreme dependence on foreign oil. Also remember, the Saudi government is not popularly elected; it is widely resented by a sizable amount of its people. When civil unrest or a potential government overthrow presents itself in the near future, the U.S. will not stand idly by.

**We are not setting up permanent military bases in Iraq because we don't have anywhere else to put our boys. :roll:

I'm certainly not endorsing this course of action. I'm just saying that this is a plausible scenario, as oil prices skyrocket and/or supply shortages ensue. We (the U.S. govt & military) will not stand by and twiddle our thumbs. If you believe that this couldn't possibly happen, then you haven't been paying attention.

even if world natural gas increases, does that affect the united states?  do we have the LNG terminals to take in many enough to offset our lost production?

 

No, but some have been proposed mostly in off-shore locations due to security issues.

 

I will not completely disagree with any of the above reasons; however, I will say that a desperate nation is a dangerous one, i.e., our extreme dependence on foreign oil. Also remember, the Saudi government is not popularly elected; it is widely resented by a sizable amount of its people. When civil unrest or a potential government overthrow presents itself in the near future, the U.S. will not stand idly by.

 

Unfortunately, you are probably right. And the Saudi royal family has been cutting its own throat by teaching fundamentalist Wahabi philosophies in schools that run counter to the extravagance enjoyed by the royal family. I wouldn't be surprised to see a revolution similar to the Iranian revolution of 1979. That would be a meatgrinder and I wouldn't want to see our young servicemen and women get into it? Dubya may not mind, but I would.

 

**We are not setting up permanent military bases in Iraq because we don't have anywhere else to put our boys. :roll:

I'm certainly not endorsing this course of action. I'm just saying that this is a plausible scenario, as oil prices skyrocket and/or supply shortages ensue. We (the U.S. govt & military) will not stand by and twiddle our thumbs. If you believe that this couldn't possibly happen, then you haven't been paying attention.

 

I'll have to dig up a quote from Dick Cheney when he was with Halliburton from the late 1990s in regards to future oil supplies.

Gas prices drive workers - and bosses - to telecommute

 

By Jonathan Mandell

CNN

(CNN) -- Irritated by the highest gas prices in U.S. history, John Thorner has a message for his 70 employees: Stay home.

 

Thorner is requiring all staff at the National Recreation and Park Association to avoid commuting at least one day a week -- either by working four long days and taking the fifth one off, or by working from home on the fifth day.

 

"The 70 people in our office drive an average of 30 miles a day. We did the math and figured that by having the employees not commute one day a week, we would be saving 100 gallons a week," says Thorner, executive director of the nonprofit, which is based in the suburbs of Washington.

 

Find this article at:

http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/06/07/gas.prices.telework/index.html 

 

Being a carpenter, I'm still trying to figure out a way to "telecommute" to the jobsite. :?

Virtual carpentry?  Interesting concept.

Employers, too, are talking more about telecommuting, says Jennifer Pickett of the Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation.

 

"Just in the past week or so, we've heard from employers who specifically mentioned gas prices as a reason for their considering a telework program to offset the cost of commuting for their employees," says Pickett, whose department runs Telework!VA, a program that provides incentives for businesses in the state to encourage their employees to work at home.

 

Any idea why the Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation is trying to promote telecommuting?  Shouldn't they be promoting the expansion and use of rail and public transportation instead?

 

Why does a state promote telecommuting in the first place?  Doesn't that take away loads of tax revenues from gas taxes, traffic violations, office space taxes, and sales tax on everything from new cars to that sweater you picked up at the mall on your way home from work?

With a barrel of Oil now at $77 dollars, I wonder why gas prices are dropping?

 

Any thoughts.

Over speculation.

Refineries are starting to come back online...almost 92% refinery utilization.  They're drawing down crude inventories (causing crude prices to go up) and increasing gasoline inventories (causing gasoline prices to go down). 

 

Also, this is a time of year when gasoline inventories typically plummet, but we're increasing them or at least holding them steady.  When traders compare where we stand compared to previous years, they're starting to get more comfortable with our gasoline situation.

Good summary analysis, Brewmaster.

^You nailed it, Brewmaster. However, let's check back in a month or so and see what hurricane season has done to our beloved refinery capacity. That, and continuing shenanigans in the Middle East/West Africa can change this in a real hurry.

**It's these continual price swings that have allowed the U.S. consumer to continue believing it's oil company collusion and not the fundamental supply/demand problem that it is. Oil/gas prices need to go up and stay there if we are going to see any real change in our attitudes and behavior, along with our govt's and industry.

In short, enjoy the lower prices now because they aren't going to stay long. :wave:

Thanks for the info.

AAA survey

Ohio's cheap gas is going, going ...

Tuesday,  July 31, 2007 3:30 AM

By Amy Saunders

 

THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH

Best & worst

Ohio has the lowest gasoline prices in the nation, according to AAA. Here's a look at states where drivers fare the best and the worst:

 

Least expensive

1. Ohio ($2.67)

 

2. South Carolina ($2.70)

 

3. New Jersey ($2.76)

 

4. Tennessee ($2.76)

 

5. Mississippi ($2.76)

 

Most expensive

1. Hawaii ($3.24)

 

2. Connecticut ($3.12)

 

3. Alaska ($3.12)

 

4. New York ($3.10)

 

5. North Dakota ($3.08)

 

Source: AAA

 

Prices at some central Ohio stations yesterday were edging below $2.50 for a gallon of unleaded regular, while a recent sampling by AAA pegged the state average at $2.67 a gallon.

 

Still, Brad Proctor, founder of the Centerville, Ohio-based Web site GasPriceWatch.com, made sure he filled up his tank yesterday, not later this week.

 

http://dispatch.com/dispatch/content/local_news/stories/2007/07/31/gas_price.ART_ART_07-31-07_A1_KF7EORU.html

 

Least expensive

 

1. Ohio ($2.67)

 

Source: AAA

 

Woohoo! NUM-BER 1! NUM-BER 1! NUM-BER 1!

 

 

http://www.dailyherald.com/business/story.asp?id=337351

 

U.S. fuel thirst deepens despite more mass transit

By Timothy Gardner

Reuters

Posted Saturday, August 04, 2007

 

NEW YORK -- Lofty gasoline prices have helped push U.S. public transit ridership to the highest level since the country spawned its highway system in the 1950s -- but the growth is not enough to drive down demand for motor fuel any time soon.

 

U.S. public transportation use rose to 10.1 billion rides last year, the most since 1957, when President Dwight Eisenhower signed the interstate highway bill into law, according to the American Public Transportation Association, an industry group.

1946: Ridership peaks as Americans take 23.4 billion trips on trains, buses and trolleys.

 

1960: Ridership dips to 9.3 billion with the rise of the highway system.

 

1972: Use hits a low of 6.5 billion trips.

 

1997: Ten years ago, 8.4 billion trips were taken.

 

2006: Ridership surpasses 10.1 billion.

 

 

Hey, looks like ridership bottomed out about the same time that U.S. oil production peaked.

 

I have to wonder what the stats would look like if airlines were added.

 

When was the great gas shortage of the 70s? Ridership hit a low in '72...

nyc alone contributes 1.45 billion trips per year, nearly 15% of the national total

It was around 1971-72.  I was in college in Missouri and remember talking to my folks in Connecticut about them sitting in gas lines and seeing people fight over cutting in line.  The whole time in Missouri, I never saw a gas line and the pump price never approached what they were paying on the East and West Coasts.  What funny is that I can recall my Dad complaining about paying 75-cents (!) for gasoline at the local Mobil station.

 

 

When was the great gas shortage of the 70s? Ridership hit a low in '72...

 

Here's a little history from http://www.buyandhold.com/bh/en/education/history/2002/arab.html

 

On October 6, 1973, the Jewish holy day of Yom Kippur, Egyptian forces attacked Israel from across the Suez Canal, while at the same time Syrian troops were flooding the Golan Heights in a surprise offensive. After early losses, Israeli counterattacks quickly pushed into Syrian territory in the north, as troops outflanked the Egyptian army in the south. Israel, with help from the U.S., succeeded in reversing the Arab gains and a cease-fire was concluded in November.

 

But on October 17, OPEC struck back against the West by imposing an oil embargo on the U.S., while increasing prices by 70% to America's Western European allies. Overnight, the price of a barrel of oil to these nations rose from $3 to $5.11. [in January 1974, they raised it further to $11.65.] The U.S. and the Netherlands, in particular, were singled out for their support of Israel in the war.

KJP...apparently Reuter's hasn't been wqatching California as far as gasoline consumption.

 

Lower gas prices state's reward for new habits?

Many residents driving less, buying fuel-efficient vehicles to combat costs

By Gary Richards, MEDIANEWS STAFF

Inside Bay Area

 

 

It's the peak of the summer driving season, crude oil hit an all-time high Tuesday of $78 a barrel, and, still, somehow, gas prices in California have been steadily sliding.

 

In fact, at $3.07 a gallon, the average cost of gas in the state isn't much more — and in a few cases it's actually cheaper — than it is in several other states. That only happens once a decade or so.

 

http://www.insidebayarea.com//ci_6515117?IADID=Search-www.insidebayarea.com-www.insidebayarea.com

It was around 1971-72. 

 

Check out my prior message.

Didn't see that. I stand corrected, but I was close.

 

Clearly, though, we learned nothing from the lesson.

Ridership on the rise

 

High gas prices is one of the major reasons the use of public transportation is on the rise in the U.S. Here's a historical look at ridership.

 

1946: Ridership peaks as Americans take 23.4 billion trips on trains, buses and trolleys.

 

1960: Ridership dips to 9.3 billion with the rise of the highway system.

 

1972: Use hits a low of 6.5 billion trips.

 

1997: Ten years ago, 8.4 billion trips were taken.

 

2006: Ridership surpasses 10.1 billion.

 

Source: American Public Transportation Association

 

It would be interesting to see these numbers as a percentage of all trips.

Why? Transit doesn't exist in all travel markets. And even in many cases where it does, it wasn't designed to be car-competitive, but to serve a narrow purpose such as to make some employers, retailers or doctors accessible to low-income, elderly or disabled. And there are also some bus routes that are cosmetic and serve a political purpose.

 

Only a comparitve few transit routes in most American cities are truly car-competitive -- where buses or trains run every few minutes and serve walkable neighborhoods and commercial districts. But most origin-destination points have no transit between them, so I don't think it's a fair comparison to include those travel markets in the overall market shares by each transportation mode.

I see your point, but I think it would give a more complete picture of the current state of public transit to know what the share of total trips that are made by transit is.  Looking at just the current raw numbers is like tracking home prices without factoring in inflation.  It provides the context.  Sure total transit usage rose, but if total trips rose concurrently, or at an even greater rate, then is it really good news about the state of America's public transit?  If transit's share fell, then I would say that it has been further marginalized as a transportation mode, even if raw ridership increases (it's providing for a smaller slice of the populace).  That transit doesn't serve all transportation markets doesn't negate this.

I've seen conflicting information that the market share of auto trips has flattened out. But I don't remember if that's total trips or vehicle-miles traveled.

http://www.ornery.org/essays/warwatch/2006-10-29-1.html

 

The Ornery American:

 

Civilization Watch

First appeared in print in The Rhinoceros Times, Greensboro, NC

By Orson Scott Card May 6, 2007

 

Oil -- Past the Peak

 

People have been crying wolf about running out of oil for a long time. Back when I was in college, I was reading estimates that we'd be out of oil before the end of the 20th century.

 

After those predictions from my college days, vast new oil reserves were discovered -- Alaska's north slope, for instance, and the oil of the North Sea.

nyc alone contributes 1.45 billion trips per year, nearly 15% of the national total

 

And I contribute 0.0075% to the national total.

 

Ergo I'm 0.05% Of NYC.

For those like me who only fill up an 11 gallon tank once a month, this might be a good time to hit the gas station.

 

Here's the brief writeup from the EIA...

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp

Yet, keen analysts are note that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by nearly 11 million barrels in the last two weeks. Despite a drop last week, crude oil inputs to refineries during the last two weeks refinery has averaged 16.0 million barrels per day. At this rate and with domestic crude oil production averaging about 5.2 million barrels per day over the last two weeks, it would take 10.8 million barrels per day of imported crude oil to keep crude oil inventories from falling. While this is a weekly import level attained 3 times so far in 2007, it is hardly an average or expected level. Should crude oil imports continue to average about 10.1 million barrels, as they have the last two weeks, while runs are maintained at their recent level, crude oil inventories would fall by an average of about 5 million barrels each week, putting inventories back within the average range by the end of this month.

 

Also interesting is the drop in gasoline inventories.  With refineries now operating in the low 91-92% range, you wouldn't expect a drop of 1.7 mm barrels, but demand is staying really strong at 1% above last year (the low prices lately shouldn't help much).

 

The market hasn't caught up yet.  Sometimes it seems to take a few days to let the speculators have thier fun, but things seem to be pointing towards higher prices.  So far, prices are relatively flat.

Police mount bikes as gas edges up

Thursday,  August 9, 2007 3:39 AM

By Martin Rozenman

THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH

 

Some law-enforcement agencies are finding that motorcycles make sense when gas prices are high.

 

The State Highway Patrol added 10 motorcycles in the last year, and Genoa Township added two about a month ago.

 

http://dispatch.com/dispatch/content/local_news/stories/2007/08/09/CYCLE_COPS.ART_ART_08-09-07_B2_JL7IO72.html

Police mount bikes as gas edges up

 

Why? Were the police lonely?

 

Ba-da-bump.

http://www.cleveland.com/business/plaindealer/index.ssf?/base/business-3/118664941099160.xml&coll=2

 

Ford chief hints at raising gas tax to encourage fuel efficiency

Mulally stops short of endorsing it but sees it as way to spark fuel efficiency

Thursday, August 09, 2007

Robert Schoenberger

Plain Dealer Reporter

 

Traverse City, Mich. - To lower fuel usage, achieve energy independence and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, politicians may want to consider raising the tax on gasoline in addition to new vehicle fuel economy regulations, Ford Motor Co.'s chief executive said Wednesday.

 

"We ought to be improving our fuel efficiency for every year, forever, on every vehicle," Ford CEO Alan Mulally said during the annual Management Briefing Seminars hosted by the Center for Automotive Research. "That's what we really need to stand for."

how much of a difference is there really between this thread and the Price of Gasoline Thread?

None.

Anyone Objecting to a Merge?

Not I.

nor I

the price of gasoline thread contained predictions for the final price for the year, those should be preserved.

yes, yes; keep the predictions somehow. Let the merging begin.

keep the predictions? You understand that merge simply slices the two threads together?

Hmm, I guess that would be the case. Ok, you have my permission.  :-D