Ta-Da. Now merged.

Stop the pope's police state!!

Just kidding. I always wondered why there was two separate threads.

This is sad....

__________________

http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1880485/posts

What’s American’s energy IQ?

 

Published Sunday, August 12, 2007

by By John Johnston

 

 

News Analysis

 

What’s America’s energy IQ?

 

“Not as high as it should be,” Dr. John Felmy told the Boca Raton News.  “In fact, we were very surprised at how much confusion and misinformation was revealed by the survey.”

 

There’s been a survey?  What survey?

 

Dr. Felmy smiles – the smile of a man who’s warming to his subject.

This is well worth reading, but very long. So I'll post only the highlights. If you want to see the whole thing, it's posted at:

 

http://culturechange.org/cms/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=107

 

Peak Soil: Why cellulosic ethanol, biofuels are unsustainable and a threat to America       

Written by Alice Friedemann   

Released April 10, 2007

 

"The nation that destroys its soil destroys itself." - President Franklin D. Roosevelt

 

Peak Soil: Why Cellulosic ethanol and other Biofuels are Not Sustainable and are a Threat to America’s National Security

 

Part 1. The Dirt on Dirt.

 

Ethanol is an agribusiness get-rich-quick scheme that will bankrupt our topsoil.

 

Nineteenth century western farmers converted their corn into whiskey to make a profit (Rorabaugh 1979). Archer Daniels Midland, a large grain processor, came up with the same scheme in the 20th century. But ethanol was a product in search of a market, so ADM spent three decades relentlessly lobbying for ethanol to be used in gasoline. Today ADM makes record profits from ethanol sales and government subsidies (Barrionuevo 2006).

 

The Department of Energy hopes to have biomass supply 5% of the nation’s power, 20% of transportation fuels, and 25% of chemicals by 2030. These combined goals are 30% of the current petroleum consumption (DOE Biomass Plan, DOE Feedstock Roadmap).

^^I'm not doubting how dumb Americans are when it comes to energy awareness, but doesn't the nature of a lot of the questions in this API-sponsored survey seem more than a little push-pollesque? I mean really, most seem like tee-ups for the copy points in the latest Chevron image print ad.

No question. But some answers to some questions really floored me.

One stat that leaped out at me was that only 15% of the oil we import comes from Persian Gulf countries. That's still a huge amount of oil, but it seems to me that if we really wanted to, we could find ways to reduce the need to buy oil from such an unstable region.

^If the Carlysle Group wasn't levered to the hilt in the region, maybe.

Another aspect of high-yield industrial agriculture that I haven't seen mentioned anywhere is field drainage. Most midwestern farmland is laced with miles of perforated plastic tubes or older porous clay tiles buried just below the frost line to carry away excess water. The older drainage systems were installed to turn wetlands into farmland, and the current systems provide earlier access to fields for spring tillage and planting and prevent standing water from damaging growing crops during times of heavy rains.

 

The drainage tiles intercept surface water before it can be filtered by percolation and replenish aquifers, and deliver it expeditiously to rivers and tributary streams. I suspect that agricultural drainage systems contribute at least as much to falling water tables, uneven river flows and flood surges as do building roofs, paved streets and parking lots.

Didn't know that. Interesting stuff.

Last week saw a huge draw on gasoline of 5.7 million barrels even in the face of refineries running at 91.6% capacity. We're now sitting at the second lowest gasoline inventory (in terms of days of supply) that we've seen since the EIA began keeping track of it (March 1991).

 

We've got 20.4 days worth of gas left in the "tank".  We've been at that level two other times in the past (August 29, 2003 and Sept 2, 2005).  The post 1991 record is 20.3 days and was set August 22, 2003.  Keep driving everyone!  We so close to setting a record!!!!!

 

Just to put that into perspective, here's the data since 1991 from the EIA's website that I averaged out for each year...

 

Year   Days of Supply

1991 29.2

1992 30.1

1993 29.7

1994 28.4

1995 26.5

1996 25.7

1997 24.9

1998 25.9

1999 25.1

2000 23.5

2001 24.0

2002 23.9

2003 22.8

2004 22.6

2005 22.8

2006 22.7

2007 22.1 (average to date)

 

I don't think this is a sign of peak oil, but it does show how vulnerable we are getting to any future shortages.  It probably says more about how little we have invested in storage at our refineries compared to how much demand has gone up.

We did it folks!!!  We CRUSHED the record!  We're down to 20.0 days!!!  [/sarcasm]

 

With a record number of projected travelers for labor day weekend...next stop...19!

 

The EIA's weekly publication, This Week in Petroleum, actually wrote about it...

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twiparch/070829/twipprint.html

Over the last four weeks, total gasoline inventories have dropped by more than 12 million barrels, or somewhat faster than normally seen at this time of year. This sharp drop in inventories leads us to the bad news for consumers.

 

As the chart below indicates, not only is the absolute level of inventories low (see Figure 4 in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report), but in terms of days of supply, it is the lowest ever recorded (the days of supply data goes back to March 1991), reaching just 20 days. This is even fewer days than seen following the hurricanes in 2005. While the absolute level of total gasoline inventories has been slightly lower a few times in recent years, when the level of demand is taken into account, it has not been this low before. Of course, with gasoline demand set to fall significantly after Labor Day, the low level of inventories is not likely to cause a sharp spike in retail prices, but more likely will limit the usual seasonal decline seen after Labor Day, with the possibility remaining of an atypical slight increase over the next few weeks.

 

We're now worse off than we were Post-Katrina!  :-o

The peak oil crisis: the quiet time

 

By Tom Whipple

On the surface, very little happened during the past week. Hurricane Dean did little damage to oil production and the next major hurricane of the year has yet to form. Oil prices gyrated in the low seventies in response to changing credit crunch news. For a while, Wall Street decided the credit crisis was coming under control and the stock market had some good days...

 

 

Article archived at :

http://www.energybulletin.net/newswire.php?id=34088

ouch to space,

 

yay to the responses posted online (very rare for any internet paper forum)

To say nothing of the alternative energy programs that will cost money while tax credits reduce revenue. Another example of Americans wanting something for nothing.

$80.18/bbl on the NYMEX!

 

KJP - Does this mean that you win a bet with your boss?

Oil tops $80 a barrel, an all-time high

New record for crude as government reports big drop in supplies; Alaska production slowdown, Gulf storms add to worries.

By Steve Hargreaves, CNNMoney.com staff writer

September 12 2007: 5:22 PM EDT

 

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Oil prices hit a fresh intraday record high Wednesday, passing $80 a barrel for the first time ever, after the government said supplies of crude oil fell far more than expected.

 

U.S. light crude for October delivery set a trading high of $80.18 late in the session before pulling back slightly to settle at $79.91 a barrel, still up $1.68 a barrel and another record close. The old trading high was $78.77 a barrel hit Aug. 1. 

 

Find this article at:

http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/12/markets/oil_eia/index.htm?cnn=yes 

 

 

Article through a link on Marketwatch.

 

 

With Oil At Record Highs, Talk Of $200 A Barrel

 

24/7 Wall St. has run three or four pieces recently that suggested there are strong cases for $100 a barrel oil. With the $80 mark reached last week, some oil industry experts do not discount the possibility that crude make get close to $100 this year. Jeff Currie, head of commodity research at Goldman Sachs, describes it as "a cyclical bull market for oil". "There is a risk that the oil price will spike to $95 per barrel by the end of this year if the market remains in significant deficit," he told The Telegraph.

 

Now part of the debate has begun to move to whether oil prices could hit $200. CNN Money recently ran a piece looks at a growing school of thought driven by analysts "who generally believe oil production has either topped out or will do so in the next couple of years."

 

Douglas A. McIntyre

http://www.247wallst.com/2007/09/with-oil-at-rec.html

 

While I don't know if Oil will go to $200, the $95 to $100 doesn't seem out of the question right now. I have also seen a lot of articles that say at $100 it will cause major damage to our economy. Its a shame the public continues to demand more roads, etc... and not mass transit. Once again, our society is going to wait until they are forced to change our habits, before we make the needed modifications.

http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=41

 

Articles

 

Irish energy minister says oil rationing “common sense”

Posted on Tuesday, September 18th, 2007

Ireland’s Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources has claimed that some form of energy rationing system would be a “common sense approach” to the twin challenges of peak oil and transport carbon emissions. Speaking on the sidelines of a conference held by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil in Cork, Eamon Ryan argued that it would be politically difficult to raise carbon taxes high enough to cut booming oil demand in Ireland, and confirmed that his government is investigating the possibility of introducing some kind of energy rationing scheme, perhaps starting with transport. Ryan, whose Green Party formed a coalition with Fianna Fail in July, is one of the first Western energy ministers to publicly acknowledge peak oil. In a lengthy interview with Lastoilshock.com, Ryan went on to discuss Ireland’s particular energy vulnerability, and plans to transform the country’s transport system.

 

Listen to the interview with Eamon Ryan:

http://www.davidstrahan.com/audio/eamon%20ryan%2018.9.07.mp3

^---- M. King Hubbert himself advocated a ration system.

 

    Trouble is that folks will sell the ration tickets, or otherwise find a way to work around the system.

And it doesn't allow for the free market economy to work. It defeats the entire purpose of capitalism, if we have to dole out ration tickets which are wholly ineffective. I _would_, however, be an advocate for a legal ration trading system, in which they would have a set value they could be sold for to authorized vendors, who could then sell them back to the public at market rate.

 

This is method is similar to many industries. For instance, the Kyoto Protocol has vastly not lived up to its promise; there is one country that may reduce its pollution by the end. The United States refuses to abide by it for good reason; our emissions trading system works vastly better. Newer coal power plants, for instance, would have a smaller reduction in pollution if they installed very expensive scrubbers and other emission control products; older plants would reap a bigger benefit and have a greater reduction of pollution. So the newer plant sells its pollution rations to the older plant; the newer plant is allowed to pollute more, but because its newer, more efficent, and more clean, it is offset by the older plant's pollution.

I read somewhere, maybe TheOilDrum.com, that world oil production so far peaked in July of 2006. Everybody buckle up, it's gonna be a wild ride. Look for an attack on Iran soon.

I read somewhere, maybe TheOilDrum.com, that world oil production so far peaked in July of 2006. Everybody buckle up, it's gonna be a wild ride. Look for an attack on Iran soon.

 

haven't we already covered where the plurality of our oil comes from in this thread? (hint: it ain't the middle east, its cold and they like poutine)

the middle east has the remaining surplus capacity (if any)

^Yes pope, right now the majority of our oil does not come from the Middle East, but the vast majority of proven oil reserves left in the ground lie in the Middle East. In an energy-hungry world, these reserves become very important going forward.

As for Iran, you tell me what happens to the price of oil everywhere if/when we attack Iran and they don't roll over and play dead like the Iraqi military? Where we get our oil from right now is irrelevant to the price we are going to be paying for it; that's my point.

wait i'm confused are you suggesting that oil prices will go up or down if iran were to be "iraq-ified"?

oil prices would go way up

out of curiosity, where does iran export the majority of its oil? (if anyone takes this thread world-stage political discussion your post will be deleted)

September 17, 2007

 

Goldman Sachs Major Oil Changes (Up To $135 Per Barrel Super-Spike)

 

This morning Goldman Sachs has made some major changes to its integrated oil and refining universe to reflect new commodity price assumptions, as well as changes in many cost structures ahead.  The overall rating is still listed as "Attractive" for both integrated oil and for refining. 

 

Goldman Sachs is calling it as now being in Phase 2 of a multi-year "Super-Spike" era.  It says the lower ends of the $50 to $105 per barrel oil and $8 to $15 per barrel USGC refining margin range has not caused demand to fall.  Its base case forecasts now reflect the upper portion of that band with $80 per barrel oil in 2008 and $90 per barrel in 2009.  It also sees refining margins at $14 per barrel in 2008 and $16 per barrel in 2009. 

 

 

http://www.247wallst.com/2007/09/goldman-sachs-m.html

 

Its coming. America better starting building mass transit NOW!!

 

Oh please, if you look at gas prices over several decades, inflation would probably ideally put gasoline at 4.50 per gallon right now anyway. I don't know why people think current gas prices are so high. If they were, sprawl wouldn't be the current trend. I don't think 4.50/gallon would do much to change a person's lifestyle and I doubt it would be the tipping point where middle/upper middle class people in most cities would start using mass transit. Probably more like 6 or 7 /gallon.

Peak Oil Review - September 24th, 2007

 

http://www.energybulletin.net/35073.html

 

By Tom Whipple

ASPO-6 last week; ASPO-Houston next month (Oct 17-20)

 

Last week in Cork, Ireland, some 300 attendees at ASPO-6 heard former U.S. Energy Secretary James Schlesinger say, “Conceptually the battle is over—the peakists have won.” Shell’s former Chairman Lord Ron Oxburgh stated unambiguously, “today the era of cheap energy is over; a move away from fossil fuels is urgently needed.” CIBC’s Jeff Rubin’s highlighted the coming problem with declining oil exports, pointing out a key example: “in 10 years, Mexico could become an Indonesia—a former oil exporter that is now a oil importer." 

 

... [snip-- other interesting stuff here, but it's more economic in nature] 

 

 

The peak oil crisis: On contemplating $100 oil

By Tom Whipple

For the last few days, the press has been full of stories about the possibility of oil reaching $100 a barrel this winter. As prices have been bouncing around in the low $80s for the last couple of weeks, another $20 increase will do it. The theory behind the $100 forecast is that supply and demand is very tight and that China, India and oil-exporting countries are growing their domestic consumption so fast that even if the U.S. goes into a recession the situation will continue to tighten...

 

Article archived at :

http://www.energybulletin.net/newswire.php?id=35357

 

Original article :

http://www.fcnp.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1875&Itemid=35

What happens when an oil supply expert tells about what's coming to media who are paid to talk? Speechlessness!!!

 

 

The interview is from Oct 2 on CNBC with Jeff Rubin of CIBC World Markets, the investment banking division of the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.

 

And here's another interview from that informercial to buy stocks, CNBC...

 

Also, check out the

Here's an excellent piece from CNBC that I encourage you all to share with others who may be not aware of the issue of peak oil. It's a good introduction....

 

The following quote sums things up all too well.  It's from a speech Van Jones gave earlier this year to the Pachamama Alliance.  Source article:  http://www.hopedance.org/cms/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=337&Itemid=98

 

 

"People say that I am hard core about some of this stuff but I know because I have been to Davos, and I've sat with Bill Clinton and I've sat with Bill Gates and I've sat with Tony Blair and I've sat with Nancy Pelosi. I've sat with all these people who we think are in charge, and they don't know what to do. Take that in: they don't know what to do! You think you're scared? You think you're terrified? They have the Pentagon's intelligence, they have every major corporation's input; Shell Oil that has done this survey and study around the peak oil problem. You think we've got to get on the Internet and say, "Peak oil!" because the system doesn't know about it? They know, and they don't know what to do. And they are terrified that if they do anything they'll loose their positions. So they keep juggling chickens and chainsaws and hope it works out just like most of us everyday at work. That's real, that's real.

 

"And so I'm hard on people, I try to tell a few jokes, you know, to make it go down easier, but I'm hard on people. But I will tell you why I am hard on people. This is real ball, this is the last chance, this is it. I'm not telling you that; Tracy's not telling you that. You go to places like I go, and the Pentagon will tell you that."

 

 

 

Van Jones (1968-) is a civil rights and human rights advocate in Oakland, CA working to combine solutions to social inequality and environmental destruction. He is the co-founder and executive director of the Ella Baker Center for Human Rights, which now employs 24 staff members.

 

Oil Futures Hit New Record of $86

Monday October 15, 2:19 pm ET

By John Wilen, AP Business Writer

Crude Prices Surge As OPEC Estimates Supplies Are Falling While Demand Is Growing

 

NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices surged as high as $86 a barrel Monday for the first time after OPEC said crude production by non-member countries is likely falling even as global demand for oil is rising...

 

http://www.foxnews.com/wires/apw_archive_page/0,4703,101507,00.html

 

 

Oil prices surged as high as $86 a barrel Monday for the first time after OPEC said crude production by non-member countries is likely falling even as global demand for oil is rising

 

Why isn't The Oil Drum picking up on this story and running with it?  Isn't this the canary in the coal mine?

 

Prices are at record highs...producers are more incentivized than ever to open up the valves...yet after 3+ years of very high prices, their production is slipping.  Sounds peak oil-ish to me.

^Well, it has peaked for non-OPEC countries.  OPEC hasn't admitted yet whether or not their production is declining.  It probably is as Saudi Arabia is pumping more and more heavy oil. 

^---- M. King Hubbert himself advocated a ration system.

 

    Trouble is that folks will sell the ration tickets, or otherwise find a way to work around the system.

 

I wouldn't call that trouble. That's the market system taking effect. If those who bike or walk to work, school, etc. want to sell their rations, they should be able to those that need it -- suburbanites, etc. It gives people an incentive to drive less -- or not at all, for a potential profit.

Amazing that oil came with $1 of the $90-per-barrel threshhold earlier today before settling back to $87.4.

 

I imagine Matt Simmons is feeling pretty confident that his $10,000 bet with John Tierney will be paid. If you recall, oil industry investor Simmons bet the conservative New York Times columnist that the per-barrel price of oil would reach $200 (in 2005 dollars) in 2010 or before. Tierney bet it wouldn't reach that level. Of course, Simmons making a $10,000 bet says he already is pretty confident (as is Tierney). We'll see who is right and who is $10,000 poorer.

If oil ever reached that much I think we would have been well on our way to convert to ethanol fuel.

For the United States, that has its specific issues. Corn-based is not nearly as efficient, compared to what Brazil uses (sugar-cane). Bring on the FLEX CAR!

If oil ever reached that much I think we would have been well on our way to convert to ethanol fuel.

 

if we used all of all corn to make ethanol we wouldn't even have 25% of our gasoline production, and we would be hungry

For the United States, that has its specific issues. Corn-based is not nearly as efficient, compared to what Brazil uses (sugar-cane). Bring on the FLEX CAR!

no,

 

really the only hope for the future is the past, mass transit, electric streetcars and light rail run on the abundant coal we have.

Most people are not aware of the far reaching impacts a Peak Oil scenario would have and even those who post here should think about its far reaching ramifications. Think of how we are dependent on oil for nearly everything we use and not just for transportation, either. Plastics, fertilizer, most fabrics, paints and many, many other things come from oil, so we'll have high prices for those things as well. All of that will reverberate thru the global economy and could destroy it unless we get it together.

 

The problem is we are being led by a nutcase bent on keeping us without any real choices, while other politicos are in denial and are only whistling past the graveyard when they talk about ethanol. It will take much, much more than that to deal with the crisis of Peak Oil.

 

Meanwhile the clock is running...tick, tick, tick

If oil ever reached that much I think we would have been well on our way to convert to ethanol fuel.

 

Sadly, a lot of Americans believe there's an easy answer like that which we can easily turn to. They don't realize how energy-dense oil is, the extent to which we use it (especially for transportation) or how much alternative fuels it would take to replace it. Fact is, we don't have that much alternative fuels on the planet to replace oil. Even coal, with our 200-year supply at CURRENT rates, if synthesized to oil then refined into gasoline would be gone in three to four decades if we used it to replace oil.

 

Granted, we're not about to run out of oil, but when its price becomes so high, it effectively becomes exhausted as an affordable energy resource.

we have already run out of $20 a barrell oil, and $30 and $50 and maybe $70 a barrell oil.

Interesting commentary on the viability, or lack thereof, of ethanol....

 

http://www.isecureonline.com/Reports/OST/EOSTH801/

 

and more

 

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/rpt/EthanolCrackedUp.html

we have already run out of $20 a barrell oil, and $30 and $50 and maybe $70 a barrell oil.

 

That's not a correct statement.  Our ability to produce oil at $5 and $10 bbl is lower, but it's not gone.  I think it costs Saudi Arabia about $1.50 to extract a barrel of oil.  Tar sands are somewhere around $30-40/bbl, and I also think it costs somewhere in the $40-60/bbl range to convert coal to liquid fuel.  These are all off the top of my head, but the point is that we are never technically "out of cheap oil", we just might not have the ability to produce it at the rate which we'd like to consume it.  That's why the price is going up.

 

All of these non-conventional sources will get developed once investors believe that the higher prices will be sustained.  Some, like the oil sands are going through that period now, but there are capacity restrictions with those sources too.

That's not a correct statement.  Our ability to produce oil at $5 and $10 bbl is lower, but it's not gone.  I think it costs Saudi Arabia about $1.50 to extract a barrel of oil.  Tar sands are somewhere around $30-40/bbl, and I also think it costs somewhere in the $40-60/bbl range to convert coal to liquid fuel.  These are all off the top of my head, but the point is that we are never technically "out of cheap oil", we just might not have the ability to produce it at the rate which we'd like to consume it.  That's why the price is going up.

 

All of these non-conventional sources will get developed once investors believe that the higher prices will be sustained.  Some, like the oil sands are going through that period now, but there are capacity restrictions with those sources too.

 

An important part of the equation going forward is going to be more than just the cost--  energy returned on energy invested has to be taken into account.  It takes a barrel of oil's worth of energy to get 1.5 barrels worth out of the tar sands.  The tar sands are processed with natural gas.  With natural gas supplies in North America tightening and approaching peak (the northeast almost ran out of natural gas two winters ago), it's going to become questionable as to whether or not we want to continue to use gas to turn tar sands into oil.  Nuclear plants are being considered, but that's not the highest and best use of nuclear fuel either. 

 

As for coal, turning it into liquid fuels is also energy intensive.  It is also coming to light that the long touted statistic that we have 200 years worth of coal in the US has been based upon outdated and inaccurate data.  According to Richard Heinberg and others, it's now looking like we'll be facing "peak coal" in about 30 years (Heinberg presentation on the subject: 

).  You also have to factor in the BTU value of the coal, which is dropping as much of the most energy-dense coal has been used up.  In terms of BTU value per ton extracted, coal production peaked in the US in 1998. 

 

Then there are the pesky little problems of our continued carbon-loading of the atmosphere, damages to watersheds from mountain top removal for coal and from converting tar sands to oil (there's a new book out on this called Stupid To The Last Drop).