The Department of Energy has just released the 27th edition of the Transportation Energy Data Book. The book, available at http://cta.ornl.gov/data/index.shtml, is produced by Stacy Davis of Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Center for Transportation Analysis. New data in this year's edition include: transportation petroleum use by mode; ethanol consumption; number of vehicles per 1000 people in different regions of the world for 1996-2006 (China grew from 9.3 to 26.6); mpg for trucks as a function of speed; characteristics of daily driving; percent of housing units with a garage or carport; and more.

 

 

The data book, created under the Office of Planning, Budget and Analysis in DOE's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, draws together transportation data from diverse sources under a single, comprehensive document. It is a valuable tool for informing policymakers and analysts about activity in the transportation sector. This joins the Data Books on Biomass, Hydrogen, Power Technologies, and Buildings Energy.

 

Center for Transportation Analysis

http://cta.ornl.gov/data/Index.shtml

 

Transportation Energy Data Book (PDF)

http://cta.ornl.gov/data/tedb27/Edition27_Full_Doc.pdf

 

Biomass Energy Data Book (PDF)

http://cta.ornl.gov/bedb/pdf/Biomass_Energy_Data_Book.pdf

 

Hydrogen Data Book (PDF)

http://hydrogen.pnl.gov/cocoon/morf/hydrogen/article/103

 

Power Technologies Data Book (PDF)

http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/power_databook/

 

Buildings Energy Data Book (PDF)

http://buildingsdatabook.eere.energy.gov/?id=view_book

 

    The folks on the peak oil forums are calling for widespread shortages of gasoline in the United States over the next two months due to already low inventories coupled with hurricane-related shutdowns.

You referring to this?.....

 

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4526#more

 

Implications of a Ten Day Refinery Outage

Posted by Gail the Actuary on September 13, 2008 - 6:21pm

 

Where is our gasoline and diesel supply headed? Even before Ike hit, quite a few areas of the US were starting to see gasoline shortages. The impact of Ike can only make shortages worse. Most likely, it will take refineries at least a week or two to get production back to normal levels after a storm of this type, considering the impacts of electrical outages and flooding. In this article, I will examine some of the issues that seem to be involved. Based on my analysis, fuel supply shortages are likely to last well into October, and are likely to get considerably worse before they get better.

 

Insight 1. Even before Hurricane Ike hit, inventories were very low.

 

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist_chart/WGTSTUS1w.jpg

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/46554

 

The offshore? Good luck, bad luck and mukluk

by Randy Udall and Steve Andrew

 

Ending the federal moratorium that prohibits drilling off the east and west coasts has grabbed headlines as a way to lower gasoline prices. Around and around, like bumper cars at an amusement park, opponents and proponents of leasing the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) bash into each other. But as ASPO-USA contributors have repeatedly noted, drilling the OCS will not materially impact oil supplies for a decade or more. The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts that these areas might provide 200,000 barrels/day by 2020-around 2 percent of our current consumption, or as much as we use every 15 minutes.

 

ASPO-USA, a non-partisan non-profit organization, does not have a position on whether to end the decades-old Congressional moratorium on OCS drilling. We do think that decision-makers, reporters, and editorial writers should realistically describe how much difference the moratoria areas might make. "Drill here, drill now, pay less" is a great slogan-but if the media spent as much time investigating the OCS as they have on whether Sarah Palin once shot a moose, we would all be better served.

This morning I went to Target to stock up on groceries and I debated whether to top off the tank in my car. My car's tank was half empty (or half full?). I saw at the Get-Go next to Target at I-90 and West 117th that gas was selling for $3.999 and cars were lined up at all 12 pumps. After I got back home and unloaded groceries, I realized I'd better get gas. The gas station down the street from me was selling gas for $4.099, so I went back to Get-Go and half of the pumps were closed, with the yellow plastic socks over the nozzles!

 

Did that mean they were running out of gasoline????

Calm before the storm, calm before the storm.

The storm is starting to happen.

http://www.ogj.com/display_article/339523/7/ONART/none/GenIn/1/Ike

 

Ike's supply toll rises as more closures reported

 

By OGJ editors

HOUSTON, Sept. 14 -- Assessments of Hurricane Ike's blow to US oil supply climbed as new closure reports reached government agencies.

 

The center of the wide storm made landfall near Galveston, Tex., in the early morning of Sept. 13, knocking out electrical power in most of Houston and many surrounding communities. Damage was widespread from a combination of unusually strong storm surge, a very large wind field, and windspeeds just below Category 3 hurricane status.

 

The Department of Energy's Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability added two refineries to the closure list it issued before the hurricane came ashore (OGJ Online, Sept. 12, 2008).

http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/21/news/economy/oil_price_floor/index.htm

 

Why oil won't fall below $100

With a surge in the price of global commodities, it's costing more to produce a barrel of oil than ever before.

By Steve Hargreaves, CNNMoney.com staff writer

Last Updated: August 22, 2008: 3:47 AM EDT

 

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Last week, falling oil prices looked unstoppable. The last few days have seen a halt in that slide. Still with prices well below the record set in July and a shaky world economy threatening demand, the question remains: How low can oil go?

 

Many analysts say oil is unlikely to go much lower than $100 a barrel, and it has to do with the rising cost of production.

 

The overall cost to produce oil has gone up, especially oil from tough to reach places like Canada's tar sands and the deep water Gulf of Mexico.

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080915/bs_nm/markets_oil_dc

I know. I'm pretty bummed. I'll be cheering it's next upward move.

haha

Funny thing is the experts in the article article mostly say oil will settle between $80-$90/barrel. Yet the headline implies something different. Then again, it's all about advertising hits. Truth? Eh.

 

Ken, I wasn't picking on ya, I just wanted to quote the article.

I know. I'm pretty bummed. I'll be cheering it's next upward move.

 

I'm all for moving to alternative sources of energy, but I certainly don't cheer for higher oil/gas prices.  I understand the effect that higher prices have on expediting development of new technology and I appreciate all the development that has already been done, but I don't agree with the idea that prices should be artificially increased to force change.  Low and middle income families are disproportionally effected by high gas prices.  We have an obligation to keep prices fair while still strongly supporting alternative energy development.

 

I know you probably aren't talking about artificially increasing the price so please don't take that statement the wrong way.  I just had to get it off my chest.  With all that being said, however, I'm also not opposed to increasing the gas tax by a few cents to support transit agencies and intercity rail development.  A few more cents would have a negligible effect on low/middle income families and the money could be used to give them more transportation options that are cost effective.

 

Sorry... a little off topic.  I know...

Not at all off-topic.

but I certainly don't cheer for higher oil/gas prices.

 

Neither do I. Granted, I'm all for better uses of land, more emphasis on transit, and stronger cities, but I just don't understand how people can cheer for high gas prices where the two aforementioned social classes are taking the highest hit.

It's 2008 and no replacement for the oil-based vehicles we all own has been found.  15 years ago, I would have bet that would not be the case.  Are we close?  Americans are not ready to move back to cities and take public transportation, but maybe at $20 a gallon they will be?  It's going to be a tough sell, that's for sure.  I grew up in the suburbs, moved to the city, but then moved back out.  Not sure what it would take to convince my wife to move into Cleveland/inner-ring suburbs.  I don't think she knew anyone who bought RTA monthly passes before she met me... ;)

George Allen: ‘Americans are not addicted to oil, they’re addicted to freedom.’

 

Today on Laura Ingraham’s radio show, former Virgina governor George Allen ® scoffed at claims that Americans are addicted to oil, calling it “an elitist point of view.” Allen insisted it was freedom, not oil, that Americans were actually addicted to:

 

  ALLEN: I love that statement, America is addicted to oil. What an elitist point of view. Americans are not addicted to oil. Americans are addicted to freedom — the freedom and liberty to move where and when we want.

 

Listen here:

 

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/09/15/george-allen-oil/

It's 2008 and no replacement for the oil-based vehicles we all own has been found. 15 years ago, I would have bet that would not be the case. Are we close?

 

There are several problems with a whole sale shift from petroleum based transportation fuels.  The first is what the fuel of the future will be.  Ethanol can't sustain the whole country, but it could be part of the solution.  Electric vehicles is probably the most viable solution, but there needs to be a large scale update of our electricity infrastructure and an increase of capacity above and beyond the normal annual increases.  Hydrogen fuel cells could also provide part of the solution, but the technology doesn't appear to be there yet.

 

Now before any of these solutions can take effect there needs to be a transition technology.  This appears to me to be the current and future hybrid vehicles... especially plug in hybrids.  Phasing in more hybrids will work to moderate the price of gasoline while the shift takes place.  Natural gas powered vehicles will also be part of the transition period.  It's important to realize that this shift from gasoline to an alternative has already started and will take 30+ years imo.  It will be a slow shift driven by increasing oil prices and a decreasing supply.

Neither do I. Granted, I'm all for better uses of land, more emphasis on transit, and stronger cities, but I just don't understand how people can cheer for high gas prices where the two aforementioned social classes are taking the highest hit.

 

Like we have any choice. Actually we do. Boost the gas tax in a big way, cut the income tax for the low/middle class, the sales tax for everyone and increase incentives/investment in alternative fuels, energy efficient construction materials, public transit and high speed rail. But we'd rather send $700 billion of Americans' money overseas each year and keep a large military presence in oil-rich areas just to satisfy our oil addiction.

 

And yes, it is an addiction. It's a destructive behavior that we cannot seem to stop doing because we're high on the lifestyle, even though it's not sustainable or healthy. And when the price goes up or someone suggests there are limits to oil consumption, we get angry and cry "conspiracy" as if it's our American birthright to consume all the oil we want.

If this guy is a creationist, then no wonder he doesn't understand peak oil.....

 

http://media.cleantech.com/3464/peak-oil-wrong-says-schwartz

 

Peak oil "wrong," says Schwartz

September 17, 2008 - Exclusive

By Dallas Kachan, Cleantech Group

 

"The peak oil people simply don't know what they're talking about," said environmental futurist Peter Schwartz today at the Cleantech Forum in Washington, D.C.

 

Forget everything you've heard about peak oil as a driver of clean technology, said futurist Peter Schwartz today in a provocative closing session at the Cleantech Forum XVIII in Washington D.C.

 

"The peak oil people simply don't know what they're talking about, they don't know the facts," claimed Schwartz, co-founder and chairman of the Global Business Network and author of five books.

 

Optimism: that wonderful euphoria you feel before reality sets in.

If this guy is a creationist, then no wonder he doesn't understand peak oil.....

I did not read anything to indicate he is a creationist.  Nice dig, though. 

Yeah, I'm not sure if he's a creationist or not. I read that to be more of a dig at Palin than an endorsement.

 

We are not going to run out of oil before the issue of climate change drives change. It'll be costly oil. But it'll be climate change catastrophes [such as sudden, unexpected displacement of large numbers of people, and massive property damage], and more expensive oil, not the fact that we're running out of oil, that will drive change," according to Schwartz.

 

Sounds like while he questions the peak oil theory (or at least the timing) that he's on board with the idea that fossil fuels are a driver to climate change.

but I certainly don't cheer for higher oil/gas prices.

 

Neither do I. Granted, I'm all for better uses of land, more emphasis on transit, and stronger cities, but I just don't understand how people can cheer for high gas prices where the two aforementioned social classes are taking the highest hit.

 

Change doesn't happen without a stimulus, which in this case, is high gas prices.  I cheer high gas prices because I want things to change.

 

I have no doubt that people will adapt (electric cars, telecommuting, rebuilding our communities, strengthening mass transit, etc...).  I also have no doubts that some will be slow to adapt and feel some pain.  That's life.

 

    Will the change be for the better or the worse? My guess is that cheap hydrocarbon energy is not going to be replaced with alternative energy. It is simply not going to be replaced.

http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2008/09/last-bailout.html

 

Friday, September 19, 2008

 

The Last Bailout

 

While watching this week's turmoil in the world markets, I thought back to a piece Howard Odum wrote in 1974. In it he wrote:

Worldwide inflation is driven in part by the increasing fraction of our fossil fuels that have to be used in getting more fossil and other fuels. If the money circulating is the same or increasing, and if the quality [of] energy reaching society for its general work is less because so much energy has to go immediately into the energy-getting process, then the real work to society per unit [of] money circulated is less. Money buys less real work of other types and thus money is worth less. Because the economy and total energy utilization are still expanding, we are misled to think the total value is expanding and we allow more money to circulate which makes the money-to-work ratio even larger.

I think what we are seeing is the convergence of colossal financial mismanagement with energy stringency. Not surprisingly the authorities think that only money is the problem, i.e., there isn't enough of it available to fill the holes created by the disappearing value of various types of financial instruments.

 

    Hubbert had another way of saying the same thing. For about 200 years, the economy expanded along with hydrocarbon use. The money supply expanded along with the economy. If the economy stops expanding, but the money supply continues to expand by inertia alone, then the money supply will grow faster than the economy and we will have inflation. 

 

Much more succinctly said!

Holy Schnikes!

 

Crude Oil (CL) $122.60 +$18.05

 

http://www.nymex.com/index.aspx

 

(When I first posted this, it was $118.00. I've updated it with a higher number a half-dozen times today. It's the greatest one-day rise in history.)

 

Another edit:  OK, so the price opened at $104.97 but had an intraday peak (thus far) of $130.00. WOW!

We are fugged. Someone mentioned to a few other forumers to stop scaring people. Be scared. This is real. It's happening sooner than ANYONE expected. The rich will take that bail out and then head for the hills. Mark my words.

I'll be hot on their heels (as will a lot of other villagers with pitchforks and torches).

Closing price today:  $127.01

I expected the $US to fall today.  It fell 1.6% vs. the Euro as of 3:00 P.M. EDT.  Some of that price rise is a factor of the falling dollar.  Not 18%, though

http://www.cnn.com/2008/LIVING/wayoflife/09/22/atlanta.gas.crunch/index.html

 

 

 

We are fugged. Someone mentioned to a few other forumers to stop scaring people. Be scared. This is real. It's happening sooner than ANYONE expected. The rich will take that bail out and then head for the hills. Mark my words.

 

Yup...better go stock up on bottled water and canned goods while you can.  Luckily I still have some leftover from Y2K.

It is also possible that the people with oil are manipulating the market in nasty ways. - that doesn't really speak to peak oil, but I don't we can assume everyone in the marketplace is a good actor.

Look to overseas news sources to find out what's happening here at home....

________________

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c27b429c-8b23-11dd-b634-0000779fd18c.html?nclick_check=1

 

Oil output losses worse than feared

By Javier Blas in London and Sheila McNulty in Houston

 

Published: September 26 2008 00:57 | Last updated: September 26 2008 00:57

 

The amount of oil production losses caused by hurricanes Ike and Gustav in the energy-rich US Gulf of Mexico is far greater than initially predicted, helping to keep prices above $100 (€68, £54) a barrel in spite of slower economic growth.

 

Refineries have been particularly badly hit, with a lack of power slowing their return to operation. The output drop is forcing fuel distributors to draw down the country’s gasoline stocks to the lowest level in 41 years to maintain supplies.

 

....

"There's no end in sight to higher oil prices, unless the world economy absolutely collapses" -- Matt Simmons

 

Full article at: 

http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/15/news/economy/500dollaroil_okeefe.fortune/index.htm

----- I highly recommend going to the link.  Simmons is getting more and more blunt.  He calls McCain clueless to a room full of conservative businessmen...

 

Here comes $500 oil

If Matt Simmons is right, the recent drop in crude prices is an illusion - and oil could be headed for the stratosphere. He's just hoping we can prevent civilization from imploding.

By Brian O'Keefe, senior editor

Last Updated: September 22, 2008: 4:43 PM EDT

 

(Fortune Magazine) -- Matt Simmons is as perplexed as anyone that it has fallen to him to take on OPEC, Exxon, the Saudis, and all the other misguided defenders of conventional wisdom in the oil patch. Why should one investment banker with a penchant for research be required to point out what he regards as the obvious - that from here on out, oil supplies can't meet demand, and if we don't act soon to solve this crisis, World War III could be looming?

 

Why should a man who scorns most environmentalists have to argue that locally grown produce and wind power are the way of the future? Why should a lifelong Republican need to be the one to point out that his party's new mantra - "Drill, baby, drill!" - won't really fix anything and that his party's presidential candidate is clueless about energy? That the spike in oil prices earlier this year wasn't a temporary market anomaly and the recent retreat in prices is just a misleading calm before a calamitous storm? That we're headed toward $500-a-barrel oil?

 

"I find it ironic that here we have the biggest industry on earth, and I'm one of the few people to figure out that we have a major problem," he says, in his confident if not quite brash way. "And I did it all in my spare time. How stupid and tragic is that? I shouldn't be one of the only folks that actually has a handful of ideas of how we can keep from blowing each other up and get through this."....

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gildone, I posted that article on the previous page. It was long, but does that ever stop me?!?! ;)

^oops.  Sorry.  What's really sad, is that I looked on the previous page and still missed it.  Oh well, I've never claimed to be the brightest bulb on the tree...

 

 

Intelligence doesn't make someone's vision better or worse. Back on topic...

A short-term view; a long-term view......

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/economicNews/idUSN0229758820081002?sp=true

 

Analyst says recession could drag oil below $50

Thu Oct 2, 2008 5:52pm EDT

 

By Scott Haggett

 

CALGARY, Alberta, Oct 2 (Reuters) - A deep and sustained worldwide recession could push oil prices below $50 a barrel, oil analyst Philip Verleger said on Thursday, as the ongoing financial crisis cuts demand.

 

Verleger, an independent oil analyst who recently joined the University of Calgary's Haskayne School of Business, said in an interview that oil prices will not stay at current levels near $100 if the global economy skids into recession and economic activity slows, dragging down demand for crude.

 

"If we really have a serious recession you could see prices fall below $50 a barrel," he said. "And this is not just the U.S., this is global."

 

.....

http://africa.reuters.com/energyandoil/news/usnL7350693.html?rpc=401

 

OPEC exports down 50,000 in 4 wks to Sept 21-LMIU

Tue 7 Oct 2008, 15:23 GMT

 

[-] Text [+] LONDON, Oct 7 (Reuters) - OPEC seaborne oil exports, excluding Angola and Ecuador, fell 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the four weeks to Sept. 21 and were down sharply from Gulf suppliers, Lloyd's Marine Intelligence (LMIU) said on Tuesday.

 

LMIU said oil shipments from 11 OPEC producers, including Iraq, fell to 23.528 million bpd versus 23.582 milllion bpd in the four weeks to Aug. 31.

 

......

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/feedarticle/7846178

 

US oil production at lowest level since 1946-gov't

 

Reuters, Tuesday October 7 2008

 

WASHINGTON, Oct 7 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil production this year is expected to fall below 5 million barrels per day for the first time since shortly after World War Two, the government's top energy forecasting agency said on Tuesday.

......

I never thought about the financing crisis exacerbating oil supply problems. That thought is making its rounds throughout the peak oil crowd. This piece is one example...

_________________________

 

http://postcarbon.org/say_goodbye_peak_oil

 

Say Goodbye to Peak Oil

Submitted by Richard Heinberg on October 8, 2008 - 5:08pm.

 

Now that the world’s credit markets are suffering the equivalent of a cardiac arrest, one can confidently say that the peak in global oil production is behind us. With demand for oil declining (because of global recession), OPEC will want to constrain production. With investment capital disappearing in a deflationary bonfire, oil companies will have difficulty financing new projects (even if they have full governmental go-ahead to drill, baby, drill). Thus even though the peak might have been delayed for another year or five if the credit crunch hadn’t intervened, that time cushion is now effectively gone.

 

This is not to say that Peak Oil should no longer to be considered to be of importance. In the larger, longer view of things, the energy decline will be the determining factor in the fate of our civilization—not a money or credit crisis.

 

When the world finally begins to recover from its financial turmoil (and this could take a few years), and oil demand picks back up again, the economy will bump up against oil supply constraints and petroleum prices will skyrocket, undermining the economic recovery.

OK, here's a better one, from the Toronto Globe & Mail.....

 

http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/LAC.20081009.RBANKSALBERTA09/TPStory/?query=

 

GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: $110-BILLION GONE IN SIX WEEKS

 

'Armageddon' in the oil patch

NORVAL SCOTT

 

October 9, 2008

 

CALGARY -- Jeffery Tonken has lost a fortune over the past six weeks.

 

"It's Armageddon out there," Mr. Tonken, the chief executive officer of junior oil and gas company Birchcliff Energy Ltd., said yesterday.

 

"I've lost millions. Everyone has."

 

The value of Canada's energy companies has been devastated since oil plunged from record levels in the summer. Among the 58 companies in the S&P/TSX capped energy index, about $110-billion in market value has been wiped out in the past six weeks, calculations show.

 

......

Or this. The gist is, if you want a steady flow of oil, the oil price is going to have to stay above $100 to make the difficult projects cost-effective. And as we exhaust more and more of the low-hanging fruit, the price of oil will have to keep going up to afford ever-more expensive projects to reach more difficult-to-reach oil...

 

http://www.financialpost.com/news/story.html?id=863968

 

Oil sands stocks hit 52-week lows on financing fears

Carrie Tait, Financial Post 

Published: Monday, October 06, 2008

 

CALGARY -- A slew of Canada's most respected oil and gas outfits slammed into 52-week lows during Monday's tumultuous trading session, highlighting fears that companies in the oil patch face a struggle to rustle up the cash necessary to plow ahead with expensive projects.

 

....

http://www.fcnp.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3614:the-peak-oil-crisis-mea-culpa&catid=17:national-commentary&Itemid=79

 

The Peak Oil Crisis: Mea Culpa     

Written by Tom Whipple   

Thursday, 09 October 2008 10:16 

 

Earlier this week The Washington Post's media critic, Howard Kurtz, published an apology on behalf of the media for its weak coverage of the multi-year run-up to the current financial debacle.

 

To quote the Post, "The shaky house of financial cards that has come tumbling down was erected largely in public view: overextended investment banks, risky practices by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, exotic mortgage instruments that became part of a shadow banking system. But while these were conveyed in incremental stories -- and a few whistle-blowing columns -- the business press never conveyed a real sense of alarm until institutions began to collapse."

 

.....

It was the high oil prices of the summer that mostly likely shifted this from being a recession into something more transformative and severe. They killed the golden goose - as the oil producing countries seem to do this about once a generation. The 80s saw a similar run-up and then crash because it destroyed a lot of demand and helped drive investment (some of which won't happen if oil goes to 55 dollars which is the word out there now).

 

It may be peak oil or it may be folks manipulating the market for nefarious means (i think its both), but nonetheless the speculative bubble of the summer had absolutely no good data to support it.

Have you read past everything in this thread or simply dismissed the fundamentals?

Friday, Oct. 10, 2008

Is Cheaper Oil A Good Thing?

By Vivienne Walt / Paris

 

How far can it fall? People have been anxiously wondering as they watch the plunging stock market. But increasingly the same question is being asked about another crucial figure: the price of oil.

 

It has plummeted nearly 40% in just three months, from about $147 a barrel in July to below $83 on Friday, with no obvious bottom in sight. If that sounds good, you are probably a driver who winces these days at filling your gas tank. But the downward spiral could mean trouble for oil-rich countries and for the environment.

 

Oil analysts admit that most of them failed to predict how fast oil prices would drop. Just a few months ago, some were saying oil might reach $200 a barrel by year's end. "The analysts have been quite surprised by the pace and volatility of the decline," says David Fyfe, senior oil analyst for the International Energy Agency in Paris, which as a rule does not predict oil prices. "The volatility has been quite marked."

 

Click to Print Find this article at:

http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1849215,00.html

 

Screw Venezuela. I hope we don't get our oil from them anymore. That country is getting on my nerves.