November 30, 200618 yr Transport for the Long Emergency - runs on plant cellulose, provides transportation and dairy foods, and the by-product can be fermented for methane and then recycled to grow more plant cellulose. It can reproduce itself, and when it wears out or breaks down, you can eat it.
November 30, 200618 yr And the vehicles in the background aren't bad either for the long-emergency. I suspect you could use wood in them -- a lot more renewable than coal or oil. Too bad you can't eat it when it breaks down. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
November 30, 200618 yr Yep. I think everyone at that show was burning coal, from the looks of the smoke. Nowadays most shows provide coal but because of the cost they request that engineers burn wood unless they're involved in a demonstration that requires maximum power. Sawmills are a major activity at virtually every show in areas where trees grow, so there's always an abundance of good hardwood slabs and scrap. In most cases you can get just about as much power out of wood as out of coal on those engines, but if you're working hard, it takes a lot of it, requiring a lot of firing and generating a lot of embers in the air. Another reason for burning wood is that if the atmospheric conditions aren't right at a big show with a lot of engines, coal smoke can get really bad. I spent four days at a show where there were about thirty engines all burning coal, and I thought I'd die from black lung before it was over. The scene looked like old photos of Pittsburgh in the 1940s. With a couple of small exceptions, most makers quit building steam engines for farm use in the 1920s, and a few survived on the job into or through WWII, after which wear and tear and manpower requirements sent most of them to the scrappers. When steam was popular, though, most builders could configure an engine to burn straw, for threshing outfits on the great plains. Coal was expensive there because it had to be hauled long distances, and wood was scarce, but wheat straw was abundant during threshing and the labor required to use it was cheap. They'd fit a big funnel-shaped hopper onto the firebox door, and set up the threshing machine so the straw came out near the engine. They'd have three or four boys whose job it was to constantly deliver huge bunches of straw to the engine where one person did nothing but stuff it into the firebox as fast as the firebox would accomodate it.
December 1, 200618 yr Gas prices drive conservation Car-buying, driving habits changing, study says Friday, December 01, 2006 Robert Tuttle BLOOMBERG NEWS Higher-than-normal gasoline prices in the past two years have prompted American motorists to shop for fuel-efficient vehicles and drive less, slowing the growth of fuel demand, according to a report released yesterday by Cambridge Energy Research Associates in Cambridge, Mass. Pump prices climbed above $3 a gallon during the past two summers. At the same time, consumption growth slowed from an average 1.7 percent a year in the past 20 years to 0.3 percent in 2005 and an expected 1 percent this year, the report said. "Prices definitely matter," said Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy and one of the authors of the report. "You see it in terms of gasoline consumption, you see it in miles driven, and you see it in what people buy." http://dispatch.com/business-story.php?story=dispatch/2006/12/01/20061201-G1-00.html
December 1, 200618 yr Good report, though Yergin considers peak oil to be at worst something that's many decades away and at best a fallacy. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
December 1, 200618 yr I'll be impressed when that 1.7% increase in consumption turns into a 1.7% decrease in consumption. 1.7% to 1.0% is hardly something to be proud of. Also, was anyone else shocked that 53% of our vehicles purchased are "light trucks"? I realize that it's trending in the right direction, but to have over half of your vehicles sold get an average of 17 mpg is pathetic. This peice was particluarly disturbing...Thanks Melloncamp!!! In recent months, however, moderating gasoline prices have sent sales of light trucks back up. For example, in September, the Ford F-series pickup and Chevrolet’s Silverado pickup were the topselling vehicles for the month.
December 2, 200618 yr I'll be impressed when that 1.7% increase in consumption turns into a 1.7% decrease in consumption. Give it a few years. Some analysts are forecasting an 8% decrease in consumption!
December 7, 200618 yr http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16077694/ Poverty follows families to the suburbs Suburban poor outnumber their inner-city counterparts for the first time WASHINGTON - As Americans flee the cities for the suburbs, many are failing to leave poverty behind. The suburban poor outnumbered their inner-city counterparts for the first time last year, with more than 12 million suburban residents living in poverty, according to a study of the nation’s 100 largest metropolitan areas released Thursday. “Economies are regional now,” said Alan Berube, who co-wrote the report for the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. “Where you see increases in city poverty, in almost every metropolitan area, you also see increases in suburban poverty.” Nationally, the poverty rate leveled off last year at 12.6 percent after increasing every year since the decade began. It was a period when the country went through a recession and an uneven recovery that is still sputtering in parts of the Northeast and Midwest. “Looking back at the 1970s, you would have seen cities suffering and suburbs staying the same,” said Berube, research director at the Brookings Institution’s Metropolitan Policy Program. “But the story is different today.”
December 7, 200618 yr Good article, but I'm not sure I understand why this is posted in the Peak Oil thread. There's a number of threads in the City Discussion section where this article could have been posted to keep the discussion on topic. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
December 14, 200618 yr Lets make some predictions for the new year and see who was closest this time next year. 1) highest price of a gallon of gas for one week in 2007 (US average) 2) highest price for a barrell of light sweet crude for 2007 3) lowest price of a gallon of gas 2007 4) the exact price of gas on december 13, 2007 all prices are in US$, all gas prices are for 87 octane (whatever is cheapest at a legitimate gas station, don't count Costco, Sams Club or Kroger Fuels or whoever offers discount shopper rates)
December 14, 200618 yr 1) highest price of a gallon of gas for one week in 2007 (US average) $4.50 2) highest price for a barrell of light sweet crude for 2007 $95 3) lowest price of a gallon of gas 2007 $2.00 4) the exact price of gas on december 13, 2007 $2.63
December 14, 200618 yr Anyone who knows these answers shouldn't be spending time here. Rather, they should be visiting www.nymex.com and spending money on the futures markets! "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
December 15, 200618 yr Closest w/o going over? Who are you? Bob Barker!? :lol: Nub contestant: "I bid $10.00 for gas prices." Nub contestant 2: "I bid $10.01, Bob." Bob: "You're both over, get off my show."
December 20, 200618 yr Presentation given at the Atlantic Planning Conference in Nova Scotia in October. The guy hits the ball out of the park: Planning and Peak Oil: http://www.atlanticplanners.org/Events/Conferences/2006%20Conference/2006API%20Principles%20of%20Post-Peak%20Planning.pdf
December 21, 200618 yr ^He's preaching to the choir, of course, but it's the best sermon I've heard in a while. I think he takes a lot of what Kunstler has written, and packages it very tightly and concisely. It's a persuasive presentation, and considering that he's directing it at planners, I think he's right on target.
December 21, 200618 yr I was reading through it from another source, and was so impressed with it before even finishing it that I wanted to post it here. But wouldn't ya know Gildone beat me to it! Everyone should read this presentation! http://www.atlanticplanners.org/Events/Conferences/2006%20Conference/2006API%20Principles%20of%20Post-Peak%20Planning.pdf +++++++++++++ By the way, I like this section!..... _____ Now before you get too rosy a picture about the impending phoenix-like rebirth of Flint, Michigan and all that... at a global scale, rising ene rgy prices will probably result in less industrial activity overall. You use energy to make stuff and you can compensate by being more efficient but at some point there’s just less and less energy to make stuff. So at a global scale, industry is likely to decline. But since proximity to markets will become such a relative advantage, places that currently have next to no manufacturing—like, say, most of the rustbelt cities that used to be industrial centers in Canada and the U.S.—will get more than they have now. Less overall, but a different distribution. Again, railroads and seaports are going to be a big advantage. If common sense has any say in the matter, we’ll be manufacturing different things than we do now. I wouldn’t place any bets on the auto sector or the Boeing plant. But companies that make buses and trains, wind turbines, solar panels, bicycles, plus a lot of basic necessities, are going to have good reasons to set up in Cleveland or Hamilton or Moncton. Your economic development department should really be getting on the stick here. _____ Cleveland's location on a navigable waterway is a huge advantage for us. But what we do with that advantage is up to us. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
December 21, 200618 yr The ohio river will be a lot more important as well. Good for Cincinnati and Louisville, not so good for Indianapolis and Lexington.
December 21, 200618 yr Presentation given at the Atlantic Planning Conference in Nova Scotia in October. The guy hits the ball out of the park: Planning and Peak Oil: http://www.atlanticplanners.org/Events/Conferences/2006%20Conference/2006API%20Principles%20of%20Post-Peak%20Planning.pdf What's with only a few images showing up? Is it just my crappy PC, or should I look for an alternate version, if there is one?
December 21, 200618 yr I saw images on every page, usually near the top with explanatory text below. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
December 21, 200618 yr KJP: Cleveland does have an advantage with it's port, but only if global warming/climate change doesn't result in a significant drop in the level of Lake Erie, which is a possibility. A three-foot drop will end commerical/industrial navigation on the Cuyahoga River. More than that and it may affect the port at the mouth as well. Lake Erie's water level is directly related to the water levels in Lake Huron and Lake Superior. Last I heard, Lake Superior's water level may be reaching a new low. P.S. I got the presentation from the same source you did, KJP. You beat me to the punch with the Paris trams article a couple of days ago, so now we're even :wink:
December 21, 200618 yr Cleveland's location on a navigable waterway is a huge advantage for us. But what we do with that advantage is up to us. Somehow I doubt that many people in city and county government even know what peak oil is, and if NOACA knows, they probably don't care.
December 21, 200618 yr Several Cleveland City Council members do. And the amazing thing is that they mentioned it to me first. Who? Councilmen Cummins, Cimperman and Zone. All good guys. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
December 25, 200618 yr Too bad we have to go to Turkish news sources to get this stuff.... ________________ http://www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=62496 ANKARA - TDN with wire services Alarm bells are ringing on the issue of security of global energy supplies, International Energy Agency (IEA) Chief Economist Dr. Fatih Birol said Friday at a press conference in Istanbul. “The threat to the world's energy security, especially on oil and natural gas, will reach serious dimensions in the next 10 years,” he added. Energy and Natural Resources Minister Hilmi Güler and Birol co-hosted the press conference at which they commented on a report prepared by the IEA titled “World Energy Outlook 2006.” "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
December 26, 200618 yr Again, we must look overseas for news that goes beyond what is needed to keep U.S. sabers a-rattling. http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/Display_news.asp?section=World_News&subsection=Gulf%2C+Middle+East+%26+Africa&month=December2006&file=World_News2006122611734.xml Iran’s nuclear drive linked to looming oil crisis: US study Web posted at: 12/26/2006 1:17:34 Source ::: AFP WASHINGTON • Iran's nuclear ambitions are motivated not just by a desire for regional supremacy but by a potentially devastating crisis in its oil industry, a US researcher said in a report made public yesterday. Iran's image is of a muscular oil producer with plentiful reserves, but in fact it could soon face its own energy crunch owing to failing infrastructure and lack of investments, Roger Stern at Johns Hopkins University said. Writing in the respected Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States, the professor of geography and environmental engineering said Iran's oil problems have the potential to topple the clerical regime. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
December 28, 200618 yr I remember reading somewhere, a while back, about secret U.S. contingency plans for invading Canada, should it become necessary. Maybe now is the time. We should be able to accomplish this mission with fewer civilian casualties than in Iraq, at lower cost. The cultural and language barriers are less severe (except maybe in Quebec), and the cost of transporting troops, equipment and supplies will be less. We should be prepared for an insurgency, though. There still are expatriate Americans up there who fled the U.S. during the Vietnam era, and they'll fear being called to account for themselves. :roll:
December 31, 200618 yr A note to add: the fact that the U.S. is the world's third-largest producer of oil and yet we still import 60 percent of our annual supply only shows how oil-gluttonous we really are. Anyway, on with the article... ______________ http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=27661 Production Means Investment By Elliott H. Gue 31 Dec 2006 at 03:04 AM EST MCLEAN, Va. (EnergyStrategist.com) -- Here's a New Year's challenge for you: Name the top three largest oil-producing countries in the world. If you're like most investors, you probably know that the world's largest oil producer is Saudi Arabia. In 2005, Saudi Arabia churned out more than 11 million barrels of oil per day, roughly 13.5 percent of the world's total supply. And you may have guessed the world's second-largest producer: the Russian Federation. In 2005, Russia chipped in about 9.5 million barrels per day, a bit more than 12 percent of the total global production. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
December 31, 200618 yr It's amazing how some people are absolutely blind to the big picture. Oil prices may drop into $50s by spring. But will they stay "that low"? Of course not. Not unless we make major transportation and land use policy changes in this country! ___________________ http://www.nypost.com/seven/12292006/business/the_worst_could_be_over_for_high_oil_prices_business_paul_tharp.htm THE WORST COULD BE OVER FOR HIGH OIL PRICES By PAUL THARP Click to enlarge graphic.December 29, 2006 -- The economy-wrecking nightmare of skyrocketing oil prices may be coming to an end, with cheaper $50-a-barrel oil becoming the norm through springtime. Energy analysts say that hair-trigger trading - which had threatened in the summer to send crude soaring to $100 a barrel - has become virtually obsolete almost overnight as investors have grown immune to bad news. Investors are also wary of getting burned on rapid swings in oil prices - usually fanned by fickle geopolitical events ranging from failed suicide terrorist attacks on Saudi refineries to rallies of noisy Hamas thugs. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
December 31, 200618 yr That chart is exactly the reason why I'm skeptical about falling off of a "post peak oil cliff". Just look at the relationship between the respective countries' bars. The US has some of the most developed fields in the world and we're still #3. We're using advanced recovery techniques like CO2 floods that Saudi hasn't even needed to think about yet because their huge fields are still fairly young (relative to the US anyway). They've just begun another round of aggressive drilling in new supergiant fields, and continued drilling in thier existing fields. We may see a rough period of 4-6 years ahead as demand rises and output falls from aging fields, but this new oil from the Saudis coupled with oil sands and Jack 2 in the gulf will begin hitting the market around 2010-2012.
December 31, 200618 yr I don't see a cliff either, barring geopolitical factors or extraction technologies that end up damaging reserviors/wells (see Saudi Arabia for examples of both issues). Another factor: if we use extraction technologies only to deny the existence of an impending crisis, rather than using the time we've bought ourselves wisely to reorient lifestyles away from oil dependency. So far, we're engaged in the former. The supply curve (and our denial) can only be propped up for so long. That's when a supply cliff would likely happen. It's better to use extraction technologies to make the descent gradual than to enable the addiction. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
December 31, 200618 yr I'd agree with that. I have a lot of faith in markets though, especially when they are as well diversified as transportation fuels. That said, market corrections can be pretty painful, and I think we are probably at the beginning of one. There really aren't any new supplies coming to the rescue within the next few years, and it doesn't look like our demand is as responsive to price as many analysts hoped. I'm just glad I drive a fuel efficient car and live within walking distance to work and a grocery store!
January 1, 200718 yr That chart is exactly the reason why I'm skeptical about falling off of a "post peak oil cliff". Just look at the relationship between the respective countries' bars. The US has some of the most developed fields in the world and we're still #3. We're using advanced recovery techniques like CO2 floods that Saudi hasn't even needed to think about yet because their huge fields are still fairly young (relative to the US anyway). They've just begun another round of aggressive drilling in new supergiant fields, and continued drilling in thier existing fields. We may see a rough period of 4-6 years ahead as demand rises and output falls from aging fields, but this new oil from the Saudis coupled with oil sands and Jack 2 in the gulf will begin hitting the market around 2010-2012. But the US has been flooding oil fields since the 1920s to boost output. And no, I don't know if that's bragging or complaing. :|
January 1, 200718 yr I've been on board with both recommendations for a while. Almost all the lights in my house are compact fluorescents, and even with my extensive computer time, my electric bill usually runs $25 to $30, maybe $35 in summer with central air. In October I swapped my 18-20mpg pickup for a 30-35mpg compact station wagon. Even though I drive less than many people (no commute), I noticed a significant drop in my monthly gasoline expense.
January 1, 200718 yr What's a compact station wagon? When I think of station wagons, the word compact certainly doesn't come to mind.
January 1, 200718 yr “You use efficiency to stop demand growth,” he said. I don't think it's that simple. Say you switch to a more fuel efficient car, and you drive the same number of miles that you drove last year, and save 100 gallons. Your neighbor can then use that hundred gallons to take a trip to Yellowstone. Collectively, we use all of the oil available to us.
January 1, 200718 yr What's a compact station wagon? When I think of station wagons, the word compact certainly doesn't come to mind. An example would be a Ford Focus wagon.
January 1, 200718 yr “You use efficiency to stop demand growth,” he said. I don't think it's that simple. Say you switch to a more fuel efficient car, and you drive the same number of miles that you drove last year, and save 100 gallons. Your neighbor can then use that hundred gallons to take a trip to Yellowstone. Collectively, we use all of the oil available to us. Not entirely true. From the mid 1970's until the mid 1980's, the US economy grew while per-capita energy consumption dropped due to adoption of energy efficiency measures throughout the economy, more efficient cars, etc. Then the price of oil dropped, and we got wasteful again-- bought bigger cars, moved farther from work and bought bigger houses.
January 1, 200718 yr What's a compact station wagon? When I think of station wagons, the word compact certainly doesn't come to mind. An example would be a Ford Focus wagon. Bingo! Focus wagon (ZXW) is maybe a foot longer than the hatchback. It's peppy and nimble in traffic, and capable and comfortable on the highway. The sticker says 27/34 mpg, but I'm doing a little better than that most of the time.
January 1, 200718 yr "Not entirely true. From the mid 1970's until the mid 1980's, the US economy grew while per-capita energy consumption dropped due to adoption of energy efficiency measures throughout the economy, more efficient cars, etc. Then the price of oil dropped, and we got wasteful again-- bought bigger cars, moved farther from work and bought bigger houses." And so it goes. It doesn't happen in a day. When the price of oil dropped, people bought bigger cars. That's the point. We use all of the oil available to us. Taken another way, the average car in 1970 got what, 10 mpg? If everyone bought more efficient cars that got 20 mpg, we should be able to save 50% of our oil use, right? Well, it didn't work that way. People bought more or bigger cars and drove more miles. More people starting driving, also, both because population increased and the proportion of people who owned cars increased. The point is this: more efficient cars do not change the volume of oil used, although they may deliver more miles for a given amount of oil. In the 1970's, oil use per person declined because it had to. Not only did we have less oil available, but we also had more people. The total economy may have grown because oil is not the only natural resource in our economy, although it is a very important one.
January 2, 200718 yr But my point is that for those 10 or so years, we did NOTuse all the oil available to us, we bought less of it. Saudi Arabia had to reduce their production for several years. We don't have to use all the oil available to us, or at least we wouldn't have to if energy and transportation policies were more holistic and designed to optimize efficiency. And, energy consumption across the board did drop because building construction got a lot more energy efficient in the 70's. We waste a huge amount of energy in this country. We could consume quite a bit less with no change in standard of living if we would get the policies right-- in other words it is most certainly possible to NOT use all of the energy available to us. .
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