June 6, 200718 yr ragerunner, I don't know why you continue to harp on the exact same numbers time and time again. Yes the office vacancy rate is at higher than normal level, but so is the level of ownership amongst office tenants (thus skewing the true vacancy/occupancy rate). The consumption rate you continue to cite is a rate that has been based on condos in the $300,000+ market. The market for middle class households has been completely untapped, and it is being seen that, that is the greatest potential for all urban housing markets. I would put money on a project that was offering $180-200,000 condos...plain and simple it will sell; and at a higher rate of consumption than the over tapped baby-boomer market. Don't be soo quick to write on Cincy. You seem to take 'stats' a little too negatively at time...now I might very well see them too positively, but I would venture to say that there is a more correct happy medium between you and I.
June 6, 200718 yr First, are you saying the Bortz (chairman of Cincinnati City Council's economic development committee and downtown developer) doesn't understand market forces and what is going on in the market in downtown Cincy? Its not just me saying downtown Cincy has a supply and demand issue when it comes to condos, he said it to. Second, so are you saying that the Banks developers are going to mainly build condos in the high 100s? Let see, high cost for the project to be constructed usually means the developer must increase the square footage cost for the units, not decrease the cost for units. However you want to look at downtown's office vacancy rate it makes no difference. Until you either pre-sign a big lease or bring downtown class A office space to under 10% (which is not going to happen anytime soon) major new office construction is going to be either limited or not at all. I am not trying to be a butt about this, its just how the business and financing world looks at projects. I have been in that position, working with developers that are working on the financing for projects and sometimes the numbers just don't workout or it takes a lot more time and redesign of the project to make the numbers work. This concept applys to most markets, Indy, Columbus, K.C. etc... That is why downtown Indy has not seen any major for lease construction of Class A office space in some time. They have added some owner build projects like the Simon tower, Lilly and the research park downtown, but that is about it. Do you honestly believe that AIG would bail on a project this big if the data and numbers looked good? NO! Can they find someone else, probably, but how that affects the design of the project and its timeline maybe interesting.
June 6, 200718 yr Doesn't anyone think that the condos at the banks will sell faster and do better than condos in the CBD just because they will be in the long awaited Banks? The CBD has much to offer, but a whole new neighborhood contructed right along a park which abuts the river, and between the two stadiums will be much more of a draw than just some people wanting to escape cutting the grass. I think the neighborhood will be a destination, and finding residents will not be a problem.
June 6, 200718 yr Doesn't anyone think that the condos at the banks will sell faster and do better than condos in the CBD just because they will be in the long awaited Banks? The CBD has much to offer, but a whole new neighborhood contructed right along a park which abuts the river, and between the two stadiums will be much more of a draw than just some people wanting to escape cutting the grass. I think the neighborhood will be a destination, and finding residents will not be a problem. I guess AIG financial didn't think so. We will just have to wait and see what happens.
June 6, 200718 yr First, are you saying the Bortz (chairman of Cincinnati City Council's economic development committee and downtown developer) doesn't understand market forces and what is going on in the market in downtown Cincy? Its not just me saying downtown Cincy has a supply and demand issue when it comes to condos, he said it to. I agree and have said that downtown has a supply/demand issue on units priced at 300k and above. You are simply making assumptions if you say that more reasonably priced condos will also struggle...mainly because, there is nothing to base it from. Second, so are you saying that the Banks developers are going to mainly build condos in the high 100s? Let see, high cost for the project to be constructed usually means the developer must increase the square footage cost for the units, not decrease the cost for units. To be honest I don't know what they'll end up doing...I would assume higher-end from the speculation that I have heard, but does that make it the right fit for the project or the market?? This is a problem in every urban market...and one of the great issues that Urban Planners have to deal with. When a market becomes successful prices go up...thus driving out almost all low and middle income residents. At the same time, those low and middle income residents make up the vast majority of our nation's population. It should be a goal to attract those working class families and individuals back to the inner-city. Until that happens you will continue to see Liberty Twp's, West Chester's, Batavia's, and so on be successful. The inner-city can not compete economically with those locations. I don't see anything wrong with encouraging developers to build housing in the 100-200k range. As planners this is a situation that we are challenged with to work out...right!?!? However you want to look at downtown's office vacancy rate it makes no difference. Until you either pre-sign a big lease or bring downtown class A office space to under 10% (which is not going to happen anytime soon) major new office construction is going to be either limited or not at all. I am not trying to be a butt about this, its just how the business and financing world looks at projects. I have been in that position, working with developers that are working on the financing for projects and sometimes the numbers just don't workout or it takes a lot more time and redesign of the project to make the numbers work. This concept applys to most markets, Indy, Columbus, K.C. etc... That is why downtown Indy has not seen any major for lease construction of Class A office space in some time. They have added some owner build projects like the Simon tower, Lilly and the research park downtown, but that is about it. All I can say is that downtown's office market is fine. If 5/3 or Federated decides to pack up and leave then that would be another issue, but that is a long-shot to say the least. It is also another conversation for another thread. Do you honestly believe that AIG would bail on a project this big if the data and numbers looked good? NO! Can they find someone else, probably, but how that affects the design of the project and its timeline maybe interesting. Many reasons can go into a decision for someone to back out of something like this. I'll reserve my judgment on why they pulled out for when someone actually specifies a reason. Until then it is just speculation. You are once again reading into this what you want...and what the Enquirer is telling. Yes AIG is pulling out, but at the same time there also seems to be multiple other sources ready and eager to step up and fund this project...are you saying that only AIG has a valid stance on what the market forces are?!? There was a lot of to-do when the city balked at Corporex and didn't allow them to proceed as developers. During this flux time Corporex "pulled out"...I feel that has turned out to be a good thing for the city...Todd Portune seems to think this is also a good thing that AIG pulled out. The powers at be don't seem to be too worried about this, and some actually seemed pleased. Maybe there was some pressure being put on AIG that they didn't like or that they were afraid of. Either way, lets wait and see what actually happens before we start spelling doom and gloom on Downtown and Cincinnati again.
June 6, 200718 yr No doom and gloom here, just reality check with data (same thing Bortz did with his comments). You are right I don't know they left because the numbers didn't add up, but you don't know they left because the numbers did add up and it was just other forces that made them pull out. Like I said above, we will just have to wait and see were this goes and what the final plans and timeline for phase 1 will actually be.
June 6, 200718 yr No doom and gloom here, just reality check with data. You are right I don't know they left because the numbers didn't add up, but you don't know they left because the numbers did add up and it was just other forces that made them pull out. Like I said above, we will just have to wait and see were this goes and what the final plans and timeline for phase 1 will actually be. Exactly my point...I see the glass as half full, you see it half empty. Who's right...I don't know yet. But as of right now, the facts are that AIG has pulled out and the leaders behind this project don't seem too worried, and have stated that the project is going to stay on it's current schedule. Until those sentiments change, then my position will remain where it's at.
June 6, 200718 yr Ragerunner, your assumption is way off for one reason: Yes, back in the day condo prices would be a lot more affordable, but as of right now, the market has forced the prices in DT Cincinnati to skyrocket! If you had more of a 150K-200K range, you would see an explosion of buyers. There's just too much of a demand to live in the city center and with the cost of real estate DT, it's almost impossible to own anything. Hell, even rent is outrageous. I had a 1 bedroom loft in DT and it cost me roughly $1,000/month. The condo and housing market has dropped significantly in the US, in the midwest and in downtown Cincy. These guys are not stupid. So, in other words, when the Banks finds another financial backer and/or another condo project gets built ... you'll be saying that the condo market is right in the US and even better in Cincinnati? I'm sorry, but when you've got people waiting 2+ years for their condo to be constructed, that doesn't seem too bad to me.
June 6, 200718 yr ^Ignore my post, I see everyone else has said the same thing that I did, lol. and by everyone...you mean me! I am soo wise. :laugh:
June 7, 200718 yr ^Ignore my post, I see everyone else has said the same thing that I did, lol. Here is an interesting article from Columbus on Condos sales and the ability to construct condos in the 150s to 200,000 range. http://dispatch.com/dispatch/content/local_news/stories/2007/05/30/DT_REAL.ART_ART_05-30-07_B1_EJ6S190.html I know, some how Cincy will be different than, Columbus, Indy, and just about every major city in the US right now. Feel free to discount all market forces, to ignore the basic economics of supply and demand, and the concepts of land values and how they are related to square footage costs. It still doesn't change the reality. Will the Banks get built, I think so. But, the size and timeline of the project is the main questions. Will they be able to sell condo units, yes, but will it be at the expense of other condo projects downtown, probably yes. Weather you like it or not Cincy's downtown market has only so much demand, and its clear that the supply level is getting out of hand. I wonder how long before the local development community downtown or media finally admits the market is overprices and over built. They are admitting it in Columbus, in Indy and many other cities. When will Cincy and its developers finally admit the obvious. Once again, look at the state of downtown reports for the last year or year and half and tell me sales have not dropped in half or more.
June 7, 200718 yr The core problem with the Banks overall is the general lack of economic dynamism in the region. Is the region in decline? No. Is it growing? Not particularly. Plus the real estate is all out of whack all across the US, which makes risk much higher at the moment. While it is unlikely to happen, but I'd tend to look for a non-retail, non-tourist economic engine to go there. Not sure what that would be though. That is why we elect people to hire people to figure it out.
June 7, 200718 yr Not Quite Twilight For Banks, Officials Say POSTED: 7:52 pm EDT June 6, 2007 UPDATED: 7:59 pm EDT June 6, 2007 Email This Story | Print This Story Sign Up for Breaking News Alerts CINCINNATI -- It’s back to the drawing board for the Banks. Planners said the $600 million development could still move forward after the company that was supposed to pay for it backed out, but the repeated delays have created a lot of skeptics. “It’s pretty much a joke,” said one downtowner. AIG Global Real Estate announced Tuesday that it was pulling out of the long-planned riverfront development, and a county official said they bowed out in large part because of unachievable demands by minority interests. Minority groups, like the NAACP, have criticized the Banks project for a lack of African-American participation, and some members of the organization called for contracts and jobs for minorities. Full story text is available at http://www.wlwt.com/news/13456965/detail.html
June 7, 200718 yr The County Commission’s president said he was lukewarm toward AIG from the beginning. “They were going to be making decisions in some boardroom far removed from here, based just on crunching numbers,” Portune said. I have felt the same way from the beginning...I have wanted more local participation on the business end of things in this process. AIG has ZERO vested interest in the community. They have a vested interest in Carter...which has an interest in Cincinnati, but there is no direct interest for AIG. I say keep it local, with someone who truly wants the best product...which may or may not be the most profitable. I personally am glad that AIG is gone...get someone involved who is willing to sit down and work with the community.
June 7, 200718 yr ^ I share your views on this. But the whole "there are no minority represented businesses" is just a bunch of bullshit that's happening all around the nation. I think I've made my viewpoint on that clear many times, but it just sickens me that some prancy group can come in, make unreasonable demands, and actually achieve them.
June 7, 200718 yr Minority co-developer at Banks? BY JON NEWBERRY AND JANE PRENDERGAST | [email protected], [email protected] E-mail | Print | digg us! | del.icio.us! Carter Real Estate is in late-stage talks with a minority-owned, potential co-developer to join The Banks project, and it is close to announcing a deal, a top official at the Atlanta-based company said Wednesday. Full story text is available at http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070607/NEWS01/706070331
June 12, 200718 yr Banks to get minority partner BY JESSICA BROWN | CINCINNATI ENQUIRER June 11, 2007 DOWNTOWN - The minority-owned Harold A. Dawson Co. Inc. out of Atlanta has been selected as a development partner for the Banks riverfront project. The partnership with Dawson will be announced later this week, sources told the Enquirer. Plans for the long-awaited development suffered a blow last week when AIG Global Real Estate Investment Corp. pulled out after a year of negotiations. It left Atlanta-based Carter Real Estate, which has been spearheading the project, searching for a new financial and development partner for the billion-dollar mixed use development. Full story text is available at http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070611/NEWS01/306110037
June 12, 200718 yr It hasn't been discussed but who owned the renderings? Are they the owned by 3CDC, AIG or Carter? We we see new renderings with a new developer?
June 13, 200718 yr The developer is the same...so the plans won't change. It is the financier that has changed with the project.
June 14, 200718 yr Deal on Banks unlikely today Switch in financial partners seen as a setback BY JON NEWBERRY | [email protected] The agenda for this morning's meeting of the Banks Working Group was still in flux late Wednesday, but the recommendation of a final development plan for the oft-delayed downtown riverfront development appeared unlikely. Full story text is available at http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070614/BIZ01/706140314
June 14, 200718 yr So wait, it is more important to have a minority partner from Atlanta instead of a local partner that includes minorities? I will never undertstand some of these people.
June 14, 200718 yr The County Commission’s president said he was lukewarm toward AIG from the beginning. “They were going to be making decisions in some boardroom far removed from here, based just on crunching numbers,” Portune said. I have felt the same way from the beginning...I have wanted more local participation on the business end of things in this process. AIG has ZERO vested interest in the community. They have a vested interest in Carter...which has an interest in Cincinnati, but there is no direct interest for AIG. I say keep it local, with someone who truly wants the best product...which may or may not be the most profitable. I personally am glad that AIG is gone...get someone involved who is willing to sit down and work with the community. I still believe they will find a new financial partner, but being glad that a big project like this lost it financial partner because they were not from Cincy seems a little strange. Even when they get a new financial partner it may very well be from out of town, just like the minority partner is from Atlanta. The lose of the financial partner just makes the project more delayed. I personally don't care where the money comes from (Russia, China, California, or Cincy), I just want it to come.
June 14, 200718 yr So wait, it is more important to have a minority partner from Atlanta instead of a local partner that includes minorities? I will never undertstand some of these people. Maybe they were unable to find a local minority partner that had the money and/or ability to support such a large project.
June 14, 200718 yr So wait, it is more important to have a minority partner from Atlanta instead of a local partner that includes minorities? I will never undertstand some of these people. Maybe they were unable to find a local minority partner that had the money and/or ability to support such a large project. Which is exactly why the "minority inclusion" shit is b.s. Get a company that can get the project done with the best quality for the lowest price. I would, however, be all for giving LOCAL companies preference, but only within reason.
June 14, 200718 yr Banks project 'agreement' The Banks Working Group said this morning it has an "agreement in principle" under which Carter Real Estate and Harold A. Dawson Company will serve as master developers for the Banks, a $1 billion riverfront project. The seven-member Banks Working Group has voted unanimously to recommend Carter and Dawson as the master developer for the Banks project. The formal legal documents are expected to be forwarded to the city and the county for their approval within 60 days. "We are in the final stretch," said Bob Castellini, head of the Banks Working Group, the city-county panel charged with overseeing the banks project. "If sucessful this will set in motion Ohio's most complicated economic development project ever," he said. The non-binding agreement calls for 300 apartments in the first phase, followed by 100 condominiums and 70,000 square feet of retail. It will also include an unspecified amount of office space. The agreement also sets a policy on economic inclusion and workforce development that will allow for the inclusion of minority and female-owned businesses. Banks Working Group members said they have come up with a viable financing plan for the project and that the inclusion portion of the development deal is "the most aggressive policy that the county has ever seen," said Steve Love, a new minority member of the Banks Working Group. The developers and the city/county will have a 50-50 partnership in the public/private development. County Commissioner Todd Portune praised the work of the team. "The commencement of the Banks redevelopment project has begun," he said. "And we should all be thankful for that." http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070614/NEWS01/306140025 While no agreement has been finalized, it looks like they are getting close. Glad to see them move away from condos and focus more on apartments. I think this will help in the financing of the project and getting individuals into residential units. I think this shows just how over built the condo market is becoming downtown. My only question is, are the apartments going to be phase one then they will start construction on the condos, retail and office space?
June 14, 200718 yr Banks project is 'a done deal' Work could begin this year By Joe Wessels Post contributor A deal has been reached in principle to build the Banks. Applause and words of congratulations broke out in the offices of the Cincinnati Reds Wednesday evening as brokers on a deal to build the first phase of a long-stalled $600 million, 15-acre riverfront office, entertainment, retail and residential development reached consensus after months of negotiations, said Hamilton County Commission President Todd Portune. The talks were between Carter Real Estate of Atlanta and the Banks Working Group, a panel of city and county appointees formed to help reach an agreement to build the project first proposed 10 years ago. Full story text is available at http://news.cincypost.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070614/NEWS01/706140362
June 14, 200718 yr So wait, it is more important to have a minority partner from Atlanta instead of a local partner that includes minorities? I will never undertstand some of these people. My thoughts exactly...I just want the money to stay in the hands of local businesses.
June 14, 200718 yr wait... wait.. Banks groundbreaking pushed back to 2008 Cincinnati Business Courier - 1:28 PM EDT Thursday, June 14, 2007by Dan MonkSenior Staff Reporter The city-county advisory panel overseeing the Banks riverfront development announced an "agreement in principle" on a master development contract with two Atlanta firms, with the goal of finalizing the deal within within 60 days. The additional negotiating time will push back the project's groundbreaking to early next year. Full story text is available at http://cincinnati.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/stories/2007/06/11/daily47.html?from_rss=1
June 14, 200718 yr that is the first of many coming delays on groundbreaking... i'm almost positive. I predict it will break ground late-summer 08 to mid-fall 08
June 14, 200718 yr what do you think will happen first? 1. first streetcar takes on passengers 2. first person moves into the banks 3. Cincinnati completely self destructs and neither happens
June 14, 200718 yr well..... this is a tough decision. I can't decide. We know that the streetcar should be done be 09 or 10. With the banks starting in 08, it may not be ready for move-in until 10 or 11. I'm going with the streetcar.
June 14, 200718 yr 1. first streetcar takes on passengers 2. first person moves into the banks 3. Cincinnati completely self destructs and neither happens 1. Done. Oh wait, it's not really a streetcar, but a bus that runs one-day-a-week. 2. I can move into the Banks, by squatting on the ground. Set up a homeless camp! 3. See OTR, 1960.
June 14, 200718 yr Streetcar first. On the plans, I'm actually glad to see apartments. We've wasted a lot of pixels debating how to get less wealthy YP's to live downtown. Apartments are the way to do it. You can keep it younger that way too. Each generation of new Proctoids or a fresh law school grads would settle for a couple years in the Banks. Party a bit, spend some money and look pretty for the tourists and visitors at the sporting events. Everyone will want their rich, successful friend to get an apartment there so they can pre-game the Reds or Bengals or the Labor Day Fireworks.
June 14, 200718 yr I thought the streetcar report said 5 years (2012). I hope phase one of the banks is done before that (2010 or 2011). Lets see how quickly they can get a financial backer in place. Now if we are talking about a finished Banks projects or the first streetcar system, I vote for streetcar, Banks won't be finished probably until 2015 to 2018. I wonder if we will have light rail in the Cincy area before then?
June 14, 200718 yr well the good news is the riverfront park is supposed to start construction soon(?) so progress will seem yo start sooner than that(?) ...I am just trying to be positive
June 14, 200718 yr well the good news is the riverfront park is supposed to start construction soon(?) so progress will seem yo start sooner than that(?) ...I am just trying to be positive No, that is true...they have the money in place now to move forward with the first phase of the Riverfront Park. They have stated that they will move forward with or without The Banks moving forward. Their plan is flexible enough that they can accomodate construction with The Banks as they are progressing. It would just be an added bonus. Yes this is being positive, but it is also true. People continue to say how long The Banks is taking to "get started"...but can we please remember that PBS, GABP, Freedom Center, Riverfront Transit Center are all DONE! With the Riverfront Park starting at the end of this calender year. There has been billions put into The Banks already, but people choose to tell/listen to the story they want.
June 14, 200718 yr I'm a little confused. Joe Wessels article made it sound like there was a very good chance construction would start this year, but the Business Courier article made it sound as if the project has been delayed. So, what's the real story? Is this just a case of one reporter being overly positive/negative?
June 14, 200718 yr The Business Courier is usually spot on with numbers, but the claim for this being pushed back until next year seemed a bit odd. Even the anti-city Enquirer hasn't made that claim...yet. They have stated, from the beginning, that construction could begin this year (most likely) with a potential of starting in early '08. Either way it's not a major time difference, but it does look bad to the general public if it's pushed back at all.
June 15, 200718 yr This is Randy. http://www.petrifiedtruth.com/archives/Howard%20Dean-thumb.jpg YEAH! THE BANKS IS BEING BUILT! YEAH! (chomps head of dissenter off)
June 15, 200718 yr Banks developers selected BY JESSICA BROWN & JON NEWBERRY | CINCINNATI ENQUIRER June 15, 2007 DOWNTOWN - After more than 10 years of delays, a development agreement has finally been reached for the long-awaited Banks riverfront development - but that doesn't ensure that the project will be built. There are still many unanswered questions and a lot of work to be done before the 50 acres of dirt along the river is transformed into a planned bustling neighborhood and entertainment district. The "non-binding" development deal - a 15-page "Outline of Terms for Banks Project" signed by the developers - was announced Thursday during a meeting of the Banks Working Group. That panel is charged with recommending a development plan to the city of Cincinnati and Hamilton County. Full story text is available at http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070615/NEWS01/706150405/1077/COL02 Q&A: Some facts about The Banks June 15, 2007 | CINCINNATI ENQUIRER So what does all this mean to you? Here are the answers to some important questions: Question: Will there be a movie theater? What types of stores and entertainment can we expect to see? Answer: That hasn't been decided. The developers are just beginning to market commercial space and seek tenants. Q: When will it be built? Full story text is available at http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070615/NEWS01/706150406/1077/COL02
June 15, 200718 yr Developer: Banks will be unique By Joe Wessels Post contributor FIRST PHASE The initial phase of the project - will include a $20 million parking garage to raise the entire project out of the flood plain, plus another $20 million in public improvements. The first phase is also expected to have 300 apartments, 100 condominiums and 70,000 square feet of retail space. Full story text is available at http://news.cincypost.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070615/NEWS01/706150364
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