Lake Erie is getting warmer and smaller

The lake is in far better shape than it was 20 years ago, but scientists worry it might not stay that way as it deals with new environmental threats

Thursday, July 26, 2007

Michael Scott

Plain Dealer Reporter

 

Lake Erie is hot.

 

OK, just slowly warming -- and drawing increasingly heated interest among beaker-bearing scientists, criss-crossing our lake this summer looking for answers to questions about temperature and related matters.

 

Among them: Will Lake Erie continue its 30-year drop in depth and area? Will damaging invasive aquatic species like zebra mussels keep gaining in strength and numbers? Will the harmful algae blooms and no-oxygen "dead zones" keep growing each year?

 

http://www.cleveland.com/news/plaindealer/index.ssf?/base/news/1185439594128710.xml&coll=2

 

© 2007 The Plain Dealer

 

A couple years ago while other parts of the nation were having droughts, I recall the head of the Cleveland Water Department telling people we really don't have a shortage here and conservation of water wasn't really necessary.

 

This may sound like "marketing in action", but keep in mind that the electric and gas companies are always talking about conservation.  Of course, unlike electricity and gas water eventually ends up back where it came from.

Maybe we'll get less snow if it disappears.  Course, the warmer the lake water, the more snow we get.

Interesting you should say that, gotribe. Here's Cleveland's top-ten snowiest winters since record-keeping began in 1872. Note that all but one of the snowiest winters have happened in the past 30 years. Also, Cleveland average seasonal snowfall (64 inches) is based on a 30-year moving average, with the average rising nearly 9 inches in just the past 10 years)...

 

1.  117.9  2004-05

2.  101.1  1995-96

3.  100.5  1981-82

4.  95.7  2002-03

5.  91.2  2003-04

6.  90.1  1977-78

7.  88.5  1992-93

8.  80.9  1909-10

9.  79.4  1983-84

10.  78.1  2000-01

 

 

Here's Cleveland's seasonal snowfall over the past 40 seasons:

 

    2006-2007 76.5

    2005-2006      50.6

    2004-2005 117.9

    2003-2004      91.2

    2002-2003      95.7

    2001-2002 46.0

    2000-2001 78.1

    1999-2000 60.1

    1998-1999 62.4

    1997-1998 34.0

    1996-1997 55.9

    1995-1996 101.1

    1994-1995 43.6

    1993-1994 72.5

    1992-1993 88.5

    1991-1992 65.7

    1990-1991 47.1

    1989-1990 62.6

    1988-1989 54.8

    1987-1988 71.3

    1986-1987 55.8

    1985-1986 58.3

    1984-1985 63.7

    1983-1984 79.4

    1982-1983 38.0

    1981-1982 100.5

    1980-1981 60.5

    1979-1980 38.7

    1978-1979 38.3

    1977-1978 90.1

    1976-1977 63.4

    1975-1976 54.4

    1974-1975 67.0

    1973-1974 58.5

    1972-1973 68.5

    1971-1972 45.6

    1970-1971 51.4

    1969-1970 53.4

    1968-1969 37.0

 

 

* Data recorded at Hopkins Airport

The 117.9 two years ago came due to the lake opening up in Feb, waters warming up, and a cold air mass moving over it on April 22, 23, and 24.  Hopkins recorded 17" of snow through those dates.

I believe we had broken the seasonal snowfall record before that freak April snowfall. I do recall the tree in front of our office building collapsed under the weight of the snow. But I I agree that the warmer lake has caused heavier snows in spring and fall. And the warming climate has caused heavier snows in the middle of winter, since warmer air can hold more moisture than cold air.

IIRC, an article was posted in Buffalo's newspaper about their ever-increasing snowfalls due to warmer lake conditions.

Tracking Erie's deadly algae

NASA's new scanner helps keep an eye on a growing problem

Tuesday,  September 25, 2007 3:38 AM

By Spencer Hunt

 

10,500 FEET ABOVE LAKE ERIE -- For miles, the calm waters resemble a sheet of gray glass.

 

Then, just south of Pelee Island in Ontario, you see it -- a dense blue-green shock.

 

It's microcystis, an algae that can sicken people, kill fish and threaten the lake's $1 billion annual tourism and sport-fishing industry.

 

Algae blooms such as this have attracted the attention of scientists trying to understand the phenomenon.

 

Small amounts of microcystis can be found in most lakes, rivers and streams; in summer months it can grow into vast mats that clog Sandusky Bay, Maumee Bay and the lake's shallow western basin.

 

Every year, algae announce the formation of an oxygen-starved area near Lake Erie's bottom called the "dead zone" because not much can survive there.

 

Researchers are looking for a connection between the complex formation of the dead zone and the explosion in growth of microcystis and other algae during the hot, sunny days of early summer.

 

When algae decompose, they fall to the bottom of the lake, where they choke up nearly all the available oxygen.

 

The situation is a concern in deeper waters to the east, where scientists say it threatens fish and other animals as well as the health of the lake.

 

The zone begins to form in the west, off Sandusky Bay, in late June and early July in cold water near the lake bottom.

 

By September, the dead zone expands east to cover most of the lake's central basin, an area of deep water from the Lake Erie Islands to Erie, Pa.

 

This month, NASA research engineer John Lekki sat in the back of a gutted Lear jet, cradling a laptop computer and staring at data that streamed from an experimental scanner bolted to the bottom of the plane.

 

It had no trouble detecting the algae near Pelee, about 17 miles north of Sandusky.

 

The device, called a hyperspectral imager, looks for the algae's specific blue-green hue. The imager splits light reflected from the algae across hundreds of wavelengths in the visible and infrared spectrum. It scans for specific peaks of color that distinguish microcystis from other types of algae and plant chlorophyll.

 

The technology could be a valuable early-warning system, said George Leshkevich, a researcher with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

 

"You can try to give a heads-up to water-treatment plant managers and to beaches for beach closings," he said.

 

This algae is no stranger to Erie, but its recent ability to grow into vast, dense mats in the lake's western basin has scientists concerned.

 

The problem begins with millions of invasive zebra and quagga mussels that have clogged the lake in recent years.

 

They eat harmless algae but spit out the toxins.

 

"You end up with microcystis because there isn't anything else," said Jeff Reutter, director of the Ohio Sea Grant program at Ohio State University.

 

The re-emergence of the dead zone comes 20 years after a huge, expensive effort to reduce pollution in the lake. A lot of attention was devoted to reducing phosphorus, a vital plant nutrient that washes off farmland and into streams and rivers that reach the lake.

 

Phosphorus fueled explosive increases in algae in the middle of the last century.

 

By the early 1990s, reducing phosphorus, especially in sewage discharges, was credited with all but eliminating the dead zone.

 

Then, a decade ago, Canadian scientists noted that the zone was coming back about the same time that high phosphorus levels were being recorded in the Maumee, Sandusky and other rivers that empty into the lake.

 

Some researchers think the increase could be linked to a huge increase in soybean farming. Scientists, including some at Ohio State, use satellites to track algae blooms, but that technology does not provide as detailed a picture of the problem.

 

The NASA flights test how accurate the imager is and how it works in different weather conditions.

 

As the plane flew over the lake's western basin recently, a research vessel plied the waters below. Scientists on the boat drew water samples that will be used to measure concentrations of algae.

 

NASA has flown over the lake nine times this summer to gather data. A recent flight could be the most crucial, Lekki said, because samples were taken within hours of the plane's scanning runs.

 

NASA has spent about $240,000 in time, fuel and materials to build and test the imager, said Sallie Keith, an agency spokeswoman.

 

If the technology proves a success, Lekki said, similar imagers could be installed in space probes and rovers to examine such things as interstellar dust and Mars rocks.

 

[email protected]

 

Dangerous blooms

What is microcystis?

• It is a type of algae that occurs naturally in small concentrations in most lakes. It forms small colonies that look like floating blue-green pollen or sand grains. High concentrations can appear as dense blankets or surface foam.

 

Why are we seeing more?

• Zebra and quagga mussels eat algae and spit out natural toxins. With competing algae reduced, microcystis grows in greater numbers. Warm water conditions, the lake's levels of phosphorus and other plant nutrients also contribute.

 

Why is it harmful?

• Microcystis can produce microcystins, which can sicken people and even kill wildlife and pets if enough is ingested. It might also cause liver damage in animals if smaller amounts are eaten over a long period of time. It is also tied to oxygen-starved "dead zones" in Lake Erie.

 

Sources: Michigan State University, Ohio Sea Grant

 

http://dispatch.com/live/content/science/stories/2007/09/25/sci_Eriealgae.ART_ART_09-25-07_B4_7H7UMMK.html?print=yes&sid=101

http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080107/NEWS06/801070402/-1/NEWS

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Article published January 7, 2008

 

Lake Erie's water level could plunge 3 to 6 feet as Earth's temperature rises

 

By TOM HENRY

BLADE STAFF WRITER

 

While there’s no quick fix for curbing the greenhouse gases that scientists blame for the Earth’s warming climate, the issue is getting more attention in the Great Lakes region, and western Lake Erie in particular.

 

In a three-year study of the Detroit River-western Lake Erie corridor released earlier this month, 75 scientists from nearly 50 government, business, academic, and public-interest groups claimed Lake Erie could drop 3.28 feet to 6.56 feet of water by 2066.

 

The lake’s western basin is the region’s shallowest.

 

Even by taking the midpoint of that prediction, a 4.92-foot drop would result “in a 4 percent reduction in surface area of the western basin and a 20 percent reduction in volume of the western basin,” according to the 315-page report, “State of the Strait: Status and Trends of Key Indicators 2007”.

 

As the lake shrinks, western Lake Erie’s shoreline could expand by more than 19,685 feet, or nearly 4 miles, potentially wreaking havoc upon the shipping industry and facilities communities need for treating water.

 

But that’s not all. More people likely will die or become sickened by insect-borne diseases such as West Nile virus.

 

Birders may have a harder time finding certain songbirds coming through the area, although therealready is an abundance of turkey vultures that “may be due to global warming,” the report said.

 

The report isn’t a typical doomsday scenario prepared by reactionary groups.

 

Its seven editors include two members of both the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the University of Windsor, plus one each from Environment Canada, the International Joint Commission, and the Southwest Michigan Land Conservancy.

 

Funding sources included several of the above agencies, the Canadian Consulate, Detroit’s water and sewerage department, DTE Energy, Michigan Sea Grant, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and other business, academic, and government organizations.

 

The report synthesizes much of the progress made in cleaning up decades of pollution in the Detroit River and western Lake Erie while providing an ominous look at failures such as invasive species and wetlands destroyed by waterfront development.

 

Runoff into the Maumee River and other streams continues to be problematic.

 

Controlling it “must be approached in a holistic and comprehensive manner,” the report said.

 

Like many studies of the Great Lakes lately, there’s a hodgepodge of good and bad. It offers conflicting signals over what the Detroit River-western Lake Erie corridor has accomplished and where it is heading.

 

But that’s just one of its central points. It said that while millions have been spent to study the Detroit River and western Lake Erie, little is being done to synthesize research in the United States and Canada. It calls for such collaborative work to be done at least once every five years.

 

John Hartig, the U.S. co-chairman of the report and a federal Fish & Wildlife Service official who manages the U.S. side of the Detroit River International Wildlife Refuge, said public meetings are planned in the Monroe and Detroit areas to discuss the report.

 

Its section on global warming includes information provided by the 2007 report of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a landmark report in which hundreds of scientists worldwide agreed that human activity is accentuating whatever natural changes that are occurring to the Earth’s climate.

 

“There is new and strong evidence that most of the warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities,” the report said, citing carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and other greenhouse gas emissions linked to global warming.

 

“The heat-trapping property of these gases is undisputed, although uncertainties exist about exactly how Earth’s climate responds to them,” it said.

 

The report offers few specifics on how cuts in regional greenhouse gases should be achieved and says nothing about what needs to be done, although it provides advice for conserving power through such means as compact fluorescent light bulbs and energy-saving appliances.

 

Scientists say the largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions are coal-fired power plants, automobiles, and industrial plants.

 

The report notes that ice cover on Lake Erie has been declining since the late 1970s.

 

Scientists have said the lake evaporates more in the late fall and early winter than it does in the summer because the difference between air and water temperatures is greater.

 

Freezing seals off the evaporation until the spring thaw. But during winters when Lake Erie doesn’t freeze, the lake is under enormous stress.

 

“Even though there is considerable uncertainty as to the effects of global warming on Lake Erie water levels over the next several decades, projections are that there will be a decline,” the report said.

 

A new report by the National Environmental Trust in Washington ranked Ohio fifth and Michigan 10th in greenhouse gas emissions.

 

Ohio’s output of 255 million metric tons of emissions exceeds that of The Netherlands, or 98 developing countries, according to that group’s report.

 

Michigan’s output of 182 million metric tons exceeds that of Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, and Croatia combined — or 91 developing countries, the report said.

 

In November, Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm formed the 35-member Michigan Climate Action Council to provide recommendations for creating jobs through research and development aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

 

The council’s interim report to the governor is due April 30. Its final report is to be submitted by Dec. 31.

 

Contact Tom Henry at:[email protected] 419-724-6079.

My wife's grandfather dorve cars across Lake Erie from Sandusky to the islands back when the lake would freeze over each winter.  They used to have major ice boat races in the Sandusky area each winter (sail boats on ice skates) back in the 1940s and 50s.

 

All of that has been gone for some time now, with ice fishing declining significantly as well.  The Lake just doesn't freeze like it did pre 1970.

 

one time the lake froze over in the late 70's and we walked way the hail out there until i couldnt see any land in any direction anymore. i'll never forget that arctic view. luckily we could follow our footprints back. stupid kid thing to do.

This may save millions of dollars by limiting the need for ugly and counterproductive erosion control measures.

 

"But that’s not all. More people likely will die or become sickened by insect-borne diseases such as West Nile virus."

 

Um, why, because there will be more wetlands? Nothing like trying to scare people into a knee jerk reaction!

I say we just dam up Niagara Falls.

Snowy winter expected to replenish Great Lakes

Sunday, March 09, 2008

Associated Press

 

Detroit - Water levels are expected to rise in parts of the Great Lakes this summer after one of the snowiest winters in years, a much-needed boost for boaters and lakeside businesses.

 

"We didn't expect this dramatic turnaround," said Scott Thieme, chief hydrologist of the Detroit office of the Army Corps of Engineers. "It's a much better picture than it was six months ago. . . . We're just amazed at the weather we've had."

 

Last fall, projections were dire. Lake Superior hit record lows in August and September, and Lakes Michigan and Huron were near all-time lows. The corps expected spring to bring new record lows.

 

Meteorologists across the Great Lakes said this season's heavy storms have pulled in moisture from as far away as the Gulf of Mexico.

 

This snow is heavy, dense and full of water, compared with the usual lake-effect storms that suck moisture off the Great Lakes and drop it back as fluffy, dry snow, merely recycling the water from lake to land, back to lake.

 

The imported moisture also bodes well for thirsty streams, rivers and inland lakes, some of which also had reached extremely low levels.

 

"We've had copious snow and rain across the Great Lakes into Wisconsin, Iowa and Illinois, so I would think they'll be on the high side of the projections," said Bill Deedler, meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in White Lake Township.

 

Those projections generally suggest levels in the upper Great Lakes this summer will be 6 to 12 inches higher than they were last summer. Grand Rapids, Flint and Saginaw in Michigan had their snowiest Februarys ever, and tiny Wellston, Mich., near Manistee, already set a record for the winter season.

 

While boaters and lakefront property owners will mostly take notice when warm weather arrives, the snow also has been sweet for snowmobilers and skiers who have suffered through recent winters. The snow is mostly due to a La Nina weather pattern that draws on cooler Pacific Ocean waters, meteorologists said.

 

Deedler said inland lakes were low last summer, especially before heavy rains in August. "They dried out, but I think we'll start this spring on a good note," he said. "If we're lucky, it will hold into summer."

 

Although the Great Lakes are expected to rebound higher through August, the corps said the upper lakes - Superior, Michigan and Huron - will be below their long-term averages.

 

In December, Lakes Michigan and Huron, joined by the Straits of Mackinac, were just inches above a record low. The two lakes will still be 18-24 inches below longtime averages this summer, but 6 to 12 inches above record lows.

 

"There aren't any more scary records looming," Thieme said.

 

Lake Superior is expected to be 8 to 12 inches below its average. Levels for Lake Ontario should be at or above average for the next six months. Lake Erie should be near or above normal.

 

All the lakes but Superior rose in February, a time when they normally fall. Evaporation remains an issue, as lake temperatures heading into winter were higher than normal, leading to low ice cover.

 

http://www.cleveland.com/news/plaindealer/index.ssf?/base/cuyahoga/1205063704165990.xml&coll=2

Report: Climate change could cost Ohio's economy more than $1 billion

http://cincinnati.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/stories/2008/07/21/daily37.html

The lake levels have been rising and falling for 10,000 years....the waters edge used to be ten miles south. 

 

I wouldn't jump to any immediate conclusions over this report. This is not the biggest enviromental problem facing the lakes.

 

Anyhow, a shrinking Lake Erie means less erosion, and opens up more possibilities for beach restoration.

 

Report: Climate change could cost Ohio's economy more than $1 billion

http://cincinnati.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/stories/2008/07/21/daily37.html

The lake levels have been rising and falling for 10,000 years....the waters edge used to be ten miles south.

 

Yes...this is all pretty ridiculous.  10 years ago, ports in the Western Basin were having to dredge channels because the water levels were so low.  This summer, water levels have been high allowing boats to go over reefs that used to result in a ripped up prop.  Water levels fluctuate greatly year to year.