Trump calls Brent Spence #2 national priority:

 

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2017/01/24/brent-spence-no-2-trumps-priority-list/97012578/

Can't wait for the details to come forward. It will most likely require a public-private partnership in order to get built. Then all of the Northern Kentucky politicians who vowed to never support tolls on the new bridge will have to reconsider their positions.

Which is why bridges should be routinely inspected and well maintained.

 

If I recall correctly, ODOT inspects all fracture critical bridges on a yearly instead of a biannual basis as is required. No one should really be worried about the state of the BSB as we would be made well aware if it was ever classified as structurally deficient.

Steve Chabot is currently serving his eleventh term representing Southwest Ohio in the U.S. Congress. That's a total of 22 years of service, all consecutive except for a single term (2008-09). If a new Brent Spence Bridge was truly a national priority, Mr. Chabot would have made an effort to pass a bill that grabs federal funding for the new bridge.

 

Chabot has made his career literally by not doing anything for his voters, and they like him for it. I have never understood this.

It looks like tolling I-65 in Louisville caused traffic to drop by almost 50% from 122,000 to 64,000

 

They also went from seven lanes (4 north/3 south) to twelve lanes (6/6)

 

https://riverlink.com/downloads/2017-02-01%20RiverLink%20Month%20One%20Update.pdf

 

http://updates.kyinbridges.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Traffic-Revenue-Study-8-30-13.pdf

Ahahaha

WCPO had a new story today reiterating that the bridge is not in danger of falling into the river, and that it is only "functionally obsolete", meaning it carries more traffic than it was designed to carry.

In the same way that paying $5 to park is incidental to the overall cost of vehicle ownership, these small tolls cause people to irrationally avoid discretionary travel.

 

I think people think throwing 50 cents in a basket or giving a tollbooth operator $2 is fair.  They don't like having a robot send them a bill in the mail. 

Ohio and KY should agree to experiment on the Brent Spence and just add a toll to the current setup. Make it free off-peak, $2 at rush hour, and 50 cents during the day between rush hour. I imagine the traffic results would be similar to Louisville - Cincinnatians are cheap, and half of them would just find another route instead of spending the money, thus solving the problem of it being over-capacity. The money could be used for perpetual maintenance of the bridge, and to re-stripe it for 3 travel lanes, with a shoulder. The "government should be run like a business" people should be squarely behind this idea - the Brent Spence might even be able to run in the green.

The "Government should be run like a business" people think roads are free since they understand neither.

I don't believe that it's legal for states to toll existing sections of interstate highways, so they can't do an experiment on the existing bridge.  There has to be a substantial modification to the road, including an increase in its capacity, for tolls to be introduced. 

 

 

^ Exactly. Tolls are only permitted on interstates when new improvements are made. Seattle did something similar with tolling an existing state highway. But we can't do it for the BSB. If you could, I would suggest we put the Port Authority in charge of all the interstate bridge crossings and let them manage the tolling. Then they could finally have an income stream to do the things they want to do.

I just found this page on the USDOT's website with the following quote:

 

In the 1939 report to Congress, Toll Roads and Free Roads, the U.S. Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) rejected the toll option for financing Interstate construction because most Interstate corridors would not generate enough toll revenue to retire the bonds that would be issued to finance them. In part, the report attributed this conclusion to "the traffic-repelling tendency of the proposed toll-road system." Although some corridors had enough traffic to support bond financing, the report predicted that motorists would stay on the parallel toll-free roads to a large extent.

 

So even in 1939, we predicted that if we tolled roads, there wouldn't be enough traffic to generate enough revenue to pay for those roads!

Well it certainly worked in the case of the state turnpikes.  The Pennsylvania + Ohio + Indiana + Chicago Skyway form one continuous 600~ mile toll road that is profitable because it has no parallel competition.  But the West Virginia Turnpike did default on its bonds despite having no north/south competition for 100+ miles in either direction.

 

The problem in Louisville, like here, is that there are too many free parallel bridges.  There were tolls on all of the Cincinnati bridges until the Brent Spence opened.  So there were tolls on the C&O, Suspension, Central, and L&N up until 1963.  They knew that if those tolls were kept, *all* traffic would make its way over to the new Brent Spence.  If a new Brent Spence were tolled, Kentucky could re-toll the Clay Wade, Suspension, and Taylor-Southgate bridges.  But that would shift all traffic to the Big Mac.  There was chatter 15 years ago about widening the Big Mac, but if all of the bridges were tolled it would absolutely kill NKY's hotel business.  It would, however, start incentivizing people to use 275 as a bypass. 

I actually found that page via this New York Times article, which tells the story of Breezewood, PA. There previously was a law preventing interstates from connecting directly to toll roads. Since I-70 could not connect directly to the Pennsylvania Turnpike, everyone had to get off the interstate, drive for one block through Breezewood, and then get on the Turnpike. Of course, now that Breezewood is full of gas stations, souvenir shops, and motels, those businesses have fought against any effort to build a direct connection between I-70 and the Turnpike, even though it is now legal.

^Fascinating. I've always wondered about Breezewood.

^Fascinating. I've always wondered about Breezewood.

 

Living in DC, I make sure to avoid Breezewood with every drive back to Cincinnati. It's cheaper and almost as quick to take I-68 and I-79 to I-70 in Washington, PA. I feel the only value in Maryland / DC citizens using 70 to Breezewood would be for those who wish to continue on 76 to Ohio. Otherwise, I-68 and I-79 it for cheaper!

Breezewood is the best place for a busload of Ohio 8th graders on their D.C. trip to stop and poo

Breezewood is the best place for a busload of Ohio 8th graders on their D.C. trip to stop and poo

 

In 9th grade we stopped there on our return trip.  A forgettable stop if not for the truck stop's Playboy pinball machine. 

 

I don't believe that it's legal for states to toll existing sections of interstate highways, so they can't do an experiment on the existing bridge.  There has to be a substantial modification to the road, including an increase in its capacity, for tolls to be introduced.

^ Exactly. Tolls are only permitted on interstates when new improvements are made. Seattle did something similar with tolling an existing state highway. But we can't do it for the BSB. If you could, I would suggest we put the Port Authority in charge of all the interstate bridge crossings and let them manage the tolling. Then they could finally have an income stream to do the things they want to do.

 

You two are forgetting we live in the Era of #MAGA. This could be something DT could push through and the House/Senate would be cool with it because it isn't a Democrat doing it (and the Secretary of Transportation is the Senate Majority Leader's wife).

Brent Spence accident rates, traffic counts climb as bridge in national spotlight

James Pilcher , [email protected] 10:19 p.m. ET Feb. 14, 2017

 

 

Think accidents and traffic are getting even worse on the Brent Spence Bridge?

 

You're right.

 

Data obtained by The Enquirer shows that the number of vehicles on the 53-year-old span is reaching record numbers as of late. And, on average, you can count on two crashes or more per week.

 

http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/your-watchdog/2017/02/14/brent-spence-accident-rates-traffic-counts-climb-bridge-national-spotlight/97643112/

^biggest takeaway? traffic is still lower than in 2005.

The photos of the decaying concrete remind me so much of the photos of the decaying concrete under Riverfront Stadium.  The exact same tactic keeps working. 

There are accidents all the time on Columbia Parkway. Where's the public outcry against a pre-interstate viaduct with no emergency lanes and poor sightlines??

 

As far as the BSB, I feel like a lot of the accident issues could be solved if the lower deck didn't have half a dozen flashlights illuminating it. Northbound 71/75 is constantly dark.

We should re-stripe it back to its original three lane configuration, restoring the emergency shoulders.

The Big-Mac bridge carrying I-471 doesn't have any emergency shoulders either and there is a fender bender in the right lane heading south where the exit to Newport stacks up, and another accident in the right lane heading north where the exit to I-75, Columbia Parkway and 3rd Street downtown all share one lane at least once a week. Why is it only the Brent Spence that gets called out?

 

Stripe three lanes ALL dedicated to I-75 (which would be a gain over the two lanes you have currently coming south) and add emergency lanes. Then route I-71 over the Big Mac and only allow one exit lane to cross between I-71 and I-75 through Ft. Washington Way. The problem isn't the bridge itself, its that two major highways get reduced to two lanes each and then cram together right at downtown, they shouldn't come together until down by Florence where there is more space and less traffic.

There are accidents all the time on Columbia Parkway. Where's the public outcry against a pre-interstate viaduct with no emergency lanes and poor sightlines??

 

Apparently, and this surprised me, Columbia Parkway has no more collisions than average for the city.  Maybe it's so rough and tumble that it forces people to pay attention and drive more carefully.  It's sort of the same argument that everyone would drive safer if instead of an airbag in their steering wheel, there was a huge metal spike aimed straight at their chest. 

The Big-Mac bridge carrying I-471 doesn't have any emergency shoulders either and there is a fender bender in the right lane heading south where the exit to Newport stacks up, and another accident in the right lane heading north where the exit to I-75, Columbia Parkway and 3rd Street downtown all share one lane at least once a week. Why is it only the Brent Spence that gets called out?

 

Stripe three lanes ALL dedicated to I-75 (which would be a gain over the two lanes you have currently coming south) and add emergency lanes. Then route I-71 over the Big Mac and only allow one exit lane to cross between I-71 and I-75 through Ft. Washington Way. The problem isn't the bridge itself, its that two major highways get reduced to two lanes each and then cram together right at downtown, they shouldn't come together until down by Florence where there is more space and less traffic.

 

If you are driving south on I-71, the signs will tell you to use I-471 to I-275 to get to the airport. Even though this is longer, these signs were installed during the FWW project to reduce the amount of traffic on FWW and the BSB. Now that everybody uses their phones for directions, I bet these signs have nearly zero influence on people's routes.

There are accidents all the time on Columbia Parkway. Where's the public outcry against a pre-interstate viaduct with no emergency lanes and poor sightlines??

 

Apparently, and this surprised me, Columbia Parkway has no more collisions than average for the city.  Maybe it's so rough and tumble that it forces people to pay attention and drive more carefully.  It's sort of the same argument that everyone would drive safer if instead of an airbag in their steering wheel, there was a huge metal spike aimed straight at their chest. 

 

This seems pretty much in line with the way that streets have fewer fatal accidents than highways, even if they may have more fender benders. People have the "street" mentality when driving on the parkway. As opposed to US-50 west of downtown which is built to interstate standards.

Just dug up this gem.

, OKI claimed that the entire Interstate highway system would be in complete chaos by the year 2017 if we didn't build the new BSB:

 

 

LOL

While parts of the system are approaching capacity, nothing is even close to catastrophic.

"Level of Service" = Level of Salesmanship

There's been another interstate bridge collapse, this time due to a fire. I-85 in Atlanta is closed.

 

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/bridge-collapses-atlanta-freeway-fire-during-rush-hour-n740871

 

 

I'm not sure how that's relevant. It collapsed because of a major fire, not because of structural concerns that were evident beforehand. Adding such intense heat to a fracture critical member (or striking it) can cause bridges to collapse, which is why most new bridges being designed today have redundancy built in to advert those issues.

There are accidents all the time on Columbia Parkway. Where's the public outcry against a pre-interstate viaduct with no emergency lanes and poor sightlines??

 

Apparently, and this surprised me, Columbia Parkway has no more collisions than average for the city.  Maybe it's so rough and tumble that it forces people to pay attention and drive more carefully.  It's sort of the same argument that everyone would drive safer if instead of an airbag in their steering wheel, there was a huge metal spike aimed straight at their chest. 

 

trucks are banned from Columbia Parkway, so that helps keep the accident rate down

444 W Third St is being prepped for demolition: http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2017/03/31/former-dunnhumbyusa-hq-in-downtown-cincinnati-to.html

 

I don't understand why the building is being demolished now, when there isn't any funding or plan in place for the Brent Spence Bridge replacement. Am I missing something? Or is this just going to sit as an empty lot for a long time until a new bridge is funded, designed, and built?

 

The building was appraised at $16.6m, and the cost of the demolition is $1.3m, so the true total cost of acquiring and demolishing the building is around $18 million. Seems like a lot of money to tear down a nicely renovated building that dates back to 1923.

 

http://wedge3.hcauditor.org/view/re/1450004012300/2015/summary

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2017/03/31/former-dunnhumbyusa-hq-in-downtown-cincinnati-to.html

444 W Third St is being prepped for demolition: http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2017/03/31/former-dunnhumbyusa-hq-in-downtown-cincinnati-to.html

 

I don't understand why the building is being demolished now, when there isn't any funding or plan in place for the Brent Spence Bridge replacement. Am I missing something? Or is this just going to sit as an empty lot for a long time until a new bridge is funded, designed, and built?

 

The building was appraised at $16.6m, and the cost of the demolition is $1.3m, so the true total cost of acquiring and demolishing the building is around $18 million. Seems like a lot of money to tear down a nicely renovated building that dates back to 1923.

 

 

http://wedge3.hcauditor.org/view/re/1450004012300/2015/summary

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2017/03/31/former-dunnhumbyusa-hq-in-downtown-cincinnati-to.html

 

Perhaps the building owner is a friend of the Mayor (or someone else in power) and wanted to unload it? Eliminating office space from the mix drive the price up for the remaining vacant buildings perhaps? Same for the Hudepohl Brewery. Without a plan to replace it, why is now the time to tear it down? The brewery was a liability in its current state, but i agree that 444 was a solid building in good shape.

 

I'm not sure how that's relevant. It collapsed because of a major fire, not because of structural concerns that were evident beforehand. Adding such intense heat to a fracture critical member (or striking it) can cause bridges to collapse, which is why most new bridges being designed today have redundancy built in to advert those issues.

 

Interstates are not immune to failure, and since they carry so much traffic, often without good alternatives, the disruption to the regional transportation system can cause a crises. In the Atlanta case, the collapse of a relatively obscure overpass caused the closure of miles of motorway. Because interstates are limited-access, you can't just drive around the block to get back on route.

 

I checked Google Maps traffic for Atlanta this morning and again this evening.  It doesn't seem to be appreciably worse than usual, but I don't have an on-the-ground view of it.  Sort of like the expected carmageddon when the 405 in LA was closed for several days, it never actually materialized. 

In the book Traffic by Tom Vanderbuilt, the author describes some of the traffic phenomenon. People are creatures of habit, and traffic patterns are somewhat predictable as long as conditions don't change. It's harder to predict what will happen when things change suddenly. He talks about a dockyard strike in the L.A. area that put hundreds of truck drivers temporarily out of work. Planners predicted that the highway would be nearly empty, but instead it filled up with thousands of new cars!

 

The conventional prediction is that if something happened to the Brent Spence Bridge, all of the traffic would seek other routes. This isn't necessarily true, as some of the traffic might just disappear.

 

This isn't necessarily true, as some of the traffic might just disappear.

 

 

 

This is what people who are cheering on driverless cars don't understand.  Whatever efficiency is gained will be offset by induced demand. 

 

Meanwhile, a driverless city bus system could be profitable with $2 fares but ridesharing in place of owning a car will cost a suburban commuter at least $20 per day.  It's not going to be much cheaper than owning a car because a huge number of cars will need to exist for peak traffic periods and they will basically sit around all day.  Where?  Parking lots. 

A bunch of empty cars running around picking up a pack of cigarettes

A bunch of empty cars running around picking up a pack of cigarettes

 

It's amazing how much the right-wingers have jumped on the driverless car bandwagon.  Talk radio knows that people only listen to talk radio in cars.  But it's unlikely that there will still be money to pay hosts after car advertising disappears. 

 

In fact the disappearance of car dealership advertising would be catastrophic to local TV news and finally kill off traditional newspapers.  No doubt car dealerships are the #1 source of advertising revenue for all local media, everywhere.  When I was an uber driver, one of my first carloads was two guys talking about some girl they knew who was a car advertising salesman for a TV affiliate that will remain nameless.  She was apparently about 27 years old and the #3 salesman for that network in the entire country.  They said she had earned $600k the previous year by maintaining frivolous sexual relationships with the sons of all all of the area car dealership owners.  And those fancy clothes she wore?  That's what she bought with the proceeds from her cocaine-selling side hustle. 

 

 

Well now there's pill commercials on the radio as well, which is new. Old Media can be propped up almost completely by pills and other medical ads, though only on a smaller scale. Basically Old Media would be all Jesus and content made to sell pills. There would be little to no content that healthy or non-religious people find compelling.

After the car dealership, herbal supplement, and reverse mortgage ads disappear, talk radio will crumble and churches will buy up their broadcast licenses.

Finally got some numbers on the Louisville I-65 Bridge project. They had about 120,000 vehicles per day going over the six lane I-65 bridge downtown (Kennedy). They've added a second six lane bridge next to the I-65 Bridge (Lincoln) and built a new bridge up river (Lewis and Clark).

 

After three months of having the tolls in place, traffic on all three bridges decreased by 27%

 

Location January February March

 

Kennedy Bridge

Weekday 32,017 33,703 36,406

Weekend 23,107 23,191 28,209

 

Lincoln Bridge

Weekday 32,589 33,552 36,466

Weekend 21,619 23,973 28,414

 

Lewis and Clark Bridge

Weekday 15,061 15,759 16,616

Weekend 9,917 10,270 10,907

 

Project Cost- $2,300,000,000.00

 

When you say traffic has decreased by 27%, is that compared to Jan-Feb-March for 2016?

When you say traffic has decreased by 27%, is that compared to Jan-Feb-March for 2016?

 

I'm going by a survey of the most recent traffic counts that are available. Pretty much all of them from 2008 on have been in the 120k range.

That would be correct. But it's helpful to know that traffic can now be routed via multiple bridges: I-64 to the west, I-65 (toll) in downtown and I-265 (toll) to the east. Local traffic to/from downtown can take US 31 via the Clark Memorial Bridge, which now has enhanced ramps to/from I-65 in Indiana (it was a little more cumbersome before I-65 was widened across the river). Whereas all traffic on the east side of Louisville had to take I-65 (when it was free) to Indiana, they can now take I-65 (toll) or I-265 (toll) - and vice versa. There isn't much in money savings if one drives all the way to the west side and take I-64 to I-265.

 

Just for comparison, the traffic studies that was done as the precursor to the Ohio River Bridges Project noted (via Steer Davies Gleave and CDM Smith):

 

I-65

YEAR | AADT

2004 | 132000

2007 | 136000

2008 | 121000

2010 | 122900

2012 | 122000

2013 | 125700 (26% trucks)

 

I-64

YEAR | AADT

2002 | 87800

2004 | 81500

2007 | 89800

2010 | 81900

2011 | 69600 (there was a major closure due to a crack in the superstructure)

2012 | 87200

2013 | 73400

 

US 31

YEAR | AADT

2002 | 19900

2006 | 19200

2009 | 14800

2010 | 21900

2012 | 24100

2013 | 25600

 

Steer Davies Gleave did not break down traffic count forecasts per bridge and lumped it into both I-65 and I-265. But from their report:

 

According to the C-J article posted yesterday:

* Combined traffic on the three tolled bridges (I-65 SB, I-65 NB, I-265) is now over 100,000 on three recent dates.

 

Consider that Steer Davies Gleave noted:

YEAR | COMBINED TRAFFIC

2017 | 102844

2018 | 106676

2030 | 130773

2040 | 152040

 

The Steer Davies Gleave report did count in "ramp up" periods for both tolled bridges, in which volumes and revenue gradually ramp up to more normal levels after the project opening, as travelers take time to gain familiarity with a new tolled facility. The report states that I-65's "ramp up" will be more expedient since the route is mature and developed, where as I-265 will take more time as there is little development in that corridor (so far).

 

YEAR | I-65 | I-265

2017 | 70% | 60%

2018 | 85% | 70%

2019 | 100% | 80%

2020 | 100% | 90%

2021 | 100% | 100%

 

It looks like the tolls are keeping some drivers home or at least closer to base. I wonder what the new AADT figures will be when the state releases them. Will traffic increase by 30% on I-64 and US 31?

The real question is whether or not the investors on both bridge projects will see positive returns on their investments from the tolls.