A Closer Look at Dayton Manufacturing

The recent DDN tool & die story made me want to take a closer look at manufacturing in Dayton, as this economic activity has long been the raison 'd etre of the city. The following data if from the Census "County Business Patterns", and is for Montgomery County only. The data go only as far as 2005, so would not pick up the near term economic recovery. CBP data, in various forms, is available as far back as 1977, but I will just look at the near term...1998 to 2005, covering the recent recession and recovery.

First off, a listing of the NAICS classification system. This system classifies business establishments via a numerical coding system, starting with two digits, then adding numbers for sectors and subsectors..the more numbers the greater detail as to type of manufacturer. For manufacturing the classification code numbers start with 3. I take my analyses to the three numbers as any further will lead to suppression of data to ensure confidentiality. For these codes, 336 (Transportation Equipment) is the auto components and assembly industry), and 332 and 333 would included tool & die (and other metalworking and machine making enterprises).

Taking a look at the NAISC classifications that would include precision machining, including tools, dies, jigs, etc, but also machine shops, industrial mold making, and precision turnings:

These are part of the larger “Machinery”(NAISC 333)  and “Fabricated Metals” (NAISC 332) industrial sectors

With this chart one sees employment distribution for manufacturing establishments from 1998 to 2005 over the vari0us NAISC manufacturing sectors in the county, showing the decline over the past years. Since there is some suppression of data I top off this bar chart with an "unassigned" category, which is small enough to not effect the trends.

Tool & Die would be part of the larger Machinery and Fabricated Metals industrial sectors…pink and royal blue colors on this chart:

The above chart does show the overall decline in manufacturing. This  next one shows the relative proportion of the sectors As one can tell the largest block of employment was, at first, Transportation Equipment, which includes auto components, auto assembly, auto parts, and aerospace. Yet this block is not as dominant as one would expect; other manufacturing sectors, though small in employment, cumulatively comprise over a half of all manufacturing employment in the county. Nearly all sectors suffered some employment loss, though the largest has been in the Transportation Equipment sector, which shrank over the time frame (and is continuing to shrink due to the Delphi buyouts and shutdowns), resulting in a smaller, but more diversified manufacturing economy.

Another way of looking at the distribution of employment, showing the decline in the local automotive industry, and the large percentages in machinery and fabricated metals sectors. Beyond these sectors manufacturing is pretty diversified.

The top three manufacturing sectors. This chart shows the dramatic decline in the automotive sector employment, not reflecting the recent Delphi actions. Compare to the declining yet still pretty stable machinery and fabricated metals sectors (which includes the tool & die industry, but also metal plating, machine construction, etc)

Taking a closer look at the smaller sectors, one can see after the machinery and metalworking sectors comes Plastics & Rubber Products, which has surprisingly high employment in the area, as one doesn't hear much about this industry. Then there is that gaggle of smaller sectors near the bottom.

Taking an even closer look at the smaller sectors one can see the decline of printing (which includes quick-print shops), but also the strength of electronics and electrical equipment (which includes appliances). Perhaps the Tech Town concept wants to play on this possible strength in electronics manufacturing?

Taking look at the changing proportions of manufacturing employment (sans automotive), one can still see the strength of the metalworking/machinery sectors, yet the other two largish sectors, plastics and printing, are also declining, per the above line charts.

But how does manufacturing fit in to the larger employment picture? In 2005 manufacturing is second, after health care. The interesting thing about this chart is that manufacturing is only 18% of overall employment…..

Yet that is just jobs, not payroll. Next up will be a look at how much money manufacturing, and these other sectors, pump into the local economy