May 23, 20241 yr I’m not pessimistic by any means. I think the next decade will see far more growth than the last decade. A brief recession could be very helpful in taming inflation and getting us into a better interest rate environment.
May 23, 20241 yr ^^Sure, it's a big country, and people have dramatically different experiences. However, I would imagine impoverished cities generally have more unhappy people than those where higher wages and standards of living are prevalent. I don't think we're disagreeing really. ^An economic recession or job recession? Seems like we're in the latter in many ways. Really, we need a better consensus for the word "recession" since GDP negative growth isn't particularly relatable and helpful. And I'm not of the opinion that a brief recession, assuming we're already not in one, will lower inflation rates. Our $34 trillion debt alone (damnit, I said deficit in an earlier post) will remain in a huge thorn until very unpopular decisions are made. Edited May 23, 20241 yr by TBideon
May 23, 20241 yr 20 hours ago, KJP said: Funny how many of us are so pessimistic yet we're enjoying life and living well today. So the only things we can control are under control. Concerts and festivals sold out, amusement park attendance is up...yet somehow the economy sucks in the MAGA echo chamber.
May 23, 20241 yr ^But we're those paid with cash or credit? And if they were paid with credit, will they be paid off by the next month? It seems there are quite a few folks missing the fact that, everybody doesn't have it like that! And the expense of groceries, everyday staples, rent, mortgages, cars, even used ones have gone up astronomically and there are a lot of people struggling to keep up. There are 340 million or so people in the country. It only takes a small fraction of that to fill up the events you mentioned. I'm liberal and it's things like this I think the left brushes off WAY too cavalierly. Part of the reason there was such a shift in 2016. The people who are struggling don't feel like they are being heard.
May 23, 20241 yr Attendance at the aforementioned venues and travel at record levels can probably be chalked up to post-pandemic rebound moreso than the state of the economy. Edited May 24, 20241 yr by LibertyBlvd
May 24, 20241 yr There are always people struggling. Some for a little while. Some for a long time. I've been there. But I'm not there now. I can't do anything about others. I can only do for me and my family. Question is, how are each of you doing? Reagan asked us to ask ourselves 40 years ago -- "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?" (see below -- compare inflation, unemployment rates, interest rates, etc from 1984 to now, BTW). Then vote accordingly. A decade later, Clinton reminded us through all the noise "It's the economy, stupid!" "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
May 24, 20241 yr By some metrics we seem to be doing better than in the past sure, but in others we have a real problem that is not going to go away any time soon, if ever. The cost of housing is one, both rental and owner occupied. Last year I bought a very old house in Lakewood for $299,000. A simiar house across the street just sold for$375,000. The price history of my house shows it was bought and sold several times in the last 5 years starting with $129,000. So in five years time the houses went from $129,000 to $375,000. I think that's a problem for those entering the housing market. The other thing that differentiates us today from the past is the enormous amount of things we think we must have. Technology is one example. I remember when TV was free. We didn't have a portable phone. There was no internet. All those things are a necessity today and they cost a lot of money. Today we have so many things that we didn't have in the past and we have to pay for them. Living what is expected to be a normal life today is expensive. Sure, our quality of life has improved across the board but it all comes at a price - a very large price.
May 24, 20241 yr A few nice things this week in the M&A world: Master Craft, a billion dollar cabinet maker which recently moved its hqs from Indiana to Beachwood , acquired a smaller company giving it a wider range of products. Transdigm bought a small Canadian maker of firefighting equipment for aircraft. Blue Point Capital of Cleveland bought National Safety Apparel also of Cleveland with a view to making NSA an acquisition platform for related product lines. Crain's Cleveland covered all these; the Plain Dealer did not. Remember: It's the Year of the Snake
May 24, 20241 yr We've been hearing that a recession is just around the corner constantly for 2 years, until just recently when most real economists decided not so. Wish the armchair economists would give it a rest, too. Sorry all, but I think its just pointless handwringing.
May 24, 20241 yr ^ Many of the economic forecasting houses shifted gears earlier this year to wanting to talk about the upcoming election instead. You don’t need to peel the onion too much to see that they’re all saying the actual biggest risk to the economy is Trump winning. My hovercraft is full of eels
May 28, 20241 yr On 5/24/2024 at 12:12 PM, Dougal said: A few nice things this week in the M&A world: Master Craft, a billion dollar cabinet maker which recently moved its hqs from Indiana to Beachwood , acquired a smaller company giving it a wider range of products. Transdigm bought a small Canadian maker of firefighting equipment for aircraft. Blue Point Capital of Cleveland bought National Safety Apparel also of Cleveland with a view to making NSA an acquisition platform for related product lines. Crain's Cleveland covered all these; the Plain Dealer did not. A couple of Tuesday morning amendments: Nordson to spend $800mn to acquire Atrion, fluid infusion eqipment maker. Transdigm is buying a second company for $655mn Rapton Scientific, a maker of testing and measurement equip. Cleveland Cliffs is in talks to acquire some Russian owned mills in PA and IL Crains covered it all; the PD didn't. EDIT: Cleveland Business Journal covered the above mergers and acquisitions a couple of days late. Remember: It's the Year of the Snake
June 20, 2024Jun 20 Nice little spot in Forbes emphasizing growing Cleveland startup culture. https://www.forbes.com/sites/elizabethmacbride/2024/06/13/americas-new-startup-boom-emerges-in-legacy-cities/
June 25, 2024Jun 25 May BLS numbers are out. https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/oh_cleveland_msa.htm For Cleveland, Labor Force Data (household survey) is disappointing while the nonfarm numbers (employer survey) look okay. Labor Force shows a two-year loss (i.e. May 2024 numbers now lower than May 2022 numbers). On the other hand, the nonfarm numbers show modest gains both m/o/m and y/o/y with post-pandemic highs likely in June or July. State numbers also look bad. The household survey is now at five consecutive months of job losses. On the other hand, the employer survey shows four consecutive months of gains for the state with a new all-time high number of jobs. Anyhow, I think it's just more evidence that at least one of these two surveys is flawed or systematically biased.
June 25, 2024Jun 25 Ohio seems to have a negative image nationally. Boring, not a lot of natural beauty, closed factories, grey skies and harsh winters plus conservative politics. Those of us who live here know those impressions are filled with a coastal bias. The midwest in general has to fight nagative perceptions from the rest of the country. Having a deep red state government certainly doesn't help. Red states, other than Texas and Florida, usually perform poorly on most economic metrics. If we want to change our image perhaps we should start with our politics and vote out the Republicans who have a stranglehold on state policies.
June 25, 2024Jun 25 47 minutes ago, cadmen said: Ohio seems to have a negative image nationally. Boring, not a lot of natural beauty, closed factories, grey skies and harsh winters plus conservative politics. Those of us who live here know those impressions are filled with a coastal bias. The midwest in general has to fight nagative perceptions from the rest of the country. Having a deep red state government certainly doesn't help. Red states, other than Texas and Florida, usually perform poorly on most economic metrics. If we want to change our image perhaps we should start with our politics and vote out the Republicans who have a stranglehold on state policies. Fyi The Columbus Dispatch had a recent article listing Ohio at #42 out of 50 states (plus D.C.) for economic health.
June 26, 2024Jun 26 15 hours ago, cadmen said: Ohio seems to have a negative image nationally. Boring, not a lot of natural beauty, closed factories, grey skies and harsh winters plus conservative politics. Yeah, Ohio seems to have become the meme state, often described how I would think of Nebraska or Iowa (no disrespect to either of those states). My theory is that Ohio is just the smallest state everyone has heard of. Being the seventh largest state that may be more of an indicator of lack of geographic knowledge in the general population than an indictment of Ohio. It also doesn't help that Ohio has several mid size and smaller cities, we have only slightly fewer people than Illinois, but no Chicago for everyone to recognize.
June 26, 2024Jun 26 I learned the other day, from some friends who are working there, that “Only in Ohio” is a common expression among young South Koreans, when discussing things of a low-brow, boneheaded, “hold my beer” type of nature. My hovercraft is full of eels
June 26, 2024Jun 26 19 minutes ago, roman totale XVII said: I learned the other day, from some friends who are working there, that “Only in Ohio” is a common expression among young South Koreans, when discussing things of a low-brow, boneheaded, “hold my beer” type of nature. I've heard the same thing about young people in Europe. Apparently "Ohio" is quite the butt of a number of internet memes about crazy old USA.
June 26, 2024Jun 26 Author 22 hours ago, LlamaLawyer said: May BLS numbers are out. https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/oh_cleveland_msa.htm For Cleveland, Labor Force Data (household survey) is disappointing while the nonfarm numbers (employer survey) look okay. Labor Force shows a two-year loss (i.e. May 2024 numbers now lower than May 2022 numbers). On the other hand, the nonfarm numbers show modest gains both m/o/m and y/o/y with post-pandemic highs likely in June or July. State numbers also look bad. The household survey is now at five consecutive months of job losses. On the other hand, the employer survey shows four consecutive months of gains for the state with a new all-time high number of jobs. Anyhow, I think it's just more evidence that at least one of these two surveys is flawed or systematically biased. The Cleveland Labor Force numbers have for years not coincided or matched the actual total Nonfarm count- going back to at least 2004. You'll typically see a divergence of 50,000 less people between the Labor Force and Total Nonfarm numbers. The gap has never made sense to me.
June 26, 2024Jun 26 2 hours ago, Ethan said: Yeah, Ohio seems to have become the meme state, often described how I would think of Nebraska or Iowa (no disrespect to either of those states). My theory is that Ohio is just the smallest state everyone has heard of. Being the seventh largest state that may be more of an indicator of lack of geographic knowledge in the general population than an indictment of Ohio. It also doesn't help that Ohio has several mid size and smaller cities, we have only slightly fewer people than Illinois, but no Chicago for everyone to recognize. Speaking as a Wash DC area resident, I wouldn't say Chicago has such a hot reputation, either. Remember: It's the Year of the Snake
July 1, 2024Jul 1 Let’s do another one! Cleveland entrepreneurs of color to compete again By Ken Prendergast / July 1, 2024 After a successful inaugural effort of the Cleveland Equitable Development Initiative (CLE-EDI), the Cleveland Development Advisors (CDA) didn’t waste any time at all in deciding to pursue a second round of competitions for 2024-25. Applications open today for the CLE-EDI which aims to level the playing field for historically excluded real estate developers of color. MORE: https://neo-trans.blog/2024/07/01/lets-do-another-one-cleveland-entrepreneurs-of-color-to-compete-again/ "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
July 19, 2024Jul 19 June BLS numbers are in. Thoroughly meh. https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/oh_cleveland_msa.htm Household and Employer survey are both almost totally flat y/o/y. The surveys are at least relatively consistent with each other, but I have trouble trusting the numbers a lot at this point.
July 22, 2024Jul 22 8 minutes ago, Luke_S said: This is an absolutely massive project and could be transformational for Painesville/ Fair Port Harbor. There will more information in the coming week as additional releases are issued and a press conference held at the end of the week. Massive EPA grant will fund solar installations in Greater Cleveland and restore major brownfield Jul. 22, 2024 By Peter Krouse, cleveland.com CLEVELAND, Ohio – The U.S. Environmental Protection agency has awarded a $129 million grant to a Cuyahoga County-led partnership to install solar panels on local landfills, mothball a coal-fired power plant and return a major brownfield to natural habitat. The partnership, which includes Cuyahoga County and the cities of Cleveland and Painesville, is one of 25 applicants from across the country chosen by the U.S. to receive a federal Climate Pollution Reduction Grant. ... The grant will pay for the development of 63 megawatts of solar energy across several sites, said Mike Foley, administrator of Cuyahoga Green Energy, and allow the city of Painesville to close its coal-burning power plant. https://www.cleveland.com/news/2024/07/massive-epa-grant-will-fund-solar-installations-in-greater-cleveland-and-restore-major-brownfield.html Reposting here since there are projects in Cuyahoga County as well.
August 2, 2024Aug 2 Well this sucks. I’ve been taking our knives there about once a quarter for the last 10 years. https://www.clevescene.com/food-drink/service-wet-grinding-clevelands-sole-commercial-knife-sharpener-closing-after-119-years-44833668 My hovercraft is full of eels
August 12, 2024Aug 12 I like the Cleveland Foundation's essentially matching the city's $50 million for brownfiend reclamation. The administration details are sketchy, but at least the Foundation is doing something impactful for a change. https://www.crainscleveland.com/politics-policy/financial-plan-boost-site-readiness-fund-approved-city-council Remember: It's the Year of the Snake
August 12, 2024Aug 12 Meanwhile, in San Francisco ... "In [San Francisco's] metropolitan area, the delinquency rate among commercial mortgage-backed security loans for the lodging sector skyrocketed to 41.6% in June from 5.7% in June 2023, according to data from real-estate analytics firm Trepp." And we think Cleveland has it bad. https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial/san-francisco-is-sinking-in-bad-hotel-debt-4ace4f67?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1 Remember: It's the Year of the Snake
August 20, 2024Aug 20 July BLS numbers are out for Cleveland, and they're somewhat better: https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/oh_cleveland_msa.htm Basically flat y/o/y job growth, but we're back in the black for overall labor force growth y/o/y which is a relief. I'm still pretty skeptical about the numbers overall. On that note--I've seen a couple stories now about a potential one million job downward revision coming to job data tomorrow. Hopefully the Ohio metros don't get a huge share of that.
August 22, 2024Aug 22 I hate to go down the license plate path again, but there seems to be a bunch of out-of-state plates in town lately. In fact, while going into Cleveland on Clifton to pick up my son from school, I was driving behind a car from Arizona, next to a car from New York (Buffalo Bills bumper sticker) that was behind a car from Pennsylvania. I noticed that while we passed a parked car from Connecticut. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
August 22, 2024Aug 22 The BLS adjustment was really bad. It suggests that payrolls have been hugely overstated and helps explain some of the big variance between the establishment survey and household survey. This is a national issue, not just a Cleveland issue. That being said, Education and Health Services payrolls were actually revised *up*, and by a decent margin. Which is good news for Cleveland, since it's our biggest (and perhaps most important) employment sector.
August 22, 2024Aug 22 14 hours ago, KJP said: I hate to go down the license plate path again, but there seems to be a bunch of out-of-state plates in town lately. In fact, while going into Cleveland on Clifton to pick up my son from school, I was driving behind a car from Arizona, next to a car from New York (Buffalo Bills bumper sticker) that was behind a car from Pennsylvania. I noticed that while we passed a parked car from Connecticut. I love that game. Always interesting to me.
August 23, 2024Aug 23 On 8/21/2024 at 7:35 PM, KJP said: I hate to go down the license plate path again, but there seems to be a bunch of out-of-state plates in town lately. In fact, while going into Cleveland on Clifton to pick up my son from school, I was driving behind a car from Arizona, next to a car from New York (Buffalo Bills bumper sticker) that was behind a car from Pennsylvania. I noticed that while we passed a parked car from Connecticut. Get ready to add one from Louisiana in 6 days 😄
August 25, 2024Aug 25 On 8/22/2024 at 10:35 AM, KJP said: I hate to go down the license plate path again, but there seems to be a bunch of out-of-state plates in town lately. In fact, while going into Cleveland on Clifton to pick up my son from school, I was driving behind a car from Arizona, next to a car from New York (Buffalo Bills bumper sticker) that was behind a car from Pennsylvania. I noticed that while we passed a parked car from Connecticut. I live up the road from you Ken and I've noticed the same. LOTS of Bills fans in the area LOL
August 25, 2024Aug 25 I have to wonder if a Cleveland company just bought another Buffalo-area employer. The last time I noticed a surge of Buffalo-area license plates was when First Niagara Bank was bought by Key Corp. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
August 25, 2024Aug 25 11 minutes ago, KJP said: I have to wonder if a Cleveland company just bought another Buffalo-area employer. The last time I noticed a surge of Buffalo-area license plates was when First Niagara Bank was bought by Key Corp. I do know that CSU advertises in the Buffalo area as well.
August 25, 2024Aug 25 I guess to piggyback off of this, when I lived in Cleveland a few years ago and valeted on weekends, we had a lot of college kids work with us from John Carroll and quite a few of them were from the Buffalo area.
August 25, 2024Aug 25 Just now, guardianpayroll said: I guess to piggyback off of this, when I lived in Cleveland a few years ago and valeted on weekends, we had a lot of college kids work with us from John Carroll and quite a few of them were from the Buffalo area. That really is not that unusual. JCU has historical drawn many students from Buffalo and Pittsburgh.
August 25, 2024Aug 25 7 minutes ago, Htsguy said: That really is not that unusual. JCU has historical drawn many students from Buffalo and Pittsburgh. Yep I know over a dozen people from Buffalo and the outer ring of Pittsburgh suburbs that live/work in Cleveland. A lot of them are JCU alum. I'd assume a bunch of those plates are students or grads from that same pipeline. Edited August 25, 2024Aug 25 by downtownjoe
September 6, 2024Sep 6 Massive job estimate revisings occurring for metro areas. Quarterly job reports which are far more accurate than month to month have Cleveland CSA gaining 129k jobs year over year. 1,547,680 to 1,676,179 jobs q1 2023-q1 2024. this seems to acknowledge some undercounting. Massive jumps like this also occurred in Pittsburgh. Col. and Cincy achieved reasonable increases. MSA Cleveland 979,019 to 1,015,062 Again not monthly estimates so kind of bizarre. https://data.bls.gov/cew/apps/table_maker/v4/table_maker.htm#type=3&year=2024&qtr=1&own=0&ind=10&supp=0 https://data.bls.gov/cew/apps/table_maker/v4/table_maker.htm#type=3&year=2023&qtr=1&own=0&ind=10&supp=0
September 7, 2024Sep 7 23 hours ago, bwheats said: Massive job estimate revisings occurring for metro areas. Quarterly job reports which are far more accurate than month to month have Cleveland CSA gaining 129k jobs year over year. 1,547,680 to 1,676,179 jobs q1 2023-q1 2024. this seems to acknowledge some undercounting. Massive jumps like this also occurred in Pittsburgh. Col. and Cincy achieved reasonable increases. MSA Cleveland 979,019 to 1,015,062 Again not monthly estimates so kind of bizarre. https://data.bls.gov/cew/apps/table_maker/v4/table_maker.htm#type=3&year=2024&qtr=1&own=0&ind=10&supp=0 https://data.bls.gov/cew/apps/table_maker/v4/table_maker.htm#type=3&year=2023&qtr=1&own=0&ind=10&supp=0 Wow, that's excellent news. Hoping the trend continues and is reflected in population growth as well!
September 9, 2024Sep 9 On 9/6/2024 at 11:29 AM, bwheats said: Massive job estimate revisings occurring for metro areas. Quarterly job reports which are far more accurate than month to month have Cleveland CSA gaining 129k jobs year over year. 1,547,680 to 1,676,179 jobs q1 2023-q1 2024. this seems to acknowledge some undercounting. Massive jumps like this also occurred in Pittsburgh. Col. and Cincy achieved reasonable increases. MSA Cleveland 979,019 to 1,015,062 Again not monthly estimates so kind of bizarre. https://data.bls.gov/cew/apps/table_maker/v4/table_maker.htm#type=3&year=2024&qtr=1&own=0&ind=10&supp=0 https://data.bls.gov/cew/apps/table_maker/v4/table_maker.htm#type=3&year=2023&qtr=1&own=0&ind=10&supp=0 @bwheats If I compare MSA's, YOY from March 2023 to March 2024, there is strong growth in employment for Cleveland but there is a slight decline (-583) for Akron and nice uptick 3,369 for Canton. Where are you seeing 129K? Looks like Cleveland MSA and Pittsburgh MSA blew the doors off their peers in the region. EDIT: and am I reading this right that the Youngstown-Warren MSA lost 40,544 jobs from March 2023 to March 2024? What am I reading wrong here? EDIT2: and now when I look at the Cleveland BLS back data, I see Cleveland MSA employment falling hard (-17,331) from March 2023 to March 2024. WTF?? "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
September 10, 2024Sep 10 @KJP I pulled those numbers off the BLS website. Those are the updated numbers via the "quarterly census of employment" publication which purports to be far more accurate than the monthly job publications which are often revised dramatically. Uncertain as to why such drastic revisions. Possible undercounting for years since Covid and especially given the older populations of Cleveland and Pittsburgh, maybe an overestimation of early retirees? I have no clue. Here are the imbedded links again illustrating the changes. https://data.bls.gov/cew/apps/table_maker/v4/table_maker.htm#type=3&year=2024&qtr=1&own=0&ind=10&supp=0 (2024 q1) https://data.bls.gov/cew/apps/table_maker/v4/table_maker.htm#type=3&year=2023&qtr=1&own=0&ind=10&supp=0 (2023 q1)
September 10, 2024Sep 10 According to Crain's, Northpoint I and II's owners, Hertz Investment Group of LA, are up against a rollover refinancing requirement for $90 million this month and are showing no progress at obtaining a new loan. The current position is taxes and loan payments are up to date; it's what comes next that is a mystery. Hertz is another one of those US r. e. groups with murky Middle Eastern ownership and financing. https://www.crainscleveland.com/real-estate/woes-mount-hertz-owner-cleveland-skyscraper-north-point-tower Remember: It's the Year of the Snake
September 11, 2024Sep 11 On 9/6/2024 at 11:29 AM, bwheats said: Massive job estimate revisings occurring for metro areas. Quarterly job reports which are far more accurate than month to month have Cleveland CSA gaining 129k jobs year over year. 1,547,680 to 1,676,179 jobs q1 2023-q1 2024. this seems to acknowledge some undercounting. Massive jumps like this also occurred in Pittsburgh. Col. and Cincy achieved reasonable increases. MSA Cleveland 979,019 to 1,015,062 Again not monthly estimates so kind of bizarre. https://data.bls.gov/cew/apps/table_maker/v4/table_maker.htm#type=3&year=2024&qtr=1&own=0&ind=10&supp=0 https://data.bls.gov/cew/apps/table_maker/v4/table_maker.htm#type=3&year=2023&qtr=1&own=0&ind=10&supp=0 Sounds like really good news! I'm not familiar with these quarterly numbers. When you say "revisings" were they revised or is this actually the initial report of Q1 2024? I see that these numbers come from unemployment insurance--do you know if they get run through the infamous birth/death model? Are they counting jobs based on residence location or employment location (i.e. are they more like the houshold survey or establishment survey in terms of commuters)? Sorry if these are dumb questions. EDIT: I'm still not understanding the numbers. This source https://data.bls.gov/maps/cew/OH?period=2024-Q1&industry=10&geo_id=39000&chartData=4&distribution=1&pos_color=blue&neg_color=orange&showHideChart=show&ownerType=0 appears to show robust y/o/y growth, but nothing approaching 129K for the region. Edited September 11, 2024Sep 11 by LlamaLawyer
September 20, 2024Sep 20 https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/oh_cleveland_msa.htm August BLS numbers look okay. We're back into y/o/y growth. Unemployment is below 4% again too.
October 3, 2024Oct 3 Wasn't Cleveland supposed to announce a new company coming to the city? I could have sworn Blaine Griffin mentioned it in a story.
October 3, 2024Oct 3 1 hour ago, MyPhoneDead said: Wasn't Cleveland supposed to announce a new company coming to the city? I could have sworn Blaine Griffin mentioned it in a story. He did, but it hasn't been announced yet and it reportedly is being scaled back. I don't know who it is, but it's not Canon. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
October 3, 2024Oct 3 1 hour ago, KJP said: He did, but it hasn't been announced yet and it reportedly is being scaled back. I don't know who it is, but it's not Canon. By scaled back you mean the company is potentially bringing less workers or something worse?
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