2/3 ain't bad, but 3/3 would've sent a powerful message. Anyway, I'll take it. 4.5 games up, and still the best current record in MLB.

Charlie Sheen donates $50K to Reds Community Fund

panorama from a sold out GABP

 

http://www.reddit.com/r/cincinnati/comments/xpyyv/panoramic_image_i_created_of_the_reds_stadium/

 

5 in a row. Streakest team ever.

After dropping the first game in the Cubs series, the Reds won the next three to stay 4.5 ahead of the Pirates.

 

Now that the good news is out of the way, here's the bad news.  Joey Votto's knee rehab was proceeding well and it was looking like he might return from the DL this week.  But after Votto felt some knee soreness after participating in a sliding drill, he had additional surgery Friday night to "remove floating cartilage from the knee".  They estimate an added 7-10 days to the previous rehab time.  Votto might return by the end of August now.

Pirates down 4-2 against the Trolley Dodgers, top of the 7th.  Keeping my fingers crossed.

^ Must have worked.  Pirates lost and dropped five back of the Reds.

 

Because of a rare doubleheader Saturday, the Reds play seven games in the next six days at the GABP.  3 vs. Mets - 4 vs. Cubs

Reds took the first two games in the three game series with the Mets.  Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has dropped 7 of their last 10 games.  Both the Pirates and the Cardinals are now 7 behind the Reds.

I'm watching the pregame on FSN Ohio before the second game in this doubleheader. The announcers were saying how a lot of the Reds now 'live across the street' and had the chance to go home between games and eat out of their own refrigerator. So I guess that means the Banks?

I'm watching the pregame on FSN Ohio before the second game in this doubleheader. The announcers were saying how a lot of the Reds now 'live across the street' and had the chance to go home between games and eat out of their own refrigerator. So I guess that means the Banks?

 

I would imagine a lot of the players who keep permanent homes elsewhere (quite a few of them, if not most) rent apartments at The Banks.  Previously, most rented up in Mt. Adams; you can still occasionally see Joey Votto driving his Lamborghini down from the hill.

The Reds took 3 of 4 from the hapless Cubs.  Meanwhile, the Pirates and Cardinals beat up each other over the weekend - culminating in a 6 hour, 19 inning game on Sunday.

 

Reds are now 6.5 ahead of Pittsburgh and 8.5 ahead of St. Louis.

With Votto coming back. Im sure the Reds will have a shot at winning 100 games.

Nice to win a couple of games in Philly's House of Horrors. Lets go Reds!  :clap:

Yep...assured of at least a split and then home against the Cards...

 

PIT seems to have hit the wall with a sweep by the Dads.

 

.500 ball the rest of the way wins us the Central, I say.

 

BUT, as unusualfire said, wouldn't it be great to see the Redlegs win 100?!

 

76 wins with 37 left to play.  To reach 100 we must go:  24W-13L

 

That's .648!  Well over the .608 pace for the season but a small sample.  One game here or there decides it.  Let's start with a win to close out Philly tonight!

Nice to win a couple of games in Philly's House of Horrors. Lets go Reds!  :clap:

 

Once again, the Redlegs have the best record in the MLB.

 

.603, over the Nationals' .602

79-52

The fastest to 80 wins for the Reds since 1976.

It's been an awesome season.  Magic number is 24.

It's been an awesome season.

 

You can say that again. What a great season! I can't remember another year I have watched so much baseball. The Reds have been absolutely riveting.

 

They really could go all the way. Trying not to get my hopes up too high.

^Agreed it's been a great season, but I can't remember the last time they took a series from a truely great team.  Maybe the sweep of the Cards after the all star break?  Struggling mightily against good pitching like we did in both series against Philadelphia is NOT a good sign for the playoffs.

Unfortunately you have to play great teams to be able to win.  The only teams they have played with a winning record after the break has been the Cards and Buccos. Won 2 out of those 3 series.

 

It is disappointing that both match ups with Halladay had Leake starting opposite him.  Would have loved to see Latos or Cueto go up against him.

Swept the bucs. Magic number: 8!

 

Wish they would get to 100 wins, but that seems very unlikely at this point. They'd have to win 13 of the remaining 18 games, a .722 average.

 

Washington is the only team looking like they might reach 100, needing 11/19, or .579, which is lower than their season average of .622.

The wildcard scenario is dumb. The wildcard gets the first 2 games at home.

^It's bad luck, mostly, that the WC is going to go with a 2-3 format this year.  It's all Bud Selig's fault.  They didn't make the decision to do the second wild card until very late--after the TV playoff schedule was set.  They couldn't squeeze in the necessary travel time for the wild card winner (particularly because there may be a one game playoff that precedes the wild card playoff) and still make the required dates to start the later series.  So the only solution for this year was to let the Wild Card winner stay at home for the first two games of the divisional series.  It really stinks for the higher-seeded team (which will certainly include the Reds), but it should go to a 2-2-1 format next year.

 

At this point, I'm kind of hoping the Reds get the second best record.  Go on the road to the Giants as opposed to whoever wins the WC playoff (especially since that could be the Phillies at this point). 

The team that I'm most concerned about the Reds facing in the playoffs is the Giants due to their starting rotation that is perhaps the most solid of any team in recent years. Cain, Bumgarner, Vogelsong rarely have poor starts and Lincecum has gotten a lot better over the course of the season. With the Reds lineup still being anemic for stretches I think the Giants have more potential to beat the Reds that the Nationals, Braves (likely wildcard), or Cards (likely wildcard).

I'd be worried about a team like the Phillies.  They're streaking.  The Cardinals have been flailing.  If they get in, they will be limping. 

I really want a matchup with the Giants.  We've handled them well, and playing in their park is actually okay for our pitchers--their stadium is great for pitchers like Arroyo.  Conversely, our guys are used to pitching in a bandbox, but their guys aren't.  And I think the Reds have had Cain's number for whatever reason.

 

A couple weeks ago I didn't want anything to do with the Cardinals.  Now, though, Philly is definitely the team I hope doesn't get one of the Wild Cards.  The Nats are another team I don't really want to see--they manhandled the Reds this year. 

I really want a matchup with the Giants.  We've handled them well, and playing in their park is actually okay for our pitchers--their stadium is great for pitchers like Arroyo.  Conversely, our guys are used to pitching in a bandbox, but their guys aren't.  And I think the Reds have had Cain's number for whatever reason.

 

A couple weeks ago I didn't want anything to do with the Cardinals.  Now, though, Philly is definitely the team I hope doesn't get one of the Wild Cards.  The Nats are another team I don't really want to see--they manhandled the Reds this year. 

 

This is my thinking, except I am not sophisticated enough to talk about pitchers like that.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8378511/pete-rose-banishment-pact-hit-auction-block

I really want a matchup with the Giants.  We've handled them well, and playing in their park is actually okay for our pitchers--their stadium is great for pitchers like Arroyo.  Conversely, our guys are used to pitching in a bandbox, but their guys aren't.  And I think the Reds have had Cain's number for whatever reason.

 

A couple weeks ago I didn't want anything to do with the Cardinals.  Now, though, Philly is definitely the team I hope doesn't get one of the Wild Cards.  The Nats are another team I don't really want to see--they manhandled the Reds this year. 

 

This is my thinking, except I am not sophisticated enough to talk about pitchers like that.

In a lot of ways, Arroyo is just not a pitcher designed to pitch in a place like GABP, which is a home run haven.  I say that he is not ideal because of two things:  1) he doesn't strike out a lot of people, and 2) he gives up a lot of fly balls.  That's a problem in GABP, because it means that the ball is being put in play, and is being put in play in the air--which is going to lead to a lot of home runs like Arroyo gave up last year. 

 

Looking at some of his advanced stats this year, Arroyo has been able to improve on those metrics somehow.  He's striking out almost one more batter per every nine innings, and his K% has gone from 12.6 to 15.6%.  That's a nice jump.  And he is getting more ground balls this year than last.  Last year his GB/FB ratio was .91, meaning that he would get .91 ground balls for every fly ball given up--or, put differently, meaning that he gave up more balls in the air than on the ground.  Contrast that with a true groundball pitcher like Mike Leake--even though Leake has struggled this year, he still has a GB/FB ratio of 1.83 according to FanGraphs.

 

All of which is a roundabout way of me saying that Arroyo pitching in somewhere like AT&T Park (or Dodger Stadium) is not a scary prospect for the playoffs.  He gives up lots of fly balls, but those stadiums are huge compared to GABP, meaning that giving up lots of fly balls does not have the same negative effects it can here.  Bailey and Latos both have better GB/FB ratios than Arroyo (though not by that much for Bailey) and both strike out more guys than Arroyo (though again not by that much for Bailey). 

Arroyo's GB/FB this year is right at 1, by the way. 

Thanks for the lesson on stats recorded and how to interpret them re: ballparks. Makes perfect sense. I didn't even know anyone recorded the GB/FG ratio. (Not afraid to admit my ignorance, either. ;))

They also record line drive percentage and a whole bunch of other stuff like pitch type/speed/break/location, etc.  To say nothing of the various evaluative stats that people are using now based on all these materials. The best part is that in a lot of ways it's fans that are leading the statistical revolution (though MLB teams are now employing more and more statistical analysis).  My favorite site for all this stuff is FanGraphs, but you can't go wrong with Baseball Prospectus or Baseball Reference either. 

Statistical analysis in baseball has taken an unhappy and drastic turn.  The basis for most of this analysis is to prove why teams need to focus on child labor and jettison anyone over the age of 28 for someone who's 22.  Then the plan is, get five good years out of him and replace them with the next guy who just started legally drinking.

 

Often it seems sabermetric fans and writers forget everything they used to know about the game and swear up and down these stats mathematicians cooked up in the last six years are the only things that could be remotely relevant to the success of a baseball team.  People that value the human element of the sport are vilified for being too old-school and out of touch.  Not to mention sabermetricians come off as so condescending when discussing the game in print articles and on video.  It's as if they invented baseball in 2004.

 

 

Cool, thanks for the primer. I'm a fairly casual sports fan, mostly paying attention to whether or not my teams win. :) But I am a casual math nerd, too, so I appreciate the stats aspect.

 

Magic Number: 4!

Statistical analysis in baseball has taken an unhappy and drastic turn.  The basis for most of this analysis is to prove why teams need to focus on child labor and jettison anyone over the age of 28 for someone who's 22.  Then the plan is, get five good years out of him and replace them with the next guy who just started legally drinking.

 

Often it seems sabermetric fans and writers forget everything they used to know about the game and swear up and down these stats mathematicians cooked up in the last six years are the only things that could be remotely relevant to the success of a baseball team.  People that value the human element of the sport are vilified for being too old-school and out of touch.  Not to mention sabermetricians come off as so condescending when discussing the game in print articles and on video.  It's as if they invented baseball in 2004.

 

 

 

Tell us how you really feel?  ;)

 

I am not a full-fledged SABR fan, but I like a mix of it.  I read a lot of Dave Cameron (at FanGraphs) and Jonah Keri (at Grantland).  But I also read a lot of Tom Verducci (at SI) and Jon Heyman (CBS).  I'm not sure Heyman has ever even heard of WAR. 

 

I think there's room for a happy medium.  I like that SABR has led to rethinking some old saws; it never made sense to me as a kid (in the 1980s) why a "win" was given so much value, when a guy could lose a game 1-0 and take the loss, but turn around and give up 5 runs in a "win."  It's so dependent on other factors.  I guess I don't mind having stats to put a lot of old stuff into context, and I will say that the stuff they do as far as pitch location, movement, and everything is really great--and to me is just putting into a more usable form stuff that you would hear from scouts or baseball people in the past. 

I always think it is weird when pitchers are considered to be pitching a good game when either luck or good fielding are responsible for no runs being scored. A pitcher could even give up a bunch of hits, but as long as runs aren't scored, all is well.

 

I guess it makes sense psychologically. Once a pitcher gives up a run, they get discouraged. But a few hits maybe don't have the same effect. But if the hits keep coming, it's obvious they will lead to scoring at some point. Managers don't seem to make use of that obvious fact, though, until the opportunity for prevention becomes clean-up.

OT but I scored my NLDS tix in the lottery today!  Go Reds!

Good job, I got the no dice but thanks for playing email a couple of days back.  Hopefully I get a shot at the WS. 

 

Were you able to get good seats?  When I got tickets in 2010 they were in the nosebleeds even though I was online 2 minutes after the sales went live. 

Tickets on StubHub for the playoff games are not too highly priced.

Good job, I got the no dice but thanks for playing email a couple of days back.  Hopefully I get a shot at the WS. 

 

Were you able to get good seats?  When I got tickets in 2010 they were in the nosebleeds even though I was online 2 minutes after the sales went live.

 

524 and 526.  Not bad.  Upper deck but behind HP.  I had better for the unnecessary LCS in '10.

Dusty is in the hospital for an irregular heartbeat. I hope he gets well soon.

I won the lottery for this round of playoff tickets, but I could only get nosebleed seats for game 5, which I'm hoping won't happen!

The Cubs beat the Cards today. The Reds can clinch the division tonight. But Dusty is still in the hospital in Chicago. Won't be the same i guess if they clinch tonight.

To someone who is handy with the Twitter:

 

See if you can get #clinchmob trending tonight. As in "#Clinchmob on Fountain Square! Get down here!"

 

You're welcome for the idea.

Lame. What's up with FOX not showing the celebration????

For me, it's poetic that the Reds beat the Dodgers to clinch the division. Unfortunately, I'm stuck in the losing team's town for the celebration.

Only a half game behind for best record, but I'm still not even sure that I want the Reds to face the WC winner.  Hard to know at this point.

OH BOY. Congrats Homer Bailey on the NO HITTER!!!!

Now that was exciting!  The Gnats are down to StL.