A really well-written commentary on some of today's major socio-economic issues (oil dependency / foreclosure crisis / retiring baby boomers) and how it relates to a reversal in suburban flight.

 

 

March 2008 Atlantic Monthly

The subprime crisis is just the tip of the iceberg. Fundamental changes in American life may turn today’s McMansions into tomorrow’s tenements.

 

by Christopher B. Leinberger

 

 

The URL for this article is http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200803/subprime.

I have always seen this coming. In European Cities the "slums" are often in the suburbs. I lived in Reston  ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reston%2C_Virginia )  , mentioned in the article, before the 1990 town center was built. Even then, it was a very walkable place -not a typical suburb. They were always pretty thoughtful about how they developed things unlike some of the surronding communities (ie Sterling etc)

Extremely interesting read; something many of us have been speculating for a while now.

 

This is perhaps the most telling example of the cause and the most grim glimpse into the future of suburbia.

Because the population is growing, families with children will still grow in absolute number—according to U.S. Census data, there will be about 4 million more households with children in 2025 than there were in 2000. But more than 10 million new single-family homes have already been built since 2000, most of them in the suburbs.

Not that I hate suburbs, but honestly, it's about time the trend reversed. Urban cores have been dying for decades and it's about time that they see a second life.

  This future is not likely to wear well on suburban housing. Many of the inner-city neighborhoods that began their decline in the 1960s consisted of sturdily built, turn-of-the-century row houses, tough enough to withstand being broken up into apartments, and requiring relatively little upkeep. By comparison, modern suburban houses, even high-end McMansions, are cheaply built. Hollow doors and wallboard are less durable than solid-oak doors and lath-and-plaster walls. The plywood floors that lurk under wood veneers or carpeting tend to break up and warp as the glue that holds the wood together dries out; asphalt-shingle roofs typically need replacing after 10 years. Many recently built houses take what structural integrity they have from drywall—their thin wooden frames are too flimsy to hold the houses up.

Really?  My plaster is always falling off the lath.  It's more like concrete than plaster, by the way.

This future is not likely to wear well on suburban housing. Many of the inner-city neighborhoods that began their decline in the 1960s consisted of sturdily built, turn-of-the-century row houses, tough enough to withstand being broken up into apartments, and requiring relatively little upkeep. By comparison, modern suburban houses, even high-end McMansions, are cheaply built. Hollow doors and wallboard are less durable than solid-oak doors and lath-and-plaster walls. The plywood floors that lurk under wood veneers or carpeting tend to break up and warp as the glue that holds the wood together dries out; asphalt-shingle roofs typically need replacing after 10 years. Many recently built houses take what structural integrity they have from drywall—their thin wooden frames are too flimsy to hold the houses up.

Really? My plaster is always falling off the lath. It's more like concrete than plaster, by the way.

 

Well, my house turns 138 this year and the plaster is doing just fine. :)

My plaster is great as well...except for one spot where I was stupid and neglected a small gap letting water in from outside...but till the plaster was much easier to replace than water-damaged wallboard (luckily the wood was OK).

My ceiling plaster is coming off, I got cracks and crazing in the paint in every room.  The earthquakes in my county are becoming more frequent. 

 

More broadly, though, do you think that new houses built to a "minimal specification" where the plumbing and windows degrade, the walls go out of square and the wallboard goes kaput?  I don't know too many people who bought new homes.  Most of my small talk about homes is about appliances and heating systems that give out.  Houses need new shingles at intervals, paint, and to upgrade the windows to something with good seals , double panes and an inert gas filling.

  This future is not likely to wear well on suburban housing. Many of the inner-city neighborhoods that began their decline in the 1960s consisted of sturdily built, turn-of-the-century row houses, tough enough to withstand being broken up into apartments, and requiring relatively little upkeep. By comparison, modern suburban houses, even high-end McMansions, are cheaply built. Hollow doors and wallboard are less durable than solid-oak doors and lath-and-plaster walls. The plywood floors that lurk under wood veneers or carpeting tend to break up and warp as the glue that holds the wood together dries out; asphalt-shingle roofs typically need replacing after 10 years. Many recently built houses take what structural integrity they have from drywall—their thin wooden frames are too flimsy to hold the houses up.

Really?  My plaster is always falling off the lath.  It's more like concrete than plaster, by the way.

 

Well, my house turns 138 this year and the plaster is doing just fine. :)

 

Obviously every old house is going to need maintenance, but I think it can generally be agreed that old houses were built better, which I'm guessing can be attributed to the idea that they'd need to last longer. These days, home building is an exact science, sometimes even made in assembly line fashion. That's a different perspective.

My house is nearly 80 years old and I think it would take bomb to destroy it.

^ Mine is too!

 

I find it interesting how people say the housing construction industry will be back by 09.   I just don't see coming back like the past 50 years.      We have more of a supply of houses than demand calls for and the population doesn't look like it is going to grow that much anytime in the near future.    If you plan on working and surviving in the housing industry, you will have to get creative by rehabbing and rebuilding in prime locations near MASS TRANSIT!

 

Obviously every old house is going to need maintenance, but I think it can generally be agreed that old houses were built better, which I'm guessing can be attributed to the idea that they'd need to last longer. These days, home building is an exact science, sometimes even made in assembly line fashion. That's a different perspective.

 

I attribute it somewhat to the fact they didn't have the technology to manufacture cheaper materials back in the day.

that and corner cutting greedy developers, contractors on so on, and people that want a giant place over location or quality. Robber Barons aside, we are in pretty greedy world now.

^ Mine is too!

 

I find it interesting how people say the housing construction industry will be back by 09.   I just don't see coming back like the past 50 years.      We have more of a supply of houses than demand calls for and the population doesn't look like it is going to grow that much anytime in the near future.    If you plan on working and surviving in the housing industry, you will have to get creative by rehabbing and rebuilding in prime locations near MASS TRANSIT!

 

i agree....going off of the numbers in the article, 10 million new single family homes built since 2000, if they stop ALL construction today, they should still have enough to satisfy demand for almost 20 years!  people need to wake up to the fact that the housing market is never going to rebound to the crazy levels we've seen in the past.

^ Mine is too!

 

I find it interesting how people say the housing construction industry will be back by 09.   I just don't see coming back like the past 50 years.      We have more of a supply of houses than demand calls for and the population doesn't look like it is going to grow that much anytime in the near future.    If you plan on working and surviving in the housing industry, you will have to get creative by rehabbing and rebuilding in prime locations near MASS TRANSIT!

 

i agree....going off of the numbers in the article, 10 million new single family homes built since 2000, if they stop ALL construction today, they should still have enough to satisfy demand for almost 20 years!  people need to wake up to the fact that the housing market is never going to rebound to the crazy levels we've seen in the past.

 

I think the big difference is "building new homes" and "occupying new homes".

 

I think in most cities there are plenty of homes to be rehabbed, or downsized too.  All those people who live in big a$$ homes, my parents especially, need to downsize!!

that and corner cutting greedy developers, contractors on so on, and people that want a giant place over location or quality. Robber Barons aside, we are in pretty greedy world now.

 

I don't think that we've cornered the market on greed, I just think that there are more materials and options available to developers now. It is easier to build substandard structures because new technology makes it possible. Back in the day factory owners put their workers through hell. That was greed, wasn't it? Isn't that where the term "robber baron" originated?

 

I also think that for as much as we say that they don't build them like they used to, we also do not see all the buildings that did not stand the test of time. It is tough to acknowledge what our eye's don't see. My house is still here, but there are a lot of structures that no longer exist that were built around the birthday of my house.

^that is why I said "robber barons aside" with regard to greed. I have had old houses, a middle aged home and a new home. It seems people with newer homes have many more issues with quality  than older . But I agree if I understand your point that the crappily built older homes are gone now. Think about all the worker homes that once lined the flats. My concern is that  fewer new homes will stand the test of time given widespread quality complaints. I met a contruction worker who was working on the Pinnacle and Condo conversion of an old building next door (is it Cloak or Hat Factory?) He had many, many points about how things were just done differently back then and how solid a foundation the old building was to work on.

I'm teaching a course here in Northern Virginia, and had my students read the Leinberger article and a couple of them had a dark sought of aha! moment when they realized he was referencing their community. So far they've had their eyes open but they aren't quite ready to head for the city.

^that is why I said "robber barons aside" with regard to greed. I have had old houses, a middle aged home and a new home. It seems people with newer homes have many more issues with quality  than older . But I agree if I understand your point that the crappily built older homes are gone now. Think about all the worker homes that once lined the flats. My concern is that  fewer new homes will stand the test of time given widespread quality complaints. I met a contruction worker who was working on the Pinnacle and Condo conversion of an old building next door (is it Cloak or Hat Factory?) He had many, many points about how things were just done differently back then and how solid a foundation the old building was to work on.

 

Good point about the new vs. old and how our new McMansions probably won't last like the ohio victorians have lasted. I do have one outlier: I have heard that the amish and menonites construct pretty solid structures. The Clinton Courts are going up across the street from my house. My father-in-law, a carpenter of sorts, was amazed at how tightly they were putting the home together. Even though the materials were cheaper and not as good as the old stuff, he said that those townhomes will last longer than normal new construction because of the thoroughness and quality of the construction technique. I heard that menonites are also constructing the Avenue District townhomes--hope that bodes well for them as well.

not to be nosey but where generally in NOVA? I was always a near DC suburban kid escaping to the city for mayhem and sanity. There is a lot of suburb loving around there.

University of Mary Washington.

that and corner cutting greedy developers, contractors on so on, and people that want a giant place over location or quality. Robber Barons aside, we are in pretty greedy world now.

 

I don't think that we've cornered the market on greed, I just think that there are more materials and options available to developers now. It is easier to build substandard structures because new technology makes it possible. Back in the day factory owners put their workers through hell. That was greed, wasn't it? Isn't that where the term "robber baron" originated?

 

I also think that for as much as we say that they don't build them like they used to, we also do not see all the buildings that did not stand the test of time.  It is tough to acknowledge what our eye's don't see. My house is still here, but there are a lot of structures that no longer exist that were built around the birthday of my house.

 

It's not just what is available, it's what's not available as well.  Solid hardwood doors and trim or slate roofs last a long time, but the raw materials and the skilled labor to work them are rarer and more expensive than they used to be.

"she traded her 15-minute commute to the bank's Manhattan office for a one-and-a-half-hour drive, for which she had to buy a car."

 

That would be the equivalent of living in Tremont and working downtown, and then living in Tremont and working in YOUNGSTOWN.

That article is so dead on, I have worked in both city and suburb and all of the points are valid.  The idea of a "go-getter" in the suburban offices was who could bake the best cookies.

 

Not surprisingly, recruiters often have a hard time getting 20-somethings to consider jobs in the suburbs.

 

This is so true with 30 and 40-somethings as well.  Every freakin recruiter that calls me is trying to hawk some job way the f**k out in the burbs even though I have said repeatedly that I won't do it.  All of my friends have the same complaint about recruiters.