1 hour ago, metrocity said:

^That makes sense, looking on the map I figured more like 20 miles actual distance. I've been there, and you were lucky to see the skyscrapers of downtown let alone the Hollywood sign. She's pretty high up. They bought it for the million dollar view. The house is a nice little 1950's ranch house. It's a tear down to the next buyer.

 

Back in 1950 it was probably still inconceivable that the entire LA basin could be filled with single-family homes but by 1970 it was a reality.  It is said that that 1990 was the true and final build-out of Southern California after Orange County was completely overrun. 

 

 

 

 

 

its not just air quality, everything in nature is jumping back up due to the shutdown. water quality, the land, coyotes walking down michigan avenue in chicago, everything. it's really something. as good side effect as there can be with all the death and bad economic news.

 

 

For as much praise as Ohio has been getting for acting early and aggressively with stay-at-home orders, our streets aren't nearly as empty as that, or what I've seen of New York.  Maybe these photos are just a matter of good timing, but Cincinnati feels less like a global pandemic creepy apocalypse and more like just another Sunday.  

Consider that this was the case two years ago:

 

 

It will be fascinating to see how the air quality metrics look this spring, and how they compare to last year.

11 hours ago, jjakucyk said:

For as much praise as Ohio has been getting for acting early and aggressively with stay-at-home orders, our streets aren't nearly as empty as that, or what I've seen of New York.  Maybe these photos are just a matter of good timing, but Cincinnati feels less like a global pandemic creepy apocalypse and more like just another Sunday.  

 

That's what makes the dramatic improvement in air quality so remarkable to me.  It won't require shutting down the coal power plants or eliminating cars & trucks & jets.  These things just need to be improved.  The vehicles can be transitioned to electric power over time.

 

I continue to be fairly skeptical of battery-powered electric buses because I am not confident in our ability to build and dispose of large batteries in a way that is a net positive.  Rebuilding the overhead electric transmission lines that once powered Cincinnati's vast streetcar and trolleybus network would be incredibly expensive, but it might make sense on a few of the busier lines.  Seattle recently studied "connecting the dots" between sections of its network where diesel buses run one half or more of their route under overhead electric wires and the capital costs were ridiculous, but given the fact that much of their electric power comes from hydro their gross improvement would be more dramatic than here. 

beavers take to the streets of berlin germany

 

 

in central park, but still its pretty bold for broad daylight.

 

 

On 4/10/2020 at 10:34 PM, jmecklenborg said:

 

That's what makes the dramatic improvement in air quality so remarkable to me.  It won't require shutting down the coal power plants or eliminating cars & trucks & jets.  These things just need to be improved.

Long term to address climate change you still need to eliminate them or there has to be a massive decrease in production and consumption like we are seeing now, or both.

2 hours ago, Cavalier Attitude said:

Long term to address climate change you still need to eliminate them or there has to be a massive decrease in production and consumption like we are seeing now, or both.

 

Many of the oldest and least-efficient coal plants in the U.S. shut down in the past ten years.  Some utilities built new natural gas power plants on the site of the torn-down coal plants in order to take advantage of the transmission lines.  Natural gas pollutes roughly 1/2 as much as a modern coal plant.  

 

55 minutes ago, jmecklenborg said:

 

Many of the oldest and least-efficient coal plants in the U.S. shut down in the past ten years.  Some utilities built new natural gas power plants on the site of the torn-down coal plants in order to take advantage of the transmission lines.  Natural gas pollutes roughly 1/2 as much as a modern coal plant.  

 

And yet total US emissions have been flat for the past ten years.

45 minutes ago, Cavalier Attitude said:

And yet total US emissions have been flat for the past ten years.

 

Then electricity generation is not a huge pollution problem.  Transportation would be my guess --  more trucks and SUVs.  And industrial activity.  No one wants to live downwind of a refinery!

Additional semis too.

I'm just pointing out that the long-term threat (climate change) has been completely unaddressed. Pollution has decreased in urban areas because it has been exported and diluted across the exurbs of the US and the shipping channels that drive global trade.

nice to see coal dropping off fast and gas and wind on the ups.

8 hours ago, mrnyc said:

nice to see coal dropping off fast and gas and wind on the ups.

 

It was enabled by fracking, not "Obama's War On Coal". 

Consensus seems to be that reductions from the lockdown are but a fraction of what's necessary to actually mitigate climate change.  And that's warming to the 2°C level which is still pretty bad but at least somewhat manageable, not any sort of reversal.  Total emissions from China have only dropped about 25%, and that's due mainly to manufacturing shutdown, while other countries dropped less than that.  Yes automobile emissions have dropped a lot more, and that's been one of the biggest factors in improving local air quality, but trucking hasn't decreased much, nor has electricity, natural gas, or much other manufacturing that may not create much particulate or other noxious pollution, but still pump tons of CO2 into the air.  

 

A 50% drop in car driving is a lot, but the whole transportation sector is responsible for 25-30% of US emissions, and personal vehicles only make up about 60% of the transportation sector's consumption, the rest being trucks, trains, airplanes, boats, etc.  So that 50% drop in car driving gives less than a 10% reduction in total emissions.  Still significant, but not as much as it might initially seem.  Of course total transportation sector emissions have gone down more, because of reductions in plane travel (which I think is only 2-3% of total fuel consumption) and somewhat reduced trucking and other transportation.  

 

Also, the switch from coal to natural gas power plants is a red herring.  The glut of natural gas has come mostly from fracking, and I've seen nothing to suggest this is anything but a temporary bounty, since fracked wells deplete much faster than traditional reserves.  Not to bely the benefits to local air quality, which are significant, but a 50% reduction in carbon emissions from coal, which is monstrously high, means there's still a very long way to go, much like the car driving example above.  It's like "my old truck only got 2MPG, but my new one gets 4MPG, problem solved!"  

But to Jake's point, the discovery of gas reserves from fracking has let to really bring down the benefits and needs of coal. Gas was cleaner and cheaper and produces more power than burning coal. Hence, why it is used more. Oil is more efficient than coal too (hence why cars never ran on coal). 

It may deplete quicker than traditional gas reserves and in 10-15 years we may be back to where we were in 2010, but that gives 10-15 more years to better come up with new technologies and create efficiencies with them to help allow them to be used as an alternative in a mass scaled environment.

But there's no guarantee that gas will stay cheaper as fields get depleted.  Germany and Japan increased their coal usage after shutting down nuclear plants.  If gas goes back to more "normal" prices where it's only feasible to be used for "peaker" plants in times of high demand, what will replace the base load then?  Renewables can only do so much.  

On 4/24/2020 at 9:20 AM, jjakucyk said:

Consensus seems to be that reductions from the lockdown are but a fraction of what's necessary to actually mitigate climate change.  And that's warming to the 2°C level which is still pretty bad but at least somewhat manageable, not any sort of reversal.  Total emissions from China have only dropped about 25%, and that's due mainly to manufacturing shutdown, while other countries dropped less than that.  Yes automobile emissions have dropped a lot more, and that's been one of the biggest factors in improving local air quality, but trucking hasn't decreased much, nor has electricity, natural gas, or much other manufacturing that may not create much particulate or other noxious pollution, but still pump tons of CO2 into the air.  

 

A 50% drop in car driving is a lot, but the whole transportation sector is responsible for 25-30% of US emissions, and personal vehicles only make up about 60% of the transportation sector's consumption, the rest being trucks, trains, airplanes, boats, etc.  So that 50% drop in car driving gives less than a 10% reduction in total emissions.  Still significant, but not as much as it might initially seem.  Of course total transportation sector emissions have gone down more, because of reductions in plane travel (which I think is only 2-3% of total fuel consumption) and somewhat reduced trucking and other transportation.  

 

Also, the switch from coal to natural gas power plants is a red herring.  The glut of natural gas has come mostly from fracking, and I've seen nothing to suggest this is anything but a temporary bounty, since fracked wells deplete much faster than traditional reserves.  Not to bely the benefits to local air quality, which are significant, but a 50% reduction in carbon emissions from coal, which is monstrously high, means there's still a very long way to go, much like the car driving example above.  It's like "my old truck only got 2MPG, but my new one gets 4MPG, problem solved!"  

 

 

looks like its much more impactful than that  -- i think trucking surged at first, but has since fallen way off:

 

 

Trucking

 

A recent survey showed nearly half of carriers (48%) have reported “significantly” decreased freight levels throughout the U.S. A number of areas, such as the eastern part of the U.S., have been particularly impacted.

 

***

 

Electricity

 

demand has also contracted with factories shuttered and businesses closed as people work from home.

 

“Changes to how and when electricity is used during lockdowns have transformed the shape of electricity demand over the course of the day in some regions, with the pattern on weekdays now resembling the pattern usually seen only on Sundays,” the report said.

 

For the full year, the IEA expects electricity demand to fall 5%, which would be the largest decline since the Great Depression.

 

 

Gas

 

This means a falloff in demand for natural gas after 10 years of uninterrupted growth.

 

“This decline is less than the anticipated fall in oil demand, reflecting the fact that natural gas is less exposed to the collapse in demand for transportation fuels. But it nonetheless represents a huge shock to a gas industry that is used to robust growth in consumption,” the report said.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/energy-demand-set-to-fall-the-most-on-record-this-year-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-iea-says.html

Edited May 1, 20205 yr by mrnyc

A 5% decrease in electricity demand over a full year is insignificant in the face of climate change.  Don't we need to be reducing by like half to make any meaningful impact?  Also, a 5% decrease leading to a "huge shock to [the] gas industry" shows how messed up priorities and expectations are.  Growth at any cost is a major part of the problem.  So those nearly half of trucking companies may also consider a 5% reduction to be a "significant" decrease just because of the nature of our race-to-the-bottom economy.  

A business climate far more focused on gross revenue rather than margin and profitability leads to that.

Traffic in the Uncool Crescent is way up today. Are that many people going to the dentist, having outpatient procedures and taking Fido to the vet?

Yeah, I have noticed traffic being up since discussions of "reopening" started. Unfortunately, I think many of the smog reduction benefits will be short lived. However, if the average 5-day-per-week white collar office worker start working from home even one day per week, the reduction in traffic and emissions in the long run will be significant.