Nope, I ain't depressed. Just thought this was an interesting starting point for an interesting discussion.....

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Why the demise of civilisation may be inevitable

Source:  Copyright 2008, New Scientist

Date:  April 2, 2008

Byline:  Debora MacKenzie

 

DOOMSDAY. The end of civilisation. Literature and film abound with tales of plague, famine and wars which ravage the planet, leaving a few survivors scratching out a primitive existence amid the ruins. Every civilisation in history has collapsed, after all. Why should ours be any different?

 

Doomsday scenarios typically feature a knockout blow: a massive asteroid, all-out nuclear war or a catastrophic pandemic (see "Will a pandemic bring down civilisation?"). Yet there is another chilling possibility: what if the very nature of civilisation means that ours, like all the others, is destined to collapse sooner or later?

 

A few researchers have been making such claims for years. Disturbingly, recent insights from fields such as complexity theory suggest that they are right. It appears that once a society develops beyond a certain level of complexity it becomes increasingly fragile. Eventually, it reaches a point at which even a relatively minor disturbance can bring everything crashing down....

 

From issue 2650 of New Scientist magazine, 02 April 2008, page 32-35

 

 

read more!

http://www.climateark.org/shared/reader/welcome.aspx?linkid=97741

 

 

 

:roll:

:drunk:

:evil:

:shoot:

What? You people can't engage in deep philosophical conversations?? I think this stuff is fascinating.

Clearly its a sore subject LOL

 

If we didn't want civilization to continue, none of us would ever want to have kids. If they're like I was, they're a pain in the @ss.

 

Im concerned about where technology is heading and its impact on society.

 

Grid Technology will cure AIDS and other diseases as we're able to eliminate all the variables, but curing diseases will result in over population. As the third world gets richer, they may have less kids we're talking about a very distant future. Another thing about viruses like AIDs is that they mutate fast and eventually they can become airborne.

 

Trinary Code (as opposed to binary 01001001)will allow us to compress data much more efficiently so not only will gigabyte s of data be transfered at the speed of light and the information itself will be more compressed.

 

Fiber optic infrastructure will prevail and outdated infrastructure used for phone lines will be phased out. Every city. Information at the speed of light.

 

Of course technology can be used for good or bad but it's up to those who have access to it.

 

I've been working my way through Jared Diamond's "Collapse - How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed," cited above. I deliberately say "working" because it is hard work for me. The book is well written and a good read, but it's information-dense and it takes some effort for me to assimilate it and keep track of the linkages Diamond traces.

 

I'm inclined to think that collapse is an intrinsic part of societies' life cycles because people have a basic tendency to seek ease, often without regard to future consequences or knowledge of historic precedent. Most often we use comparatively simple short-term solutions to create near-overwhelmingly difficult long-term problems.

 

Uh-oh! Gotta Stop! Gotta Stop!

 

Too Late.

 

< :speech: >

An example - Pandering politicians (tautology?) propose suspending sales taxes on motor fuels and halting purchases for the national petroleum reserve to help offset rising oil prices. They'll sacrifice the revenues needed to maintain transportation infrastructure that is already breaking down faster than it can be fixed, while suppressing fuel prices and promoting increased use, thereby accelerating resource depletion and advancing the date when shortages and staggering price increases will become inescapable. Instead of looking to the long term by investing in transportation alternatives, promoting responsible land-use policies and advocating discipline and restraint in fuel use, they seek popularity and reelection in the short term and increase the likelihood of collapse in our economic and food-supply systems and exacerbate the risk of global resource wars.

< / :speech: >

 

No, I'm not sorry about the rant. It's a bitter pill, but go ahead and swallow it. It might do y'all some good.

Yeah but Rob aren't you forgetting the prospect of renewable energy sources? I guess the problem is that it would be limited to a small fraction of the world population. Either way, a large portion of the world will  be screwed over eventually I think.

Obama had a great quote today about suspending the gas tax this summer. It went something like this: "This isn't about getting Americans through the summer. It's about getting two people through an election."

 

How's this for a debate point on the fate of civilization: When I hear of ideas like the gas tax holiday, I realize that humanity is probably too stupid to survive in an increasingly complex world.

Yeah but Rob aren't you forgetting the prospect of renewable energy sources? I guess the problem is that it would be limited to a small fraction of the world population. Either way, a large portion of the world will  be screwed over eventually I think.

 

I think we're quite a ways off from having renewable energy sources that will come anywhere close to replacing our consumption of oil or of coming anywhere close to the cost per btu that our economy has become dependent upon.

 

If there were any economic advantage to biofuels, we'd have seen the energy companies trying to get in on the ground floor ten years ago. That hasn't happened. If the oil companies want ethanol plants, I'd wager they can wait three or four years and buy all the bankrupt plants they want at thirty cents on the dollar.

 

People's memories are even shorter than their awareness is limited. Apparently not many people remember that just over ten years ago the entire northeast section of the country experienced drought that led to a complete failure of the corn crop over several states. There were no mature ears on any non-irrigated plants, and farmers tried to salvage what animal feed they could by harvesting the stover (stalks and leaves). Even that was a desperate measure; corn harvested for forage is cut when it's still somewhat green and full of moisture, with fully-developed ears and kernels. What they had was just a little bit better than nothing. I recall driving across Pennsylvania at Labor Day in 1995 and seeing nothing but brown, shriveled stalks and leaves.

 

Wind and solar won't work just anywhere, either. It takes study and testing to locate suitable sites for wind farms and solar panels, and money and time to construct them and bring them on line. Wind farms are dependent on climate patterns and wind speeds can vary widely in some areas making those areas unsuitable for power production. Solar panels shut down at night and produced diminished output on cloudy/overcast days, and storage systems have to be built and maintained to counter those characteristics.

 

It won't be easy and it won't be cheap to build renewable alternative energy sources, and we can't expect the same abundance of power at the cheap prices we're used to.

 

Obama had a great quote today about suspending the gas tax this summer. It went something like this: "This isn't about getting Americans through the summer. It's about getting two people through an election."

 

How's this for a debate point on the fate of civilization: When I hear of ideas like the gas tax holiday, I realize that humanity is probably too stupid to survive in an increasingly complex world.

 

Sometimes his logic and reasoning overwhelm the average voter that has become accustomed to nonsense politics.

Sometimes his logic and reasoning overwhelm the average voter that has become accustomed to nonsense politics.

 

Sad in its truth.

I guess I have to ask the question of what do we mean when we say 'collapse'? Are we talking about a complete deconstruction of our society, to the point where we've become a  complete anarchy (Mad Max?), or are we talking about something more subtle. And as far as 'society' is defined, are we talking just the US, Western Civilization, or Globally? Unfortunately, previous examples were locally defined, with less ability to communicate efficiently with other regions / communities / societies. It was also a lot easier for a society 1000 years ago to be gobbled up by another.

 

We can communicate across the world instantly, and share information, and we've become reliant on that. The information we know is available to everyone, so you wouldn't have a loss of knowledge that previous civilization declines brought. So, short of catastrophic/ cataclysmic events that instantly throw us back to the dark ages, what are we talking about here?

Sometimes his logic and reasoning overwhelm the average voter that has become accustomed to nonsense politics.

 

Sad in its truth.

 

Even better, Hillary's spin on Barack's stance goes something like "Maybe the [the infintessimally small and disasterously short-sighted trickle of individual financial relief] doesn't mean much to Senator Obama, but to the hard working prople of Indiana/North Carolina who drive trucks for a living and commute long distances every day, it means a lot."

 

Yes folks: the elitism card.

 

Back to topic.

 

I'm presently reading Jared Diamond's "Guns, Germs and Steel - The Fates of Human Societies" as a run up to "Collapse" (don't ruin the ending for me rob), and while the subject--what factors allow for stone age societies and space age societies to exist simultaneously, and how the latter can be so easily subjagated by the former--is a bit in the abstract insofar as this topic goes, but the big picture is that a society can only really go as far as its access to resources will allow. Ultimately it all comes down to calories.

 

The society who contols the calories wins. As the last hunter gatherer tribe disappears and makes the shift to high-yield agriculture and their numbers explode, and technology and global markets further tighten the mesh of interconnectivity, the number one priority for all of us residents of the planet earth will be to feed ourselves.

 

The global food crisis we're hearing about right now terrifies me to no end. So much of it is a result of opportunism and short-sightedness by the few: Monsanto's impossibly greedy "suicide seeds"; concerted ambivalence towards small plot farming for the sake of bolstering centralized factory farming, and on and on. 

 

In short, if we can't feed ourselves, all the technology and philosophy in the universe won't save us. And if we can't reallign our priorities and see the difference between, say, a $3.60 per week gas tax holiday windfall and the importance of drastically curtailing our consumption of resources and shifting over to renewable energy, then, well, in the words of the great thinker and military man, Private William Hudson:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xh0qD0aA2bY

 

I remember in High School, we had to read a fictional account of a community living after the nuclear holocaust.  Similarly, Kunstler has a new book (and movie?) about a community developing after the collapse of oil-based society.  Both see the time after collapse as somewhat utopian because people are forced back into small communities and self-sufficiency. 

 

I am begining to agree with the above article and with Kunstler that the energy problem cannot be solved with technology.  Of course we can do lots of things to harvest more energy, but as the above article points out, the extraction of energy keeps getting more and more expensive.  I think the current food price issue partially caused by politicians who want to subsidize ethanol is a good example of the non-solutions technology and politics offer the fuel scarcity issue.

"What? You people can't engage in deep philosophical conversations?? I think this stuff is fascinating."

 

Um, you post a thread about the demise of civilization the day before my birthday? Nice. REAL nice. Guess I should cancel my spa appointment!

 

That said, if it ever gets to Mad Max-dom, dibs on being the Queen of Bartertown:

 

Have a fabulous birthday, Mayday!

Who wishes MayDay a happy birthday?

Master Blaster wishes MayDay a happy birthday!

We don't need another hero. We have me (shown in my alter-ego persona below). Happy B-day queen. Didn't mean to ruin your celebration!

 

Kim Jong Il: Now you see, the changing of the worrd is inevitabre!

Lisa: I'm sorry, it's what?

Kim Jong Il: Inevit, inevitabre.

Lisa: One more time.

Kim Jong Il: [shouts] Inevitabre! Things are inevitabrey going to change! G*d*m*t, open your f**king ears!

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Kim Jong Il: Now you see, the new world is inevitable.

Lisa: It's what?

Kim Jong Il: Inevit - inevitable.

Lisa: One more time?

Kim Jong Il: Inevitable! Things are inevitably going to change! G*d*m*t, open your f**kin' ears!

 

sun's gonna blow up eventually, all life on planet earth will be scorched. We need to migrate to Mars in order to survive, as by then the rising temperatures from the sun will have enabled the proper conditions for life to thrive there, as it is too cold currently.