The announcement of the Moraine Assembly closure here led me to revisit some old charts based on County Business Patterns, esp. since they had added 2006 (CBP is always two years behind, but I like how they base their numbers on industry/sector and type of firm).

 

So I can see how the Dayton area economy is was faring as it came out of the 9-11 recession, but also working in the GM/Delphi cuts.

 

Here is manufacturing from 1998-2006, showing how it dropped, and also by the larger sectors.  Subsectors with less than 1,000 are rolled into an other or “misc” category.

 

I also showed a further cut based on some assumptions on Delco/GM job loss.

 

 

So one can see that “Transportation Equipment” (AKA vehicle assembly and parts production) decline from a big part of the manufacturing sector to something on par with the other larger subsectors (and this doesn’t factor in supplier declines assoc. with Moraine closure).

 

Looking at the other two bigger manufacturing sectors, one can see how they come out of the recession with less job, and the machinery subsector is on a low downward glide slope.  These are not growing subsectors as of 2006.

 

 

But manufacturing is just one part of the larger economy.  Here is the economic mix from 1998-2006 for Montgomery County

 

 

And what’s growing and what’s not;  increases and decreases in employment by sector.  Though manufacturing had the largest single drop, 53% of the overall drop is due to a combination of the other declinging sectors.  Growing sectors don’t offset this loss, resulting in a net loss of positions between 1998 and 2006.

 

 

Looking at the Dayton metro area (as currently defined), one can see Montgomery County is the big kahuna when it comes to being a job center, followed by Greene and Miami Counties.

 

 

For job growth in the metro area, Greene and Miami, and a little bit of Preble, added jobs for the period, but not enough to offset the big drops in Montgomery.  So the metro area as a whole had a net loss of positions from 1998-2006.

 

 

Butler-Warren Counties as an Employment Center.

 

The picture to the south of Dayton was much better.  The two counties between Dayton and Cincinnati are turning into quite a job center.

 

Here are the employment trends for both counties.

 

 

And approaching them as an aggregate, as one unit, since the are becoming intertwined due to growth along I-75.

 

 

And comparing their growth rates with Montgomery counties stagnant jobs picture. 

 

 

…given the same rates of growth and decline one can expect Butler/Warren to approach Montgomery County as a job center in the next 10 years. 

 

 

Economic mix in Butler/Warren by sector

 

 

….and by sector percentage:

 

 

Nearly every economic sector has grown between 1998 & 2006 except manufacturing.  The two top sectors are accommodation and food services (adding 7.1K positions) and finance, insurance, and real estate (adding 6.1K).

 

So things are looking good for the area south of Dayton.  Perhaps this would be an employment center for people out of work in Montgomery County?

 

 

Fantastic analysis.

Health Care Nation

Perhaps this would be an employment center for people out of work in Montgomery County?

 

Heck, downtown Cincy is an employment center for out-of-work Daytonians....

 

Last December I interviewed for a job in downtown Cincinnati.  The person interviewing me worked for the Cincy compnay.  He was previously laid off from a job in Dayton (about 6 months earlier).  He decided to keep his house in Dayton, and make the commute each day. 

 

(That was a 1.5 hour commute each way before the construction began on 1-75, and when gas was $2/gallon)

duplicate

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Believe it or not Hamilton county lost about 45,000 jobs 1998-2006, according to that database.  Since it doesnt go any deeper than (by geography) downtown Cincy could be adding private sector jobs while other parts of the county losing them.

 

@@@@

 

I guess what suprised me about Dayton was that the non-manufacturing job loss was so high.  Adding up the various economic sectors its actually higher than factory work losses.

 

And medical.  That category is Health and Social Services, so it pulls in day care and family services and stuff like that.  The biggest subsector, though, is hospitals.  That is where the jobs are in that category, for Montgomery County. 

 

 

Great where the jobs are is where we are payign the most. I was quoted $399 a month for health insurance. Im single, no kids and 39. Never smoked a day in my life.