This set of charts piggybacks on the ongoing Housing Downturn= Recession thread, which is turning out to be a great digest of ongoing economic news (kudos to the contributors on that thread).

 

These charts update a chart I posted a year or so ago.  This looks at single family home building permits reported by month and year, for Butler and Warren Counties, the two booming counties between Cincinnati and Dayton.

 

First, cumulative permits by year, for both counties.  One can see the 1990s boom, then the slide in the mid 2000s.  The interesting thing here is that the 9-11 Recession didn’t hit here…high volume of permits through the recession years.

 

 

Breaking out permits by county. One can see how Warren was seeing a lot of permit activity in the later years of the time series.

 

 

Taking a closer look at permits by month for the period of decline,but starting with a peak years, 2005.  The unusual feature, maybe, is a lot of volatility in Butler in a year that had a high volume of permits for that county, compared to Warren. 

 

 

 

The last few months, last year and a half, seem to indicate a bottoming out as monthly volume is bumping along between say 100 and 50 permits per month

 

Next, a quick look at monthly permits by year, for Warren County.  This was done  to see if there is an annual cycle for the volume of permits.

 

 

 

You see one for the early months of 2005 and 2006, but then the pattern collapses as permitting activity declines.  Still, there are peaks in March and May in all four years. 

 

Lets insert some trend lines.  Really not enough points for 2008, but it does seem the bottom has been reached and a slight upward trend, maybe.  2006 was the big drop, though.

 

 

 

An interesting question is how many of these permits have actually led to new construction?  I don’t know how the construction industry operates, whether a permit is issued when construction is imminent, or if builders hold permits for some length prior to construction.

 

Wow...this is some impressive data.  But as clear as these trends come across...the explanations for these trends are as equally complicated.  The economic times we are seeing today are a "perfect storm" so to speak of domestic and global events.  Something not seen before...what will happen I don't know, but areas that based their economic vitality on growth/consumption (most of America) are certainly not going to be in a good way once all of this mess sorts itself out.

 

The housing market embodies this problem.  We spent until we couldn't spend any more, then we leveraged our assets to buy more, then when that went dry lenders sold off our debt to foreign investors, those foreign investors are now feeling an economic pinch themselves and aren't all that eager to float the debt of Americans (they have their own domestic concerns).  Where does that leave us?  I think it puts the U.S. in a tough position...that for the first time we won't be able to buy ourselves out of.

What is the source of this data?

Buildng Permits

 

 

Great!

I think yr seeing the 1990s boom in some of this.  The era of "irrational exuberance".  This was associated with the "dot com bubble", but I think the economy was doing good in the 1990s beyond that, in areas without a big concentration of IT firms, as these numbers seem to indicate.

 

Also, most of the attention was on Warren County as the boom county.  The Butler County numbers look pretty high too..outpacing Warren in the early part of the 1990s and exceeding Warren at the end of the boom.

 

Here's a chart for building permits in Hamilton County over a longer time period, 1960 to 2000. Sorry for the poor scan.

Source: Hamilton County Regional Planning Commission.

 

Nice charts and great info. Clearly these places have not escaped the housing downturn.

 

To pick up on the Hamilton County chart.

 

2005 - 2,101

2006 - 1,823

2007 - 1,273

 

Permits were cut almost in half.

 

Cincy:

 

2005 - 616

2006 - 892

2007 - 458

 

Basically following the metro trend (50% reduction).

 

The good news is the number of RE units for sale in the metro is lower than this time last year (still very high, but better). If the metro can avoid major job loses through this recession the RE industry should comeback quicker than a lot of the US. Of course with the economy and the financial markets doing what they are doing there are a lot of 'IF' in that assumption.