I got this thread title from a book I read years ago.  For some reason my white trash suburban high school in suburban Louisville had this big economic and demographic research study on Eastern Kentucky, product of that 1960s interest in Appalachia.  Apparently the state hired some consultants from NY or DC or someplace to do this big study…

 

…and the conclusion was that Appalachia was “producing people for export” (and said the local politicians didn’t want to admit that).

 

So I thought it was a good title for a thread on the Dayton metro areas population decline, esp. considering that Appalachian connection here.  So, some very amateur demographics (something I know nothing about, so this is stone cold interpretation here…)

 

First off, the basic demographic data.  Population counts for the MSA by age group, more or less at five year intervals, for the 1990 and 2000 census (yes I know its old data by now).  I want to look at young adults, as this is a key demographic group for various reasons.

 

 

Then the concept.  What you just saw just compares counts within age groups.  X amount of folks in 20-24 year old category in 1990 Y amount in 2000. 

 

This doesn’t say what happened to those 20-24 year old folks in this category in 1990…if they stayed in town they would have aged 10 years, and moved into the 30-34 category in 2000.

 

So there is a model for change.  This recognizes there are going to be other things going on than simple aging.  But at this young age I think death is not that big an impact, so I am guessing drops mean mostly out migration, younger folks leaving town.

 

 

So, this is how it would look on that big graph.  Take one group, the 20-24 years in 1990.  They would shift to the 30-34 year olds category ten year later in 2000.  And there would be a net increase or decrease or it would stay mostly the same.

 

 

And there is a rough cut of what was happening, people moving from their teens into the young adult category, and leaving it for middle age in their 40s.  But note the decreases across the board as age groups shift ten years..

 

 

Some detail

 

 

 

 

And putting it together.  As one can see there is quite a bit of out migration for young adults, particularly for people moving into their 20s and early 30s.

 

 

…which indicates the metro area is producing people for export.

 

A look at the possible demographic implications.  If the prime childbearing years are young adulthood, fewer of these folks would mean fewer births and kids, assuming fertility rates remain the same.  And that does seem to be the case based on this chart

 

 

So you’d see a vicious cycle:  fewer young adults mean fewer births, means fewer kids to grow to be teenagers and then new young adults, and so forth.

 

Another implication is that if there is an aging population and a ongoing decrease in births due to lack of young adults, there would be a declining birth rate and increasing death rate.  For Montgomery County that seems to be the case, with deaths overtaking births around 2020, based on past trends.

 

 

So, long term, and absent large in-migration and increase in fertility rate, this area is going to see a demographic shift in about 15 years or so, when we past that birth rate/death rate singularity.

 

 

 

You have alot of charts. Are you getting paid for a company or anything for your efforts?

Jeffrey, great job, again. Your key point was a bit dissipated across several complex graphics, and it's dense reading. However, I persevered, and your central point is the subject line: The Dayton MSA is indeed producing "people for export" and deaths will outstrip births in 10 years or so (by your figuring).

 

I'll make another of my sweeping anecdotal statements not backed by numbers: Dayton is becoming "ghettoized", and this population leakage is a key reason. Those people who are leaving are the ones who have a choice - either educated professionals, or skilled tradespeople. The ones who stay in the area are the ones who are stuck who don't have the resources nor the vocational reason to move.  The overall quality of the human stock is declining, and the symptoms of this are the gutted out once-suburban fringe districts. The Dayton area creates a surface appearance of prosperity and progressivism by dumping wasteful new developments like The Greene and the new Austin Rd development area a suitable distance out from the unfashionably old inner areas.

 

Demographically, this is horrible. Centerville and Miami Twp will be the Kettering or Page Manor of 2020, no doubt.

 

    Thanks again for a job well done.

 

    I may not have been able to present it as well, but I have been trying to spread the word on this theme on this board for years.

 

    I consider myself an optimist. But I also consider myself a realist. I just got chided in another thread for saying something about a declining city.

 

  Folks, the demographic data projections show a very different future than what we like to imagine. Jeffrey has been focusing on Dayton, but most of Ohio shows the same trend.

 

  According to the U.S. Census, Ohio as a whole is projected to peak in population in 2018 and then decline for the forseeable future. If you don't believe it, you can look it up. Ohio is projected to be the 4th state to peak.

 

    There are four components to population change. They are births, deaths, immigration, and emigration.

 

    In Ohio, our birth rate is low and dropping; our death rate is low and rising; emigration and immigration are both relatively small, with most of the movement staying within state boundaries, but the net effect is emigration.

 

    The last two centuries have been characterized by population growth, with the most growth in raw numbers occuring in the 1950's, 60's, and 70's. We are coming to a turning point, and are leveling out; the next 30 years are likely to be characterized by decline in population.

 

    What else can I say? Please don't hate me.

Id like to see if the 1980 census has population data that I can arrange by age cohort by county.  Then you could really track a generation.  This is fascinating stuff, as it looks at history in terms of generation or life span.  Sort of a very long view.  I guess in a way I was thinking about that thread on how ones earnings will be determined if you graduate in a recession or not, that this impacts ones wages across a lifetime.

 

Sort of the same long-view here, what happens to the a generation.  Kids in the 1980s, or 1970s, where are they now?  Or what happened to their age group through time, as economic evolution worked its changes on a local or regional economy.

 

The deal with losing this young adult age group.  This is when people are starting families, buying houses or renting places, etc, so are a market for consumer goods.  Clothes for the kids, furniture, appliances, etc.  And if they are single, a market for nightlife? 

 

And I'm curious if there is a viscious cycle of low numbers of young adults begetting low birth rates, aside from people just having smaller families.

 

@@@@

 

Are you getting paid for a company or anything for your efforts?

 

Hah, no, im not qualified to do this, dont know statistics or economics, just my own hunches here.

 

I'm just curious if I am totally off the wall on this or not. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Those people who are leaving are the ones who have a choice - either educated professionals, or skilled tradespeople. The ones who stay in the area are the ones who are stuck who don't have the resources nor the vocational reason to move.

 

Or people who have "connections"  to get what good jobs are available, or are exceptionally talented yet want to stay in the region.  So you have an elite and the great unwashed,

 

@@@@@

 

We are coming to a turning point, and are leveling out; the next 30 years are likely to be characterized by decline in population

 

I think the Europeans are already there.  This was one of the points of that "Shrinking Cities" exhibit last year that I saw up in Detroit.

 

 

 

 

 

 

    ^-- You are not totally off the wall. You have done some very impressive work.

 

   

Good stuff as always. The big key to that switch is to watch when all the folks who seem to be staying in town want to be teachers (or nurses). Western NY is already there.

 

The irony of course is that Dayton is turning into a Kentucky-esque metro area with those rising above leaving with each passing generation. I've always wondered how things never get better in eastern ky and then you realize that each generation loses its bets and brightest - often just to Lexington but also to Cincy/Columbus and elsewhere.

 

I agree Dayton is in rough shape, but I'll add that Wright-Pat at least gives the area a base-line below which it can't fall - unlike say Youngstown or most of the eastern Ohio Valley towns.

If you can, pick up the Shrinking Cities atlas - it rocks!

The problem is not exporting people, per se. It is running a "trade deficit" whereby leavers outweight joiners.  Most of the Midwest doesn't have an outflow problem, it has an inflow problem.

^---- In our first century, we had both a high birth rate AND a steady stream of foreign immigration.

 

  The birth rate has stabilised to near replacement rate, and the foreign immigration has nearly stopped.

 

 

^^ I can agree with that.  America has historically had people on the move.  I'm sure there's a ton of people leaving Chicago every year however they are easily replaced.  Dayton needs to address the issue of what it can do attract people.  Also, I think its also common for young people in rural areas to move into their closest big city.  A lot of that isn't happening for Dayton maybe they're going to Columbus instead now.

Sort of the same long-view here, what happens to the a generation.  Kids in the 1980s, or 1970s, where are they now?  Or what happened to their age group through time, as economic evolution worked its changes on a local or regional economy.

 

I am one of those kids of the 70s, and AFAIK, *all* college educable kids in my Aerosmith and Bachman-Turner-Overdrive worshipping cohort  :-D flew the Dayton coop. One guy I know is a salesman in Columbus, which seems to attract the opportunity-minded regionally. The ones who remain are either stupid like me, deeply blue-collar in culture and too xenophobic to move, or (like the comment about about Western NY becoming an educational haven) are in teaching or in nursing.

 

I agree Dayton is in rough shape, but I'll add that Wright-Pat at least gives the area a base-line below which it can't fall - unlike say Youngstown or most of the eastern Ohio Valley towns.

 

As I ranted in a recent thread, WPAFB increases the net size of the Dayton area simply by being here, and probably has fostered a non value added service economy that supports the people who are based there are work there, but it's truly a sort of enclave. Most job skills and credentials in the commercial sector are not readily transferable in or out of the base.

 

IE: the base doesn't keep East Dayton or Old North Dayton from getting nastier over time. And those areas are adjacent to the base.

Also, I think its also common for young people in rural areas to move into their closest big city.  A lot of that isn't happening for Dayton maybe they're going to Columbus instead now.

 

Sort of off topic, but yes this was the case historically for Dayton.  Most of the in-migration to Dayton came from the rural region around the city, particularly to the north.  People left the farms for city work.  Now they can just drive in, if they have a job.  Or if they leave it will be to a different city, like Columbus.

 

@@@

 

I am one of those kids of the 70s, and AFAIK, *all* college educable kids in my Aerosmith and Bachman-Turner-Overdrive worshipping cohort flew the Dayton coop.

 

One notices this at the DDN message boards, that there seems to be a fair number from out-of-town posting there.

 

 

 

^---"People left farms for city work."

 

    In our first century, farm families had about 10 kids. When industrialization came along, farms provided a population base to migrate to the city.

 

    The family farm has all but disappeared in Ohio. Farms are no longer a big source of migrants to cities.

Fantastic!