A 40% shooter does not always shoot 40%. Its only an average. He must have higher than 40% nights to make up for those nights below 40%, and he will, if his average is truly 40%.

 

In the long run, everything averages out, may or may not happen in the next game, but the laws of probability say it might.

That's fine, I appreciate the tutorial on probabilities. But with this specific player, u can look at his history and make a wishful assumption, which I did...naturally he did what I had hoped in game 2, going 3/5...two nights after going 0/3.  He's a guy that, based on his career history, suggests that if he goes 0/__, the next game he will shoot at a high percentage

 

It's pure coincidence every time it does play out the way you believe it should, and you can make the same type of "prediction" for every other player that has ever played in the league. It's more likely that given if he takes five shots that he's going to hit two or less. The key idea here is that what happens in one game has absolutely no affect on what happens in the next game. Either you believe that general premise or you don't, but I will say this: All of the research on statistics and probability supports that premise.

 

 

Just for fun:

 

James Jones is a career 41% shooter. Here are the percentage chances that in any game where he takes five shots that he'll hit a given number:

 

0/5 - 7.2%

1/5 - 24.8%

2/5 - 34.5%

3/5 - 24.0%

4/5 - 8.3%

5/5 - 1.2%

 

Assuming that you agree that all of these possibilities are completely independent of his previous game's results, if you predicted that when he takes five shots the game after going 0-for that he'd hit at least three of those shots, you'd have about a 34% of being correct. But there'd also be about a two-thirds chance that he's going to hit two or less shots in that subsequent game.

The "Law of Averages" is basically a fancy term for the "Gambler's Fallacy." It's essentially the same thing and wrong for the same reasons.

 

Outcomes don't "even out" in the short-run. However with a large enough sample size, overall percentages approach the expected likelihood. What's already happened has happened and has no bearing on future outcomes. James Jones going 0-for-5 in a game doesn't make it any more likely that he'll go 5-for-5 in some subsequent game. It's most likely that he'll have many, many, many more 2-for-5 games in the future (with quite a few 1-for-5 and 3-for-5 games as well), leading to his OVERALL shooting percentage coming very close to his expected shooting percentage.

The "Law of Averages" is basically a fancy term for the "Gambler's Fallacy." It's essentially the same thing and wrong for the same reasons.

 

Outcomes don't "even out" in the short-run. However with a large enough sample size, overall percentages approach the expected likelihood. What's already happened has happened and has no bearing on future outcomes. James Jones going 0-for-5 in a game doesn't make it any more likely that he'll go 5-for-5 in some subsequent game. It's most likely that he'll have many, many, many more 2-for-5 games in the future (with quite a few 1-for-5 and 3-for-5 games as well), leading to his OVERALL shooting percentage coming very close to his expected shooting percentage.

 

Sorry, you are wrong.  If his average is truly 40% based on a representative number, than it will remain 40%.  That will mean that at sometime, he will make up for the low numbers.  If he doesn't, then he will no longer have a 40% average which as you believe is truly possible.  It is not as random as flipping a coin.  There is no skill involved in flipping coins, as there is no skill involved in playing red or black.  Based on a small sample size, that is truly luck.

Per Espn:

Optimistic Hawk Bazemore to start for Korver

 

Just wanted to say I think "Optimistic Hawk" is among the best tribal names ever.

 

p.s. All this math....Nerd Alert!!!

 

 

What is everyone's opinion on whether to play or rest Kyrie for the rest of the series?

I would rest him.. At least for this game. Only bc he was off for 5 days and still couldn't play well the first game of the series. He's definitely in a lot of pain, and the Hawks are beat up as well. I'd rest him this game and see what the outcome is. If we win, I'd keep him out til the Finals. If we lose, I'd consider putting him in for game 4

^ I agree with all of that

5 to go

Yeah, but at this rate, we're going to be playing without LeBron, Irving, and Love in the finals.  Atlanta is practically just as depleted (particularly with Horford's ejection), but LeBron is gimpy at the moment and Kyrie still probably won't be 100% in Game 4 if they play him at all.

Okay, so I'm checking out some national opinion on the whole "Delly is Satan" controversy. My unofficial result: majority of commentators thinks Horford indeed pulled him down by the arm (to me this is obvious from the front view, but not from the view tnt kept replaying) and that Reggie Miller is an imbecile.

 

Even Bulls fans are sticking up for him, if that's any indication. 

 

Favorite comment from a Bulls fan.....HORFORD IS JUSTIFIED IN RETAIATING. WHAT NOBODY REALIZES IS THAT DELLY MURDERED KORVER'S FAMILY WITH A BOOMERANG.

 

 

 

I don't see what all the fuss is about.  Things are bound to get broken when you put a bull in a china shop

Last night's game, as fun as it may have been, made something very clear to me: The Cavaliers are going to be in deep trouble against Golden State.

Is Delly's all hustle style of play  dangerous to other players? Probably at times. Is he a dirty player? I just don't see it. He just keeps his feet moving until the whistle. When hustle is at the top of your skill set, you've got to use it. Holford pulled Delly. into him, about the only thing that could be construed as dirty would be the second push off after making contact with Caroll, and that looks he was trying stay between the ball and Holford. Much ado about nothing if you ask me.

 

 

 

 

 

This Delly debate is taking on a life of its own. One take I agree with is that Delly isn't dirty but he does play intentionally reckless and that's ok. Another is that if the Hawks are whining about players diving on the ground thence r that explains why they are down 3-0

 

^^anyone would be in trouble against GS.

This Delly debate is taking on a life of its own. One take I agree with is that Delly isn't dirty but he does play intentionally reckless and that's ok. Another is that if the Hawks are whining about players diving on the ground thence r that explains why they are down 3-0

 

^^anyone would be in trouble against GS.

 

I actually believe they can figure out golden state. We have the smartest mind in the sport of basketball. I do not see any blowouts taking place.

 

I mean a month and a half ago, the Hawks were golden state east. Moved the ball incredibly, scoring, balanced. Granted they peaked in March and have lost confidence, we have completely beaten them down and disrupted them this series. If the Cavs can disrupt the warriors (who, by the way, have no experience at that level), I think they can make GS doubt themselves

This Delly thing is fun. My brother and I are involved in an epic text string with my cousin, who is an ATL transplant, but has season tickets to the hawks with a bunch of his neighbors. As he calls himself, a die-hard Hawks fan of 14 weeks.

 

I was at the Tribe game Friday so I missed Delly hurting Korver. I finally watched it online this morning. It doesn't look like he was aiming for his knee. Korver looked like he was going to dive for the ball too. Instead he pulled up at the last second instead of diving. It's possible the Delly would have done more damage if he had  continue straight instead of rolling to make contact with his back. He was expecting body on body contact and was protecting the ball.

^^anyone would be in trouble against GS.

 

True, but Houston fans have titles. Atlanta fans have titles. Chicago fans have titles. We don't. From my point of view this postseason is a pointless exercise unless the Cavs win a title, which they're not going to do because they're going to run into a juggernaut in the next round.

 

I don't really remember much about the 2007 run because it ended up in a Finals loss. I won't remember much about LeBron's heroics, or Delly's gamesmanship, or Tristan's grit from this year unless this ends in a title.

I am still trying to forget Drew Gooden's hair.

 

http://www.sikids.com/photos/323/nbas-worst-hair-cuts/4

 

 

Sorry, you are wrong.  If his average is truly 40% based on a representative number, than it will remain 40%.  That will mean that at sometime, he will make up for the low numbers.  If he doesn't, then he will no longer have a 40% average which as you believe is truly possible.  It is not as random as flipping a coin.  There is no skill involved in flipping coins, as there is no skill involved in playing red or black.  Based on a small sample size, that is truly luck.

 

You're right that there is a difference between theoretical (coin-flipping) and experimental (shooting percentages) probability. However you're wrong if you believe that in either case subsequent outcomes must "even out" at any point based on previous events. This is about regressing towards the mean over a truly large sample size, it's about approaching the expected probability, not about hitting it exactly.

 

Even with coin-flipping where we definitively know what to expect, if you flipped a coin 1000 times and got heads 550 times, you can't expect to get less heads (like around 450) if you flipped it another 1000 times. You'd expect to get about 500 heads. And if you flipped it another 1000 times, and another, and another, you'd expect to get about 500 for each set of 1000 flips. And as you add these up as the sample size gets larger and larger, your overall experimental probability will approach 50-50 (though obviously not hitting it exactly), despite that initial set being so unexpectedly out-of-whack, and despite not necessarily having any set that favors tails in the exact extreme the other way. The same goes for basketball players and shooting percentages. If James Jones is a 40% shooter based on prior history, he could have 10 (unlikely) games in a row where he shot 0-for-5, followed by 154 games of shooting nothing but 2-for-5, and his overall shooting percentage is still approaching his expected shooting percentage without having any games where things "even out" for him in the other extreme. This is called the law of large numbers.

 

I've seen better visuals than this, but it will do. I hope it works:

 

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/49/Lawoflargenumbersanimation2.gif

^^^put down that white flag, my friend

 

But on the point of making memories, I definitely still remember the run to the 2007 Finals. Shoot Boobie Shoot!  LBJ scoring the last 24 in game 5. That battle with the Wizards in the semis. Etc

Just a screenshot from last nights broadcast. I am trying to picture this with the Hilton and nuCLEus. Hope we can get more buildings to light up for the (knock on wood) next round.

Just a screenshot from last nights broadcast. I am trying to picture this with the Hilton and nuCLEus. Hope we can get more buildings to light up for the (knock on wood) next round.

 

Didn't know they could do that with the crown of BP.  Nice addition.

 

Terminal seems dimmer.  The other two have halogen lights or something?

^^ The far right side of that photo make my eyes burn! lol

LeBron is averaging a triple double in the ECF

^ He cashes this one in...he is the GOAT.  ( I already think he is...he does things Jordan, Bill and Wilt could never do...however I cant say the same about those guys doing things Lebron cant do)

The game is just too different to compare between generations.

The cast of Entourage is supposed to be at tonight's game.

Is it just me or does there feel to be considerably less excitement about entering the Finals this year as opposed to 2007? Perhaps it's because that was our first time and it was something that was almost expected this year? I was looking at a picture of the crowd at Gateway Plaza from game 6 against the Pistons in '07, and I don't feel that same vibe this time. But maybe I'm wrong and I'm the odd one out.

Detroit fans travel to Cleveland, so you had half of Detroit in town, too.  That'll add to the excitement.  Also, the protests are definitely dampening the atmosphere during this series.  I work at a Downtown bar and can tell you our business was WAY down last week.

Is it just me or does there feel to be considerably less excitement about entering the Finals this year as opposed to 2007? Perhaps it's because that was our first time and it was something that was almost expected this year? I was looking at a picture of the crowd at Gateway Plaza from game 6 against the Pistons in '07, and I don't feel that same vibe this time. But maybe I'm wrong and I'm the odd one out.

 

I'd agree with that. We couldn't get past Detroit in prior seasons, so defeating them in the 2007 ECF was a big deal. And getting to the ECF for the first time is always special.

Just a screenshot from last nights broadcast. I am trying to picture this with the Hilton and nuCLEus. Hope we can get more buildings to light up for the (knock on wood) next round.

 

Sorry to see the fmr Ameritech building in blackout mode.

I remember partying at Coventry, then West 6 that night. The vibe of the city was off the charts. The Cavs were at XO after the game too, which was pretty neat.

Four more...

[

Wow and based on the excitement on this site you would think the St. Ignatius badminton team made it through to the semifinals. Good Lord there is more energy about this win and the Cavs in California ???

I liked this one a lot more than that cheesy disco song that preceded it:

 

Wow and based on the excitement on this site you would think the St. Ignatius badminton team made it through to the semifinals. Good Lord there is more energy about this win and the Cavs in California ???

 

The fact that it just wasn't a good series dampens the excitement a bit for me.  Most of the games just weren't that fun to watch.  The Cavs also never felt challenged in this series.  A sweep just isn't as exciting as a game 6 or 7 win.

Wow and based on the excitement on this site you would think the St. Ignatius badminton team made it through to the semifinals. Good Lord there is more energy about this win and the Cavs in California ???

 

The fact that it just wasn't a good series dampens the excitement a bit for me.  Most of the games just weren't that fun to watch.  The Cavs also never felt challenged in this series.  A sweep just isn't as exciting as a game 6 or 7 win.

 

I'll take it though...the rest is going to be good.  I heard tickets were relatively easy to come by yesterday--everyone is saving their money for the massive prices of the finals!

[

 

I'll be Facebooking that one if they actually win their series.  A friend in Houston posted that it's coming my way and good luck.  I asked if she meant the storms, or the Warriors.  :)

Wow and based on the excitement on this site you would think the St. Ignatius badminton team made it through to the semifinals. Good Lord there is more energy about this win and the Cavs in California ???

 

This site doesn't really represent the Cleveland sports scene all that well.  People were/are excited for sure.  But it is true that it is a lot different than in '07 when we overcame the odds to come back from 2-0 and beat the hated Pistons to make it to our first ever Finals.  I think most people expected us to beat the Hawks..... although I don't think anyone thought it would be that easy.

 

I knew the Hawks were toast last night when Delly came in and hit that 3 and then Teague shoved him on the way down the court.  When Delly is in your head, you have problems.

Good time for a family selfie....

 

How dare people not post at 1 in the morning!!!!

Game 1 against the Warriors will be very telling.  I think the Cavs can only win if they can drag the game into the mud and turn it into an ugly series.  Their offense is too limited to outshoot Golden State.

Game 1 against the Warriors will be very telling.  I think the Cavs can only win if they can drag the game into the mud and turn it into an ugly series.  Their offense is too limited to outshoot Golden State.

 

Does ANYONE think Houston has a shot to pull off the miracle?  I actually think they could....

^ Nope.

I'd be very surprised

With Dwight Howard of yesteryear, I'd say yes they could come back. Otherwise Golden State seems to be peaking at just the right time.

Game 1 against the Warriors will be very telling.  I think the Cavs can only win if they can drag the game into the mud and turn it into an ugly series.  Their offense is too limited to outshoot Golden State.

 

I'm not so sure about that.  If Kyrie is anywhere close to full-go, our offense is anything but limited.  I think the team has actually proven to be quite versatile on that end of the floor.  We can score inside, we can score outside, we can score in transition, we can create our own shots, we can swing the ball.  Keep in mind that LeBron has not been at his best from an efficiency standpoint and Kyrie has not been Kyrie, yet we have cruised to the Finals.  Our defense has been solid, but our offense is not getting the credit it deserves.

 

Two things I perceive everyone is overlooking in a Cavs-Warriors series are (1) how good the Cavs offense is and (2) how good the Warriors defense is.

Wow and based on the excitement on this site you would think the St. Ignatius badminton team made it through to the semifinals. Good Lord there is more energy about this win and the Cavs in California ???

 

I don't post many sports comments on this site. I keep them for many sports forums. Getting to the NBA Finals or the World Series doesn't do it for me anymore (if the Browns merely got to the Super Bowl it would cross a different, new and huge emotional threshold for me). Don't get me wrong, I recorded last night's game and watched it again. And I've watched all the postgame stuff. But the Cavs have to win it all to really get me stoked. This is why I was excited to get LeBron back. It wasn't to get to the Finals. It was to win it.