That's an academic exercise I believe. The current rules explicitly prohibit that by limiting how many times a county can be divided. Many counties cannot be divided at all.

Yes. That is why i would be surprised if the Democrats lost a seat in Ohio at the end of the day. I suppose if a poor Democratic candidate ran in the Ytown area and a solid Republican did it could easily happen.  That might be the play is to run Amy Acton for Ryan’s seat.  

   There are going to be a lot less weird shapes because of the new rules. So Marcy Kaptur won’t have 90% of Democrats in her district reaching over to Cuyahoga county from Toledo, her base. 

17 hours ago, KJP said:

With Ohio losing another seat, this is an option....

 

 

This map is hilarious but violates the redistricting rules will prohibit it.

 

Honestly, dems may GAIN under the new rules, in spite of Ohio losing a seat. Cities with 100k-750k people have to fall within a single district assuming the county in which they sit has a population higher than the number of people in a congressional district, which means Cleveland and Cincinnati cannot be split. The redistricters also only get a total of 28 county splits (18 counties may be split once, and 5 twice). Three of these splits mathematically have to be in Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Hamilton. 

 

Given Cincinnati has to be contained within one district, it's gonna be really hard to draw a district down there that won't be blue. After that, Cuyahoga County is almost certainly going to result in two blue districts and Franklin in one. Then Akron and Toledo become a problem because there's only so many county splits you can make, and so you really can't slice and dice up those metros as much as we do under the current map. So it's not impossible that one of those two cities results in another blue district. That would give you five blue districts.

I am not convinced that the rules will stop the GOP from gerrymandering some. I would be surprised if the Democrats picked up a Congressional seat in 2022. But we'll have to see what map we have in the end. There are still tricks to be pulled, and the restrictions aren't ironclad.

 

I still think the minority party should draw the districts in every single state and have restrictions on geography they have to follow.

I am setting the over/under at a 12-3 map.  Any takers?

3 hours ago, DarkandStormy said:

I am setting the over/under at a 12-3 map.  Any takers?

11-4.

 

I believe this would go to the Supreme Court of Ohio because this map could only be passed with the simple majority option. If that is the case, I believe Democrats could easily make the case this map is in violation of this requirement.

 

(3) If the general assembly passes a congressional district plan under division (C)(1) of this section by a simple majority of the members of each house of the general assembly, and not by the vote described in division (C)(2) of this section, all of the following shall apply:

(a) The general assembly shall not pass a plan that unduly favors or disfavors a political party or its incumbents.

 

https://www.legislature.ohio.gov/laws/ohio-constitution/section?const=19.01

 

^^If that map would actually be permissible then maybe I’m being too optimistic. Although I will say that 2nd district would be quite competitive, so you could still have 12-3.

 

^ Came here to post the same thing. In case anyone is unaware, Triantafilou is the Hamilton County GOP Chairman. Gerrymandering is no longer something done in secret behind the scenes. He's unapologetically pro-gerrymandering right out in public.

We once went to war with our government over this taxation without representation thang and got ourselves a newer, more localized version....

 

 

The commission also stated that they will not make the deadline to release their map.

 

Will we see the new redistricting maps tomorrow? Meetings at 10 and 2, rumors of maps. 

 

 

 

 

The initial analytics makes it look like the GOP will have the opportunity to maintain their supermajorities in both chambers
 

 

 

 

23 hours ago, Dev said:

 

 

The Supreme Court has held that anything < 10% can be acceptable, so while 9.5% may seem high it really isn't that far out of the norm for state legislative districts, particularly when there are complex requirements in place limiting where borders can be drawn.

31 minutes ago, Ram23 said:

 

The Supreme Court has held that anything < 10% can be acceptable, so while 9.5% may seem high it really isn't that far out of the norm for state legislative districts, particularly when there are complex requirements in place limiting where borders can be drawn.

I know about the Supreme Court ruling but it's still a red flag

The elephant in the room here is the Voting Rights Act.   While it does not explicitly require majority-minority districts, it definitely encourages them and makes it difficult to eliminate them without the active consent of the minority political leadership in them.   Which is unlikely to be forthcoming, and to be honest should not be.

 

As long as black voters go 90%+ for the Democrats, it’s difficult to imagine such a district being less than 70% Democratic, and it will probably be higher.

 

Keep in mind that the predecessor of the 11th Congressional District wasn’t created because of the VRA.  It was the result of a deal between the Stokes brothers and the state GOP, brokered by William O. Walker.

Sooo after last night's last second vote - any thoughts on how things will shake out? The rationale I've seen online has been shaky at best.

 

Seems like we've gone backwards despite the referendum.

Not sure if there are legal grounds to sue based on certain violations of the referendum--i.e. failing to keep municipalities within a single district. 

 

The referendum was an improvement in the process in theory but the 4 year map is a huge loophole that allows the party in power to retain their power almost indefinitely. Given that the benefits of redistricting tend to fade over time, having to redraw the map every 4 years may even benefit Republicans more as they show no willingness abandon their anti-majoritarian tendencies. 

 

An easy way around all of this would be to get rid of all districts and have a proportional system. This wouldn't necessarily favor one party over another, though it would give that appearance in Ohio where republicans have stacked the deck in their favor at all levels and so would likely start losing elections. Ultimately, this comes down to a weakness of their policies and they recognize it. 

 

http://avganalyst.blogspot.com/2020/09/a-proportional-response-creating.html

49 minutes ago, GISguy said:

Sooo after last night's last second vote - any thoughts on how things will shake out? The rationale I've seen online has been shaky at best.

 

Seems like we've gone backwards despite the referendum.

Even DeWine basically said what they did wasn't wholly constitutional, so now it's up to his son (or more likely Maureen O'Connor) to join the OH Supreme Court Dems in striking it down. 

the only way we get a better map IMO is if the court draws a map. Sending it back to the commission is a waste of everyone's time, as seen by what they did the first time around.

2 hours ago, GISguy said:

Sooo after last night's last second vote - any thoughts on how things will shake out? The rationale I've seen online has been shaky at best.

 

Seems like we've gone backwards despite the referendum.

 

Either move our Yankee lands out of Ohio or we Democratic move out of Ohio.

55 minutes ago, KJP said:

 

Either move our Yankee lands out of Ohio or we Democratic move out of Ohio.

👀👀

 

https://twitter.com/isreserve/status/1438568102304919568

Edited September 16, 20213 yr by GISguy

Alexa, what does the arrival of authoritarianism look like?

 

 

Not strictly redistricting or specifically Ohio, but some interesting analysis over House and Senate retirements (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-all-those-house-retirements-mean-for-democrats-so-far/) and what the shifts in population could mean for redistricting (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/where-america-lost-and-gained-population-could-throw-democrats-a-redistricting-lifeline/).

 

I'm also keeping an eye here (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/) for when FiveThirtyEight updates Ohio's map, though I'm not expecting many surprises. 

ACLU taking the state house and Senate maps to court.

 

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2021/09/aclu-of-ohio-voter-rights-groups-sue-ohio-over-new-state-legislative-maps.html

6 hours ago, Luke_S said:

ACLU taking the state house and Senate maps to court.

 

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2021/09/aclu-of-ohio-voter-rights-groups-sue-ohio-over-new-state-legislative-maps.html

Amen.  I will send a donation tonight! 

I will donate as well.

On 9/16/2021 at 2:39 PM, KJP said:

 

Either move our Yankee lands out of Ohio or we Democratic move out of Ohio.

 

If you add together all the counties in the old Connecticut Western Reserve, plus the Canton metro area, Biden won it by only 2 points. Hillary won it by 4. So it's, unfortunately, moving right. 

If you group the Cincinnati, Dayton, Springfield, and Columbus metro areas, Trump won by 4 points in 2016. It was tied in 2020. Moving left. 

 

But both groupings are pretty close to 50/50 D vs. R. It's really the remaining counties in the Northwest and Southeast that sink us. Northwest Ohio went for Trump by 27 points in 2016 and by 29 points in 2020. Southeast Ohio went for Trump by 40 points in 2016 and by 44 points in 2020.

538 has updated with the State Senate Democratic Caucus plan, which almost certainly won't be accepted, but still interesting to look at. 

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/ohio/senate_democratic_caucus/

1 hour ago, Luke_S said:

538 has updated with the State Senate Democratic Caucus plan, which almost certainly won't be accepted, but still interesting to look at. 

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/ohio/senate_democratic_caucus/

 

It's worlds better than the current map, which is exactly why it has zero chance of actually being accepted. 

35 minutes ago, DEPACincy said:

 

It's worlds better than the current map, which is exactly why it has zero chance of actually being accepted. 

Right, it actually somewhat aligns to the party split of Ohio. 

ideastream: Ohio Legislature Misses Deadline For New Congressional Map.

https://www.ideastream.org/news/ohio-legislature-misses-deadline-for-new-congressional-map

 

The Ohio Redistricting Commission is going back to work, this time drawing a new Congressional district map after state lawmakers failed to agree on one before the constitutional deadline.

 

The state legislature was required to create a new Congressional district map by the end of September. Now that they've missed the deadline, it's the Ohio Redistricting Commission's turn to draw the lines.

On 5/13/2021 at 1:26 PM, LlamaLawyer said:

^^If that map would actually be permissible then maybe I’m being too optimistic. Although I will say that 2nd district would be quite competitive, so you could still have 12-3.

 

Barring some catastrophe, I don't see that district being all that competitive.   2022 is not going to be a good year for moderate Democrats in swing areas.   Some may even lose to the turbas of the type that seem to be goading Senator Sinema into putting the GOP back in charge of the Senate (she can do this without even changing parties).   Those that don't will have to spend money fending off those types of challenges.

The spirit of W. O. Walker will prevail in the cities.  The deal he brokered put Lou Stokes and his succesors into Congress, not the VRA.

But the VRA will likely be used against any attempt to dilute minority majorites.

 

The Statehouse News Bureau: Voter rights groups say Ohio Redistricting Commission must get to work.

 

https://www.statenews.org/government-politics/2021-10-19/voter-rights-groups-say-ohio-redistricting-commission-must-get-to-work

 

And there's this too...

 

ideastream: Justice DeWine won't recuse himself in case involving his father.

 

https://www.ideastream.org/news/justice-dewine-wont-recuse-himself-in-case-involving-his-father

Gov. Mike DeWine, other statewide GOP redistricting commission members admit they had ‘no involvement’ in creating new maps

 

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2021/10/gov-mike-dewine-other-statewide-gop-redistricting-commission-members-admit-they-had-no-involvement-in-creating-new-maps.html

 

The contempt for this process shown by Cupp and Huffman is infuriating, but not surprising.

 

On 10/23/2021 at 10:28 AM, Luke_S said:

Gov. Mike DeWine, other statewide GOP redistricting commission members admit they had ‘no involvement’ in creating new maps

 

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2021/10/gov-mike-dewine-other-statewide-gop-redistricting-commission-members-admit-they-had-no-involvement-in-creating-new-maps.html

 

The contempt for this process shown by Cupp and Huffman is infuriating, but not surprising.

 

The contempt for this process shown by DeWine, LaRose, and Faber is right up there -- very lame to say that they had "no involvement" when the law required them to be involved and they voted for the plan independently created by a couple of GOP legislators.  Like a cop turning a blind eye to a crime, saying "I didn't see it" doesn't clear you -- this is a clear dereliction of duty on the part of elected officials. 

My brother and sister-in-law decided to go with the scariest Halloween costume they could think of:

 

This is amazing^

Thinking about this, I hope the people behind the previous ballot issue get a new, more punitive/aggressive one on the ballot. It will get the signatures and will likely pass.

 

Say it's 4 republicans & 4 democrats on the commission. The map needs to pass with unanimous consent or they lose their jobs. Like, not just the job on the commission, but their entire job. 

Why has this taken over 6 years after the vote BTW?

1 hour ago, GCrites80s said:

Why has this taken over 6 years after the vote BTW?

 

Because redistricting only happens every ten years. 

 

2 hours ago, mu2010 said:

Thinking about this, I hope the people behind the previous ballot issue get a new, more punitive/aggressive one on the ballot. It will get the signatures and will likely pass.

 

Say it's 4 republicans & 4 democrats on the commission. The map needs to pass with unanimous consent or they lose their jobs. Like, not just the job on the commission, but their entire job. 

The original ballot initiative called for an independent commission. In Ohio, the judicial branch is supposed to “consider” citizen initiatives. If the legislature passes a similar law, the citizen committee collecting ballots can, and often does, withdraw. The league of women voters, who was the main group behind both the state and later federal redistricting initiatives, reluctantly withdrew their petition once the Ohio house passed the law, which did not have the independent commissioning, but otherwise was similar to the citizen initiative. I’m sure they are now extremely regretting this decision, but it is very common for ballot initiatives to be “resolved” like this. (A similar thing happened with the Cleveland ballot initiative to not fund the Q arena renovation.)

I would fully support a new ballot initiative establishing an independent redistricting commission, and I would want it to force an immediate redistricting effort for the very next election. The voters REALLY got screwed by the clowns responsible for the new maps. 

1 hour ago, Boomerang_Brian said:

 

Because redistricting only happens every ten years. 

 

The original ballot initiative called for an independent commission. In Ohio, the judicial branch is supposed to “consider” citizen initiatives. If the legislature passes a similar law, the citizen committee collecting ballots can, and often does, withdraw. The league of women voters, who was the main group behind both the state and later federal redistricting initiatives, reluctantly withdrew their petition once the Ohio house passed the law, which did not have the independent commissioning, but otherwise was similar to the citizen initiative. I’m sure they are now extremely regretting this decision, but it is very common for ballot initiatives to be “resolved” like this. (A similar thing happened with the Cleveland ballot initiative to not fund the Q arena renovation.)

I would fully support a new ballot initiative establishing an independent redistricting commission, and I would want it to force an immediate redistricting effort for the very next election. The voters REALLY got screwed by the clowns responsible for the new maps. 

 

Yeah, it's definitely something that could pass even with Ohio's R tilt, and even the presence of a group collecting more signatures to keep making this a public issue could continue putting pressure on the Ohio Republican Party that this problem is not going away.