October 1, 20204 yr 1 hour ago, Brutus_buckeye said: Certainly, bootstrapping is a simplistic term, but the beautiful thing about it is that it encompasses a ton of activities that people can do to raise their lot in life. Many often do not require much investment, many have low startup costs, and if people are willing to be creative and invest in themselves (regardless of going to college) they can achieve some level of success and independence in their lives. Jake does a good job of laying out numerous ways that work for him, but his roadmap does not have to be specific to everyone. Protip: The "bootstrappting" brand is terrible among people who aren't rich or have empathy for people who aren't rich. "Hustle" is better, but still reminds us that the job situation in this country isn't good.
October 1, 20204 yr 2 hours ago, Brutus_buckeye said: For me, I would never make a dime on a music gig The bartenders make way more money than the musicians pretty much everywhere. It takes 5-10 years to get good at playing, thousands of dollars of lessons, thousands of dollars of equipment, and a working car to get you to practice and the the performances (and possibly a large car if you play drums or upright bass). Meanwhile a bartender can learn their job in two weeks, own no special equipment, and make money every night without having to practice for two hours earlier in the day. Like 15 years ago when it was still a local show in Nashville (and I lived there) I remember Dave Ramsey going on a rant about people trying to make side money as wedding DJs, wedding photographers, etc. He was like just deliver pizzas. You already own the two pieces of equipment you need - a car and a cell phone - and you can start making money today.
October 1, 20204 yr The problem with pizza delivery is the same as with ridesharing. You think you're making money, but mostly you're just burning an asset up.
October 1, 20204 yr That's why it's a lot better to start with a car that's already pretty much junk BUT runs every day. Back in the '90s cars like that were all over the place for $200 but now they are $1500+. You'd scrap the $200 car for $50 when it was used up. Pizza guys used to be best friends with my buddy's dad's junkyard as their cars ground down. Starters for example are not designed to be used more than a few times in one hour. I often wonder how much less the delivery drivers make at a place where the pizza place owns the car. There's one like that near me and of course it used to be that Pizza Huts had those Chevy Luv trucks that had the little Pizza Hut roof on them. Tony Hawk drove one in Gleaming the Cube:
October 1, 20204 yr 29 minutes ago, X said: The problem with pizza delivery is the same as with ridesharing. You think you're making money, but mostly you're just burning an asset up. That's not accurate at all. If you deliver in a dense delivery area you really don't put many miles on the car as compared to rideshare. I've done both and I drove triple the mileage doing rideshare. I was often putting over 200 miles on the car doing an 8~ hour stint for Uber versus about 60 delivering pizzas in a fairly dense delivery area. Also, the weight of human beings is hundreds of pounds greater than a few pizzas and 2-liters, so you're burning more gas and putting more stress on the brakes and suspension. Pizza delivery guys are usually paid minimum wage + a per delivery fee + tips, which is a much more stable situation than Uber. Cars have gotten a lot more reliable in the last 10-15 years abut at the same time pizza places moved to POS systems that automatically deduct credit card tips. The place I worked at changed POS systems around 2012 and instantly the take-home was lower because all credit card tips were reported. The percentage of people paying with cards continues to increase and is now well over half. This means the average pizza guy is going home from his typical night with at least $10 less in his pocket. If you work 150 nights a year that's roughly $1,500 less take-home. That's a lot less beer and pot, since almost none of these guys deposit their cash.
October 1, 20204 yr According to this article, the average car on the road today is 11 years old. In 1995 the average car was 8.5 years old. https://www.consumerreports.org/car-repair-maintenance/make-your-car-last-200-000-miles/ What I recall about being a kid in the 1980s was that almost zero cars from the 1960s were still on the road, other than in parades, and the 1970s cars were dropping like flies.
October 1, 20204 yr If you had a '70s car in the '80s it meant that you were too poor to come up with the money to get that 7MPG monkey off your back and get a 40MPG four-cylinder. You'd see cars that were 5 years old getting run over by monster trucks and in demolition derbies since the old boats were totally worthless. OR it meant that you made so much money that you didn't care that gas went from 50 cents a gallon to $1.50 in a year. Edited October 1, 20204 yr by GCrites80s
October 1, 20204 yr 16 minutes ago, jmecklenborg said: According to this article, the average car on the road today is 11 years old. In 1995 the average car was 8.5 years old. https://www.consumerreports.org/car-repair-maintenance/make-your-car-last-200-000-miles/ What I recall about being a kid in the 1980s was that almost zero cars from the 1960s were still on the road, other than in parades, and the 1970s cars were dropping like flies. Don't worry, with the next generation of cars, they'll build in some planned obsolescence and get that number closer to 6-8 years. Dealerships are going to fold left and right if that avg age creeps up much more.
October 1, 20204 yr 9 minutes ago, 10albersa said: Don't worry, with the next generation of cars, they'll build in some planned obsolescence and get that number closer to 6-8 years. Dealerships are going to fold left and right if that avg age creeps up much more. None of those things are going to happen. What's going to be a much bigger deal is when 25 years from now new-Uber/new-Lyft has a fleet of 50 million level 4 self driving cars and the only people who need to own a car at all live in rural areas.
October 1, 20204 yr 27 minutes ago, 10albersa said: Don't worry, with the next generation of cars, they'll build in some planned obsolescence and get that number closer to 6-8 years. Dealerships are going to fold left and right if that avg age creeps up much more. They do that now; it's called creating some silly fad. Unfortunately for them not everyone participates.
October 1, 20204 yr 4 hours ago, GCrites80s said: Protip: The "bootstrappting" brand is terrible among people who aren't rich or have empathy for people who aren't rich. "Hustle" is better, but still reminds us that the job situation in this country isn't good. I am sure if "Hustle" replaces "bootstrapping" it will also start to receive a negative connotation from various groups.
October 1, 20204 yr 5 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said: I am sure if "Hustle" replaces "bootstrapping" it will also start to receive a negative connotation from various groups. "Hustle" insinuates that there was some sort of cleverness involved. Just go bartend or deliver pizzas.
October 1, 20204 yr 2 hours ago, jmecklenborg said: "Hustle" insinuates that there was some sort of cleverness involved. Just go bartend or deliver pizzas. I'll pass this along to some of the 50,000 aviation industry workers losing their jobs today. I'm sure a captain of a 777 would love a good hustle.
October 1, 20204 yr 4 minutes ago, Cleburger said: I'll pass this along to some of the 50,000 aviation industry workers losing their jobs today. I'm sure a captain of a 777 would love a good hustle. Yeah what I went to college for doesn't exist anymore. Nobody threw a pity party for me.
October 1, 20204 yr 6 minutes ago, jmecklenborg said: Yeah what I went to college for doesn't exist anymore. Nobody threw a pity party for me. What's interesting about the aviation massacre is like a lot of other GOP talking points, they only care about the military when they are signing defense appropriation bills. Many of the professionals who fly and maintain our civilian aviation fleet are all ex military. You would think the GOP would at LEAST offer them a pity party...
October 1, 20204 yr Lots of poor people hustle like crazy. The implication that poor people are lazy is just a bad argument. I've been "poor" and that is when I worked harder than I do now.
October 6, 20204 yr I've posted a few of these monthly updates since COVID and the CARES Act hit (and I unfortunately know the full articles are all paywalled, but the headline captures the gist of it), but the weirdest year in my years as bankruptcy attorney just keeps getting weirder: https://www.abi.org/newsroom/press-releases/september-commercial-chapter-11-filings-up-78-percent-over-last-year-total September Commercial Chapter 11 Filings Up 78 Percent over Last Year; Total Filings Decrease 35 Percent Commercial chapter 11 filings totaled 747 in September, a 78 percent increase over September 2019’s total of 420 filings, according to data provided by Epiq. However, overall September 2020 business filings were 2,677, a decrease of 16 percent compared to the 3,190 business filings in September 2019. Total U.S. filings registered 39,701 in September 2020, down 35 percent from last September’s total of 61,156. The 37,024 consumer filings in September represented a 36 percent decrease from the September 2019 consumer total of 57,966. ========================================== We keep thinking "the wave" is just over the horizon, but we've been thinking that for a couple of months now and so far, things have stayed quiet.
October 6, 20204 yr What do you think is responsible for the gulf between the increase in Ch. 11 and decrease in total filings?
October 6, 20204 yr Several different reasons, some of which might actually be different in terms of the ultimate result for the businesses but all of which push in favor of a chapter 11 filing. Chapter 11 offers a lot of tools for selling a distressed business. Equity and asset prices are high and a decade of easy money policy (and more being pumped in as pandemic stimulus) means there are a surprising number of well-capitalized buyers out there. On the flip side, failed old buyouts can also land in bankruptcy, and a few years ago, the hangover from the Great Recession really started to fade and banks started to get a little greedy with their lending again. Nothing like 2005-2007, of course, before Bear Stearns and AIG and Lehman, but still a little bit more risk was going to mean a few more corporate filings even if there had been no pandemic. And finally, the shakeout of sectors that were both uniquely vulnerable to the pandemic and vulnerable to competitive pressures before the pandemic. Brick and mortar retail, oil & gas, hospitality, and travel were probably the biggest four: https://fortune.com/2020/06/29/companies-filing-bankruptcy-2020-during-coronavirus-pandemic-covid-19-economy-industries/ https://www.retaildive.com/news/the-running-list-of-2020-retail-bankruptcies/571159/ The big deal with those is that many of them couldn't treat the pandemic like a one-time, temporary stress that they could weather and reach sunny times again. The pandemic simply accelerated negative trends they were facing for a long time beforehand. JC Penney, Lord & Taylor, Pier 1 ... they might have made it through 2020 without the pandemic, but there was no way they were making it to 2025 without some major restructuring (if at all), either in bankruptcy court or outside it. Note that there is overlap in these categories. One I'm following for personal reasons (I have no professional involvement in the case) is Lucky Brand (https://www.retaildive.com/news/apparel-sellers-lucky-brand-and-g-star-raw-file-for-bankruptcy/581041/), because they're actually my favorite denim brand. Their plan was to arrange a buyout through the bankruptcy court, and in fact they apparently went in with a stalking horse bidder already lined up. I'm following that one as best I can because there have been other instances of good IP getting bought out by different vendors who just slap the quality label on new, cheap merchandise that has essentially nothing in common with the old stuff that built the brand. I'm hoping to not see that happen with Lucky.
October 6, 20204 yr So these big companies that couldn't get PPP money (or only got it on their first 500 employees) are filing these Ch. 11s while the smaller companies are floating on PPP, EIDL and other state and local loans but may face the Slayer in 2021 or 2022. I actually was planning on closing or selling my business sometime in 2020 (the decision was made back in 2018), but the virus and PPP forced me to stay open.
October 13, 20204 yr Along with the PPP expiring, there is a storm looming in evictions and foreclosures.
October 13, 20204 yr ^Landlords need to be able to boot problem tenants. I have no doubt that some tenants are taking advantage of the situation. They're ruining it for the good tenants who are having health problems or who can't work for some other reason. It's going to be interesting to see how many e-retailers fail to deliver Christmas packages on time this year because they simply can't staff their warehouses since so many people are loafing at home thanks to huge unemployment payouts. The other big issue is that there is going to be a huge amount of pressure on packaging materials for shipping. My workplace brought in truckloads of bubble mailers last week and has truckloads more on order in order to gouge people in December.
October 30, 20204 yr Trumpkins are touting the GDP growth, while ignoring the record breaking decline last quarter. Even fox recognizes this: US economic growth shatters record at 33.1%, but fails to snap coronavirus recession President Trump has made restoring a once-vibrant economy from its coronavirus downturn a centerpiece of his reelection bid "But the headline figure obscures the full picture: The economy contracted at an annual revised rate of 31.4% in the previous quarter, the sharpest decline in modern American history. Looking at the quarterly data, the nation's GDP grew 7.4% from the second to the third quarter, compared with a 9% decline between the first and second quarters. The economy remains 3.5% smaller than at the end of 2019." https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-economy-grew-by-record-shattering-xx-pace-last-quarter
October 30, 20204 yr On 10/12/2020 at 10:41 PM, jmecklenborg said: ^Landlords need to be able to boot problem tenants. I have no doubt that some tenants are taking advantage of the situation. They're ruining it for the good tenants who are having health problems or who can't work for some other reason. It's going to be interesting to see how many e-retailers fail to deliver Christmas packages on time this year because they simply can't staff their warehouses since so many people are loafing at home thanks to huge unemployment payouts. The other big issue is that there is going to be a huge amount of pressure on packaging materials for shipping. My workplace brought in truckloads of bubble mailers last week and has truckloads more on order in order to gouge people in December. As far as I know the last oversize unemployment payout in Ohio was September, where people got $300 a week. In August there was no additional unemployment money. Also pretty sure they did not extend the length of time you can be on unemployment beyond six months. The minimum $600 a week has been over since August 1. Also keep in mind that if someone didn't average more than $169 a week in 2019, they got no unemployment this year. Also if they had too many gaps in 2019 they didn't get it either. Only 2 of 6 of my employees from last year qualified for unemployment. I had to fill out paperwork acknowledging such. Edited October 30, 20204 yr by GCrites80s
October 30, 20204 yr On 10/6/2020 at 3:41 PM, GCrites80s said: So these big companies that couldn't get PPP money (or only got it on their first 500 employees) are filing these Ch. 11s while the smaller companies are floating on PPP, EIDL and other state and local loans but may face the Slayer in 2021 or 2022. I actually was planning on closing or selling my business sometime in 2020 (the decision was made back in 2018), but the virus and PPP forced me to stay open. Seems entirely possible re: the larger businesses. Another sector just got a red flag via Bloomberg Law (not sure if this is paywalled, actually, I may have a persistent login at my office): https://www.bloomberglaw.com/document/XN86RAO000000 Hospital Bankruptcy Surge Looms as Virus Rages, Stimulus Lapses Hospitals and other health-care providers are bracing for a bankruptcy wave as the government stimulus aid that gave a lifeline to the industry dries up. ... Healthcare sectors have been in upheaval for years as reimbursement rates have fallen, the cost of care has increased, and rural populations have declined. Polsinelli’s quarterly “distress index” that tracks health-care bankruptcy filings has exceeded a 2010 benchmark in every quarter since the latter half of 2015. The firm’s most recent report shows that distress in the industry is more than five times what it was in 2010 when Polsinelli began tracking ... ========================================= Midsize healthcare providers have been a somewhat steady source of work for the bankruptcy and restructuring practice groups of major Ohio law firms--large enough to produce a significant amount of work, valuable enough to be worth paying Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati rates, but not so enormous that they'll necessarily end up using the behemoth firms based in NY, DC, Chicago, and the West Coast.
October 30, 20204 yr OhioHealth has bought up a lot of hospitals in counties surrounding Franklin in the past few years.
November 11, 20204 yr Well here's some suggested lunacy: Deutsche Bank Research: Tax home workers 'to help those who cannot' - BBC News https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54876526 That would be as foolish as the government paying remote workers for lessening pollution by avoiding commute travel.
November 12, 20204 yr 3 hours ago, TBideon said: Well here's some suggested lunacy: Deutsche Bank Research: Tax home workers 'to help those who cannot' - BBC News https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54876526 That would be as foolish as the government paying remote workers for lessening pollution by avoiding commute travel. Probably not as far fetched as you may think. If someone can think it, they can figure out a way to tax it. May seem crazy now but in the next 10 years, I bet we see a push for this type of lunacy. it will be caged in the typical terms of fairness, and equality, and they may even mention that it will help the children and other platitudes. The only people who wilil be really helped by it are real estate developers specializing in office development.
November 12, 20204 yr Here's news that I think will not be particularly surprising for many on this site who were aware of the overbuilt brick-and-mortar retail environment that existed in this country even before the pandemic. If anything, I'm a little surprised at how slow this wave has been to pick up, and how little it has actually picked up so far. The information that "REITs have more conservative debt levels than many retailers" was actually news to me, and might have something to do with it. That said, I don't think I'm likely to pick up any REITs in my investing portfolio in the near future (especially in the commercial retail space). I still think there's too much upheaval on the horizon even I've been wrong so far in the sense that, back in March, I'd have predicted worse and sooner. https://www.abi.org/newsroom/bankruptcy-headlines/malls-file-for-bankruptcy-or-shut-their-doors-as-pandemic-pain-spreads Malls File for Bankruptcy or Shut Their Doors as Pandemic Pain Spreads Mall landlords are starting to seek bankruptcy protection or shutting down, the latest signs that the pandemic is deepening a crisis that began before COVID-19, The Wall Street Journal reported. CBL & Associates Properties Inc. and Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust said last week they were filing for chapter 11 protection after their earlier debt-restructuring efforts failed. Both companies said they have secured support from a majority of their respective bondholders entering the bankruptcy process and hope to emerge from it as soon as possible. While retailers like Neiman Marcus Group Inc., Brooks Brothers and J.C. Penney Co. have filed for bankruptcy in recent months, it’s rare for real estate investment trusts that own malls or shopping centers to do so because REITs have more conservative debt levels than many retailers. They also have multiyear leases across a wide variety of tenants. Still, analysts said the mall-owner bankruptcy filings weren’t a surprise. Mall closings are also picking up, too. Shares of mall owners and other real estate companies rallied on Monday, after a COVID-19 vaccine proved 90 percent effective in trials. Simon Property Group Inc.’s stock price rose 28 percent, as investors bet that easing public health fears would bring more people out to the malls. But analysts say even if the pandemic comes under control, the glut of department stores and other retail tenants struggling with lower sales will continue to haunt the mall industry.
February 21, 20214 yr Blue-Collar Jobs Boom as Covid-19 Boosts Housing, E-Commerce Demand America’s blue-collar workforce is filled with signs of a strengthening job market. Nationally, employment in residential construction, package delivery and warehousing now exceeds pre-pandemic levels. https://www.wsj.com/articles/blue-collar-jobs-boom-as-covid-19-boosts-housing-e-commerce-demand-11613903402
March 12, 20214 yr Whoa! GOLDMAN SACHS: Quarterly real GDP forecast for 2021 (annualized): Q1 5.5% Q2 11.0% Q3 8.5% Q4 6.0% "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
March 12, 20214 yr Was just reading a CNN article about it - alot of economists are predicting around 7% or higher growth for this year with the passage of Biden's stimulus, and the vaccine rollout. This is the first time in decades that the US will be growing at a Chinese level growth rate, and the first time since China took off in the middle of the last century that the US may beat the Chinese growth rate (expected around 6%). Quite the feat for a developed economy, considering we are both bouncing back from the pandemic.
March 13, 20214 yr Found it... After Biden stimulus, US economic growth could rival China's for the first time in decades https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/12/economy/stimulus-economy-biden-china/index.html "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
March 13, 20214 yr 20 hours ago, PoshSteve said: Was just reading a CNN article about it - alot of economists are predicting around 7% or higher growth for this year with the passage of Biden's stimulus, and the vaccine rollout. This is the first time in decades that the US will be growing at a Chinese level growth rate, and the first time since China took off in the middle of the last century that the US may beat the Chinese growth rate (expected around 6%). Quite the feat for a developed economy, considering we are both bouncing back from the pandemic. But all I hear conservatives blathering on about is that gas is now $2.48 a gallon at Costco.....
April 1, 20214 yr "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
April 1, 20214 yr Right-Wing media keeps crowing that cities are "bleeding people" when in reality it's just people aren't moving to them as much during the pandemic since a lot of situations where people move to the city such as taking a new job, going away to school, to enjoy the cultural amenities-- aren't happening during the virus. You can look at your phone, stream Netflix, work part-time service jobs, go to online school, play video games and all that anywhere.
April 2, 20214 yr "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
April 2, 20214 yr 22 hours ago, GCrites80s said: Right-Wing media keeps crowing that cities are "bleeding people" when in reality it's just people aren't moving to them as much during the pandemic since a lot of situations where people move to the city such as taking a new job, going away to school, to enjoy the cultural amenities-- aren't happening during the virus. You can look at your phone, stream Netflix, work part-time service jobs, go to online school, play video games and all that anywhere. Hard to say. Houses are selling very quickly at the current time, but also crime seems to have become more widespread, at least in the inner suburbs. The neighbors that are selling seem to be moving farther out. In my neck of the woods (shaker) the new buyers seem to be either young couples with young kids moving from places like Detroit shoreway, or new CCF employees moving from outside the area. I know with the recent realization that neither me or my partner will be going back to an office, we will likely look at moving farther out at some point. Edited April 2, 20214 yr by willyboy
April 9, 20214 yr "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
April 10, 20214 yr I read another article on the subject a few weeks back, and it maintained that this time around we don't have both the end of a pandemic AND the end of WWI. That will temper things as compared to the 1920s.
June 28, 20213 yr A thread starting with...... "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
June 28, 20213 yr 8 hours ago, X said: Sounds pretty pretentious. While still remaining very accurate.
June 28, 20213 yr At least some of the money spent at Walmart's stays in the community. Unlike sending all your money to Seattle and Silicon Valley where it artificially inflates the value of Zelda statues and leads to people spending $50 on $8 worth of Taco Bell delivery.
June 29, 20213 yr It's not a labor shortage. It's a wage shortage. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
June 29, 20213 yr On 4/9/2021 at 8:40 PM, GCrites80s said: I read another article on the subject a few weeks back, and it maintained that this time around we don't have both the end of a pandemic AND the end of WWI. That will temper things as compared to the 1920s. Not to mention the farm crisis, second rise of the KKK, Palmer Raids, and race riots, bubble economy...I'll pass on a '20s redux.
June 29, 20213 yr 48 minutes ago, KJP said: It's not a labor shortage. It's a wage shortage. Its a labor shortage. The available labor is not willing to work for the iniital wage because they have other options. When the economy is in the tank, there is no such thing as a wage shortage. Funny how the market works better than govenrment.
June 29, 20213 yr 45 minutes ago, westerninterloper said: Not to mention the farm crisis, second rise of the KKK, Palmer Raids, and race riots, bubble economy...I'll pass on a '20s redux. Tennessee Elephant Hanging, smashing old locomotives together for entertainment (with spectator injuries and deaths), West Virginia coal mine riots, Prohibition starting, crooked President Harding -- the late 1910s/early '20s were nuts!
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