And about analysts, I find market analysts, specifically portfolio managers, to be a joke of a profession (a six figure joke of a profession). Yes, the world needs financial advisers, simply because people don't know what to do with their money for their unique financial goals. But after reading Malkiel's Random Walk, there's no reason to believe that portfolio managers, driven purely by market returns, will ever outsmart the well-oiled market.

 

I read that book while in in grad school at UC for Finance. The gist of it really was that most analysts are mediocre at best, an insight that our professors reiterated on an almost daily basis -- interesting considering that was what most of us were looking to do for a living.

 

Don't feel bad.  That's true of many professions.  Doctors and lawyers, lots of others.  That's why both sides in a trial get to bring in an economist.  Economists disagree.  Therefore, they can't all be right.  The material in any kind of grad school is complicated and cutting edge.  It's acknowledged that we're making it up as we go along through history.  That's why mass buy-in to one seemingly perfect idea can be a bad sign.  That doesn't mean nothing is ever true or knowable.  It just means slow down and consider that despite how great things are going, the detractors may have a point.  That failed to occur, with the world economy just now.  It's not like nobody was against these practices that got us here.  The problem is that nobody listened at all.

http://www.slate.com/id/2216238/

 

The link throws you to a map that shows the job situation over the last 2+ years.

This goes to the status of commercial real estate - specifically that which houses retail

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090416/bs_nm/us_generalgrowth_bankrupcty

 

General Growth files for bankruptcy protection

By Ilaina Jonas and Emily Chasan Ilaina Jonas And Emily Chasan 1 hr 35 mins ago

NEW YORK (Reuters) – General Growth Properties Inc, the second largest U.S. mall owner, filed for bankruptcy protection on Thursday in one of the biggest real estate failures in U.S. history.

 

Ending months of speculation, the Chicago-based mall owner, which listed total assets of $29.56 billion and total debts of $27.29 billion, sought Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection from creditors along with 158 of its more than 200 U.S. malls, while it seeks to restructure some of its debt.

 

 

The case is In re: General Growth Properties Inc, U.S. Bankruptcy Court, Southern District of New York, No. 09-11977.

 

(Reporting by Ilaina Jonas, Emily Chasan and Sinead Cruise in London; editing by Elaine Hardcastle and Lisa Von Ahn)

 

 

"General Growth" is seeking bankruptcy?  That's like Freedom Fries.  I'm going to name my failed company "Your Childrens' Future."  What is wrong with these people?

^ Hahaha, I think they were trying to get fund managers and individual investors to say, "Oooh, growth. I like growth."

^ Hahaha, I think they were trying to get fund managers and individual investors to say, "Oooh, growth. I like growth."

 

don't forget, the growth is general, so your risk is diversified.

The case is In re: General Growth Properties Inc, U.S. Bankruptcy Court, Southern District of New York

 

The Southern District court of NY is a very Bankruptcy-friendly court.  I once worked 4 years for a company in BK in that court (I was a contractor.. I refused to be hired multiple times).  Anyway, that court let the company stay in BK for 5 + years, paid the trustee huge salaries, let the company buy some nice toys and throw a wonderful Christmas party, and all.  The company finally liquidated after better than 5 years being run by that court.

 

I'd say General Growth has a good possibility of staying in BK for a LOOONG time.

There will be no bottom to this recession until unemployment stops going up. There is a nice map showing all the states in this article.

 

Oregon and Michigan push past 12% jobless

Unemployment rises in 46 states and D.C.; Michigan leads nation at 12.6%, while Oregon shoots to second worst at 12.1%.

 

"NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The government on Friday released another sobering report on the jobs crisis, with the unemployment rate rising in 46 states and Washington, D.C., and pushing past 12% in Michigan and Oregon.

 

Michigan led the list with a jobless rate of 12.6 in March, up from 12% the prior month.

 

But the most dramatic increase was in Oregon, which went from 10.7% to 12.1% - the second-highest among the states.

 

Oregon was followed by South Carolina, at 11.4% in March, and California, at 11.2%."

http://money.cnn.com/2009/04/17/news/economy/unemployment/index.htm

Look at all those "popular" states and cities.  I've said it before.  Those "new" cities that were growing at the end of the 90s are going to hurt the most.  Vegas, Miami, Charlotte, ATL, Raleigh, San Deigo, Phoenix, those Sunbelt cities don't look so hot now!

 

Texas, has shown some resilience outside unemployment.

I can't find a good map, but what is interesting is that it isn't the urban core in a lot of those states that are in such bad shape, it is the rural and exurban areas. This is especially true of the Carolinas, Oregon, and Georgia.

^ I can picture streetcar opponents saying, "Look! Oregon's in the crapper even though there's a streetcar!" Many rural parts of Washington and Oregon have been doing poorly economically as the timber industry and sawmills decline. Aberdeen, Washington, a town of about 15,000 (which was home to a disproportionate number of famous people including Nirvana, Metal Church, The Melvins, John Elway, a guy from the Doobie Brothers and Peter Norton of Norton Antivirus) has been melting down for many years.

One area, the educational and health services sector, added nearly 38,000 jobs, a 2.2 percent yearly increase, EDD said.

 

 

LOL - those are government jobs.  Might as well be on the government payroll.  They should be counted as such.

 

So, without including the 32,000 additional government jobs, the employment picture would be even worse?

 

I wasn't sure where else to post this.  I think this is very sad.

 

http://www.cleveland.com/nation/index.ssf/2009/04/acting_chief_of_mortgage_giant.html

 

WASHINGTON — David Kellermann, the acting chief financial officer of money-losing mortgage giant Freddie Mac was found dead at his home Wednesday morning in what police said was an apparent suicide...(more at the link)

Financial issues is a leading cause of suicide.  It's really sad.

And personal issues are bad enough, but with the country's financial issues pressing on you, who knows what kind of hate mail this guy got that drove him to this.  Just terrible.

And personal issues are bad enough, but with the country's financial issues pressing on you, who knows what kind of hate mail this guy got that drove him to this.  Just terrible.

 

I know.  I wonder if he was in therapy?  I hate to hear about anyone committing suicide.

 

off topic disclaimer:  In the office yesterday we were discussing a story about an 11 year old boy in Atlanta who committed suicide because he was perceived gay.  Yes, 11!

I really hope this guy's desperate act alerts the HR departments at these companies that they should be offering some kind of counseling to deal with the stress on the job.

Suicide has been more common among European executives than US types. It does caution us against demonizing individuals in the process as ascertaining blame.

Except for Bernie Madoff.

I haven't found an actual forclosure thread so I thought this might do. Feel free to move.

 

Cincinnati has fewest foreclosures in Ohio

Business Courier of Cincinnati

 

While residential foreclosures in Ohio remain high, Cincinnati has the fewest of any urban area in the state for the first quarter, according to a report from RealtyTrac Inc.

 

Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac, which compiles and sells foreclosure data, reported Wednesday that the Cincinnati metro area had one foreclosure for every 198 homes, ranking it 76th among more than 200 cities.

 

Among Ohio metro areas, according to RealtyTrac: Canton-Massillon was 44th on the list (one of every 118 homes in some stage of foreclosure); Toledo, 46th, one of every 124; Columbus, 49th, one of every 127; Cleveland, 55th, one of every 134; Dayton, 64th, one of every 166; and Akron, 72nd, one of every 187.

 

...

 

http://cincinnati.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/stories/2009/04/20/daily40.html

Help wanted ads for pizza drivers and stripper/janitors??!?

 

Folks - get back on topic. C-Dawg... think before you post.

Wasnt sure where to put this, if it needs to be moved to another thread go right ahead.

 

In Atlanta, Irrational Building Exuberance

 

BY ALEX FRANGOS

APRIL 22, 2009

 

ATLANTA -- A one-mile stretch of Atlanta's upscale Buckhead neighborhood shows why commercial real estate is emerging as an obstacle to pulling the U.S. economy out of recession.

 

More at online.wsj.com:

 

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124035854512141263.html

No ones to blame for that but Atlanta itsself. They have been overbuilding for years now. You should read some of the comments in that story.

No ones to blame for that but Atlanta itsself. They have been overbuilding for years now. You should read some of the comments in that story.

 

Um Hello.  We've actually abandoned one of the buildings mentioned.  For the outside, IMO it appears that those buildings are less occupied than reported. 

 

We're reporposing space in our buildings there.  Nobody wants to rent there.  I've said it before ... over rated.

Back on topic.  The Cleveland Fed's Beige Book from April 15.  Dont know if this has been posted. It looks like this will be the "summer of our dicontent" in terms of the recession trough.

 

Beige Book

 

Execerpts for the goods producing sector:

 

Construction

 

The residential construction industry remains very weak; however, builders are less pessimistic than earlier in the year. Contractors believe that low interest rates and tax credits for first-time buyers may contribute to a broader sales uptick in the coming months. Nonetheless, an industry turnaround will not occur until consumer confidence improves significantly and excess inventory is pared down. Two contacts noted that they are waiting for federal stimulus money to begin construction of low-income housing. Little change in list prices of new homes was noted, though some builders are discounting, especially for older spec houses. We continue to see some downward pressure on building material prices, particularly for lumber. General contractors reported that they are now operating with skeleton crews.

 

Reports on commercial and industrial construction activity were mixed. A couple of builders said that their business is down due in part to intense bidding competition. Others characterized business as good and said they are slowly adding to their backlogs. Market segments cited as showing some stability were education, healthcare, and public works. Although obtaining project financing remains a big concern industrywide, most respondents are guardedly optimistic in their outlook for the remainder of 2009. Construction material prices continue to decline, while subcontractors are readily available at very competitive rates. We did not hear any reports of layoffs.

 

Manufacturing

 

Reports from District factories were mixed. Manufacturers of products used in industrial applications said that they continue to see a downward trajectory in orders. In contrast, there was a slight pickup in orders for products oriented toward the consumer market. However, several respondents noted that any increased production could be attributed to seasonal adjustments or the exit of market competitors. On a year-over-year basis, factory output fell by about 24 percent on average. Manufacturers expect demand will remain very soft during the next few months. Almost all steel producers and service centers reported a worse-than-expected slump in shipping volume. The only end markets cited as showing some stability were agricultural equipment and defense-related firms. Most survey respondents believe that the demand for steel will stabilize at current low levels through the second quarter. District auto production showed a significant rise during February on a month-over-month basis. The upturn is attributable to the restart of auto assembly plants after an extended year-end shutdown. On a year-over-year basis, both domestic makers and foreign nameplates experienced a precipitous drop in production, part of which is due to the permanent closing of a plant that produced SUVs (that would be the Moraine plant here in Dayton)

 

Almost all of our contacts reported that their capital budgets are frozen or have been trimmed back significantly. Little change in spending is expected in the upcoming months. Manufacturers participating in credit markets noted that they experienced little or no difficulty in obtaining financing for long-term or short-term uses. (which indicates the credit crunch is more on the RE side)Since our last report, raw material prices and product pricing have remained stable or declined, with metals accounting for most of the decline. Little inflationary pressure is expected during 2009. Almost all of our survey respondents continue to lay off employees or increase the number of nonproduction days. Predictably, wage pressures are contained.

 

 

The GM announcement that they are shutting down for 9 weeks is not good news. The Ohio budget just took a knee to the groin.

 

If we see any inflation in the near term that could make everything very complicated going forward.

The inflation isnt going to come from wages, based on the Fed report.  Probably from gas & oil, which I see is going up again.

 

Gas and oil - and possibly general hyper-inflation if the dollar ever crashes or the feds lose buyers for our debt . . .

 

Inflation in the things we buy everyday to maintain our lifestyle, and deflation in revenue producing activities (jobs, investments, assets), does not bode well for the country's future.

This hurts! A lot! :x :x   I would have sold, David, C-dawg, Cincinnatius, Andrew as a package deal to buy a house on Strivers row.

 

The irony, as prices fall, the cost of a home is still out of reach for many people. My assistant and his fiance have been looking at homes near me. Even with prices falling they still cannot afford to live anywhere lower than 140 street.

 

---

Manhattan is No. 1 in plunging home prices  

 

Prices on 39 percent of homes for sale are cut, by average of $300,000 The stately four-bedroom, 1893 town house in West Harlem hit the market six months ago with a $2.7 million asking price that drew little interest.

 

It’s still on the market, listed at $2.095 million. Homeowners in Manhattan, once thought near bulletproof to the downturns that battered real estate in other cities, have slashed sale prices more than anywhere in the country, according to real estate Web site Trulia.com.

 

...

 

Reuters contributed to this report.

 

http://www.metro.us/us/article/2009/04/24/06/3347-82/index.xml

re General Growth and Fallen Timbers: (toledo)

 

it's just Northtowne 2.0, or Woodville 2.0.  Unnecessary mall built in an area on the fringe that never built up. There's no surprise why Franklin Park is Toledo's mall.

 

One aspect that might deter retail development at Southwyck is the public housing just north of the mall site across the street.

The instability that this economic collapse is going to cause in parts of the world is not going to be pretty.

 

The capital well is running dry and some economies will wither

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Last Updated: 8:49AM BST 26 Apr 2009

 

"The world is running out of capital. We cannot take it for granted that the global bond markets will prove deep enough to fund the $6 trillion or so needed for the Obama fiscal package, US-European bank bail-outs, and ballooning deficits almost everywhere.

 

Unless this capital is forthcoming, a clutch of countries will prove unable to roll over their debts at a bearable cost. Those that cannot print money to tide them through, either because they no longer have a national currency (Ireland, Club Med), or because they borrowed abroad (East Europe), run the biggest risk of default.

 

Traders already whisper that some governments are buying their own debt through proxies at bond auctions to keep up illusions – not to be confused with transparent buying by central banks under quantitative easing. This cannot continue for long.

 

...

 

Link to the rest of the story.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/5220118/The-capital-well-is-running-dry-and-some-economies-will-wither.html

Negative GDP rating's are far from being over. With unemployment continuing to rise and foreclosures still going up we have a long ways to go before a meaningful recovery.

 

GDP falls 6.1% in first quarter on record drop in investment

Capital spending, inventories crater as consumer spending rebounds

 

"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy contracted violently again in the first quarter of the year as business investment declined at a record rate, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

 

Real gross domestic product -- the inflation-adjusted, seasonally adjusted value of all goods and services produced in the United States -- fell at a 6.1% annualized rate in the first quarter, nearly matching the 6.3% decline in the fourth quarter of 2008. Read the full report.

 

The two-quarter contraction is the worst in more than 50 years. Since the 1947, the economy had never contracted by more than 4% for two consecutive quarters. With a 0.5% drop in the third quarter of 2008, it's the first time the economy has contracted for three consecutive quarters since 1975."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/GDP-falls-61-record-drop/story.aspx?guid=%7BF4F6A5E6%2DB2F9%2D43B4%2D876E%2D57D2DBC107F5%7D

Here is a look at metro unemployment rates and how some local areas are doing at this time.

 

Metro Unemployment Rates for March 2009

United States 9.0

 

1. Iowa City, IA Metropolitan Statistical Area 3.6

12. Morgantown, WV Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.8

22. Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.2

41. Oklahoma City, OK Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.6

49. San Antonio, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.9

73. Charleston, WV Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.5

99. Bloomington, IN Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.1

103. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.2

124. Pittsburgh, PA Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.6

143. (Tie) Columbus, OH Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.1

143. Lexington-Fayette, KY Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.1

150. Kansas City, MO-KS Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.2

164. Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.4

182. (Tie) Indianapolis-Carmel, IN Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.7

182. Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.7

210. Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN Metropolitan Statistical Area 9.0

235. Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, Metropolitan Statistical Area 9.4

235. St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area1 9.4

268. Louisville-Jefferson County, Metropolitan Statistical Area 10.2

299. Dayton, OH Metropolitan Statistical Area 11.1

372. El Centro, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 25.1

           

http://www.bls.gov/web/laummtrk.htm

That's Cleveland Tennesee.

Yes, and please provide the source so we can check out the others.

 

EDIT: I think I found it.

 

http://www.bls.gov/web/laummtrk.htm

 

Cleveland, OH has an unemployment rate of 8.7%, which puts them at 182 (tied with Indianapolis).

Yes, and please provide the source so we can check out the others.

 

EDIT: I think I found it.

 

http://www.bls.gov/web/laummtrk.htm

 

Cleveland, OH has an unemployment rate of 8.7%, which puts them at 182 (tied with Indianapolis).

 

Sorry for the Cleveland mistake. I was in a hurry this morning. I have corrected my post and added the link (which I always try and do).

 

Its interesting to see how Columbus, Lexington, Indy and Cleveland are fairing a little better than the nation with Cincy at the national level and St. Louis, Chicago, Dayton and Louisville fairing worse than the national average so far.

The chart says the numbers are not seasonally adjusted. I wonder how "seasonal adjustment" might impact the rankings - I can't imagine it would be that much.

 

Although, Sandusky, Ohio is currently at 12.3%.  That might drop in half after CP opens.

 

Funny, why are all the lower ranked cities (as in 1st, 2nd, etc) in 'fly over' country.  I thought everyone wanted to live on the coasts?

 

 

Again, I'll note those "fabulous" place like:

• Atlanta
  
• S. Florida
  
• Charlotte
  
• Seattle
  
• Portland
  

Aren't untouchable utopia's.  Many were lower on the list than Ohio cities.

 

We should be marketing these facts and our much diverse business portfolios.

 

 

^ Maybe job losses hasn't filtered down to their economies yet, also alot don't have F500 companies with major distribution facilities.

^ Maybe job losses hasn't filtered down to their economies yet, also alot don't have F500 companies with major distribution facilities.

 

I meant, lower as they had higher unemployment numbers.

 

 

We should be marketing these facts and our much diverse business portfolios.

 

 

 

Good idea, but these numbers change too quickly & randomly for that to stick. Next month, it will be totally different.

It's amazing to me that Phoenix's unemployment rate isn't way higher considering the drop in property values and slowdown in construction.

It's amazing to me that Phoenix's unemployment rate isn't way higher considering the drop in property values and slowdown in construction.

 

Probably because all those old fossils are retired and not on any payroll.

The Old Folks didn't all die so that has to keep a few jobs around.

It's amazing to me that Phoenix's unemployment rate isn't way higher considering the drop in property values and slowdown in construction.

^I would think that a lot of those laid-off construction workers are probably of the 'illegal' variety and don't file for unemployment...they simply cross the border and go home.

The Old Folks didn't all die so that has to keep a few jobs around.

 

They're a few heart beats away from death!  Hell, why else would the move to God's waiting room west??  Lets face it, their hearts only beat a few times a month.

Here is a quick look at how this global recession is kicking into high gear. As the negative feed back loop builds, the next leg down is almost impossible to stop. Delay maybe, avoid, probably not.

 

UK wages collapse at fastest rate in 60 years

 

"Weekly wages fell at the fastest rate in 60 years in February as City bonuses were slashed and workers agreed to reduced hours in the wake of recession, the latest official figures show."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/5245729/UK-wages-collapse-at-fastest-rate-in-60-years.html

 

BoJ revises down growth forecast

By Michiyo Nakamoto in Tokyo

 

"The Bank of Japan expects growth to contract by a significantly greater margin than it forecast just two months ago as the world’s second largest economy continues to suffer from a collapse in demand.

 

“Economic conditions in Japan have deteriorated significantly,” the BoJ said in a statement on Thursday as it lowered its forecast for the economy to a 3.1 per cent contraction in the year to next March, rather than a previously expected 2 per cent decline in growth."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b6bb3582-352a-11de-940a-00144feabdc0.html

 

Germany contracts 6pc as eurozone bank deposits fall at fastest rate since Depression

 

"Germany has slashed its growth forecast, admitting in an embarrassing volte-face that the economy will contract by 6pc this year in the worst recession of any major country in the Western world."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/5244799/Germany-contracts-6pc-as-eurozone-bank-deposits-fall-at-fastest-rate-since-Depression.html

I'd expect one more major leg down as we head into the fall as a lot of the folks who are laid off start to see their benefits and savings dry up. But there really is a lot of stimulus and cheap money floating through the system. I'd guess we are headed for the feared L shaped recovery, though a Nike swoosh is not impossible.