wage growth and employment report 

 

Jobs smash estimates with gain of 250,000, wage gains pass 3% for first time since recession

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/02/us-created-250000-jobs-in-oct-vs-190000-jobs-expected.html

 

 

^ decent news but the wage gains are getting eaten up by inflation. 

Just now, gottaplan said:

wage growth and employment report 

 

Jobs smash estimates with gain of 250,000, wage gains pass 3% for first time since recession

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/02/us-created-250000-jobs-in-oct-vs-190000-jobs-expected.html

 

 

 

This is why I don't understand why anyone (regardless of their affiliation) would want a Democrat Congress at this point. Why go back to the failed policies of the past? It's like trading in a silk purse for a sow's ear. 

Edited November 2, 20186 yr by eastvillagedon

Job growth is exactly the same as it had been for about 8 years now. 

So odd how the economy, while at "full employment," can keep adding hundreds of thousands of jobs.  Almost like full employment is a completely BS concept.

Just now, eastvillagedon said:

 

This is why I don't understand why anyone (regardless of their affiliation) would want a Democrat Congress at this point. Why go back to the failed policies of the past? It's like trading in a silk purse for a sow's ear. 

 

Some of us study history.  Others are in cults.

 

https://thereformedbroker.com/2016/12/13/every-unified-republican-government-ever-has-led-to-a-financial-crash/

 

Quote

Every “Unified Republican Government” Ever Has Led to a Financial Crash

 

Edited November 2, 20186 yr by DarkandStormy

Didn't conservatives harp on the "labor participation rate" to try to discredit the 75 consecutive months of job growth under Obama?

 

https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet

 

Yeah, it's still at its lowest level since 1978.  When are we going to hear the criticisms of Trump and the Republicans for not expanding the labor participation rate?  I'll wait.

"Failed policies of the past"

 

Here is the change in unemployment rate during every President's tenure since 1953 (Eisenhower).  You will see, I'm sure, some patterns that have developed over the last 65 years.

 

 

 

Amazon not really doing an HQ2. More like an HQ2a and HQ2b? Choosing Long Island City neighborhood of Queens NYC and Crystal City VA across from Washington DC:  
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/05/technology/amazon-second-headquarters-split.amp.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share#click=https://t.co/Rh59izh7cV

 

The HQ2 was always such a weird concept (a second headquarters equal to the first? 50k new jobs from thin air?) that I was skeptical they’d go through with it as advertised. Meanwhile by going to these gilded coastal enclaves they’re not doing anything to help their image as an extractive company for flyover country...

Edited November 6, 20186 yr by thebillshark

I'm not surprised at all by the location choices.

 

Remember, amazon has to stay "cool". Wal-Mart has been totally uncool for 20 years but it doesn't matter since their core demo doesn't care and has no activist streak against big business. If amazon becomes uncool, cool sites are only a click away -- unlike Wal-Mart where people have to drive 75+ miles through the desert or rugged mountainsides to get to an alternative.

Just now, GCrites80s said:

I'm not surprised at all by the location choices.

 

Remember, amazon has to stay "cool". Wal-Mart has been totally uncool for 20 years but it doesn't matter since their core demo doesn't care had has no activist streak against big business. If amazon becomes uncool, cool sites are only a click away instead of the case of Wal-Mart where people have to drive 75+ miles through the desert or rugged mountainsides to get to an alternative.

But Amazon has been smart in creating an ecosystem with streaming content and other perks. This type of thing keeps a good portion in their orbit. 

Well hey, the positive news is that as a result of our easy to win trade wars, soy bean sales are down 94% in the last 12 months. Don't worry though, we are subsidizing that loss with a bridge loan from China. 

So instead of farmers having markets to sell their goods they can depend on the government.  That sounds a lot like socialism. 

 

That's what went on in the '80s under Reagan.

I just do not buy “creative class” theory. Who are these supposedly elite-Olympic-athlete-level corporate employees that will toil way happily in NYC but would not come to Columbus OH for any amount of money? If they are “superstars” aren’t they spending most of their time at work instead of taking advantage of restaurants, nightlife etc.? Especially  if you’re talking about engineers (who tend to be more introverted from my experience) and not fashion designers? I suppose there’s a threshold of cosmopolitan-ality to meet, but I have a hard time believing that most mid-sized cities in the US are below it. 

 

I saw a tweet that mentioned parts of Long Island City are in the new federally designated “Opportunity Zones.” Are the HQ2 sites simply places where Amazon can maximize their real estate investment? 

11 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

Well hey, the positive news is that as a result of our easy to win trade wars, soy bean sales are down 94% in the last 12 months. Don't worry though, we are subsidizing that loss with a bridge loan from China. 

 

I'm interested to see your source for that stat.  I have a lot of family & friends that are farmers - while prices are down, they aren't THAT far down.  People are still making money.

Quote

I just do not buy “creative class” theory. Who are these supposedly elite-Olympic-athlete-level corporate employees that will toil way happily in NYC but would not come to Columbus OH for any amount of money? If they are “superstars” aren’t they spending most of their time at work instead of taking advantage of restaurants, nightlife etc.? Especially  if you’re talking about engineers (who tend to be more introverted from my experience) and not fashion designers? I suppose there’s a threshold of cosmopolitan-ality to meet, but I have a hard time believing that most mid-sized cities in the US are below it. 

 

I saw a tweet that mentioned parts of Long Island City are in the new federally designated “Opportunity Zones.” Are the HQ2 sites simply places where Amazon can maximize their real estate investment? 

 

They ARE from Columbus (metaphorically) and want to leave.

Just now, gottaplan said:

 

I'm interested to see your source for that stat.  I have a lot of family & friends that are farmers - while prices are down, they aren't THAT far down.  People are still making money.

 

The failing NY Times https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/05/business/soybeans-farmers-trade-war.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Just now, thebillshark said:

I just do not buy “creative class” theory. Who are these supposedly elite-Olympic-athlete-level corporate employees that will toil way happily in NYC but would not come to Columbus OH for any amount of money? If they are “superstars” aren’t they spending most of their time at work instead of taking advantage of restaurants, nightlife etc.? Especially  if you’re talking about engineers (who tend to be more introverted from my experience) and not fashion designers? I suppose there’s a threshold of cosmopolitan-ality to meet, but I have a hard time believing that most mid-sized cities in the US are below it. 

 

I saw a tweet that mentioned parts of Long Island City are in the new federally designated “Opportunity Zones.” Are the HQ2 sites simply places where Amazon can maximize their real estate investment? 

 

Living in Los Angeles, I can tell you that A LOT of people here would never, ever consider moving to Columbus (or Cincinnati or Cleveland) for any amount of money. There is a real perception here that everything east of California and west of...DC? is a conservative cultural wasteland. I obviously couldn't agree less, but the perception is very much real. Chicago escapes this a bit, but even it kind of gets lumped into the general midwest narrative. 

 

This is why I think the Amazon decision is so disappointing. We already have a huge problem with educated (and yes, liberal) people leaving the interior of the country for better opportunities on the coasts. We saw the ramifications of this in the 2016 election, and it's not pretty. Companies need to invest in places like Detroit, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, the 3 Cs, etc. Even if they can't convince a bunch of Californians that Ohio is cool, they could keep a lot of Ohioans in Ohio, and that'a a crucial first step to reversing the narrative. Amazon had a unique opportunity to be THE game changer for a city, but instead chose to locate in NYC and DC, where their impact will be minimal. They had people in places from Detroit to Dayton dreaming about the possibility to reverse their fortunes in one catalytic investment, and it turns out it was all a charade. Shame on Amazon. 

Just now, GCrites80s said:

 

They ARE from Columbus (metaphorically) and want to leave.

I like how New York City is casually comparable to Columbus. Heck, why wouldn't they move to Findlay? We've got an Applebee's too. 

Creative people are born in small towns throughout the nation, as well as in the big cities of the Midwest. I'm sure many of them would prefer to not move to the coasts and stay close to family and friends.

 

And yet Californians are moving to conservative Salt Lake City, home of the Mormon Church.

Just now, YABO713 said:

 

The failing NY Times https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/05/business/soybeans-farmers-trade-war.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

That's a great article, thanks for sharing.  Obviously I cannot dispute any of the facts but I can tell you farmers in NW Ohio are still buying new trucks & tractors.   Nobody is in fear of losing their farms to foreclosure...  

^ It might have something to do with the type of crops grown in NW Ohio and where their market is located.

Just now, KJP said:

Creative people are born in small towns throughout the nation, as well as in the big cities of the Midwest. I'm sure many of them would prefer to not move to the coasts and stay close to family and friends.

 

And yet Californians are moving to conservative Salt Lake City, home of the Mormon Church.

 

When I was talking to random folks out in Seattle recently, I simply couldn't convince them that where I lived wasn't a hyperconservative bible belt wasteland. There are far more shades of grey in this country than a lot of coastal people are willing to admit/see, even within their own states.

 

I think SLC gets a pass because of the mountains. West Coasters only think a city is worthwhile if there are visible mountains nearby. It's the only explanation I have for why they're moving to (the admittedly lovely, yet isolated) places like Boise and Missoula despite these towns being much smaller and having less resources than more-developed cities further east.

Just now, gottaplan said:

That's a great article, thanks for sharing.  Obviously I cannot dispute any of the facts but I can tell you farmers in NW Ohio are still buying new trucks & tractors.   Nobody is in fear of losing their farms to foreclosure...  

 

Farmers only stop upgrading their equipment when things are REALLY shitty. There's too much to gain from newer equipments' increased productivity and decreased input costs.

Just now, gottaplan said:

That's a great article, thanks for sharing.  Obviously I cannot dispute any of the facts but I can tell you farmers in NW Ohio are still buying new trucks & tractors.   Nobody is in fear of losing their farms to foreclosure...  

 

Unless I'm missing something the article only points out that soybean exports to China are down 94%. Looking elsewhere, the price of soybeans is down a more manageable and expected amount of around 7% YTD.

 

What seems to be happening is that soybean prices in China are high because they're buying from other countries at a premium. American farms have to sell elsewhere for slightly less than they would have been selling if China were buying the typical amount of product. The US "wins" if the hit our farmers take (about a 7% cut in price) is less impactful than the impact the higher prices have on the Chinese consumer, which seems to be substantial: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-futures/china-soybean-prices-spike-as-trade-war-worries-feed-supply-fears-idUSKBN1KT0V3

Edited November 6, 20186 yr by Ram23

Just now, gottaplan said:

That's a great article, thanks for sharing.  Obviously I cannot dispute any of the facts but I can tell you farmers in NW Ohio are still buying new trucks & tractors.   Nobody is in fear of losing their farms to foreclosure...  

 

Yeah, I think on the whole many Ohio farmers are lucky that they're in close proximity to their markets. We have some big farms in Ohio, but nothing compared to the Plains states. 

China has been subsidizing its industries and putting prohibitive tariffs on our exports for a long time.  It might be the most successful economic policy ever devised.  They keep eating our lunch and sticking us with the tab.

Edited November 6, 20186 yr by 327

15 hours ago, 327 said:

China has been subsidizing its industries and putting prohibitive tariffs on our exports for a long time.  It might be the most successful economic policy ever devised.  They keep eating our lunch and sticking us with the tab.

 

China's stock market is down something like 30% on the year.  The tariffs have caused them to completely redirect their government subsidy - instead of supplementing technology & research (and intellectual theft), they are instead supplementing food, infrastructure and other essentials.  They've also reversed course on their practice of devaluing their currency

 

AND

 

Amazon chooses Nashville as home for East Coast hub

https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/national/amazon-to-announce-nashville-will-be-home-to-east-coast-hub-report-says

 

Edited November 13, 20186 yr by KJP

Good story, but misses the vital role that public transportation plays in expanding the labor pool. Two out of every three jobs in Ohio metro areas aren't accessible by transit...

 

Manufacturers say their worker shortage is getting worse. Here’s why

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/making-sense/manufacturers-say-their-job-shortage-is-getting-worse-heres-why

Edited November 19, 20186 yr by KJP

Ouch!  I still don't expect the stock market to fully crash until Summer 2019, but man has it been a bumpy few days.

7 minutes ago, bfwissel said:

Ouch!  I still don't expect the stock market to fully crash until Summer 2019, but man has it been a bumpy few days.

 

"Winning!"

 

I frequently try to bring to peoples' attention that the Rust Belt actually has a huge number of "tech" jobs, but because they're in manufacturing plants and not California office parks, people tend to ignore them and the impact they have on their communities. A lot of you have mixed opinions on Aaron Renn, but I'm glad he's bringing to light the often under-marketed tech asset the Midwest has in its high-tech manufacturing workforce:

 

Quote

People tend to think of high tech as software or biotech, but there’s often an under-the-radar high tech economy already in place in the overlooked industrial businesses of many communities. We talk about what these businesses are, where they are located, what they need, and why you’ve never heard of them.

 

More below:

https://www.aaronrenn.com/2019/01/10/the-overlooked-opportunity-in-the-high-tech-industrial-economy/

More evidence of how gov't meddling in industry leads to higher overall costs

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-16/u-s-student-debt-in-serious-delinquency-tops-166-billion?srnd=premium

 

Quote

The delinquencies also have broader implications. Because most of the loans are government-sponsored, they probably won’t hurt the economy the way mortgage debt did in 2007, Jersey said. “But incrementally, it does mean higher federal deficits if the loans are not repaid.”

 

 

Additionally, the more debt that goes into delinquency, the less credit worthy younger generation becomes.  With less credit worthy consumers, where does a debt based economy go?

All the more reason why we need trade government meddling with government incentivizing. But since that's what those nasty socialists in Europe and Canada do, we don't.

I thought this was an interesting chart:

 

 

23 minutes ago, taestell said:

I thought this was an interesting chart:

 

 

 

The cheaper things are mostly outsourced now, the others can't be.  And the revenues we've lost to outsourcing used to subsidize those other things.  It's a graphic representation of the "giant sucking sound" Ross Perot warned of in 1992.  Both parties laughed at him and we made radical changes to trade policy.  Then it went exactly the way he said it would.

But I think the large increase in the cost of hospitals and universities can be explained by both of these sectors investing huge sums of money into fancy new campuses and buildings for marketing reasons. The huge increase in cost hasn't translated into a huge increase in the quality of education or health outcomes. In other parts of the world, college campuses and medical offices look shabby compared to what we're used to in the US, but it's a lot cheaper too.

https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/promises/trumpometer/promise/1414/grow-economy-4-percent-year/

 

Quote

“We're bringing it (the GDP) from 1 percent up to 4 percent. And I actually think we can go higher than 4 percent. I think you can go to 5 percent or 6 percent.” - POTUS

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/4q18-gdp-first-and-second-estimate-130025490.html

 

Quote

In the fourth-quarter, U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 2.6%, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

 

 

 

U-6 unemployment in Appalachia is 65%.

Wow. It's 8 percent nationally. 

More in the "American retail apocalypse" genre: Some familiar names on here, some I didn't recognize as much but that still are apparently large (even if I hadn't heard of them) based on the size of their apparent indebtedness and operating deficits:

 

https://www.retaildive.com/news/12-retailers-walking-a-dangerous-line-toward-bankruptcy-in-2019/550963/

 

12 retailers walking a dangerous line toward bankruptcy in 2019

38 minutes ago, Gramarye said:

More in the "American retail apocalypse" genre: Some familiar names on here, some I didn't recognize as much but that still are apparently large (even if I hadn't heard of them) based on the size of their apparent indebtedness and operating deficits:

 

https://www.retaildive.com/news/12-retailers-walking-a-dangerous-line-toward-bankruptcy-in-2019/550963/

 

12 retailers walking a dangerous line toward bankruptcy in 2019

 

Just look at that leverage blowing up in the faces of all of those smartest guys in the room. 

 

 

I tell you one thing I've learned getting retail industry magazines... retailers as a whole are delusionally optimistic. Every time they survey us 80% say that this year is going to be better than last year.

The US economy in two headlines.....

 

 

 

AND

Edited June 8, 20196 yr by KJP