October 1, 20195 yr 1 minute ago, MyTwoSense said: Isn't that what this is all about? ? Generational financial stability is a marathon and one hell of a hill to climb. Also, there are plenty of people that are wealthy and squander it. I think we generally agree. My initial point is that opportunity is not equal. Some people are born on third base and others are not given at chance to bat. Government should always strive to increase opportunity for the latter.
October 2, 20195 yr In the '80s my family was quite rich. By the year 2000, we weren't. Things started off easy, but now they are very hard -- and that's without kids or student loan debt. Maybe I wasn't born into a situation that fostered compassion for those worse off than me but I sure as hell have it now. Edited October 2, 20195 yr by GCrites80s
October 2, 20195 yr 1 hour ago, MyTwoSense said: they don't have to worry about paying a shady landlord Bad living situations/bad roommates put hair on your chest. This goofball rolling the sushi was my landlord for five years: So he was my landlord even though he was 5+ years younger than me. How did he get the house at age 20~? Who knows. Actually he got two houses and managed two more that his sister owned. The four houses were identical and sat in a row on the same side of the block. His drug habit got so expensive that he lost his two houses in 2009 or 2010. A squatter was living in one of them for at least a year until the cops showed up one night and smoked her out. Then a guy bought the houses out of foreclosure for $20k apiece. I was living in one of the houses owned by the sister so I didn't have to move. There is a lot more to this story, but I'll hold back. Anyway, there have been a few moments in my life when I felt like I was "falling behind my peers". One was having to rent a room in a house owned by a guy who was significantly younger than me. Another was the time when I bought a house and the guy who owned the 20-unit building across the street came over and introduced himself. He was about 10 years younger than me. He somehow bought a $700k building in 2013 back when NOBODY could get a commercial loan. So dude is set for life because his dad, uncle, or somebody bought that apartment building for him. It's really fun when people who are 5-10 years younger than you talk down to you because you didn't inherit money and they did.
October 2, 20195 yr 1 hour ago, jmecklenborg said: Bad living situations/bad roommates put hair on your chest. This goofball rolling the sushi was my landlord for five years: So he was my landlord even though he was 5+ years younger than me. How did he get the house at age 20~? Who knows. Actually he got two houses and managed two more that his sister owned. The four houses were identical and sat in a row on the same side of the block. His drug habit got so expensive that he lost his two houses in 2009 or 2010. A squatter was living in one of them for at least a year until the cops showed up one night and smoked her out. Then a guy bought the houses out of foreclosure for $20k apiece. I was living in one of the houses owned by the sister so I didn't have to move. There is a lot more to this story, but I'll hold back. Anyway, there have been a few moments in my life when I felt like I was "falling behind my peers". One was having to rent a room in a house owned by a guy who was significantly younger than me. Another was the time when I bought a house and the guy who owned the 20-unit building across the street came over and introduced himself. He was about 10 years younger than me. He somehow bought a $700k building in 2013 back when NOBODY could get a commercial loan. So dude is set for life because his dad, uncle, or somebody bought that apartment building for him. It's really fun when people who are 5-10 years younger than you talk down to you because you didn't inherit money and they did. You never know how he bought. I bought my apartment for nothing, and remodeled. Also, how you're raised, is a big influence as well. I appreciate all my grand parents did for equal rights in the 1960s, although they were denied many things. I have a keen appreciation for a dollar. Today, my grandparents are thousands of years old, and although my father and his siblings are all alive, I will do whatever to make my grandparents lives easier. They will never want for anything. I''m fostering a child that had nothing, and i mean, nothing. so I can understand and appreciate inequalities in wealth in many forms.
October 2, 20195 yr 16 hours ago, Terdolph said: You didn't listen to the Democratic debates. "Wiping out" student debt is exactly what they promised, not the government paying it off. Actually, I did listen to the Democratic debates. I heard the same words as you, but apparently I understood them differently. As you noted, a President cannot unilaterally issue an executive order canceling privately-owned debt. That means that "wiping out" student loan debt will require legislation of some sort. Can we agree on that point? So the candidates' intent is clear, to find a way for the government to ease the population's student loan debt burden. The exact mechanism employed, whether it is the government buying and retiring the debt or writing checks to those with student loans or something else, will require Congressional action. Surely you're not taking every candidate's promises literally, are you? Let's remember that despite candidate Trump's promises, coal mining is not making a comeback in the US. Quote More than any other recent president, Donald Trump came to office promising to revive coal and restore mining jobs. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-21/trump-promised-to-bring-back-coal-it-s-declining-again Quote The federal government says it received no bids during a competitive lease sale for coal underneath about 430 acres of Ohio’s Wayne National Forest. https://www.nbc4i.com/news/state-news/no-bidders-for-coal-leases-inside-ohios-wayne-national-forest/ But the intent -- to increase reliance on US-based rather than foreign-originated natural resources -- surely was supported by many and helped candidate Trump win the election. (and helped to support state initiatives like Ohio's plan to subsidize two coal plants and two nuclear plants.) And while Trump failed to deliver on the literal campaign promises, I don't think the Republican party is surprised or disappointed that the Trump administration has reduced the number of mine safety inspectors and relaxed Clean Air and Clean Water rules to try to help the industry. Similarly, Democratic candidates' promises of "wiping out" student loan debt surely will not lead to "elimination of all student loan debt," but likely will lead to new legislation and new regulations that will ease the student loan debt burden to at least some degree for at least some of the population. (In contrast, my understanding is that most Republicans think that government has no role to play in student loan debt.)
October 2, 20195 yr 12 hours ago, MyTwoSense said: You never know how he bought. He bought two houses at age 18 or 19. His sister bought the two houses right next door. So there was almost certainly a gift from a family member. Must be nice. Aaaannnd in November of 2008 so much of the rent had gone up his nose we get to do this:
October 2, 20195 yr "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
October 2, 20195 yr I still maintain Trump initiated economic anxiety the minute he took office, even among his voters who took a minute to "see what he was going to do". The minute that election happened people just stopped spending except for Buzz the Overpaid Boomer who went on a spree of F-150s, Side By Side UTVs, and other camo-colored and flat black stuff.
October 2, 20195 yr Yes they did! Even Buzz is spent out as dealer lots fill with unneeded vehicles. I almost wonder if the GM strike is actually good for dealers, many of whom that wanted to clear their backlog of stock.
October 2, 20195 yr Any drop in manufacturing could hit legacy cities in the Midwest harder than most others. Cleveland's economic numbers show the Manufacturing Sector employment retracting, beginning in May of this year. https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.oh_cleveland_msa.htm Cleveland's overall regional economy hasn't been affected as of yet (thank God) as it's no longer centered on Manufacturing, and is still growing year-over-year.
October 2, 20195 yr Wework is on the brink of collapse. Just another scam in tech's clothing: http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/10/marketing-expert-scott-galloway-on-wework-and-adam-neumann.html The last two paragraphs of the interview are quite sad. Apparently much of the staff took relatively low wages in exchange for equity. Now the company is virtually worthless.
October 2, 20195 yr Wework leases 45 million sq feet around the world, a volume of office space equivalent to downtown Philadelphia . So all of those landlords are suddenly going to have to scramble for tenants to fill spaces that were all just renovated into coworking spaces. It's a disaster.
October 2, 20195 yr 4 hours ago, GCrites80s said: At least nobody is going to trust "tech" anymore... at least for a while I bought and read an old copy (like 1971) of Benjamin Graham's book 10~ years ago, just as the economy was tanking. He has all of these examples in there where pension fund managers -- not just one, but many across the nation -- made the same mistakes throughout the 1960s (especially the collapse of the Pennsylvania Railroad) because they were all listening to each other instead of analyzing fundamentals on their own and adhering to sound principals. This was right when mutual funds were starting so he doesn't talk about them much but the same problem exists with fund managers and venture capitalists. They get so caught up in the emotion and glamour that they can't just chill out and do what they were taught in business school. My brother is in a top MBA program. He's going to be north of $100k in debt when he gets out. I read his syllabi for fun while using his computer and couldn't believe how basic it all was. It was the exact same crap covered by pop business books. But unfortunately it was all tilted toward VC-type stuff (one lecture during one class was titled "institutional investors vs. venture capitalists". I suppose that the business schools are forced to do this because that's what their customers prospective students want. Edited October 2, 20195 yr by jmecklenborg
October 4, 20195 yr 20 hours ago, Terdolph said: We are pretty much in agreement. To make it short, I don't think the Democrats will do anything at all about student loans and were simply making promises that they know can't be fufilled-pure pandering. I also think that Trump pandered to W. Virginia etc. with the coal mining thing. It's not because of environmental issues really, it's just that natural gas is so cheap coal can't compete. If you think that the Democrats will do nothing at all about student loans and it's only pandering, then we aren't in agreement. They will do something, just as Trump's administration made it easier to mine coal, the Democrats will do something to lesson the burden of student loan debt, they just won't make current student loans disappear.
October 4, 20195 yr The coal companies know that and even announced it to the Trumpies over and over. They wouldn't listen to the professionals because Trump goosed their belief system afterburners.
October 8, 20195 yr "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
October 30, 20195 yr https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gdp-report-3q-2019-advance-estimate-economy-203535589.html Q3 GDP growth slowed to 1.9% (and I'd put money on this getting revised down in the coming months like it usually does). Quote Nonresidential private investment turned negative for the first time since 2016 in the second quarter and contracted again during the third quarter, this time by 3.0%, or the most since the fourth quarter of 2015. Within this, structures investment posted the steepest decline of 15.3%, with economists having anticipated that factors including weaker oil patch and factory spending would weigh on this measure. “The capex numbers were awful,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in an email Wednesday. “Investment in intellectual property strengthened, rising by a solid 6.6%, but it’s less volatile than structures and equipment spending, which appear to have fallen victim to slower earnings growth and the uncertainty caused by the trade war.” Very Stable Genius
November 4, 20195 yr September 2018: Dow high was 26,743.50 (up 2.7% since). Nasdaq high was 8010.04 (up 5.28% since). S&P high was 2913.98 (up 5.6% since). In other words, growth has been somewhat moderate. It's just the crazy dip last winter has distorted this year's gains a bit. And that's good. Conservative growth is a better indicator than crazy growth (after which steep declines may follow).
January 4, 20205 yr US manufacturing activity falls to lowest level in decade https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-manufacturing-activity-falls-lowest-level-decade-68050439 "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
January 21, 20205 yr The constant churn of the digital revolution seems likely to be claiming another victim soon: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/01/frontier-an-isp-in-29-states-plans-to-file-for-bankruptcy/ Frontier, an ISP in 29 states, plans to file for bankruptcy ... Frontier has been losing customers and reducing its staff. Its residential-customer base dropped from 4.15 million to 3.81 million in the 12-month period ending September 30, 2019, including a loss of 90,000 customers in the most recent quarter. Also in that 12-month period, Frontier's business-customer base declined from 422,000 to 381,000. Meanwhile, Frontier had 19,132 employees as of September 30, 2019, down from 21,375 one year earlier. Frontier's financial performance last year was so bad that it refused to take any questions from investors during its quarterly earnings call in August. Frontier is in the process of selling its operations in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana to WaveDivision Capital. ================================ Not sure whether to call this one of the largest casualties yet of cord-cutting or simply a casualty of outdated tech even for data delivery (as I understand it, a lot of Frontier data was still delivered over copper). That said, this does make me wonder how big the cable-cutting and/or alternative data solutions earthquake would have to be to bring down Comcast and Spectrum. Frontier is just a tremor even if it goes to liquidation (and the more likely scenario appears to be that they will strike a deal with creditors and reorganize, but they'll still be smaller). The real earth-shattering earthquake would be if one of the real titans of cord-based TV and data delivery gets swamped by the next phase of the digital revolution.
January 21, 20205 yr They mostly served rural areas which is an extremely tough market for their products due to low population density.
January 21, 20205 yr Also any old-school DSL services just can't compete anymore. My parents live in a semi-rural area served by Spectrum cable, but Dad still wants his POTS landline, in part because the cable does go out, and their electricity goes out a lot due to tree branches and the occasional hurricane. They also still use flip phones, sigh. They've had a phone/internet bundle with CenturyLink/Embarq for well over a decade, spending close to $100/month for the phone and 1.5mbit internet. They can get Spectrum's 200+mbit plan, but Dad still elected to go with a new CenturyLink bundle that drops the $0.10/minute long-distance rate (I can't believe that's still a thing) and gets them I think 15mbit internet for about $85/month. That's still a ripoff if you ask me, but at least it's better than before. I doubt they can push much more data over those copper lines though, due to the spread-out development pattern and physical limits of the technology. Unless a company like this invests in fiber, like Cincinnati Bell, they're likely to just wither away.
March 9, 20205 yr This is going to sting some, but it's going to crush Russia. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
March 19, 20205 yr "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
March 22, 20205 yr It's been 91 years since the last big crash and depression. Some say these things come in cycles. I do agree with several comments on these forums--at some point we need to consider what damage is worse--the virus or shutting down the entire economy? Top Economists See Echoes of Depression in U.S. Sudden Stop https://finance.yahoo.com/news/top-economists-see-echoes-depression-110000038.html
March 22, 20205 yr Probably the Virus. If there's no people, there's no economy. If the virus and its effects have a prolonged presence, that likely puts a drag on the economy as well.
March 22, 20205 yr People act like if there were no quarantine orders, things would just continue on like nothing was happening. It's a false choice. The economy was going to tank regardless.
March 22, 20205 yr The economy needs supply. With a global supply chain even if we recklessly kept going the supply of parts, materials etc. sourced from other nations would still dry up fairly quickly and many things would stop anyway.
March 23, 20205 yr i disagree. What does recklessly have to do with anything!?! If there is demand, nobody knows if that is “reckless” or not. 5000 people buying up all the toilet paper available is not reckless?
March 23, 20205 yr I'm not sure what you mean. Without supply only scalpers make money. Supply lags demand in emergencies.
March 23, 20205 yr 4 hours ago, Mendo said: People act like if there were no quarantine orders, things would just continue on like nothing was happening. It's a false choice. The economy was going to tank regardless. This. I think at this point we(and most everyone else)are F%^&$d. Only silver lining is maybe this meltdown will bring about some serious long term societal economic changes-maybe we won't have to have a revolution after all?
March 23, 20205 yr Maybe it's time to start reviving Depression-era expressions? When will we be living in Trumpvilles? And flying Trump Flags?
March 23, 20205 yr I always felt like the economy was kind of falsely running hot, with all the "programs" and such. I mean, who really knows for sure, but the Trump Administration was pushing every button possible to make the stock market go, kind of like it's own bubble. There has to be a "true" market in there somewhere. Part of the problem with "running" hot is you basically are putting the pedal to the metal and you run out of gas. Or, you thought you were going to get to the "finish" line (maybe the 2020 elction?) with the gas you had left (being super risky in the macroeconomy), then a freaking landslide dropped into the middle of the road in your way, and you ran out of gas before the finish line. Now, you need a freaking helicopter rescue and demolition blast and it takes 3 months to get the road cleared again, and what you were risking all fell apart. The "gas" in this case would be extremely low interest rates which encourage everyone from businesses to cities to individuals to borrow. Great for business! Horribly bad during a pandemic! When the economy was humming super good, the Feds should have maybe rose interest rates. I understand, they probably thought this would keep going and it probalby would have, but this hit at one of the worst possible times. If you rose interest rates then over time people would borrow less, rely more on cash reserves, it would slow the economy down but you could weather this storm MUCH better. But now, the bailouts are going to be massive and everything that was "gained" is now lost. Theoretically, it should bounce back quickly if this virus issue gets cleared up quickly... but seems like that isn't exactly going to be the case.
March 23, 20205 yr Did we expect any different? I personally am on the side of helping corporations, but making sure there are stringent measures put in place so that they actually use the money to retain workers during this crisis. The GOP's coronavirus relief package is a dream for big corporations and a nightmare for struggling Americans https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-pandemic-senate-gop-bill-doesnt-help-americans-workers-2020-3?fbclid=IwAR3Zmb2EfmaYlZO9Y0NGLD4dzK_Eb7hNLsT8oKVjwUqUMluiMOHE8TrK92E
March 23, 20205 yr 3 minutes ago, Cleburger said: Did we expect any different? I personally am on the side of helping corporations, but making sure there are stringent measures put in place so that they actually use the money to retain workers during this crisis. The GOP's coronavirus relief package is a dream for big corporations and a nightmare for struggling Americans https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-pandemic-senate-gop-bill-doesnt-help-americans-workers-2020-3?fbclid=IwAR3Zmb2EfmaYlZO9Y0NGLD4dzK_Eb7hNLsT8oKVjwUqUMluiMOHE8TrK92E This should include: -A provision against stock buybacks for X years -Protections for workers (e.g., you can keep the money if you retain 90% of workers in the next two years) -Unemployment benefits for independent contractors Plus some others I'm probably blanking on at the moment. Very Stable Genius
March 24, 20205 yr I’m amazed on the pushback over having conditions on the loans. Like republicans aren’t even trying to hide the fact they want to simply enrich their donors. This needs to pass because workers and companies need that cash ASAP. Just gotta bridge the next few months, get past this and get back on track. I cannot wait to go to a bar or restaurant again.....
March 24, 20205 yr 8 hours ago, Ruken said: I’m amazed on the pushback over having conditions on the loans. Like republicans aren’t even trying to hide the fact they want to simply enrich their donors. This needs to pass because workers and companies need that cash ASAP. Just gotta bridge the next few months, get past this and get back on track. I cannot wait to go to a bar or restaurant again..... Me too. My family eats out 5-10 times per week. My son is going to need a haircut big-time and the wife very much wants to hit the spa again. We will tip generously. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
March 24, 20205 yr On 3/23/2020 at 11:06 AM, IAGuy39 said: Theoretically, it should bounce back quickly if this virus issue gets cleared up quickly... but seems like that isn't exactly going to be the case. The U.S.'s domestic activity will return more or less instantly since there will be no physical damage or loss of knowledge (short of a handful of places where key people are deceased) but there will be a lag around the world with our vendors and customers. All of the restaurant chatter is tiresome to me - Americans go to restaurants way too much. People pay $40,000 to renovate their kitchens and then hardly cook with them. That said, I will definitely be out at the bar the night they reopen. It's going to be wild.
March 24, 20205 yr 10 minutes ago, jmecklenborg said: The U.S.'s domestic activity will return more or less instantly since there will be no physical damage or loss of knowledge (short of a handful of places where key people are deceased) but there will be a lag around the world with our vendors and customers. The other key thing is to prevent layoffs. That could slow a recovery. Edited March 24, 20205 yr by mu2010
March 25, 20205 yr ^If restaurants and other "non-essential" businesses remain closed for 90 ore more days, a lot of people will have moved and/or changed their plans, and so companies won't be able to rehire their former staffs entirely intact. But that problem will resolve itself pretty quickly with the exception of seasonal businesses like amusement parks which might decide to simply not open at all for the season. I'm not sure what the training period is for a place like King's Island, but say it's 2 weeks. If everyone is given the go-ahead on May 1 then I'd expect that they'll open May 15. If it's June 1 they might not bother since a June 15 opening date means they've already missed 10+ weeks of business.
March 25, 20205 yr 2 hours ago, jmecklenborg said: The U.S.'s domestic activity will return more or less instantly since there will be no physical damage or loss of knowledge (short of a handful of places where key people are deceased) but there will be a lag around the world with our vendors and customers. All of the restaurant chatter is tiresome to me - Americans go to restaurants way too much. People pay $40,000 to renovate their kitchens and then hardly cook with them. That said, I will definitely be out at the bar the night they reopen. It's going to be wild. I think I said it in a group about retail, but it's worth repeating here. This will eliminate the weakest retailers and restaurants and help complete the rebalancing that's been long needed. America (in general) has far too much square-foot devoted to restaurants and retail than any other nation. Already, Neiman Marcus is considering Chapter 11, GNC is in deep trouble, and Party City and Jo-Ann have been downgraded. Those with strong omni-channel strategies will thrive and survive - Wal-Mart, Amazon, and Target are thriving, but Macy's, JCPenny and other mainstream retailers with weak online retail offerings will further weaken.
March 25, 20205 yr I also wonder what impact it will have long-term with the car industry. There are projections that many smaller, independent car dealers won't survive, either closing up entirely or being bought by larger entities. And there is already a glut of car dealers, so it's another rebalancing that's long been needed. Interestingly, I got a call from my local Subaru dealership offering me a 10% premium over Kelly's Blue Book for my 2016 Outback. They are offering a 63 month 0% offer for a new vehicle and while that's tempting, it'll be like hell getting financing for most people. Other car companies are offering loan payment deferrals, 0% APRs for years, and other incentives to prevent the car industry from collapsing entirely.
March 25, 20205 yr My company started importing a lot of basic packaging materials from China about 15 years ago. It grew from a container every few months to several containers per month. We're now running low on this stuff and we and many others will have to switch to more expensive American suppliers (3M, etc.) who themselves might not be operating at full capacity, let alone have the ability to increase production. Many industries will be affected by situations like this over the next three months, but it is a very temporary situation that will resolve itself within 90 days, if not half that, as soon as everything resumes. The precipitous stock market drop of the past two weeks was short-term people fleeing to cash. As long as this doesn't turn into a protracted slog, there isn't going to be a multi-year recovery.
March 26, 20205 yr Stick a fork in it: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/business/cheesecake-factory-april-rent-coronavirus/index.html The whole veneer of American retail is built on debt, debt, and more debt. A downtown skyline and a shopping mall is just a bunch of debt-laden plate spinning.
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