1 hour ago, TBideon said:

Force majeure. They'll be back.

This what I've been worried about all along. What happens to all of the landlords when they cant pay the mortgage? Seems like it could get ugly.

 

5 minutes ago, KJP said:

 

Makes complete sense with everyone ordering from home.   I understand that UPS/Fedex are hiring temp drivers now in excess of a normal Christmas season. 

Also a lot of stuff was in the "wrong place" for what's going on now.

56 minutes ago, GCrites80s said:

Also a lot of stuff was in the "wrong place" for what's going on now.

 

That's basically the reason toilet paper is so hard to get right now.  Even without hoarding, the demand for consumer TP has still nearly doubled with so many people staying home.  The consumer brands had been producing at near capacity already, since there was steady demand and it's a commodity good, so there's little room for overhead and idle production facilities.  The suppliers of TP for commercial uses, like schools, offices, hotels, restaurants, stores, etc. can't just shift their production line and supply chain since they use different raw materials and production facilities.  Even if you as a consumer want to buy some 12" diameter rolls of commercial TP, they're set up to be moved on pallets using completely different sales, shipping, and delivery logistics.  

 

It's a similar case for the foods that are in short supply.  With so many restaurants running on fumes at best, their commercial suppliers can't just turn around and dump a two dozen 50lb sacks of flour on Kroger's loading dock.  I heard once that many of the local Thai restaurants buy their spring roles pre-made from the same supplier (Jungle Jim's?  Do they have a wholesale restaurant supply division?) and they just deep fry them at the restaurant.  It's a rather esoteric example sure, but imagine trying to redirect that supply to the direct-to-consumer market.  "Sure I can deliver you 10 gross of frozen spring rolls, what's your account number and tax ID?"  

One of the best places I've found for disinfectants, non-commercial grade toilet paper (huge rolls), and vegetables (since our local shop down in Kentucky is always exhausted) has been a restaurant supply outfit in Huntington, West Virginia.

With manufacturing already in a mild recession, these kinds of stories wont' bode well 

 

Boeing indefinitely extends factories’ coronavirus shutdown; here’s what that means for 30,000 workers

 

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/boeing-indefinitely-extends-production-shutdown-at-washington-state-plants-due-to-coronavirus/

 

 

 

5 minutes ago, freefourur said:

 

 

Not really.  Market is up based (largely) on news of Federal Reserve announcing $2.3 trillion more in funding.

1 minute ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

Not really.  Market is up based (largely) on news of Federal Reserve announcing $2.3 trillion more in funding.

I know. It's just interesting that the market can rally even with astronomical financial suffering among "normal people"

1 minute ago, freefourur said:

I know. It's just interesting that the market can rally even with astronomical financial suffering among "normal people"

 

Yeah, something like 10% of the labor force is out of work in the last three weeks.  Then again, the stock market has many factors that impacts it, including what the Fed does or doesn't do.  And stocks have been on a tear in the last couple weeks, mostly on the expectation that the covid-19 impact will be less than initially feared.  At least, that's what I've been taking away from headlines and such.  Who knows the real reason lol.

For most of those out of work, it is just temporary.

7 minutes ago, skiwest said:

For most of those out of work, it is just temporary.

job loss is almost always temporary. 

14 minutes ago, skiwest said:

For most of those out of work, it is just temporary.

 

In normal times, yes.  But in this instance I think it's short-sighted.   There will be a large percentage of restaurants and retail that just never re-open.  It's already happening to malls and commercial developers.  Very few tenants are paying their rent right now.  When they are allowed to reopen, unless they are granted a reprieve on back rent, they may just choose to gather their inventory and walk away.  

46 minutes ago, freefourur said:

I know. It's just interesting that the market can rally even with astronomical financial suffering among "normal people"

 

Tons of computers programmed to buy the dips

Oil is rallying now that the cartel has decided to cut supply (free market...lol). I am glad I sold ATHX yesterday and bought MRO which is now rallying.  

44 minutes ago, freefourur said:

job loss is almost always temporary. 

What I meant was most of them will be able to go back to their previous job vs. having to find another job.

1 minute ago, skiwest said:

What I meant was most of them will be able to go back to their previous job vs. having to find another job.

I don't think is is necessarily true. many businesses will close before this is over.

4 hours ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

 

700,000 unemployment claims in Ohio due to this in the last 3 weeks. What would that make Ohio's current unemployment numbers?

17 minutes ago, Toddguy said:

700,000 unemployment claims in Ohio due to this in the last 3 weeks. What would that make Ohio's current unemployment numbers?

 

Ohio says its labor force is 5,829,100.  And prior to covid-19, unemployment was 4.1% or 240,800.  That's seasonally adjusted.  Not adjusting, it was 276,400 / 5,836,400 = 4.7%.

 

So 16.1% seasonally-adjusted.  16.7% unadjusted.

3 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

Ohio says its labor force is 5,829,100.  And prior to covid-19, unemployment was 4.1% or 240,800.  That's seasonally adjusted.  Not adjusting, it was 276,400 / 5,836,400 = 4.7%.

 

So 16.1% seasonally-adjusted.  16.7% unadjusted.

Damn! thanks for figuring that out. I really hope we can get this thing under control within a year if not sooner and our economy can bounce back

Edited April 9, 20205 yr by Toddguy

4 hours ago, GCrites80s said:

 

Tons of computers programmed to buy the dips

 

 

The 'ol puke & rally.  

10 hours ago, freefourur said:

Oil is rallying now that the cartel has decided to cut supply (free market...lol). I am glad I sold ATHX yesterday and bought MRO which is now rallying.  

 

Not so fast.  We're basically back to where the day began.  I bought $5,000 worth of sketchy oil stocks on April 3.  I was up $800+ around lunchtime today but ended the day only up $112. 

15 minutes ago, jmecklenborg said:

 

Not so fast.  We're basically back to where the day began.  I bought $5,000 worth of sketchy oil stocks on April 3.  I was up $800+ around lunchtime today but ended the day only up $112. 

Yep. I spoke to soon. I should've cash out when I posted. 

this entire video is great

 

The hits keep coming 

 

 

^We all knew this was coming right?  No surprises here as far as I'm concerned.  And if you thought March was bad wait until you see the April numbers...

Edited April 15, 20205 yr by Hootenany

So with another 5 million unemployment claims and 13.5 percent of workers unemployed in the last 4 weeks that means the unemployment rate is now at 17 percent? Damn. 

 

I know there is light at the end of the tunnel, but the tunnel needs to be as short as possible.

Oil is down 40% today trading at $11.

 

 

 

Edited April 20, 20205 yr by freefourur

38 minutes ago, freefourur said:

Oil is down 40% today trading at $11.

 

 

 

 

Might explain the aggressive moves by Russian fighter jets the past couple days.   Will be interesting to see what Trump does to try to get the price going up again. 

^ I'm not sure that much can be done. Demand is way down and cuts in production don't seem to be helping much.

Oil below $8.00bbl.  wow! I'm not sure what this means in the big picture economically but this is amazing.

8 minutes ago, freefourur said:

Oil below $8.00bbl.  wow! I'm not sure what this means in the big picture economically but this is amazing.

 

One thing it means:   Oil and Gas donations to the GOP will be down dramatically.  

Trump made a great deal with Russia and SA it seems.  It was $24bbl at that time. I now understand why he nearly blew his daddy's fortune 2x and had to get bailed out by him.

Edited April 20, 20205 yr by freefourur

Definitely low, but not seeing that $8 statistic just yet:

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/04/20/us-oil-price-collapses-to-lowest-level-since-1999-infographic/#469457a17106

 

The COVID-19 pandemic has sent U.S. oil prices tumbling to their lowest level since 1999 amid evaporating demand and a lack of storage. The price of West Texas Intermediate, a major U.S. oil benchmark, was down almost 18% at just under $14.99 per barrel when European markets opened on Monday. The price was even lower in Asian trading at just $14.49 per barrel. The losses were exacerbated by the pending expiration of the May futures contract which is expected to happen tomorrow.

 

=======================

 

I did the math on my Tesla and generally estimated that people driving similarly sized cars pay less per mile if gas gets under $1.33/gal.  We're practically there.  Definitely didn't think I'd see the day.  That said, given all this going on right now, I'm happy to never have to go to a gas station or touch a pump.

 

The oil price will recover as travel, especially large institutional users (airlines and cruise lines) are able to ramp up again.  But those industries are likely to be slow getting back on their feet.  I'd expect that it's going to be a fairly affordable summer for road trips.

 

 

What's the May'20?  Is this a futures contract price?

8 minutes ago, Gramarye said:

What's the May'20?  Is this a futures contract price?

I think so?  although, I'm not well versed on this at all.  Perhaps I am misunderstanding.

Edited April 20, 20205 yr by freefourur

No, wow, it's apparently legit--but it involves people selling out before that futures contract matures (though I also don't know how all this works, since we're still in April):

 

Warning: monthly article limit: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/oil-drops-to-18-year-low-on-global-demand-crunch-storage-woes

 

 

I've been seeing a couple stories on Twitter about crude trading in the negative in Canada?  

 

 

Another breaking article from CNBC:

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/oil-markets-us-crude-futures-in-focus-as-coronavirus-dents-demand.html

 

U.S. crude prices plunged to their lowest level in history as traders continue to fret over a slump in demand due to the coronavirus pandemic. The price of the nearest oil futures contract, which expires Tuesday, was the hardest hit, detaching from later month futures contracts with a drop of more than 90%. This suggests that some believe there could be a recovery later in the year.

 

West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery tanked 92%, or $16.76, to $1.38 per barrel, its lowest level on record. Meanwhile international benchmark, Brent crude, which has already rolled to the June contract, traded 6.2% lower at $26.35 per barrel. The June WTI contract, which expires on May 19, fell about 10% to $22.54 per barrel. The July contract was roughly 5% lower at $28 per barrel.

 

The front part of the oil futures ‘curve,’ which is the May contract that expires on Tuesday, was hit the hardest since it applies to fuel that’s set to be delivered while most of the country remains on lockdown thanks to the coronavirus. There’s little demand for gasoline from refineries, and storage tanks in the U.S. are nearing their limits.

 

The spread between the May and June contracts — known as the front month and second month — is now the widest in history, according to KKM Financial’s Jeff Kilburg. “This is a phenomenon due to the expiration of the front month contract coupled with the historic plunge in crude,” he said in an email.

 

==============================

 

The tasseographic version of this is that what the market is pricing in is that demand for April and May combined will be so low that we've already produced too much--by a long shot, to the point that almost every storage facility on the planet is filling up and can't even buy any more to release when the price is higher, because they've already done exactly that.  (Otherwise, if you had an empty oil storage facility right now, of course you would buy a ton of those futures contracts, fill up your storage facility at $1.38/barrel in May, and then sell it in June or July when the price is expected to be above $20 again.)

 

Someone else told me just a few minutes ago that he's seeing stories of full tankers in the ocean that literally cannot dock because there's nowhere for their oil to go.

LOL

Negative $37 per barrel now.   

2 hours ago, Gramarye said:

Definitely low, but not seeing that $8 statistic just yet:

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/04/20/us-oil-price-collapses-to-lowest-level-since-1999-infographic/#469457a17106

 

The COVID-19 pandemic has sent U.S. oil prices tumbling to their lowest level since 1999 amid evaporating demand and a lack of storage. The price of West Texas Intermediate, a major U.S. oil benchmark, was down almost 18% at just under $14.99 per barrel when European markets opened on Monday. The price was even lower in Asian trading at just $14.49 per barrel. The losses were exacerbated by the pending expiration of the May futures contract which is expected to happen tomorrow.

 

=======================

 

I did the math on my Tesla and generally estimated that people driving similarly sized cars pay less per mile if gas gets under $1.33/gal.  We're practically there.  Definitely didn't think I'd see the day.  That said, given all this going on right now, I'm happy to never have to go to a gas station or touch a pump.

 

The oil price will recover as travel, especially large institutional users (airlines and cruise lines) are able to ramp up again.  But those industries are likely to be slow getting back on their feet.  I'd expect that it's going to be a fairly affordable summer for road trips.

 

$1.19 a gallon in Cleveland near Euclid Beach.

11 minutes ago, E Rocc said:

 

$1.19 a gallon in Cleveland near Euclid Beach.

So they weren’t paying people to take their gas? 

1 hour ago, freefourur said:

Negative $37 per barrel now.   

 

The figures being cited are for contracts, not actual barrels, as I understand it.  June contracts are going for $22 a barrel.

13 minutes ago, audidave said:

So they weren’t paying people to take their gas? 

 

Hell, I'd be wealthy right now LOL.   Between work being essential and busy, still heading down to Sagamore most days, plus taking my daughter for a drive when she needs a change of scenery.    The new SUV has a slightly lower MPG than the old car it seems,.

4 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

The figures being cited are for contracts, not actual barrels, as I understand it.  June contracts are going for $22 a barrel.

I have to admit that I don't know the difference. I mean I do know that I can't show up at the refinery with a barrel and have them fill it up and pay me. but beyond that I'll plead ignorance.