And I'll bet that most of the drop was because city planning commissions weren't able to meet and approve projects.....

 

 

FWIW....

 

 

 

 

Local Area Unemployment Statistics are out with COVID-19 stats.

 

For Ohio:

 

188. Columbus MSA - 13.7

204. Cincinnati MSA - 14.1

270. Dayton MSA - 15.9

276. Akron MSA - 16.0

286. Canton-Massillon MSA - 16.3

317. Springfield MSA - 17.4

354. Youngstown-Warren-Boardman MSA - 19.8

359. Mansfield MSA - 20.3

361. Lima MSA - 20.6

370. Toledo MSA - 22.0

373. Cleveland-Elyria MSA - 23.1

 

Nationally, some notables:

 

The bottom is 389. Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI MSA - 35.0389 (!!!)

The second from the bottom, and not far from Ohio, is 388. Kokomo MSA - 34.1

The top metro for employment numbers currently is Logan, UT-ID MSA - 6.2

The top major metro is 9. Hartford MSA at 7.5

The worst major metro is, not surprisingly, Las Vegas MSA with 33.5

 

Full list from 6/3/20 is below:

https://www.bls.gov/web/metro/laummtrk.htm

22 minutes ago, ColDayMan said:

The bottom is 389. Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI MSA - 35.0389 (!!!)

 

This is Maui.  Their entire economy is basically tourism.

Surprised to see such a big gap between Cleveland and Akron MSA.  Would have thought they'd track pretty closely.

Whoopsie

 

 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/25/us-gdp-q1-2020-final-reading.html

 

Quote

U.S. GDP fell at a 5% rate in the first quarter, and the worse is likely on the way

 

Why is the worst likely on the way?

27 minutes ago, KJP said:

Why is the worst likely on the way?

 

Quote

Economists are forecasting a much bigger GDP drop of around 30% for the current April-June period.

 

Q1 included two months with no impact of shutdowns/quarantines.  April-June activity is likely to be suppressed even more.

Sobering. 

 

Nearly half of American adults are now unemployed

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/nearly-half-of-american-adults-are-now-unemployed/ar-BB167gf0?ocid=st

welcome back shoppers ... ugh!:

 

https://therealdeal.com/2020/06/25/small-talk-welcome-back-shoppers-everything-is-going-to-be-fine/?utm_source=internal&utm_medium=after_article&utm_campaign=related_article

13 hours ago, Cleburger said:

Sobering. 

 

Nearly half of American adults are now unemployed

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/nearly-half-of-american-adults-are-now-unemployed/ar-BB167gf0?ocid=st

The headline is at first sobering, but then when you think about it it isn't as bad as it sounds. There was never 100% of the adult population employed and in early 2020 it was at about 64%. A huge drop no doubt from 64 to 52% employed, but not surprising given all that has happened since January.

NYC commercial property sales fell by more than 50% in the second quarter from $7.6 bilion last year to $3.6 billion this year. The second half of the year is looking equally bleak. NYC, which taxes commercial property sales at 2.65%, is expected to lose about $400 million in taxes as a result.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-triggers-steep-drop-in-new-york-city-commercial-property-sales-11594047809

Boeing has lost more than 800 orders for the 737 MAX this year

 

Though Boeing now anticipates U.S. federal approval to unground its 737 MAX in September, company data released Tuesday shows that in the first half of this year the manufacturer lost just over 800 orders for the troubled airplane.

 

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/boeing-has-lost-more-than-800-orders-for-the-737-max-this-year/

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/q2-gdp-us-economy-coronavirus-pandemic-consumer-171558880.html

 

Quote

Q2 GDP: US economy contracted by worst-ever 32.9% in Q2, crushed by coronavirus lockdowns

 

3 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/q2-gdp-us-economy-coronavirus-pandemic-consumer-171558880.html

 

 

are we great again?

Busted Retailers Use Bankruptcy to Break Leases by the Thousands

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-06/busted-retailers-use-bankruptcy-to-break-leases-by-the-thousands (monthly free article limit)

 

With the pandemic intensifying the plight of U.S. retailers, companies from J. Crew Group Inc. to the owner of Ann Taylor are using Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings to quickly get out of costly, long-term leases and shutter thousands of stores.

 

By seeking court protection, firms like Neiman Marcus Group Inc. and the parent company of Men’s Wearhouse avoid the headache of protracted negotiations with individual landlords. But the moves threaten to upend huge swaths of the real estate market and the half-trillion dollar market for commercial mortgage-backed securities.

 

“This is now black-letter law -- a debtor can cram down a landlord,” said Melanie Cyganowski, a former bankruptcy judge who’s now a partner at law firm Otterbourg PC. “If this becomes a tsunami of retailers rejecting their leases, it’s going to trigger another part of the sea change -- the mortgages held by the landlords.”

 

As bankrupt firms like J.C. Penney Co. and Brooks Brothers Group Inc. look to jettison leases, landlords are already feeling the consequences. CBL & Associates Properties Inc., owner of more than 100 shopping centers in the U.S., is preparing its own bankruptcy filing after rent collections cratered. And 16% of retail property loans bundled into CMBS were delinquent in July, according to research firm Trepp.

 

==================================================

 

Bloomberg's monthly article limit is fairly strict but there are some good graphs and data in the rest of that article.  If you don't use Bloomberg that much and/or you're with an employer or university with an institutional subscription, I think it's a good one.

 

As I mentioned elsewhere (maybe earlier in this thread, maybe elsewhere), this has been a strange year in bankruptcy filings.  The massive federal stimulus has resulted in consumer filings dropping dramatically from March through July (and it's obviously too early in August to tell), but corporate filings have surged, with retail being one of the leading affected sectors.  The knock-on effect of that into commercial real estate, from the landlords losing their tenants with little or no hope of replacing them (and likely having to give others significant cuts on rent) is a logical next step.

^ All this on top of the already massively over-saturated commercial real estate market in the US. 

1 hour ago, Gramarye said:

 

As I mentioned elsewhere (maybe earlier in this thread, maybe elsewhere), this has been a strange year in bankruptcy filings.  The massive federal stimulus has resulted in consumer filings dropping dramatically from March through July (and it's obviously too early in August to tell), but corporate filings have surged, with retail being one of the leading affected sectors.  The knock-on effect of that into commercial real estate, from the landlords losing their tenants with little or no hope of replacing them (and likely having to give others significant cuts on rent) is a logical next step.

 

If there are bundled securities with commercial debt, we could be facing another 2008 like meltdown.  

^ CMBS

4 hours ago, Cleburger said:

 

If there are bundled securities with commercial debt, we could be facing another 2008 like meltdown.  

 

There are.

 

That said, most banks aren't as vulnerable today as they were in 2008.  Leverage ratios are higher than they were in 2017 but still nothing like 2007.  Remember, it wasn't just investments going bad that caused the credit crisis in 2008 that precipitated the Great Recession.  Investments go bad all the time.  It was the fact that the owners (including many of the country's largest banks, as well as major investment banks and insurance companies that are often counterparties to big deals) had no margin for error, and these were supposed to be AAA-rated securities (as safe as U.S. government debt, basically) that wouldn't need much margin for error.

 

I don't think we're back to that level of recklessness yet, and if we aren't now, we won't be anytime soon because people are getting more cautious now, not less.

 

Don't get me wrong, I still wouldn't actually invest in securities backed by notes and mortgages on malls or other retail space.  But I wouldn't have done that in 2010 or 2015, either.  If the issue is the spillover effects, I would look less at the derivative effects (consequences of markdowns of the securities backed by the notes secured by the mortgages) and more at the simple, direct ones (foreclosure on the mortgages themselves).

There was actually a fairly strong B&M revival from 2012-2015 but it died off again.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/20/economy/unemployment-benefits-coronavirus/index.html

 

Quote

Another 1.1 million Americans filed initial claims for unemployment benefits on a seasonally adjusted basis last week, dashing economists' hopes for a second-straight week with fewer than 1 million claims.

 

Economists were optimistic that the US jobs market would be on a steady trajectory toward recovery. But last week's claims exceeded forecasts after the previous week's report was the first below 1 million since March, the Department of Labor reported Thursday.

 

I thought cutting UI benefits was supposed to encourage people to take jobs that don't exist...and now we're finding out that's not how it works??

^People really want STUFF right now. STUFF is sold out a lot of places. Since we re-oriented our economy to taprooms and restaurants instead of stuff when you take away those things you find out that people want stuff again. It's a lot harder to bring back that stuff capacity/jobs than it is to add capacity/staff at bars and restaurants. Especially since a lot of stuff is made overseas. And companies are reluctant to do it anyway if they fear that a year from now it's all music festivals and escape rooms instead of stuff again.

Edited August 20, 20204 yr by GCrites80s

 

On 8/7/2020 at 3:22 PM, Gramarye said:

It was the fact that the owners (including many of the country's largest banks, as well as major investment banks and insurance companies that are often counterparties to big deals) had no margin for error, and these were supposed to be AAA-rated securities (as safe as U.S. government debt, basically) that wouldn't need much margin for error.

 

I don't think we're back to that level of recklessness yet, and if we aren't now, we won't be anytime soon because people are getting more cautious now, not less.

How is the layperson supposed to know how "reckless" the bankers are? When they are reckless they hide it and lie.

The retail reckoning continues, with one of my favorite discount retailers, though obviously not one that I've bought much from since 2007 when I moved back to Ohio:

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/10/business/century-21-bankruptcy-closing/index.html

 

Century 21 files for bankruptcy and will close all of its stores

 

=============================

 

I got an Ermenegildo Zegna shirt at Century 21 one time that lasted me through many a job interview before becoming, many years later, an unfortunate casualty of a certain incident involving gravity and red wine.

It isn't being discussed much, but by the middle of October we will probably see the unemployment numbers skyrocketing as the PPP money runs out. 

 

 

Restaurants and bars only got PPP money based on wages, not tips, so they didn't get nearly as much per worker as non-tipped businesses.

Meanwhile, many places are struggling to find workers since there is no motivation for anyone to get off the couch until the spigot gets turned off.  

31 minutes ago, jmecklenborg said:

Meanwhile, many places are struggling to find workers since there is no motivation for anyone to get off the couch until the spigot gets turned off.  

 

"Many places" as in employers with low skill jobs who cannot find immigrants anymore? 

Or do you expect a first officer with a major airline to work in the fields in lieu of a $150K/year job?  

 

Many of these airline employees etc are high skill and aren't just going to work at McDonalds.  

1 hour ago, GCrites80s said:

Restaurants and bars only got PPP money based on wages, not tips, so they didn't get nearly as much per worker as non-tipped businesses.

Ridiculous that we still pay bar and restaurant so much less than non-tipped businesses.  Add 15% to every bill, "tip included," and pay all workers a living wage.

 

40 minutes ago, jmecklenborg said:

Meanwhile, many places are struggling to find workers since there is no motivation for anyone to get off the couch until the spigot gets turned off.  

 

"Many places" are "struggling to find workers" because they don't pay enough or don't offer benefits (or both).

1 hour ago, GCrites80s said:

Restaurants and bars only got PPP money based on wages, not tips, so they didn't get nearly as much per worker as non-tipped businesses.

 

There are many more unemployed than just restaurant and bar workers.   Hotels, convention centers, cruise ships, entertainment industry....

I went out for dinner last Saturday and was surprised at how crowded it was.

52 minutes ago, Cleburger said:

Many of these airline employees etc are high skill and aren't just going to work at McDonalds.  

 

Why not?  I don't get why people who lose their professional class jobs refuse to go get a job.  When I was laid off from my teaching job in 2009 I went and got a job delivering pizzas immediately.  One of my brothers lost his sales job back in April or May and has been slinging packages at a warehouse every night since.  He tells me they can't get people and they keep asking him to come on full-time.  I see help wanted signs all over the place and guys holding signs in front of staffing places.   

 

 

45 minutes ago, Foraker said:

"Many places" are "struggling to find workers" because they don't pay enough or don't offer benefits (or both).

 

People aren't desperate for money thanks to all of the free money that's been thrown at them.  The pawn shops aren't overflowing with electric guitars and peloton bikes.  

11 minutes ago, jmecklenborg said:

 

People aren't desperate for money thanks to all of the free money that's been thrown at them.  The pawn shops aren't overflowing with electric guitars and peloton bikes.  

People aren't desperate.  They are being treated too good. Lol 

Just announced today....28 THOUSAND 

 

Disney is laying off 28,000 employees as pandemic hammers its theme parks

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/29/media/disney-parks-layoffs/index.html

2 hours ago, freefourur said:

People aren't desperate.  They are being treated too good. Lol 

 

Or they are not willing to risk their lives for part-time minimum-wage no-benefits.

And many of the companies with those low-wage jobs won't take someone so overqualified because they know they'll jump ship as soon as possible.  Assistant night manager isn't a career path for them.  Those jobs likely pay less than unemployment too.  

3 hours ago, jmecklenborg said:

 

People aren't desperate for money thanks to all of the free money that's been thrown at them.  The pawn shops aren't overflowing with electric guitars and peloton bikes.  

 

They were during quarantine. The Columbus TV news interviewed pawn shops at the time and they said they were getting more stuff in than they had ever seen.

2 hours ago, Foraker said:

 

Or they are not willing to risk their lives for part-time minimum-wage no-benefits.

 

???  risk their lives  ???

 

And minimum wage jobs barely exist.  Pretty much everything out there in Ohio is at least $14/hr these days. 

 

2 hours ago, jjakucyk said:

And many of the companies with those low-wage jobs won't take someone so overqualified because they know they'll jump ship as soon as possible.  Assistant night manager isn't a career path for them.  Those jobs likely pay less than unemployment too.  

 

I have worked a ton of working-class jobs and have worked with a lot of guys who are overqualified for their jobs.  A lot of people stay at jobs they're overqualified for because they - gasp - actually like their jobs and/or the schedule and the location of the job fit in well with other aspects of their life.  For example, someone might stay at a job they're overqualified for because they check on an elderly relative who lives nearby every day. 

 

There are also a lot of guys out there working two jobs because they're stuck paying child support/alimony and they want the cash tips because they can hide that income from the ex. 

5 minutes ago, jmecklenborg said:

 

I have worked a ton of working-class jobs and have worked with a lot of guys who are overqualified for their jobs.  A lot of people stay at jobs they're overqualified for because they - gasp - actually like their jobs and/or the schedule and the location of the job fit in well with other aspects of their life.  For example, someone might stay at a job they're overqualified for because they check on an elderly relative who lives nearby every day. 

 

There are also a lot of guys out there working two jobs because they're stuck paying child support/alimony and they want the cash tips because they can hide that income from the ex. 

An old law school friend of mine spent 2 years working between 2nd and 3rd shift in a ketchup factory while he was working during the day to establish his business. After a couple years he was able to quit and hiave his loans paid off. He was vastly overqualified to be filling ketchup packages but he said it was one of the most enriching experiences he has had. 

27 minutes ago, jmecklenborg said:

 

???  risk their lives  ???

 

 

There is still a pandemic happening.

1 hour ago, freefourur said:

There is still a pandemic happening.

 

Wear a mask.  Tens of millions of people have gone to work every day this year and not gotten sick.