On 10/28/2022 at 4:33 PM, Gramarye said:

You say "just 1% of the population," but that's not the right framing; you're talking about somewhere close to 50% of new population (3.3M immigrants, 3.6M live births and dropping).  I think you and @LlamaLawyer look at immigration through far too rose-colored glasses if you're bandying about numbers like that with a straight face.  Maybe you don't believe the kind of civil unrest you'd generate from a ratio like that, or maybe you think that the people who would be anxious about such a ratio and be part of the backlash against it are simply bad people and deserve to be either ignored or outright suppressed, unrest or not.  (Though of course, thinking that way is exactly how you get civil unrest and backlash.)  Either way, that kind of number is a political nonstarter.

Political nonstarter suggests that the politics can be changed.  Women got the vote, etc.

 

I don't know what history suggests about unrest vs. immigration rate and at what rate that becomes a problem.  The US is one of the few that has a long history of actively encouraging (limited) immigration.

 

I suggest that the "unrest" you fear (that Republican politicians will stoke, of course, because "fear" is their stock in trade) can be greatly minimized by doing a better job of integrating immigrants into society.  We should pay immigrants to help them assimilate.  Paid English classes, help them find housing, learn how housing and banking and such work in the US, all the unwritten rules of American society that can help a newcomer navigate with less friction.  The result is not just new bodies, new taxpayers and consumers, but better and more productive citizens than our current policy of opening the door and then mostly letting them sink or swim on their own.  But yes, *gasp*, more government spending may be a political nonstarter.

 

We are already seeing a lot of low-skill and low-pay jobs going unfilled.  Raising the pay may fill some of those jobs, but in a tight labor market people will have options to avoid the worst, dirtiest, hardest, and lowest-paying jobs.  Some, or many, job openings are not going to be filled.  If countries have been unsuccessful in raising birth rates, and we are not going to increase immigration, shouldn't we be planning for how to manage a declining population and ensuring that the most-necessary jobs are filled?  The last year of the boomer generation is 1964, and they'll be 70 in 2034 -- just 12 years from now, and most of them will retire before then.  Given that it seems to be the American Way, maybe we'll just wait until 2034 to think about what to do....

On 10/29/2022 at 10:22 PM, X said:

There are 8 billion people on this planet.  How is that not enough?  Why do we need higher birthrates?

 

Because the high birthrates are in the wrong places. If everyone in those places had the means or the agency to move somewhere undersupplied with labor we definitely wouldn't need more people. At any rate, cries for a higher one in the U.S. do have a tinge of wanting to depress the value of human capital and make them work in unpleasant situations. 

On 10/29/2022 at 10:22 PM, X said:

There are 8 billion people on this planet.  How is that not enough?  Why do we need higher birthrates?

 

Two reasons that I can think of.  Libertarians and conservatives have large segments of their groups that are racist so...

 

1) not enough white births - that is, there ARE high birth rates.  they're just occurring in parts of Asia and Africa they don't deem "desirable" enough.

 

And 2) capitalism - our current economic system dictates that the next quarter/year/etc MUST be higher/more than the previous cycle.  You can add in social security in here as well - that system will collapse if you don't have enough people paying into vs those who are benefitting from it (i.e. seniors).

 

When you have fewer people to spend money, then capitalism says that's bad.  What happens if Apple sells 1m fewer iPhones because there's just 1m fewer people?  And on down the line.  Capitalism is a system of a rampant, unfettered consumption.  What happens when demand overall in the economy starts to dip just purely because there's slightly fewer people in the system?

2 minutes ago, DarkandStormy said:

 

Two reasons that I can think of.  Libertarians and conservatives have large segments of their groups that are racist so...

 

1) not enough white births - that is, there ARE high birth rates.  they're just occurring in parts of Asia and Africa they don't deem "desirable" enough.

 

And 2) capitalism - our current economic system dictates that the next quarter/year/etc MUST be higher/more than the previous cycle.  You can add in social security in here as well - that system will collapse if you don't have enough people paying into vs those who are benefitting from it (i.e. seniors).

 

Just an FYI:

https://www.lp.org/issues/immigration/

Libertarians believe that people should be able to travel freely as long as they are peaceful. We welcome immigrants who come seeking a better life.

17 hours ago, surfohio said:

 

Just an FYI:

https://www.lp.org/issues/immigration/

Libertarians believe that people should be able to travel freely as long as they are peaceful. We welcome immigrants who come seeking a better life.

 

I'm not referring to the Libertarian Platform, more so those who refer to themselves as "libertarians" but basically hold 95% of Republican viewpoints.  Basically, Republicans who don't like the MAGA label.

The pandemic tested and reshaped the hearts of American cities.

By German Lopez

October 30, 2022

 

‘Eerie quiet’

American downtowns are working to recover after the Covid pandemic upended their roles as business centers and community hubs. To find out how these efforts are going, Times reporters recently visited the downtown areas in Washington, D.C.; Hartford, Conn.; Salt Lake City; Seattle and elsewhere. They discovered that some are struggling while others have come back even stronger. I asked Mike Baker, who’s based in Seattle and contributed to the project, about what they saw.

 

German: I was struck by the emptiness in Cincinnati, where I live, during the height of the pandemic. Even today, the city can still feel much quieter than it did before Covid. Is this common across the country?

 

Mike: There’s definitely an eerie quiet. Some neighborhoods are well short of the vibrancy they had a few years ago. There are boarded-up windows. In some cities, there’s this feeling of an empty sidewalk where you’re used to having larger crowds.

So people will come downtown and feel like there’s nobody or very few people there. You lose the sense that this is a gathering place for the community. And that contributes to people not really wanting to come back.

 

What did the pandemic bring?

 

There are positive and negative trends out there. So many downtowns have embraced outdoor dining and expanded restaurant patios and have become more walking-friendly. A lot of midsize cities, like Salt Lake City, have seen explosive growth around new businesses and attractions downtown. Some cities have made investments to draw in more people, and they’re actually seeing more visitors than they did before the pandemic.

 

At the same time, major urban centers still have less commuter foot traffic than they did before the pandemic because so many people are still working from home. So some businesses don’t have the traffic to survive. Some downtown neighborhoods are struggling with crime and homelessness. And housing affordability seems to be on everybody’s mind at this point, especially here in Seattle.

 

Seattle seems like an interesting case, because Amazon is headquartered downtown yet is arguably deepening some downtowns’ problems by making it easier to shop online instead of in person.

 

Yeah. Even before the pandemic, Amazon’s explosive growth heavily contributed to housing shortfalls in Seattle. Then all this infrastructure was built to support the tech workers at the South Lake Union neighborhood, where Amazon is. During the pandemic, many of these tech workers started working remotely, and all these businesses suddenly had very few people to serve.

These are tech workers with good incomes who are no longer coming to that part of the city regularly. That’s a huge setback. But Seattle might be better positioned than some cities. It has cruise ship terminals, which bring visitors from all over the country on summer weekends. There’s a waterfront under development that connects the Pike Place Market up north down to football and baseball stadiums in the south. There’s an expanding convention center and a new N.H.L. team that plays in the area.

 

You mentioned crime and homelessness. How much are they playing a role in downtowns’ problems?

 

You certainly hear about both a lot from residents, visitors and business owners. I was in Oregon recently to report on the governor’s race, and all the candidates were talking about how unsafe downtown Portland has become. Yet even there, the variation is remarkable: I could walk through the waterfront, and people were walking their dogs, jogging or just enjoying the scenery. But if you turn just a couple blocks from the waterfront into the Old Town neighborhood, you can see widespread homelessness, drug use. There are people lying motionless on the sidewalk or in the middle of the road.

 

There is this tension. Officials talk about trying to build more affordable housing and provide more services for drug addiction and mental health, but that takes time. But there’s a sense of urgency — that we need to do something to get people back downtown, and locals want quick solutions to homelessness.

 

Considering those problems, are cities making progress on revitalizing downtowns?

 

Some places are. One place I visited was Nampa, Idaho, a city of 100,000 people west of Boise. Years ago, the city had this really vibrant downtown with retail outlets that brought people from around the area. But then a mall was built on the edge of town. And then an even bigger mall was built farther away in Boise. Then Amazon came along, popularizing online shopping. And then the pandemic.

 

The city started working to reverse the trends — to build a community gathering place. But instead of building back in the retail-focused style of the old downtown, today’s efforts are more about restaurants than shops, and more emphasis on people living there instead of driving downtown. It’s different, but it’s about adapting to the changes and finding the right mix to make this spot appealing again. So far, it appears to be working.

 

Read The Times’s story on downtowns, and see photos of both vibrant and struggling urban centers.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/26/us/us-cities-downtown-chicago-seattle.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20221030&instance_id=76075&nl=the-morning&regi_id=102158875&segment_id=111512&te=1&user_id=c9e72708f4bc66e6d64b23c3b36509c8

Edited November 1, 20222 yr by surfohio

 

Sounds like someone has an agenda. Wells Fargo said they're getting out of the mortgage lending biz. So it follows rhat their mortgage business is down 90 percent...

 

 

 

46 minutes ago, KJP said:

Sounds like someone has an agenda. Wells Fargo said they're getting out of the mortgage lending biz. So it follows rhat their mortgage business is down 90 percent...

 

 

 

Idk whether we’re in a recession right now, but the 3 month and ten year treasuries are very inverted, which can mean one of three things:

 

a. We’re about to have a recession.

 

b. Something really weird is happening that the market doesn’t understand.

 

c. We’re about to have a recession AND something really weird is happening that the market doesn’t understand.

 

I’m in camp C but who knows at this point.

 

2 hours ago, LlamaLawyer said:

Idk whether we’re in a recession right now, but the 3 month and ten year treasuries are very inverted, which can mean one of three things:

 

a. We’re about to have a recession.

 

b. Something really weird is happening that the market doesn’t understand.

 

c. We’re about to have a recession AND something really weird is happening that the market doesn’t understand.

 

I’m in camp C but who knows at this point.

Based upon historical cycles, we are overdue for a recession.  Also, credit card debt is rising significantly.  If holiday spending is down, it could be another indicator.  Retailers like Walmart, Kohls and Target are drowning in inventory.  Nationally, inventory is so high that that there isn't enough space to store it.

But how is that amount of inventory relative to the past? During COVID the JIT system broke down and stores didn't want to be in that position again. Is it a lot relative to 2005 amounts? 2017 amounts where they had an OK amount of inventory but not enough people to stock the shelves? 2017 inventory pales in comparison to 1990s inventory levels where philosophies were much more supply-side. Wal-Mart was still working on its JIT goals in the 1990s trying to get inventory down. Now there is distrust toward JIT due to lost sales during COVID and supply problems for many, many things. In fact, I would suggest getting rid of federal inventory tax (which is 25% of wholesale inventory value on January 1) to discourage JIT and replacing it with another corporate tax of identical revenue potential. JIT only works during pax times and no other times and takes to long to ramp back into service where there are issues. The economics of JIT did indeed work for the most part from 2003-2017 then in 2017 the size of the labor market started to shrink significantly enough that the fragility of JIT began to show itself with not enough people to drive the trucks and stock the shelves when the inventory arrived at the destination.

On 11/12/2022 at 4:46 PM, LlamaLawyer said:

 

Edited November 14, 20222 yr by VintageLife

I'm in B. I think we can have a recession at any time but can't say we actually will. And if we do it will be weaksauce.

4 hours ago, KJP said:

Sounds like someone has an agenda. Wells Fargo said they're getting out of the mortgage lending biz. So it follows rhat their mortgage business is down 90 percent...

 

I thought it was so weird the WF has been hassling to refinance my mortgage in the last 4-5 months. It's like, do they think people are unaware what's happened with interest rates lol. 

12 minutes ago, GCrites80s said:

But how is that amount of inventory relative to the past? During COVID the JIT system broke down and stores didn't want to be in that position again. Is it a lot relative to 2005 amounts? 2017 amounts where they had an OK amount of inventory but not enough people to stock the shelves? 2017 inventory pales in comparison to 1990s inventory levels where philosophies were much more supply-side. Wal-Mart was still working on its JIT goals in the 1990s trying to get inventory down. Now there is distrust toward JIT due to lost sales during COVID and supply problems for many, many things. In fact, I would suggest getting rid of federal inventory tax (which is 25% of wholesale inventory value on January 1) to discourage JIT and replacing it with another corporate tax of identical revenue potential. JIT only works during pax times and no other times and takes to long to ramp back into service where there are issues. The economics of JIT did indeed work for the most part from 2003-2017 then in 2017 the size of the labor market started to shrink significantly enough that the fragility of JIT began to show itself with not enough people to drive the trucks and stock the shelves when the inventory arrived at the destination.

Elimination of the inventory tax won't matter much to retailers who want to unload inventory.  They are still stuck with storing inventory someplace.  May help with the bottom line, but new orders will sharply decline until that inventory gets way down.  If orders stop, it will translate to job losses.

10 minutes ago, surfohio said:

 

I thought it was so weird the WF has been hassling to refinance my mortgage in the last 4-5 months. It's like, do they think people are unaware what's happened with interest rates lol. 

These lenders make nice money when it comes to refinancing.  Even with significantly higher interest rates, refinancing for a new 30-year loan may be attractive enough if the new monthly payment amount drops, especially if they are quite a few years into their current loan.  For those who are having a tough time making ends meet with inflation, dropping that monthly payment amount could help a lot, even if does mean a new 30-year loan. 

 

If Wells Fargo is trying to get out of the mortgage lending business, maybe they see what is coming and they want to get out before another collapse occurs. 

12 hours ago, LifeLongClevelander said:

If Wells Fargo is trying to get out of the mortgage lending business, maybe they see what is coming and they want to get out before another collapse occurs. 

Certainly commercial real estate has to be a boat anchor right now.   I suppose that sector could tank the entire business. 

1 hour ago, Cleburger said:

Certainly commercial real estate has to be a boat anchor right now.   I suppose that sector could tank the entire business. 

I wonder what will still be coming regarding the contraction in the retail sector.  Pre-pandemic, there were reports of the amount of excessive retail space in this country (the largest percentage of any other country by far). I fully expect there will be significant contraction in that area as well.  If a new retailer does come into an area, it will come at the expense of the existing ones.

16 hours ago, VintageLife said:

I feel like B could be explained by insane corporate greed. This is what happens when capitalism goes unchecked for a long time. When corporations are taking all the money, people will have less to spend on the crap they are making. 
 

I feel corporate greed is at an all time high, and shows no sign of slowing. 

How does this relate to interest rate expectations? If record corporate profits are going to continue for a long time, why does the market think interest rates are about to nosedive?

The Fed probably will ease interest rates once inflation gets back in the 3s but I wouldn't call it a nosedive. 

They may ease rate increases, but I don't see then lowering rates. Historically federal interest rates run 1.6% more than inflation (taking into account a few blips here and there).

 

That all dramatically changed during the 2008 recession when those numbers by and large inverted due to the Fed desperately trying to stimulate the economy. Then we all got a bit greedy and shortsighted with the stock markets. And it didn't help a certain orange traitor was pressuring the Fed to maintain unhealthy, artificial rates when the economy was rebounding. 

 

We need the numbers to flip back to their natural states. 3.3% inflation and 4.9% interest is the historic average. Seems like a decent barometer of a relatively stable economy. 

What I think is a little odd is the Fed wants to target 2-2.5% inflation even though historical is 3.2-3.3%. Going that low is a little aggressive and may be counterproductive. Just because we were "used to" 2% or lower inflation from 2003-2019 doesn't mean we should push to go below historical since the 2003-2019 economy really wasn't all that good for the economy as a whole -- Wall Street liked it the most but job prospects and Main Street lagged.

The Federal Open Market Committee made that 2% determination in January 2012 based on employment, inflation and long-term interest rates.

 

Who knows... 

There's a camp that believes inflation will eventually have to settle in around 4% or so for years to decades so the U.S. can escape from its unprecedented peacetime debt burden.

21 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said:

There's a camp that believes inflation will eventually have to settle in around 4% or so for years to decades so the U.S. can escape from its unprecedented peacetime debt burden.

In other words, inflation is better than special taxes to fund our wars.

41 minutes ago, Foraker said:

In other words, inflation is better than special taxes to fund our wars.

Alas, that's how it has usually worked since WW2.  A 5-7% interest rate is tolerable and not unduly punishing.  Money has a cost and it's about time the borrowers start paying it instead of the pension funds and savers.

2 hours ago, Foraker said:

In other words, inflation is better than special taxes to fund our wars.

It’s certainly easier for politicians to hide the ball when policies are causing inflation as opposed to austerity/tax increases.

Today's WSJ says tech companies are preparing to shed 30 million sq ft of office space nationwide, not as a result of WFH but because of layoffs.

 

Meta, Lyft, Salesforce and Other Tech Firms Dump Office Space as They Downsize - WSJ 

6 hours ago, Dougal said:

Today's WSJ says tech companies are preparing to shed 30 million sq ft of office space nationwide, not as a result of WFH but because of layoffs.

 

Meta, Lyft, Salesforce and Other Tech Firms Dump Office Space as They Downsize - WSJ 

 

If you ever thought to yourself, "San Francisco is so beautiful, but there's no way I could ever afford to live here!" just wait a year or so.  There will be bargains.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-ftx-ceo-says-hes-never-seen-such-a-complete-absence-of-trustworthy-information-and-he-presided-over-enrons-bankruptcy-11668691648?siteid=yhoof2

 

An auditor in the metaverse. No proper tracking of cash or employees. New FTX CEO describes Sam Bankman-Fried’s haphazard

 

Well, crypto investors wanted something decentralized and with limited regulations and interventions, then that's what they got. Fools and their money... something something departed.

17 hours ago, X said:

 

If you ever thought to yourself, "San Francisco is so beautiful, but there's no way I could ever afford to live here!" just wait a year or so.  There will be bargains.

Yes, but the prices never go down to "affordable"; they go only to "less unaffordable."  My neighborhood of the Wash DC area has already seen a 10% decrease in sales prices from the peak, according to whiney real estate salespeople. 

23 minutes ago, Dougal said:

Yes, but the prices never go down to "affordable"; they go only to "less unaffordable."  My neighborhood of the Wash DC area has already seen a 10% decrease in sales prices from the peak, according to whiney real estate salespeople. 

 

Any established agent was selling a house each week in 2021.  The mortgage brokers were working 24/7.  

 

Housing for sale still isn't down in terms of total financed amount because of interest rate increases.

18 hours ago, X said:

 

If you ever thought to yourself, "San Francisco is so beautiful, but there's no way I could ever afford to live here!" just wait a year or so.  There will be bargains.

 

Not sure I agree with that. Average home in San Francisco is $1.5 million. Average home in LA is $955,000. Average home in NYC is $785,000. Average home in Phoenix is $410,000. Average home in Houston is $275,000.

 

We're talking about 50% home value destruction to get to NYC prices. 50% crash is bigger than the 2008 crash was in San Francisco. That's kind of like the apocalypse. And even then homes would still be 3x more expensive than Houston.

2 hours ago, Dougal said:

Yes, but the prices never go down to "affordable"; they go only to "less unaffordable."  My neighborhood of the Wash DC area has already seen a 10% decrease in sales prices from the peak, according to whiney real estate salespeople. 

 

1 hour ago, LlamaLawyer said:

 

Not sure I agree with that. Average home in San Francisco is $1.5 million. Average home in LA is $955,000. Average home in NYC is $785,000. Average home in Phoenix is $410,000. Average home in Houston is $275,000.

 

We're talking about 50% home value destruction to get to NYC prices. 50% crash is bigger than the 2008 crash was in San Francisco. That's kind of like the apocalypse. And even then homes would still be 3x more expensive than Houston.

 

You guys got me!  It was a joke, but truly, San Francisco prices can drop 66% and it'll still be a pricey place to live.

There is some good news for construction.  While interest rates are going up, everything else seems to be coming down over the last six months:

 

Lumber (top) and copper (lower) prices over the last six months.  Rebar and concrete are similar.

 

EDIT: Concrete prices have NOT declined, but have remained stable.

 

 

I don't see all of this as bad. In fact it could be quite good for the USA and especially Ohio/Great Lakes region. We need more workers/immigrants...

 

Top economist Mohamed El-Erian says we’re not just headed for another recession, but a ‘profound economic and financial shift’

The former CEO of PIMCO sees three trends that suggest a transformation in the global economy is under way.

https://fortune.com/2022/11/23/how-bad-economy-recession-top-economist-mohamed-el-erian-federal-reserve/amp/

^ Even this article doesn't broach the topic of rapidly increasing automation, and its effects on the future economy.

 

However, I learned a new word:  TRILEMMA.  

Edited November 24, 20222 yr by urb-a-saurus
Added ^

For the longest time, there was a fear that automation would mean massive unemployment but now the economy has been proven to be capable of producing an unlimited amount of blue-collar work. Since the workforce is trained to do white collar work since the adults told them to do that instead of blue-collar work when they were kids then didn't have kids themselves. Due to this, the supply of labor for most blue-collar jobs has dried up yet more and more new blue-collar jobs open up every day. Due to that, automation is now not only welcome but needed.

 

In a nutshell, it's like how they are opening up a 3rd Taco Bell in Chillicothe even though the two existing ones there can't even find enough people to stay open regular hours.

I've already been seeing the talking heads debating the strength of the economy as it pertains to Black Friday and holiday shopping.   As someone who participated today both at brick and mortar stores and online, all I can say is the retail industry is ill-prepared for this.   

 

Cashiers are not trained in the stores, and no one knows where anything is.   I got the sense that these people were hired yesterday and thrown to the wolves for Black Friday.  

 

After giving up on that, I returned home to shop online for some things for my kids, and encountered website glitches all around.  Even worse, the ENTIRE Nike website and ordering system is down today (couldn't order via web or phone).   How can a multinational company like Nike have their entire system go down on a day like this?   I'm sure they'll blame Joe Biden....

 

 

 

 

Nike had some big release this week and allegedly reseller bots crashed the site. If you ask me these outages might be performative in order to increase hype for the drops. A tactic they learned from the trading card industry which has had a heavy influence on the sneaker world over the past five years or so.

11 hours ago, GCrites80s said:

Nike had some big release this week and allegedly reseller bots crashed the site. If you ask me these outages might be performative in order to increase hype for the drops. A tactic they learned from the trading card industry which has had a heavy influence on the sneaker world over the past five years or so.

Seems like a risky tactic around Black Friday when middle aged parents are just looking to buy regular ole sneakers for their college aged kids.    

That's how I feel. But many of these releases target sneakerheads. That kind of drama creates the kind of buzz they want. They really want everyone to get their app.

 

The FT today has an article about "zombie" office buildings, as @KJP has been calling them for years, in New York City.  Apparently, the office buildings there are still 50% vacant in terms of workers, although not yet in terms of square footage leased.  Building values are weakening based on a couple of recent sales. Rolling over debt at today's interest rates and declining asset valuation is difficult for property owners. Meta has walked out on a 250K sq ft lease in Hudson Yards.  Vornado (NYC office bldg REIT) stock down 50%. The FT predicts a grim 2023 for NYC real estate.

 

https://forum.urbanohio.com/topic/7623-us-economy-news-amp-discussion/page/108/#comment-1084038

 

Could someone explain how deflation would be bad when many things are priced as high as they are right now?

5 minutes ago, Oldmanladyluck said:

Could someone explain how deflation would be bad when many things are priced as high as they are right now?

Anybody who owes money would be hurt.  He borrowed cheap dollars and would have to repay with expensive dollars.  Conversely, the thrifty would benefit. 

If a company is too big to fail or needs to be bailed out in some capacity, then it should be partially or fully nationalized. 

 

Biden should have done so for the railroads rather than making a strike illegal, just as Trump with companies accepting PPP loans, just as Obama with Big Auto, just as W with the banks. You want our money, we own your company. End of story!

 

All four men blew it even if three had the best of intentions. God forbid America acts like an actual developed country once in a while.