December 14, 20222 yr Interest rates returning to December 2007 levels. November CPI was "only" 7.1% so perhaps the Fed is making the right moves.
January 15, 20232 yr Not sure if this has been mentioned in this forum before, but has anyone ever thought of the billions the federal government gives to disaster prone communities around our country? Billions going to communities in Florida, North Carolina, Louisiana, Texas, California etc. There are a lot of communities in these areas get their infrastructure rebuilt every ten to twenty years, meanwhile up here a lot of our infrastructure is reaching and passing the century mark. Now obviously that is a broad generalization, but personally I feel it is unfair the level of public assistance these areas get from time to time. Essentially getting rewarded for building cities prone to fires, earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and not ensuring the built environment can withstand those natural and known hazards. What we had up here in the rust belt was essentially an economic disaster that we're still scratching back from. Does anyone think it would be fair if the feds doled out some funds to areas like the rust belt to cover larger infrastructure improvements from time to time? Not a standing subsidy, but things like, this bridge is on the verge of collapse, here is a one time grant of $10MM to get it rebuilt, or here's a billion dollars to replace the lead water pipes in Flint. Just a thought because the current system, which I am sure is way more nuanced that what I summarized, seems unbalanced.
January 15, 20232 yr 9 minutes ago, Mov2Ohio said: Not sure if this has been mentioned in this forum before, but has anyone ever thought of the billions the federal government gives to disaster prone communities around our country? Billions going to communities in Florida, North Carolina, Louisiana, Texas, California etc. There are a lot of communities in these areas get their infrastructure rebuilt every ten to twenty years, meanwhile up here a lot of our infrastructure is reaching and passing the century mark. Now obviously that is a broad generalization, but personally I feel it is unfair the level of public assistance these areas get from time to time. Essentially getting rewarded for building cities prone to fires, earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and not ensuring the built environment can withstand those natural and known hazards. What we had up here in the rust belt was essentially an economic disaster that we're still scratching back from. Does anyone think it would be fair if the feds doled out some funds to areas like the rust belt to cover larger infrastructure improvements from time to time? Not a standing subsidy, but things like, this bridge is on the verge of collapse, here is a one time grant of $10MM to get it rebuilt, or here's a billion dollars to replace the lead water pipes in Flint. Just a thought because the current system, which I am sure is way more nuanced that what I summarized, seems unbalanced. Totally agree on the problem. Not sure of the solution. But it isn't surprising that these areas get massive infusions of cash and also tend to be high growth. We've subsidized the costs of living in these places on the backs of less disaster prone areas in the Midwest and Northeast. Which are, also unsurprisingly, growing slower.
January 15, 20232 yr 3 hours ago, Mov2Ohio said: Not sure if this has been mentioned in this forum before, but has anyone ever thought of the billions the federal government gives to disaster prone communities around our country? Billions going to communities in Florida, North Carolina, Louisiana, Texas, California etc. There are a lot of communities in these areas get their infrastructure rebuilt every ten to twenty years, meanwhile up here a lot of our infrastructure is reaching and passing the century mark. Now obviously that is a broad generalization, but personally I feel it is unfair the level of public assistance these areas get from time to time. Essentially getting rewarded for building cities prone to fires, earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and not ensuring the built environment can withstand those natural and known hazards. What we had up here in the rust belt was essentially an economic disaster that we're still scratching back from. Does anyone think it would be fair if the feds doled out some funds to areas like the rust belt to cover larger infrastructure improvements from time to time? Not a standing subsidy, but things like, this bridge is on the verge of collapse, here is a one time grant of $10MM to get it rebuilt, or here's a billion dollars to replace the lead water pipes in Flint. Just a thought because the current system, which I am sure is way more nuanced that what I summarized, seems unbalanced. Do you have data on per capita infrastructure grants by metro over the last 10 or so years? I looked and can’t find it. I always assumed infrastructure in the south is better because (a) the cities are newer, and (b) they don’t deal with repeated freezing and thawing / road salt, both of which really wreck stuff. I’d be very interested if natural disasters is actually a major cause of better infrastructure.
January 15, 20232 yr 32 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said: Do you have data on per capita infrastructure grants by metro over the last 10 or so years? I looked and can’t find it. I always assumed infrastructure in the south is better because (a) the cities are newer, and (b) they don’t deal with repeated freezing and thawing / road salt, both of which really wreck stuff. I’d be very interested if natural disasters is actually a major cause of better infrastructure. I don't, but I quickly found this press release from FEMA, that shows federal aid, loans and insurance had topped 3 billion dollars to the area affected by last fall's Hurricane Ian. That's 3 billion bucks Northeast Ohio and places like it won't see. 3 billion bucks that southwest Florida will be able use to make everything look brand new. And, it could all happen again next year. https://www.fema.gov/press-release/20221205/federal-support-hurricane-ian-tops-33-billion#:~:text=WASHINGTON -- More than %243.31,help survivors jumpstart their recovery. Edited January 15, 20232 yr by Mov2Ohio
January 15, 20232 yr 17 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said: I always assumed infrastructure in the south is better because (a) the cities are newer, and (b) they don’t deal with repeated freezing and thawing / road salt, both of which really wreck stuff. Now that you mention it I'd really love to see a true cost-benefit analysis of road salt usage. The damage done to property and infrastructure just has to be astronomical.
January 15, 20232 yr 22 minutes ago, surfohio said: Now that you mention it I'd really love to see a true cost-benefit analysis of road salt usage. The damage done to property and infrastructure just has to be astronomical. Not too mention the environmental damage as well.
January 15, 20232 yr https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/12/01/hurricane-ian-was-costliest-disaster-on-record-after-katrina-in-2005.html If this is accurate, I’m sure the FEMA money is just a drop in the bucket compared to what the damage actually is.
January 16, 20232 yr 20 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/12/01/hurricane-ian-was-costliest-disaster-on-record-after-katrina-in-2005.html If this is accurate, I’m sure the FEMA money is just a drop in the bucket compared to what the damage actually is. Whether it is or not, They will have sparkling new communities come this Summer as a result of this disaster.
January 16, 20232 yr 2 hours ago, surfohio said: Now that you mention it I'd really love to see a true cost-benefit analysis of road salt usage. The damage done to property and infrastructure just has to be astronomical. But then people would take the day off from work!
January 16, 20232 yr On 12/8/2022 at 1:29 PM, TBideon said: If a company is too big to fail or needs to be bailed out in some capacity, then it should be partially or fully nationalized. Biden should have done so for the railroads rather than making a strike illegal, just as Trump with companies accepting PPP loans, just as Obama with Big Auto, just as W with the banks. You want our money, we own your company. End of story! All four men blew it even if three had the best of intentions. God forbid America acts like an actual developed country once in a while. Nationalization should never, ever happen except temporarily under the direst of circumstances. The government should not be involved in the economy to that degree. It eventually attempts to replace the principles of economics with those of politics, with toxic results.
January 16, 20232 yr 11 hours ago, LlamaLawyer said: Do you have data on per capita infrastructure grants by metro over the last 10 or so years? I looked and can’t find it. I always assumed infrastructure in the south is better because (a) the cities are newer, and (b) they don’t deal with repeated freezing and thawing / road salt, both of which really wreck stuff. I’d be very interested if natural disasters is actually a major cause of better infrastructure. One of the reasons I'm not a purist libertarian is construction projects such as roads and bridges that are done when they are just a good idea and not yet essential are key to maintaining a base of experienced and skilled contstruction workers available in the event of disaster. So the impact can be both indirect and direct.
January 16, 20232 yr 16 hours ago, LlamaLawyer said: I always assumed infrastructure in the south is better because (a) the cities are newer, and (b) they don’t deal with repeated freezing and thawing / road salt, both of which really wreck stuff. A test of this idea would be roads in parks that are never salted, but those same roads might be built to different specs than ordinary roads.
January 16, 20232 yr Sorta on topic: I swear l read an article years ago that said because tourism is such an important economic element Florida politicians somehow got a law passed that stipulates the Federal government must rebuild their beaches with new sand everytime one of them gets damaged or destroyed by a hurricane. And the rest of us pay for it! What's next? A law mandating they must have sunshine too? Give me a break.
January 16, 20232 yr 2 hours ago, cadmen said: Sorta on topic: I swear l read an article years ago that said because tourism is such an important economic element Florida politicians somehow got a law passed that stipulates the Federal government must rebuild their beaches with new sand everytime one of them gets damaged or destroyed by a hurricane. And the rest of us pay for it! What's next? A law mandating they must have sunshine too? Give me a break. Completely maddening! Especially when a once in a generation storm like Sandy happens and NYC needs money, and all the southern politicians vote against helping a "liberal hellhole."
January 17, 20232 yr I hear the above critiques, but I'm a little skeptical of the implication that hurricanes are really net positive for Florida's infrastructure.
January 17, 20232 yr Speaking from our Ohio experience with tornadoes there is a ton of stuff that never gets fixed after something like that.
January 17, 20232 yr 4 minutes ago, GCrites80s said: Speaking from our Ohio experience with tornadoes there is a ton of stuff that never gets fixed after something like that. And hurricanes, earthquakes etc. are on such a larger scale than tornado damage. We may have some windstorms, icestorms, blizzards, etc. that can damage wires/utility poles, but that is taken care of in a week or two. There are parts of Dade County that got hit by Andrew in 1992 that are still not rebuilt.
January 17, 20232 yr 1 hour ago, Toddguy said: And hurricanes, earthquakes etc. are on such a larger scale than tornado damage. We may have some windstorms, icestorms, blizzards, etc. that can damage wires/utility poles, but that is taken care of in a week or two. There are parts of Dade County that got hit by Andrew in 1992 that are still not rebuilt. New Orleans is roughly 100,000 below its 2005 population.
February 1, 20232 yr A lot of layoffs have been announced in the past month - driven mostly by tech companies. I'll be curious to see Feb & March unemployment numbers. Very Stable Genius
February 1, 20232 yr We threw so much internet at the virus that some layoffs in tech were inevitable. But firing people just because it's cool obviously isn't cool.
February 2, 20232 yr The article also notes that while layoffs have increased somewhat since the spring of 2022, that increase has had a much smaller impact on the US labor market than the large cutback in hiring over the same time period... Job openings surge to 5-month high By Cate Chapman, Editor at LinkedIn News Updated 14 hours ago Job openings shot to a five-month high at the end of last year, the Labor Department reported Wednesday, confounding expectations of slower growth just ahead of an interest-rate decision by the Federal Reserve. There were just over 11 million available positions in December, compared to 10.4 million in the prior month. That's equivalent to about 1.9 openings for every job seeker, close to the all-time high and up from 1.7 in November. The ongoing tightness in the labor market contrasts with growing signs of slowing inflation, including cooler wage growth during the fourth quarter. Companies hired at a slower rate in January, according to ADP data. Private firms added 106,000 employees, down from an upwardly revised 253,000 in December. Wages rose 7.3% year-on-year in January, the same rate as December, ADP reports; workers who switched jobs saw a median increase of 15.4%. MORE https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/job-openings-surge-to-5-month-high-5545372/ "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
February 2, 20232 yr Survey of 10 cities shows office occupancy reached highest point since pandemic began. https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/3840272-survey-of-10-cities-shows-office-occupancy-reached-highest-point-since-pandemic-began/?utm_campaign=TheHill-trending-stories&utm_source=fox8.com&utm_medium=thehill-cross-brand
February 3, 20232 yr Tech layoffs still not showing any impact on the top line figure: U.S. employers added 517,000 jobs last month “Despite some high-profile job cuts, particularly among high-tech companies, layoffs remain rare. "The labor market remains extremely tight, with the unemployment rate at a 50-year low, job vacancies very high, and wage growth elevated," Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said this week. Restaurants and bars added 99,000 jobs last month, and a surge in new job openings suggests demand for workers in the industry remains strong. Construction companies added 25,000 jobs in January while factories added 19,000. Manufacturing orders have slowed in recent months, but factories are reluctant to downsize their workforce, in hopes that business will rebound later in the year.” https://www.npr.org/2023/02/03/1153912911/jobs-labor-unemployment-wages-inflation-federal-reserve
February 3, 20232 yr 10 minutes ago, amped91 said: Tech layoffs still not showing any impact on the top line figure: U.S. employers added 517,000 jobs last month “Despite some high-profile job cuts, particularly among high-tech companies, layoffs remain rare. "The labor market remains extremely tight, with the unemployment rate at a 50-year low, job vacancies very high, and wage growth elevated," Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said this week. Restaurants and bars added 99,000 jobs last month, and a surge in new job openings suggests demand for workers in the industry remains strong. Construction companies added 25,000 jobs in January while factories added 19,000. Manufacturing orders have slowed in recent months, but factories are reluctant to downsize their workforce, in hopes that business will rebound later in the year.” https://www.npr.org/2023/02/03/1153912911/jobs-labor-unemployment-wages-inflation-federal-reserve That number is truly extraordinary. The Republicans and Biden haters have been hoping and hoping for a down fall of some sort but so far the economy is simply roaring. Even strong economies have issues but face it things are strong. And looking ahead I’m not so sure it’s gonna change, The Biden Admin has timed the transportation bill and other money perfectly to pour into the economy just at the right time (and election time, haha!) ”You don’t get this kind of positive surprise if recession is imminent, so this report ends U.S. recession fears.” — Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, in a tweet • “The term ‘game changer’ is used far too often, but the January employment report was truly a game changer. Most economists and market participants have grown increasingly confident that the labor market is on the verge of rolling over, despite a lack of hard evidence supporting such a thesis. The January employment report emphatically underscored that the labor market remains hot and the U.S. economy’s demise has been greatly exaggerated.” — Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities, in a note” Edited February 3, 20232 yr by 646empire
February 3, 20232 yr Very hard to know where this all ends as the developed world is in demographically unprecedented territory. We (the U.S.) only now passed the milestone of 50% of employees being back in the office, which raises some red flags for me. The U.S. labor force is extremely tight, but with a participation rate that's only now at 62% vs. a rate of more than 66% fifteen years ago, and down from a peak of 67% back in 2000. Services seems to be the really sticky part of inflation, and given the still-monumental labor force gap, I'm not sure how much it's going to take to drive it down. This, on the American side, is paired with a rapidly aging Europe, Japan, China, and SKorea. And all the while, public debt to GDP ratios are as high as they've ever been following a decade of la la land interest rates. You've got the fed trying to fight unprecedented inflationary demographics, Europe and part of Asia staring down the barrel at unprecedented deflationary demographics, and central banks across the world looking at unprecedented debt service to GDP ratios coming down the pike. I'm not sure how well our past experience on economics guides what will happen next, but it sure is interesting!
February 10, 20232 yr Hilton CEO sez it's better to keep rates high and let unsold hotel rooms sit empty, rather than dropping rates or offering discounts to fill them: Quote “We can get back [to 2019 occupancy levels] tomorrow if we wanted,” Hilton CEO Christopher Nassetta said during a company earnings call Thursday. “We could drop rates and occupy ourselves up, but we don’t want to do that. We are trying to manage, in this cycle particularly given the environment [of] inflation [and] everything else, really effectively to drive the best bottom line results for [our hotel] owners.”
February 10, 20232 yr 21 minutes ago, taestell said: Hilton CEO sez it's better to keep rates high and let unsold hotel rooms sit empty, rather than dropping rates or offering discounts to fill them: So you would rather not have more money?? Seems so weird, having your rooms fill up, will usually make you more money.
February 10, 20232 yr 2 minutes ago, GCrites80s said: Which means it's a staffing issue. Yeah. The hourly wages being paid by Amazon, DHL, etc., are WAY higher now (30%?) than in 2019, meaning people that might have otherwise worked in hotels are slinging packages.
February 10, 20232 yr Most hotels (other than high end ones) have moved away from daily housekeeping and now only provide it upon request or every xth day. A lot of hotel restaurants/bars are still closed or have shorter hours now than pre-pandemic. Many hotel chains are offering mobile checkin and electronic keys, so guests can skip the front desk. In other words, it seems they are already finding ways to reduce staffing costs. So the strategy appears to be more about setting the rates artificially high and trying to milk as much profit as possible from a post-COVID travel boom, rather than setting them at a more appropriate rate that would result in better occupancy rates.
February 28, 20232 yr "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
March 10, 20232 yr Jobs report continues to far exceed projections: The US economy added 311,000 jobs last month, outpacing expectations https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/stocks-jobs-report-february/h_a950e855bad912f6fba92607593ff6fb
March 10, 20232 yr Oh but the higher we climb, the harder we'll fall when that Biden Depression hits! 😛 "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
March 10, 20232 yr 7 hours ago, amped91 said: Jobs report continues to far exceed projections: The US economy added 311,000 jobs last month, outpacing expectations https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/stocks-jobs-report-february/h_a950e855bad912f6fba92607593ff6fb Unemployment also ticked up while average earnings missed. This strongly suggests more people are getting pulled into the labor market. That's probably a good outcome given our dwindling participation rate, but it may also signal worsening financial conditions for families that are pulling stay-at-home partners back into the workforce.
March 10, 20232 yr The sooner this mess with the student loan forgiveness is settled and the sooner the loan forbearance is lifted, then the sooner the inflation will subside. The amount of expendable cash in the economy is artificially high due to the forbearance of the loans. Market demand will decrease when the student loan payments restart. I think there is a decent chance we have a soft landing.
March 10, 20232 yr 6 minutes ago, dski44 said: The sooner this mess with the student loan forgiveness is settled and the sooner the loan forbearance is lifted, then the sooner the inflation will subside. The amount of expendable cash in the economy is artificially high due to the forbearance of the loans. Market demand will decrease when the student loan payments restart. I think there is a decent chance we have a soft landing. Yeah people calling for student loan forgiveness don't understand that if it happens it'll cause rent and home purchase prices to increase. Renters with roommates will suddenly be able to afford alone - until the landlords raise the rent in response to demand. Hundreds of thousands of people who were borderline will suddenly qualify to buy a home with a $250k mortgage. That means home prices will tick upwards. Same with the Snap benefits. Nobody wants to admit that the pandemic boost to Snap helped fuel the inflation of food costs as the poor started buying more expensive food. Where I work, we got tons of calls on the first and second of the month with people going hog wild on food purchases.
March 10, 20232 yr 11 minutes ago, Lazarus said: Yeah people calling for student loan forgiveness don't understand that if it happens it'll cause rent and home purchase prices to increase. Renters with roommates will suddenly be able to afford alone - until the landlords raise the rent in response to demand. Hundreds of thousands of people who were borderline will suddenly qualify to buy a home with a $250k mortgage. That means home prices will tick upwards. Same with the Snap benefits. Nobody wants to admit that the pandemic boost to Snap helped fuel the inflation of food costs as the poor started buying more expensive food. Where I work, we got tons of calls on the first and second of the month with people going hog wild on food purchases. A lot of the rent raises from student loan forbearance has been factored into the market already. Pretty much one of the reasons why you are seeing such large rent increases the last couple of years. It will certainly continue with forgiveness but it will not cause an additional spike because renters have not been paying their loans since COVID so the market has already adjusted to that. Now, if the Court strikes down forgiveness, it will certainly cause the rental market to slow some since there is less money on the market for higher end apartments.
March 10, 20232 yr Do they even do those disbursements on the first of the month anymore? It used to be that on the first of the month you didn't dare shop for food because it would be too busy. Now traffic at supermarkets is much more even.
April 14, 20232 yr US wholesale inflation pressures eased sharply last month https://apnews.com/article/wholesale-inflation-prices-consumer-federal-reserve-producer-818e53575c3cbc2acfea0f1516f4425a "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
April 18, 20232 yr Manufacturing investing hits $200B https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/manufacturing-investing-hits-200b-6251322/ "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
April 18, 20232 yr On 3/10/2023 at 5:40 PM, GCrites80s said: Do they even do those disbursements on the first of the month anymore? It used to be that on the first of the month you didn't dare shop for food because it would be too busy. Now traffic at supermarkets is much more even. No they can be disbursed at different times. What to avoid now is garden centers like Lowes and Home Depot on a nice Saturday in the Spring(never again will I make that mistake!) Can we please not have a recession and put that off until at least 2025?
April 18, 20232 yr On the other hand, if you want to shop without any other customers around this time of year get thee to a video game store. Ask me how I know.
April 18, 20232 yr 43 minutes ago, Toddguy said: Can we please not have a recession and put that off until at least 2025? I think you will be seeing it sometime end of this year or 1st qtr early 2nd qtr next year. I have been talking with a number of business bankers and lenders over the last few weeks and they have been frustrated on how their business has been slowing down precipitously over the last couple of months due to the high interest rates and businesses not wanting to invest in longer capital intensive projects at this time. My friends in that business lament to me that they are really struggling for business and they have already cut their loan margins to compete due to their own higher cost of borrowing. This is a thing where the slowdown in business lending will not be seen in the broader economy for 3-4 more quarters which put us into early 2024 - mid 2024. Anecdotally, I remember working at Nat City in 2007/2008 and remember the initial signs of the slowdown for the bank started back in summer 2007 and volume slowed significantly in the Fall of that year. By winter it was a trickle (now part of that was the bank had other serious issues that made them unable to be competitive on loans compared to their peers, but there were still broader economic issues too). Business lending remained a trickle through most of the first 1/2 of 2008 until the collapse in October 2008. Now, we are not looking at anything like this in 2024 but if you want to see signs of the recession coming, look at the financial sector and where lenders are lending right now and then project out 3-6 quarters.
April 18, 20232 yr 1 hour ago, KJP said: Manufacturing investing hits $200B https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/manufacturing-investing-hits-200b-6251322/ It's good news, of course; I think, however, it's a lazy reporting for this piece (and others in the WSJ and FT) to credit only the Chips and Inflation Reduction Act. Factory construction is a multi-year process and last fall's bill may have nailed down Intel's course of action; but it didn't start the process. IMO, the supply chain disruptions of the early pandemic period were at least as important, showing the risk of single-source foreign procurement of vital components. Remember: It's the Year of the Snake
April 18, 20232 yr I was looking at CPI and the cost for food at home from March 2020 (245 pts) - March 2023 (302 points) rose 25 percent or around 57 CPI Points. Going back, it took from October 2004 (188 points) to March 2020 to raise 57 CPI points nominally. To calculate on a percentage basis to equal 25 % increase, that was Dec. 2006 (194.4 pts). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAF11 So in 3 years, we've had a percentage increase which previously took 14 years, 3 months. Probably a better measure is the all basket/all items US City Average. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL "The CPIs are based on prices for food, clothing, shelter, and fuels; transportation fares; service fees (e.g., water and sewer service); and sales taxes. Prices are collected monthly from about 4,000 housing units and approximately 26,000 retail establishments across 87 urban areas." March 2020 (258 pts) - March 2023 (301 pts) = 16.7% increase or around 43 CPI Points. April 2008 had 215 pts or even to Aug. 2009 (it rose during the recession then dropped back down) (equal to in points, 10 years and some months) On a percentage basis, that's about 217 pts, Nov. 2009. So prices rose in 3 years what last took them over 10 years. That's a huge hit to everyone's wallets. I personally am seeing a big crunch in our finances.
April 18, 20232 yr I feel like if you go that long with very little inflation you're going to have to pay the piper at some point. Then again, the 1800s had very little inflation.
April 18, 20232 yr 12 minutes ago, GCrites80s said: I feel like if you go that long with very little inflation you're going to have to pay the piper at some point. Then again, the 1800s had very little inflation. In the late 1800s, some railroad construction was funded with 150 year bonds. Those streetcar franchises locked the fare at a nickel for...50 years. It was impossible to increase the fare to six cents because the machinery couldn't handle two coins. The need to deal with changing fares + machines that could only handle one coin gave rise to the token.
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