April 18, 20232 yr 52 minutes ago, GCrites80s said: I feel like if you go that long with very little inflation you're going to have to pay the piper at some point. Then again, the 1800s had very little inflation. So should the policy instead of 2% inflation be at say 3% inflation with the feds? You also see it happened in the 1970's... Probably by more. It creates a huge shock, would that smooth the shock? But you are right, we are paying the piper to wall street!!!!
April 18, 20232 yr Yes, I don't understand the target being 2% when historically it is 3.2%. I know 2% or less is what people are used to from the 2000s and 2010s but to me it seems like a ploy to bring back the near-zero interest rates that Wall Street insists on to push out other asset classes.
April 18, 20232 yr Then you get a crazy valuation increase on your house in a span of 3 years and start paying way more in taxes on your mortgage. No doubt buying in early 2020 helped us big time with the low interest rates but then with the tax increase it wiped out the win on the mortgage rate, seems better to be more steady eddy on the inflation goal but wtf can we do about it? The low interest rates are good for everyone for awhile until it hits the fan like it is right now.
April 19, 20232 yr 23 hours ago, GCrites80s said: I feel like if you go that long with very little inflation you're going to have to pay the piper at some point. Then again, the 1800s had very little inflation. The 1800s had a gold standard. Not to be one of those people (I will not argue for the gold standard, lol), but the fiat inflationary environment is totally different from the gold-backed inflationary monetary environment. It's easier (from a self control standpoint) for a government to limit inflation when it can't just print money. With a fiat currency, the temptation to print a little more than you should is everpresent. On 4/18/2023 at 8:59 AM, Toddguy said: Can we please not have a recession and put that off until at least 2025? There are some things happening in the monetary pipelines that I think have completely unpredictable results. You can see it in some very weird inversions and absurd interest rate volatility. There's volatility because the market can't figure out what's going on. The 1 month t-bill is currently more than 1% below the federal funds rate and reverse repo rate, which means banks are willing to invest money in treasury bills and accept a rate of return that's a full percentage point lower than the rate they could get by just sticking the cash with the fed overnight. This makes as much sense as going to the grocery store and finding that four eggs and six eggs are the same price. These kinds of imbalances are problematic for two reasons. First, they make it impossible for banks and large companies to make intelligent decisions, which leads to excessive conservatism in some instances and to bad mistakes in others. Second, these imbalances signal something is really screwed up out in the monetary system. On the real-world side (as opposed to the monetary side), you can see from layoff reports that the real economy is starting to get screwed up. It's going to take a while before we see those impact in BLS numbers, which are lagging and have weird adjustments that sometimes mask layoffs. Other than Hyland, I haven't heard of big layoffs around here, and I'm sort of holding my breath hoping that we get through whatever is coming without major economic distress locally. The silver lining of this region's stagnation for the last 15 years is that we mostly missed out on the zero-percent-interest funding orgy that absolutely DUMPED cash into San Francisco, New York, Austin, and some others. That's a really nasty house of cards to fall, and, God willing, the fact that we missed out on most of that money means we'll also miss out on most of the bubble popping.
April 19, 20232 yr 22 hours ago, GCrites80s said: Yes, I don't understand the target being 2% when historically it is 3.2%. I know 2% or less is what people are used to from the 2000s and 2010s but to me it seems like a ploy to bring back the near-zero interest rates that Wall Street insists on to push out other asset classes. Low interest rates mean stocks + seeking something to replace bonds/CDs. That thing is quite often real estate. So an eventual return to 2-3% = more people trying to buy rental properties, which will raise costs and lower returns. At the bank last week I saw CD's advertised at 5%+ for the first time since the Bush years. I reminded me of the good 'ol fashioned CD Ladder: https://www.bankrate.com/banking/cds/cd-ladder-guide/
April 19, 20232 yr 22 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said: we mostly missed out on the zero-percent-interest funding orgy that absolutely DUMPED cash into San Francisco, New York, Austin, and some others. That's a really nasty house of cards to fall, and, God willing, the fact that we missed out on most of that money means we'll also miss out on most of the bubble popping. There are scads of 30~ year-old tech bros out there who have never seen stock and real estate prices crash. They've never been around mass layoffs. This will be a good experience for them. Maybe they'll come to realize why the older generations are typically more cautious.
May 2, 20232 yr Today's FT used an interesting measurement to gauge center city business activity: the number of cell phone conversations. In a piece called "The risk of an urban doom loop for America's old-line cities" the author gave examples; phone activity in San Francisco is at 31% of pre-pandemic levels, New York is at 74%, Chicago is at 50%, and Boston is at 54%. When the latest measurement was taken was not stated; still, it's available information that may be useful to track. The point of the piece was to point out the massive mismatch of urban real estate with current demand. The author flatly states that converting offices to apartments is neither easy nor cheap. Cleveland's, as well as other cities', experience may belie that; but New York and London authors don't follow what's happening very far afield. Remember: It's the Year of the Snake
May 2, 20232 yr 4 hours ago, Dougal said: Today's FT used an interesting measurement to gauge center city business activity: the number of cell phone conversations. In a piece called "The risk of an urban doom loop for America's old-line cities" the author gave examples; phone activity in San Francisco is at 31% of pre-pandemic levels, New York is at 74%, Chicago is at 50%, and Boston is at 54%. When the latest measurement was taken was not stated; still, it's available information that may be useful to track. Not taking away from the point, but I wonder how much of that decline is attributable to other forms of communication that really took hold during COVID (video/audio with Teams, Slack, Zoom, FaceTime)?
May 2, 20232 yr 2 hours ago, mrCharlie said: Not taking away from the point, but I wonder how much of that decline is attributable to other forms of communication that really took hold during COVID (video/audio with Teams, Slack, Zoom, FaceTime)? Yeah, who makes calls on their cellphone anymore? Weirdos, that's who.
May 5, 20232 yr BREAKING: The April Jobs Report is out! - The Unemployment rate is at 3.4% - The Unemployment rate is the lowest in 50 years - The Unemployment rate under Trump never reached this level. - The Black Unemployment rate is 4.7% - The Black Unemployment rate is the lowest ever - 253,000 Jobs were added last month. The US economy is one of the strongest on the planet. Yes, inflation is still high. Yes, some people are still struggling. Yes, oil prices are too high. Yes, our national debt is an embarrassment. But overall we are doing pretty darn well compared to others. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
May 5, 20232 yr Just as long as they stop raising g-damn interest rates. We're at August 2007 levels.
May 5, 20232 yr 41 minutes ago, TBideon said: Just as long as they stop raising g-damn interest rates. We're at August 2007 levels. I do not think the unemployment rate is a great indicator on how the economy is, especially given the overall labor participation rate. The biggest indicator I would look at is more durable goods orders. This will forecast a longer term slowdown in the economy that wont be noticed for a few more quarters. One big difference from 2007 was that inflation was not as big of a challenge at that time. The one thing that does stick out to me is the slow down in the CRE sector as well as what I have heard is a more slow down in larger heavy equipment/technology purchases. Certainly not all industries are seeing this, I think I saw GE was expanding their manufacturing, but there are certain sectors where the ripples of the higher interest rates are being noticed. Layoffs in the tech sector will have a trickle down effect and the higher interest rates have certainly slowed the Commercial Real Estate transaction pipeline a bunch. Just like in 2007, I would not be surprised if we really see more of a full fledged recession (not 2008 variety) starting sometime in winter/Spring 2024
May 5, 20232 yr 11 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said: One big difference from 2007 was that inflation was not as big of a challenge at that time. The challenge with inflation isn't raising interest rates - it's keeping them high. There will be enormous pressure to cut rates when/if the U.S. enters a recession, but it's necessary for there to be some suffering before rates can be relaxed. Otherwise, inflation takes off immediately once more.
May 5, 20232 yr 1 hour ago, KJP said: BREAKING: The April Jobs Report is out! - The Unemployment rate is at 3.4% - The Unemployment rate is the lowest in 50 years - The Unemployment rate under Trump never reached this level. - The Black Unemployment rate is 4.7% - The Black Unemployment rate is the lowest ever - 253,000 Jobs were added last month. The US economy is one of the strongest on the planet. Yes, inflation is still high. Yes, some people are still struggling. Yes, oil prices are too high. Yes, our national debt is an embarrassment. But overall we are doing pretty darn well compared to others. 13 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said: I do not think the unemployment rate is a great indicator on how the economy is, especially given the overall labor participation rate. The biggest indicator I would look at is more durable goods orders. This will forecast a longer term slowdown in the economy that wont be noticed for a few more quarters. One big difference from 2007 was that inflation was not as big of a challenge at that time. The one thing that does stick out to me is the slow down in the CRE sector as well as what I have heard is a more slow down in larger heavy equipment/technology purchases. Certainly not all industries are seeing this, I think I saw GE was expanding their manufacturing, but there are certain sectors where the ripples of the higher interest rates are being noticed. Layoffs in the tech sector will have a trickle down effect and the higher interest rates have certainly slowed the Commercial Real Estate transaction pipeline a bunch. Just like in 2007, I would not be surprised if we really see more of a full fledged recession (not 2008 variety) starting sometime in winter/Spring 2024 I think both of the above are true. We're doing better than almost anyone else, but the financial system is not healthy. I'm not sure how much unemployment will rise actually, because there's a lot of labor force strength. But this is truly a historic risk asset bubble, created by 15-years of free money. It's probably a good thing long-term that it pops, and I think we in Cleveland are relatively well positioned to weather the storm.
May 5, 20232 yr 31 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said: I think both of the above are true. We're doing better than almost anyone else, but the financial system is not healthy. I'm not sure how much unemployment will rise actually, because there's a lot of labor force strength. But this is truly a historic risk asset bubble, created by 15-years of free money. It's probably a good thing long-term that it pops, and I think we in Cleveland are relatively well positioned to weather the storm. I am not too worried about Ohio in general. I think like 1998 when the rest of the world went into a huge recession and the US didn't we will also do well comparatively speaking. We will still have a recession but not as bad IMO. I do not think this asset bubble is any worse than many recessions and it is nowhere near what we saw in 2008. Certainly prices are inflated but that is what happens before almost any recession.
May 6, 20232 yr Not sure if this is good or bad. Maybe if we increased immigration, kids could spend more time learning and reduce inflation too. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
May 6, 20232 yr 18 hours ago, KJP said: Not sure if this is good or bad. Maybe if we increased immigration, kids could spend more time learning and reduce inflation too. I'd say holding a job as a teenager is a matchless learning experience, probably better than equivalent time spent in a high school. Remember: It's the Year of the Snake
May 6, 20232 yr Parents overschedule their kids with activities. They don't hold jobs in the same esteem as sports, instrument practice and other structured activities such as eSports.
May 8, 20232 yr On 5/6/2023 at 3:54 PM, Dougal said: I'd say holding a job as a teenager is a matchless learning experience, probably better than equivalent time spent in a high school. I agree. Every job has its own logic - none of them directly aligned with the morals of your family, religion, or school. You need to adapt to remain employed.
May 8, 20232 yr On 5/2/2023 at 5:18 PM, X said: Yeah, who makes calls on their cellphone anymore? Weirdos, that's who. Could have put a period after the word "calls" LOL. I almost never talk on the phone. It's the absolute worst way to communicate accurately.
May 9, 20232 yr 6 hours ago, E Rocc said: Could have put a period after the word "calls" LOL. I almost never talk on the phone. It's the absolute worst way to communicate accurately. I disagree. Sometimes a quick phone call can clear up a lot of confusion with texts and emails--especially when there are a large portion of our adult population who struggle with written communication skills. As an aside, I have to compliment everyone here on Urban Ohio. There is rarely someone here contributing where I'm scratching my head saying "WTF does he mean?" Not true in my daily work life....
May 9, 20232 yr Just think about what percentage of phone call time is barking letters and numbers over the line. That's what I think is weird in 2023.
May 9, 20232 yr 8 hours ago, GCrites80s said: Just think about what percentage of phone call time is barking letters and numbers over the line. That's what I think is weird in 2023. Which the person at the other end has to write down anyway, and could easily get wrong.
May 11, 20232 yr FWIW "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
May 11, 20232 yr On 5/8/2023 at 9:01 PM, Cleburger said: I disagree. Sometimes a quick phone call can clear up a lot of confusion with texts and emails--especially when there are a large portion of our adult population who struggle with written communication skills. As an aside, I have to compliment everyone here on Urban Ohio. There is rarely someone here contributing where I'm scratching my head saying "WTF does he mean?" Not true in my daily work life.... I have my own method. If i call or talk in person, it's because i'm avoiding a paper trail. If I email, I am creating a paper trail
May 11, 20232 yr 1 hour ago, freefourur said: I have my own method. If i call or talk in person, it's because i'm avoiding a paper trail. If I email, I am creating a paper trail Two of the truest things I have read online in a very long time, ((the other being @Gramarye's comment about respecting the conscience and beliefs of health care providers) within a few minutes of each other from very different contributors.
May 13, 20232 yr On 5/11/2023 at 3:33 PM, E Rocc said: Two of the truest things I have read online in a very long time, ((the other being @Gramarye's comment about respecting the conscience and beliefs of health care providers) within a few minutes of each other from very different contributors. such snowflakiness, the hypocratic oath fundamentals override healthcare provider 'feelings.'
May 30, 20232 yr Student Loan payments to restart: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/debt-ceiling-deal-seals-end-to-student-debt-moratorium-a-nearly-400-per-month-shock-to-budgets-3a92acef?mod=home-page This moratorium should have ended the instant inflation appeared.
May 30, 20232 yr 3 minutes ago, Lazarus said: Student Loan payments to restart: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/debt-ceiling-deal-seals-end-to-student-debt-moratorium-a-nearly-400-per-month-shock-to-budgets-3a92acef?mod=home-page This moratorium should have ended the instant inflation appeared. The payments were already scheduled to restart this summer. They probably would've restarted if not for the SCOTUS case regarding the loan forgiveness.
May 30, 20232 yr 33 minutes ago, freefourur said: The payments were already scheduled to restart this summer. They probably would've restarted if not for the SCOTUS case regarding the loan forgiveness. They would have but Biden extended it as a fallback in case the Court did not agree with his loan forgiveness scheme. It appears they probably will not agree with it, and he would likely have faced significant pressure from the left flank to keep up with the deferrals until they could figure out another way to get loan forgiveness. This will pretty much circumvent that option.
May 30, 20232 yr The interesting takeaways: 1) Wage growth in Blue States and Red States is similar and essentially shows that forced minimum wage increases do absolutely nothing to drive up real wages and that the key to real wage growth is determined by market forces more than anything (who would have thought that the market not government is the determinative factor) 2) Red and Blue States have similar job growth but there is a higher concentration of government jobs in blue states vs private sector work in red states (again, people vote with their economic self interest in mind more than anything and this reinforces why public sector employees tend to support Democrats) 3) The most interesting difference between the red state vs blue state job growth could be explained by the fact that many of the more rural manufacturing jobs or jobs in such red states are concentrated in "factory towns" or even in blue states, concentrated in factory areas where there is only 1-2 key employers in the town and therefore, those who grow up in the town have limited options as to the industry where they work. This can lead to bad job fit which creates higher turnover (as experienced in the red state data) and greater employee churn, whereas in more urban areas in both red and blue states, there is more opportunity for people to find a niche that suits their talents better. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/05/26/hiring-red-blue-states/
May 30, 20232 yr ^If we flipped things around, people would understand the gravity of this giveaway. Imagine, instead, that the government was giving 43 million people $393/mo. That's roughly $17 billion, spent on whatever people choose to spend it on. Perhaps 10% of people are disciplined enough to act as if this giveaway isn't happening and saved all of it, applied it to other debt, invested it, etc. What did the rest do? Work less (putting stress on the labor market, further driving up costs and therefore inflation), eat more, travel more.
May 30, 20232 yr 11 minutes ago, Lazarus said: ^If we flipped things around, people would understand the gravity of this giveaway. Imagine, instead, that the government was giving 43 million people $393/mo. That's roughly $17 billion, spent on whatever people choose to spend it on. Perhaps 10% of people are disciplined enough to act as if this giveaway isn't happening and saved all of it, applied it to other debt, invested it, etc. What did the rest do? Work less (putting stress on the labor market, further driving up costs and therefore inflation), eat more, travel more. I don't know if it's being actively considered (it should be), but what about if we just made student loans 0% interest moving forward? Maybe even rolled back existing loans to whatever was originally borrowed? It's not really a giveaway, people would still be paying back everything they borrowed - but maybe they will get them paid off at some point. It also wouldn't be hitting the economy all at the same time the way blanket forgiveness would. I feel like we need to do something, student loan debt is having genuine long-term consequences to our country. Student loan debt has been cited as a factor for declining birth rates (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5231614/) and declining home ownership (https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/consumer-community-context-201901.pdf) amount younger people. Edited May 30, 20232 yr by mrCharlie
May 30, 20232 yr On 5/8/2023 at 9:01 PM, Cleburger said: As an aside, I have to compliment everyone here on Urban Ohio. There is rarely someone here contributing where I'm scratching my head saying "WTF does he mean?" Until -- 7 minutes ago, Lazarus said: ^If we flipped things around, people would understand the gravity of this giveaway. Imagine, instead, that the government was giving 43 million people $393/mo. That's roughly $17 billion, spent on whatever people choose to spend it on. Perhaps 10% of people are disciplined enough to act as if this giveaway isn't happening and saved all of it, applied it to other debt, invested it, etc. What did the rest do? Work less (putting stress on the labor market, further driving up costs and therefore inflation), eat more, travel more. Lazarus, are you talking about student loan forgiveness? Government student loans should have the same rate as the government loans to banks -- near zero. And forgiveness should still be part of the equation for high-need, low-pay jobs, like teachers. "eat more, travel more" activities can actually increase jobs in the restaurant and travel sectors. Purely anecdotally, I find that Millennials and Gen Z'ers don't want to work more than 40 hours or take only 2 weeks of vacation -- they're asking for more time off and happier making less and working less. It's not universal, there are still "kids" who want to work as much and make as much as they possibly can, but I have yet to see the same kind of job offer counteroffers from Gen Xers.
May 30, 20232 yr 2 minutes ago, mrCharlie said: and declining home ownership (https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/consumer-community-context-201901.pdf) amount younger people. ...but if student loans disappeared, housing costs would go up. The core problems are that a)too many people are going to college b)colleges have no incentive to control their costs c)colleges are spending huge amounts of money on recruiting.
May 30, 20232 yr 1 minute ago, Lazarus said: ...but if student loans disappeared, housing costs would go up. The core problems are that a)too many people are going to college b)colleges have no incentive to control their costs c)colleges are spending huge amounts of money on recruiting. While it's technically true that student loan forgiveness would put upward pressure on home prices, I think that's a candle next to the bonfire in this situation. We simply aren't building enough new residential stock, especially entry-level workforce residential stock, to keep prices moderate. And in the last few years, with construction labor, construction materials, and construction financing all becoming vastly more expensive since COVID, we may have squandered some critical years in the last decade in which we could have been building a lot more during a comparatively blessed time to do so. As for too many people going to college and colleges having no incentive to cut costs: That's certainly true today, but query how stable an equilibrium that is with shrinking family sizes. And there's no reason that we can't both take prospective measures to put downward pressure on college costs (including putting limits on loans and grants that we know that colleges will target to their fullest) while at the same time dealing with the hangover of messaging that pressured millions of marginal students to take out billions in student loans for college degrees of questionable market value at best.
May 30, 20232 yr 33 minutes ago, Lazarus said: ^If we flipped things around, people would understand the gravity of this giveaway. Imagine, instead, that the government was giving 43 million people $393/mo. That's roughly $17 billion, spent on whatever people choose to spend it on. Perhaps 10% of people are disciplined enough to act as if this giveaway isn't happening and saved all of it, applied it to other debt, invested it, etc. What did the rest do? Work less (putting stress on the labor market, further driving up costs and therefore inflation), eat more, travel more. PPP was a $953 BILLION program, why don't we dig into that and how it benefitted an exponentially lower amount of Americans vs student loan forgiveness or interest rate freeze. Loans that weren't completely forgiven have a 1% interest rate. Going by your math, instead of giving to the trickle down class, each American could've gotten $2,900 "to spend how they wanted". Edited May 30, 20232 yr by GISguy
May 30, 20232 yr 18 minutes ago, Lazarus said: ...but if student loans disappeared, housing costs would go up. The core problems are that a)too many people are going to college b)colleges have no incentive to control their costs c)colleges are spending huge amounts of money on recruiting. The WSJ today reported that the college attendance rate has dropped from a prepandemic 66.2% of high school seniors to 62% in 2022, with most of the drop being males. They cited the appeal of the current labor market and apprenticeships as the reason. Remember: It's the Year of the Snake
May 30, 20232 yr Not only that, but since males get no interest from white-collar employers except for sales and engineering in their early careers they get diverted to things like warehouses no matter how well-educated they are. Spend all that time in school only to be offered the same jobs that they could have gotten straight out of high school.
May 30, 20232 yr The current high-demand for workers in the trades will no doubt divert some kids from college. Good-paying jobs right out of high school, without student debt. The catch is you'll probably be working for someone forever (which is fine for a lot of people). A well-chosen college degree is certainly helpful if you want to some day run your own business, not to mention our health insurance system making it very difficult to work for yourself. The trades though are not for everyone. There are also a lot of entry-level white collar jobs that (often inappropriately) require a college degree, though regardless the lack of a degree probably limits how far you will actually go in your career. There are also definitely blue-collar jobs that do require a postsecondary degree, and some colleges are working to fulfill that need (OSU offering a BS in Engineering Technology, ideally for people who want a career at Intel and such). Regardless, there will still be plenty of demand and messaging that a college education is necessary for a lot of people, not to mention mention the millions of Americans who already have plenty of student debt. Something needs to happen so younger people can actually get started on their lives.
May 30, 20232 yr 53 minutes ago, Gramarye said: While it's technically true that student loan forgiveness would put upward pressure on home prices, I think that's a candle next to the bonfire in this situation. We simply aren't building enough new residential stock, especially entry-level workforce residential stock, to keep prices moderate. And in the last few years, with construction labor, construction materials, and construction financing all becoming vastly more expensive since COVID, we may have squandered some critical years in the last decade in which we could have been building a lot more during a comparatively blessed time to do so. Still paying the piper for 2008. 2008 scared people away the trades and changed bank lending policies on a near-permanent basis. What happens when an industry develops a reputation for layoffs is that entire generations write off the industry as too unstable. Happened with factory jobs then happened to the trades and everyone went to college instead. NO MORE 2008S!
May 30, 20232 yr 10 minutes ago, mrCharlie said: The current high-demand for workers in the trades will no doubt divert some kids from college. Good-paying jobs right out of high school, without student debt. The catch is you'll probably be working for someone forever (which is fine for a lot of people). A well-chosen college degree is certainly helpful if you want to some day run your own business, not to mention our health insurance system making it very difficult to work for yourself. The trades though are not for everyone. There are also a lot of entry-level white collar jobs that (often inappropriately) require a college degree, though regardless the lack of a degree probably limits how far you will actually go in your career. There are also definitely blue-collar jobs that do require a postsecondary degree, and some colleges are working to fulfill that need (OSU offering a BS in Engineering Technology, ideally for people who want a career at Intel and such). Regardless, there will still be plenty of demand and messaging that a college education is necessary for a lot of people, not to mention mention the millions of Americans who already have plenty of student debt. Something needs to happen so younger people can actually get started on their lives. You say that you're likely to be working for someone else as a tradesman, but there are a fair number of independent tradesmen, too, including some that I think pull double duty, working as subs for major contractors on major projects and then having their own business for retail work that doesn't need that kind of overhead. I don't know whether this is just a northeast Ohio thing or a national thing, but another setup that I've seen more than once up here (not enough to know whether these anecdotes are a trend, but enough for it to look like a pattern to me): Two out of the last five contractors that have been out to work on our house--one chimney masonry repair shop and one basement restoration shop that was unfortunately necessary after a sewer drain backup--they were/are family businesses in which the "office manager" was actually the wife of one of the tradesmen (and in one case, one of the employee tradesmen was also their son). But I do agree that the trades aren't for everyone. In fact, the handful of kids who went into the trades from my high school were mostly either right around the middle of the class or slightly above. I know this because at least some of them were regularly on honor roll (which wasn't too hard, grade inflation being what it was, but it was still something). The trades might not be as mentally demanding as medicine or accounting or finance, but it's not for dunces, either.
May 30, 20232 yr 1 hour ago, Gramarye said: messaging that pressured millions of marginal students to take out billions in student loans for college degrees of questionable market value at best. I know a girl who graduated from UC in Fall 2022 with $27,000 in student loans...but her dad took out a $50,000 Parent Plus loan...and he's currently in jail. She has made no attempt to get a professional job since graduation and just went to Europe for two weeks last month. I assume that her loan payments start soon. No telling what happens to her dad when he gets out. When I was in college, my roommate maxed out his student loans to lend the money...to his dad. So then his dad was paying him back for the next ten years.
May 30, 20232 yr 11 minutes ago, Lazarus said: I know a girl who graduated from UC in Fall 2022 with $27,000 in student loans...but her dad took out a $50,000 Parent Plus loan...and he's currently in jail. She has made no attempt to get a professional job since graduation and just went to Europe for two weeks last month. I assume that her loan payments start soon. No telling what happens to her dad when he gets out. When I was in college, my roommate maxed out his student loans to lend the money...to his dad. So then his dad was paying him back for the next ten years. You sure are full of (unverifiable) personal anecdotes that are supposed to convince us of....something. The only thing they convince me of is that you manage to surround yourself with the worst people, and then get pulled into their drama.
May 30, 20232 yr 1 hour ago, GISguy said: PPP was a $953 BILLION program, why don't we dig into that and how it benefitted an exponentially lower amount of Americans vs student loan forgiveness or interest rate freeze. The whole Covid thing was ridiculous. Sure, tons of business owners who didn't need any money had money thrown at them. But the student loan payment holiday is something different and should have ended soon after the vaccine was approved for mass production. Biden politicized the deferment by attempting to make it permanent. If you had suggested back in March of 2020 that a vaccine would be developed for the new virus by the end of that calendar year but that the student loan holiday would continue for roughly 30 more months after its release....I mean come on, people. We're pushing 40 months with no loan payments at this point. That's a savings of roughly $14,000 for for a typical borrower.
May 30, 20232 yr One thing that helps grades is that the vocational schools start at 8:30 or 9 rather than at night like the traditional schools so the kids are actually awake.
May 30, 20232 yr 8 minutes ago, Lazarus said: That's a savings of roughly $14,000 for for a typical borrower. The average ppp loan was $107K, why aren't we talking about this more? I saw your personal anecdote above and it's pretty obvious how you feel about tuition and young borrowers but there's truth in the fact that these loan forbearances have helped people get on their feet and save money vs paying anywhere from $200-1000 in student loan payments (at 5-10%+ interest) every month in perpetuity. When rent starts at $1k and you're only making $40k, good luck "contributing to the economy" when you can barely survive. Here's my personal anecdote: nearly everyone I know who had their parents pay the full amount of their tuition have had it pretty easy, they could rent where they wanted, take sojourns, and not feel the pressure to get a job at x salary because they didn't have to worry about loans or have any financial burden. 10+ years out of college I finally feel comfortable to do "adult" things. Sure, colleges need to reign in their spending (and private schools are facing the music on this, my college included), but your stories about people galivanting thanks to their student loans is making it sound like all students are like this when its far from reality.
May 30, 20232 yr 2 hours ago, Lazarus said: ...but if student loans disappeared, housing costs would go up. The core problems are that a)too many people are going to college b)colleges have no incentive to control their costs c)colleges are spending huge amounts of money on recruiting. The actual cost of attending college hasn't gone up in awhile. In 2014, adjusted for inflation, the average annual cost of tuition and fees at a four year public institution was $9,499. In 2020, it was $9,375.
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