June 1, 20232 yr On 5/30/2023 at 10:49 AM, Foraker said: "eat more, travel more" activities can actually increase jobs in the restaurant and travel That sounds suspiciously a lot like trickle down economics.
June 1, 20232 yr C'mon America, open up the gates! We need more workers!! Job vacancies jumped to 10.1 million in April, the highest in three months, confounding economists' expectations of a modest decline. The Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey also showed there were 1.8 available positions for each unemployed individual, also a three-month high. The report, which showed layoffs falling from March, raises expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep lifting interest rates to combat inflation, which it says has been fed by a demand for workers and consequent wage growth. https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/job-openings-surge-to-3-month-high-5310289/ "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
June 1, 20232 yr 18 hours ago, Gramarye said: Curious, what college graduating class are you? Graduated from undergrad in 2012, my mom didn't have good enough credit for a loan so my brother cosigned, they were with Wells Fargo, Sallie Mae, Great Lakes, etc. even doing a quick google search takes me back to my loan searching days. The "best" companies have loan rates ranging from 4.5-16%: https://lendedu.com/blog/private-student-loans/, that's insane!
June 1, 20232 yr 5 hours ago, KJP said: C'mon America, open up the gates! We need more workers!! Job vacancies jumped to 10.1 million in April, the highest in three months, confounding economists' expectations of a modest decline. The Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey also showed there were 1.8 available positions for each unemployed individual, also a three-month high. The report, which showed layoffs falling from March, raises expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep lifting interest rates to combat inflation, which it says has been fed by a demand for workers and consequent wage growth. https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/job-openings-surge-to-3-month-high-5310289/ If only there was bipartisan agreement that immigration law needed reform there could be hearings and proposed changes to the law on the best way to do it..... the House and Senate versions ultimately passed probably would be different, but probably not so different that a Conference Committee couldn't come up with SOMETHING to move the ball forward. And yet....
June 1, 20232 yr 4 hours ago, GISguy said: Great Lakes, I forgot about Great Lakes. They were my servicer for the last few years. When you pay off your loans, you get a little animated gif congratulations. 4 hours ago, GISguy said: The "best" companies have loan rates ranging from 4.5-16%: https://lendedu.com/blog/private-student-loans/, that's insane! My youngest brother is working full-time in sales and cash flowing law school. He's in a 4-year night program. But that's a personal anecdote so it doesn't count.
June 1, 20232 yr 5 hours ago, GISguy said: Graduated from undergrad in 2012, my mom didn't have good enough credit for a loan so my brother cosigned, they were with Wells Fargo, Sallie Mae, Great Lakes, etc. even doing a quick google search takes me back to my loan searching days. The "best" companies have loan rates ranging from 4.5-16%: https://lendedu.com/blog/private-student-loans/, that's insane! You convinced me to check my credit union's education loan rates. Flat 6.75%, $20,000 maximum, co-maker required. Of course, at most places, $20,000 won't get you to the finish line so you'd tap that out and then need more loans from elsewhere, but I'm betting that product is aimed primarily at people who just need a little more on top of their federal maximums.
June 1, 20232 yr Interesting thread, especially the USA map showing where job losses/gains are occurring "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
June 1, 20232 yr keep in mind by far the vast majority of student loan defaults are via scammy for profit ‘colleges’ like trump had. historic black colleges dont do well either, but for other reasons and are far smaller and way down the list. your basic state u’s, community colleges and the like are fine. we dont have a student loan default problem, we have a scammy for profit fake colleges problem. as for the latter, hellz yes they are shamelessly above serious oversight and runaway costs need reigned in, but thats another issue.
June 1, 20232 yr 13 minutes ago, mrnyc said: keep in mind by far the vast majority of student loan defaults are via scammy for profit ‘colleges’ like trump had. historic black colleges dont do well either, but for other reasons and are far smaller and way down the list. Do you have the stats for this? I would believe that for-profit colleges (and to a lesser extent HBCUs) had the highest default rates. But they're so small (at least by the scale of "all universities in the USA") that I don't think they could form the "vast majority of student loan defaults" even if their default rates were 100%.
June 1, 20232 yr 54 minutes ago, Gramarye said: Do you have the stats for this? I would believe that for-profit colleges (and to a lesser extent HBCUs) had the highest default rates. But they're so small (at least by the scale of "all universities in the USA") that I don't think they could form the "vast majority of student loan defaults" even if their default rates were 100%. it was a defaults study where predatory for profit college defaults raised way up to like 45 out of 100 loans defaulted over a few years, but of that ‘real’ colleges like state u’s and community college defaults have held typically steady like from 8 to 10 out of 100.
June 1, 20232 yr basically, real college loan defaults have held steady, but the rise in scammy for profit ‘colleges’ like trump u, phoenix and the like are absolutely out of control and taking advantage of uncle sam covering student loans for patently unworthy college worthy applicants. this is a very different issue from ridiculously poorly regulated spiraling legit college costs of course.
June 2, 20232 yr 14 hours ago, mrnyc said: basically, real college loan defaults have held steady, but the rise in scammy for profit ‘colleges’ like trump u, phoenix and the like are absolutely out of control and taking advantage of uncle sam covering student loans for patently unworthy college worthy applicants. this is a very different issue from ridiculously poorly regulated spiraling legit college costs of course. I'm at work and so can't look it up but quite a number of those people have had their student loans cancelled and many of those schools no longer exist. Those schools themselves weren't necessarily scams (I taught at one and it actually had better equipment than the 4-year university I attended and some very good teachers) but they had "recruiters" who were scammers, and they got away with tricking students in various ways. For example, even a student withdrew from classes mid-quarter, they'd sign them up automatically for the following quarter even though they weren't attending. I know that this sounds impossible but it really was happening, and the former students often didn't notice for a year or years. Another trick was to re-recruit people right after they had gotten one of the 2-year certificates, trick them into taking some of the same classes again, etc. The state schools and not-for-profit schools never stooped to this level, to my knowledge.
June 2, 20232 yr Loosen or ignore regulations then private sector goes nuts with profit for a few years then financial mess for society for years even decades. Rinse and repeat.
June 2, 20232 yr Incredible employment and labor force participation numbers. While the inflationary situation has been concerning, the net benefits of the overall US Government actions over the last few years are quite clear. Our inflation is lower than other wealthy countries and our employment rates are higher. Wages, particularly at the low end, are finally growing again. When is the last time I-71 turned a profit?
June 2, 20232 yr The job and financial markets seemingly can support another increase in interest rates. Let's bump it another .5 points, since 4.7% inflation and god knows what COLA is still rough. Apple can hit $3 trillion next year instead of next week.
June 2, 20232 yr 3 hours ago, TBideon said: The job and financial markets seemingly can support another increase in interest rates. Let's bump it another .5 points, since 4.7% inflation and god knows what COLA is still rough. Apple can hit $3 trillion next year instead of next week. Looks like that may not happen Fed signaling rate 'skip' https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/fed-signaling-rate-skip-5660916/ "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
June 2, 20232 yr 10 million job openings (of varying quality and legitimacy), 300,000+ private sector jobs, significant rebound in the markets, consumer spending up, Russia/Ukraine conflict quieting (relatively), Midde Eastern conflicts quieting (relatively), debt ceiling negotiations finalized... Isn't now the right - well, let's call it least worst - time to raise interest rates?
June 2, 20232 yr 21 hours ago, mrnyc said: keep in mind by far the vast majority of student loan defaults are via scammy for profit ‘colleges’ like trump had. historic black colleges dont do well either, but for other reasons and are far smaller and way down the list. your basic state u’s, community colleges and the like are fine. we dont have a student loan default problem, we have a scammy for profit fake colleges problem. as for the latter, hellz yes they are shamelessly above serious oversight and runaway costs need reigned in, but thats another issue. that does make a lot of sense. While I dont have numbers, the vast majority of defaults are those that occur when the person drops out and does not finish the degree. For profit schools should theoretically have the highest dropout rate because they have the easiest barriers to entry and take practically any student with a pulse. While they offer opportunties to students to get a degree, it is also easy for people to quit when life gets busy and they would rather do something else (people being people and all). With historical black colleges, you can see this happening because you have a lot of first generation college students who may not be prepared for college or do not have enough stability on the home front that it can lead to a high drop out rate for other reasons such as family need, etc. One thing that I see a lot of that goes along with the for profit schools you mention are loans for schools like beauty schools, massage schools, art schools, etc. (essentially the schools that specialize in what i would consider light trades). These schools have an easy point of entry for students, offer a short program so it seems affordable, but have a high dropout rate for likely many reasons. I cant count how many people i see who have loans to these schools and are stuck paying on it for a certificate they never completed.
June 3, 20232 yr Threats to market liquidity are growing.... "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
June 3, 20232 yr 11 hours ago, KJP said: Threats to market liquidity are growing.... Very good thread, thanks @KJP. I think too few people appreciate what the last decade of economics has represented. For almost all of it we had ZIRP (zero interest-rate policy) which basically means banks can always borrow money for almost free, sometimes for literally free, and in occasionally even for negative interest rates. I believe ZIRP is unprecedented in all of history. When the fed decided to bring interest rates above 1.5% in 2018/2019, it broke the market even though the fed funds rate never got above 3% (which is still quite low historically). The interest rate hikes of 2022-23 have already exposed many cracks in the system (i.e. SVB, FRC, British gilt market, etc.) and that's in spite of the fact that the global market was washed over with unprecedented amounts of free money in 2020 and 2021. So the point of all this is that it seems the breaks that occurred in 2008 still weren't fixed in 2018, because the market couldn't tolerate even a minimal interest rate. The fed really doesn't want to go back to ZIRP, but as the 2020-21 free money deluge dries up, it's still not clear that the global banking system has recovered from 2008 and is healthy enough to accept anything other than ZIRP.
June 3, 20232 yr 2 hours ago, LlamaLawyer said: Very good thread, thanks @KJP. I think too few people appreciate what the last decade of economics has represented. For almost all of it we had ZIRP (zero interest-rate policy) which basically means banks can always borrow money for almost free, sometimes for literally free, and in occasionally even for negative interest rates. Money is never free. Post-2008, the cost of borrowing was shifted from the borrowers to savers who earned almost zero interest without taking relatively large risks - larger than the borrowers were taking. I hope we never see ZIRP again. It rewards profligacy and discourages thrift, which is the best way for the lower income folks to build their assets. Remember: It's the Year of the Snake
June 4, 20232 yr A counterpoint Why the U.S. Remains Far From Recession The pandemic’s aftereffects fuel economic resilience despite rising interest rates https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-the-u-s-remains-far-from-recession-5d07fe49?st=lbjwureqd1f1x17 "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
June 4, 20232 yr 48 minutes ago, GCrites80s said: Equities markets got spoiled under ZIRP. They got addicted to it. In the distant past, people bought stocks for a combination of capital gains and dividends. With low interest rates, dividends became less important or even irrelevant. The lack of dividend and bond income motivated the rise of REITs.
June 4, 20232 yr 2 hours ago, Lazarus said: In the distant past, people bought stocks for a combination of capital gains and dividends. With low interest rates, dividends became less important or even irrelevant. The lack of dividend and bond income motivated the rise of REITs. When treasuries are paying over 5% in some cases the returns on REITS are not as appealing.
June 7, 20232 yr "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
June 7, 20232 yr 9 hours ago, KJP said: That's good news! Hopefully we can see some more gains in other high paying jobs like medicine. Need workers, though!
June 8, 20232 yr On 5/31/2023 at 8:42 AM, TBideon said: I don't know about all that, but the commercial real estate bomb is scary as hell. There really isn't an answer for filling millions of office and retail propeties across the country, especially in downtowns, unless RTO becomes mandatory and retail spending habits reverse. More on this theme, from The Atlantic (free content offered via MSN): The Next Crisis Will Start With Empty Office Buildings https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/the-next-crisis-will-start-with-empty-office-buildings/ar-AA1ceEKg Post-pandemic, kids are back in school, retirees are back on cruise ships, and physical stores are doing better than expected. But offices are struggling perhaps more than most casual observers realize, and the consequences for landlords, banks, municipal governments, and even individual portfolios will be far-reaching. In some cases, they will be catastrophic. But this crisis, like all crises, also represents an opportunity to reconsider many of our assumptions about work and cities. ========================
June 8, 20232 yr 1 hour ago, Gramarye said: Post-pandemic, kids are back in school, retirees are back on cruise ships, and physical stores are doing better than expected. But offices are struggling perhaps more than most casual observers realize, and the consequences for landlords, banks, municipal governments, and even individual portfolios will be far-reaching. In some cases, they will be catastrophic. It's a bit crazy how everyone agrees that kids benefit from socializing and learning at a real, physical school, but somehow adults working at companies are different.
June 8, 20232 yr 4 minutes ago, Lazarus said: It's a bit crazy how everyone agrees that kids benefit from socializing and learning at a real, physical school, but somehow adults working at companies are different. I know they use the excuse, "well we can do the same thing from home," but there absolutely is a difference in my work day and my mood depending on whether I'm in the office or at home. The real issue here is that companies have been wringing employees dry to the point that in order to live a "middle class" life, you and your spouse need 40-60 hour jobs that require you to be in an office that entire time (circa 2019). This means that you don't get to spend quality time with your kids, except on weekends, and half the money you make goes to daycare expenses. So while employees say they see no point to coming into the office, there really could be family and daycare cost implications to it as well. Yes, I'm sure plenty of 20-somethings love being able to sit back at home and watch Netflix while they work, but that doesn't represent the majority of workers.
June 8, 20232 yr 38 minutes ago, 10albersa said: I know they use the excuse, "well we can do the same thing from home," but there absolutely is a difference in my work day and my mood depending on whether I'm in the office or at home. The real issue here is that companies have been wringing employees dry to the point that in order to live a "middle class" life, you and your spouse need 40-60 hour jobs that require you to be in an office that entire time (circa 2019). This means that you don't get to spend quality time with your kids, except on weekends, and half the money you make goes to daycare expenses. So while employees say they see no point to coming into the office, there really could be family and daycare cost implications to it as well. Yes, I'm sure plenty of 20-somethings love being able to sit back at home and watch Netflix while they work, but that doesn't represent the majority of workers. I'm sure there are just as many lazy 30, 40, 50, and 60 somethings.
June 8, 20232 yr Going back to the office back in 2021 for my wife and I meant committing to $32,000 a year for childcare. It also was a culture shock for us and them going from spending more time with them to them asking why I couldn't stay home (little kids don't understand pandemics or the economy and just see it as mom and dad aren't spending time with us anymore and are taking us to daycare now). I think for many people it's two things; one they felt a certain work/life balance during the pandemic and work from home that they had never felt before and would like to keep and two, they need a pay raise because it is more obvious than ever how much added cost there is to commuting in to an office. Childcare, cars, transit, gas, parking, eating out lunch etc. plus the insane inflation we have had since 2020 and you want people to go back to the office with no cost of living raise at all? That's bulls**t and people know it's bulls**t. It's not laziness it's a malaise caused by the reality of going back to being an underpaid cog in broken ass machine.
June 8, 20232 yr 1 hour ago, 10albersa said: I know they use the excuse, "well we can do the same thing from home," but there absolutely is a difference in my work day and my mood depending on whether I'm in the office or at home. The real issue here is that companies have been wringing employees dry to the point that in order to live a "middle class" life, you and your spouse need 40-60 hour jobs that require you to be in an office that entire time (circa 2019). This means that you don't get to spend quality time with your kids, except on weekends, and half the money you make goes to daycare expenses. So while employees say they see no point to coming into the office, there really could be family and daycare cost implications to it as well. Yes, I'm sure plenty of 20-somethings love being able to sit back at home and watch Netflix while they work, but that doesn't represent the majority of workers. The traditional office environment favors the schmoozers and office politicians over the productive people that are more task oriented.
June 8, 20232 yr 14 minutes ago, ucgrady said: Going back to the office back in 2021 for my wife and I meant committing to $32,000 a year for childcare. Low-cost childcare and health insurance would go a long way to making it easier for entrepreneurs with families to start their own business, and would go a long way toward helping poor families struggling to climb out of poverty. If we could somehow guarantee 9-5 childcare for a small percentage of income it would be a boost to an economy that needs workers. Send me more engineers, please!
June 8, 20232 yr 4 minutes ago, E Rocc said: The traditional office environment favors the schmoozers and office politicians over the productive people that are more task oriented. During WFH, the schmoozers in my office had to resort to email copying the world on every little task they completed. Making sure everyone knew that they were singlehandedly carrying the day....lol It was so transparent. Edited June 8, 20232 yr by freefourur
June 8, 20232 yr 1 hour ago, Lazarus said: It's a bit crazy how everyone agrees that kids benefit from socializing and learning at a real, physical school, but somehow adults working at companies are different. But per @ucgrady's point, kids also benefit from more time with parents (not to mention the parents benefit financially from any arrangement that lets the kids stay home), though of course part of the dilemma of WFH is that you sometimes need to keep the kids at arm's length so you can focus on work. But still, the typical white-collar office worker isn't working on mission-critical documents and communications for 8 straight hours.
June 8, 20232 yr Everybody talks about how good WFH is for people who already have kids but there will be a lot fewer kids if WFH keeps up. I'm not saying "get with a co-worker" but through their personal network you meet a lot of people. That way people don't have to depend so much on their friggin' high school.
June 8, 20232 yr 1 minute ago, GCrites80s said: Everybody talks about how good WFH is for people who already have kids but there will be a lot fewer kids if WFH keeps up. I'm not saying "get with a co-worker" but through their personal network you meet a lot of people. That way people don't have to depend so much on their friggin' high school. More and more people meet through online dating sites, though, and those are workplace-independent. Also, freeing up commuting time and letting time be more flexible during the day would also allow more time for meeting people. How frequently do people really marry someone they met through a coworker these days?
June 8, 20232 yr 6 minutes ago, Gramarye said: More and more people meet through online dating sites, though, and those are workplace-independent. Also, freeing up commuting time and letting time be more flexible during the day would also allow more time for meeting people. How frequently do people really marry someone they met through a coworker these days? Most places I've worked discourage such things, especially since the whole Thomas-Hill controversy redefined "sexual harassment". In fact, Progressive is considered unique because they more or less encourage it. Edited June 8, 20232 yr by E Rocc
June 8, 20232 yr 32 minutes ago, Gramarye said: How frequently do people really marry someone they met through a coworker these days? It's fairly common in restaurants. Less so at offices.
June 8, 20232 yr Office romances have obvious drawbacks, but office friendships can be beneficial, especially for those who are younger and/or new to a city, in particular for introverts or those with few friends and hobbies. You just gotta get out there to meet people, and a happy hour after work sure beats going home and playing it safe swiping on your phone.
June 8, 20232 yr Especially since apps only work for outgoing people of secure attachment style. So maybe 30 percent of the population. And that's before you lose all the people grossed out by the commitidization of human beings by apps. What's going to happen if people have to go back to meeting their mates in high school is all that divorce and bad relationships seen from relationships that came from that requirement back in the 50s and 60s when people didn't go to college and worked 100 percent gender-segregated jobs.
June 8, 20232 yr 20 minutes ago, Lazarus said: It's fairly common in restaurants. Less so at offices. A friend of mine from college (who didn't finish) refused to leave serving until he found a wife. Somebody warned him how hard it is to find one when you work jobs that pay well for men who didn't graduate college. Sure enough he would up being a superintendent of a golf course, a job that fulfilled its stereotype of being you and one teenager or retiree.
June 8, 20232 yr 1 hour ago, GCrites80s said: Everybody talks about how good WFH is for people who already have kids but there will be a lot fewer kids if WFH keeps up. I'm not saying "get with a co-worker" but through their personal network you meet a lot of people. That way people don't have to depend so much on their friggin' high school. although, if married or committed couples are working from home together, there is definitely more baby making time.
June 8, 20232 yr So in many ways, WFH is good for people in (healthy) relationships, bad for those who aren't in one
June 8, 20232 yr Not sure if this is the right thread, but this news is impressive: 3,000 San Francisco hotel rooms are being shut down. Public safety is the excuse, but business must be lousy as well. "Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. announced this week that it stopped making payments on a $725 million loan that secured both its 1,921-room Hilton San Francisco Union Square and 1,024-room Parc 55 San Francisco properties and expects to remove them from its portfolio, citing several "major challenges" in the California city." Edit: Maybe I'm being too gloom-and-doom here. The article said the owner will stop making payments on the mortgages. It does not specifically say the hotels will cease operating. The hotels could continue to operate even if the buildings are in bankruptcy. Didn't Renaissance Cleveland, in fact, do that? https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/major-hotelier-abandoning-san-francisco-properties-says-city-s-path-to-recovery-remains-clouded/ar-AA1cfGKx?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=f3fe20a0e78c47518247c159f7dc3ee7&ei=11 Remember: It's the Year of the Snake
June 8, 20232 yr 1 hour ago, Lazarus said: It's fairly common in restaurants. Less so at offices. Super common in bars, both with customers and co-workers.
June 8, 20232 yr 2 minutes ago, E Rocc said: Super common in bars, both with customers and co-workers. My cousin met her husband while both worked at The Old Bag of Nails: https://oldbagofnails.com/
Create an account or sign in to comment