June 8, 20232 yr 20 minutes ago, Dougal said: Not sure if this is the right thread, but this news is impressive: 3,000 San Francisco hotel rooms are being shut down. Public safety is the excuse, but business must be lousy as well. "Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. announced this week that it stopped making payments on a $725 million loan that secured both its 1,921-room Hilton San Francisco Union Square and 1,024-room Parc 55 San Francisco properties and expects to remove them from its portfolio, citing several "major challenges" in the California city." Edit: Maybe I'm being too gloom-and-doom here. The article said the owner will stop making payments on the mortgages. It does not specifically say the hotels will cease operating. The hotels could continue to operate even if the buildings are in bankruptcy. Didn't Renaissance Cleveland, in fact, do that? https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/major-hotelier-abandoning-san-francisco-properties-says-city-s-path-to-recovery-remains-clouded/ar-AA1cfGKx?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=f3fe20a0e78c47518247c159f7dc3ee7&ei=11 (1) Many companies continue to operate in bankruptcy. (2) Ceasing making payments on a loan, even the primary mortgage, is not a "bankruptcy." It obviously can lead to one, but there are many ways of dealing with distressed debt and distressed assets. Failure to make loan payments is a default. There are many paths in the turnaround and workout world after such an event. If the properties are cash-flow positive without debt service, the primary lenders can often find ways to keep the "better alive than dead" commercial properties operating. When the property is cash-flow negative whatever the banks do, though, then it's more likely to be time to turn out the lights. If the properties are completely inviable as hotels at this point, but are not structurally deficient, well, housing is at such a premium in San Francisco at this point that someone should at least look at how big of a capital investment it would take to do a residential conversion. Then see if they could acquire the property (maybe at short sale) at a price that leaves enough budget room to do that conversion. After all, "this property is not worth $725 million" is not the same thing as "this property is worthless."
June 8, 20232 yr 34 minutes ago, Dougal said: Not sure if this is the right thread, but this news is impressive: 3,000 San Francisco hotel rooms are being shut down. Public safety is the excuse, but business must be lousy as well. "Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. announced this week that it stopped making payments on a $725 million loan that secured both its 1,921-room Hilton San Francisco Union Square and 1,024-room Parc 55 San Francisco properties and expects to remove them from its portfolio, citing several "major challenges" in the California city." Edit: Maybe I'm being too gloom-and-doom here. The article said the owner will stop making payments on the mortgages. It does not specifically say the hotels will cease operating. The hotels could continue to operate even if the buildings are in bankruptcy. Didn't Renaissance Cleveland, in fact, do that? https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/major-hotelier-abandoning-san-francisco-properties-says-city-s-path-to-recovery-remains-clouded/ar-AA1cfGKx?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=f3fe20a0e78c47518247c159f7dc3ee7&ei=11 Who do they think they are, Twitter?
June 8, 20232 yr 3 hours ago, 10albersa said: Yes, I'm sure plenty of 20-somethings love being able to sit back at home and watch Netflix while they work, but that doesn't represent the majority of workers. If someone gets their work done, this shouldn’t even matter. If a job can be done at home, let it be done at home.
June 8, 20232 yr 37 minutes ago, Gramarye said: (2) Ceasing making payments on a loan, even the primary mortgage, is not a "bankruptcy." It obviously can lead to one, but there are many ways of dealing with distressed debt and distressed assets. Failure to make loan payments is a default. There are many paths in the turnaround and workout world after such an event. If the properties are cash-flow positive without debt service, the primary lenders can often find ways to keep the "better alive than dead" commercial properties operating. When the property is cash-flow negative whatever the banks do, though, then it's more likely to be time to turn out the lights. @Dougal Also, it should be noted that Park Hotels is far from bankrupt but they see the asset as a drag on earnings for the next 5+ years and do not see feel it is worth putting more money into the deal to keep it afloat. In this case, they are just giving the bank the keys and walking away from the property. It is now up to the bank to re-market it how they see best fit. Chances are, it will be sold for pennies on the dollar. Heck, Park Hotels may even be the buyer of the property at that point and will now own the asset much cheaper and with a more affordable payment to reinvest in the property. The bondholders on the current loan will not be happy but they are pretty much taking their bath right now anyway so the final outcome is a bit irrelevant. Given the complex nature of these types of commercial mortgages, it is sometimes easier to turn over the keys then to try and work things out.
June 8, 20232 yr 1 hour ago, Lazarus said: My cousin met her husband while both worked at The Old Bag of Nails: https://oldbagofnails.com/ I met Holly working at Gee's, she was a customer but she began filling in as a waitress after we got together. The same thing happened with our one bartender, two boyfriends in a row were coworkers.
June 8, 20232 yr I was all hyped and bullish like you wouldn't believe on Monday with the annoucement of the Vision Pro. During the presentation I was having holy s-hit moments throughout: This is the Internet 2.0 we've been awaiting. Entirely new industries with proper VR and AR implementations and development. Legitimate use for the Metaverse, let's call it the Cookverse going forward. Endless corporate and consumer possibilities. The beginning of the end of physical computers, theaters, tvs, and even cell phones. Global changing. Iphone 2007 all over again. The sun rises and won't set. The Indians win 163 games out of 162. Life becomes real Star Trek, not the Paramount nightmares! Great Lakes starts selling Christmas Ale in October and abandons their crappy IPA! I've dialed it back to reality since, but damn was that an exciting day, and it will have enormous global impacts -- just on a slower timetable than I was imagining at the time.
June 12, 20232 yr Is it all night and weekend work though? You couldn't pay me $150K a year to go back to that stuff. It ruined my life. I suppose all night and weekend work is good for people who had accident kids or guys who only care about video games.
June 12, 20232 yr When you shift from money poverty to time poverty a lot of interesting things happen. 1) You buy everything new instead of try to fix things 2) You have to pay people to do things for you that you did for yourself before 3)Everything is closed while you aren't at work or sleeping so you have to negotiate in order to do anything while businesses and other are open 4)Anybody discretionary avoids you so you only talk to mandatories 5)Terrible food 6)Sleep deprivation because phones constantly ring at 8-9AM no matter what your schedule is
June 12, 20232 yr 2 hours ago, GCrites80s said: Is it all night and weekend work though? You couldn't pay me $150K a year to go back to that stuff. It ruined my life. I suppose all night and weekend work is good for people who had accident kids or guys who only care about video games. I don't know about this job in particular (maybe it's cold storage?), but the prevailing warehouse wages in Ohio are now $19-23, with some at $25 or more. Nobody can pass a drug test and nobody shows up on time, which is why they're having to pay more and more. Somebody's got to work at night and on the weekends, and a lot of people like those hours. There are guys who like working third shift and have no interest in changing to days.
June 12, 20232 yr Good for them. They probably have 5 kids already and transfer all childcare to their 3 babies' mommas. Today's work situations have no idea that things don't work like that for the majority of people thinking it's the '70s or something. People went to college. Edited June 12, 20232 yr by GCrites80s
June 12, 20232 yr I suppose the difference is that in the '80s and '90s those guys were always getting laid off whereas today they are gold.
June 12, 20232 yr 8 hours ago, GCrites80s said: When you shift from money poverty to time poverty a lot of interesting things happen. 1) You buy everything new instead of try to fix things 2) You have to pay people to do things for you that you did for yourself before 3)Everything is closed while you aren't at work or sleeping so you have to negotiate in order to do anything while businesses and other are open 4)Anybody discretionary avoids you so you only talk to mandatories 5)Terrible food 6)Sleep deprivation because phones constantly ring at 8-9AM no matter what your schedule is I've run third a few times going back to the mid 90s. My brother has worked it for a long time. 2 and 3 depends on when you sleep and that's flexible. In fact, you can shop at the least crowded times, when stores open. 4 can be a benefit, to some people. 5 I would straight disagree. 6 was likely a thing then, isn't now. Ringers can be turned off and voice mail is ubiquitous.
June 12, 20232 yr Then you wind up in voice mail jail for two days. Better off taking care of it at the time than turning one phone call into five.
June 12, 20232 yr 11 hours ago, GCrites80s said: Is it all night and weekend work though? You couldn't pay me $150K a year to go back to that stuff. It ruined my life. I suppose all night and weekend work is good for people who had accident kids or guys who only care about video games. Some people love those hours. There is a subsect of the population who thrive at that time and would hate to be first shift. They love that it pays more and works better with their schedules. There are tradeoffs for sure but lots of people do love those hours. Heck, most news journalists work those hours. Different strokes for different folks.
June 12, 20232 yr If there were enough people that actually wanted to work those hours you wouldn't have to pay any more than during weekdays.
June 12, 20232 yr 9 hours ago, Lazarus said: Nobody can pass a drug test and nobody shows up on time... 1) Why are factories drug testing? What does that achieve? It's totally different if you have a CDL or get into a crash at the workplace on the clock, but having worked third shift menial factory work there's no reason to test. 2) This has always been a problem, it's nothing new - no call no show. If companies hired people instead of using temp agencies that pay crap and treat you like crap maybe it wouldn't be as big of an issue. I got accused of no call now showing when I had to quit my summer job to go back to school and was blackballed from the temp agency when I tried to apply over the next break. Kind of funny that nowadays nobody wants to work for them! Factories need to pay more because there are plenty of other decent paying opportunities that don't involve stuffing sundae cups into a machine for 8 hours or standing in a freezer stacking things for 8 hours for $1 more an hour.
June 12, 20232 yr 9 minutes ago, GISguy said: 1) Why are factories drug testing? What does that achieve? It's totally different if you have a CDL or get into a crash at the workplace on the clock, but having worked third shift menial factory work there's no reason to test. 2) This has always been a problem, it's nothing new - no call no show. If companies hired people instead of using temp agencies that pay crap and treat you like crap maybe it wouldn't be as big of an issue. I got accused of no call now showing when I had to quit my summer job to go back to school and was blackballed from the temp agency when I tried to apply over the next break. Kind of funny that nowadays nobody wants to work for them! Factories need to pay more because there are plenty of other decent paying opportunities that don't involve stuffing sundae cups into a machine for 8 hours or standing in a freezer stacking things for 8 hours for $1 more an hour. I've been a safety manager for a couple of manufacturing companies. 1) Insurance/workman's comp insists. I agree it's dumb to test for pot because it can show up a month after you've smoked it. But they insist. 2) If you're operating a machine that can move by itself you need to be alert. No call/no show isn't any worse than it was but calling off and being on time definitely is.
June 12, 20232 yr 27 minutes ago, GISguy said: 1) Why are factories drug testing? About two years ago we had a guy fall off the toilet with a needle in his arm. About 6 years ago we had a manager back a fork lift over another manager at about 5:30pm on a Friday, after they had drank their customary 4:30pm beers in the warehouse office. The guy who was run over passed out from the pain and is now on permanent disability. The HR lady lost her job over that one. Now I hear that she works at Everything But the House, which is well-known as the sleaziest and worst-run company in Cincinnati. I've been sensing this sort of "drugs are no big deal" thing getting stronger. We are told that enforcing drug laws is "discriminatory" and an "injustice". It's got to be coming from Twitter or Reddit or wherever these ridiculous beliefs originate and fester. A lot of warehouses allow their crews to operate machinery with one Apple air pod in one ear. This is...bad. Your ears are two more eyes.
June 12, 20232 yr 28 minutes ago, E Rocc said: 1) Insurance/workman's comp insists. I agree it's dumb to test for pot because it can show up a month after you've smoked it. But they insist. This is false. No monopolistic state, NCCI, or bureau state work comp programs require pre-employment drug screening. There are drug free workplace credits that employers can qualify for, however.
June 12, 20232 yr 31 minutes ago, Lazarus said: About 6 years ago we had a manager back a fork lift over another manager at about 5:30pm on a Friday, after they had drank their customary 4:30pm beers in the warehouse office. The guy who was run over passed out from the pain and is now on permanent disability. The HR lady lost her job over that one. Now I hear that she works at Everything But the House, which is well-known as the sleaziest and worst-run company in Cincinnati. You'd already get drug tested for operating machinery and crashing it or a workplace injury. This is nothing new. 31 minutes ago, Lazarus said: I've been sensing this sort of "drugs are no big deal" thing getting stronger. We are told that enforcing drug laws is "discriminatory" and an "injustice". It's got to be coming from Twitter or Reddit or wherever these ridiculous beliefs originate and fester. If you smoke pot after work off the clock (like many factory workers do the post work beers/liquor) why does it matter? Nobody is advocating for the ability to smoke/drink/shoot up on the job. Edited June 12, 20232 yr by GISguy
June 12, 20232 yr Hopefully this will impact inflation and add liquidity to the market, especially construction Transportation prices fall at fastest-ever pace in May 6.5-year-old supply chain activity index sees contraction for first time https://www.freightwaves.com/news/transportation-prices-fall-at-fastest-ever-pace-in-may/amp "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
June 12, 20232 yr 54 minutes ago, GISguy said: You'd already get drug tested for operating machinery and crashing it or a workplace injury. This is nothing new. If you smoke pot after work off the clock (like many factory workers do the post work beers/liquor) why does it matter? Nobody is advocating for the ability to smoke/drink/shoot up on the job. Until they develop testing for RECENT marijuana use, it will continue to be a problem. It's unfortunate that a kid that smokes a joint 2 weeks earlier can lose his job because he's on a forklift and tests positive for weed. This is a huge issue with young African Americans, who tend to use weed more than alcohol.
June 12, 20232 yr 1 hour ago, Lazarus said: About two years ago we had a guy fall off the toilet with a needle in his arm. About 6 years ago we had a manager back a fork lift over another manager at about 5:30pm on a Friday, after they had drank their customary 4:30pm beers in the warehouse office. The guy who was run over passed out from the pain and is now on permanent disability. The HR lady lost her job over that one. Now I hear that she works at Everything But the House, which is well-known as the sleaziest and worst-run company in Cincinnati. I've been sensing this sort of "drugs are no big deal" thing getting stronger. We are told that enforcing drug laws is "discriminatory" and an "injustice". It's got to be coming from Twitter or Reddit or wherever these ridiculous beliefs originate and fester. A lot of warehouses allow their crews to operate machinery with one Apple air pod in one ear. This is...bad. Your ears are two more eyes. None of these examples have anything to do with, nor would they be prevented by, drug testing for marijuana. When is the last time I-71 turned a profit?
June 12, 20232 yr 19 minutes ago, Cleburger said: Until they develop testing for RECENT marijuana use, it will continue to be a problem. It's unfortunate that a kid that smokes a joint 2 weeks earlier can lose his job because he's on a forklift and tests positive for weed. This is a huge issue with young African Americans, who tend to use weed more than alcohol. I'm pretty sure blood and mouth swab tests are both like this but piss tests are cheaper and "traditional".
June 12, 20232 yr "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
June 12, 20232 yr 4% is the goal tomorrow morning, folks. Should be an interesting day in the markets.
June 12, 20232 yr 4 hours ago, Boomerang_Brian said: None of these examples have anything to do with, nor would they be prevented by, drug testing for marijuana. Nor would it prevent an employee from taking a lunch break, getting high, then getting injured on machinery when he gets back on the job. At the end of the day, the employer will still need to pay the workers comp claim.
June 12, 20232 yr 1 hour ago, KJP said: Why the Fed's tightening seems not to matter so much is because the Treasury is countering with a massive stimulus (the $2 trillion deficit) at the same time. But for that deficit and the Biden Admin's inability to raise taxes, I think the Fed's actions would have had the economy in a significant recession by now. That's just me, though. I've not heard or read my opinion anywhere else. Remember: It's the Year of the Snake
June 12, 20232 yr 49 minutes ago, Brutus_buckeye said: Nor would it prevent an employee from taking a lunch break, getting high, then getting injured on machinery when he gets back on the job. At the end of the day, the employer will still need to pay the workers comp claim. People should never be allowed to drink alcohol, because if we allowed them to ever drink, then they might take a break, get drunk, then get injured on machinery when they get back on the job. At the end of the day, the employer will still need to pay the workers comp claim. Which also happened to be one of Jake’s examples. Temperance for all! Edit: after rereading, maybe this was your point? When is the last time I-71 turned a profit?
June 13, 20232 yr Overall CPI is down to 4.0% for May. US Core CPI down to 5.3% YOY. It looks like inflation is easing and maybe interest rates will stay flat or reduced.
June 13, 20232 yr 20 hours ago, Boomerang_Brian said: People should never be allowed to drink alcohol, because if we allowed them to ever drink, then they might take a break, get drunk, then get injured on machinery when they get back on the job. At the end of the day, the employer will still need to pay the workers comp claim. Which also happened to be one of Jake’s examples. Temperance for all! Edit: after rereading, maybe this was your point? my point was that workers comp law is a no fault law. The only factor that matters is if the person gets injured while in the scope of their employment. Even if the person is responsible for causing their own injury, the company is liable to pay under workers comp law. The big difference is that if the person is drunk, the company can fire them, but they still need to pay the workers comp claim for the injuries, the only benefit to the company is that they will not have to pay continuing wages while the employee is injured.
June 13, 20232 yr 1 hour ago, Brutus_buckeye said: my point was that workers comp law is a no fault law. The only factor that matters is if the person gets injured while in the scope of their employment. Even if the person is responsible for causing their own injury, the company is liable to pay under workers comp law. The big difference is that if the person is drunk, the company can fire them, but they still need to pay the workers comp claim for the injuries, the only benefit to the company is that they will not have to pay continuing wages while the employee is injured. True, though too many of these and their premiums would go through the roof. Which is why companies test employees (and hopefully to keep other non-drunk employees safe!)
June 14, 20232 yr 8 hours ago, Cleburger said: True, though too many of these and their premiums would go through the roof. Which is why companies test employees (and hopefully to keep other non-drunk employees safe!) The continuing wages is what crushes companies workers comp premiums. Without having to pay for time off, the workers comp costs would not be too bad.
June 28, 20231 yr It's the economy, stupid. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
July 2, 20231 yr West Hollywood, CA, minimum wage now tops $19/hr: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-07-01/west-hollywoods-minimum-wage-tops-19-an-hour-highest-in-nation
July 3, 20231 yr “These pay increases are about superficiality and about opportunistic politicians who are just trying to make a name for themselves..." Who gave this asshole a computer? $19 an hour isn't even $40,000 a year after taxes, and he's complaining? God forbid he pays his workers rather than taxpayers via supplemental Medicaid and SSI subsidies. And my hunch is West Hollywood isn't exactly a cheap place. No different than the conservative loons screaming about how businesses would collapse without child labor 100 years ago. Edited July 3, 20231 yr by TBideon
July 6, 20231 yr Kaboom! US ADP #Nonfarm Employment Change June Actual: 497K Forecast: 228K Previous: 267K https://mettisglobal.news/u-s-nonfarm-employment-surges-by-497k-in-june-adp/ "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
July 6, 20231 yr Anyone notice how job growth always explodes when a Democrat is in the White House? If you love America and jobs, vote blue. Historically, the United States economy did better on average when Democrats were US President than when Republicans were US President. This was certainly true over the last several decades. The reasons for this are uncertain and debated.[1][2] Ten of the 11 US recessions between 1953 and 2020 began under Republican US Presidents. https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._economic_performance_under_Democratic_and_Republican_presidents
July 13, 20231 yr 1 hour ago, GCrites said: Inflation is now at or below historic average. Yet another box checked of an economy that is doing pretty damn good. Of course this means the GOP attacks on social liberties, and the fake cries of of Christian persecution commence. harder than ever. The drag queens and the trans population are feeling the fake outrage and wrath already. I'm predicting a return to the "War on Christmas" circus this year as well.
July 13, 20231 yr 4.9% in May 4% in June 3% in July I don't know what the next few months of readings will be, but I don't think we've seen the lowest point for inflation. And unfortunately, I suspect the lowest CPI reading this cycle will be below zero. According to CME group there's still a >90% chance of a rate hike this month, which is nuts to me. I know 3% is still a little hotter than they want, but there are flashing warning signs of economic slowdown right now. The Fed's balance sheet is also (finally) at the lowest point since the pandemic as they continue to pursue QT. Shouldn't they try to focus on shrinking their balance sheet before it's too late to ever do so? I would love to be proven wrong and have a soft landing here, but the yield curve and manufacturing surveys are just bad. My guess is we are in the calm before the storm. For comparison, here was the headline on WSJ.com on this day in 2007: "THE DOW INDUSTRIALS SURGED 283.86, or 2.1%, to a record 13861.73, their biggest gain in nearly four years. The rally continues a pattern of seemingly defiant bullishness by uneasy investors." In other words, everybody suspected deep down that something wasn't right, but the headline news was positive. If the 3 month 10 year spread is predictive (which it was in 2007, and always has been so far), we enter recession between Q4 2023 and Q2 2024.
July 18, 20231 yr GOLDMAN: "We are cutting our probability that a US recession will start in the next 12 months further from 25% to 20% .. far below the 54% median .. the recent data have reinforced our confidence that bringing inflation down to an acceptable level will not require a recession... "There are strong fundamental reasons to expect ongoing #disinflation. Used car prices are sliding .. rent inflation still has a long way to fall before it catches up with the message from median asking rents, and the labor market has continued to rebalance." "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
July 18, 20231 yr On 7/13/2023 at 4:02 PM, LlamaLawyer said: "THE DOW INDUSTRIALS SURGED 283.86, or 2.1%, to a record 13861.73, their biggest gain in nearly four years. The rally continues a pattern of seemingly defiant bullishness by uneasy investors." That’s an apples to oranges comparison, though. The stock market is not the economy. The CPI, however, is much closer to being so. I’m not saying that there isn’t a recession on the horizon. But an irrational DJIA rally 15 years ago is not the same thing as the improving fundamentals that we are seeing today.
July 21, 20231 yr MORGAN STANLEY: “.. We are making a sizable upward revision to #GDP this year (+0.7pp to 1.3% 4Q/4Q) with the largest contribution coming from .. stronger than expected .. public investment .. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act .. is driving a boom ..” [Zentner] More... https://www.forexlive.com/news/morgan-stanley-revise-their-us-gdp-forecast-to-13-from-06-citing-biden-boom-20230721/ Plus... "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
July 21, 20231 yr On 7/18/2023 at 7:14 AM, brtshrcegr said: That’s an apples to oranges comparison, though. The stock market is not the economy. The CPI, however, is much closer to being so. I’m not saying that there isn’t a recession on the horizon. But an irrational DJIA rally 15 years ago is not the same thing as the improving fundamentals that we are seeing today. In an economy addicted to ZIRP that had to spend two years on the wagon of course Wall Street is going to rave when it feels there aren't going to be any more rate increases.
July 21, 20231 yr There are a lot of good things happening, and I'm happy to be proven wrong on the recession prognostication. I'm just saying that if we avoid a recession with yield curve and manufacturing surveys the way they are, that will be unprecedented. @brtshrcegr Agreed, the stock market is definitely not the economy. I'm just pointing out that there is historical precedent for markets, investors, and pundits feeling giddy and optimistic right before everything goes off a cliff.
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