ADP shows 693,000 jobs lost in December

 

"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. private-sector firms shed 693,000 jobs in December, far worse than expected, according to the ADP employment index released Wednesday.

 

Employment in the services sector fell by 473,000, while employment in the goods-producing sectors fell by 220,000.

Large firms cut 91,000 jobs, medium-sized firms cut 321,000 jobs and small firms cut 281,000 jobs.

 

"Sharply falling employment at medium- and small-size businesses clearly indicates that the recession has now spread well beyond manufacturing and housing-related activities," said economists for Macroeconomics Advisers in a press release."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/ADP-shows-693000-jobs-lost/story.aspx?guid={11A2598F-2D9D-48D2-A934-144BA5E1BB9C}

 

These numbers are starting to get close to the 'scary' levels. I think we will see even larger numbers over the next few months. This is far from being over.

people like Madoff should get the death penalty.

people like Madoff should get the death penalty.

 

Maybe not the death penalty, but life in prison should be assured. There are many others on Wall Street, etc... that deserve the same thing. Paulson should be one of the top candidates.

Sentenced to live out their days free but in dire poverty.  Public housing only, and they have a permanent credit score around 300.  They're allowed to work but most of their wages are garnished.

Sentenced to live out their days free but in dire poverty.  Public housing only, and they have a permanent credit score around 300.  They're allowed to work but most of their wages are garnished.

 

Not a bad idea. It has been truly amazing, at times, to watch the attitudes of the wealthy on wall street through this financial/recession. They masterminded most of this mess but still feel they shouldn't have to pay any of the consequences.

ADP shows 693,000 jobs lost in December

 

 

 

Rage - these are ADP's numbers.  I haven't paid close attention lately, but how has ADP's numbers been comparing to the government numbers that come out 2 days later?  Seems that gov't numbers might be worse than ADP in recent months, but I could have that backward.  My company laid off a few people in December (my boss included), but did a bigger layoff back in late November.

 

Either they accept the poverty plan, or then we bring out the pitchforks and torches.  None of them should come through this with any degree of comfort.

ADP shows 693,000 jobs lost in December

 

 

 

Rage - these are ADP's numbers. I haven't paid close attention lately, but how has ADP's numbers been comparing to the government numbers that come out 2 days later? Seems that gov't numbers might be worse than ADP in recent months, but I could have that backward. My company laid off a few people in December (my boss included), but did a bigger layoff back in late November.

 

 

Without going back through the tread, I believe the Government numbers have been worse than the ADP numbers over the last few months.

 

Do you think we will hit the million a month mark?

I think an unusually large number of people were let go in December so year-end numbers would be better, and so companies could book the severance costs in 2008.  I think a second set of people will be let go in late January/early February when the actual numbers from the Holiday retail sales come in.  After that, layoffs may slow to a more steady, trending range.

 

I doubt we see a million job losses this month from the government, or for any month in 2009 either.  A million job losses in a single month is just incomprehensible to me.  We have about 135 million jobs in this country, if I recall correctly.

 

What's the minimum number of jobs we need in this nation to support all 310 million of us?

 

What's the minimum number of jobs we need in this nation to support all 310 million of us?

 

That depends on what those jobs pay.  If one by itself can support a family, then we need x number of jobs.  If it takes two incomes, we need 2x jobs to support the same exact population.  We also subtract day care out of disposable income under the 2x scenario.  So... pay people decently and everything improves. 

Did everyone see Nobel prize of economics winner Krugman's latest on the recession? It ran in the print edition of the PD yesterday.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/05/opinion/05krugman.html?ref=opinion

There's a recession?  :?

There's a recession?  :?

 

I think the official definition is: A recession occurs when the rest of the country has two consecutive quarters of an economy resembling that of Northeast Ohio.

^Huh? Was that supposed to be funny?

^Huh? Was that supposed to be funny?

 

Apparently it was not.

I thought it was funny.  The rest of the country has systematically abandoned our region and its economy.  They had become comfortable in the assumtions that industry collapses and mass layoffs only happen in places like Cleveland, and that what happens in Cleveland is Cleveland's problem alone.  Now we're all in the same fix, and I find that hi-larious.

There's a recession?  :?

 

you must be a Republican :wink:

327,

 

You are right; the rest of the country has abandoned the region and the Rust Belt in general, and there is some irony in our current predicament. However, it's a shame it took maybe one of the worst economic downturns in seventy years for the rest of America to wake up. I guess its human nature not to care until it impacts your life.

 

There's a recession?  :?

 

you must be a Republican ;)

 

Now that's funny!  That's damn right hillarious! LMAO!

To the question about the ADP numbers, I guess their statisticians did some futzing around to make them closer to the fed numbers, so these should be closer (and I think I saw that they redid their November numbers using the new math and it looks bad as well, like 400k lost jobs).

 

It is worth noting that some of the union battles in the later 30s was about setting wages so that women (and children) were excluded from the work force. The idea was that a good manufacturing job should be able to support a family of 5 or so. The 'Fifties' was very much an after-effect of those contracts in peace time, thus expanded difference between men and women compared to the 20s-40s.

There's a recession?  

 

You sound like my brother-in-law.  But then again, he hasn't been a much of a participant in the working world for several years now.  I gues its hard to identify the start and end of an economic cycle when you're constantly out of work.

 

^Huh? Was that supposed to be funny?

 

I thought it was rather funny.

 

Yes, the rest of the country is finally catching up to Ohio !!!!

There's a recession?

 

You sound like my brother-in-law.  But then again, he hasn't been a much of a participant in the working world for several years now.  I gues its hard to identify the start and end of an economic cycle when you're constantly out of work.

 

^Huh? Was that supposed to be funny?

 

I thought it was rather funny.

 

Yes, the rest of the country is finally catching up to Ohio !!!!

 

I'm like, you can't take it with you!  Besides, I've been very cautious and have planned and saved.

 

I've done what I was suppose to do so I wont ever have to do "what I gotta" do, if the shit were to ever hit the fan.  Outside of utilities and insurance, I have three reoccurring bills, no children, no credit card debt, no car loans, no miscellaneous loans.

 

So in my world there is no recession.  I going to live my life in the manner to which I'm accustomed.

Here's a chart from the WSJ online that shows how certain retailers fared in December. I don't think any surprises are here. Luxury retailers are way down, while those who sell food and essentials had some risk hedge  from the overall slowdown in retail

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/holidaysales/2009/01/07/december-sales-how-retailers-fared-in-holiday-season/trackback/

 

Neiman Marcus	Department	-27.5%	-26.4%	$532
Saks	Department	-19.8%	-18.9%	$363.3

 

Wow!!!

 

I'm not a Needless Markup shopper, but I need to get to one of their stores as I know they'll be having fire sales.

 

Saks I'm not surprise, the store in Beechwood and the Fifth Ave store are damn near giving stuff away.

 

There are bargains to be had kids!!!

 

---

 

 

Also, Macy's announces it will close 11 stores.

We have not seen the worst for the retailers yet. January, Feb. and March are going to be brutal. Add in all the store closing that will be happening and you have a very ugly picture.

Carnage continues with 524,000 jobs lost in Dec.

Unemployment rate rises to 7.2%, the highest in 16 years

 

"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy lost 524,000 jobs in December, closing out the worst year for job losses since World War II, the Labor Department said Friday.

 

Nearly 2.6 million jobs were lost in 2008, with 1.9 million destroyed in just the past four months, according to a survey of work places. It's the biggest job loss in any calendar year since 1945, when 2.75 million jobs were lost as the wartime economy was demobilized.

 

The unemployment rate rose to 7.2%, the highest in 16 years. Unemployment increased by 632,000 to 11.1 million, according to the survey of households. That same household survey showed employment falling by 806,000 in December."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Carnage-continues-524000-jobs-lost/story.aspx?guid={F9716B93-2009-4F9D-A2CC-6890DA427BF2}

January and Feb. numbers are going to be 'shocking'.

We have not seen the worst for the retailers yet. January, Feb. and March are going to be brutal. Add in all the store closing that will be happening and you have a very ugly picture.

 

Yes, that means more bargains! :clap:  February & July are traditionally the slowest retail months.

I wonder how many people are going to give up cable. Everything noteworthy on tv is posted on youtube. You can basically get any movie or tv show and watch it online whenever you want through various sites. You almost have to be a sucker to pay 50+ a month for cable if you're not well off.

I wonder how many people are going to give up cable. Everything noteworthy on tv is posted on youtube. You can basically get any movie or tv show and watch it online whenever you want through various sites. You almost have to be a sucker to pay 50+ a month for cable if you're not well off.

 

I really can't see my family crowded around our tiny computer monitor, which doesn't exactly have a great picture and sound, vs. the TV.  Our TV is old and we got it used but the screen is probably at least twice as big as the computer monitor.  Plus no Tivo.

Well if you have a family I suppose that's different. It's nice to relax and watch tv with other people sometimes. I rent movies for the tv but as far as tv shows like Family Guy, Nip Tuck, Weeds (why pay for showtime just to get one show?) etc. I just watch 'em online. No commercials and I can watch them on my own time (I know, I'm incriminating myself by admitting to it lol). I just think cable is going to be one of the first things to go or the first thing to not get paid if you're broke and struggling during the recession.

 

What's curious about Youtube is that probably 90 percent or more of the content is clips of notable stuff from TV. For example, I hardly ever watched the news on TV for the election. It was much more efficient to just check out the political section of Youtube for all of the Sarah Palin blunders lol. Now you have Viacom suing Youtube, and really, I don't blame them because it's true. Youtube is profiting off of what other companies put millions of dollars into. It's become a one-stop repository for all notable media content. Most of the original content on Youtube by users is incredibly boring imo.

TV is our only source of entertainment. We don't go to the movies or theater anymore, too expensive, we haven't been to a concert in years.  I pretty much never watch TV alone, we always watch it together. And with Tivo, we too have no commercials :)

 

I wonder how many people are going to give up cable. Everything noteworthy on tv is posted on youtube. You can basically get any movie or tv show and watch it online whenever you want through various sites. You almost have to be a sucker to pay 50  a month for cable if you're not well off.

 

Blasphemy!  Hush, I say!

I wonder how many people are going to give up cable. Everything noteworthy on tv is posted on youtube. You can basically get any movie or tv show and watch it online whenever you want through various sites. You almost have to be a sucker to pay 50+ a month for cable if you're not well off.

 

I see people giving up their internet connection well before they give up cable TV...at least in terms of "mass population".

I'd disagree. I think internet has become required for life, whereas cable is luxury. The first that will go is the landline and I think folks will increasingly move toward cheaper cell phone plans.

 

All in all, this keeps tracking to worse case scenarios.

^ I've noticed a lot more people in their mid-to-late 20s moving away from the cell phone, myself included. Some have totally gotten rid of theirs while others leave it at home. Unlike younger people, we remember life before cell phones and the freedom it allowed.

^People run up $250 cell phone bills before they'll pay $100/mo for health care.  I've seen it dozens of times. 

^ I've noticed a lot more people in their mid-to-late 20s moving away from the cell phone, myself included. Some have totally gotten rid of theirs while others leave it at home. Unlike younger people, we remember life before cell phones and the freedom it allowed.

 

I've seen an increase.  Stand alone cell phones are becoming obsolete.  Everyone wants some sort of PDA.

 

Folks my age, can do without them, as cell phones, etc. weren't popular in our life until the mid 90s.

 

Teenagers like my nephews and nieces were born in the age of the Internet & mobile devices so to them having a PDA and being "connected" is normal.

Before cell phones were popular, we had public pay phone all over the place and people didn't look at you crazy for asking to borrow a phone in a restaurant or something. I went to a bar a few months ago and asked the bartender if I could use the phone to call a cab and they told me I couldn't use it. Not having a cell phone now is a little different from not having a cell phone 10-15 years ago.

Before cell phones were popular, we had public pay phone all over the place and people didn't look at you crazy for asking to borrow a phone in a restaurant or something. I went to a bar a few months ago and asked the bartender if I could use the phone to call a cab and they told me I couldn't use it. Not having a cell phone now is a little different from not having a cell phone 10-15 years ago.

 

You don't have a cell phone?  I'm surprised they didnt let you use it.

 

Many businesses are suffering from the loss of the phone profit.  Hotels being the hardest hit.  With cellphones nobody picks up the in room phone.

I know, it should be illegal to deny someone a phone to call a cab when you're intoxicated. They also charged me two separate prices for the same mixed drink - I think they discriminated against me for taking up a bar stool because they think young people don't tip not knowing I worked in the industry but anywho I digress.

^ I've noticed a lot more people in their mid-to-late 20s moving away from the cell phone, myself included. Some have totally gotten rid of theirs while others leave it at home. Unlike younger people, we remember life before cell phones and the freedom it allowed.

 

Allow me to be a whore:

 

http://snipurl.com/9p8mq

I wonder how many people are going to give up cable. Everything noteworthy on tv is posted on youtube. You can basically get any movie or tv show and watch it online whenever you want through various sites. You almost have to be a sucker to pay 50+ a month for cable if you're not well off.

 

I see people giving up their internet connection well before they give up cable TV...at least in terms of "mass population".

 

I don't have either anymore, though I occasionally leach off someone for internet use at home. Not often, though.

As a 19 yr. old male, I love the internet and sadly am dearly attached to my cellphone.

 

I don't watch TV, however. So I doubt I will ever actually get cable, but at some point I think that Television, Internet, and Cable will all just merge into one conglomerate.

 

It is ironic however, that the marketing behind cellphones and wireless technology is all about freedom from boundaries and technological confinement, yet, the less wires we have, the more bound we really are to whatever it is, our jobs, schools, bosses, social networks, friends, family, etc. of course everyone knows what i mean.

^ I've noticed a lot more people in their mid-to-late 20s moving away from the cell phone, myself included. Some have totally gotten rid of theirs while others leave it at home. Unlike younger people, we remember life before cell phones and the freedom it allowed.

 

Allow me to be a whore:

 

http://snipurl.com/9p8mq

 

that article was interesting right up until this passage "legendary journalists Dick Feagler"

 

 

I apologize for not citing a source and not mentioning any names, but while listening to NPR the other day, they had a senior british economy analyst say that he would expect around three years before we even bottom out. . .

Does anyone know where John Maynard Keynes first laid out his "Paradox of Thrift" theory?

 

I'm embarrassed for all the authors and grad students who have posted essays online about it but either didn't do a proper works cited page or didn't bother to go to the original source material.

Alcoa Reports First Loss in Six Years as Demand Falls (Update1)

 

"Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. aluminum producer, reported its first quarterly net loss in six years after prices and demand for the metal plunged.

 

The fourth-quarter net loss of $1.19 billion, or $1.49 a share, compares with net income of $632 million, or 75 cents, a year earlier, New York-based Alcoa said today in a statement. Excluding some items, the loss was 28 cents a share. The average estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 14 analysts was for a per-share loss of 5 cents. Sales fell 19 percent to $5.69 billion.

 

Chief Executive Officer Klaus Kleinfeld is shutting down production, firing workers and trying to sell four units as the credit crisis cuts demand. Aluminum prices are near four-year lows as orders drop from automakers, builders and appliance manufacturers."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTsCEahdqhB0&refer=home

 

Alcoa is usually seen as a 'bell weather' for the earnings report season. Look out below.

 

It's going to be ugly, but I'm increasingly confident that we won't have a repeat of the 30s. The last ten years have been even more ephemeral than the 20s were - I'm guessing it will be a bruising five years of misery in retrospect. I'd put the nadir probably in the middle of next year 2010 - with slow improvement for the next 2.5 after that. It will probably start to feel like a real recovery by election time in 2012.

 

What I don't know is how deep the bottom will be, we might bottom out in the middle of this year and limp along for a year before slowing turning up or (and I hope not) we could keep dropping for another year.

view of the 4th Federal Reserve District...

 

http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2009/0109/02regact.cfm

 

01.07.09

Economic Trends

 

Fourth District Employment Conditions

 

Kyle Fee

 

The District’s unemployment rate remained steady at 7.0 percent for the month of November. The stable unemployment rate reflects an increase of the number of people unemployed (0.5 percent), a decrease in the number of people employed (−0.4 percent) and a decrease in the labor force (−0.4 percent). As it has consistently been since early 2004, the District’s unemployment rate was higher than the nation’s (0.3 percentage point). Since this time last year, the Fourth District’s unemployment rate has increased 1.7 percentage points, while the nation’s has increased 2.0 percentage points.

 

 

Fore more, go to: http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/trends/2009/0109/02regact.cfm