I'm sure the moderators will control the discussion, if necessary.  No one poster gets to choose its direction or tone.

 

Here's where I think you run into problems here, ragerunner.  This board is comprised of a fairly well-informed and highly educated group.  We all know how to access the three news sites you routinely and selectively stream into the thread.  Most of us purposely avoid the slanted/bias sites you also reference on occassion.  We all are generally aware of global economic conditions and the general forecast.  You really don't have to regurgitate the same data points month after month, especially when your viewpoint of the topic is already well-documented and known.  As has been mentioned many times, this is a discussion forum, not a blog.  By turning it into a blog, your political undertones, as much as you might want to deny them, are not nearly as subtle as you think they are.

 

If you already know all this stuff and you know all the places I go. Why even visit this thread? You don't add much information for people to review? You make general comments, tell people they wear tinfoil hats and that you know their political opinions. And if you really want to have a political discussion start another thread and go for it. Plus, its apparent you would be surprised who I vote for.

 

If you find it useless just don't click on the button that sends you to this thread.

 

Apparently some people find this thread of some interest. It has almost 231,000 reads. Add in the original housing/recession thread that had about 250,000 view (if I remember correctly) and you have almost 500,000 reads.

 

And the overwhelming majority of those views probably came from people who were looking for the substantive discussion that is interjected between your bolded and underlined doom and gloom projections.  This is actually the first time I think I realized you started this thread.  At least I have some idea as to where you get your sense of entitlement towards its contents. 

I'm sure the moderators will control the discussion, if necessary.  No one poster gets to choose its direction or tone.

 

Here's where I think you run into problems here, ragerunner.  This board is comprised of a fairly well-informed and highly educated group.  We all know how to access the three news sites you routinely and selectively stream into the thread.  Most of us purposely avoid the slanted/bias sites you also reference on occassion.  We all are generally aware of global economic conditions and the general forecast.  You really don't have to regurgitate the same data points month after month, especially when your viewpoint of the topic is already well-documented and known.  As has been mentioned many times, this is a discussion forum, not a blog.  By turning it into a blog, your political undertones, as much as you might want to deny them, are not nearly as subtle as you think they are.

 

If you already know all this stuff and you know all the places I go. Why even visit this thread? You don't add much information for people to review? You make general comments, tell people they wear tinfoil hats and that you know their political opinions. And if you really want to have a political discussion start another thread and go for it. Plus, its apparent you would be surprised who I vote for.

 

If you find it useless just don't click on the button that sends you to this thread.

 

Apparently some people find this thread of some interest. It has almost 231,000 reads. Add in the original housing/recession thread that had about 250,000 view (if I remember correctly) and you have almost 500,000 reads.

 

And the overwhelming majority of those views probably came from people who were looking for the substantive discussion that is interjected between your bolded and underlined doom and gloom projections.  This is actually the first time I think I realized you started this thread.  At least I have some idea as to where you get your sense of entitlement towards its contents. 

 

I think we about beat this to death. Why don't we just move on.

Bing: 400-500 layoffs are expected in the next 90-days

"The number of city employees is now below 10-thousand, with another 400 to 500 hundred layoffs coming in the next couple of months, police and fire could be impacted, but they're trying not to take any officers off the streets."

http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/20290518/bing-400-500-layoffs-are-expected

 

 

Allonhill to lay off 140

"Denver-based Allonhill LLC is laying off 140 workers, most of them in Denver, who were focused on its transactional mortgage business, company chairman Sue Allon told the Denver Business Journal Thursday."

http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2012/12/06/allonhill-to-lay-off-140.html

 

 

 

Cross-posted this chart here - http://www.urbanohio.com/forum2/index.php/topic,28021.new.html#new.  Again, this goes to the point that whatever our economic problems are, they are the result of long-term trends which we must first find a way to reverse if there is any hope or possibility of returning to the type of growth people seem to think just occurs naturally through the free market....

 

 

What's the source for that graphic?

Serious question now because I have read a bit about the fears of smaller banks and arguments in favor of exempting them from the Act all together.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but the overwhelming majority of regulations attached to Dodd-Frank do not apply to institutions with less than $50 billion in assetts.  Is it that the Act limits some of the profits smaller banks made from things such as debit card transactions?  What specifically are their concerns when they come to you?

 

Sorry, I just saw this.

 

The cutoff is $10B in asset size, but most of the movement is by banks with under $1B in assets. I'm not an expert, and to be clear, I'm not involved in reviewing these banks, I'm just hearing from management about what's going on.

 

That said, my understanding is there's a few things happening. First, you're correct that Dodd Frank isn't the only reason this consolidation is happening. A lot of smaller banks' balance sheets are still in disrepair from the recession, as a lot of them made their bread and butter on commercial real estate loans. Many of these loans are under water, and the banks are facing increasing pressure from regulators to either improve their capital position, or sell.

 

Specifically as it relates to Dodd Frank, you're also correct that a portion of the issue is the loss of revenue on the consumer side. Larger banks can offset the loss of fees with, well, other fees. But a smaller bank doesn't have the same diversity of product lines, plus customers at smaller banks tend to be more fee sensitive, so it's harder to make up the difference. Also, the rules relating swaps effects many of these banks as well. A common practice on the commercial side is to fix a commercial loan's rate via an interest rate swap (a fairly vanilla product, not to be confused with the much more complicated swaps entered into by the TBTF banks). Smaller banks participate in this market as well (ususally by partnering with a third party provider), and it can be a lucrative source of fee income, as well as an effective way to hedge against interest rate risk. Dodd Frank's rules regarding swaps, however, include these products. Those regulations were implemented in October of this year, and they have increased the threshold regarding what customers qualify for swaps. So there is another hit to income.

 

Lastly, while many of Dodd-Frank's other requirements regarding capital levels, etc. may not be directly applied to smaller banks, the expectation is that the Basel III international requirements are going to be universally applied to all banks (with regard to how relationships are risk rated, and certain leverage capital frameworks).

 

All of that is creating a large amount of uncertainty with smaller banks. Combine that with a market that is seeing spreads tighten up, and many bank boards are moving toward getting out.

Japan revised GDP signals economy in recession

"Analysts expect another quarter of contraction in the final three months of this year due to sluggish exports to China, keeping the Bank of Japan under pressure to loosen monetary policy as early as this month."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/10/us-japan-economy-idUSBRE8B900W20121210?feedType=RSS&virtualBrandChannel=11563

 

 

China’s Trade Surplus Drops To $19.6 Billion In November: Official Data

"According to the data released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the country’s trade surplus shrank to $19.6 billion in November, against $32 billion in October and below analysts’ expectation of $25.7 billion. China’s exports rose 2.9 percent in November down from 11.6 percent increase in October and below the analysts’ expectation of 9 percent increase."

http://www.ibtimes.com/chinas-trade-surplus-drops-196-billion-november-official-data-930840

 

 

Market Savior? Stocks Might Be 50% Lower Without Fed

"Theoretically, the S&P 500 would be more than 50 percent lower—at the 600 level—if the bullish price action preceding Fed announcements was excluded, the study showed.

Posted on the New York Fed’s web site Wednesday, the study sought out to explain why equities receive such a high premium over less risky assets such as bonds."

"The chart shows the effect to be significantly pronounced in the aftermath of the tech bubble when Greenspan re-inflated stock and housing prices by slashing rates. It widens even further in the period since the financial crisis of 2008 as the market became beholden to the Fed’s use of its balance sheet to add liquidity to the market."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48165921/Market_Savior_Stocks_Might_Be_50_Lower_Without_Fed

Those shelves are getting pretty heavy in the warehouses.

 

U.S. wholesale inventories climb 0.6% in October

"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. wholesale inventories rose 0.6% in October, while wholesale sales fell 1.2%, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. At October's sales pace, the inventory-to-sales ratio increased to 1.22 from 1.19 in the prior month. Inventories of durable goods increased 1.0% in October."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-wholesale-inventories-climb-06-in-october-2012-12-11?dist=lcountdown

 

 

December Report: Small-Business Owner Confidence Plunges More than Five Points

One of the lowest optimism readings in survey history

“Something bad happened in November—and based on the NFIB survey data, it wasn’t merely Hurricane Sandy. The storm had a significant impact on the economy, no doubt, but it is very clear that a stunning number of owners who expect worse business conditions in six months had far more to do with the decline in small-business confidence."

http://www.nfib.com/research-foundation/surveys/small-business-economic-trends

 

 

October US Exports Plunge By Most Since January 2009 As Trade Deficit With China Hits Record

"The boost to GDP from the declining US trade deficit is over. While the September trade deficit number was revised further lower, to $40.3 billion from $41.5 previously, October saw a pick up to $42.2 billion, slightly less than the expected $42.7 billion, but a headwind to Q4 GDP already. As a result, expect a modest boost to Q3 GDP in its final revision, even as Q4 GDP continues to contract below its consensus of sub stall-speed ~1%. The reason for the decline: a 3.6% decline in exports of goods and services."

http://ewallstreeter.com/october-us-exports-plunge-by-most-since-january-as-trade-deficit-with-china-hits-record-8061/#

 

 

Here is some tinfoil hat crap. Is it still tinfoil hat if they admit it and are fined for it? Standard Chartered, HSBC, Barclays and Libor has just begun. Drug barons, Iran, manipulation of Libor and money laudering. I smell another hollywood movie in the works. Looks like about $3.3 billion in fines so far. Libor will end up making these fines look like childs play. Greed has no bounds.

 

HSBC to pay £1.2bn over Mexico scandal

"News of bank's agreement comes hours after Standard Chartered admitted settlement with US regulator over Iran"

"HSBC is expected to admit on Tuesday it has settled allegations of running money for Mexican drug barons for a larger than expected $1.9bn (£1.2bn), barely 24 hours after close rival Standard Chartered admitted paying $670m (£415m) in penalties to US regulators to settle allegations it broke sanctions on Iran."

"We have had Standard Chartered and now this and we still have more Libor cases to come." US authorities are investigating banks involved in the alleged manipulation of London's Libor, the key measure for setting loan rates around the world."

"Britain's banks are braced for fines following the £290m penalty slapped on Barclays – now vastly exceeded by the amounts levied by US regulators for breaching sanctions and laundering money."

"The fines on Standard Chartered follow accusations that lax systems left the US financial system vulnerable to "drug kingpins" and terrorists.

Standard Chartered is paying $327m to the US Federal Reserve, the US justice department and the New York district attorney, it was announced yesterday, following a settlement of $340m in August with the New York department of financial services."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/dec/10/standard-chartered-settle-iran-sanctions

 

 

Additional debt that is backed by the US Government (FEDs).

 

Fed Seen Pumping Up Assets to $4 Trillion in New Buying

"The Federal Reserve will amplify record accommodation tomorrow by announcing $45 billion in monthly Treasury buying that will push its balance sheet almost to $4 trillion, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-11/fed-seen-pumping-up-assets-to-4-trillion-in-new-buying.html

Libor news.

 

Three arrested in SFO Libor-rigging investigation

"Three men have been arrested at their homes by the City of London Police as part of a criminal investigation connected to the alleged manipulation of Libor."

"The unnamed men, all British nationals, aged 33, 41 and 47, were taken into police custody at addresses in Surrey and Essex as part of a Serious Fraud Office investigation into interest rate manipulation.

In a statement the SFO said: “Three men, aged 33, 41 and 47, have been arrested and taken to a London police station for interview in connection with the investigation into the manipulation of LIBOR. The men are all British nationals currently living in the United Kingdom.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/libor-scandal/9737068/Three-arrested-in-SFO-Libor-rigging-investigation.html

 

 

Can anyone explain in greater detail where Cincinnati would pick up 29% growth in the natural resources and mining sector?  Could that really be right and what kind of jobs are considered here?  Are these jobs from the fracking on the eastern side of the state?

 

USAToday interactive

http://www.usatoday.com/interactives/money/where-the-jobs-are/

^Well any little bump can jump  it dramatically since only 717 jobs are in mining in the metro.

^

Yeah, important to balance percentages with actual numbers. 

 

@@@

 

Meanwhile The Atlantic has an article about a lot of what we've discussed re the economy in general

 

The End of Middle Class Growth: What It Means for the Future of Work, Family, and the Economy

 

A bit of Paul Krugman, Robert Riech AND Charles Murray in this article. But for history-minded folks like myself, this article takes the trends back in time to WWII, looking at the postwar era....

 

...The economy no longer reliably and consistently transmits productivity gains to workers. The result is that many millions of Americans, in particular less-skilled men, are leaving the workforce, a phenomenon the country has never seen before on the present scale....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here is a quick look at the Baltic Dry Index. The cost/demand for shipping continues to fall.

 

"The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a number issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange. Not restricted to Baltic Sea countries, the index provides "an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Dry_Index

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-12/baltic-dry-plunges-over-8-overnight-most-2008

 

 

Global Shipbuilding Outlook – 45% of Shipyards Have No Orders Post 2012

"The downturn has been felt more in the commercial shipbuilding industry where demand tends to be driven by fixed asset investments and growth in global trade. Global commercial ship orders were down 48% YoY in the first nine months of 2012 and order backlog fell to half of the level in first half of 2008."

http://gcaptain.com/global-shipbuilding-outlook-global/

In other words the economy stinks and the FEDs must increase their efforts to keep it afloat. I guess a trillion here and there doesn't get you what it use too.

 

Fed boosts QE and ties rates to unemployment level

"The central bank replaced a more modest stimulus program due to expire at year-end with a fresh round of Treasury purchases that will increase its balance sheet. It committed to monthly purchases of $45bn in Treasuries on top of the $40bn per month in mortgage-backed bonds it started buying in September.

In a surprise move, the Fed also adopted numerical thresholds for policy, a step that had not been expected until early next year. In particular, the Fed said it will likely keep official rates near zero for as long as unemployment remains above 6.5pc, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than 2.5pc, and long-term inflation expectations remain contained."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9740740/Fed-boosts-QE-and-ties-rates-to-unemployment-level.html

Wow, somebody from a MSM outlet finally wrote an article about this. That tinfoil hat is getting smaller.

 

Too big to fail means too big for jail

"There’s a reason top executives haven’t gone to jail for engineering the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Some bankers are just too big to convict.

The latest example came Tuesday with British global banking giant HSBC’s agreement to pay a record $1.9 billion – about six weeks’ worth of the bank’s profits - to settle money-laundering charges with U.S. prosecutors. The deal ends a three-year probe into accusations of a widespread, multi-year string of illegal transactions violating sanctions against Iran and Latin American drug lords.

Five years after a wave of risky mortgage bets cratered the banking system and sent the global economy into recession, the banks behind the mess have paid or agreed to pay billions of dollars fines and restitution. But not a single senior executive from the biggest banks has gone to jail."

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/too-big-fail-means-too-big-jail-1C7555748#/business/too-big-fail-means-too-big-jail-1C7555748

U.S. retail sales rebound in November

Demand strong for autos, broad range of consumer goods

"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — American consumers didn’t go shopping much in October, but they made up for it in November.

Retail sales rose 0.3% last month after declining 0.3% in October, the Commerce Department said Thursday. And sales were stronger if a big decline in spending at gas stations is factored out.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast retail sales to rise by 0.4%."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-retail-sales-rebound-in-november-2012-12-13

 

 

Jobless claims drop below pre-Sandy levels

"Claims decline 29,000 to 343,000 and sit near a four-year low

Initial jobless claims declined by 29,000 to a seasonally adjusted 343,000 in the week ended Dec. 8, the Labor Department said Thursday.

Claims from two weeks ago were revised upward to 372,000 from an initial reading of 370,000."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-drop-below-pre-sandy-levels-2012-12-13

 

 

Debt Crisis: Greece secures €49.1bn bail out cash: live

"The Eurogroup of 17 eurozone finance ministers has approved of Greece receiving its next tranche of bail out cash of €49.1bn, despite the country's bond buyback programme missing debt reduction targets."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9740842/Debt-Crisis-Greece-secures-49.1bn-bail-out-cash-live.html

 

 

And a quick look at some job cut annoucements this week.

 

WebMD to cut 14 percent of workforce to reduce expenses

"(Reuters) - Health information website WebMD Health Corp said it will cut around 250 jobs, or 14 percent of its workforce, to reduce costs."

http://wtaq.com/news/articles/2012/dec/11/webmd-to-cut-250-jobs-to-reduce-expenses/

 

 

Samson laying off 100 workers, 70 in Tulsa

Read more from this Tulsa World article at http://www.tulsaworld.com/business/article.aspx?subjectid=49&articleid=20121211_49_0_Smoeor392522

 

 

Barclays may cut up to 2,000 investment banking jobs: WSJ

Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2012/12/13/barclays-may-cut-up-to-2000-investment-banking-jobs-wsj/#ixzz2EwjjZ1C7

 

 

California prison health care receiver issues lay off notices

"California Correctional Health Care Services has issued lay off warnings to 2,200 of its employees with a goal of axing 829 positions early next year."

Read more here: http://blogs.sacbee.com/the_state_worker/2012/12/california-prison-health-care-receiver-issues-lay-off-notices.html#storylink=cpy

I have been selling my equities positions, but now I don't want to.

 

The Fed Finally Does Something About Unemployment. And It’s Big.

 

...The Fed announced that it intends to keep its key interest rate at zero until unemployment drops to 6.5%, the first time it’s ever set a target for employment. It also signaled that it will tolerate inflation as high as 2.5%, above its stated goal of 2%. And it extended its “QE3” bond-buying program to hold down long-term interest rates. What it means is that Bernanke and his fellow inflation doves have won their argument with the hawks, and the Fed is stepping on the accelerator instead of riding the brakes. After three years of doing a wonderful job of maintaining stable prices while doing a terrible job of maximizing employment, the Fed finally seems determined to take its dual mandate seriously.

...snip...

In an ideal world, Congress would try to do something about it with fiscal policy. But after Republicans reclaimed the House in November 2010, the Capitol Hill conversation turned to austerity. President Obama refused to accept GOP austerity demands, so the U.S. hasn’t followed Great Britain back into recession. But Republicans have refused to accept Obama’s push for more fiscal stimulus, and the recovery has remained weak. The so-called fiscal cliff, with over $500 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts due to kick in January 1, could impose even more pain if Congress cannot work out a deal to avoid it; Obama has proposed some additional short-term fiscal stimulus, like extending unemployment benefits and payroll tax cuts, but Republicans have been allergic to stimulus since he took office.

...more...:

Read more: http://swampland.time.com/2012/12/12/the-fed-finally-does-something-about-unemployment-and-its-big

Those low interest rates are sure to kick in any time now...

.....here come the jobs!  Oh..wait...

 

Low Wage Sectors Drive Employment Growth

 

Leisure and hospitality, health care and social assistance, retail and temporary jobs — all low wage sectors — have been responsible for over half (51%) of the private sector job growth the last year.

 

 

 

 

 

Is the Economy Creating a Lost Generation...and its effect on birth rates

 

The most startling evidence of the broken escalator is the collapse in marriages and births. Marriage has been declining for years. Now, in a new study, the Pew Research Center finds that in 2011 the U.S. birth rate (births per 1,000 women between the ages of 15 and 44) fell to its lowest level since at least 1920, the earliest year of reliable statistics. From 2007 to 2011, the U.S. birth rate dropped almost 9 percent. The total fertility rate — the estimated number of children born to adult women in their lifetime — has fallen four straight years to 1.9 (the replacement rate is 2.1).

 

States with large economic setbacks suffered steeper birth rate drops...

 

This has happened in the past.

 

Anedote:  My granparents were married and lived during hard and uncertain times....the Great Depression and WWII (the German and American grandparents), and they had small families...my dad had one sister and my ma was an only child. 

 

 

 

 

Low-Wage Jobs Don’t Just Harm Workers — They Harm Their Children

 

...at the link there is detail for the following bullet points.

 

Low-wage work prevents parents from participating in their children’s development. 

 

Children of low-wage parents are often forced into the labor market early themselves.

 

Children of low-wage parents are more likely to face educational difficulties.

 

Children of low-wage parents are more at risk for health problems. 

 

>cue forlorn pix of ragged kids<

 

 

If you don't need food or energy you are good to go.

 

Consumer Prices in U.S. Decline More Than Forecast

"The cost of living fell more than forecast in November as energy prices dropped, a sign U.S. inflation remains in check.

The 0.3 percent decrease in the consumer-price index was the first drop since May and followed a 0.1 percent gain the prior month, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The median estimate of 80 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 0.2 percent drop. The core index, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, climbed less than projected."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-14/consumer-prices-in-u-s-decline-more-than-forecast-in-november.html

 

 

Britain bucks trend as EU car sales continue to fall

"Britain was the only major EU market to report a rise in new car registrations in November, as sales in southern Europe continued to plummet and even powerhouse Germany stalled."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/9744481/Britain-bucks-trend-as-EU-car-sales-continue-to-fall.html

 

 

Spanish house prices suffer severe fall

By Miles Johnson in Madrid

"Spanish house prices tumbled in the third quarter as stagnant demand and an continuing shortage of mortgage credit accelerated the deflation of the country’s housing bubble."

High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email [email protected] to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a35c9bf0-45e5-11e2-b7ba-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz2F2u6VG8Q

 

From The Atlantic

 

"The middle class crisis -- and its resulting income inequality -- is the most important economic story of our time. There are a million ways to tell it, and here's another: an annotated slide show, culled from the amazing 2012 edition of the State of Working America from EPI...

 

 

An annoted chart-by-chart guide to the "Middle Class Crisis"

 

..sample:

 

That's an interesting chart.  And the most interesting thing about it to me is that the divergence begins around 1972 or 1973, not 1980 with the election of Reagan (which is the starting point many progressives like to push when discussing this statistic).  The real split seems to be right around the time of the Arab oil embargo and Nixon taking the country off the gold standard.

From The Atlantic

 

"The middle class crisis -- and its resulting income inequality -- is the most important economic story of our time. There are a million ways to tell it, and here's another: an annotated slide show, culled from the amazing 2012 edition of the State of Working America from EPI...

 

 

An annoted chart-by-chart guide to the "Middle Class Crisis"

 

..sample:

 

 

Thanks for the chart and all the links. Great information.

^^

Yep.  I was around in the 1970s and already then you could sense the good times (ie the postwar boom) was over.  The 1974 recession was the "firebell in the night" (to borrow a phrase), but the early 1970s inflation also signalled something was up but (this was pre-oil embargo). 

 

 

 

I'm no Reagan hater, but it appears to me that, after a slight dip in the early 70's, the real divergence began with the recession in the late Carter years and then there is a prolonged dip until Clinton's 2nd term.

Here's a question:

 

Does it really matter if we see this bifurcation in incomes and increase in structural "unemploymnet" (or fewer FT jobs), as long as productivity increases and economic growth continues?

 

 

NY Empire Manufacturing Index Plummets

"The Empire State index fell to negative 8.1, a drop from the negative 5.2 seen in November, indicating the downturn broadened to touch more firms in the New York Fed’s latest survey.

It marked the fifth month in a row that the index has been in negative territory. Readings below zero indicate activity is declining."

"The drop in the index came as a surprise. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected the headline index to rise to 5.2 as activity recovered in the aftermath of regional disruptions caused by Hurricane Sandy."

http://forexblog.oanda.com/20121217/ny-empire-manufacturing-index-plummets/

 

 

Debt Crisis - Draghi asserts ECB can ask "any question" of all eurozone banks -live

"Mr Draghi has asserted the European Central Bank's ultimate power over all 6,000 eurozone banks, despite it only having direct supervision over 150 lenders."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9749598/Debt-Crisis-Draghi-asserts-ECB-can-ask-any-question-of-all-eurozone-banks-live.html

Here's a question:

 

Does it really matter if we see this bifurcation in incomes and increase in structural "unemploymnet" (or fewer FT jobs), as long as productivity increases and economic growth continues?

 

Depends what you want from the economy. Do you want prosperity for all Americans or just American economic power on the global stage?

Here's a question:

 

Does it really matter if we see this bifurcation in incomes and increase in structural "unemploymnet" (or fewer FT jobs), as long as productivity increases and economic growth continues?

 

Not necessarily, but it depends on the form of the bifurcation.  Most people measure their material existence in two ways (and, of course, there are other measures of happiness than solely material ones, but there are few true ascetics out there; the material matters somewhat for most of us).  You measure yourself against yourself of last year or five years ago, and you measure yourself against others.  If your wealth and income are rising in real terms year over year but your neighbor's are rising even faster, then you've at least got one out of two.  But if your wealth and income are flatlining year over year (or decade over decade) *and* others' incomes are rising, then you've got neither.  That can affect social stability and the receptiveness of such people to radical and violent political messages, among other things.

 

The other parts of your question likewise don't necessarily matter as much in the abstract, but they might as currently practiced in the US.  For example, there's actually no hard law that working two part-time jobs has to be a worse deal than working one full-time one.  I know a couple of people working part-time that actually make decent money for the hours that they work; if they added another part-time gig of similar caliber, they'd be better off than many full-time workers.  As things stand in the country as of this date and time, part-time work is usually a worse deal than full-time work, largely because benefits tend to be lower and those benefits can amount to significant value.  That need not be a permanent, universal truth, though.

This chart seems to indicate the run-up in composition (ie wages) for the upper 1%  happened in the 1980s & 1990s then stagnated

 

 

 

That can affect social stability and the receptiveness of such people to radical and violent political messages

 

People say that but i don't believe it.  Perhaps the social stablity part, which has a cost in terms of law enforcment and insurance....but the discussion around this kind of fallout is more about criminality and morality vs economic consequences.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That can affect social stability and the receptiveness of such people to radical and violent political messages

 

People say that but i don't believe it.  Perhaps the social stablity part, which has a cost in terms of law enforcment and insurance....but the discussion around this kind of fallout is more about criminality and morality vs economic consequences.

 

I do believe it.  This is not to disagree with the notion that basic civic values also play a fundamental role, perhaps an even more important one ... but even if economic malaise were just the #2 factor, it would still be worth attention.  The #2 factor isn't *that* far back.

The December Inflation Yield Curve Looks Promising

 

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland reports that its latest estimate of 10-year expected inflation is 1.52 percent. In other words, the public currently expects the inflation rate to be less than 2 percent on average over the next decade.

 

The Cleveland Fed’s estimate of inflation expectations is based on a model that combines information from a number of sources to address the shortcomings of other, commonly used measures, such as the "break-even" rate derived from Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS) or survey-based estimates. The Cleveland Fed model can produce estimates for many time horizons, and it isolates not only inflation expectations, but several other interesting variables, such as the real interest rate and the inflation risk premium.

 

http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/data/inflation_expectations/

http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2012/12/17/inflation_expectations_yield_curve_looks_promising_for_december.html

Home builder confidence highest since 2006

"The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose two points to a seasonally adjusted level of 47 — matching estimates from analysts polled by MarketWatch — from a downwardly revised 45 in November. A prior estimate for November pegged the level at 46. See economic calendar.

Despite eight months of gains, the confidence gauge remains below the key reading of 50. Readings over 50 indicate that more builders see sales conditions as good than poor."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-builder-confidence-highest-since-2006-2012-12-18?dist=lcountdown

 

 

Who Needs Global Trade Anyway: FedEx Shipments Imply Subzero GDP

"Bloomberg: "The level of FedEx package shipments began to slump as early as the first quarter of 2012 and now appears to be signaling weaker economic conditions for 2013. In late March, FedEx made mention of cooling conditions, with CFO Alan Graf noting the economy was not as strong as  the company hoped it would be a year earlier. According to Fred Smith, FedEx CEO, “Fundamentally, what’s happening is that exports around the world have contracted and the policy choices in Europe and the United States and China are having an effect on global trade."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-18/who-needs-global-trade-anyway-fedex-shipments-imply-subzero-gdp

Nate Silvers book 'Signal to Noise" (or something lke that) has a chapter on economic forecasting. 

We will have to wait and see if the offical data will end up showing a recession next year, but the economic impacts that are now happening will make it feel like a recession for months to come. The official numbers are really going to hing on how much they can pump up home construction and sales over the next year. Because they will not be able to rely on inventory growth to continue to push GDP up much longer.

 

Why a recession may be coming no matter what fiscal-cliff deal is reached

"The recession signal is being sent from the latest U.S. current account deficit report released earlier Tuesday.

According to the data, imports are now down two months in a row having fallen 8.4% in the third quarter and 2% in the prior quarter.  This is a rare event and has definitely raises the recessionary “red flag,” according to Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics. When the economy weakens, imports weaken rather quickly, Brusca notes.

The last time imports declined for two quarters was in 2009, the end of a four-quarter slide in imports during the Great Recession.

Fewer imports is a sign that domestic demand is faltering. A recession is “a real risk,” Brusca said."

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2012/12/18/why-a-recession-may-be-coming-no-matter-what-fiscal-cliff-deal-is-reached/

 

Just as a token counter to the ragerunner doom-and-gloom marathon, I figured I'd offer this:

 

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748703496404578173783815926590.html

 

Despite fiscal-cliff fears, the U.S. stock market could rise 10% in 2013, say Wall Street's top strategists. Betting on a better economy, foreign sales, and technology and energy shares.

 

Wall Street's equity strategists know that predicting the market's performance involves both skill and luck. This month's knotty negotiations among lawmakers over the so-called fiscal cliff -- looming automatic spending cuts and tax hikes -- greatly complicate the job of forecasting next year's market returns. Yet if there is one thing that makes market seers -- and investors -- comfortable about 2013, it is stocks' big rally in 2012. Success breeds confidence, after all, and a year-to-date advance of 12% in the Standard & Poor's 500 surely qualifies as success.

 

The 10 strategists recently surveyed by Barron's see more gains ahead next year. Their mean S&P prediction for 2013 -- 1562 -- implies a 10% price gain from current levels.

 

If Republicans and Democrats don't reach a deal before year end on taxes and spending, news about the progress of their talks could ratchet up market volatility in coming months. But at this point, the Street's bulls are more bullish about the year ahead than they were a year ago, while the bears are relatively less bearish.

Its typical for home starts to drop this time of the year.

 

U.S. housing starts fall 3% in November

"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Construction on new U.S. homes fell 3% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 861,000, led by declines in the West and Northeast, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected housing starts to fall to a rate of 865,000. See economic calendar.

The U.S. starts rate for October was downwardly revised to 888,000 from a prior estimate of 894,000."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-housing-starts-fall-3-in-november-2012-12-19-81034710?dist=lcountdown

 

 

Bless their hearts, I'm sure the rigging, fraud and bribes were for a good cause. That tinfoil hat just keeps getting smaller. These things that are coming to light are not just little oops. We are talking drug cartels, manipulation of markets, fraud, bribes, and breaking of international sanctions. Should make one wonder what we don't know about. I think this brings the total in illegal fines, that have been announced in the last few weeks, to about $4 Billion.

 

UBS fined £940m for rigging Libor, fraud and bribes

"Swiss banking giant UBS has agreed to pay £940m to regulators in order to settle charges of manipulating Libor interest rates, fraud and paying bribes to brokers."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/libor-scandal/9754614/UBS-fined-940m-for-rigging-Libor-fraud-and-bribes.html

 

 

Medicis lays off 200 in Valley

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/2012/12/17/20121217medicis-lays-off-200-in-valley.html?nclick_check=1

 

 

Liberty Medical Supplies layoffs: 250 Port St. Lucie employees to lose their jobs

Read more: http://www.wptv.com/dpp/news/region_st_lucie_county/port_st_lucie/liberty-medical-supplies-layoffs-250-port-st-lucie-employees-to-lose-their-jobs#ixzz2FVyUxq1z

 

 

Pfizer to cut 600 jobs as Lipitor sales decline: report

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/19/us-pfizer-jobs-idUSBRE8BI04C20121219

I think its a good thing that people have decided to make family time more important than another flat screen tv.

 

Retailers may see disappointing holiday sales

ShopperTrak cites school shooting, Sandy and fiscal cliff as it cuts holiday forecast

"NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — A leading tracker of shopper traffic on Wednesday cut its seasonal sales forecast, saying the holiday selling period would have “a different tone” in the aftermath of the school shootings in Connecticut, superstorm Sandy and as talks drag on over avoiding the fiscal cliff.

“It’s a change in mind-set,” said Bill Martin, founder of ShopperTrak, which follows shopper traffic in malls. “Gifts may not be as important as spending time with family. This holiday season is just not going to be as robust.”

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/retailers-may-see-disappointing-holiday-sales-2012-12-19?dist=afterbell

 

That's like surmising people would stop buying guns due to Sandy, when in reality gun sales accelerated after Friday. Or that we'd come together as a country after 9/11, whereas after a brief period of unity we're divided on 1860s levels.

By the time this is over the fines will not even be close to covering the losses. The banks involved will come out on the positive end financial of this illegal activity.

 

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Libor Loss Tops $3 Billion in Audit

"Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may have lost more than $3 billion tied to the rigging of a key interest rate, according to internal memos by the auditor of the Federal Housing Finance Agency."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-19/fannie-mae-freddie-mac-libor-loss-tops-3-billion-auditor-says.html

Nate Silvers book 'Signal to Noise" (or something lke that) has a chapter on economic forecasting. 

The burb and his video summary on Amazon.com look good  http://www.amazon.com/dp/159420411X

Third-quarter U.S. growth revised higher

"3.1% growth rate fastest since fourth quarter of 2011

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. economy grew more quickly than previously stated in the July-to-September quarter due to stronger trade, faster health-care spending and increased local government construction, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/third-quarter-us-growth-revised-higher-2012-12-20?dist=lcountdown

 

 

Initial jobless claims climb 17,000

"Four-week average at lowest level in two months

The Labor Department said Thursday that first-time jobless claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 361,000 in the week ended Dec. 15, versus a slightly upwardly revised 344,000 in the prior week. That’s almost exactly in line with the MarketWatch-compiled economist consensus of 360,000."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/initial-jobless-claims-climb-17000-2012-12-20?dist=lcountdown

 

 

Leading economic index drops in November

"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. economy looks to be slowing, the Conference Board said Thursday as it reported its leading economic index dropped in November."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/leading-economic-index-drops-in-november-2012-12-20?dist=lcountdown

 

 

Fed’s $4 Trillion Rescue Helps Hedge Fund as Savers Hurt

"The near-zero interest rate the Federal Reserve charges financial firms, as well as securities purchases that will balloon the central bank’s balance sheet to almost $4 trillion next year, have made it easier for Narula’s $1.6 billion fund to thrive and more difficult for Sanchez, a former college library director, to enjoy retirement.

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s efforts to energize the U.S. economy since 2008 have been credited with rousing the housing market from a six-year funk, lowering the jobless rate and putting more money in the pockets of both mortgage lenders and borrowers. At the same time, Fed policy has been blamed for starving money-savers of income and boosting certain asset prices, widening the gap between the rich and the rest of the country, said Joseph E. Stiglitz, the Nobel Prize-winning Columbia University economist."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-20/fed-s-4-trillion-rescue-helps-hedge-fund-as-savers-hurt.html

 

Sob Story or Ground Truth:

 

After Recession, More Young Adults Are Living on Street

 

Dateline: Seattle

 

Across the country, tens of thousands of underemployed and jobless young people, many with college credits or work histories, are struggling to house themselves in the wake of the recession, which has left workers between the ages of 18 and 24 with the highest unemployment rate of all adults.

 

Those who can move back home with their parents — the so-called boomerang set — are the lucky ones.

 

 

....so it goes.

 

 

Durable-goods orders jump in November

"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Orders for long-lasting goods jumped in November, in data suggesting a surprisingly strong and broad increase in corporate spending, according to a report released Friday."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/durable-goods-orders-jump-in-november-2012-12-21

 

 

Consumer sentiment tumbles in December

"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — U.S. consumers’ sentiment tumbled in December, according to data released Friday, with concerns about the fiscal cliff more than offsetting lower gasoline prices and higher stocks."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-sentiment-tumbles-in-december-2012-12-21

 

 

With Farm Bill Stalled, Consumers May Face Soaring Milk Prices

"WASHINGTON — Forget the fiscal crisis and the automatic budget cuts. Come Jan. 1, there is a threat that milk prices could rise to $6 to $8 a gallon if Congress does not pass a new farm bill that amends farm policy dating back to the Truman presidency."

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/21/us/milk-prices-could-double-as-farm-bill-stalls.html?_r=0

The video is about 10 minutes. Worth the watch up to about minute 6, then it becomes less about data and more about politics. Of course Canada has its own massive housing bubble and debt load to deal with.

 

Love the doomer porn in this thread.

Love the doomer porn in this thread.

 

You mean doomer comments like this? :wink:

 

A few KJP Quotes:

"Like I said in the Cincinnati Streetcar thread, my sense of humor isn't what it used to be. I have come to expect the worst in people these days, and sadly my expectations are often met."

Read more: http://www.urbanohio.com/forum2/index.php/topic,16869.0.html#ixzz2GGt1wSUN

 

"My belief is that, since cheap and reliable energy is important to modern society, then we need to get off the oil standard as quickly as an affordable transition will allow. Oil WAS a cheap and reliable source of energy, but not anymore. It was a short-term high from substance abuse in the thousands-of-years history of mankind thus far. A sudden shift to other, longer-term, and renewable sources will be painful, but a shift must be made nonetheless. Hopefully this shift can be made on mankind's timetable, rather than on oil's."

Read more: http://www.urbanohio.com/forum2/index.php/topic,5087.1260.html#ixzz2GGuK9MGT

 

"Bigger loss for United Continental as fuel cost jumps"

April 21, 2011

Read more: http://www.urbanohio.com/forum2/index.php/topic,15826.245.html#ixzz2GGx9wysZ

 

^Looks like a headline that was missed for this thread? :wink:

 

Not sure this thread's comments are much different. Just replace cheap oil with the word QE/money press/unsustainable debt addiction. Our dependency on this 'cheap oil and cheap money' has clearly added to our unsustainable economic development patterns that are affecting the economy's ability to move forward in a meaningful way. So what does the FED do about it, they pump billions/trillion+ into trying to re-inflate the suburban home buying market at price points that are still not in balance with income levels.

The 'machine' is making a full court press. So what the chances the 'across-the-board sequestration' actually takes place and remains in place? Any guesses?

 

Defense Industry Seeks Relief as Fiscal Cliff Draws Near

"The defense industry is urging Congress to delay the fight over taxes and focus on avoiding the automatic budget cuts that begin in six days.

The Aerospace Industries Association, which represents more than 300 aerospace and defense companies and their suppliers, said policy makers must find a way to avoid the across-the-board cuts known as sequestration even if they can’t resolve broader conflicts over tax rates and entitlement programs such as Medicare.

“Risking American lives and livelihoods for political leverage is wrong,” said Marion Blakey, the group’s president and chief executive officer, in a statement."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-27/defense-industry-seeks-relief-as-fiscal-cliff-draws-near.html

2 of the indexes went up, new orders and inventory. The other 5 indexes fell including employment to a 3 year low. The new order one is good news but the inventory one continues to show some real issues.

 

Chicago PMI climbs to 51.6% in December

"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Chicago purchasing managers index rose to 51.6% in December from 50.4% in November to mark the best performance in four months."

"The latest report suggests some businesses took advantage of expiring investment credits, but they also pulled back on hiring because of worries about the fiscal cliff."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chicago-pmi-climbs-to-516-in-december-2012-12-28

 

 

Pending Sales of Existing U.S. Homes Climb for Third Month

"The index of pending home sales climbed 1.7 percent to 106.4, the highest reading since April 2010, after a revised 5 percent gain in October, the National Association of Realtors reported today in Washington."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-28/pending-sales-of-existing-u-s-homes-climb-for-third-month-1-.html