Interest in mass transit, carpools, scooters jumps

By Larry Copeland and Oren Dorell, USA TODAY

 

Michael Rhoads, an engineer who lives near Albuquerque, saves $160 a month taking a commuter train. Mike Elder, a motorcycle salesman in California, cut his daily gas expense from $30 to $10 by switching from a pickup to a motorcycle. Jeff McCutchan, a quality assurance engineer in Snoqualmie, Wash., saves $14.25 a day through the vanpool he formed two weeks ago.

 

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2008-05-09-alternativetransport_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip

I've noticed a HUGE increase in food prices today when I went shopping. Seriously, like everything I usually buy was roughly 20% more. My digiorno pizzas were over 6 bucks!  :x

A skeptical view......

___________________

 

http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/story.html?id=30ae8843-b80d-4770-a572-efe075abf257&p=2

 

Don't let rising gas prices push you into panic selling

Logically, the high cost of fuel doesn't justify drastic lifestyle changes, says Randall Denley, so don't be too quick to dump your SUV or your suburban home

Randall Denley, The Ottawa Citizen

Published: Sunday, May 11, 2008

 

So if higher gasoline prices don't justify buying a different car, or a different house, how could they possibly justify spending $4 billion on public transit? We're told that hordes of Ottawans are about to give up their cars and flock to transit because gas prices keep going up. Let's hope not, because even after the mega-expansion of transit, it will only be able to handle about 30 per cent of the daily commuting volume. More capacity is possible with rail, but at a higher cost.

 

 

Only four more cents to go to the four-point-oh-oh ....

 

The gas station in front of my office building just put up their new price for regular: $3.959

 

It may hit $4 by the end of the week. RBOB futures just went past $3.21 (add 70+ cents to that for distribution, marketing, profit margin etc) and are still edging upward. Bring it on. My low-mileage lifestyle can take it.

It's $3.95/gallon down here in Cincy too.  My parents (Green Twp), who voted against the light-rail ballot measure a couple years ago (much against my advice), are now regretting their decision and wish that Cincinnati had the alternative transportation options that many other cities have.

 

My mother actually heard a local news report about how many cities are now having their rail lines nearing completion due to their approval years ago (same situation that Cincy was in)...and how many people in those cities are happy with not only the amount of money they're saving, but also the amount of time.

Terrific video too! ..... http://money.cnn.com/video/#/video/news/2008/05/13/chernoff.commuters.gas.cnnmoney

 

http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/12/news/economy/dumping_the_gas_pump_chernoff/index.htm

 

Ditch that car, hop a train

As the price of gas soars, more and more commuters are leaving their cars in the garage and boarding the train.

   

By Allan Chernoff, CNN senior correspondent

Last Updated: May 13, 2008: 11:32 AM EDT

 

NEW YORK (CNN) -- The soaring price of gas has convinced New Jersey resident Eric Scott to trade the comfort of his car for a seat on the train every morning after 17 years of driving to the office.

 

"It's a huge savings," said Scott., "In today's economy, you know, every penny counts so I'm just glad I made that switch."

 

Scott, a Senior Trust Administrator with Merrill Lynch in Hopewell, NJ, is saving more than $300-a-month by taking the train instead of driving the 72-mile roundtrip from his home in Willingboro, NJ. His monthly New Jersey Transit train pass costs $77, less than 1/4 of the $400 he had been spending on gas each month.

 

......

A co-worker spotted $4.00 per gallon at a BP station near downtown Columbus this afternoon.

Suspicion rises over higher food costs

 

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Forced to pay for once-free sandwich toppings and twice as much for some steak cuts, shoppers are wondering whether higher grocery bills and restaurant tabs truly reflect the trickle down of a global rise in food prices.

 

 

http://www.cnn.com/2008/LIVING/personal/05/13/food.prices.ap/index.html

So I was in NJ/NY all week. In Palisades Park, NJ on Wednesday, we had two options to go to NY: drive in or take transit.

 

Option 1: Drive our SUV. The 17 mile route would have taken us along US 46 to the NJ Turnpike to Interstate 78 to the Lincoln Tunnel to Battery Park. The cost would have been $8 for toll at the tunnel, and anywhere from $15 to $40 per day for parking. We would have had to purchase gasoline as it takes around two gallons just to drive around due to the congestion. It would have taken around 1.5 hours in the rush to drive or 1 hour in normal traffic.

 

Option 2: Take the bus. We hop on NJ Transit's 166X (Express) route, which wanders through Palisade Park's main street (Broad Avenue), from a stop that was five blocks from where we were staying at. The bus hops on the Turnpike and bypasses the tolls, and the only holdup was in the middle of Lincoln Tunnel, where we sat for five minutes before arriving at the awesome PATH terminal at 42nd and 8th. The bus was lavishly cushioned, had personal reading lights, and was smooth. The bus driver was courteous and fun to listen to as he ranted about drivers while he tooted the horn. Cost of the 30 minute bus ride was only $3.40 per person.

 

We then took the #3 subway (I think that's it) from the PATH terminal to South Station at Battery Park, and later hopped on the W line to 5th and 59th Street (Central Park). $2 per person x 2 separate trips = $4 per person.

 

We walked from Central Park along 5th then along 49th Street to PATH and took the return bus... this time 166 local to Palisades Park. Although we made numerous stops, it only took us 50 minutes and came with some spectacular views of the NYC skyline.

To travel or not to travel?

Fuel costs giving us 2nd thoughts about vacation

BY ALEXANDER COOLIDGE | [email protected]

 

The rising cost of travel is reining in summer vacation plans for many area residents.

 

As gasoline prices keep hitting record highs, the cost of airfares, hotels and car rentals also is climbing. Travel promotion groups - including some locally - are offering discounts to encourage out-of-staters to not just pass through - but stay and spend money.

 

The travel season starts a week from now with the Memorial Day weekend, which will be the first in a decade when the number of travelers will drop, according to travel group AAA forecast. Officials say the holiday outlook bodes poorly for the summer ahead.

 

More at:

 

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080517/BIZ01/805170334&template=printpicart

I've had to down size my form of transportation.

 

LOL

 

50cc is really all you need but where are you gonna put your groceries?!

Wave of the future?? This woman can afford a car but not a home? So she lives in her car....

 

http://money.cnn.com/video/#/video/news/2008/05/15/news.gutierrez.parking.cnnmoney

This past Thursday I was stuck in traffic on I-480 on my way to the airport. I went less than 2 miles in 45 minutes then finally decided to cross the median and go to the Turnpike.

 

I arrived at the car rental facility 45 minutes before the flight and I didn't have time to fill the gas tank. I nearly had a coronary when I was told I had to pay $7.49 per gallon for just about a full tank of gas! :-o

^Save your receipt. In a couple of years it'll be a memento of the good old days of cheap gas.

 

^^I predict a revival of the microbus. If anybody's interested, my mechanic has a couple for sale.

 

There is a show on CNN that starts at 8pm. Called we have been warned: Out of gas.  I saw it last night and they have some dooms day scenario's.

Who's to blame for $4 gas

Prices have surged over the past four years - and there's a bunch of reasons why.

By Steve Hargreaves, CNNMoney.com staff writer

May 20, 2008: 4:07 AM EDT

 

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- It's hard to imagine now, but in 1999 gasoline sold for 90 cents a gallon. How'd we get from there to $4 a gallon?

 

There is no short answer - many things happened, and together they formed a chain of events from cheap gas to $100 tankfuls.

 

2004: Demand pressure

One of the most common reasons cited for the price jump is supply and demand - we are using more oil, which accounts for 70% of the price of gas, and finding less of it. 

Find this article at:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/20/news/economy/gas_price_history/index.htm 

 

Um.....like what do you expect an industry spokesperson to say?

 

 

Oil companies not to blame for price at pump, industry economist says

Wednesday,  May 21, 2008 2:49 PM

By Mike Pramik

 

THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH

 

Don’t blame oil companies for the prices you pay at the gas pump.

 

So says John Felmy, chief economist for the American Petroleum Institute, who says that what he called thin profit margins and decreasing U.S. demand for gasoline have left some companies in the energy supply chain with less opportunity to make money.

 

“What you have is a situation where 90 percent of the retail price (of gasoline) is in crude costs and taxes,” Flemy said. “So along the supply chain you have refiners who are aren’t making any money. In fact, a couple lost money in the first quarter.”

 

More:

 

http://www.dispatch.com/live/content/business/stories/2008/05/21/petroleum.html?sid=101

As oil tops $133, execs again blame supply and demand 

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) — As crude oil prices topped $133 a barrel and gasoline headed toward $4 a gallon, executives from five big oil companies Wednesday gave a wide range of estimates when lawmakers asked them how high oil prices should be.

 

For the second time this year, executives from ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX) and three other big energy companies were called to testify before Congress about oil prices.

 

 

Find this article at:

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2008-05-21-senate-oil_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip 

 

I wonder if we aren't starting to see a little froth in the market.  Even as a "peak oil believer" I find it hard to believe that prices should be running up this quick.

There is clearly a lot of emotion in this market, with everyone blaming everyone else. And yes, emotion is driving oil prices higher. But oil companies aren't driving oil prices higher in the way people think -- only 20-25 cents of each gallon of gas you buy is for oil company profit. That's half of the tax (federal/state) component of gas prices. People just don't understand how big these oil companies are. ExxonMobil, for example, generates more than $400 BILLION in revenues per year, but incurs more than $350 BILLION in costs. That's not obscene rate of return. In fact it's pretty average.

 

Why SHOULD we hate the oil companies? Because they know the sh!t is about to hit the fan and they're not telling us so we can make preparations. How do we know they know about peak oil? Because of their actions.

 

Look at their exploration budgets. They're way up.

 

Look at their profits from exploration. Way down.

 

How many refineries have been built? Only one in the U.S. since 1976, which sits idle in Arizona awaiting oil from Mexico that may never come because production from their huge Cantarell field is collapsing.

 

Meanwhile the oil industry isn't hiring enough new employees to compensate for retiring workers. In fact, much of their new labor additions has been by outsourcing so they're not committed long term. And look at the average age of the industry's offshore oil platforms. You'd think they'd be getting younger on average -- instead the opposite is true.

 

That's why you should be mad at the oil companies. At least they won't get bounced out of elected office for telling the public the truth. We can't expect honesty from our government -- not on this issue!

 

As for the froth in the market. Panic is driving prices higher. But there are fundamentals behind it. Everyone likes to blame speculators, but usually its people who don't understand what's driving speculators or even the global oil marketplace.

 

When a peak oil-aware investor buys an oil future, we invariably take a long position. That is, we go to a mercantile exchange (in London, New York, Dubai) buy a certificate which entitles us to take delivery of X barrels of oil at a given per-barrel price -- but that delivery date is a long time from now. Eight years is the maximum long position an investor can take. Those of us who believe in peak oil are buying those long positions because we think the supply-demand equation favors the price going higher in the future. The farther into the future, we assume the higher the price will be.

 

But here's why buying long positions on oil futures doesn't drive up gasoline prices at the pump.... Because speculators don't take delivery of oil when the contract expires. Instead, we sell it before that happens because we don't want an oil tanker truck pulling up in front of our home or office. So when the speculator sells the futures contract, he/she is joined by lots of other speculators selling their contracts.

 

If there are fewer buyers than sellers of those futures contracts and who wish to take delivery of oil, then the spot price (for the next month's contract) per barrel goes down.

 

If there more buyers than sellers of those contracts who wish to take delivery of oil, then the spot price goes up. When you hear on the news that the price of oil went up to $X, that's the spot price.

 

And if there's more buyers than sellers, then shortages are occurring somewhere. And there ARE SHORTAGES HAPPENING, primarily in Third Countries which cannot afford to buy as much oil at the spot price.

 

So, after I learned more about the oil market, I've become less emotional except in one area -- the anger at those who want to blame everyone but themselves for creating the demand that is eclipsing supply. There is nothing anyone can do about this except use less oil. And the only way that's happening is for oil prices to keep going up.

 

On that score, high oil prices aren't a bad thing at all. In fact, they're very helpful to do what no one else is able to do -- cause America to re-evaluate its transportation, metropolitan land use, agricultural and consumerist activities. Still, too many of us are in denial and may stay that way even after America's oil-soaked lifestyle collapses. Why not? When you're addicted to that easy-street lifestyle, blaming everything else is so much easier.

Westerville Speedway 5-21-08: $3.99.9

The other problem is that so much of the world's oil is held hostage by folks like Hugo Chavez, the chaos in Iraq, the mullahs in Iran, the neo-fascists in control of Russia, and the numerous weak gov'ts in the former Russians states of the Caspian region.

And what has this country really done to reduce consumption through either a coherent national energy or transportation policy? We can finger-point all we want, but we have ourselves to blame for electing the twits in the White House and Congress who have failed to achieve either type of policy, much less coordinate the two and really tell the Chavez's of the world to stick the oil pipe where the sun doesn't shine.

 

As Pogo would say: "We have seen the enemy, and it is us."

 

VOTE!

"We have seen the enemy, and it is us."

 

A great quote, and quite true. It takes a "tragedy" such as "high" gasoline prices to make Americans realize that yes, our greedy and wasteful lifestyle of driving hulking SUVs and living in far-flung exurbs really did contribute to the issues that plague us today. While many are feeling the pinch now, if this "problem" continues to grow to say... $6 or $7 per gallon by 2010, you will see some serious development pattern shifts.

The other problem is that so much of the world's oil is held hostage by folks like Hugo Chavez, the chaos in Iraq, the mullahs in Iran, the neo-fascists in control of Russia, and the numerous weak gov'ts in the former Russians states of the Caspian region.

 

If there was a glut of oil like the world had in the late 1980s and throughout the 1990s, none of the above would even matter. The glut is gone and the market is very tight. It's why oil exporters are keeping more oil for themselves and their nations' economic well-being. But critics like the dimwit Ed Wallace over at BusinessWeek or the morons in Congress who sued OPEC don't recogize the sovereignty of exporting nations. Nor do they understand that not all kinds of oil are created equal. 10 million barrels of light sweet crude aren't equal to 10 million barrels of heavy, sour crude. You can't refine the heavy, sour stuff in any ol' refinery. It takes specially equipped refineries (which are more scarce) to make the less desireable oil into a lighter, sweeter oil which is then sold on the global market. Since refineries that handle the heavy, sour oil are more scarce, it creates backlogs of supply and increases costs. So guys like Wallace question why oil prices are so high when there are high oil inventories. Too bad he doesn't bother to ask why.

IF oil prices doubled the past 12 months I don't see where demand has doubled the past 12 months.

You're forgetting the other half of the demand-supply equation -- and what the equation might look like in the future based on data and modeling.

 

EDIT:  This is econ 101, but price doesn't change in equal proportion to changes in supply/demand. Price is heavily influenced by the psychology of the prospective buyer and whether they perceive the product as a want or a need.

The other problem is that so much of the world's oil is held hostage by folks like Hugo Chavez, the chaos in Iraq, the mullahs in Iran, the neo-fascists in control of Russia, and the numerous weak gov'ts in the former Russians states of the Caspian region.

 

No one is holding oil hostage.  Chavez, Russia and Iran need money and they have plenty of customers clamoring for their oil.  All three are also at or past their natural, geological production peaks.  Iraq is probably the only current oil producing nation that actually does have output suppressed, yes because of the chaos, and unfortunately, we're ultimately responsible for that.

 

 

And what has this country really done to reduce consumption through either a coherent national energy or transportation policy? We can finger-point all we want, but we have ourselves to blame for electing the twits in the White House and Congress who have failed to achieve either type of policy, much less coordinate the two and really tell the Chavez's of the world to stick the oil pipe where the sun doesn't shine.

 

As Pogo would say: "We have seen the enemy, and it is us."

 

Amen.

 

VOTE!

 

None of the major party candidates get it.  The best we could do is vote against incumbents for Congress and for a third party for president, and we'd still end up with the same circus, different clowns. 

When a peak oil-aware investor buys an oil future, we invariably take a long position. That is, we go to a mercantile exchange (in London, New York, Dubai) buy a certificate which entitles us to take delivery of X barrels of oil at a given per-barrel price -- but that delivery date is a long time from now. Eight years is the maximum long position an investor can take. Those of us who believe in peak oil are buying those long positions because we think the supply-demand equation favors the price going higher in the future. The farther into the future, we assume the higher the price will be.

 

But here's why buying long positions on oil futures doesn't drive up gasoline prices at the pump.... Because speculators don't take delivery of oil when the contract expires. Instead, we sell it before that happens because we don't want an oil tanker truck pulling up in front of our home or office. So when the speculator sells the futures contract, he/she is joined by lots of other speculators selling their contracts.

 

If there are fewer buyers than sellers of those futures contracts and who wish to take delivery of oil, then the spot price (for the next month's contract) per barrel goes down.

 

If there more buyers than sellers of those contracts who wish to take delivery of oil, then the spot price goes up. When you hear on the news that the price of oil went up to $X, that's the spot price.

 

And if there's more buyers than sellers, then shortages are occurring somewhere. And there ARE SHORTAGES HAPPENING, primarily in Third Countries which cannot afford to buy as much oil at the spot price.

 

 

KJP, thanks for the insight. An interesting read.

 

I'm not in any position to invest in oil futures, but I keep reading Exxon Mobil would be a good investment.

I'm not in any position to invest in oil futures, but I keep reading Exxon Mobil would be a good investment.

 

I would change your reading material. No oil company is a sound investment, at least over the long term (2+ years).

 

And few people are in a position to buy oil futures. You can't just buy a barrel or two or 200. You have to buy them in large blocks -- I seem to recall 1,000 barrels is the minimum purchase (for futures and contract options).

 

I can't tell you where to invest. But I can say what I have bought and want to buy. First, I would buy land -- especially arable land and urban land near existing or potential urban farms. Second, I would buy metals, not in the commodities markets because they are subject to the same minimum-buy restrictions as oil futures/options. Instead, I would buy Krugerrands, old coins -- gold, silver, copper, nickel -- and jewelry.

 

Other investments I have or want include are commodities tracking funds (these are the poor man's answer to commodities futures), stocks in bicycle manufacturers, railroads, steamship/barge lines, solar panel and wind turbine manufacturers, and possibly even steel mills and other metals industries. Metals are good things to be in since they are tangible items which can be easily recycled. And I like big companies that kill two or more post-peak oil birds at the same time, companies like General Electric which makes renewable energy equipment AND locomotives including electric ones!

I've done great with steel mills and other heavy industries. I invested in AKS (AK Steel) and X (US Steel) when their prices were (IIRC) $57 and $100, and today, they are well over that (I think at last look it was $71 and $130). I'll amend this post when I check my sheets later.

 

Oil companies? I've tracked all of the major corps for months and it's either declining or staying stable. Not long term investments, that is for sure.

IF oil prices doubled the past 12 months I don't see where demand has doubled the past 12 months.

 

I just came across something from www.theoildrum.com that I thought I would share here....

 

Consider the 1973 oil embargo of the U.S. by OPEC and led by Saudi Arabia due to America's support of Israel in the Yom Kippur War. The embargo was partial and short-lived, and ultimately only knocked about 5 percent of oil off the world market (the U.S. was able to get supplies through other world sources).

 

Despite the decline in oil supplies of just 5 percent, oil prices shot up 400 percent.

 

Like I said in the edit of my earlier message, pricing is a psychological thing based on whether a buyer thinks a product is a need or a want. Consider that, in 1967 during the Six Day War, America also came to Israel's defense. Saudi Arabia led OPEC in an embargo of sending oil to America. It failed because America still had surplus capacity and could ramp up production to offset the lost oil. The embargo failed.

 

The 1973 embargo succeeded because America had passed its domestic peak oil of production in 1970 and could no longer ramp up production. Instead imported oil to the USA was quickly and increasingly having to make up the widening gap between domestic production and domestic demand.

 

Today, America produces only 1/3 of its oil from domestic sources, to which ANWR or off-shore drilling will have little if any effect in compensating for other aging, depleting fields. We can try tapping them now, but I'd rather hang on to these for when the shit really hits the fan.

Despite the decline in oil supplies of just 5 percent, oil prices shot up 400 percent.

 

It's like a room with 20 starving people and 19 sandwiches.

On Venezuela, Chavez's mismanagement has sharply reduced the capacity of his fields. They have heavy oil of which nearly all the worldwide refining capacity is in the US, since we used to get so much oil from them. He has lost nearly all of the special knowledge that it takes to get his oil out of the ground and made into something usable. Nigeria has had major supply interruptions with major violence in their oil fields.

 

We also have to acknowledge that demand is going up dramatically in India and China - both of whom lack appreciable domestic reserves.

 

Iran has had some of the same problems with a poorly managed oil industry that prevents them from fully getting their gold out of the ground.

 

The other thing to remember is that in nearly all of these oil producing nations, the countries buy social peace through artificially suppressed gas prices. They are all non-democratic and use cheap gas to keep social peace. Iran lacks refining capacity mostly because of the US embargos, so they have to import their own gasoline even though they sit on top of one of the world's largest reserves.

 

You have acknowledge that these various constrictions mean they aren't using the oil up as quickly as they could.

 

The big areas that seem to be pretty much empty are Mexico (though there is probably some mismanagement by PEMEX) and the North Sea (though they are trying some of the really deep sea stuff coming out of the Gulf of Mexico).

 

I'm not saying things are great, but there are lots of geopolitical rather than scientific explanations.

http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080522/NEWS17/347865868/-1/NEWS

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Article published May 22, 2008

 

High gas cost detours many holiday trips

Area motorists scale back weekend travel plans

 

By DAVID PATCH

BLADE STAFF WRITER

 

 

On a normal Wednesday before a Monday holiday, AAA Northwest Ohio's main office in Sylvania Township would be jammed at lunchtime with club members getting travel information for the upcoming long weekend.

 

But not so yesterday. Agents were waiting to help the few who arrived.

 

 

Despite the decline in oil supplies of just 5 percent, oil prices shot up 400 percent.

 

It's like a room with 20 starving people and 19 sandwiches.

 

 

Nice Analogy

why is it when we discuss oil producing nations, we always seem to forget Canada?

 

Maybe I'm missing something, but they have been our top importer for a while now: http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/company_level_imports/current/import.html

why is it when we discuss oil producing nations, we always seem to forget Canada?

 

You're not missing anything. We just like to take the Canadians for granted as if they were the 51st state....

On Venezuela, Chavez's mismanagement has sharply reduced the capacity of his fields. They have heavy oil of which nearly all the worldwide refining capacity is in the US, since we used to get so much oil from them. He has lost nearly all of the special knowledge that it takes to get his oil out of the ground and made into something usable. Nigeria has had major supply interruptions with major violence in their oil fields.

 

We still get plenty of oil from Chavez.  He hasn't cut back sales to us, yet.  He will when demand from other customers increases enough that he has other places to sell more of their oil.

 

Nothing you said about Venezuela changes the fact that they are past peak.  They are also getting plenty of help with their oil infrastructure from China now, if I recall correctly. 

 

I'm no fan of Chavez (just check out what humanrightswatch.org says about him), but geology is a bigger factor right now with Venezuela's oil than geopolitics.

 

Iran has had some of the same problems with a poorly managed oil industry that prevents them from fully getting their gold out of the ground.

 

Concerns about Iran's expertise and mismanagement of their oil reserves are overblown.  A couple of European energy companies as well as Sinopec of China have contracts with Iran to develop their other fields and build refineries.  That fact of the matter is that Iran is also past peak and they know it. It's the chief reason they want nuclear energy.

 

The other thing to remember is that in nearly all of these oil producing nations, the countries buy social peace through artificially suppressed gas prices. They are all non-democratic and use cheap gas to keep social peace. Iran lacks refining capacity mostly because of the US embargos, so they have to import their own gasoline even though they sit on top of one of the world's largest reserves.

 

This doesn't change geology.  Besides, it's their oil, not ours.  They can do what they want with it. This doesn't mean they are withholding oil from world markets.  Just like the US did when it was an oil power-- they meet domestic needs first, then export the surplus.  This is a major elephant in the closet, by the way.  Export capacity from oil producing nations is declining faster than the depletion rates in most declining fields. 

 

You have [to] acknowledge that these various constrictions mean they aren't using the oil up as quickly as they could.

 

It pales in comparison to the geologic problem. 

 

The big areas that seem to be pretty much empty are Mexico (though there is probably some mismanagement by PEMEX) and the North Sea (though they are trying some of the really deep sea stuff coming out of the Gulf of Mexico).

 

Not empty but in decline.  The list is long and includes US, Indonesia, China, Australia, Kuwait, the Philippines,  and many more.  The majority of oil producing nations in the world are in production decline. 

 

I'm not saying things are great, but there are lots of geopolitical rather than scientific explanations.

 

Again, it pales in comparison to geology which is the elephant in the room.  Geopolitical issues are just the fleas.

Every time I look at this thread I get depressed because I know it's just going to get worse before it gets better.

"I think it's going to get worse before it gets better."

 

You think it will get better?

Every time I look at this thread I get depressed because I know it's just going to get worse before it gets better.

 

What's going to get worse? The demise of suburbia? The end of our over-dependence on cars? A severe reduction in greenhouse gas emissions? The re-localization of economies? The reinvestment in traditional cities, walking, biking, transit, railroads??

 

I'm not seeing bad things there. Yes, I understand food is a huge concern, but there is no reason that Victory Gardens of WWII can't make a comeback and provide at least as much as 40 percent of the food that the Victory Gardens did. And I'm going to miss being able to afford flying, especially overseas.

 

But I see a lot more good coming out of all this than bad. It's the transition that is going be VERY rough, especially for those who will hold on to the suburban lifestyle until death do they part.

Obviously some of you guys don't think about the people who don't live in the cities or the suburbs. What about the people in the country? We are the ones who do most of the dirty work in the cities but we can't afford to live there. I'll use myself for an example. I work construction in Cincinnati but there is no way that on my pay I can afford to buy a place in the city. I would love to move to downtown Cincy but it just isn't feasible, at least not right now. I'm not trying to start a debate but for people in my situation (and yes there are quite a few of us) just switching from car to bike isn't going to happen. Where I live gas is already $4.19 and I'm only 45 minutes from Eastgate where it was $3.95 just this afternoon. That is a big difference for such a short distance. And it will take a lot of development to get Adams County to be able to employ most of it's own residents. Especially when the politicians seem to think progression is a sin.

It really depends on how long this stays this way. Straight line projections are ALWAYS wrong. To some degree, savings in some places will allow for spending in other places.

 

Examples: extensive rail investment takes place over the next 10 years ... perhaps even the reintroduction of interurban style transit, well that is potentially a lot of gas no longer used, so oil prices come down some. I'd imagine in some places we'll see the reinvigoration of smaller towns as people stop making the gas guzzling trips to the core and just buy near home (though Amazon.com and the internet more broadly could weaken that).

 

Honestly, we'll probably see the acceleration of the depopulation of the countryside (though obviously there is a limit since it is already quite far advanced).

Like I said, the transition is going to be the tough part. Some people aren't going to be able to live where they want anymore or do what they want. Many will lose their jobs. Many will starve. But living in the country will be a very good thing -- if you're a farmer or have a basic skill like carpentry, electrician, mechanic, etc.

 

I don't mean to pry, but... You work in construction and you can't afford to live in an Ohio city? How many miles do you drive each day to and from work? Is it 25 miles each way? Is it more? The AAA says we're paying 50 cents per mile to drive a car you own. For you, that's more than $1,000 worth of commuting per month! You can find decent places to rent in a major Ohio city for much less than that. Even if you count just the gasoline, you're paying nearly $170 per month. I don't know how much you pay to live where you are now, but consider the savings of moving closer to work and paying a bit more in rent. Maybe it will equal out? It might even save you more if you're not driving for everything -- groceries, post office, drug store, nights out on the town, etc.

 

I don't mean to make light of your situation. But we are all going to have to reevaluate what we're doing each day and how we we're doing it.

well that is potentially a lot of gas no longer used, so oil prices come down some.

 

And when prices go down, consumption goes up so prices also go back up.

 

Under peak oil, production doesn't return to "the good ol' days" no matter what. There will be blips and no bell-shaped curve of production is as smooth as silk, or follows a straight line as you point out. But the inexorable trend is for production and supplies to fall and for prices to climb. Nothing can stop that though some blips here and there will arise.

I know alot of people doing a lot of dirty work in the city and very few of them come from the country.  Not jabbing at country folk, but don't insult us either.  And I don't believe that you can't find an affordable place to live in any city in Ohio.  There are plenty of inexpensive housing options in the city, far more than in the country.  Especially when you take transportation costs into account like KJP demonstrated.

KJP,

 

You prove a valuable point and to answer your question. The drive is around 70 miles one way, give or take a few miles. Also, I'm actually kinda lucky in that I actually car pool with a guy who has a company vehicle and it only cost me $12 a week in gas expense. That is because the company takes a certain amount of money out of my crew leaders paycheck per week and the three of us that ride together just split the cost. But I'm just waiting for the day when they decide to tell us the we are going to have to leave the company vehicles at the shop and that we will have to drive in our own cars. I can't say that I would blame them, after all, they do have to make money too.

 

X,

 

I didn't mean to insult anybody and if I did then I apologize. Where I'm basing my point off of is the company I work for. It employs around 250 people if I'm not mistaken and nearly half of us are from Adams and Brown counties (the country). There is also another company that is our competitor that has nearly the exact same stats. I also know that most of Adams County residents are employed in or around the city, well at least the ones who aren't on welfare. Once again, I'm sorry if you were insulted by what I said but I'm just trying to state my opinion without starting a full fledged argument.

Many people in this nation are terrified about living in a city where they are close to people of varying income levels and racial backgrounds.

 

No, people in this county are terrified about living next to people who are criminals.  Nobody really cares how much you make or what you do, so long as it doesn't involve being a criminal or infringing on their own lifestyle.

 

Anyway, things like this don't change until they have to, which is why society will remain as you see it today until something (and sorry, but $4/gallon isn't enough to do it) forces it to change.