3 minutes ago, mas1092 said:

There was an article in the WSJ a few weeks back with some data on movement between cities during Covid, and the data was not favorable for Cleveland. For every person moving out of the Cleveland metropolitan area during April 2020 through October 2020, only 0.9 persons were moving in. They sourced the data from LinkedIn.

 

The data was for the metropolitan areas and not city populations, but it does seem to contradict some of the anecdotal evidence posted here -- that Cleveland is gaining population and that a majority of the growth is people moving in from out of state. 

 

Covid-19, Remote Work Make Austin a Magnet for New Jobs

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-remote-work-make-austin-a-magnet-for-new-jobs-11607423401

Meh. So think about how many kinds of people are on linkedin. Then how many arent. No wonder Austin shows well on a LinkedIn sourced outcome. 

Unfortunately, I'd be that the people on Linkedin and the people who can move during a pandemic because they're teleworking are probably pretty similar.

Much of the anecdotal stories here about people moving to CLE are from NJ or NY state or other older places, not sunbelt cities. I just looked at the WSJ article posted a few posts ago. Yes, Cleveland has more outflow than inflow in the LinkedIn analysis, but Cleveland's ratio of people moving in vs. moving out is higher than that of Chicago, SF, and NYC.  Here's the chart from the article:

 

No paywall on this article.....

 

Cleveland ranks fifth in new resident gain during the pandemic, according to LinkedIn

https://www.cleveland.com/news/2021/03/cleveland-ranks-fifth-in-new-resident-gain-during-the-pandemic-according-to-linkedin.html

 

 

2 hours ago, KJP said:

No paywall on this article.....

 

Cleveland ranks fifth in new resident gain during the pandemic, according to LinkedIn

https://www.cleveland.com/news/2021/03/cleveland-ranks-fifth-in-new-resident-gain-during-the-pandemic-according-to-linkedin.html

 

 

I think it's important that this is a "net" gain, not just a growth of inbound numbers while ignoring the outbound.

More depth of analysis is needed. At this time, many people can work from home. So the location of home doesn't matter. But rent is real--so paying $3,000 in NYC vs. $1,000 here makes a difference. When the pandemic is over and some of those 'work from home' jobs return to the office, will those people return to those cities or will they instead look for--or have already found--new jobs based here? Not to be downer, but its too early to celebrate yet and there seems to be no analysis at all of the data other than a person changed their city location from one place to another.

14 minutes ago, Pugu said:

More depth of analysis is needed. At this time, many people can work from home. So the location of home doesn't matter. But rent is real--so paying $3,000 in NYC vs. $1,000 here makes a difference. When the pandemic is over and some of those 'work from home' jobs return to the office, will those people return to those cities or will they instead look for--or have already found--new jobs based here? Not to be downer, but its too early to celebrate yet and there seems to be no analysis at all of the data other than a person changed their city location from one place to another.

 

It's also just one internet site.  It's a very narrow, limited metric to be using for overall trends, the same as using U-Haul or any other singular company.  Any good news is still good news, but I hope people aren't assuming this means the city is growing overall based on this one thing.

39 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

It's also just one internet site.  It's a very narrow, limited metric to be using for overall trends, the same as using U-Haul or any other singular company.  Any good news is still good news, but I hope people aren't assuming this means the city is growing overall based on this one thing.

There is another point to consider and that is the statement in the first paragraph in the article:  "The Cleveland region saw one of the biggest gains in net new residents during the pandemic, according to a new study, adding more proof that the virus is altering migration patterns."  It will be interesting to see how the numbers shake out from the census and other sites.  Where are the gains happening?  We need to see if the gains are in the city, suburbs or evenly distributed, plus what is considered as part of the Cleveland region for this study.

16 minutes ago, LifeLongClevelander said:

There is another point to consider and that is the statement in the first paragraph in the article:  "The Cleveland region saw one of the biggest gains in net new residents during the pandemic, according to a new study, adding more proof that the virus is altering migration patterns."  It will be interesting to see how the numbers shake out from the census and other sites.  Where are the gains happening?  We need to see if the gains are in the city, suburbs or evenly distributed, plus what is considered as part of the Cleveland region for this study.

 

You're right, that is an important point.  The metro/NEO could be seeing that growth, but not the city, specifically.  

17 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

You're right, that is an important point.  The metro/NEO could be seeing that growth, but not the city, specifically.  

The fastest growing areas in Greater Cleveland are downtown, Ohio City and University Circle. These three sub markets have added over 5k units since 2018. 
 

Avon, North Ridgeville and Westlake have also seen growth, but no where near what the city is currently experiencing.

Edited March 20, 20214 yr by Clefan98

On LinkedIn, someone's region is based on what zip code he/she enters for himself.  If you enter anything 441-- that's Cleveland. If you enter, e.g., 44312 (Akron), it shows up as Akron OH. If you live in 44012--which is Avon Lake---but clearly part of the Cleveland market---it shows up as "Avon Lake OH".  If it were me--and I lived in 44012, I would put 441--something, so it shows up as Cleveland, and not Avon Lake.  How many people do that though?  Or is LinkedIn actually taking the Avon Lakes of the world and using it in their "Cleveland" definition? Probably not. But given that Avon Lake does not get classified as "Cleveland" automatically and many people may not go out of their way to make this distinction, that means the "Cleveland" numbers that Linkedin uses are probably 441xx people, which is most of Cuyahoga county (it excludes only a few communities like Berea and Chagrin Falls, which are 440xx). So that's good--that means the real locations are Cleveland proper and the Cuyahoga suburbs---not the sprawland of Medina, Geauga, etc.

Edited March 20, 20214 yr by Pugu

 

This certainly doesn't help the city's numbers, though with the 2020 Census taken so late in the year (even though its based on April 1), who knows how this impact will be reflected.  (Crossposted in the Ohio Population thread):

 

With the last of the death reports from 2020 still trickling in, the Ohio Department of Health is now reporting that at least 143,558 Ohioans died last year from all causes amid coronavirus - an increase of nearly 20,000 from the year before. The increase amounts to 16%.

 

https://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/2021/03/ohio-deaths-in-2020-increased-by-nearly-20000-latest-data-shows.html

Interesting stuff....

 

And

 

Tons of interesting info in the databook which can be found here:

 

https://www.countyplanning.us/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/2021-Data-Book_3-31-21.pdf

Agreed--interesting info.  I love looking at stats--thanks for posting. Found this particularly interesting:

• Population density---always knew Lakewood was higher than CLE----but so are Univ Hts and Parma Hts--according to the book. CLE ranked 5th.
• Linndale has an unusually low %age of HH's with 2 people. 8% are 2 people HH. (p. 25) Every other community seems to be in the range of 25-35% on average. 
• Linndale--45% of population speak Spanish at home--biggest of any community. (p.29)
• In terms of % of jobs in the county, Independence is ranked fourth (ha-ha!), beat out by Westlake #2 and Solon #3 (p.33)
• For jobs in the City of CLE, 60% of workers commute into the city (from the burbs).  (My own commentary here:  Some are office, some are not; but for those jobs that could be work from home, I hope those jobs return to the physical office, otherwise that will be a big financial income tax impact to the city if income tax rules let burbs keep that money.) (p. 39)
• Highland Hills (along the otherwise big money 271 corridor) ranks 3rd in terms of population in poverty (after Linndale and E. CLE)  (p.47) (why is this the case?)
• In North Randall, 78% of Households are renter occupied (highest in county); for comparison, in CLE it is 58%. (p. 59)
• Map on p. 64 clearly shows--by census track--where housing most recently built around the county
• Only 72% of CLE's population lives with a 1/4 mile of a transit stop (That's WAY too low) (p.95)

 

6 minutes ago, Pugu said:

Agreed--interesting info.  I love looking at stats--thanks for posting. Found this particularly interesting:

• Population density---always knew Lakewood was higher than CLE----but so are Univ Hts and Parma Hts--according to the book. CLE ranked 5th.
• Linndale has an unusually low %age of HH's with 2 people. 8% are 2 people HH. (p. 25) Every other community seems to be in the range of 25-35% on average. 
• Linndale--45% of population speak Spanish at home--biggest of any community. (p.29)
• In terms of % of jobs in the county, Independence is ranked fourth (ha-ha!), beat out by Westlake #2 and Solon #3 (p.33)
• For jobs in the City of CLE, 60% of workers commute into the city (from the burbs).  (My own commentary here:  Some are office, some are not; but for those jobs that could be work from home, I hope those jobs return to the physical office, otherwise that will be a big financial income tax impact to the city if income tax rules let burbs keep that money.) (p. 39)
• Highland Hills (along the otherwise big money 271 corridor) ranks 3rd in terms of population in poverty (after Linndale and E. CLE)  (p.47) (why is this the case?)
• In North Randall, 78% of Households are renter occupied (highest in county); for comparison, in CLE it is 58%. (p. 59)
• Map on p. 64 clearly shows--by census track--where housing most recently built around the county
• Only 72% of CLE's population lives with a 1/4 mile of a transit stop (That's WAY too low) (p.95)

 

I think the Linndale stuff is just an artifact of low sample size and can't really be looked at in a broader context. There's only 160 people in Linndale which means ~72 people speak Spanish at home.

The population density doesn't surprise me. Much of the east side is a mix of low rise industry and urban prairie. There are entire blocks with just a few houses still standing.

Yeah the data I think also shows that if Millennials and Gen Z were having kids at the same rate as say the Baby Boomers or even Gen X the population of the county and especially Cleveland would be going up.  I know several Millennials who don't want to have kids or if they do have kids it's two max.  Larger families are a thing of the past amongst young professionals due to things like the number of women in the workforce and the desire to not settle or slow down.

1 hour ago, Pugu said:

 

• Highland Hills (along the otherwise big money 271 corridor) ranks 3rd in terms of population in poverty (after Linndale and E. CLE)  (p.47) (why is this the case?)

 

There are only 5 residential streets in Highland Hills. While it may have the flashy office campuses along Harvard and Green, most of the residential is very modest small bungalows with more in common with the nearby Cleveland and Warrensville neighborhoods. The majority of the residential units also seem to be in the very run down apartment complex at Warrensville/Harvard.

@dastler Perhaps you can shed some light on this.... When the above chart say that Cleveland has seen an increase in 3,899 households between 2014-19, is that a net change?

 

And if that's a net change, what might that mean for population change in Cleveland?

 

What kind of change, if any, are we seeing in the number of people per household in Cleveland?

3 minutes ago, KJP said:

@dastler Perhaps you can shed some light on this.... When the above chart say that Cleveland has seen an increase in 3,899 households between 2014-19, is that a net change?

 

And if that's a net change, what might that mean for population change in Cleveland?

 

What kind of change, if any, are we seeing in the number of people per household in Cleveland?

 

Fewer children per household overwhelms household growth.   Joanna Ganning of CSU posted this on Twitter last summer:

 

 

 

19 hours ago, PoshSteve said:

There are only 5 residential streets in Highland Hills. While it may have the flashy office campuses along Harvard and Green, most of the residential is very modest small bungalows with more in common with the nearby Cleveland and Warrensville neighborhoods. The majority of the residential units also seem to be in the very run down apartment complex at Warrensville/Harvard.

I'm willing to bet it's more that the Correctional facility population is overwhelming the statistics.

57 minutes ago, infrafreak said:

I'm willing to bet it's more that the Correctional facility population is overwhelming the statistics.

 

I never knew this was there (https://dys.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/dys/facilities/cuyahoga-hills-jcf/02-cuyahoga-hills-jcf). Did it move there after the place on 22 St closed? or was 22 St. Juvie Hall just the courts which has moved to 93 and Quincy?

For you license plate watching folks, here's some actual data based on USPS change of address requests:

 

https://www.cbre.us/research-and-reports/COVID-19-Impact-on-Resident-Migration-Patterns

 

Tabs 10 and 12 allow you to look up information specific to the Cleveland Metro.

 

Data looks positive, but I wish it were broken down more clearly.

26 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said:

For you license plate watching folks, here's some actual data based on USPS change of address requests:

 

https://www.cbre.us/research-and-reports/COVID-19-Impact-on-Resident-Migration-Patterns

 

Tabs 10 and 12 allow you to look up information specific to the Cleveland Metro.

 

Data looks positive, but I wish it were broken down more clearly.

 

I did some back-of-napkin math based on the data available in tab 12. Looks like in 2020 the Cleveland metro experienced a slight net outflow of domestic migrants. If you disregard the outflow to other Ohio metros, then there is a slight net inflow, meaning in 2020 the metro gained more from out of state domestic migration than it lost from it.

 

The data is of course incomplete because it doesn't include international immigration and because not everyone necessarily fills out a change of address with the post office.

Man, that data is hard to use. Couldn't  export it into excel---had to manually write numbers.  Acc. to the data presented in 2020:

 

CLE MSA moves WITHIN CLE MSA was 143,181.  

 

2020-- to CLE MSA:   170,660; out of MSA:  171,219.

To CLE MSA from anywhere in OH (incl CLE):  156,879;  From CLE to anywhere in OH (incl CLE):  157,968

 

TO - FROM  CLE and the following places (2020)

 

Akron  5,598   6,422

Columbus   1,554     1,660

NYC   1,275   465

Canton     773   747

LA   673   747

 

Edit:  hopefully @jonoh81or someone else can have better luck on the analysis and can post a table by MSA!

Edited April 20, 20214 yr by Pugu

4 minutes ago, Pugu said:

2020-- to CLE MSA:   170,660; out of MSA:  171,219.

 

Assuming this is accurate. Applying 2.1 persons per household, that means a LOSS of 1,274 people from the CLE MSA in 2020.

Was able to do a screen shot of the top corresponding MSAs:

 

TO CLE MSA:

 

FROM CLE MSA:

 

 

https://www.cbre.us/research-and-reports/COVID-19-Impact-on-Resident-Migration-Patterns  TAB 12.

 

 

 

39 minutes ago, Pugu said:

 

Assuming this is accurate. Applying 2.1 persons per household, that means a LOSS of 1,274 people from the CLE MSA in 2020.

Yeah with deaths likely outweighing births (due to COVID) I think we will see a loss of around 2k overall.

As we were discussing in the Ohio population thread, Ohio's population was underestimated by about 110,000. That's a significant enough bump that I have to think the NEO population loss was at least not any worse than was projected. What's the over under on how many of those are in Cleveland, Cuyahoga County, or NEO?

1 hour ago, LlamaLawyer said:

As we were discussing in the Ohio population thread, Ohio's population was underestimated by about 110,000. That's a significant enough bump that I have to think the NEO population loss was at least not any worse than was projected. What's the over under on how many of those are in Cleveland, Cuyahoga County, or NEO?

 

There could well be population growth in NEO!  If we were undercounting Ohio by 110k, I'd like to put 90k in the city of cleveland, 15k in suburban cuyahoga, and 5k in the rest of the state.

Important dates:  

 

County population and demographic components of population change - May 4, 2021

City and town (incorporated place and minor civil division) population - May 27, 2021

 

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/about/schedule.html

 

So the county data is only 8 days away!

1 hour ago, Pugu said:

Important dates:  

 

County population and demographic components of population change - May 4, 2021

City and town (incorporated place and minor civil division) population - May 27, 2021

 

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/about/schedule.html

 

So the county data is only 8 days away!

Aren’t those still just estimates?

9 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said:

Aren’t those still just estimates?

 

Ah, unfortunately, you are correct. I just read the find print:  "Dates are subject to change."

14 hours ago, Pugu said:

 

There could well be population growth in NEO!  If we were undercounting Ohio by 110k, I'd like to put 90k in the city of cleveland, 15k in suburban cuyahoga, and 5k in the rest of the state.

This would honestly shock me. A discrepancy of 90k in Cleveland would mean Cleveland was one of the fastest growing cities in the country over the last ten years. But if just 16k of the 110k fall in the City of Cleveland, that would mean a very slight gain of residents since 2010. That’s not far fetched. 

I wouldn't be too surprised if alot of the state underestimate was from NEO. I wouldn't even be surprised if Cbus and central Ohio were still overestimated at the same time. The Census methodology is the same across the board, and just compare where the estimates were off nationally. They over estimates the traditional high growth areas, and underestimated the slow growth areas - massively so in some cases like NY/NJ. It's definitely possible the same happened in Ohio, with slow growth NEO being underestimated and fast growth central Ohio being over estimated. 

I think we could look to job growth numbers to tell if the region grew or not. I don’t think we grew this census, unfortunately, but I also don’t think we shrank much, if at all. The shedding of manufacturing (down to 11% of the region’s workforce the last time I checked, on par with many other metros) and the growth of eds-and-meds (20% of the region’s workforce and growing) point to growth in the region this coming decade. 
 

Growth or not this census, the good news is I’m pretty sure we hit bottom this past decade and are bouncing back. It’s been said before, I’m sure- but this time it’s not just based on hope... this time the numbers point in the right direction.

Edited April 27, 20214 yr by Oldmanladyluck

I am definitely amused by the fact that folks in this thread are pretty sure most of the 110k population surplus will fall in northeast Ohio, while most folks in the Columbus thread expect the Columbus metro to pick up most of the same 110k.

1 hour ago, Oldmanladyluck said:

I think we could look to job growth numbers to tell if the region grew or not. I don’t think we grew this census, unfortunately, but I also don’t think we shrank much, if at all. The shedding of manufacturing (down to 11% of the region’s workforce the last time I checked, on par with many other metros) and the growth of eds-and-meds (20% of the region’s workforce and growing) point to growth in the region this coming decade. 
 

Growth or not this census, the good news is I’m pretty sure we hit bottom this past decade and are bouncing back. It’s been said before, I’m sure- but this time it’s not just based on hope... this time the numbers point in the right direction.

I'm not sure about eds and meds representing "growth" - nearly every city has a robust education and medical economy - Cleveland's is weighted more on meds than eds; Pittsburgh is pretty balanced; Columbus is more ed - but these are not "growth industries' generally, they are service and professional jobs that pay alright, but they aren't generating enormous wealth like tech or manufacturing. Just about every city I'm aware resting on eds and meds reflects a metro area in decline: Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Cleveland, and smaller midwest cities to name a few. 

Edited April 28, 20214 yr by westerninterloper

30 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said:

I am definitely amused by the fact that folks in this thread are pretty sure most of the 110k population surplus will fall in northeast Ohio, while most folks in the Columbus thread expect the Columbus metro to pick up most of the same 110k.

This!^ I was thinking the same thing and laughing! Meanwhile the Cincinnati folks are mostly silent so maybe they are gonna be the surprise growth area haha. I honestly haven’t got a clue how the numbers are gonna turn out, I think there is a chance that the growth is going to be more evenly distributed among the 3Cs than most are expecting. I can’t wait til the speculation is over.

1 hour ago, westerninterloper said:

I'm not sure about eds and meds representing "growth" - nearly every city has a robust education and medical economy - Cleveland's is weighted more on meds than eds; Pittsburgh is pretty balanced; Columbus is more ed - but these are not "growth industries' generally, they are service and professional jobs that pay alright, but they aren't generating enormous wealth like tech or manufacturing. Just about every city I'm aware resting on eds and meds reflects a metro area in decline: Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Cleveland, and smaller midwest cities to name a few. 

Generating wealth is one thing. Generating jobs is another. Typically regions adding jobs in whatever the field, more than loosing them tend to be areas growing economically as well as population wise.

11 hours ago, 646empire said:

This!^ I was thinking the same thing and laughing! Meanwhile the Cincinnati folks are mostly silent so maybe they are gonna be the surprise growth area haha. I honestly haven’t got a clue how the numbers are gonna turn out, I think there is a chance that the growth is going to be more evenly distributed among the 3Cs than most are expecting. I can’t wait til the speculation is over.

I have a hunch that's exactly what's going to happen. That 110k gap is going to be fairly evenly distributed throughout the state. I could see ~25k going to each of the three Cs with the rest going to smaller metros like Toledo, Akron, Canton, and Dayton. The only areas I can't imagine seeing much "surprise" growth in are small towns and rural areas because there's zero evidence of those areas growing the last decade unlike in the more urban and suburban metros.

Edited April 28, 20214 yr by jmicha
Typo

9 hours ago, Mov2Ohio said:

Generating wealth is one thing. Generating jobs is another. Typically regions adding jobs in whatever the field, more than loosing them tend to be areas growing economically as well as population wise.

Not trying to put words in anybody’s mouth but by “generating wealth” I think @westerninterloperwas saying bringing wealth into the region. Tech and manufacturing are export industries that bring in money from outside the regional economy. “Eds and meds” generally refers to services that simply redistribute money within a local economy. Certainly there are exceptions, especially in medical research. But most medical jobs here are not new research positions. Same reason I’m always dubious when a developer says a new retail development, sports facility, etc. is going to create “x” number of jobs. They’re not really creating new jobs, they’re redistributing existing regional capital.

5 minutes ago, bumsquare said:

Not trying to put words in anybody’s mouth but by “generating wealth” I think @westerninterloperwas saying bringing wealth into the region. Tech and manufacturing are export industries that bring in money from outside the regional economy. “Eds and meds” generally refers to services that simply redistribute money within a local economy. Certainly there are exceptions, especially in medical research. But most medical jobs here are not new research positions. Same reason I’m always dubious when a developer says a new retail development, sports facility, etc. is going to create “x” number of jobs. They’re not really creating new jobs, they’re redistributing existing regional capital.

I agree with this to a degree. Export based jobs are always better. However, local retail businesses are considered import replacements. So if we can develop more local restaurants, for instance, then it is better than an outside chain because that is an import. 

There's a pretty sizable "export" component to the [expanding] Cleveland Clinic main campus and, to a lesser degree, UH.  Tons of patients from outside the metro and even outside the larger region getting high cost specialized care. 

11 hours ago, westerninterloper said:

I'm not sure about eds and meds representing "growth" - nearly every city has a robust education and medical economy - Cleveland's is weighted more on meds than eds; Pittsburgh is pretty balanced; Columbus is more ed - but these are not "growth industries' generally, they are service and professional jobs that pay alright, but they aren't generating enormous wealth like tech or manufacturing. Just about every city I'm aware resting on eds and meds reflects a metro area in decline: Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Cleveland, and smaller midwest cities to name a few. 

 

 

Here's the region's job numbers from 1990 to 2021 per the BLS.  

 

The first peak was before NAFTA.  The drop off after the peak was around the 2001-2002 recession.  Then came the Great Recession in 2008.  The time period between 2000 and 2010 shows no job growth, hence another decade of stagnation for the region with unchecked sprawl.

 

The growth after the great recession accounts for the next ten years- and it wasn't until last year where the region finally came ahead of the job losses we took from the Great Recession.  But as can be seen, we have yet to account for the jobs lost before NAFTA.  

 

The last drop off was due to the shut-down of jobs from the pandemic.  There's a good chance that the economy this time around will rebound much more quickly than in previous time periods.

 

The time period before 2000 and before NAFTA was the last time period the region actually grew in population, which was at about 2% if memory serves me correctly.  The growth could be seen through the jobs gained.

 

During that time period, the region was much more dependent on manufacturing.  The time period between the last twenty years where the region shed manufacturing jobs and saw them replaced in large part on a one-to-one basis by eds-and-meds had to happen.  Regardless of recessions, this time period was bound to be rough for the region.  We can see the physical signs of the last 20 years of stagnation in the lost housing stock and commercial corridors throughout much of the east-side of the city, with the inner-ring suburbs also being affected.   

 

The numbers FINALLY point in the right direction this time around, with eds-and-meds being a growing sector which is much less affected by economic downturns than manufacturing.  We have reason to be optomistic- but I would again not bet that the region grew this time around.  Maybe by a little, but not by much.  If it shrunk, it may have by a little, but not by much.  The numbers show it. 

4 hours ago, bumsquare said:

Not trying to put words in anybody’s mouth but by “generating wealth” I think @westerninterloperwas saying bringing wealth into the region. Tech and manufacturing are export industries that bring in money from outside the regional economy. “Eds and meds” generally refers to services that simply redistribute money within a local economy. Certainly there are exceptions, especially in medical research. But most medical jobs here are not new research positions. Same reason I’m always dubious when a developer says a new retail development, sports facility, etc. is going to create “x” number of jobs. They’re not really creating new jobs, they’re redistributing existing regional capital.

 

I work in higher education, and most of the women in my family are nurses. These are obviously good jobs, better than most other service/professional jobs, so they provide solid incomes for residents, but none of us have ever received "bonuses" or imagine that we are going to make hundreds of thousands of dollars a year, or even for one year. These kinds of jobs can sustain a region, they are a solid foundation, but they don't account for much "growth" that can be seen with manufacturing, banking, or technology. My brother works in tech, and regularly gets 10-20K annual bonuses, and has been able to rise through the ranks to make a much better salary (with a BA) than I have with a PhD. Eds and meds are crucial for every urban economy now, but Seattle, the Bay Area, Austin or Atlanta aren't relying on public service - medicine and universities - to drive their economies. Those places with high wage job growth do it through business and industry, not public services. 

47 minutes ago, westerninterloper said:

 

I work in higher education, and most of the women in my family are nurses. These are obviously good jobs, better than most other service/professional jobs, so they provide solid incomes for residents, but none of us have ever received "bonuses" or imagine that we are going to make hundreds of thousands of dollars a year, or even for one year. These kinds of jobs can sustain a region, they are a solid foundation, but they don't account for much "growth" that can be seen with manufacturing, banking, or technology. My brother works in tech, and regularly gets 10-20K annual bonuses, and has been able to rise through the ranks to make a much better salary (with a BA) than I have with a PhD. Eds and meds are crucial for every urban economy now, but Seattle, the Bay Area, Austin or Atlanta aren't relying on public service - medicine and universities - to drive their economies. Those places with high wage job growth do it through business and industry, not public services. 

Again, wealth and jobs are two different things.

 

Regions attracting jobs also attract people. Medical Care is an industry. The Police are a public service. 

42 minutes ago, westerninterloper said:

 

I work in higher education, and most of the women in my family are nurses. These are obviously good jobs, better than most other service/professional jobs, so they provide solid incomes for residents, but none of us have ever received "bonuses" or imagine that we are going to make hundreds of thousands of dollars a year, or even for one year. These kinds of jobs can sustain a region, they are a solid foundation, but they don't account for much "growth" that can be seen with manufacturing, banking, or technology. My brother works in tech, and regularly gets 10-20K annual bonuses, and has been able to rise through the ranks to make a much better salary (with a BA) than I have with a PhD. Eds and meds are crucial for every urban economy now, but Seattle, the Bay Area, Austin or Atlanta aren't relying on public service - medicine and universities - to drive their economies. Those places with high wage job growth do it through business and industry, not public services. 

In most cases eds and meds don't mean much growth but that is not the case in Cleveland (with meds).  The Clinic regularly attracts extremely wealthy people from outside the region to dump money in the region when they have procedures.  It is not just people in Cleveland using the Clinic.  Furthermore, we have spins offs and new companies from all the research happening in the meds realm.  Finally, we have the 1000 person pathogen research center that is coming.  The medical realm, while there is no bonuses, does quite well in terms of well paying jobs with many doctors and researchers at the Clinic making money comparable to the tech realm.

 

Just look at the fact that from 1990 to now the amount of jobs in the eds and meds had almost gone up 100k people (pre-COVID) with a stagnant region (I know there is aging but that wouldn't account for 100k jobs).  Now, this might lend to your point that they can sustain a region and not grow it but I'd argue that once everything else stabilizes, it will be a reason why we are growing.  Without the rise in the Clincand the meds sector our region would be way worse off than it is now IMO

 

I 100% agree that an economy can't solely be based on ed/meds but I think for our region it can account for more growth that people realize.