2 minutes ago, Mov2Ohio said:

Again, wealth and jobs are two different things.

 

Regions attracting jobs also attract people. Medical Care is an industry. The Police are a public service. 

Medicine is a service, not an industry. It's trying to be an industry in this country, but that's why so many people hate it. It doesn't produce wealth except through exorbitant billing; at best it maintains wealth. Same with police, fire, schools. Jobs cannot be separated from wealth. if you're creating jobs without creating wealth, you're just eating your own feet. Wealth **creates** jobs. 

On 4/28/2021 at 2:56 PM, cle_guy90 said:

In most cases eds and meds don't mean much growth but that is not the case in Cleveland (with meds).  The Clinic regularly attracts extremely wealthy people from outside the region to dump money in the region when they have procedures.  It is not just people in Cleveland using the Clinic.  Furthermore, we have spins offs and new companies from all the research happening in the meds realm.  Finally, we have the 1000 person pathogen research center that is coming.  The medical realm, while there is no bonuses, does quite well in terms of well paying jobs with many doctors and researchers at the Clinic making money comparable to the tech realm.

 

Just look at the fact that from 1990 to now the amount of jobs in the eds and meds had almost gone up 100k people (pre-COVID) with a stagnant region (I know there is aging but that wouldn't account for 100k jobs).  Now, this might lend to your point that they can sustain a region and not grow it but I'd argue that once everything else stabilizes, it will be a reason why we are growing.  Without the rise in the Clincand the meds sector our region would be way worse off than it is now IMO

 

I 100% agree that an economy can't solely be based on ed/meds but I think for our region it can account for more growth that people realize.  

I agree that meds are a big part of the CLE economy, but it's extractive, not generative. People don't spend on health care except under duress; it's not an "investment", it doesn't create wealth among its users except to keep them producing the same as before. Medicine cannot be compared to tech; in the latter, employees may become millionaires overnight with an IPO or a buyout; that will never happen for a teacher, professor, nurse or doctor - ever. Manufacturing employees can also make enormous bonuses that service jobs - including medicine and education - will never have. And Cleveland and its metro aren't growing; it's been stagnant at best since 1970. The growth that CLE is seeing now is catch-up for thirty years of nearly nothing - its replacing what was lost, not gaining. I see exactly the same processes in Toledo, where automobile manufacturing is still a significant part of the economy. The Toledo Jeep plant alone brings almost $400 million in salaries each year, more than any university in the area. I know it's exciting to finally see infill in Cleveland, Detroit and Pittsburgh, but relative to the national and global economy, these cities are far less relevant than they were before de-industrialization. Eds and meds do mitigate the heavy industrial losses, but they can at best only return a metropolitan economy to some level of prosperity. 

Edited May 7, 20214 yr by westerninterloper

6 minutes ago, westerninterloper said:

I agree that meds are a big part of the CLE economy, but it's extractive, not generative. People don't spend on health care except under duress; it's not an "investment", it doesn't create wealth among its users except to keep them producing the same as before. Medicine cannot be compared to tech; in the latter, employees may become millionaires overnight with an IPO or a buyout; that will never happen for a teacher, professor, nurse or doctor - ever. Manufacturing employees can also make enormous bonuses that service jobs - including medicine and education - will never have. And Cleveland and its metro aren't growing; it's been stagnant at best since 1970. The growth that CLE is seeing now is catch-up for thirty years of nearly nothing - its replacing what was lost, not gaining. I see exactly the same processes in Toledo, where automobile manufacturing is still a significant part of the economy. The Toledo Jeep plant alone brings almost $400 million in salaries each year, more than any university in the area. I know it's exciting to finally see infill in Cleveland, Detroit and Pittsburgh, but relative to the national and global economy, these cities are far less relevant than they were before industrialization. Eds and meds do mitigate the heavy industrial losses, but they return a metropolitan economy to general prosperity. 

Except when you have a global presence like the Cleveland Clinic that literally imports patients (at around a rate of 200k-400k more people) from out of the region. @KJPI believe knows the import statistic. That alone value adds a remarkable amount of jobs for Doctors ($100k salaries and up to well over a million) to nurses ($50k to $90k) and other jobs below those. 

 

Then there's the spinoff tech companies that locate close by to partner with these top tier institutions. Hell even IBM just built a building next to the Clinic. Same can be said with education and spinoff, especially near research universities like Case.

 

So really it's not as cut and dry as you think it is with eds/meds versus manufacturing. Especially considering manufacturing is always becoming more and more automated. 

 

 

On 4/26/2021 at 7:16 PM, Pugu said:

Important dates:  

 

County population and demographic components of population change - May 4, 2021

City and town (incorporated place and minor civil division) population - May 27, 2021

 

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/about/schedule.html

 

So the county data is only 8 days away!

 

On 4/26/2021 at 8:51 PM, LlamaLawyer said:

Aren’t those still just estimates?

 

On 4/26/2021 at 9:00 PM, Pugu said:

 

Ah, unfortunately, you are correct. I just read the find print:  "Dates are subject to change."

 

 

Today is May 4th. Was hoping the Census Bureau was on schedule with their estimates but I have not heard anything yet.

 

I am seeing information that suggests that, while the 2020 county estimates won't be the official census numbers, they may have been adjusted based on the 2020 state census results.  That's not confirmed yet, but they might be closer to the official numbers than we think.

13 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

I am seeing information that suggests that, while the 2020 county estimates won't be the official census numbers, they may have been adjusted based on the 2020 state census results.  That's not confirmed yet, but they might be closer to the official numbers than we think.

Are those estimates coming out today?

If they are not OFFICIAL, then they are more subject to public outrage/discussion/demands for change, etc. That's not good. I'd rather the Census release OFFICIAL numbers then "temporary" ones as the unofficial ones are guaranteed to start gunfights.

34 minutes ago, TH3BUDDHA said:

Are those estimates coming out today?

 

Supposedly at 3pm EST.

2 hours ago, jonoh81 said:

 

Supposedly at 3pm EST.

They're out now. It's immediately apparent they weren't revised at all based on the 2020 state-level actuals, so I'm not sure what it's worth. They have Cuyahoga County falling slightly from 2019 to 2020 at essentially the same rate as 2018 to 2019.

23 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said:

They're out now. It's immediately apparent they weren't revised at all based on the 2020 state-level actuals, so I'm not sure what it's worth. They have Cuyahoga County falling slightly from 2019 to 2020 at essentially the same rate as 2018 to 2019.

Where are you seeing it?

Edit: NVM I see it

Edited May 4, 20214 yr by TH3BUDDHA

What's the point of these? These are 2020 estimates based on the 2010 Census (and yearly estimates to 2019).  Here's a link to the useless data:  https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/research/evaluation-estimates.html

For my love of data, I couldn't resist at least looking at the release. Here's some light analysis:

 

4 hours ago, Pugu said:

If they are not OFFICIAL, then they are more subject to public outrage/discussion/demands for change, etc. That's not good. I'd rather the Census release OFFICIAL numbers then "temporary" ones as the unofficial ones are guaranteed to start gunfights.

 

It's not official vs. unofficial. It's just a different program. These are the annual population estimates, which is different from the decennial Census. They are produced every year using births, deaths, and migration factored from the last decennial Census. Since the 2020 decennial numbers aren't available yet these are still using the 2010 base year. They're not that useful this year for most people since we have decennial Census numbers coming soon, but they still produce them, just like they produced them in 2019 and they'll produce them in 2021. For those of us that use this data, sometimes you can't compare the decennial numbers to the intercensal numbers so it's helpful to have access to this dataset still.

11 minutes ago, DEPACincy said:

 

It's not official vs. unofficial. It's just a different program. These are the annual population estimates, which is different from the decennial Census. They are produced every year using births, deaths, and migration factored from the last decennial Census. Since the 2020 decennial numbers aren't available yet these are still using the 2010 base year. They're not that useful this year for most people since we have decennial Census numbers coming soon, but they still produce them, just like they produced them in 2019 and they'll produce them in 2021. For those of us that use this data, sometimes you can't compare the decennial numbers to the intercensal numbers so it's helpful to have access to this dataset still.

 

I was responding to the person who said that the numbers to be released were not the "official" numbers. Hence my response. Estimates ARE official numbers. If he said "Estimate" that's a different story and I know they release them even in census years. I thought the poster was saying they were releasing 2020 Census (count, not estimate) numbers but they would not be official---just temporary.  My other point though was that now that they have released statewide actual numbers, we KNOW the state number is wrong for the 2020 estimate, meaning the accuracy or usefulness of the data for every single county comes into question for 2020 (assuming we accept the 2020 numbers as fact).

Interesting the 2020 estimate was down from 2019. Which means the extra 110k somewhere in the state is really an extra 113k! 😉

2 hours ago, Pugu said:

 

I was responding to the person who said that the numbers to be released were not the "official" numbers. Hence my response. Estimates ARE official numbers. If he said "Estimate" that's a different story and I know they release them even in census years. I thought the poster was saying they were releasing 2020 Census (count, not estimate) numbers but they would not be official---just temporary.  My other point though was that now that they have released statewide actual numbers, we KNOW the state number is wrong for the 2020 estimate, meaning the accuracy or usefulness of the data for every single county comes into question for 2020 (assuming we accept the 2020 numbers as fact).

 

I think you were reading far too much into what I said.  When I said "official", I was talking about the 2020 census numbers.  Obviously estimates are real numbers and official for that particular program, but since we already know the state was way off, it's to be expected that the counties will be too.  

Yeah. I had read "unofficial" as "may later be revised."  I'd prefer the terms "census" or "count" vs. "estimate". I realize "census" here could lead to confusion as well....but I mean the common noun, not that agency name.

Here are the numbers ordered by the old 2019 estimate, the revised 2019 estimate for the 2020 release, and the 2020 estimate by metro.  

Akron 

703,479-704,136-703,818

Canton

397,520-399,449-398,544

Cincinnati

2,221,208-2,205,111-2,214,370

Cleveland

2,048,449-2,057,650-2,053,841

Columbus

2,122,271-2,084,070-2,105,684

Dayton

807,611-803,899-805,688

Toledo

641,816-644,831-643,692

Youngstown

536,081-541,388-538,124

 

It's pretty clear the estimates program was having issues- particularly with Columbus and to a lesser extant Cincinnati- and are going to be way off from the final counts.  Its seems at some point it was decided the growth areas of the state were being overestimated, which kind of matches the underestimation of the state overall.  It will be interesting to see how this plays out with the final numbers.

 

Edited May 5, 20214 yr by jonoh81

The Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas Totals: 2010-2020 file on the Census website lists the following totals for the 3C's MSA population. Is this dataset revised for past years? 

11 hours ago, westcoast323 said:

The Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas Totals: 2010-2020 file on the Census website lists the following totals for the 3C's MSA population. Is this dataset revised for past years? 

 

You have a link?  I'm not seeing those numbers anywhere.

33 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

You have a link?  I'm not seeing those numbers anywhere.

 https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/research/evaluation-estimates/2020-evaluation-estimates/2010s-totals-metro-and-micro-statistical-areas.html This table appears to have higher estimates for both Cincinnati and Columbus

33 minutes ago, jonoh81 said:

 

You have a link?  I'm not seeing those numbers anywhere.

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2020/metro/totals/cbsa-est2020-alldata.csv

 

Column R

17 hours ago, Pugu said:

 

I was responding to the person who said that the numbers to be released were not the "official" numbers. Hence my response. Estimates ARE official numbers. If he said "Estimate" that's a different story and I know they release them even in census years. I thought the poster was saying they were releasing 2020 Census (count, not estimate) numbers but they would not be official---just temporary.  My other point though was that now that they have released statewide actual numbers, we KNOW the state number is wrong for the 2020 estimate, meaning the accuracy or usefulness of the data for every single county comes into question for 2020 (assuming we accept the 2020 numbers as fact).

 

Yea, I was just providing clarification. Also, this release revises past year estimates to make them more accurate. And the 2020 number will be revised in the future as well. I looked at the counties around Cincinnati and the 2019 number for each of them has now been revised upward. So Hamilton County showed a small loss between 2019 and 2020, but that's because they revised the 2019 number upwards. Using last year's 2019 estimate Hamilton County still grew. It can get a little confusing.

On 5/4/2021 at 4:32 PM, Pugu said:

For my love of data, I couldn't resist at least looking at the release. Here's some light analysis:

 

Have Summit and Portage County been added to Cleveland's Metro? 

17 minutes ago, westakron1 said:

Have Summit and Portage County been added to Cleveland's Metro? 

 

Summit and Portage County have always been part of the Metro (or Greater) Cleveland. They are no longer part of the Cleveland "MSA" as currently drawn, so Census data must always be used carefully, as "Cleveland MSA" is only part of Cleveland. To minimize confusion that is caused by the government, I added "7-county" to my total to differentiate it from "MSA" or "5-county".

Edited May 6, 20214 yr by Pugu

13 minutes ago, Pugu said:

 

Summit and Portage County have always been part of the Metro (or Greater) Cleveland. They are no longer part of the Cleveland "MSA" as currently drawn, so Census data must always be used carefully, as "Cleveland MSA" is only part of Cleveland. To minimize confusion that is caused by the government, I added "7-county" to my total to differentiate it from "MSA" or "5-county".

Have they ever been a part of the MSA?  When were they removed from the MSA? 

^I thought it was but not sure. But in any event the boundaries of the "Cleveland MSA" are not the same as Metro Cleveland, which is 1.5x larger. 

1 hour ago, westakron1 said:

Have they ever been a part of the MSA?  When were they removed from the MSA? 

No they have never been a part of the Cleveland MSA. You have some who try to include Summit and Portage as Greater or Metro Cleveland, but those in the Akron Region calls themselves Greater and Metropolitan Akron. So it is somewhat muddled, depending on who you ask.

^Summit County (and maybe even eastern Medina and western Portage) certainly can be called "greater Akron", but "greater Cleveland" is definitely Cuyahoga and the surrounding six counties at the very minimum.

28 minutes ago, Pugu said:

^Summit County (and maybe even eastern Medina and western Portage) certainly can be called "greater Akron", but "greater Cleveland" is definitely Cuyahoga and the surrounding six counties at the very minimum.

The problem with your statement is that Macedonia, Twinsburg, Northfield and other cities in northern Summit County are Cleveland suburbs. This is what happens when metro areas are defined by county lines, which is the dumbest way that I can think of. The bottom line is that there is so much overlap between Cleveland and Akron, in reality they are in same metropolitan area. The reason they are in separate MSAs is because of politics. In other words, Akron officials don’t want there city to be seen as a Cleveland suburb. My guess is that these same officials would have no problem if Canton was merged with the Akron MSA and thus becoming an Akron suburb!! It’s funny how that works!!

Twinsburg and Northfield are as much Cleveland suburbs as Kent and Wadsworth are Akron suburbs.

 

Agreed that county lines are the dumbest way to define metro areas.

1 minute ago, NEOBuckeye said:

Twinsburg and Northfield are as much Cleveland suburbs as Kent and Wadsworth are Akron suburbs.

 

Agreed that county lines are the dumbest way to define metro areas.

While I agree that Wadsworth is an Akron suburb, it’s in the Cleveland MSA.

5 minutes ago, pontiac51 said:

While I agree that Wadsworth is an Akron suburb, it’s in the Cleveland MSA.

 

As it should be. ALL of the current Cleveland MSA and Summit and Portage counties should be in the Cleveland MSA.  Since MSAs cannot overlap, this would be the best way to define the Cleveland MSA. "Greater ____" are based on unofficial boundaries--so "Greater Akron" can define itself however it wants, just as could "Greater Chagrin Falls."

Comparing Akron to Chagrin Falls isn't exactly helping your case for Akronites to take this "merger" seriously.  If you want to include Akron into a larger MSA, politically, it should be called Greater Cleveland-Akron.

4 hours ago, ColDayMan said:

Comparing Akron to Chagrin Falls isn't exactly helping your case for Akronites to take this "merger" seriously.  If you want to include Akron into a larger MSA, politically, it should be called Greater Cleveland-Akron.

That would already happen. Akron would be a principal city of the Cleveland-Akron-Elyria MSA. Realistically MSA's are pretty much a joke. In the current iteration of how to define them, you can't really compare apples to apples. Pittsburgh goes all the way down to WV because of the county line definitions. I think the urbanized definition works better for easier comparison. 

Summit county was never part of Cleveland's MSA. It is, however, part of the Cleveland-Akron-Canton CSA (Combined Statistical Area).  Cleveland MSA consists of Lorain, Cuyahoga, Medina, Lake and Geauga counties. 

Census tracts such as MSAs and CSAs are not determined by local officials, but by the United States Office of Management and Budget. 

I’m glad the census happens so infrequently that we only need to have these pointless MSA discussions once every ten years 😏

13 hours ago, ColDayMan said:

Comparing Akron to Chagrin Falls isn't exactly helping your case for Akronites to take this "merger" seriously.  If you want to include Akron into a larger MSA, politically, it should be called Greater Cleveland-Akron.

Thank you, I wasn't going to get into an argument over it but watching folks casually include Akron's MSA within "Metro Cleveland"  because 3(not even large) suburbs in Summit County are more closely aligned with Cleveland is always funny. Maybe sometime in near future it will happen but as of now it's not the case. 

13 hours ago, pontiac51 said:

The problem with your statement is that Macedonia, Twinsburg, Northfield and other cities in northern Summit County are Cleveland suburbs. This is what happens when metro areas are defined by county lines, which is the dumbest way that I can think of. The bottom line is that there is so much overlap between Cleveland and Akron, in reality they are in same metropolitan area. The reason they are in separate MSAs is because of politics. In other words, Akron officials don’t want there city to be seen as a Cleveland suburb. My guess is that these same officials would have no problem if Canton was merged with the Akron MSA and thus becoming an Akron suburb!! It’s funny how that works!!

The reason why the Akron politicians have no problem merging with the Canton Metro is because these two agree. Matter of fact the two have already applied to become one Metro ,and the O.M.B will determine this soon. The Akron and Canton areas are a lot more closely connected and interwoven than the Akron and Cleveland area. The southern boundary of Akron and the northern boundary of Canton is a ten to fifteen minute drive at the most, and their suburbs in between are contiguously developed and connected ironically by the Akron/Canton airport. So hopefully the 2020 census bureau will give us some clarity on how these Metros should be defined , though it wont end this discussion in Northeast Ohio. 

14 hours ago, pontiac51 said:

The problem with your statement is that Macedonia, Twinsburg, Northfield and other cities in northern Summit County are Cleveland suburbs. This is what happens when metro areas are defined by county lines, which is the dumbest way that I can think of. The bottom line is that there is so much overlap between Cleveland and Akron, in reality they are in same metropolitan area. The reason they are in separate MSAs is because of politics. In other words, Akron officials don’t want there city to be seen as a Cleveland suburb. My guess is that these same officials would have no problem if Canton was merged with the Akron MSA and thus becoming an Akron suburb!! It’s funny how that works!!

The Big difference is that Akron and Canton have 1. Always been aligned more from a cutural stand point and 2. See each other as peers. People in Akron don't see Canton as being suburb or little brother.  On this very thread (and on other websites) I've seen Cleveland boosters compare Akron to cities like Lorain, Elyria, Painsville and Chagrin Falls. Now these comparisons may be antecdotal but I would guess that most in Cleveland would look at Akron as a suburb. 

 

Ultimately I'm rooting for Cleveland as it's a great city, I just think it is and can be great without ignoring Akron's own independence and trying to adopt it as a suburb. 

4 hours ago, bumsquare said:

I’m glad the census happens so infrequently that we only need to have these pointless MSA discussions once every ten years 😏

 

They happen like every 6 months.  

Just now, jonoh81 said:

 

They happen like every 6 months.  

 

1 minute ago, bumsquare said:

 

 

See also: Cin-Day

5 hours ago, dwhershberger said:

Summit county was never part of Cleveland's MSA. It is, however, part of the Cleveland-Akron-Canton CSA (Combined Statistical Area).  Cleveland MSA consists of Lorain, Cuyahoga, Medina, Lake and Geauga counties. 

Census tracts such as MSAs and CSAs are not determined by local officials, but by the United States Office of Management and Budget. 

Before 2003, Cleveland and Akron were in the same “metro area”. I can’t remember if it was MSA, CMSA or PMSA. All I know is that Cleveland’s listed metro population was around 2.8 million. After 2003, it down to 2.2 million because Akron was removed. 
 

I’m pretty sure that most posters on here know that the makeup of these CSAs/MSAs/Micros are determined by the OMB. But apparently you don’t realize that local officials do have their sayso. In other words, Cleveland and Akron will not merged into a single MSA without the blessing of Akron officials. So yes, there are politics involved.

1 hour ago, pontiac51 said:

Before 2003, Cleveland and Akron were in the same “metro area”. I can’t remember if it was MSA, CMSA or PMSA. All I know is that Cleveland’s listed metro population was around 2.8 million. After 2003, it down to 2.2 million because Akron was removed. 
 

I’m pretty sure that most posters on here know that the makeup of these CSAs/MSAs/Micros are determined by the OMB. But apparently you don’t realize that local officials do have their sayso. In other words, Cleveland and Akron will not merged into a single MSA without the blessing of Akron officials. So yes, there are politics involved.

I can't find anything online that points to Akron being dropped from Cleveland's MSA in 2003.  What I did find is  they were a CSA that did not include Canton(Stark) and some of the outlying counties until 2012.  https://www2.census.gov/geo/maps/econ/ec2012/csa/EC2012_330M200US184M.pdf

Unlike Akron, Lake County clearly understands that it is part of Cleveland and it's economy is tied to Cleveland. I've seen this ad around as it tries to get people back to the area:

 

Edited May 7, 20214 yr by Pugu

3 hours ago, westakron1 said:

The Big difference is that Akron and Canton have 1. Always been aligned more from a cutural stand point and 2. See each other as peers. People in Akron don't see Canton as being suburb or little brother.  On this very thread (and on other websites) I've seen Cleveland boosters compare Akron to cities like Lorain, Elyria, Painsville and Chagrin Falls. Now these comparisons may be antecdotal but I would guess that most in Cleveland would look at Akron as a suburb. 

 

Ultimately I'm rooting for Cleveland as it's a great city, I just think it is and can be great without ignoring Akron's own independence and trying to adopt it as a suburb. 

 

I don't see Akron as a suburb of CLE. Its a city in its own right---with a separate settlement history. But that doesn't mean that its economy and residents are not directly tied to Cleveland, which they are.

^ Everywhere in Ohio is just a suburb of Cleveland

 

12 minutes ago, Pugu said:

 

I don't see Akron as a suburb of CLE. Its a city in its own right---with a separate settlement history. But that doesn't mean that its economy and residents are not directly tied to Cleveland, which they are.

I don't think anyone considers Akron as a Cleveland suburb.  The problem is that the Cleveland and Akron metro areas overlap, so the metro population numbers are a bit inaccurate based on the method they are using.

 

Edited May 7, 20214 yr by skiwest

33 minutes ago, skiwest said:

I don't think anyone considers Akron as a Cleveland suburb.  The problem is that the Cleveland and Akron metro areas overlap, so the metro population numbers are a bit inaccurate based on the method they are using.

 

 

...which is why they are a CSA.  Clearly Cleveland and Akron are separate metropolitan areas but due to that overlap in northern Summit County and I'm sure other edge counties, that's why they have Combined into a Statistical Area.  Thus, everyone gets what they want; Akron and Cleveland are still their own separate metros with their own suburbs, independent economic juice, etc but in a regional sense, they overlap at their edges and thus the CSA.

 

48 minutes ago, Pugu said:

mean that its economy and residents are not directly tied to Cleveland

 

Akron is not directly tied economically to Cleveland.  They can share things (media market, Blossom, etc) but Akron is its own separate, functional city/metro.  It has its own airport (with Canton), its own Fortune 500, its own "bag" (as the kids say).  And the residents are certainly not directly tied; I know many in Akron who haven't been to Cleveland in years (and I'm sure vice-versa as well).