4 hours ago, X said:

Not buying it.  Of course old brick and wood frame houses require lots of maintenance- they're old.  Let's see how these vinyl sided monstrosities in Avon are holding up in 100+ years.  I've been in a bunch of homes built in the last 30 years and they are nearly all trash.

I just had an insurance claim due to a weather event.   The insurance adjuster told me that if my 110 year old house would have been a new build Ryan Home, the damage would have been 5x as bad.  

 

 

I did one of @KJP's favorite pastimes on my walks this week, Monday - today, and tracked out of state license plates in my neighborhood. 

 

My walks were all between Bridge and Detroit, spanning from W. 58th as the furthest west street, to W. 28th as the furthest east. I didn't hit every street, but I covered a lot. 

 

By State:

• California - 4
• Colorado - 2
• Connecticut - 2
• Illinois - 11 
• New York - 21 
• Pennsylvania - 6 
• North Carolina - 1
• Michigan - 3
• Massachusetts - 3
• Indiana - 5
• Florida - 9 
• Virginia - 1
• Georgia - 1

I notice them but don't track them. Still, that seems like a lot of out-of-state plates. Over what time period? 

4 hours ago, Cleburger said:

I just had an insurance claim due to a weather event.   The insurance adjuster told me that if my 110 year old house would have been a new build Ryan Home, the damage would have been 5x as bad.  

 

 

 I really believe this to be survivorship bias. The cheap poorly built houses from 110 years ago, which were the majority of housing back then, did not survive to today where we would have witnessed their failure. They failed decades prior.

13 hours ago, TotalTransit said:

 I really believe this to be survivorship bias. The cheap poorly built houses from 110 years ago, which were the majority of housing back then, did not survive to today where we would have witnessed their failure. They failed decades prior.

 

A 10 year old home will fail for the same reason as a 110 year old home. They just deteriorate sometimes for different reasons but the number one culprit is water (and moisture) intrusion. But at the end of the day, market values generally dictate what homes survive and fall. There is little incentive for anyone to restore houses in the Kinsman neighborhood so as that housing stock ages out and becomes abandoned, it stands that those structures will be razed. Eventually, new housing stock built to that period and to what the market will support.

14 hours ago, TotalTransit said:

 I really believe this to be survivorship bias. The cheap poorly built houses from 110 years ago, which were the majority of housing back then, did not survive to today where we would have witnessed their failure. They failed decades prior.

 

This is right. 100 years ago my neighborhood was a mix of beautiful, big brick row houses and flimsy shotgun shacks. Guess which ones survived?

18 hours ago, KJP said:

I notice them but don't track them. Still, that seems like a lot of out-of-state plates. Over what time period? 

 

It was only this week. I walk the dog twice a day. 

13 minutes ago, DEPACincy said:

This is right. 100 years ago my neighborhood was a mix of beautiful, big brick row houses and flimsy shotgun shacks. Guess which ones survived?

 

Well, cheap houses are cheap houses regardless if they are 100 years old or 10 years old, whether they are stick shotgun shacks in Louisville KY or brick townhomes in Baltimore. Many were speculative or company housing and were not the best of construction quality for their time. What we often perceive as "quality" is really our aesthetic preference.

Thanks, guys. Now I have Once in a Lifetime stuck in my head.

20 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

 

It was only this week. I walk the dog twice a day. 

 

Interesting how many NYers you saw. Did Key buy another bank in NY state??

Key Bank has been making inroads in New York state and are one of the few banks still building physical branches with actual tellers. They are building one in Ithaca right now.

32 minutes ago, KJP said:

 

Interesting how many NYers you saw. Did Key buy another bank in NY state??

 

I think people in WNY, to a smaller extent, view Cleveland the way Clevelanders view Chicago. I know several Clevelanders that moved to Chicago (some have since returned) post-grad, and I know several people from Greater Buffalo that moved here post-grad. 

30 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

 

I think people in WNY, to a smaller extent, view Cleveland the way Clevelanders view Chicago. I know several Clevelanders that moved to Chicago (some have since returned) post-grad, and I know several people from Greater Buffalo that moved here post-grad. 

 

I'm a WNY native and whenever I'm driving back after a holiday I swear 3/4 cars driving west have Ohio plates. I know a handful of people from my small HS that now live in Ohio. I know personal observation doesn't represent a trend but it always is interesting seeing it.

36 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

 

I think people in WNY, to a smaller extent, view Cleveland the way Clevelanders view Chicago. I know several Clevelanders that moved to Chicago (some have since returned) post-grad, and I know several people from Greater Buffalo that moved here post-grad. 

Judging by the number of Bills Mafia license plates frames and flags in my neighborhood (my wife included) I would say this is accurate.  

 

I do know from being up in Buffalo that Cleveland State was running billboards and other ad campaigns up there to convince young folks to come to Cleveland.  

4 minutes ago, Cleburger said:

Judging by the number of Bills Mafia license plates frames and flags in my neighborhood (my wife included) I would say this is accurate.  

 

I do know from being up in Buffalo that Cleveland State was running billboards and other ad campaigns up there to convince young folks to come to Cleveland.  

Those ads are just awful.

 

 

The ads we need to be running in other states is "We believe in housing our residents."

 

 

Cleveland State is pulling A LOT of people from Buff. Coming from a graduate of CSU. I had a lot of WNY friends in college

1 hour ago, YO to the CLE said:

Cleveland State is pulling A LOT of people from Buff. Coming from a graduate of CSU. I had a lot of WNY friends in college

Do they offer in-state tuition rates to people from Buffalo as an enticement?

Do they offer in-state tuition rates to people from Buffalo as an enticement?

Speaking of which.


In state tuition is dummy expensive in Ohio.

I paid half the amount in Florida.

47 minutes ago, freefourur said:

Do they offer in-state tuition rates to people from Buffalo as an enticement?

I believe I remember seeing that on a billboard up in BUF

On 9/15/2022 at 11:26 AM, bumsquare said:

Tremont is exhibit A. Arguably the worst stock in the city but nearly completely intact. And I’m not sure Cleveland needs any more encouragement in destroying its historic housing. I understand what the article is saying about limiting multi family development, but again I don’t think that’s an issue in Cleveland.  I think we have one current instance of NIMBYs blocking development on W 73rd and people are extrapolating that into a city-wide problem. 

 

This is how it always starts.  Almost every city with a NIMBY problem went through the same process.

 

One neighborhood sees success and they begin to block housing to secure the success all to themselves but very few care because they are blocking housing in just one location.

 

Then another neighborhood, and then another, and then another, until its the entire city.

 

Every city that has experienced renewed success is seeing this. Which is essentially every city that experienced white flight. We thought it would never happen to rust belt cities but here we are. 

 

Pittsburgh went first, then Cincinnati last year. 

 

Cleveland and Detroit are up next if a pro housing voice doesn't show up. 

 

1 hour ago, TotalTransit said:

 

This is how it always starts.  Almost every city with a NIMBY problem went through the same process.

 

One neighborhood sees success and they begin to block housing to secure the success all to themselves but very few care because they are blocking housing in just one location.

 

Then another neighborhood, and then another, and then another, until its the entire city.

 

Every city that has experienced renewed success is seeing this. Which is essentially every city that experienced white flight. We thought it would never happen to rust belt cities but here we are. 

 

Pittsburgh went first, then Cincinnati last year. 

 

Cleveland and Detroit are up next if a pro housing voice doesn't show up. 

 

That’s just obviously not true. New apartment housing is going up all over the country. There aren’t any “entire cities” closed to new housing development. I lived in Austin for 3 years. It’s been just about the hottest growth market in the country for the better part of three decades and there are dozens of apartment buildings being built at any given time. 
 

I’m sure there are some specific neighborhoods in some cities that have effectively stopped new development. And I think we all know there is a housing shortage. But the factors can’t all be traced back to NIMBYism. 
 

 

That’s just obviously not true. New apartment housing is going up all over the country. There aren’t any “entire cities” closed to new housing development. I lived in Austin for 3 years. It’s been just about the hottest growth market in the country for the better part of three decades and there are dozens of apartment buildings being built at any given time. 
 
I’m sure there are some specific neighborhoods in some cities that have effectively stopped new development. And I think we all know there is a housing shortage. But the factors can’t all be traced back to NIMBYism. 
 
 

I think this is a misinterpretation of my comment.


San Francisco is in the Top 15 cities for new development.


But it is also the NIMBY capital of the country.



You don’t need to stop all development to be absolutely encumbered by NIMBYism.


E: Pardon, it was 18, but Los Angeles, another NIMBY strong hold is at 10.

My comment is meant to be interpreted not that NIMBYs block all housing, but that they reduce supply to damaging results.

On 9/16/2022 at 4:00 PM, bumsquare said:

That’s just obviously not true. New apartment housing is going up all over the country. There aren’t any “entire cities” closed to new housing development. I lived in Austin for 3 years. It’s been just about the hottest growth market in the country for the better part of three decades and there are dozens of apartment buildings being built at any given time. 
 

I’m sure there are some specific neighborhoods in some cities that have effectively stopped new development. And I think we all know there is a housing shortage. But the factors can’t all be traced back to NIMBYism. 
 

 

 

Looks like Austin is struggling heavy with NIMBYS despite putting up record housing numbers. 

 

 

https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/austin-affordable-housing-nimby/

 

A recent neighborhood fight demonstrates how the outsized influence of existing homeowners restricts supply in a city that badly needs 135,000 new homes.

Edited September 20, 20222 yr by TotalTransit

^ well, what a problem to have ... !

Anybody else still playing the license plate game? In spite of high interest rates and all the challenges in the world, I feel like I'm seeing more California plates now than ever. Obviously they're from lots of states, but especially California. And the pace of home renovations in Cleveland Heights is still unprecedented. Basically every street has at least a couple dilapidated and vacant houses that are newly redone or in the process of a redo.

2 hours ago, LlamaLawyer said:

Anybody else still playing the license plate game? In spite of high interest rates and all the challenges in the world, I feel like I'm seeing more California plates now than ever. Obviously they're from lots of states, but especially California. And the pace of home renovations in Cleveland Heights is still unprecedented. Basically every street has at least a couple dilapidated and vacant houses that are newly redone or in the process of a redo.

I was on a flight back from LA to Cleveland this week for work and the person next to me said that they were moving to Cleveland because of the lower cost of living.

4 hours ago, LlamaLawyer said:

Anybody else still playing the license plate game? In spite of high interest rates and all the challenges in the world, I feel like I'm seeing more California plates now than ever. Obviously they're from lots of states, but especially California. And the pace of home renovations in Cleveland Heights is still unprecedented. Basically every street has at least a couple dilapidated and vacant houses that are newly redone or in the process of a redo.

I’ve been seeing a lot of ‘out west’ in general downtown. Colorado, New Mexico and Utah especially these last few months. 

3 hours ago, roman totale XVII said:

I’ve been seeing a lot of ‘out west’ in general downtown. Colorado, New Mexico and Utah especially these last few months. 

 

Climate refugees?

9 hours ago, KJP said:

 

Climate refugees?

I've seen a lot of out west plates too. I think "climate refugee" is a little too strong of a term for anyone moving to a different part of the U.S. There aren't really parts of the U.S. that used to be inhabitable but aren't right now. The water crisis is probably only beginning. It'll be here in a much more powerful way in a decade unless rainfall trends reverse drastically. While there are lots of water restrictions, I don't think someone leaving California because of lawn watering bans can really be considered a "refugee." So the people coming here from out west, if climate is really their reason for moving, are doing it to avoid becoming climate refugees, not because they were actually forced out of their homes.

1 hour ago, LlamaLawyer said:

I've seen a lot of out west plates too. I think "climate refugee" is a little too strong of a term for anyone moving to a different part of the U.S. There aren't really parts of the U.S. that used to be inhabitable but aren't right now. The water crisis is probably only beginning. It'll be here in a much more powerful way in a decade unless rainfall trends reverse drastically. While there are lots of water restrictions, I don't think someone leaving California because of lawn watering bans can really be considered a "refugee." So the people coming here from out west, if climate is really their reason for moving, are doing it to avoid becoming climate refugees, not because they were actually forced out of their homes.

More like cost of living refugees at this point. 

22 minutes ago, KFM44107 said:

More like cost of living refugees at this point. 

 

With jobs that are so firmly WFH that the HQ can be hundreds of miles away.

1 hour ago, LlamaLawyer said:

I've seen a lot of out west plates too. I think "climate refugee" is a little too strong of a term for anyone moving to a different part of the U.S. There aren't really parts of the U.S. that used to be inhabitable but aren't right now. The water crisis is probably only beginning. It'll be here in a much more powerful way in a decade unless rainfall trends reverse drastically. While there are lots of water restrictions, I don't think someone leaving California because of lawn watering bans can really be considered a "refugee." So the people coming here from out west, if climate is really their reason for moving, are doing it to avoid becoming climate refugees, not because they were actually forced out of their homes.

Wildfires could certainly force people out of their homes.  Coastal flooding/rising sea level as well, though that seems to be impacting the east coast more at the moment.

2 hours ago, acd said:

Wildfires could certainly force people out of their homes.  Coastal flooding/rising sea level as well, though that seems to be impacting the east coast more at the moment.

 

I could imagine that wildfire north of Denver last year made an impression on people in cities all over the West. They all are living through a drought, and frequent high winds. Couple that with limited water there, and low housing prices here, Cleveland looks very attractive. 

Unfortunately there is still outbound movement too. I just bought an old (1908) Lakewood house. The owners (young couple with 2 kids) are moving to Phoenix. What's driving the move? The weather they said. 

^I wonder if they were originally from Cleveland… we all complain about the weather and the last few years have been kinda weird here too. It was April 2019 or April 2020 where we had the most rain during the month on record- it rained everyday except for maybe three during the month.  
 

I can understand living with our weather and just wanting something different; but I feel that anyone who chooses to move to the desert isn’t really thinking long-term. Seriously.

 

I guess time will tell.

Most of the time “the weather” is just shorthand for “reasons that I either can’t be bothered to explain to you, or I’m too embarrassed to admit to”. 

1 hour ago, Oldmanladyluck said:

I can understand living with our weather and just wanting something different; but I feel that anyone who chooses to move to the desert isn’t really thinking long-term. Seriously.

 

Right. I know the rate of cloudy days gets to people, but that doesn't mean you should want to be shot directly into the sun.  

if a true trend this will help -- wfh is falling off:

 

 

 

Chart: Remote work is disappearing as more people return to the office

Less than 10 percent reported working remotely in April, down from more than 35 percent near the start of the pandemic.

 

May 12, 2022, 2:01 PM EDT

By Joe Murphy

 

New data shows the share of people working from home due to Covid-19 dipped below 10 percent for the first time in more than two years.

Just 7.7 percent of those employed reported working remotely in April, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics survey published this month. That’s down from a pandemic-high of 35 percent recorded in May 2020. This figure doesn’t include working remotely for reasons unrelated to the pandemic, and includes people who worked remotely for pay at any point in the four weeks leading up to the survey.

 

 

more:

https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/data-remote-workers-declining-may-2022-rcna28499

12 hours ago, surfohio said:

 

Right. I know the rate of cloudy days gets to people, but that doesn't mean you should want to be shot directly into the sun.  

 

I would rather live in Cleveland than Phoenix because it's a cooler city in my opinion. But I'd much rather have Phoenix weather. Heat doesn't bother me. Cold and cloudy makes me depressed. 

7 minutes ago, DEPACincy said:

But I'd much rather have Phoenix weather. Heat doesn't bother me. Cold and cloudy makes me depressed. 

100+ degrees for half the year would make me depressed.

15 hours ago, cadmen said:

Unfortunately there is still outbound movement too. I just bought an old (1908) Lakewood house. The owners (young couple with 2 kids) are moving to Phoenix. What's driving the move? The weather they said. 

 

Some people really need to see/feel the sun. The lack of it actually depresses them -- Seasonal Affective Disorder. Clouds are the default for me. I'm of Irish/Scottish descent so I have to be very careful in the summer to remember my hat and to not spend too much time in the sun or I will burst into flames.

 

So yesterday on Twitter there was a big conversation among people from mostly out west considering relocating to the Great Lakes region. So of course I suggested Cleveland as the place to go and why. Got a few folks interested including a couple from Seattle who said they couldn't afford to live there anymore. He wrote.....

 

Me, my partner and our 2yo live in my in-laws basement in a Seattle suburb as our salaries never caught up to the market here and now interest rates. We have a down payment saved up that would be enough to buy a house in many great lakes cities and I honestly think about it.

1 hour ago, DEPACincy said:

 

I would rather live in Cleveland than Phoenix because it's a cooler city in my opinion. But I'd much rather have Phoenix weather. Heat doesn't bother me. Cold and cloudy makes me depressed. 

LOL. Remember, "it's a dry heat."

Except for several years living overseas I've been a Clevelander all of my life. This is my town and I have no plans on leaving. That being said our weather is "complicated." Recently we had a few days of extremely misty, cloudy weather. I loved it. I loved the contrast with the warm sunny days just a week earlier. I LOVE snow. That being said, sometime around March I start to bitch about the long winter. April used to be nice here. Now it seems pretty grey and cold. I guess in a perfect world I would keep most of our varied weather but replace some of those cold, damp and cloudy days with a few more weeks of warm and sunny days.

 

If current climate changes continue I think in a few decades Cleveland (and the entire Great Lakes region) will be the beneficiary of a pretty large mass movement away from the hot, harsh and increasingly water deprived Southwest. Right now we are just hanging on to our population. We're in sort of a holding pattern. But time (and climate change) is on our side. I won't be on the planet to see it but I take some solace I knowing that later in this century this part of the country is going to be "hot" again. And we'll be cool too. Slava Cleveland!

One difference, Cleveland vs. Columbus/Cincinnati, potentially affecting business and personal relocation decisions:

Per Wikipedia:

 

Average seasonal snow accumulation in inches

    CVG 23

    CMH 28

    CLE 64

    Chardon 107 (highest in area).

 

Average number of snowy days

    CVG 22

    CMH 28

    CLE 46

    Chardon N/A  

 

The cold and lack of sunny days are very hard. Perhaps cozy if you have a family and friends, but isolating and demotivating if you don't.

 

And who wants to go to work when it's pitch black and come home when it's getting dark for multiple months. It's just a sh*tty deal. The desert sucks, but I get the draw.

 

42 minutes ago, urb-a-saurus said:

One difference, Cleveland vs. Columbus/Cincinnati, potentially affecting business and personal relocation decisions:

Per Wikipedia:

 

Average seasonal snow accumulation in inches

    CVG 23

    CMH 28

    CLE 64

    Chardon 107 (highest in area).

 

Average number of snowy days

    CVG 22

    CMH 28

    CLE 46

    Chardon N/A  

 

Lake Erie can be a blessing or a curse, depending on the season.

45 minutes ago, TBideon said:

The cold and lack of sunny days are very hard. Perhaps cozy if you have a family and friends, but isolating and demotivating if you don't.

 

And who wants to go to work when it's pitch black and come home when it's getting dark for multiple months. It's just a sh*tty deal. The desert sucks, but I get the draw.

 

 

Not me. I don't notice what time the sun comes up. But I do like it dark at 6 p.m. and all the traffic and activity at "night." I love fog, snow, clouds, etc. But I also like a sunny day in February and March. It's a nice tease of the summer to come. But I hate August for its hot, muggy days. I spend all my time in the air-conditioned indoors. I hate sweating. To me, Cleveland's best season is fall. I think it's absolutely beautiful which is followed by the festive holiday season. If I ever had to move away for reasons not of my choosing, I would want to visit at that time of the year just to experience it again.

 

BTW, our winters nowadays are nothing. When I was a kid in the 1970s, we spent multiple days if not solid weeks at home from school/work because of snowstorms or extreme cold. And I have pictures of me at Halloween showing all of the trees in the background already devoid of leaves. Now that's typically two weeks later. And many of the shrubs around here are still green. I've seen them keep their green leaves into December in recent years. We rarely get big snows in November any more (might get one this weekend!). And real winter doesn't usually arrive until after the holidays anymore. Yes, the springs are getting very cold and wet in recent years but that seems to give us some very green Mays and Junes.

 

So after suggesting to that dude in Seattle that he should move to Lakewood, I went on Zillow to see how the housing prices are faring in this real estate slowdown. OH MY GOD. I can't believe that real estate prices are actually higher than what I saw 6-12 months ago and, of course, compared to a decade ago. I recall writing something on this board maybe five years ago that it surprised me how many houses/condos in Cleveland and Lakewood were selling for $200,000 and up. Now, it's hard to find a decent house listed for less than $200,000 north of I-90 in Lakewood or Cleveland. I realize that's a listing and not a sale, but the starting point for negotiations now is commonly $300,000 to $400,000. And there are several on Cleveland's near-West Side listed for $1 million or just under it. Are we going to be looking at these prices in another five years from now and be amazed at how few of Cleveland's are listing for under $500,000? I assume demand is driving it. And I continue to see to more western license plates around here. A family at my son's school has a Washington state plate on their car and there are Colorado and California plates in my neighborhood.

On 11/11/2022 at 7:33 PM, MikeyB440 said:

I was on a flight back from LA to Cleveland this week for work and the person next to me said that they were moving to Cleveland because of the lower cost of living.

I had an Uber driver pick me up the other day with Ohio (Cuyahoga) plates. He had an obvious NY accent. He said that he moved from Brooklyn to Cleveland and he knows many people that have relocated from NY to Cleveland for the low cost of living.

 

I had the same experience when I was in Cleveland this past summer with another Uber driver from NY that said the same thing.

Have the numbers finally turned positive?

 

 

Baiju R. Shah on Twitter: "Greater Cleveland continues to grow. Not new news, just a reminder. Data below from @Redfin for the last 3 months. @GCPartnership @JobsOhio @TeamNEO @TheCLE @cleveleads @EngageCleveland @GlobalCleveland https://t.co/5X6HxAbzmM" / Twitter

8 hours ago, Dougal said:

Have the numbers finally turned positive?

 

 

Baiju R. Shah on Twitter: "Greater Cleveland continues to grow. Not new news, just a reminder. Data below from @Redfin for the last 3 months. @GCPartnership @JobsOhio @TeamNEO @TheCLE @cleveleads @EngageCleveland @GlobalCleveland https://t.co/5X6HxAbzmM" / Twitter

The Cleveland MSA grew slowly between 2010 and 2020 according to the 2020 census. Cuyahoga county and Cleveland proper lost population.