13 hours ago, LlamaLawyer said:

In Cleveland Heights / University Heights / Shaker Heights / Beachwood I have noticed a very dramatic uptick in traffic over the past few months. 
 

Any ideas what this relates to? Possible population influx or WFH ending? Something else?

The fact that it's summer and people are taking Cedar or Green to get to Legacy village

well ne ohio is selling like gangbusters per my cleveland major RE friend -- and in fact supply has tightened this summer per her july/aug report. 

It's always fun going on redfin and seeing how SFH/multi-unit/townhomes are selling. I keep close tabs on Euclid (61 sales in the last month), South Euclid (38) and University Heights (24) in particular.

 

For some reason those three I root for most of all.

Why Cleveland’s metro area just grew by 97,000 residents

 

 

CLEVELAND, Ohio - Cleveland’s metro area now officially includes Ashtabula County.

The federal government in July updated the nation’s metropolitan statistical areas and the larger combined statistical areas for several regions, including some changes for Northeast Ohio.

 

 

https://www.cleveland.com/news/2023/09/why-clevelands-metro-area-just-grew-by-97000-residents.html

of course summit is a bloodbath, but there is the eternal battle of portage county for its soul.  😂

 

i would bet cle gets it in the msa next time.

 

i would also bet erie county gets pulled into msa someday.

 

dam near everyone in and around vermilion works in cuyahoga county --- the rest huron, sandusky, milan is a stretch though.

 

holmes and ashland should definitely jump up to csa soon too.

 

although if they measure via commuting, by horse and buggy may be an interesting count. 👍🤷‍♂️🐴

Omni Systems of Mayfield Village says they carefully considered how to expand and decided not to build another facility in the area because "Cleveland is shrinking."  So, instead, they are acquiring a company in St Charles, MO, part of shrinking Greater St. Louis.

 

https://www.bizjournals.com/cleveland/news/2023/12/04/onmi-systems-ask-questions-before-acquisitions.html?cx_testId=40&cx_testVariant=cx_24&cx_artPos=0#cxrecs_s

Yeah, that's idiotic.  Metro St. Louis dropped by −0.67% and was dying even before COVID.  Strange comment.

We can’t have more legal immigration because we don’t have enough jobs and we can’t have more jobs because we don’t have enough immigration. 

On 6/8/2023 at 4:15 PM, mrnyc said:

aaaand let my old friend eileen going back to college and who has one of cle’s top realtor groups tell you herself how well the local cle market is doing — her smile sez it all:

 

Anyone who is a friend of Eileen is a friend of mine!

 

On 6/8/2023 at 1:34 PM, cadmen said:

Do we really have a glut of vacant homes that are move in ready or do we have vacant homes that are closer to being torn down rather than salvageable?

Something in between.  We have a glut of smaller homes that need major renovation but aren't yet candidates for a teardown.  Many are livable, but not very nice.  It takes money to maintain a house, and too much money has fled the center city.  It would be fiscally smart for society to find a way to better incentivize rehabs or to put more money into the CDCs to do rehabs -- the infrastructure is already there.  The cost to renovate to really nice condition isn't justified by the cost, so many will continue to deteriorate and will be teardowns in another decade or two unless something changes. 

4 hours ago, Foraker said:

Anyone who is a friend of Eileen is a friend of mine!

 

 

oh well nice — you’ll have to hit me up off line how you know my dear eileen!

Redirected from the Sherwin-Williams HQ thread...

 

The jobs are there to fill but we're not growing fast enough to fill them. Our inventory of quality, available housing is very small. The number of occupied housing units in Cleveland is growing even  though Cleveland is still losing population because low-income families are being replaced young professional singles or couples. We need to incentivize the construction of quality, affordable housing. Look at our unemployment data...

 

https://neo-trans.blog/2023/12/26/lowest-unemployment-rate-in-23-years/

 

Cleveland needs to get their school system in order. I hate to say it, but no family is going to stay in the city if they can move to a better school district. I’m not sure how that looks, but it’s one of the barriers of why my family are out in the burbs.

I agree about schools. I think KJP's point about affordable, high-quality housing is critical. This article from Crain's last week was an eye-opener. There is demand for new builds here... but the cost to produce them is as expensive as in other parts of the country where they sell for much higher prices. So, developers are turning their attention elsewhere to make better returns. The author doesn't clarify why, but my guess is it's so expensive to build here because we don't have enough workers.

 

This to me sounds like a market failure the government needs to help address. Can the government help subsidize trade training? Can we get more government money to help cover housing construction/renovation costs? It seems to me investments like that would pay off.

 

 

 

Edited February 18, 20241 yr by coneflower

54 minutes ago, coneflower said:

I agree about schools. I think KJP's point about affordable, high-quality housing is critical. This article from Crain's last week was an eye-opener. There is demand for new builds here... but the cost to produce them is as expensive as in other parts of the country where they sell for much higher prices. So, developers are turning their attention elsewhere to make better returns. The author doesn't clarify why, but my guess is it's so expensive to build here because we don't have enough workers.

 

This to me sounds like a market failure the government needs to help address. Can the government help subsidize trade training? Can we get more government money to help cover housing construction/renovation costs? It seems to me investments like that would pay off.

Construction everywhere is constrained by workers. The big real estate developers are going to build where they can get the highest prices at volume.   A few million-dollar houses can be sold here, but not many.

 

Government subsidies (scholarships!) for essential workers are overdue.  The government forecasts won't always be perfect, but the looming retirement boom in the skilled trades is an obvious target. 

 

School performance on standardized tests reflects family income.  If that is your standard for what makes a good school (the state "report cards" rely heavily on standard tests), live in a wealthier district.  There are a lot of different opinions on how to improve schools, and there is not a lot of agreement or evidence of what works in the long term -- see the discussion in the forums on schools, such as https://urbanohio.com/topic/17169-the-american-education-system-policy-and-reform

 

5 hours ago, JB said:

Cleveland needs to get their school system in order. I hate to say it, but no family is going to stay in the city if they can move to a better school district. I’m not sure how that looks, but it’s one of the barriers of why my family are out in the burbs.

 

That was true when city schools were the only options. But that hasn't been true for a long time. Lorain Avenue in Ohio City, for example, is a traffic jam at 7-8 am with all the suburban cars bringing their kids to school in Cleveland -- St. Ignatius High School, Urban Community School, Menlo Park Academy and others. I'm one of the suburban families bringing my kid to a school in Cleveland. 

1 hour ago, KJP said:

 

That was true when city schools were the only options. But that hasn't been true for a long time. Lorain Avenue in Ohio City, for example, is a traffic jam at 7-8 am with all the suburban cars bringing their kids to school in Cleveland -- St. Ignatius High School, Urban Community School, Menlo Park Academy and others. I'm one of the suburban families bringing my kid to a school in Cleveland. 

I know you said your kid goes to one, but are they on a scholarship? Not sure if we could afford something like Iggy. 

9 hours ago, JB said:

Cleveland needs to get their school system in order. I hate to say it, but no family is going to stay in the city if they can move to a better school district. I’m not sure how that looks, but it’s one of the barriers of why my family are out in the burbs.

You're not wrong but this is an issue in just about every large American city, not just Cleveland. Unfortunately urban America is often not practical for middle class families. 

5 hours ago, JB said:

I know you said your kid goes to one, but are they on a scholarship? Not sure if we could afford something like Iggy. 

 

My son goes to Menlo Park (K-8). It's a gifted school and had to test in, but I don't think they're very restrictive based on how some of the kids perform there. We pay something like $100 for supplies and Lakewood schools pays us $600 because we don't use what few school buses they have to take our son to/from school. 

 

15 hours ago, JB said:

I know you said your kid goes to one, but are they on a scholarship? Not sure if we could afford something like Iggy. 

The state also gives you $8,500 per child per year to send your kid to private school.  This is non income based and the only requirement is that you live within the City of Cleveland. There are many public and private options within the city that consistently rank as well or higher than suburban schools.  However many people don't realize this because as with everything in Cleveland there is a negative perception problem.

9 minutes ago, TDi said:

 

The state also gives you $8,500 per child per year to send your kid to private school.  This is non income based and the only requirement is that you live within the City of Cleveland. There are many public and private options within the city that consistently rank as well or higher than suburban schools.  However many people don't realize this because as with everything in Cleveland there is a negative perception problem.

I honestly didn’t even know that was a thing.

41 minutes ago, JB said:

I honestly didn’t even know that was a thing.

Didn’t know that either, there does seem to be some income limits and also seemingly up to the schools to accept or not 

 

“Students from families at or below 450% of the federal poverty level receive a full voucher, while students in higher income brackets receive progressively reduced voucher amounts. Participating private schools are required to accept the voucher as full tuition for students whose families are at or below 200 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL). “

6 minutes ago, BoomerangCleRes said:

Didn’t know that either, there does seem to be some income limits and also seemingly up to the schools to accept or not 

 

“Students from families at or below 450% of the federal poverty level receive a full voucher, while students in higher income brackets receive progressively reduced voucher amounts. Participating private schools are required to accept the voucher as full tuition for students whose families are at or below 200 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL). “

What you are quoting is from Ed Choice which is another option you can use but is income based.  The Cleveland Scholarship is what I was referring to. 

11 hours ago, KJP said:

 

My son goes to Menlo Park (K-8). It's a gifted school and had to test in, but I don't think they're very restrictive based on how some of the kids perform there. We pay something like $100 for supplies and Lakewood schools pays us $600 because we don't use what few school buses they have to take our son to/from school. 

I think Menlo's students are technically counted as part of Cleveland Public Schools.

 

Broader issue--Is there any city with concentrated poverty and public schools that perform well? I can't think of one. Cleveland spends a significant amount per student, and I think the issue is not really "clean up the schools," but rather "end the concentration of poverty" and the schools get better as a result.

On 2/18/2024 at 6:23 PM, JB said:

I know you said your kid goes to one, but are they on a scholarship? Not sure if we could afford something like Iggy. 

 

Over 50% of SIHS students receive some form of financial aid.

From Ronayne: “30% of citizens @CuyahogaCounty will be age 60 over over by 2030.”

That seems like a massive challenge going forward. We desperately need more immigrants. 

 

 

^  Screened immigrants, yes.   Recent events have illustrated the problems with not screening.

 

 

I'd have to believe Ohio as a whole is tracking that way as we continue to lose young folks to the coasts.  

1 hour ago, E Rocc said:

^  Screened immigrants, yes.   Recent events have illustrated the problems with not screening.

 

 

At some point, even that's going to be a leisure. However we get here, someones have to be around. The average US family size has dropped 25% since 1960, while US lifespans have increased 11%. Middle class families just can't afford kids, certainly not multiple. And while Western Europe and Asia have more extreme rates, those regions also offer financial and health protections that MAGA and friends will fight to the bitter death to prevent our governments from mirroring.

 

I'd rather everyone come and stay legally, whatever that entails, but it's getting less a priority for me, especially as I see how many H1s local hospitals employ and still remain understaffed (just a personal example).

 

Jesus Christ Ahuja, you built a beautiful hospital and recent expansion, but forgot to hire people. I don't give a f if they snuck in from Mexico, El Salvador, or Mars, just hire RNs and technicians and PAs, and let them stay indefinitely if they contribute.

 

Edited March 1, 20241 yr by TBideon

1 hour ago, E Rocc said:

^  Screened immigrants, yes.   Recent events have illustrated the problems with not screening.

Immigrants improve American society, period. Immigrants, including undocumented immigrants, commit crimes at lower rates than people born here. Immigration is America’s super power and it is extremely unfortunate how many people don’t realize and appreciate that. 

On 2/19/2024 at 11:24 AM, LlamaLawyer said:

I think Menlo's students are technically counted as part of Cleveland Public Schools.

 

Broader issue--Is there any city with concentrated poverty and public schools that perform well? I can't think of one. Cleveland spends a significant amount per student, and I think the issue is not really "clean up the schools," but rather "end the concentration of poverty" and the schools get better as a result.

 

Depends on how you define well I think. Cincinnati Public Schools certainly has its issues but there are some very good schools, including public Montessori and foreign language schools that are coveted. And Walnut Hills High School, a public magnet, is consistently ranked as a top five school in the state and often ranked number one. 

Edited March 1, 20241 yr by DEPACincy

On 3/1/2024 at 7:02 AM, E Rocc said:

^  Screened immigrants, yes.   Recent events have illustrated the problems with not screening.

 

 

 

you’re in luck. the usa has always had the most immigration, in fact its like 20% or so of all world immigration. it could easily be much higher. lately the number of foreign born immigrating to the usa has increased, although not exactly, many are already living here and are just change of status, but anyway your uncle joe has clearly got on this and fixed the screening process:

 

In FY 2023, USCIS received 10.9 million filings and completed more than 10 million pending cases– both record-breaking numbers in the agency’s history. In doing so, USCIS reduced overall backlogs by 15%. Among USCIS’ record number of case completions in FY 2023, the agency administered the Oath of Allegiance to more than 878,500 new U.S. citizens, including 12,000 members of the military, effectively eliminating the backlog of naturalization applications . The median processing time for naturalization applicants decreased from 10.5 months to 6.1 months by the end of the fiscal year, achieving the agency’s longstanding goal and significantly reducing waiting times for most individuals seeking U.S. citizenship.

On 3/1/2024 at 7:02 AM, E Rocc said:

^  Screened immigrants, yes.   Recent events have illustrated the problems with not screening.

What "recent events" are you referring to?  Crime from immigrants, legal and illegal, is far lower than among natural US citizens.

https://www.cato.org/blog/new-research-illegal-immigration-crime-0

 

If you're worried about crime, we still need more immigrants.

It's crazy that rural America has signed on to the anti-immigration stances when they stand to benefit.   The migrants are essential to farm labor.   

 

And on the other end of the spectrum, visa granted to higher educated doctors etc often come with strings attached that they have to practice in a rural, under-served community.  (You'd be amazed at the great Indian restaurants out in the middle of nowhere that sprung up to feed Indian doctors and their families). 

 

Like most things MAGA, in the end they are voting against their own interest.  🤷‍♂️

Census bureau estimates are out!

 

Columbus and Cincy lead the way for growth again. Cleveland MSA static with a ~1700 person decrease. Big demographic issues for Cleveland is 3k negative natural decrease, so even though domestic migration was only -4K and international migration was larger leading to a positive migration number, the natural decrease led to overall decline. Not sure how to get out of that rut without substantial migration. This is even far more pronounced in Pittsburgh where the natural decrease is causing a demographic death spiral in the area.

44 minutes ago, bwheats said:

Census bureau estimates are out!

 

Columbus and Cincy lead the way for growth again. Cleveland MSA static with a ~1700 person decrease. Big demographic issues for Cleveland is 3k negative natural decrease, so even though domestic migration was only -4K and international migration was larger leading to a positive migration number, the natural decrease led to overall decline. Not sure how to get out of that rut without substantial migration. This is even far more pronounced in Pittsburgh where the natural decrease is causing a demographic death spiral in the area.

 

It's frustrating to read but not surprising. Despite all the good work that has been done, we (our regional leadership) need to be more aggressive to achieve "escape velocity" on stagnation. What are our policy priorities and where is government investment going--and are those things going to keep people here and attract new people? 

 

The thing I observe as an average resident is that Greater Cleveland has a lot of entrenched interests, many of which mean well, but they slow down momentum for change. In fact, most people don't want change or prefer to look backward. I'm not sure how you break through that but it's needed to drive positive growth here, imho. 

51 minutes ago, bwheats said:

Census bureau estimates are out!

 

Columbus and Cincy lead the way for growth again. Cleveland MSA static with a ~1700 person decrease. Big demographic issues for Cleveland is 3k negative natural decrease, so even though domestic migration was only -4K and international migration was larger leading to a positive migration number, the natural decrease led to overall decline. Not sure how to get out of that rut without substantial migration. This is even far more pronounced in Pittsburgh where the natural decrease is causing a demographic death spiral in the area.

Cuyahoga County's biggest issue is that it competes with itself. 58 different municipalities competing with each other to attract a (stagnent at best) population is and has been a recipe for disaster. Until we buy into true regionalism and combining municipalities to be a much more efficient region that competes for funding that solves another issue, housing and jobs. I believe this issue has to do with each other, not enough quality modern housing leads to people looking outside of the county for options and commuting to work from Summit, Lorain, Portage etc. I see it often at my job and I work for the County. 

The article on Cleveland.com is paywalled, the Enquirer has no mention of it, but Columbus Dispatch has a decent article on the changes:

 

https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/local/2024/03/14/columbus-ohio-state-population-growth-us-census-covid/72945989007/

8 minutes ago, coneflower said:

 

It's frustrating to read but not surprising. Despite all the good work that has been done, we (our regional leadership) need to be more aggressive to achieve "escape velocity" on stagnation. What are our policy priorities and where is government investment going--and are those things going to keep people here and attract new people? 

 

The thing I observe as an average resident is that Greater Cleveland has a lot of entrenched interests, many of which mean well, but they slow down momentum for change. In fact, most people don't want change or prefer to look backward. I'm not sure how you break through that but it's needed to drive positive growth here, imho. 

Honestly, I feel that listening to the residents like we have holds us back. They want the old Cleveland while the big counties are building to attract the modern resident and family. We need to create incentives that attracts the remote worker, the family that works in Cuyahoga but lives in Lorain County, we need to think outside the box. I believe Oklahoma City offers a $10,000 incentive to remote workers that move to the city, something like that can go a long way. 

TBH I'm not sure how much I even trust the annual population estimates anymore. They had the Cleveland MSA losing population year over year for a decade and then when the 2020 census came around it turned out we had actually gained a little population since 2010, and given how the 2020 census was handled I wouldn't be shocked if it was an undercount. Feels like the annual estimates, at least for the Cleveland MSA, are just based on a vibe someone in some government office has.

18 minutes ago, gpodawund said:

Feels like the annual estimates, at least for the Cleveland MSA, are just based on a vibe someone in some government office has.

 

The annual estimates are, in fact, estimates; and the Census Bureau tends to follow existing trends until some new hard data forces them to reconsider.  It's more than a vibe, but it is heavily influenced by the past.

 

In the larger cities the manual counts, on which the estimates are besed, are increasingly unreliable; the CB should give up individual canvassing and rely on other data sources.

The Bank of America has other insights suggesting that population growth is occurring.

 

https://neo-trans.blog/2023/06/08/bofa-theyre-coming-to-cleveland/

 

And while GDP is growing in Cuyahoga County (and not in its collar counties), the suggestion is that people increasingly live in collar counties but increasingly work in Cuyahoga County. Seems to me there's an opportunity here to reverse that, such as the Oklahoma City incentive @MyPhoneDead mentioned.

 

https://neo-trans.blog/2023/12/12/cuyahoga-countys-economy-surges/

Honest question here, it's not clear to me if this is a shortage of supply or increase of demand. The population estimates were for Cuyahoga County, not the city of Cleveland, but if Cleveland wasn't seeing population growth would we be seeing rent prices increasing at the rate they are? 

 

A 16% year-over-year increase when the national average was a 1% decrease. And only a percent behind Columbus (17% increase), that is seeing the fastest growth in Ohio. 

 

https://www.ideastream.org/health/2024-03-13/rising-rent-prices-in-cleveland-akron-markets-are-bucking-national-trends-new-data-say

1 hour ago, Luke_S said:

Honest question here, it's not clear to me if this is a shortage of supply or increase of demand. The population estimates were for Cuyahoga County, not the city of Cleveland, but if Cleveland wasn't seeing population growth would we be seeing rent prices increasing at the rate they are? 

 

A 16% year-over-year increase when the national average was a 1% decrease. And only a percent behind Columbus (17% increase), that is seeing the fastest growth in Ohio. 

 

https://www.ideastream.org/health/2024-03-13/rising-rent-prices-in-cleveland-akron-markets-are-bucking-national-trends-new-data-say

 

In short, yes. Very possible to see population loss and stagnating population. Smaller households means higher demand for housing with same population. It's a phenomenon you see in a lot of gentrifying neighborhoods. Also, if the people moving to Cleveland have more money than the people leaving (or dying) then that'll contribute to higher housing costs as well.

 

Cleveland's biggest problem is that the population is very old. The median age in the metro is 42. Compare that to 38 in Cincinnati, 37 in Columbus, and 36 in Austin. As long as that median age is so high, the natural increase (or decrease) part of the equation is going to be hard to overcome. 

Edited March 15, 20241 yr by DEPACincy

So.. I always take the census estimates with a grain of salt, as they’re historically not super accurate.

 

That being said, I do think it should be pointed out that the estimates for Cuyahoga County show a loss of 15k from 2020-2021; 10.5k from 2021-2022; and now only 3.5k from 2022-2023. So, if that’s a trend that’s real and continuing, the county will have growth in 2023-2024. And if the trend line continues, we could realistically have a 2030 population that exceeds the 2020 population. That’s just assuming trends continue.

 

27 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said:

So.. I always take the census estimates with a grain of salt, as they’re historically not super accurate.

 

That being said, I do think it should be pointed out that the estimates for Cuyahoga County show a loss of 15k from 2020-2021; 10.5k from 2021-2022; and now only 3.5k from 2022-2023. So, if that’s a trend that’s real and continuing, the county will have growth in 2023-2024. And if the trend line continues, we could realistically have a 2030 population that exceeds the 2020 population. That’s just assuming trends continue.

 

 

I don't think I'd be drawing trend lines and extrapolating from 2020, 2021, 2022 data.  There may have been something making those years a little unusual.

What about all the out-of-state license plates that were being spotted here during the pandemic - did they all go back to their home states?

7 minutes ago, LibertyBlvd said:

What about all the out-of-state license plates that were being spotted here during the pandemic - did they all go back to their home states?

I still see a fairly heavy presence, Tennessee and Canada seem to be the highest occurrences for the last couple months 

 

of the individuals I’ve talked to with out of state plates most were here for the clinic or case.

 

If you walk around new apartments and their parking lots you’ll see a fair amount  

Edited March 16, 20241 yr by BoomerangCleRes

20 minutes ago, LibertyBlvd said:

What about all the out-of-state license plates that were being spotted here during the pandemic - did they all go back to their home states?

 

If I'm reading the data presented above correctly, they're all dead.

On 3/1/2024 at 8:30 AM, TBideon said:

At some point, even that's going to be a leisure. However we get here, someones have to be around. The average US family size has dropped 25% since 1960, while US lifespans have increased 11%. Middle class families just can't afford kids, certainly not multiple. And while Western Europe and Asia have more extreme rates, those regions also offer financial and health protections that MAGA and friends will fight to the bitter death to prevent our governments from mirroring.

 

I'd rather everyone come and stay legally, whatever that entails, but it's getting less a priority for me, especially as I see how many H1s local hospitals employ and still remain understaffed (just a personal example).

 

Jesus Christ Ahuja, you built a beautiful hospital and recent expansion, but forgot to hire people. I don't give a f if they snuck in from Mexico, El Salvador, or Mars, just hire RNs and technicians and PAs, and let them stay indefinitely if they contribute.

 

You don’t seem to understand that illegal aliens breaking our laws are a problem and a huge drain on our taxes and resources?  

On 3/1/2024 at 8:37 AM, Boomerang_Brian said:

Immigrants improve American society, period. Immigrants, including undocumented immigrants, commit crimes at lower rates than people born here. Immigration is America’s super power and it is extremely unfortunate how many people don’t realize and appreciate that. 

Please explain to me how illegal aliens contribute? By first breaking our laws?