Franklin grew like gangbusters 2010-2020 in that 25-34 demographic.

Cuyahoga had its largest growth 2010-2020 since the 1950s albeit a much smaller numeric growth than Franklin in the same time period.

4 minutes ago, bwheats said:

Franklin grew like gangbusters 2010-2020 in that 25-34 demographic.

Cuyahoga had its largest growth 2010-2020 since the 1950s albeit a much smaller numeric growth than Franklin in the same time period.

It is good to see growth in this demographic for the 2 largest counties in the state. 

the big losses are in glenville -- what can be done?

 

here is one story i found -- young people could not hold on to family property -- 

 

 

 

The demise of East Glenville: Once a tight-knit community, now another blighted neighborhood

 

BY CAROLYN COOPER ● CIVIC ENGAGEMENT, COMMUNITY JOURNALISM, DEVELOPMENT, GOVERNMENT, PUBLIC SAFETY, SUSTAINABILITY ● APRIL 19, 2022

 

 

...

However, many of the younger bloodlines failed to pay the property taxes on their families’ historic houses (the majority of the properties being close to 100 years old). Sadly, many of the homes in my neighborhood went into foreclosure, and now sit vacant or were demolished due to problems including unpaid property taxes.

 

...

Gone are nearly all of the children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren whose ancestors were pillars of the East Glenville community. They left the neighborhood, and are now raising their families elsewhere, choosing to flee and not stick around to help restore or beautify the area, after the majority of them lost the properties.

 

 

https://thelandcle.org/stories/the-demise-of-east-glenville-once-a-tight-knit-community-now-another-blighted-neighborhood/

 

This vacant East Glenville home with overgrown hedges has is surrounded on either side city-owned lots. Photo by Lee Chilcote.

On 6/27/2024 at 9:45 PM, mrnyc said:

the big losses are in glenville -- what can be done?

 

here is one story i found -- young people could not hold on to family property -- 

 

 

 

The demise of East Glenville: Once a tight-knit community, now another blighted neighborhood

 

BY CAROLYN COOPER ● CIVIC ENGAGEMENT, COMMUNITY JOURNALISM, DEVELOPMENT, GOVERNMENT, PUBLIC SAFETY, SUSTAINABILITY ● APRIL 19, 2022

 

 

...

However, many of the younger bloodlines failed to pay the property taxes on their families’ historic houses (the majority of the properties being close to 100 years old). Sadly, many of the homes in my neighborhood went into foreclosure, and now sit vacant or were demolished due to problems including unpaid property taxes.

 

...

Gone are nearly all of the children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren whose ancestors were pillars of the East Glenville community. They left the neighborhood, and are now raising their families elsewhere, choosing to flee and not stick around to help restore or beautify the area, after the majority of them lost the properties.

 

 

https://thelandcle.org/stories/the-demise-of-east-glenville-once-a-tight-knit-community-now-another-blighted-neighborhood/

 

This vacant East Glenville home with overgrown hedges has is surrounded on either side city-owned lots. Photo by Lee Chilcote.

Why have people given Glenville distinct areas based off of location (North Glenville, East Glenville, etc.) I was raised in Glenville and continue to live there and still live there but have never heard people refer to their area based off of direction. 

On 7/9/2024 at 11:01 AM, MyPhoneDead said:

Why have people given Glenville distinct areas based off of location (North Glenville, East Glenville, etc.) I was raised in Glenville and continue to live there and still live there but have never heard people refer to their area based off of direction. 

 

I don't remember this either.  If anything, you'd hear what street they were from.  My Granny lived on E. 112th off of St. Clair and there weren't too many people who rented on the street.  She kept her house up as did the neighbors and there were always flowers in her flowerbed in front of the porch.  She left the house to a cousin who didn't pay the taxes.  The taxes on the house was sold to an out-of-state investor who then foreclosed and took title.  The house is now sitting and rotting away.   

I can see the reasoning to referencing perhaps South Glenville, since it's immediately north of University Circle.

 

Just as the Cleveland Clinic is proving to be catalytic to rehab and development in Fairfax, the same can be said to a relative degree to this area, as well as Hough because of UC. This would then justify the Glenville directional designation.

16 minutes ago, Barneyboy said:

I can see the reasoning to referencing perhaps South Glenville, since it's immediately north of University Circle.

 

If gentrification accelerates it will soon be called  'Circle North' or something like that.

11 hours ago, Rustbelter said:

If gentrification accelerates it will soon be called  'Circle North' or something like that.

 

This may not be a bad thing.  Between the historical riots, the perception of crime, and the decay depicted above, the name likely has a negative connotation.   Including with people from outside the area.

11 hours ago, Rustbelter said:

If gentrification accelerates it will soon be called  'Circle North' or something like that.

 

I think you mean NoMTUC? (North of Midtown / University Circle)

15 hours ago, Rustbelter said:

If gentrification accelerates it will soon be called  'Circle North' or something like that.

 

 

Too late. It started being labeled that about 3 years ago:

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.glenvillecirclenorth.com/&ved=2ahUKEwjNl57Xi8WHAxVahIkEHRH0E-kQFnoECCoQAQ&usg=AOvVaw3QkMdMqc2kSGazDXLuy1Z6

 

https://knez.net/communities/circle-north/

Unpopular opinion: call it whatever bring investment to the neighborhood.

The UN database says metropolitan Cleveland has grown again in 2024 at an accelerating rate.  I'm not sure how they measure the metro area, but it's bigger than the county, smaller than the MSA.

 

Cleveland - Historical Population Data

Year   Population   Growth Rate

2024  1,771,000      0.40%

2023  1,764,000     0.17%

2022  1,761,000      0.06%

2021   1,760,000    -0.17%

 

https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/cities/22959/cleveland/population

7 minutes ago, Dougal said:

The UN database says metropolitan Cleveland has grown again in 2024 at an accelerating rate.  I'm not sure how they measure the metro area, but it's bigger than the MSA, smaller than the CSA.

 

Cleveland - Historical Population Data

Year   Population   Growth Rate

2024  1,771,000      0.40%

2023  1,764,000     0.17%

2022  1,761,000      0.06%

2021   1,760,000    -0.17%

 

https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/cities/22959/cleveland/population

Smaller than MSA. That looks more like the urban area numbers but still not an exact match. 

2 minutes ago, bumsquare said:

Smaller than MSA. That looks more like the urban area numbers but still not an exact match. 

Oops, I corrected it.  The site does not explain the methodology.

On 7/26/2024 at 11:58 PM, bumsquare said:

Smaller than MSA. That looks more like the urban area numbers but still not an exact match. 

Since it's the U.N., it's metric instead of imperial.

Sometimes you don't need charts to illustrate a population trend. The top photo is of the area surrounding the intersection of West 25th Street and Clark Avenue (the N is on West 25th just south of Clark) in the 1940s. I tried to get approximately the same view today on Google Earth. And this is one of Cleveland's neighborhoods that has been growing in recent years due to the influx of Latinos, although after decades of blight and population losses.

 

1940s

 

2023

On 8/13/2024 at 10:32 AM, KJP said:

Sometimes you don't need charts to illustrate a population trend. The top photo is of the area surrounding the intersection of West 25th Street and Clark Avenue (the N is on West 25th just south of Clark) in the 1940s. I tried to get approximately the same view today on Google Earth. And this is one of Cleveland's neighborhoods that has been growing in recent years due to the influx of Latinos, although after decades of blight and population losses.

 

1940s

 

2023

Where is St. Michael’s spire in the top pic?

On 8/17/2024 at 9:06 PM, Ineffable_Matt said:

Where is St. Michael’s spire in the top pic?

 

Looks to be just out of view.

holy cross bronx batman is that ever depressing.

 

yeesh.

 

but good news is we know there is light ahead of that old rustbelted highways to hellscape with new growth via latino immigration.

Some updated Cleveland neighborhood data from the Center for Community Solutions to peruse.

 

2024 City of Cleveland Neighborhoods Fact Sheets

On 9/12/2024 at 7:05 PM, Rustbelter said:

Some updated Cleveland neighborhood data from the Center for Community Solutions to peruse.

 

2024 City of Cleveland Neighborhoods Fact Sheets

The most interesting thing to me is the increase of Asian/Pacific Islander and Hispanic population in Glenville, Hough, and a few other traditionally black neighborhood’s. The increase in diversity is welcomed. Still sucks that almost all neighborhoods including Tremont lost population.

3 hours ago, MyPhoneDead said:

The most interesting thing to me is the increase of Asian/Pacific Islander and Hispanic population in Glenville, Hough, and a few other traditionally black neighborhood’s. The increase in diversity is welcomed. Still sucks that almost all neighborhoods including Tremont lost population.

Alot of the CMHA properties seem to be adding Hispanics in traditionally black neighborhoods. Just something I've noticed from the cases I've handled lately. 

5 hours ago, MyPhoneDead said:

The most interesting thing to me is the increase of Asian/Pacific Islander and Hispanic population in Glenville, Hough, and a few other traditionally black neighborhood’s. The increase in diversity is welcomed. Still sucks that almost all neighborhoods including Tremont lost population.

 

It makes sense with University Circle/Cleveland Clinic related development pushing into the fringes of those neighborhoods.

On 9/12/2024 at 7:05 PM, Rustbelter said:

Some updated Cleveland neighborhood data from the Center for Community Solutions to peruse.

 

2024 City of Cleveland Neighborhoods Fact Sheets

The fact that basically only 1% of all downtown residents are under 18 strikes me as pretty unhealthy. I would think the administration should consider whether there are policy fixes or amenity type improvements that could make downtown more palatable for families. I think downtown will always have fewer families than other parts of the city, but it really ought to be at least 2-3x where it is now.

51 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said:

The fact that basically only 1% of all downtown residents are under 18 strikes me as pretty unhealthy. I would think the administration should consider whether there are policy fixes or amenity type improvements that could make downtown more palatable for families. I think downtown will always have fewer families than other parts of the city, but it really ought to be at least 2-3x where it is now.

I'd be curious to know how that compares to other comparably sized metros. 

 

On one hand I'm thinking that there are real structural issues inherent to the nature of "downtown" that sort of stack the deck against families, at least compared to other options. I'm skeptical that simple policy changes can make a huge impact in the face of those. 

 

On the other hand, tripling one percent, is probably achievable. Some simple things like accessible playgrounds could make a difference. Elevating the perception of safety downtown (not easy). And having available housing options for medium sized families. Make some four bedroom condos available for purchase in a safe area of downtown with a nearby playground and I'm sure some more families will choose to live there. 

Columbus has a smaller downtown population than Cleveland but its under 18 population is about 4%. By comparison, Franklin County as a whole has an under 18 population of about 8%. 

8 hours ago, Ethan said:

I'd be curious to know how that compares to other comparably sized metros. 

I doubt many have any significant percentage. I can say anecdotally from living in Chicago for many years that there are not a lot of under 18's in downtown Chicago either. Once you get into the Gold Coast area you'll find more, which is debatable to include as part of downtown. And even there it tends to be only wealthy families who can afford large condos in marquee buildings along with private schools. You'll probably find some in pockets of the South Loop too but that's not an area I frequented often so I can't say for sure. I did know one women who grew up in a highrise in River North and went to public school, and she said it was definite outlier for her building.

 

8 hours ago, Ethan said:

On one hand I'm thinking that there are real structural issues inherent to the nature of "downtown" that sort of stack the deck against families, at least compared to other options. I'm skeptical that simple policy changes can make a huge impact in the face of those. 

  

Families want personal space and home ownership, and also want to drive with the exception of a few elite urban area neighborhoods in the US. So you need an active area where families can access common amenities by foot, large condos available for purchase, good schools (usually private), and a perception of safety. There are few downtown neighborhoods in the US that offer the critical mass for this - you usually at least need to go to a neighborhood that is downtown adjacent. Having downtowns typically dominated by office buildings certainly doesn't help either.

On 9/12/2024 at 7:05 PM, Rustbelter said:

Some updated Cleveland neighborhood data from the Center for Community Solutions to peruse.

 

2024 City of Cleveland Neighborhoods Fact Sheets

I would also like to see why the white population that finally began growing in Glenville and Hough is now shrinking. Also why is Tremont shrinking despite a lot of recent projects.

^I try to look at Cleveland population data without rose-colored glasses. The reality is that a large portion of the city is still losing a lot of population. It is going to take a long time to turn that around...however, I have a hard time believing data that points to a place like Tremont losing population as well. There have been quite a few larger apartment buildings constructed over there, and even though Tremont encompasses areas toward Metro too, those areas are an investment hotbed as well. At the ground level, I see very little tear-downs or even vacant structures at this point. Not too many conversions from doubles to singles either. So if Tremont is truly losing population, then is the decline in family size really that much to blame? I can't imagine it having such a large affect on a neighborhood as to offset all the growth in apartment stock

Just now, YO to the CLE said:

^I try to look at Cleveland population data without rose-colored glasses. The reality is that a large portion of the city is still losing a lot of population. It is going to take a long time to turn that around...however, I have a hard time believing data that points to a place like Tremont losing population as well. There have been quite a few larger apartment buildings constructed over there, and even though Tremont encompasses areas toward Metro too, those areas are an investment hotbed as well. At the ground level, I see very little tear-downs or even vacant structures at this point. Not too many conversions from doubles to singles either. So if Tremont is truly losing population, then is the decline in family size really that much to blame? I can't imagine it having such a large affect on a neighborhood as to offset all the growth in apartment stock

It's quite possible that Tremont lost population. When we think of Tremont we think of the new housing and wealth moving in. But for every two of those people a low-income family of ten living in the down unit of an up down moves out because of affordability. There is still a far amount of Tremont that is like that. Particularly south of 490. 

57 minutes ago, MyPhoneDead said:

I would also like to see why the white population that finally began growing in Glenville and Hough is now shrinking. Also why is Tremont shrinking despite a lot of recent projects.

I haven't dug into the data but anecdotally (and as a resident) I'd be inclined to say it's the continuation of the smaller household w/higher income trend. Long-term residents with larger families moving out (and in some cases cashing in) being replaced by DINKs. I can think of several rentals in the area that are occupied by one or two people that previously housed four or more.

Somewhat important population update! Data.census.gov just released ACS 1-year data for 2023 last week, and I wanted to make everyone aware that Cleveland GAINED (estimation of course) population from 2022 to 2023, roughly 1,000 new residents!!!

*Note: No ACS 1-year 2020 data for decennial census year.

With an overall INCREASE in metro population from 2010 to 2020 and the city finally turning it's population loss around, things are looking positive for 2030.

 

Also, I'll link my public spreadsheet again that y'all can use to see my population data analysis on a neighborhood/census tract level to answer those questions posted above. Census tracts are only done ACS 5-year, and that data will be released in December, at which time I will load the 2023 data into the spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11ovx4ec51yi0-9dkKlnQHqSdNhRqsZ4Q/edit?gid=1344385468#gid=1344385468

Edited September 17, 2024Sep 17 by Geowizical

On 9/16/2024 at 10:19 AM, LlamaLawyer said:

The fact that basically only 1% of all downtown residents are under 18 strikes me as pretty unhealthy. I would think the administration should consider whether there are policy fixes or amenity type improvements that could make downtown more palatable for families. I think downtown will always have fewer families than other parts of the city, but it really ought to be at least 2-3x where it is now.

I have one that just turned 15 and she’s never lived anywhere else. She went to public school K-8. She switched over to private this year.

8 hours ago, KFM44107 said:

It's quite possible that Tremont lost population. When we think of Tremont we think of the new housing and wealth moving in. But for every two of those people a low-income family of ten living in the down unit of an up down moves out because of affordability. There is still a far amount of Tremont that is like that. Particularly south of 490. 

 

In Columbus, parts of Olde Towne East were seeing an influx of wealthier people fixing up houses for the better part of 30 years before its population decline finally reversed between 2010 and 2020. It takes quite a while for these types of changes to manifest into true population growth. 

Average US household sizes have dropped from 4 to 3 in the last 50ish years. All the mid-upper 6 figure SFHs won't mitigate that stat, and obviously it affects population growth.

 

Point  - I get it hurts when the city keeps losing population and metro area stagnates, but it's not that big a deal ultimately. 

 

Now household income levels seems a better depiction of a region's health. 

Sure, Northeast Ohio's shrinking/flat population hasn't led to societal collapse but I can't agree it's not a "big deal." We can debate how much growth is ideal, but all the evidence indicates that "no growth" is bad. Since my grandparent's youth, we've lost economic and political influence nationally, concentrated wealth and poverty in completely different cities to create generational inequality that leaves a huge percentage of our population on the sidelines, and I would argue our civic and business leadership is weaker than other regions because many of our best and brightest have left for better opportunities elsewhere.

 

Fewer people means: fewer workers for jobs and employers moving to new regions, fewer caretakers for our seniors and everyone else, developers invest in growing areas in other regions that present better returns, fewer students means closing schools and universities, less tax dollars to maintain all our infrastructure, neighborhoods made up of aging homeowners who can't physically or financially maintain their houses, leading to sinking home values. The one thing that can help with all of these things is growth. 

Edited September 18, 2024Sep 18 by coneflower

4 minutes ago, coneflower said:

Sure, Northeast Ohio's shrinking/flat population hasn't led to societal collapse but I can't agree it's not a "big deal."

It's a very big deal.  Add in the fact that the developed area in Cuyahoga County has grown dramatically at the same time that population has been flat or shrinking.  More miles of roadways, more lanes as roads are widened, more miles of water/sewer/electric/gas/cable, etc. -- far more infrastructure investment on a flat or falling tax base.  Yes, sewer systems last a lifetime, but not forever.  As the older suburbs are now discovering, maintenance is expensive.  And while the newer suburbs are enjoying their newer infrastructure today, where will we be in another 50 years if the population continues to stagnate and expand ever outward?

ahem, the springfield solution is staring cle stagnation in the face. just sayin.

48 minutes ago, mrnyc said:

ahem, the springfield solution is staring cle stagnation in the face. just sayin.

I don’t see how reducing the pet population helps

In all seriousness, I don’t understand why Cleveland is not luring more immigrants like Springfield? 

A few reasons of the top of my head:

 

Republicans have generally controlled Ohio's house, senate, and governor seat for the last 35 years. Can't see them encouraging Latino, Asian, or African national growth.

 

Cleveland's generational low income residents, of which there are many and a huge voting bloc, as is the case often, can be xenophobic and threatened by new residents. Frank received criticism when he said the city needs to take care of its own first, but he was just echoing his constituents' concerns/prejudices.

 

A lot of resources, aka $$$, are needed for placement, plus there are rules if they can work (legally) - it just depends on the immigrant's status.

 

There was no formal program in which Springfield absorbed so many Haitians; rather, it was completely done via word-of-mouth due to low cost-of-living and job openings. 

 

In present day Cleveland, there really aren't existing international communities to which immigrants will logically relocate. It isn't like 1900 when a Polish, Slavic, Ukrainian, etc, immigrant would gravitate to those existing Eurocentric neighborhoods. I think Cleveland's growing Latino community is Puerto Rican, so it isn't like Venezuelans or Central Americans have much in common if they move to Clark-Fulton.

 

I'm sure there are much more complex reasons.

Haven't there been quite a few Ukrainians that have immigrated to Cleveland recently?

Parma alone has absorbed 3-4 thousand the last few years. 5,000ish total in the region. 

 

Cleveland, however, has not.

3 hours ago, TBideon said:

Cleveland's generational low income residents, of which there are many and a huge voting bloc, as is the case often, can be xenophobic and threatened by new residents. Frank received criticism when he said the city needs to take care of its own first, but he was just echoing his constituents' concerns/prejudices.

 

Cleveland's poverty numbers have been working themselves down gradually.  In 2010 the rate was 33.7% of the population; in 2020 it was 30.7% of a smaller number. The currently estimated rate is higher by a statistically insignificant amount, but again on a smaller number.  In gross numbers, the 130,000 individuals in poverty has been reduced to a bit under 110,000. It is probably fair to say 2030 will report a number under 100K on a slightly higher base. There doesn't seem to be "silver bullet" data on why the number is falling; but we can guess at death, moves out of the area, and personal successes.

 

(I got these numbers from US Census for 2010 and 2020; more current numbers came from a variety of places which I pieced together. Reporters seem very careful never to cite directly comparable data.)

On 9/25/2024 at 10:07 AM, TBideon said:

Parma alone has absorbed 3-4 thousand the last few years. 5,000ish total in the region. 

 

Cleveland, however, has not.

 

thats great, but even that is peanuts vs springfield. springfield! who knew?!

On 9/25/2024 at 10:07 AM, TBideon said:

Parma alone has absorbed 3-4 thousand the last few years. 5,000ish total in the region. 

 

Cleveland, however, has not.

 

That's correct, but Cleveland proper is also absorbing many African refugees from places like Senegal and Congo, and now a new surge from South America, namely Venezuela.

1 hour ago, KJP said:

 

That's correct, but Cleveland proper is also absorbing many African refugees from places like Senegal and Congo, and now a new surge from South America, namely Venezuela.

 

Do we know what neighborhoods they are settling in?

Cudell and/or West Boulevard.

I can also vouch for Cudell/West Blvd. Between East side residents moving over to a more stable West Blvd/Cudell area and many immigrants/refugees coming from Africa, Latin America, and even Palestine/arabic communities, this area is becoming quite the melting pot. I wouldn't be surprised to see a population increase or at least stabilization in this area in the coming years

 

This is also showing up in the real estate market too. A typical duplex rated in a "good" condition or better is now fetching about $175k. Pre pandemic, the average was about $100k. Rents have seen quite an uptick too.

Edited September 29, 2024Sep 29 by YO to the CLE

https://www.cleveland.com/news/2024/10/cleveland-area-is-home-to-nearly-a-third-of-the-refugees-who-came-to-ohio-in-the-last-year.html

 

Interesting article. The number for Cleveland proper is even higher than I would have expected. For context, if Cleveland added exactly this number of refugees every year for a decade (assuming no other net population change) it would represent 3.6% population growth over the decade.

 

I'm a little surprised about there only being 54 Ukrainians listed for the entire state of Ohio. That feels significantly too low. Are most arrivals coming through some means that doesn't register on this count? @KJP any thoughts?