44 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said:

https://www.cleveland.com/news/2024/10/cleveland-area-is-home-to-nearly-a-third-of-the-refugees-who-came-to-ohio-in-the-last-year.html

 

Interesting article. The number for Cleveland proper is even higher than I would have expected. For context, if Cleveland added exactly this number of refugees every year for a decade (assuming no other net population change) it would represent 3.6% population growth over the decade.

 

I'm a little surprised about there only being 54 Ukrainians listed for the entire state of Ohio. That feels significantly too low. Are most arrivals coming through some means that doesn't register on this count? @KJP any thoughts?

 

Maybe there must be a difference between "refugees" and "immigrants" ... ??

 

Curious what @KJP has to say, but we've been seeing articles with numbers in the thousands for new Ukrainians coming to NEO ... for example:  https://www.freshwatercleveland.com/features/Ukrainian_Refugees_032023.aspx

 

2 minutes ago, MuRrAy HiLL said:

 

 

 

Maybe there must be a difference between "refugees" and "immigrants" ... ??

 

Curious what @KJP has to say, but we've been seeing articles with numbers in the thousands for new Ukrainians coming to NEO ... for example:  https://www.freshwatercleveland.com/features/Ukrainian_Refugees_032023.aspx

 

Well there is definitely a difference between refugee and immigrant, with refugee being a subset of immigrant. Still, lots of Ukrainians would qualify for refugee status, so I'm wondering why more aren't under that category. There's a special category for Ukrainians, but by the same token, there's a special category for Afghans, and they're counted.

According to my wife who works for USCRI, 54 Ukrainians as "refugees" is probably a good figure since the refugee process would have had to have started before the full ruzzian invasion in Feb. 2022. The parole process is different and represents many, many more people. USCRI Cleveland alone has handled 500+ just in the past year, my wife says. And other organizations in Cleveland have handled hundreds more Ukrainian cases, probably in excess of 1,000 this year.

I'm real curious to know the story of the 2 refugees from the United Kingdoms.

^That's Prince Harry and Meghan Markle

On 10/16/2024 at 5:03 PM, MuRrAy HiLL said:

 

 

 

Maybe there must be a difference between "refugees" and "immigrants" ... ??

 

Curious what @KJP has to say, but we've been seeing articles with numbers in the thousands for new Ukrainians coming to NEO ... for example:  https://www.freshwatercleveland.com/features/Ukrainian_Refugees_032023.aspx

 

 

I believe that refugees intend to go back, immigrants do not.

56 minutes ago, E Rocc said:

 

I believe that refugees intend to go back, immigrants do not.

Correct. It gets even more confusing because there's a difference between refugee status and asylum status. Refugees apply for status outside of the country and then get approved and move here. Asylum they come into the country either illegally or via another status and then apply for asylum status. 

9 hours ago, E Rocc said:

 

I believe that refugees intend to go back, immigrants do not.

 

I think that's the difference between "expat" and immigrant. Refugees don't necessarily always return, or want to. 

On 10/24/2024 at 9:09 PM, jonoh81 said:

 

I think that's the difference between "expat" and immigrant. Refugees don't necessarily always return, or want to. 

An Expat is a citisen of one country who lives in another but has no intention of becoming a citisen of the host country.  I myself will be in this category (hopefully), dividing my time between Shaker Square and as yet undisclosed city in France

2 hours ago, B767PILOT said:

An Expat is a citisen of one country who lives in another but has no intention of becoming a citisen of the host country.  I myself will be in this category (hopefully), dividing my time between Shaker Square and as yet undisclosed city in France

 

Yes, "expats" are at most temporary residents. They will not assimilate, not gain national citizenship, etc. 

The Census Bureau says no, but Bank of America says the Cleveland MSA has continued growing through the three quarters of 2024.

 

Source: https://institute.bankofamerica.com/economic-insights/on-the-move-q3-2024.html

 

On 10/24/2024 at 1:05 PM, KFM44107 said:

Asylum they come into the country either illegally or via another status and then apply for asylum status. 

 

Just reinforcing this, asylum is a legal status. Congress passed a law allowing people to come to the US and stay if granted asylum.  You have to ask for it, and I think you have to be in the US when you do so.  How you entered the US, whether through a port or just walking across the border, does not matter.  If granted asylum you are legally allowed to stay in the US (permanent resident).

1 hour ago, Dougal said:

The Census Bureau says no, but Bank of America says the Cleveland MSA has continued growing through the three quarters of 2024.

 

Source: https://institute.bankofamerica.com/economic-insights/on-the-move-q3-2024.html

 

The Bank of America numbers *feel* more real to me than the census estimates. At least, I feel that there has been a slow but noticeable increase in general busy-ness in the east side suburbs over the last couple years. This is just a general vibe check based on things like, how long do I have to wait in lines for carryout, how much traffic is there, how much foot traffic is there, etc.

 

I'm curious why Cincinnati isn't on this chart and how it would stack up.

 

Also, I think it will be interesting to see how Columbus's continued growth affects Cleveland going forward. I do expect Columbus to maintain a much higher rate of growth than us due to massive international and interstate migration. Columbus is "getting expensive" (I say that with quotes because it's really not right now), but in a few years with continued growth like this, it's pretty plausible to me that it could actually become pretty expensive--not in a LA or New York kind of way, but perhaps in a Denver kind of way. I wonder as the cost of living differential between Cleveland and Columbus continues to grow if/when the point will come that the net flow of migration is from Columbus to Cleveland as opposed to the other way around. There are obviously a lot of young adults who grew up in Cleveland and have parents there but live in Columbus now.

1 hour ago, LlamaLawyer said:

I'm curious why Cincinnati isn't on this chart and how it would stack up.

 

It's not a large Bank of America market.

23 minutes ago, ColDayMan said:

 

It's not a large Bank of America market.

 

Any other reasons? Google shows Greater Cincinnati (from Ohio River north to Middletown) has 15 BoA branches and 6 non-branch ATMs. Greater Columbus (within 10 miles of I-270) has 15 branches and 5 ATMs. Greater Cleveland (Avon Lake to Mentor and south to Brunswick) has 14 branches and 7 ATMs.

The Bank of America methodology for the above chart is to determine where its customers are moving.  Netted out, they are moving to Cleveland, among other places.  They make no attempt to copy the Census Bureau's methods.

 

 

 

 

 

 

2 hours ago, KJP said:

 

Any other reasons? Google shows Greater Cincinnati (from Ohio River north to Middletown) has 15 BoA branches and 6 non-branch ATMs. Greater Columbus (within 10 miles of I-270) has 15 branches and 5 ATMs. Greater Cleveland (Avon Lake to Mentor and south to Brunswick) has 14 branches and 7 ATMs.

 

Branches are different than market share.  I don't know BoA's market share of commercial lending, etc for any of the 3C's but we all know Cincinnati is heavily saturated with Fifth Third Bank.  That's my theory.

40 minutes ago, ColDayMan said:

 

Branches are different than market share.  I don't know BoA's market share of commercial lending, etc for any of the 3C's but we all know Cincinnati is heavily saturated with Fifth Third Bank.  That's my theory.

As I reflect, it looks like other midsized cities are missing. The BoA numbers don't include Salt Lake City or Pittsburgh or Kansas City for example. I don't know how they picked the cities, but it's clearly just a sample, not a full list.

26 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said:

As I reflect, it looks like other midsized cities are missing. The BoA numbers don't include Salt Lake City or Pittsburgh or Kansas City for example. I don't know how they picked the cities, but it's clearly just a sample, not a full list.

https://portal.ct.gov/dob/consumer/consumer-education/abcs-of-banking--banks-geographic-structure

 

This has a good explanation of the ins and outs of large banks and their branches and why you don't see more of these mega banks in the Cleveland region. 

 

BofA: Cleveland near top of migration destinations
By Ken Prendergast / November 6, 2024

 

Greater Cleveland ranked fourth on the list of global financial institution Bank of America’s (BofA) latest rankings of where people are moving. That data shows Americans are continuing a pandemic-induced flight to affordability, without sacrificing amenities, in choosing where they want to live.

 

MORE:

https://neo-trans.blog/2024/11/06/bofa-cleveland-near-top-of-migration-destinations/

Very nice to see this bit of good news today. The population increase isn't great but maybe it's just the beginning of a very positive trend. 

The hope is that Cleveland isn't just a place to get their footing in the US because it's cheap, rather a place where they find employment, and set roots.

17 hours ago, Jenny said:

The hope is that Cleveland isn't just a place to get their footing in the US because it's cheap, rather a place where they find employment, and set roots.

 

Some of category A are likely to become category B.

Great article @KJP! If you don't mind: the Cleveland MSA also includes Ashtabula Co. :)

18 minutes ago, Geowizical said:

Great article @KJP! If you don't mind: the Cleveland MSA also includes Ashtabula Co. :)

 

Oh yea, that's right. In my aging mind, if it happened after the 1980s, it didn't happen! 😉 Thx

I remember in connection with the 2000 and I believe 2010 census, Key Bank (like BofA above) insisted that CLE population was undercounted.  They felt that the population remained steady through the 1990's to clock-in at approx. 505,000.  The discussion is probably in this thread.  I think Key went as far as to ask the Census Bureau for a recount or revision based upon their metrics.  Turned down.

 

downtown is over 21k with 1k immediately on the way —

 

 

https://www.instagram.com/p/DCZhY4NJf3I/?igsh=MWx0ZWl0MjRvcHp1Yg==

ACS 2023 census tract data was released today. I updated my projections for 2023 and things are looking good for the most part 3 years into the decade. All counties saw an increase in population while Ashtabula decreased by a minimal amount. The 2023 estimate takes the 2020 census data and uses the change in ACS data between years to estimate what the census actually is for that year. The reason for this is because ACS underreported Cuyahoga Co population in 2020 by about 23k people compared to the actual census which is a significant difference.

 

The adjustment factors in the margin of error for ACS data, which is a 90% confidence.

 

^ i did not realize cuyahoga was dropping so much. oof.

1 hour ago, mrnyc said:

^ i did not realize cuyahoga was dropping so much. oof.

 

Mostly attributed to people moving to new developments in surrounding counties like Lake, Medina, and Lorain.

4 hours ago, mrnyc said:

^ i did not realize cuyahoga was dropping so much. oof.

Well, thet are estimating it is growing again, so let's hope that accelerates.

^ While not ideal, I'm glad the outer counties picked up the slack the last forty years. The problems with sprawl have been discussed at nauseum, but I think the region as a whole is better off with the majority of those 200,000 people having moved to surrounding counties versus having left the region completely. Cuyahoga county is in a much better position to re-densify with the surrounding counties already largely sprawled out. 

19 minutes ago, Ethan said:

^ While not ideal, I'm glad the outer counties picked up the slack the last forty years. The problems with sprawl have been discussed at nauseum, but I think the region as a whole is better off with the majority of those 200,000 people having moved to surrounding counties versus having left the region completely. Cuyahoga county is in a much better position to re-densify with the surrounding counties already largely sprawled out. 

Let's hope Cuyahoga continues the 2023 modest growth (and the region) each year until the 2030 decennial census. It won't take a away from C-bus and region expected growth numbers but we need a new headline other than - Population Decline Continues.

50 minutes ago, Ethan said:

^ While not ideal, I'm glad the outer counties picked up the slack the last forty years. The problems with sprawl have been discussed at nauseum, but I think the region as a whole is better off with the majority of those 200,000 people having moved to surrounding counties versus having left the region completely. Cuyahoga county is in a much better position to re-densify with the surrounding counties already largely sprawled out. 

“Picked up the slack” is an interesting way to put it lol. 

Yeah, this seems like a confusion between cause and effect.  Cuyahoga County is losing population primarily because of outmigration to surrounding counties.  Lorain and Medina aren't by and large bringing in transplants from outside the region that are then going to move into Cuyahoga.

8 hours ago, X said:

 

Mostly attributed to people moving to new developments in surrounding counties like Lake, Medina, and Lorain.

 

more like mostly due to lack of significant immigration, at least as compared to springfield apparantly.

1 minute ago, mrnyc said:

 

more like mostly due to lack of significant immigration, at least as compared to springfield apparantly.

Immigration can offset losses from outmigration or natural loss (deaths), but lack of immigration does not cause population loss.

Just now, X said:

Immigration can offset losses from outmigration or natural loss (deaths), but lack of immigration does not cause population loss.

 

i’d wager just as many if not more move to columbus area than lorain or medina counties. the well known vacuum cleaner of all ohio is always underestimated up north.

one thing that fuels out migration in the region is ease of commuting. its almost beyond belief easy around cle vs other city metros. its just a matter of distance, not time. there is little reason to not try to get newer or more for your money on the outskirts when its such a relative breeze to get anywhere. 

1 hour ago, X said:

Yeah, this seems like a confusion between cause and effect.  Cuyahoga County is losing population primarily because of outmigration to surrounding counties.  Lorain and Medina aren't by and large bringing in transplants from outside the region that are then going to move into Cuyahoga.

Absolutely. My point is that losing people to surrounding counties is much less bad than people leaving the region entirely. It's a lot easier to come back from, and if we can start attracting more people to the region, the easy sprawl is already gone, so it will be less challenging to entice them towards Cuyahoga County. It's not easy anymore to find spacious, affordable lots relatively close to civilization anymore in surrounding counties. With the easy sprawl out of the way, I like Cuyahoga County odds of redensifying moving forward. 

1 hour ago, mrnyc said:

one thing that fuels out migration in the region is ease of commuting. its almost beyond belief easy around cle vs other city metros. its just a matter of distance, not time. there is little reason to not try to get newer or more for your money on the outskirts when its such a relative breeze to get anywhere. 

I agree. I think the future of house is demand is going to be on the edges and closer to the city center. Some of the older suburbs with small houses and small lots that also aren’t walkable may be challenged. But I guess if more housing isn’t built, then demand everywhere will continue to push up prices!

1 hour ago, Ethan said:

Absolutely. My point is that losing people to surrounding counties is much less bad than people leaving the region entirely. It's a lot easier to come back from, and if we can start attracting more people to the region, the easy sprawl is already gone, so it will be less challenging to entice them towards Cuyahoga County. It's not easy anymore to find spacious, affordable lots relatively close to civilization anymore in surrounding counties. With the easy sprawl out of the way, I like Cuyahoga County odds of redensifying moving forward. 

 

i would disagree. there is still easy sprawl to be built within half hour commuting distances. commuting doesn’t get to be a continuous annoyance until you get to an hour commute time. ne ohio is ‘lucky’ in a sense to be so overbuilt for highways that kind of time eating commute is rare.

 

look at a similar sized city and metro like orlando for example. its underbuilt for roads of all types and traffic is constantly maddening. not sure, but it seems it may even be forcing them to densify more than they might like. its the opposite of ne ohio with its heavy duty highway heyday legacy.

 

so yeah, maybe calm the shoreway instead of building opportunity corridors. of course there is more to holding population than that, but you get the point that ne roads are fast and furious nox fueling sprawl.

16 hours ago, coneflower said:

I agree. I think the future of house is demand is going to be on the edges and closer to the city center. Some of the older suburbs with small houses and small lots that also aren’t walkable may be challenged. But I guess if more housing isn’t built, then demand everywhere will continue to push up prices!

I am encouraged by what is happening in some inner ring burbs, particularly on the eastern side of Cuyahoga county. Ryan homes is building infill homes in the northern part of South Euclid, marketing and selling them for $300k +. They have dozens more lots throughout that section of the city to build on in the future.

 

Maple Heights is building momentum with their infill projects. Van Aken in Shaker, Belle Oaks in Richmond and the handful (or two) of large multi-family projects in Cleveland Heights are a great start.

 

 

 

Office Conversions Find New Life After Property Values Plunge

 

Story by Peter Grant

 

 

Developer efforts to convert emptying office towers into residential buildings have largely gone nowhere. That may be finally changing.

 

…
 

In Cleveland, 12% of its total office inventory is either undergoing conversions or is planned for conversion. Many projects there are clustered around the city’s 10-acre Public Square. The former transit hub went through a $50 million upgrade about 10 years ago, adding fountains, an amphitheater and green paths.

 

“You end up with so much space that you paid so little for, that you can create amenities that you would never build if you were doing new construction,” said Daniel Neidich, chief executive of Dune Real Estate Partners, a private-equity firm that has teamed up with developer TF Cornerstone to invest $1 billion on about 20 conversion projects throughout the U.S. in the next three years.

 

 

more:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/office-conversions-find-new-life-after-property-values-plunge/ar-AA1uMfc7

On 12/12/2024 at 11:43 AM, Geowizical said:

ACS 2023 census tract data was released today. I updated my projections for 2023 and things are looking good for the most part 3 years into the decade. All counties saw an increase in population while Ashtabula decreased by a minimal amount. The 2023 estimate takes the 2020 census data and uses the change in ACS data between years to estimate what the census actually is for that year. The reason for this is because ACS underreported Cuyahoga Co population in 2020 by about 23k people compared to the actual census which is a significant difference.

 

The adjustment factors in the margin of error for ACS data, which is a 90% confidence.

 

So if I’m understanding this right Cuyahoga county has lost 15k so far in population this decade but because of the 23k undercount it’s up 8k from what were the initial census numbers? 

22 minutes ago, cle_guy90 said:

So if I’m understanding this right Cuyahoga county has lost 15k so far in population this decade but because of the 23k undercount it’s up 8k from what were the initial census numbers? 

Technically hasn't lost population - you can't go from a census number to an acs number accurately, you have to go census to census or acs to acs:

 

ACS 2020 = 1,241,475

ACS 2023 = 1,249,418

+7,943

 

Census 2020 = 1,264,817

Adjusted Census 2023 = 1,272,760

Edited December 16, 2024Dec 16 by Geowizical

3 hours ago, Geowizical said:

Technically hasn't lost population - you can't go from a census number to an acs number accurately, you have to go census to census or acs to acs:

 

ACS 2020 = 1,241,475

ACS 2023 = 1,249,418

+7,943

 

Census 2020 = 1,264,817

Adjusted Census 2023 = 1,272,760

 

Has the Census Bureau not updated its public numbers yet?  I can find any change in the Census Bureau's online numbers.

6 hours ago, Geowizical said:

Technically hasn't lost population - you can't go from a census number to an acs number accurately, you have to go census to census or acs to acs:

 

ACS 2020 = 1,241,475

ACS 2023 = 1,249,418

+7,943

 

Census 2020 = 1,264,817

Adjusted Census 2023 = 1,272,760

Thanks!  Another question.  Do you think the ACS realized their error in calculating and has managed to figure out what they did wrong?  So, even though their 2020 numbers are off (and not updated), their 2023 numbers are accurate.  Therefore, the population really is 1,249,418 and not your extrapolated number.

Well we don't know the population really is 1,249,418 because it's an estimate, but your point is still valid!

 

Now that I think about it, I was comparing 5-year data (which is the most accurate) as a year-to-year which is actually a no-no because it actually an amalgamation of the past 5 years data (so, apologies on my part!). If you want to use the ACS 5-year 2023 (which is a more accurate than ACS 1-year), then you can only realistically compare it to the 2018 dataset because the 2018 data is entirely independent from the 2023 data:

 

Cuyahoga County ACS 2018 5-Year = 1,253,783

Cuyahoga County ACS 2023 5-Year = 1,249,418

Total = -4,365 over 5 years

 

This five-year comparison would be much more accurate. Problem is, it tell you nothing about the trend since 2020, because the year-to-year could vary wildly in between and you'd still get this total. For example we could've lost 10k people between 2018 and 2020 but then gained 6k since 2020 (still net -4k), which could be a case where the county is in fact gaining population since the last census. I'm not a professional but this is just my understanding of what I've learned from studying the Census's various explanations for their methodology.

 

I guess this means, if we want to see the changes in population since 2020, we won't be able to make that first comparison until 2025 data is released as that would be five years.

So all this to say: I'll recant my previous projection and I'll get back to you in two years on December 2026 with an answer haha 😜

Edited December 16, 2024Dec 16 by Geowizical

Outstanding population growth in Ohio (historically speaking) 60k gain pushes the state ever closer to 12 million.