If you really want to see an influx of unskilled workers to Cleveland, go ahead and shut down all the coal mines.  It's a straight shot up 77 from Charleston to here.  And how might that population trend affect future elections in Ohio?  Not they way Democrats would prefer, not after turning our backs on all those unionized workers.

 

Lol! This is perhaps the least sound argument you've presented on here. Charlotte is a straight shot South. Richmond and Pittsburgh are to the East, Columbus to the West. All of these cities - for the moment - have more employment opportunities. Immigration to Cleveland happened because labor was in demand. Not because people were laid off elsewhere and decided to rush here en masse.

 

And to KJP[/member]'s point... the absolute worst case scenario would only implicate 6-8,000 coal miners. Coal has been dead since before the VCR, but only one industry drags and stomps their feet.

 

I was trying to pull us back on topic.  Note the blatant use of keywords. 

 

Yes, Columbus would probably get more of them than we would.  It always has.  "Reading, writing, and Route 23" was the joke.  Then again, Columbus also has less capacity to absorb a sudden mass exodus.  The Pittsburgh area seems to be sending people our way already, more of a trickle than an exodus right now.  Coal jobs continue to shrivel while oil and gas didn't produce the kind of sustainable employment anyone was hoping for.

 

I think you've grossly underestimated the exodus effect of losing those coal jobs.  Each one carries several other jobs on its back.  All of them have to leave if the kingpin is pulled. Nobody will be staying behind to man the K-Mart.

Take up the definition of chain migration with dear leader.  He is the one that wants to end it.  A Google search will help.

 

Oh, because it's based on Merit and not who you know.

 

Chain Immigration worked in the past, you know when America had factories, made things, and needed unskilled workers that didn't speak English, couldn't read, write, add or subtract.  That's not the case any longer, so why shouldn't Immigration be based on merit or skill etc.?

 

Family ties don't cut it anymore; merit and employment skills do.

 

At least illegal immigration will still be OK.

 

It's so weird how the policies that made the US the strongest nation in human history are suddenly no longer acceptable because a few demographics want to bring back the 1950s economy, something that will never come back regardless of immigration.

Way off topic, so my feelings won't be hurt if this is removed:

 

In fairness, merit based immigration policies are used throughout the Western World. That's why it makes no sense to bash the US on immigration then pump up a place like Canada as "open minded". Canada has been doing it Trump style for decades.

 

I don't like the merit system. I think our current immigration policy is better and is why we are still the main port of entry for people looking for a better life. I don't want to be like Canada and Europe on this one whose policies are more insular and take us backward.

 

 

Way off topic, so my feelings won't be hurt if this is removed:

 

In fairness, merit based immigration policies are used throughout the Western World. That's why it makes no sense to bash the US on immigration then pump up a place like Canada as "open minded". Canada has been doing it Trump style for decades.

 

I don't like the merit system. I think our current immigration policy is better and is why we are still the main port of entry for people looking for a better life. I don't want to be like Canada and Europe on this one whose policies are more insular and take us backward.

 

 

 

So Trump should be pushing for easy and quick visas for low-skilled workers trying to cross the southern border.  99.5% of these people end up picking our fruit and maybe eventually washing dishes at restaurants.  They aren't taking jobs from Trump-country folk, who would never do these jobs even if paid a decent wage. 

^ I agree. We shouldn't close the southern border.

Way off topic, so my feelings won't be hurt if this is removed:

 

In fairness, merit based immigration policies are used throughout the Western World. That's why it makes no sense to bash the US on immigration then pump up a place like Canada as "open minded". Canada has been doing it Trump style for decades.

 

I don't like the merit system. I think our current immigration policy is better and is why we are still the main port of entry for people looking for a better life. I don't want to be like Canada and Europe on this one whose policies are more insular and take us backward.

 

America should be exceptional, I agree.  A lot of us wouldn't exist if we had always been under a merit-based system.  As far as I know, none of my immigrant ancestors were particularly educated or skilled.  And if people are so worried about unskilled labor and not enough of those jobs, what would be so difficult about starting national training programs?  This country used to be aspirational.

Way off topic, so my feelings won't be hurt if this is removed:

 

In fairness, merit based immigration policies are used throughout the Western World. That's why it makes no sense to bash the US on immigration then pump up a place like Canada as "open minded". Canada has been doing it Trump style for decades.

 

I don't like the merit system. I think our current immigration policy is better and is why we are still the main port of entry for people looking for a better life. I don't want to be like Canada and Europe on this one whose policies are more insular and take us backward.

 

 

 

So Trump should be pushing for easy and quick visas for low-skilled workers trying to cross the southern border.  99.5% of these people end up picking our fruit and maybe eventually washing dishes at restaurants.  They aren't taking jobs from Trump-country folk, who would never do these jobs even if paid a decent wage.

 

Ironically, the lack of cheap workers willing to take those jobs is only going to accelerate the move to automation.  Then, no one gets them, native or immigrant.

For population counting purposes, is the Campus District distinct from Downtown? Or is it a subset? I've seen population numbers for "Downtown" that were a couple thousand higher that the recently claimed 15,200 or so. One voice said the final number depends on how you count students and prisoners.

Campus District is partially Downtown.  The city defines downtown's borders as Lake Erie, Inner belt, and Cuyahoga River.

Time to add to my recent comments about seeing more out of state license plates, especially from East Coast states, around town...

 

From Crains: Greg Deming, property manager at the new Worthington Yards in Cleveland's Warehouse District, said he's been surprised by the number of people relocating to Cleveland for new jobs this winter and believes it's the busiest of the last four.

 

"Usually, December through February are slow," Deming said. "I've never seen it like this. We'll be filled by springtime."

 

BTW, my photo of these two cars with New York state plates was taken next to the newly converted office-to-housing Lakewood Center North building in downtown Lakewood.

Living On: 'Silver Tsunami' coming to Northeast Ohio: Are we ready?

http://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2018/02/living_on_silver_tsunami_comin_1.html

Crain's had a small item: http://www.crainscleveland.com/article/20180208/blogs03/151381/educated-millennials-love-boston-and-madison-they-northeast-ohio-too

 

in which they referenced a Brookings study of percentage of the 2016 population with bachelor's degrees in various cities. Cleveland ranked 40th out of 100, with 36.1% baccalaureate holders in the MSA. It seemed ho-hum until I looked up 2011 - it was 27.9%, according to the same Census Bureau ACS database.

 

People leaving the MSA or dying are less educated than those staying/arriving. I guess we knew that; but the rate of increase (30% in five years) is impressive. Demographic data rarely change that much that quickly. I don't know if the region can keep up the pace, but it's a big driver for the changes we are now seeing.

Aaron Renn at Urbanophile discussed that study here:

http://www.urbanophile.com/2017/10/18/the-changing-urban-patterns-in-college-degreed-younger-adults/

 

And a follow up:

http://www.urbanophile.com/2017/10/24/more-on-younger-adults-with-college-degees/

Crain's had a small item: http://www.crainscleveland.com/article/20180208/blogs03/151381/educated-millennials-love-boston-and-madison-they-northeast-ohio-too

 

in which they referenced a Brookings study of percentage of the 2016 population with bachelor's degrees in various cities. Cleveland ranked 40th out of 100, with 36.1% baccalaureate holders in the MSA. It seemed ho-hum until I looked up 2011 - it was 27.9%, according to the same Census Bureau ACS database.

 

People leaving the MSA or dying are less educated than those staying/arriving. I guess we knew that; but the rate of increase (30% in five years) is impressive. Demographic data rarely change that much that quickly. I don't know if the region can keep up the pace, but it's a big driver for the changes we are now seeing.

 

Does the Brookings study use Census data?  If not, it's not actually a direct comparison from the 2011 to 2016 numbers. 

Crain's had a small item: http://www.crainscleveland.com/article/20180208/blogs03/151381/educated-millennials-love-boston-and-madison-they-northeast-ohio-too

 

in which they referenced a Brookings study of percentage of the 2016 population with bachelor's degrees in various cities. Cleveland ranked 40th out of 100, with 36.1% baccalaureate holders in the MSA. It seemed ho-hum until I looked up 2011 - it was 27.9%, according to the same Census Bureau ACS database.

 

People leaving the MSA or dying are less educated than those staying/arriving. I guess we knew that; but the rate of increase (30% in five years) is impressive. Demographic data rarely change that much that quickly. I don't know if the region can keep up the pace, but it's a big driver for the changes we are now seeing.

 

Does the Brookings study use Census data?  If not, it's not actually a direct comparison from the 2011 to 2016 numbers. 

 

It does - both numbers are from the ACS database. (I also verified Brookings data and - what do you know? - they were correct.)

Crain's had a small item: http://www.crainscleveland.com/article/20180208/blogs03/151381/educated-millennials-love-boston-and-madison-they-northeast-ohio-too

 

in which they referenced a Brookings study of percentage of the 2016 population with bachelor's degrees in various cities. Cleveland ranked 40th out of 100, with 36.1% baccalaureate holders in the MSA. It seemed ho-hum until I looked up 2011 - it was 27.9%, according to the same Census Bureau ACS database.

 

People leaving the MSA or dying are less educated than those staying/arriving. I guess we knew that; but the rate of increase (30% in five years) is impressive. Demographic data rarely change that much that quickly. I don't know if the region can keep up the pace, but it's a big driver for the changes we are now seeing.

 

Per the Crain's article, that's the share just of millennials with degrees, no?

Per the Crain's article, that's the share just of millennials with degrees, no?

 

That's what Crain's called it. The database category is "age 25-34".

There's usually a few out-of-state license plates in the University Circle/Little Italy area of Cleveland, what with Case Western Reserve University and two fast-growing hospitals (Cleveland Clinic and University Hospital) nearby. But now there's also booming biotech and other technology businesses. In the past 10 years, 40,000 new jobs have been created in University Circle. And it's drawing workers from all over the country and even the world. Parked on area streets are cars from all over, especially eastern states. Just on Murray Hill Road, half of the parked cars are from states other than Ohio. Go see it for yourself. Until then, here's a 1-minute sampling...

 

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10209389320204836&id=1679206713

Also anecdotally, but on Reddit and other websites I’ve definitely seen a lot more people from the northeast expressing interest in moving to Cleveland/Akron, or Ohio in general. West coasters still seem to be looking primarily at Arizona and Austin or Dallas when they’re trying to get out of their high priced metros.

Lol, ever hear of a dashcam? They're wonderful to have...

Lol, ever hear of a dashcam? They're wonderful to have...

 

LOL, Yes, and no I'm not going to spend all that money to use it once every 20 years.

^KJP--that fb video wasn't watchable---you were driving way to fast for one to really see each license plate!

^KJP--that fb video wasn't watchable---you were driving way to fast for one to really see each license plate!

 

Understood. Sometimes we do the best we can.

"When you try your best but you don't succeed..."

 

I was doing some digging around to see if I could get any additional benefits from Ohio Universities as a transfer student from CSU. Well I couldn't really find any, but I did find this:

 

 

 

This came off of Ohio State's Faculty page at: https://cityextension.osu.edu/resources-0/your-cityregion

It shows statewide and trans-state CSA regions which I thought was quite interesting to include.

 

I wonder why they included Pittsburgh and Charleston MSA's. Based on the map it looks like don't include any land in Ohio.

Because those MSAs are part of CSAs that do include Ohio counties.

I was always curious as to why the Youngstown-Boardman-Warren MSA wasn't apart of the Cleveland-Akron-Canton CSA

I was always curious as to why the Youngstown-Boardman-Warren MSA wasn't apart of the Cleveland-Akron-Canton CSA

 

I believe CSAs consist of MSAs which have at least a 15% employment interchange. Youngstown must not meet that cut off.

I think I tend to look at this from the perspective of someone living in the core, whereas as lot of Clevelanders dead-set on making these arguments for some reason look at it from the perspective of those living way on the outskirts of Cleveland. There are far fewer people living in Twinsburg than near Downtown Cleveland, so to me, which-ever major city those in the exurbs commute to is pretty irrelevant. If you live anywhere near downtown Cleveland, you'd be pretty crazy to commute to Youngstown. Akron, for that matter. Have fun spending two hours each day driving to work. This isn't Los Angeles; Ohio has regular cities and regular gaps between them. NEO isn't some anomaly. The tolerance for driving time, even in Cleveland, is pretty low. The fact that you guys actually have rail, known as the "Rapid" of all things, should help solidify my argument.

422 between Warren and Cleveland sees a lot of commuter traffic.  Sometimes there are even rush hour backups in Amish country.

There are far fewer people living in Twinsburg than near Downtown Cleveland, so to me, which-ever major city those in the exurbs commute to is pretty irrelevant.

 

In just the 7 southeastern outer suburbs (Twinsburg, Aurora, Bainbridge, Solon, Macedonia, Streetsboro, and Hudson) there are over 125,000 people.  It definitely matters to the Cleveland metro if they are commuting to Cleveland or not.  There are many more than that if you "move in" another level to include Sagamore Hills, Walton Hills, Oakwood, Bentleyville, Northfield, Reminderville, Chagrin Falls, etc, which I'd assume you still consider to be the outer edge of the suburbs.

I'm sorry, I just think NEO is a sprawly mess just like Cincinnati-Dayton with lengthy gaps between major nodes. I don't think you'll ever convince me that Cleveland-Akron or Cleveland-Youngstown has some sort of strong symbiotic relationship.

 

Instead of promoting the idea that Cleveland and Akron or even Youngstown are part of the same area, people should be promoting smart boundaries and smaller commutes. Compact urban form is always better and more efficient. It's ridiculous, the notion of driving an hour to work or driving an hour anywhere on a regular basis.

I'm sorry, I just think NEO is a sprawly mess just like Cincinnati-Dayton with lengthy gaps between major nodes. I don't think you'll ever convince me that Cleveland-Akron or Cleveland-Youngstown has some sort of strong symbiotic relationship.

 

Instead of promoting the idea that Cleveland and Akron or even Youngstown are part of the same area, people should be promoting smart boundaries and smaller commutes. Compact urban form is always better and more efficient. It's ridiculous, the notion of driving an hour to work or driving an hour anywhere on a regular basis.

 

Do you live here or just trolling here? 

 

I personally know dozens of people that commute either way, including many in Twinsburg who work in either Akron or Cleveland!

It's not always a choice.  I agree about promoting compact urban forms but some of this is a function of smaller cities losing their employment bases.  In that regard Warren is probably even worse off than its population losses indicate.  Not everyone can just up and move as soon as they're forced to take a job that might be two hours away.

I'm not trolling, just expressing my opinion. I just don't get how Cleveland and Akron or Cleveland and Youngstown could have such a relationship. I no longer live in Cleveland but I lived there for a couple years until recently. I don't doubt you know many people who commute either way but that's pretty insane to me. I definitely wouldn't do it, unless a job in Akron managed to pay way, way better.

I'm sorry, I just think NEO is a sprawly mess just like Cincinnati-Dayton with lengthy gaps between major nodes. I don't think you'll ever convince me that Cleveland-Akron or Cleveland-Youngstown has some sort of strong symbiotic relationship.

 

Instead of promoting the idea that Cleveland and Akron or even Youngstown are part of the same area, people should be promoting smart boundaries and smaller commutes. Compact urban form is always better and more efficient. It's ridiculous, the notion of driving an hour to work or driving an hour anywhere on a regular basis.

 

Using your logic,  then just use the county or, actually a city's borders.  For example, what's Columbus strong symbiotic connection with Athens in Hocking County or Cincinnati with Brooksville KY in Bracken County for examples?

 

Unfortunately the utopian solution you provide is misplaced in the U.S.  What's ridiculous for you isn't necessarily ridiculous for others.

I was always curious as to why the Youngstown-Boardman-Warren MSA wasn't apart of the Cleveland-Akron-Canton CSA

422 between Warren and Cleveland sees a lot of commuter traffic.  Sometimes there are even rush hour backups in Amish country.

I was always curious as to why the Youngstown-Boardman-Warren MSA wasn't apart of the Cleveland-Akron-Canton CSA

 

This doesn't really make much sense.  If you're thinking along those lines, you could add Youngstown/Warren to Pittsburgh's CSA, too.  CSAs normally look at traffic patterns and other economic linkages.  I don't really understand why Canton is a part of Cleveland's CSA, but Akron/Canton make sense.  Travel between Akron and Canton and it is a continuous stream of traffic on 77.  Same goes with Cleveland and Akron.  But Youngstown is its own CSA for a reason.  It has little ties with both Cleveland and Pittsburgh in regards to commuting patterns, although some do exist obviously.  Pittsburgh's MSA is a lot like Columbus', you have the city and a whole lot of nothing beyond that. 

422 between Warren and Cleveland sees a lot of commuter traffic.  Sometimes there are even rush hour backups in Amish country.

 

You really only see backups out to about Auburn Township and mainly around La Due Reservoir because it goes from four lanes down to two.

I'm sorry, I just think NEO is a sprawly mess just like Cincinnati-Dayton with lengthy gaps between major nodes. I don't think you'll ever convince me that Cleveland-Akron or Cleveland-Youngstown has some sort of strong symbiotic relationship.

 

Well welcome to the state of Ohio.  Promoting dense urban form was never part of this state's mo.  The state capital isn't exactly the best example of a dense built environment.  But lucky for us, we don't have to convince you of really anything when it comes to NEO.  You will find plenty of people in both Cleveland's southern suburbs and Akron's northern suburbs that commute back and forth daily.

Instead of promoting the idea that Cleveland and Akron or even Youngstown are part of the same area, people should be promoting smart boundaries and smaller commutes.

 

I'm not promoting anything, but the way these things are measured has real affects, whether it be perception or government money.  I'm not even trying to say Cleveland and Akron necessarily should be in the same MSA, but that the way it is calculated greatly shortchanges Cleveland's MSA population numbers because there are cities inside of the Akron MSA which are clearly Cleveland suburbs, while the reverse is not true.

I produced this map about a decade ago based on 2000 inter-county commuting data to demonstrate the potential of regional rail services. But for our discussion purposes here, it is a commonly known fact in planning circles that no two Ohio counties have more commuting between them then Cuyahoga and Summit. BTW, the 3,100 workday one-way commute trips from the Youngstown area to Cuyahoga County are from both Trumbull AND Mahoning counties. About 15 percent of the inter-county work trips into Cuyahoga County were bound for Cleveland's central business district (or 20 percent for Pittsburgh's CBD).

Instead of promoting the idea that Cleveland and Akron or even Youngstown are part of the same area, people should be promoting smart boundaries and smaller commutes.

 

I'm not promoting anything, but the way these things are measured has real affects, whether it be perception or government money.  I'm not even trying to say Cleveland and Akron necessarily should be in the same MSA, but that the way it is calculated greatly shortchanges Cleveland's MSA population numbers because there are cities inside of the Akron MSA which are clearly Cleveland suburbs, while the reverse is not true.

 

Ironically enough, all the management in my business unit at Parker Hannifin HQ live in either Twinsburg or Macedonia (Summit County).... a 20-25 minutes commute.  While we have other people on my team who live on the westside of Cuyahoga County who all have longer daily commutes.

 

Heck our CEO, Tom Williams, lives in Hudson. 

 

I bet all the large companies along I-271 (Eaton Corp, Progressive Insurance, Parker Hannifin....plus Ahuja UH Medical Center/Cleveland Clinic Hillcrest) have a decent number of employees commuting into the county each day. 

I'm not trolling, just expressing my opinion. I just don't get how Cleveland and Akron or Cleveland and Youngstown could have such a relationship. I no longer live in Cleveland but I lived there for a couple years until recently. I don't doubt you know many people who commute either way but that's pretty insane to me. I definitely wouldn't do it, unless a job in Akron managed to pay way, way better.

Downtown Akron to downtown Cleveland is 48 minutes driving legally. If one can say that Morrow County (two counties away and about 40 minutes) is Columbus MSA then it's not really a stretch for Summit County and Cuyahoga County (one county away) are in the same. Honestly, it's just ignorant to say it isn't.

New population estimates out. Cleveland still at #51 in the USA, right behind Wichita, KS.

^That's funny :-D

 

With all seriousness though, much of the east-side is still in never ending free-fall.  It is both amazing and depressing to see the amount of abandonment spread across the east-side, creeping into areas which were stable for a very long time. 

Correction -- the abandonment is being PULLED into stable areas by the ever-spreading outward urban fringe that is duplicating older, existing housing and businesses. A new house or business in Chesterland causes a house or business in Cleveland or East Cleveland to be abandoned. Not directly, of course. But by urban hopscotch -- especially when it comes to residential. The Chesterland house is filled by someone moving from a Mayfield Heights or Beachwood house which is being filled by someone moving from Cleveland Heights or Shaker Heights which is being filled by someone from the inner city/East Cleveland and that house is abandoned. In a no-growth metro area, new buildings will replace existing buildings. Unfortunately sprawl and abandonment will never stop until we decide to replace/rebuild obsolete structures with contemporary facilities within the same neighborhoods.

 

The only reason why this is slowing down is because exurban areas are enforcing minimum lot sizes which restrict the population growth. And, it is slowed by the fact that Cleveland leads the metro area in new housing starts each year for more than a decade. But to make a difference, it can't just lead. It has to dominate the new housing starts by having more of them and the suburbs having less of them. We also have to set aside and clean up land for new employers because, if employers keep locating at the urban fringe, the incentive for residents to locate there will be strengthened.

I may have mentioned this elsewhere at some point, but I've always thought it was somewhat interesting/unique how Cleveland's sprawl dynamics played out in their traditionally-wealthy suburbs relative to other cities in the state. Down in Dayton, the "nicest" neighborhoods all border the city of Oakwood, with that city essentially helping keep the bordering Dayton neighborhoods relatively stable. This dynamic doesn't quite play out the same in Cincinnati, but most of the wealthiest neighborhoods have a very strong demarcation line between them and any less-desirable area. That is, the blight tends to not creep over the "line in the sand". In Cleveland, it seems, the blight of the collapsing inner-cities ends up sucking the life out of the adjacent "nice" communities, as seen along the borders of CH and Shaker. I don't have a good answer on why it plays out like this.

Correction -- the abandonment is being PULLED into stable areas by the ever-spreading outward urban fringe that is duplicating older, existing housing and businesses. A new house or business in Chesterland causes a house or business in Cleveland or East Cleveland to be abandoned. Not directly, of course. But by urban hopscotch -- especially when it comes to residential. The Chesterland house is filled by someone moving from a Mayfield Heights or Beachwood house which is being filled by someone moving from Cleveland Heights or Shaker Heights which is being filled by someone from the inner city/East Cleveland and that house is abandoned. In a no-growth metro area, new buildings will replace existing buildings. Unfortunately sprawl and abandonment will never stop until we decide to replace/rebuild obsolete structures with contemporary facilities within the same neighborhoods.

 

The only reason why this is slowing down is because exurban areas are enforcing minimum lot sizes which restrict the population growth. And, it is slowed by the fact that Cleveland leads the metro area in new housing starts each year for more than a decade. But to make a difference, it can't just lead. It has to dominate the new housing starts by having more of them and the suburbs having less of them. We also have to set aside and clean up land for new employers because, if employers keep locating at the urban fringe, the incentive for residents to locate there will be strengthened.

 

What are the stats regarding new housing in Cleveland vs suburban areas? At least Cleveland is growing in places to offset the loss in other parts. It looks like the biggest decline in Cuyahoga County is outside of Cleveland, right?

The PD states that the City lost about 250 residents last year. That's basically zero. I predict a small growth in the City population next year: for the first time in 95% of forumers' lives.