1 minute ago, Clefan98 said:

 

One example out of many:

https://fox8.com/2019/01/25/radio-host-geraldo-rivera-buying-drinks-for-furloughed-workers-at-cleveland-bar/

That is a nice gesture, but there is no price tag.  Picking up a bar tab doesn't equate to him spending a lot of "$$$" in Cleveland.

^ That's why I said "one out of many". He's at the Harbor Inn every Wednesday afternoon. If you're so concerned about how he spends his time and money in the city, go ask him. 

Edited December 9, 20195 yr by Clefan98

42 minutes ago, MyTwoSense said:

Please give examples or a source.  Not trying to be an ass, but that is easy to write without any context.

 

 

your friend google:

https://fox8.com/2019/01/25/radio-host-geraldo-rivera-buying-drinks-for-furloughed-workers-at-cleveland-bar/

 

 

edit: dubz!

Edited December 9, 20195 yr by mrnyc

Just now, mrnyc said:

 

 

your friend google:

https://fox8.com/2019/01/25/radio-host-geraldo-rivera-buying-drinks-for-furloughed-workers-at-cleveland-bar/

ummm....we've already discussed this "example".

 

Keep up, Boo.

 

31 minutes ago, Clefan98 said:

^ That's why I said "one out of many". He's at the Harbor Inn every Wednesday afternoon. If you're so concerned about how he spends his time and money in the city, go ask him. 

I'm not concerned, I Yes I could walk over to his crib and ask.

 

Again, my intent was to gain context, on your posts, not dispute how you feel.

22 minutes ago, MyTwoSense said:

ummm....we've already discussed this "example".

 

Keep up, Boo.

 

I'm not concerned, I Yes I could walk over to his crib and ask.

 

Again, my intent was to gain context, on your posts, not dispute how you feel.

 

I never posted how I felt about Geraldo. I just said he spends time and money in Cleveland proper. Nothing more, nothing less should be taken from my comments.

Edited December 9, 20195 yr by Clefan98

9 hours ago, KFM44107 said:

I never said it did. But it does equate to higher tax revenue. 

 

Bringing the discussion back on topic...this recent study regarding migration patterns illustrates what KFM44107 and others have said to be 100% true:

 

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/91fb/80824b49d9e8d4d86b1f2bbb1f3a20d9be40.pdf

3 hours ago, Clefan98 said:

 

Bringing the discussion back on topic...this recent study regarding migration patterns illustrates what KFM44107 and others have said to be 100% true:

 

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/91fb/80824b49d9e8d4d86b1f2bbb1f3a20d9be40.pdf

Richie's report was what I was alluding to when I made that comment. 

  

22 hours ago, mrnyc said:

 

edit: dubz!

 

22 hours ago, MyTwoSense said:

ummm....we've already discussed this "example".

 

Keep up, Boo.

 

 

 

i was -- lo ves papi chulo -- doan let me cash you cherry pickin posts!

New Diversity study out looking at US cities, comparing 2010 and 2018. Most cities, Cleveland included, have become more diverse.  Interestingly Dallas, Houston, Miami, LA, and Chicago are LESS diverse than before.

 

"In 2010, there was a 61.9% chance that two people randomly chosen from Cleveland were of a different race or ethnicity."

"In 2018, there was a 67.1% chance that two people randomly chosen from Cleveland were of a different race or ethnicity." 

 

Philly for comparison:

In 2010, there was a 68.0% chance that two people randomly chosen from Philadelphia were of a different race or ethnicity.

In 2018, there was a 71.0% chance that two people randomly chosen from Philadelphia were of a different race or ethnicity. 

 

Back to Cleveland:

From 2010 to 2018, the diversity index in Cleveland grew by 5.21%.
 
Change in Population by Race and Ethnic Group
White 7.0%

Black -14.1%

Asian 57.0%

American Indian 48.3%

Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander 107.5%

Other Race -37.8%

Multiple Races 74.7%

Hispanic 19.2%

Non-Hispanic -5.8%

 

According to them, we doubled our population of Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islanders.

 

Nice interactive, graphic map:

 

https://www.usnews.com/news/cities/articles/2020-01-22/americas-cities-are-becoming-more-diverse-new-analysis-shows

57% increase in Asian population in the city in 8 years?  I know it wasn't starting from a big number, but that's a huge increase.  Also notable that Cleveland was near the top of the list for cities that have become more diverse in this time frame.  

^Maybe 57%. Note that their data is based on US Census Bureau numbers, which for 2018 are only estimates. But I think there is definitely an increase of some amount---I've noticed more Indians around CSU---and perhaps more east Asians in and around Asiatown.

The losses in the Black population is the reason why the city will not grow in any substantial way in the foreseeable future. I truly don't see (as someone that lives on the East side in the predominantly black neighborhoods) making a true effort to slow it. Circle North is not it btw. 

Speaking of growth though. According to this chart, Cleveland has only been shrinking for 5-6 years ??.

Edited January 28, 20205 yr by MyPhoneDead
I forgot the chart lol

Quote

KJP, Idk what estimates you have been looking at, but Cleveland proper population continues to decrease by an average of about 1000 residents each year, so the city is still shrinking. I realize college educated people are moving into some neighborhoods in Cleveland proper, but besides downtown, Ohio City and Tremont continue to experience a net migration loss this decade. And it does not offset the population loss in the rest of Cleveland proper and now the inner ring suburbs and Cuyahoga County. The exurbs in Geauga, Medina, Lorain, and Lake counties continue to increase at a rate greater than Cuyahoga. The wealth of the residents moving in doesn't predict if attendance will go up. We need density in the city and inner ring suburbs, except that density is decreasing each year.

 

This is not sustainable for a city with 3 teams. Everyone in sports media knows this and has been predicting a team will leave the last 5 years. Unfortunately, the Indians are the likely one out based on attendance and fan following in this city.

 

@AsDustinFoxWouldSay I'm basing it the insights of the region's most learned housing and population, Tom Bier, who is paying attention to the Fifth Migration and who I quoted in my article at:

 

Cleveland ended the decade with a boom, and it's showing

https://neo-trans.blogspot.com/2019/12/cleveland-got-lot-wealthier-in-just-3.html

 

Specifically, Bier said: "People will continue to move out -- which is normal, just as people move from suburb to suburb -- but probably within a few years movers-in will exceed movers-out," Bier wrote. "Then, after 70 years of loss, the corner finally will have been turned as growth takes hold."

 

Probably because the information didn't serve your needs, you also overlooked my comment in the Progressive Field thread that Cleveland's wealth has increased significantly in the last four years even as Cleveland's population has slightly decreased. I noted those statistics in my article as well.

 

With past generations, the increased wealth would likely have been more important to the success of local professional sports teams. But that may not be the case with young professionals who seem less willing to attend games than older generations. They seem more interested in spending their money on participatory sports and recreation which is less expensive, more sociable and leads to good health. That is borne out in the Indians' high TV ratings but low attendance figures. So perhaps the long-term sustainability of pro sports in all but the largest metro areas is facing a big challenge except for perhaps soccer which is now the third- or fourth-most popular pro sport in the USA.

 

Lastly, you also overlooked the fact that within an hour's drive of Progressive Field, Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse and First Energy Stadium is the population equivalent of the entire states of Oregon or Oklahoma. Indeed, Northeast Ohio has a population greater than that of 21 states.

Hey group - couldn't find a "Cleveland housing" thread, but I had a question.

 

Last time I was home over Christmas, people were telling me the West side housing market was on fire.  I was told everyone was bidding more than asking price in order to get a house for sure in Lakewood, and it was beginning in West Park, and other West side neighborhoods.

 

Do I have this right?

^Pretty much, yes. It varies depending on the condition of the home, but a fairly move-in ready house in most west side neighborhoods will receive multiple offers.

I love Cleveland, but despise the municipal/political fragmentation. It lends to such a misleading representation of metropolitan region.  How would you go about measuring the population within a 50 mile radius of Public Square? My estimate would be 3 million. 

 

Population

 (2016)

 • Urban1,780,673 (25th)

 • MSA2,058,844 (33rd)

 • CSA3,515,646 (15th)

Edited March 11, 20205 yr by BTremont

2 hours ago, BTremont said:

I love Cleveland, but despise the municipal/political fragmentation. It lends to such a misleading representation of metropolitan region.  How would you go about measuring the population within a 50 mile radius of Public Square? My estimate would be 3 million. 

 

Population

 (2016)

 • Urban1,780,673 (25th)

 • MSA2,058,844 (33rd)

 • CSA3,515,646 (15th)

 

It is by far the preference of the people who live in the region.  To put it bluntly, people in Solon do not trust the people of Cleveland to select their municipal leadership.   People in the borderlands (the Nordonia-Twinsburg area) trust neither Akron nor Cleveland's

2 hours ago, BTremont said:

I love Cleveland, but despise the municipal/political fragmentation. It lends to such a misleading representation of metropolitan region.  How would you go about measuring the population within a 50 mile radius of Public Square? My estimate would be 3 million. 

 

Population

 (2016)

 • Urban1,780,673 (25th)

 • MSA2,058,844 (33rd)

 • CSA3,515,646 (15th)

50 mile radius from Public Square gives you 3,255,388.

2 hours ago, E Rocc said:

 

It is by far the preference of the people who live in the region.  To put it bluntly, people in Solon do not trust the people of Cleveland to select their municipal leadership.   People in the borderlands (the Nordonia-Twinsburg area) trust neither Akron nor Cleveland's

 

I haven't met all of the people in Solon and neither have you. They don't exist of a single mind or belief system -- anymore than the people of Cleveland do, even though I'm sure that many of them wouldn't trust the people of Solon to choose their leadership either given all of the abuse they've endured over the decades. I would rather try to find things that we have in common and highlight those, than seek out the things that separate us and use those to keep us apart only to benefit a few. The latter approach is what is hurting this country, not just Greater Cleveland. Unless you somehow believe we're stronger as a metro area and as a country by being set against each other?

3 hours ago, E Rocc said:

 

It is by far the preference of the people who live in the region.  To put it bluntly, people in Solon do not trust the people of Cleveland to select their municipal leadership.   People in the borderlands (the Nordonia-Twinsburg area) trust neither Akron nor Cleveland's

 

 

no, its the historic legacy. it was fine to form your own suburb back when it was farm and forest. 

 

these days, by far the major preference of people without that legacy is consolidation. 

 

so ne ohio can either continue to meet, discuss and consolidate what they can agree to consolidate, or continue to fund duplicate services and waste money that could be spent elsewhere.

 

continue do nothing because that's how it is is or is perceived to be is not a wise option.

For fun I was looking at Cuyahoga County population changes by age bracket between April, 2010 (census data) and July 1, 2018 (estimates), during which period the county population delines by about 37,000 people.

 

The two groups account for the whole decline: children from birth to 19 (minus 39,000, 29,000 of which were age 10-19) and (their parents?) adults aged 40-54 (minus 58,000). All other age brackets stayed about the same or grew. The age group 20-39 grew by 20,000 and 60-74 grew by 45,000. So it's fair to say the county is attracting some young folks and not driving out all the old crumblies.

 

This would seem to point to two chief causes: job losses early in the decade and poor public schools. I think the job loss problem is being fixed. The school problem is much harder.

 

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=PEP_2018_PEPAGESEX&prodType=table

Edited March 13, 20205 yr by Dougal

NOACA is continuing discussions on merging the Cleveland, Akron and Canton areas into a single MSA with a population over 3 million residents.

 

They site that a major reason would raise the region's profile and give it more access to funding. 

 

Mayor of Akron is against it.

 

https://www.cleveland.com/news/2020/04/noaca-launches-regional-discussion-on-merging-metropolitan-statistical-areas-to-boost-neo-in-national-rankings.html

So Akron has a “national stature, prominence and identity” that’s currently working and worth cultivating? Tucked right in the sweet spot between Lakeland/Winter Haven, FL and Des Moines...

Not saying Cleveland’s is any better by the way, but can’t we band together and become something better?

30 minutes ago, w28th said:

So Akron has a “national stature, prominence and identity” that’s currently working and worth cultivating? Tucked right in the sweet spot between Lakeland/Winter Haven, FL and Des Moines...

Not saying Cleveland’s is any better by the way, but can’t we band together and become something better?

 

Cleveland's national stature isn't any better than Akron's?  I have nothing against Akron, but come on.

Right, as I said in the Ohio Population thread, I think Akron's profile is raised by becoming Cleveland-Akron, than just Akron. 

4 hours ago, jam40jeff said:

 

Cleveland's national stature isn't any better than Akron's?  I have nothing against Akron, but come on.

 

Trying to be self deprecating to draw the Akron folks in, my bad.

On 4/26/2020 at 7:33 PM, Mov2Ohio said:

Right, as I said in the Ohio Population thread, I think Akron's profile is raised by becoming Cleveland-Akron, than just Akron. 

I disagree, I think Akrons profile is raised by being Akron/Canton.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/us.census.bureau#!/vizhome/2020CensusSelf-ResponseRankings/RankingsDashboard

 

Looks like the census response rates in Cleveland proper are pretty poor right now. I'm curious, does anyone knows whether poor census response rate is indicative of lower than predicted population or has nothing to do with it?

23 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/us.census.bureau#!/vizhome/2020CensusSelf-ResponseRankings/RankingsDashboard

 

Looks like the census response rates in Cleveland proper are pretty poor right now. I'm curious, does anyone knows whether poor census response rate is indicative of lower than predicted population or has nothing to do with it?

 

 I don't think anyone would know if it's population-specific, but my guess would be more socio-economic in nature.  Lack of quality internet, awareness, priority, plus no "feet on the streets" who traditionally would go door-to-door due to COVID-19 to properly document.  

 

I think many Clevelanders and Ohioans census fears are coming true--there are very high chance of an under count.   Just hoping it doesn't affect us disproportionally against the rest of the country.  (EDIT: Ohio's responses are above the national average, so that's good to see) 

Edited May 12, 20205 yr by MuRrAy HiLL

3 hours ago, LlamaLawyer said:

... I'm curious, does anyone knows whether poor census response rate is indicative of lower than predicted population or has nothing to do with it?

 

According to people at the Commerce Dept., it's too soon to tell.  The self-response rate so far is ahead of worst-case projections but not quite as high as hoped, with Internet doing better than expected and the telephone option being chosed by next to nobody (about 1% versus an expected 7%).  The manual follow-up effort is supposed to fill in the gaps, but this year's manual follow-up is not designed to capture unexpected additions to the census tract data - so there is that bit of 'leakage'. OTOH, the census tract data are more accurate than ever, so there shouldn't be much to miss. 

 

Urban areas are becoming harder and harder to canvass with in-person (physical or telephonic) contact, so urban undercounts are to be expected; the hope is the undercount will be small.

Edited May 12, 20205 yr by Dougal
missing apostrophe

City population Estimates for 2019 are out. The Census Bureau has the city STILL losing people---consistently less than 1% per year.

 

 

It also puts Cuyahoga County at:

 

1,235,072 down 0.5% from 1,241,718 in 2018.  

 

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/data/tables.html

Edited May 22, 20205 yr by Pugu

For about the last 20 years, we've been hearing that the numbers will soon start turning around.  How much longer until it really happens?

Remember, these are only estimates. I don't know the Census Bureau's methodology. Do they know about all the new housing units Downtown, University Circle, and the Near West Side? or do they simply follow past trends and maybe employment numbers? Not sure. Either way, hopefully they are very wrong---and that we see the city at 450,000 or so at the 2020 Census.

 

 

 

Edited May 22, 20205 yr by Pugu

2 minutes ago, Pugu said:

Remember, these are only estimates. I don't know the Census Bureau's methodology. 

 

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/methodology.html

28 minutes ago, Pugu said:

Remember, these are only estimates. I don't know the Census Bureau's methodology. Do they know about all the new housing units Downtown, University Circle, and the Near West Side? or do they simply follow past trends and maybe employment numbers? Not sure. Either way, hopefully they are very wrong---and that we see the city at 450,000 or so at the 2020 Census.

 

 

 

 

I doubt the city's population has increased by over 50,000 since the last census.  Even with the growth in the typical neighborhoods we all know of, much of the east-side has been in free fall for decades.  That decline has only gotten worse over the past 10 years.  There are fields now where neighborhoods once stood in places like Kinsman/E. 55th.  There are empty fields now lining St. Clair in Glenville and Collinwood.  There's empty lot after empty lot along many residential streets on the East-Side where your typical Cleveland Double once stood.  The density is gone and much of it will need to be replaced in more than just the inner West-Side and Little Italy. 

 

My hope is that the gains in the few neighborhoods where growth is apparent will offset the losses experienced in the east, and that the city might actually see a small amount of growth for this census.  This has been going on for the last 70 years now; but I think the local economy has finally restructured itself out of the over reliance on manufacturing, just based on the numbers (at or below 12% of the total economy for the metro; compared to over 30% in the 80s).  With the economy growing in health and education there will come more jobs and more people.  That's what's happening now, but it will take time.

41 minutes ago, Pugu said:

Remember, these are only estimates. I don't know the Census Bureau's methodology. Do they know about all the new housing units Downtown, University Circle, and the Near West Side? or do they simply follow past trends and maybe employment numbers? Not sure. Either way, hopefully they are very wrong---and that we see the city at 450,000 or so at the 2020 Census.

 

 

 

The city won’t grow while the region is shrinking. As long as the Cleveland metro lags in immigration and jobs the city won’t see significant growth. There has been investment in the near west side and downtown, but practically everything south of Carnegie on the east side is in a free fall.

edit:

@Oldmanladyluck sorry for saying the same thing as you at the same time but worse.

Edited May 22, 20205 yr by bumsquare

5 minutes ago, Oldmanladyluck said:

 

I doubt the city's population has increased by over 50,000 since the last census.  Even with the growth in the typical neighborhoods we all know of, much of the east-side has been in free fall for decades.  That decline has only gotten worse over the past 10 years.  There are fields now where neighborhoods once stood in places like Kinsman/E. 55th.  There are empty fields now lining St. Clair in Glenville and Collinwood.  There's empty lot after empty lot along many residential streets on the East-Side where your typical Cleveland Double once stood.  The density is gone and much of it will need to be replaced in more than just the inner West-Side and Little Italy. 

 

My hope is that the gains in the few neighborhoods where growth is apparent will offset the losses experienced in the east, and that the city might actually see a small amount of growth for this census.  This has been going on for the last 70 years now; but I think the local economy has finally restructured itself out of the over reliance on manufacturing, just based on the numbers (at or below 12% of the total economy for the metro; compared to over 30% in the 80s).  With the economy growing in health and education there will come more jobs and more people.  That's what's happening now, but it will take time.

I really hope this is what happens.  I live in Central Ohio, but i am diehard Cleveland fan. I have such fond memories as a kid (and even now) making the trip up to Cleveland for Browns and Indians games.  I think the really good news this state needs is for Cleveland to finally break through and start adding population.  Columbus and Cincinnati are both there and it would be absolutely amazing if we could get Cleveland there.  If/when that happens, i think the messaging and marketing for this state can take off and see a resurgence in prominence.  I'm always pulling for Cleveland. Hopefully once the new Sherwin-Williams place is done...things really take off!!!

57 minutes ago, skiwest said:

For about the last 20 years, we've been hearing that the numbers will soon start turning around.  How much longer until it really happens?

 

True city-wide growth is projected to begin sometime between 2024 - 2030. It can be deceiving because we're seeing certain parts of the city grow faster than anywhere in the state of Ohio. The downside is there are still large sections of neighborhoods losing population, though at a slower rate. The growth should finally start to outweigh the loss in ~ 2026.

Edited May 22, 20205 yr by Clefan98

56 minutes ago, skiwest said:

For about the last 20 years, we've been hearing that the numbers will soon start turning around.  How much longer until it really happens?

I was hopeful that when construction numbers began consistently exceeding tear-downs the population would turn around.  BUT ... tear-downs are not the same as abandonments, which are still high. Factor in declining family size, and the recent growth in OC, UC, and downtown still doesn't equal net growth.

 

For now, I think the region needs to be happy with the outcome of the demographic churn accompanying a near static population: a more educated, higher-earing, younger population is driving the recent regional economic improvements.

5 minutes ago, Dougal said:

I was hopeful that when construction numbers began consistently exceeding tear-downs the population would turn around.  BUT ... tear-downs are not the same as abandonments, which are still high. Factor in declining family size, and the recent growth in OC, UC, and downtown still doesn't equal net growth.

 

For now, I think the region needs to be happy with the outcome of the demographic churn accompanying a near static population: a more educated, higher-earing, younger population is driving the recent regional economic improvements.

Agreed. But it's not just those neighborhoods anymore. You have apartment projects and townhome projects in Hough, Glenville, Fairfax, UC, Little Italy, and even Larchmere. Some of those projects are big and will help defray losses in those neighborhoods. 

We'd be seeing the city-wide growth even sooner, or it could be happening already, if there wasn't such an enormous level of disparity between opportunities for people in different parts of the metro area.  As a city we are paying the price of decades of segregation and racism.  A lot of the growth in the near-west, UC, downtown, etc. is people who benefited and are now moving back into the city (children of suburban families, downsizers, or people moving back to the city in their 30s from other metros).  This sort of trend is going to help broaden the tax base in the city, improve the schools, improve infrastructure, and encourage investment city-wide, and I think we are starting to see more of the broader growth spread into those areas and for benefits of investment to be felt city-wide, but it takes time to fix decades of purposeful neglect.

2 minutes ago, KFM44107 said:

Agreed. But it's not just those neighborhoods anymore. You have apartment projects and townhome projects in Hough, Glenville, Fairfax, UC, Little Italy, and even Larchmere. Some of those projects are big and will help defray losses in those neighborhoods. 

 

You're absolutely right and I think Hough will be the next hot spot.  I just didn't want a long list to take away from my point that the demographic 'quality' gains are enough for now to cause a huge economic gain for the area (while hoping that the virus disruption is fleeting). 

^ Yes, while the population remains stagnant that doesn't take into account the fact that the numbers are churning and the churn is replacing a poorer group with a wealthier group. Say what you will about economic displacement/gentrification but in one of the poorer cities in the US those changes benefit the city in a number of ways i.e. more tax dollars to the city, more $ spent locally, probably greater citizen participation in the neighborhood. 

 

And as a card carrying liberal I will say the new residents add to diversity because the old CLE had a greater percentage of minorities as well as poorer people. Diversity is good. Economic diversity is good. So is Ethnographic diversity. We need it all. New energy, new ideas, new life and yes, new money too. 

Another important thing in this discussion is that the average size household is still declining.  There could be more overall households and still less overall people.  I think this is one of the biggest factors in there still being a population decline.  

I just mentioned this in the Ohio population thread, but Ohio City and Tremont have not been exploding in population in recent years except perhaps the last two or three. The decline in household size hadn't been offset enough by new units. One or two person households of high earners moving in and replacing a working class nuclear family or multi-generational home, while good for the city budget are not good in the census numbers. I think only now with the explosion in multi-family construction in those neighborhoods will be be seeing true growth. Downtown and UC have exploded in population because there has been pretty much nothing but new multi family construction. I imagine Little Italy has been similar to the near west side with chopped up 4 unit houses being rehabbed into SFHs.

On 5/22/2020 at 2:15 PM, PoshSteve said:

I just mentioned this in the Ohio population thread, but Ohio City and Tremont have not been exploding in population in recent years except perhaps the last two or three. The decline in household size hadn't been offset enough by new units. One or two person households of high earners moving in and replacing a working class nuclear family or multi-generational home, while good for the city budget are not good in the census numbers. I think only now with the explosion in multi-family construction in those neighborhoods will be be seeing true growth. Downtown and UC have exploded in population because there has been pretty much nothing but new multi family construction. I imagine Little Italy has been similar to the near west side with chopped up 4 unit houses being rehabbed into SFHs.

Ya. That type of density is what it's going to take to move the population needle. However the per capita income is definitely up. 

Edited May 25, 20205 yr by KFM44107

 

1 hour ago, KJP said:

 

Seems to me there’s a big gap in that analysis, namely it doesn’t look at tracts that were between 20% and 30% poverty and are no longer in that range. If you look even at the east coast cities there aren’t a lot of tracts that met the narrow definition. Maybe 8 tracts in DC, a few less in Baltimore, and only 1 in Pittsburgh.

 

Edit: Also seems arbitrary to pick 1980 as a baseline. Lots of the tracts on the west side increased their poverty rates from 1980-2020 but have declined since 2010 or even 2000 according to their data.

Edited May 28, 20205 yr by bumsquare

Sometimes a study can take too long a of a view.  Looking at 2000-2020 would be more illuminating than 1980-2020 because the declines of the 80's and 90's were catastrophic across so much of the city.