June 5, 20205 yr The High Poverty Map is cool, but I'm not sure what useful story it tells. If you look at Cleveland in isolation it looks bad, but if you compare to most other cities, you simply realize that most cities have not reduced poverty since 1980 in a way that would show up on this map. Cleveland at least has a few "blue" areas. Nashville doesn't even have any! Nashville! Neither does Phoenix! So I'm not sure what the map has to do with population or economic growth other than perhaps to suggest the U.S. as a whole is doing a poor job of raising people in urban areas out of poverty.
June 19, 20204 yr https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/oh_cleveland_msa.htm BLS data shows Cleveland-Elyria labor force way up in May. In fact, it appears to be the largest monthly labor force increase on record (back to 1990). It obviously also comes on the heels of a massive labor force loss, but it's good to see a quick, complete rebound. The total number is also the highest May labor force since 2010 other than 2017, which barely eeks out May 2020. Not sure what you can read into all these numbers, but they strike me as more positive than negative. On a negative note (but one less closely related to population trends), unemployment is well above the national average.
June 19, 20204 yr Its a good sign the total non-farm jobs numbers is increasing too. Not a huge amount, but May was only a partially "open" month. If we see a big jump when June comes out, hopefully back over 1M, I think we can say the economy here is making a good bounce back. Pretty interesting the labor force is increasing, especially at this time. Potentially some good news when it comes to population.
June 19, 20204 yr The economic consequences are just beginning, especially with the virus still raging. Not all of the regained jobs are going to stick around if the economy wallows in the uncertainty of the virus and other issues. People stopped going out back February and early March before any restrictions even existed, and they've not fully returned to normal behavior even without them. It remains to be seen what the long-term consequences of all this are, but it's far, far too early to be thinking this was a few-month blip. Edited June 19, 20204 yr by jonoh81
June 20, 20204 yr 1 hour ago, jonoh81 said: The economic consequences are just beginning, especially with the virus still raging. Not all of the regained jobs are going to stick around if the economy wallows in the uncertainty of the virus and other issues. People stopped going out back February and early March before any restrictions even existed, and they've not fully returned to normal behavior even without them. All people? My family has returned to its normal dining out routine. And most of the restaurants we go to are pretty full, although the seating is modified somewhat to account for social distancing/booth separators/etc with lines of people waiting out the door. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
June 28, 20204 yr I'd post this in the Cleveland Downtown Residences discussion but it's locked. So this is probably the next-best place.... 4 hours ago, KJP said: We've become spoiled in Cleveland and in other cities. Until the 2010s, big new apartment buildings were considered a success if they leased out in two years. Now, after the 2010s, we expect them to lease out in the first year. If the Beacon or (as it relates to this thread) the Lumen don't lease out after two years, then I'll be worried. And if a project already has its financing (such as City Club and a couple of others), I suspect that most of those projects will still go forward. Most of the jobs losses that have occurred so far aren't structural (they're pandemic related) and most of the job additions we've seen in recent months are structural. 3 hours ago, gg707 said: That's a good perspective. Hopefully future financings of buildings use the 2 year horizon and not the 1 year. I worry about more fragile urban housing markets, such as Cleveland, in this downturn. What's also interesting is that some of the non-downtown residential projects are doing pretty well and leasing up at healthy rates, such as Church & State. For that reason, the Nautica/Hingetown projects are still cooking. And the folks building Intro aren't worried. Plus the folks at Stoneleigh seeking to build their project just east of Intro along Lorain are still pressing ahead. Downtown is a different animal and seems to run more on a boom/bust cycle. No Cleveland neighborhood has grown as fast as downtown over an extended period since the southwestern part of West Park/Kamms boomed into the 1960s. There are still some downtown projects about to pop, although they are going after a different market than anything we've seen thus far. Edited June 28, 20204 yr by KJP "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
June 28, 20204 yr On 6/19/2020 at 8:04 PM, KJP said: All people? My family has returned to its normal dining out routine. And most of the restaurants we go to are pretty full, although the seating is modified somewhat to account for social distancing/booth separators/etc with lines of people waiting out the door. What’s killing downtown is the lack of big events to draw in larger crowds.
June 28, 20204 yr The activity that makes downtown really vibrant -- lots of busy offices, sporting events, playhouse square, busy bars -- is different than the things driving development in some of the inner neighborhoods, so I can see how Hingetown is doing great, but downtown buildings are hurting right now. Much of the activity in Ohio City is based on services supporting residents, which can stay above water a little better. If I was renting a unit, I'd certainly rather be in Hingetown than in downtown right now. I love downtown, but it feels very dead because of COVID.
June 28, 20204 yr At this very moment, downtowns in most major American cities are deserted. Until people in this country stop their childish, selfish, "muh freedom" antics, accept the fact that we are in the midst of a global pandemic, and begin to follow public health official recommendations of social distancing/public mask wearing, our economy and that of our CBDs will never fully recover. Even the EU recognizes the risks that US citizens pose on their continent. Edited June 29, 20204 yr by Frmr CLEder
June 28, 20204 yr 2 hours ago, KJP said: There are still some downtown projects about pop, although they are going after a different market than anything we've seen thus far. Hmmm... different than what we've see. Condos? Or Are you referring to the micro units proposed in City Club and Kenect? Or something else entirely? I can't think of any other types we haven't seen built recently.
June 29, 20204 yr To add to the observational, anecdotal license plate data, the near east suburbs (CLE Hts, S Euclid, Univ Hts, etc) have been just crawling with out-of-state plates for the last couple weeks in a way they never have been in my memory (which admittedly only goes back a few years). Lots of New York and Illinois, but you could play the license plate game because they’re from all over. I’ve seen ones you don’t expect to see like Idaho, Arkansas, and New Hampshire. Not sure that any of this is meaningful; just consider it my contribution to the quasi-data garbage heap.
June 29, 20204 yr 1 hour ago, LlamaLawyer said: To add to the observational, anecdotal license plate data, the near east suburbs (CLE Hts, S Euclid, Univ Hts, etc) have been just crawling with out-of-state plates for the last couple weeks in a way they never have been in my memory (which admittedly only goes back a few years). Lots of New York and Illinois, but you could play the license plate game because they’re from all over. I’ve seen ones you don’t expect to see like Idaho, Arkansas, and New Hampshire. Not sure that any of this is meaningful; just consider it my contribution to the quasi-data garbage heap. Seen so many New York license plates in this area as well.
June 29, 20204 yr Saw Nebraska and Iowa plates downtown over the weekend. That was unusual. Black families in both cars. Are there many blacks in those states? And yes, the usual numbers of East Coast cars lately. Although when I see New York cars, they usually have license plate frames indicating dealerships near Buffalo. In the past week I've seen license plate frames for New York City-area dealerships. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
June 29, 20204 yr On 5/28/2020 at 10:59 AM, KJP said: I'm not buying Mr. Welling's "deepening and expansion of poverty" claim. He's only looking at rates, which have bounced around. If you pull actual numbers, the number of people in Cleveland and in poverty has remained pretty close to 130,000 since 2008. In the 2019 estimate, it's 34.6% of 377K or 130K still. The real story is the better-off people moved out, not that the numbers of poor grew. The corollary is nobody has been able to do much about that 130K. Since 2006: Remember: It's the Year of the Snake
July 6, 20204 yr I think the reason the poverty number has been so recalcitrant has been due to the loss of relatively high-paying, low-skilled manufacturing jobs and an inability to replace them with those that provide a living wage.
July 6, 20204 yr 12 minutes ago, Frmr CLEder said: I think the reason the poverty number has been so recalcitrant has been due to the loss of relatively high-paying, low-skilled manufacturing jobs and an inability to replace them with those that provide a living wage. That’s true. The author also cherry-picks 1980 as a starting point for some reason. Obviously there can be multiple trends in a 40 year gap.
July 6, 20204 yr I know that at one time, Republic Steel was a major flats manufacturer and employer. I'm not sure of when they were acquired, but I seem to remember that cheap steel from Asia really accelerated their decline and it may have been around 1980-1985. Edited July 6, 20204 yr by Frmr CLEder
July 6, 20204 yr So I wanted to be up by the lake yesterday and decided to drive up to Cleveland. Grabbed brunch in Ohio City and dessert in Tremont. Wow, holy infill! So much going on. Edgewater was packed and I just loved seeing the diversity and different languages you hear with what I am sure are new residents to the area with all the booming construction. The boats, jet skis and hundreds at the beaches make you appreciate being near a great lake. Took a stroll through the Edgewater neighborhood because the mature trees, beautiful homes and being closer to the lake you clearly feel the temperature change. The license plate game is alive and well in the near west side. You really do see a lot of New York and New Jersey plates with specific dealer plate brackets. I didn't get a chance to head over to Uptown/Little Italy or Cleveland Heights. There's a lot happening and I couldn't see it all in one day.
July 6, 20204 yr I hope you're still in town @MissinOhio and got a chance to see the East Side, even though West is Best! ? "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
July 6, 20204 yr 3 minutes ago, KJP said: I hope you're still in town @MissinOhio and got a chance to see the East Side, even though West is Best! ? That's what's nice being in Youngstown... quick day trips to Cleveland or Pittsburgh. I have always been a fan of the East Side, but I certainly appreciate the West Side and all that it brings to the table. I am just amazed how much Cleveland has changed since I went to CSU in 2010 my freshmen year.
July 6, 20204 yr On 6/29/2020 at 11:10 AM, KJP said: Saw Nebraska and Iowa plates downtown over the weekend. That was unusual. Black families in both cars. Are there many blacks in those states? Only about 3% or 4% in both states, although they could also have just been rental cars.
July 6, 20204 yr 1 hour ago, jam40jeff said: Only about 3% or 4% in both states, although they could also have just been rental cars. As a heads up, not saying this is the case for those particular vehicles as you said families were in them, but using rental cars is a big thing that drug dealers do now as it makes it harder to trace them off a plate and they can switch cars quickly. I run into rental cars all the time, particularly on hit skip accidents and felonious assault shootings where someone was able to get a license plate.
July 6, 20204 yr 26 minutes ago, KFM44107 said: As a heads up, not saying this is the case for those particular vehicles as you said families were in them, but using rental cars is a big thing that drug dealers do now as it makes it harder to trace them off a plate and they can switch cars quickly. I run into rental cars all the time, particularly on hit skip accidents and felonious assault shootings where someone was able to get a license plate. I was just responding to KJP. I didn't see the cars in question or have any comment other than to provide statistics in reply to his question and mention the possibility of a rental car.
July 6, 20204 yr 38 minutes ago, jam40jeff said: I was just responding to KJP. I didn't see the cars in question or have any comment other than to provide statistics in reply to his question and mention the possibility of a rental car. Sorry, meant to quote @KJP in my above quote, not you.
July 10, 20204 yr https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/07/06/about-a-fifth-of-u-s-adults-moved-due-to-covid-19-or-know-someone-who-did/ Not a clue what this means practically, but it’s quite interesting.
July 10, 20204 yr I continue to be amazed at how many out of state license plates there are in Lakewood and the West Side of Cleveland these days. It seems like it's more than I've ever seen before but it could be just confirmation bias. "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
July 10, 20204 yr 30 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/07/06/about-a-fifth-of-u-s-adults-moved-due-to-covid-19-or-know-someone-who-did/ Not a clue what this means practically, but it’s quite interesting. 20% sounds big. But it seems like that includes temporary relocations. Looks like the more useful number to work with is 3: "Among those surveyed in early June, 3% say they themselves moved permanently or temporarily due to the coronavirus pandemic." Would be interesting to see the racial/age/geographic (from where to where) breakdown of this 3%.
July 10, 20204 yr 30 minutes ago, Pugu said: 20% sounds big. But it seems like that includes temporary relocations. Looks like the more useful number to work with is 3: "Among those surveyed in early June, 3% say they themselves moved permanently or temporarily due to the coronavirus pandemic." Would be interesting to see the racial/age/geographic (from where to where) breakdown of this 3%. 3% is still massive. About 9% of people move each year, so if 3% moved due to covid by June (i.e. a 2-3 month window) that means the rate of moving has temporarily more than doubled. Put differently, that 3% that moved is equal to more than the entire population of NYC.
July 10, 20204 yr The headline seems misleading to me. 20% who moved OR know someone who moved will easily be counting the same moves multiple times. From looking more at their data, its 3% who moved, and the biggest age group of movers were 18-29. That isn't surprising at all since colleges shut down and just about all students went home. 23% of people who moved listed that specific reason. I think we are too early to see people actually making permanent moves due to covid. It will probably influence people's choices when thinking about locations when they do move though.
July 11, 20204 yr Does anyone have current population figures for neighborhoods like Ohio City, Detroit Shoreway, Tremont, Little Italy, etc.? Would be interesting to compare to 2010 with all the construction and infill.
July 12, 20204 yr nyc has definitely emptied out. at least downtown around my way. i see moving vans all the time. street parking is plentiful. our building is half empty. all the young people are gone, only old timers left. streetlife and traffic have picked up lately, but nothing like pre-corona.
July 13, 20204 yr That's very interesting, @mrnyc. I might want to quote you for a future article! Meanwhile, we have houses for all you New Yorkers.... "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
July 13, 20204 yr 18 hours ago, mrnyc said: nyc has definitely emptied out. at least downtown around my way. i see moving vans all the time. street parking is plentiful. our building is half empty. all the young people are gone, only old timers left. streetlife and traffic have picked up lately, but nothing like pre-corona. I could see that. The mid 30s I know in the city tell me that quite a few of that age range have left for various places across the country. They don't want to pay NYC rent without the NYC benefits, What remains to be seen is if they go back or find that there are very livable, cheaper places off the coast and end up staying.
July 13, 20204 yr My data is not fully representative since we only become involved with the sale of homes which are vacant and were not owner occupied, but in the last week I've seem homes selling in South Euclid to new owner occupants from Chicago and Nashville, which are both unusual locations. I've also talked to rental owners/managers who have new tenants moving in this month from out of state. I can't say for absolute certain if its an increase from past months/years, but it does feel that way.
July 13, 20204 yr 5 hours ago, viscomi said: I could see that. The mid 30s I know in the city tell me that quite a few of that age range have left for various places across the country. They don't want to pay NYC rent without the NYC benefits, What remains to be seen is if they go back or find that there are very livable, cheaper places off the coast and end up staying. a couple big caveats, one being if in fact there truly is a trend real estate searches are a very weak indicator. also, where ever someone from nyc (or it seems any city) might be moving or looking to move remains urban, not suburban. in other words, people are not abandoning urban areas for the suburbs. thats a myth. the good news about the latter is that means indeed people might be abandoning nyc for cleveland, for example. the bad news is the same trend exists for cleveland and other cities. that is, people might be looking to leave cleveland for another city. in summary it seems its not clear if there is anything here officially trending beyond anecdotal quite yet. so thats a bit of a surprize for me given our building and the west village nyc at least. btw just this morning neighbors who can see into another apt building next to us said the lights are on with many empty apts there too. now i am thinking it might just be our neighborhood, because i was up in wash hts and the bronx today for the first time back for work and it seemed same as ever up there. https://www.curbed.com/2020/7/13/21319909/coronavirus-urban-exodus-cities-moving-suburbs
July 19, 20204 yr https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/oh_cleveland_msa.htm June preliminary BLS data for Cleveland-Elyria is shows big increases again. June civilian labor force is now the highest June number since 2010. If the trend continues, July will be the highest civilian labor force for any month since 2010.
July 23, 20204 yr NYC refugee here. Born and raised in Cleveland but fled New York City finally after many years there. Left on July 1 and adjusting to what is expected to be a short term stay in Cleveland but may be longer in the metro area. We’ll see as I decide if city-urban living is what I want anymore at all. i see the population of CLE may be bottoming out finally but so much of the city is gone now. A different city altogether. Still it’s easy but need a car now. Ugh. Edited July 23, 20204 yr by CLENYC
July 23, 20204 yr 47 minutes ago, CLENYC said: NYC refugee here. Born and raised in Cleveland but fled New York City finally after many years there. Left on July 1 and adjusting to what is expected to be a short term stay in Cleveland but may be longer in the metro area. We’ll see as I decide if city-urban living is what I want anymore at all. i see the population of CLE may be bottoming out finally but so much of the city is gone now. A different city altogether. Still it’s easy but need a car now. Ugh. Welcome to Cleveland! Although it is not in its glory days it is now on the upswing and there is so much more to Cleveland than meets the eyes! Unfortunately you essentially do need a car to live in Cleveland. There are some who do without but most want it.
July 23, 20204 yr 15 minutes ago, cle_guy90 said: Welcome to Cleveland! Although it is not in its glory days it is now on the upswing and there is so much more to Cleveland than meets the eyes! Unfortunately you essentially do need a car to live in Cleveland. There are some who do without but most want it. Thanks! Grew up in the city and have family and friends here so I know the city well obviously and visited regularly while living out of town. Being here 3 weeks solid now has been a bit of an adjustment, the car of course but grew up on using the rapid and buses here. The transit situation has changed here as well. May end up staying in the area but am skittish after living through the fiasco last month and the deteriorating situation in New York but glad to be out of there for sure. Edited July 23, 20204 yr by CLENYC
July 29, 20204 yr Speaking of which... Wednesday, July 29, 2020 Pandemic, family, tech, cost draw new residents to Greater Cleveland License plate watchers in Greater Cleveland are having fun this summer checking out all of the out-of-state plates on the metro area's roads. And there's lots of out-of-state plates to see -- from New York, New Jersey, Illinois, California, plus other states, as well as the usual ones from neighboring Michigan and Pennsylvania. But are the cars and their occupants visiting on summer vacation or are they moving here? While some are likely visiting, those in the real estate business say that their seeing lots of n But are the cars and their occupants visiting on summer vacation or are they moving here? While some are likely visiting, those in the real estate business say that their seeing lots of new arrivals buying houses and renting apartments. MORE http://neo-trans.blogspot.com/2020/07/pandemic-family-tech-cost-draw-new.html?m=1 "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
July 29, 20204 yr 2 hours ago, KJP said: Speaking of which... Wednesday, July 29, 2020 Pandemic, family, tech, cost draw new residents to Greater Cleveland License plate watchers in Greater Cleveland are having fun this summer checking out all of the out-of-state plates on the metro area's roads. And there's lots of out-of-state plates to see -- from New York, New Jersey, Illinois, California, plus other states, as well as the usual ones from neighboring Michigan and Pennsylvania. But are the cars and their occupants visiting on summer vacation or are they moving here? While some are likely visiting, those in the real estate business say that their seeing lots of n But are the cars and their occupants visiting on summer vacation or are they moving here? While some are likely visiting, those in the real estate business say that their seeing lots of new arrivals buying houses and renting apartments. MORE http://neo-trans.blogspot.com/2020/07/pandemic-family-tech-cost-draw-new.html?m=1 Nice article. I was wondering if you could just elaborate a bit. Would you consider the people you discuss in the article and people like CLENYC "snowflakes" for deciding to get away from larger city life? CLENYC "fled New York City finally after many years there" and said that they will have a "short term stay in Cleveland but may be longer in the metro area" since they need to "decide if city-urban living is what I want anymore at all." I'm just curious that, here, you seem to be understanding of people deciding to leave cities for various reasons, but when I mentioned that my friends were considering doing the same in moving from the Chicago metro, you attacked them and called them "rural snowflakes." I'd be interested in hearing your opinion on the differences. Thanks. For reference, here was your other comment: Edited July 29, 20204 yr by TH3BUDDHA
July 29, 20204 yr I guess you don't understand the difference between journalism and opinion-making. I try to keep my opinions out of my articles. Trading an expensive urbanity for an inexpensive one when the opportunity and technology allows isn't snowflaking -- it's smart, especially when my hometown is the destination. But it's apparent that you enjoy trolling, fighting and taking threads off topic. I don't. So that's the extent of my comments here. Edited July 29, 20204 yr by KJP "In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck
July 29, 20204 yr 1 hour ago, KJP said: the difference between journalism and opinion-making That doesn't explain your thumbs up to CLENYC's comments in this thread. They're expressing the same exact things I did in that other thread but not getting any negative responses. But, whatever. ?♂️ 1 hour ago, KJP said: that you enjoy trolling, fighting and taking threads off topic. I don't at all. I was taken aback by the attack on my friends in the other thread, which was the true "trolling, fighting and taking threads off topic." I didn't have any idea that I was saying anything inflammatory. I was just sharing experiences of people leaving larger cities for smaller metro areas, as you are doing here. I don't have anything against you and only got defensive after that attack. I apologize for any personal retaliatory attacks I made. Edited July 29, 20204 yr by TH3BUDDHA
July 29, 20204 yr ^ Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind on the present moment. ??
July 29, 20204 yr hear are more zoomer leaving ny stories : https://www.curbed.com/2020/7/22/21333147/coronavirus-leaving-nyc-moving-home https://www.thecity.nyc/housing/2020/7/27/21341035/new-york-city-rent-regulation-vacancies-apartments-elliman-moving-brooklyn Edited July 29, 20204 yr by mrnyc
July 29, 20204 yr On 7/23/2020 at 5:49 PM, CLENYC said: NYC refugee here. Born and raised in Cleveland but fled New York City finally after many years there. Left on July 1 and adjusting to what is expected to be a short term stay in Cleveland but may be longer in the metro area. We’ll see as I decide if city-urban living is what I want anymore at all. i see the population of CLE may be bottoming out finally but so much of the city is gone now. A different city altogether. Still it’s easy but need a car now. Ugh. You've needed a car in Cleveland since the mid 80s, unless you wanted to spend all your time in the city proper. It's not a bad thing. Live a half hour out of downtown, go another half hour and you find yourself in the country, unless you head towards Akron, or course. That's the other thing, another reasonably sized metro area, with its own character, a short trip away.
July 29, 20204 yr If there has been an influx to Cleveland from NY, Chicago, and other places because of Covid, its too bad that it wasn't a few months earlier. The 2020 Census is based on where people were living on April 1st. So if a lot of this movement was in the past 2-3 months, they will not show up in the metro Cleveland numbers (til 2030 if they're still here).
July 29, 20204 yr 37 minutes ago, E Rocc said: You've needed a car in Cleveland since the mid 80s, unless you wanted to spend all your time in the city proper. It's not a bad thing. Live a half hour out of downtown, go another half hour and you find yourself in the country, unless you head towards Akron, or course. That's the other thing, another reasonably sized metro area, with its own character, a short trip away. The area around Akron is still part of the metro Cleveland. You don't have to regurgitate what the US Dept of Commerce says--doing so only hurts and minimizes Cleveland.
July 29, 20204 yr @KJP--good article, just read it. It'd be nice if there was some real data on numbers, but I guess this doesn't exist anywhere so all we have is the circumstantial evidence. Are housing vacancies lower than ever--if people moving here are taking up vacant units and any new units that come on the market? When Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico---the number of Puerto Ricans that moved to CLE was pegged at 10,000. Where did that number come from?
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