Richey Piiparinen's latest puts numbers to your assertions/assumptions about Cleveland's and Cuyahoga County's population and economy.  Bottom line: the city and county are doing better than we sometimes think but not, of course, as well as we hope. Still, it's nice to see real numbers put into national and regional perspectives.

 

http://thefutureofgrowth.com/fog/

 

2 hours ago, Dougal said:

Richey Piiparinen's latest puts numbers to your assertions/assumptions about Cleveland's and Cuyahoga County's population and economy.  Bottom line: the city and county are doing better than we sometimes think but not, of course, as well as we hope. Still, it's nice to see real numbers put into national and regional perspectives.

 

http://thefutureofgrowth.com/fog/

 

Definitely worth a read.  Some takeaways and interesting tidbits.

 

1) Even though our population is declining or GDP per capita is increasing above the national average by a decent margin.  Interesting that since 2010 our GDP per capita has grown 1.94% annualized whereas Clark county has grown .68%. I wonder how much of this is from economic growth and how much of this is from poorer residents leaving cuyahoga county.

 

2) We have done a decent job diversifying our economy and have moved away from manufacturing while increasing in the knowledge based services. We still lag behind in information and technology though which needs to change. In fact we have lost 6.1k jobs in this area since 2001.
 

3) Manufacturing in cuyahoga is only 12.4% where as it is 14.1% nationally and 17.5% in Ohio. This shocked me as I didn’t not think CC was below the national average. 

Edited October 9, 20204 yr by cle_guy90

^ What surprised me most in Piiparinen's paper was the steady decline of adult males' participation in the workforce, frpm 89% in 1950 to 68.5% in early pre-Covid 2020 when the official unemployment numbers were so low.  Some of it can be explained by an growing population of retirees; how much of the rest is the "gray" off-the-books economy?

1 hour ago, Dougal said:

^ What surprised me most in Piiparinen's paper was the steady decline of adult males' participation in the workforce, frpm 89% in 1950 to 68.5% in early pre-Covid 2020 when the official unemployment numbers were so low.  Some of it can be explained by an growing population of retirees; how much of the rest is the "gray" off-the-books economy?

Yes and there is a slight rise (not huge) of stay at home dads which was a foreign concept in the 50s. I also wonder if it is part due to more people going to college and grad school as some of them would not participating in the work force. 

I think the drop is primarily due to the loss of good paying jobs in manufacturing. Used to be a male could make a decent living with a high school degree or less. Corporate greed and globalization ended that along with those jobs.   

 

Now we have a separation where a relatively smaller number of the male workforce is employed in knowledge jobs. This leaves those without the skills/education two choices. Either fill the smaller number of good paying jobs that don't require skills/education or drop out into a world of low paying service jobs or worse, govermental dependence,depression,drug/alcohol abuse or suicide. Not a pretty picture.

 

As a society we can't continue on this road. I think we need a national dialogue about where we are, how we got here and what are some possible solutions. The first step in fixing a problem is admitting you have one in the first place. That includes all the flag wavers who won't admit that much of America has driven into a ditch. 

Why the gloom and doom? You can still make a decent living with a high school diploma. Go learn a trade. An apprentice electrician, carpenter, mason, welder, etc. makes enough money to live on. And if someone can't find a construction job in Cleveland (including during the pandemic), they're not looking.

Then why are millions of males without the right skills or education not getting off their butts and doing that? I'm one of those people who would have been left behind if I had stayed in my lane. Something inside propelled me to rise above my working class roots and I did graduate from college (first in my family and still the first) and retired from a relatively high position. But as I look around Cleveland, as I travel the US I see hundreds of cities large and small devastated by globalization . I see small towns emptying out because those left behind in the knowledge economy haven't figured out that just getting the type of training you suggest would be a life saver  - for some of them. But that doesn't account for the millions who can't or won't do that. And so they become casualties to one of the great economic shifts in the last 60 some years. 

 

You're a smart guy Ken (I'm one of your silent fans on here) but you know it's not as simple as you say for an unfortunate massive chunk of the work force. Oh it used to be easy to find a good paying middle class job. At one time most Americans lived within a mile or two of one. Now, it's much harder and the path is far less clear. But one path is unfortunately clear for millions of males. Don't want to work in health care or even a skilled trade so where does that lead? Poverty, despair, confusion, substance abuse, crime and maybe death. 

 

Millions fall into that category today. Just look around you. Trump (snake oil salesman) called it American carnage. It's one of the few things he was right about. 'Course he had no answers but that doesn't make the claim less true.

 

I'm not about doom and gloom but I am saying we have been living in a great economic shift and like major shifts in the past (farm to factory, factory to knowledge economy) there are casualties. I am saying we need to do more than document the shift. We need to figure out what to do with all those who have been left behind. They're Americans too. 

One of biggest complaints I hear from friends who own businesses:  they can't find young people who can pass drug tests.   Any of the construction trades etc are worried about liability, so they need clean tests to hire.  

1 hour ago, Cleburger said:

One of biggest complaints I hear from friends who own businesses:  they can't find young people who can pass drug tests.   Any of the construction trades etc are worried about liability, so they need clean tests to hire.  

I’ve heard a LOT of people say that. Being able to pass a drug test is a huge problem 

2 hours ago, cadmen said:

Then why are millions of males without the right skills or education not getting off their butts and doing that? I'm one of those people who would have been left behind if I had stayed in my lane. Something inside propelled me to rise above my working class roots and I did graduate from college (first in my family and still the first) and retired from a relatively high position. But as I look around Cleveland, as I travel the US I see hundreds of cities large and small devastated by globalization . I see small towns emptying out because those left behind in the knowledge economy haven't figured out that just getting the type of training you suggest would be a life saver  - for some of them. But that doesn't account for the millions who can't or won't do that. And so they become casualties to one of the great economic shifts in the last 60 some years. 

 

You're a smart guy Ken (I'm one of your silent fans on here) but you know it's not as simple as you say for an unfortunate massive chunk of the work force. Oh it used to be easy to find a good paying middle class job. At one time most Americans lived within a mile or two of one. Now, it's much harder and the path is far less clear. But one path is unfortunately clear for millions of males. Don't want to work in health care or even a skilled trade so where does that lead? Poverty, despair, confusion, substance abuse, crime and maybe death. 

 

Millions fall into that category today. Just look around you. Trump (snake oil salesman) called it American carnage. It's one of the few things he was right about. 'Course he had no answers but that doesn't make the claim less true.

 

I'm not about doom and gloom but I am saying we have been living in a great economic shift and like major shifts in the past (farm to factory, factory to knowledge economy) there are casualties. I am saying we need to do more than document the shift. We need to figure out what to do with all those who have been left behind. They're Americans too. 

I actually agree with a lot of this. My attitude originally was closer to KJP’s, especially as a black man and all of the struggles that come along with that and being able to fight through that and start my own business. But everything you said could apply to the black working class as well. The working class in America, both black and white, have been devastated by these economic shifts. I’ve understood that for a while but I figured, like everyone else, that it’s inevitable, there’s nothing you can do to address it and the ones left behind just need to be retrained. But actually COVID changed my mind on all of that. When I found out the extent of the things that we rely on from other countries, it was shocking. We knew it was bad, but I didn’t know we were importing ingredients for our medications from other countries. We had a hard time making Covid tests at the beginning because we imported the damn components to make the test. That’s insane. We are importing things that have a direct impact to our actual lives. That’s when I really started to think “ok how much of this overseas manufacturing are things that we HAD to let go over there and how much of it are things that we CHOSE to let go over there?” Nobody can tell me with a straight face that we don’t have a demand for pharmaceuticals. And how big would it be for, say, a city like Cleveland that has huge investments in the health care field to have pharmaceutical manufacturers right here? Think about how we would’ve been positioned throughout this. So it’s been a slow evolution for me as far as getting to your position but COVID and it’s after effects and all of us learning the extent of our health care supply chain and how much of it is overseas, that has completely changed my thinking on this. 

16 minutes ago, inlovewithCLE said:

I’ve heard a LOT of people say that. Being able to pass a drug test is a huge problem 

 

I don't think I know a single contractor who would pass a drug test lol.

7 minutes ago, surfohio said:

 

I don't think I know a single contractor who would pass a drug test lol.

If it’s their company then they’re the boss, they don’t have to lol. Sounds harsh but it is what it is. 

I once evicted a tenant who was trained at a trade school in metalurgy and lost his job at an exurban manufacturer due to automation (which is the main culprit when it comes to job loss, not off-shoring). I showed him a number of available jobs he could work within walking distance of the apartment. If he needed to, he could sell his car and use the money for job re-training. But most of the jobs I showed him were in retail and even a fast food job was better than nothing in the interim while he looked for a better job. He refused to consider those jobs, saying they were beneath him. So I had to evict him for rent nonpayment. He ended up living in his car. So living in his "vehicle of freedom" apparently was not beneath him.

^ Well that guy is an idiot lol. But yeah, how one does in life is a combination of internal and external factors. I once spent a lousy 2 nights in my car homeless. That put the fear of god in me and I'm an atheist. I started college at 21 and between working and going to school at nights/weekends I spent the better part of 20 years getting an advanced degree. Good for me but a lot of people aren't able to overcome external issues.

 

You mentioned automation not off-shoring as the main reason for job loss and that may be true for the past 30 years or so but starting with Reagan there was a calculated assault on unions. Companies moved south to escape union demands. Of course unions bear some responsibility for onerous work rules but still... But that wasn't enough. Companies demanded more and more concessions. Many just continued south to Mexico. Then China, leaving whole towns and industries devastated.

 

I remember when America was filled with family businesses some of which grew to employ thousands and they were headquartered in the town where they were founded. They were a community anchor. But times change. After a few generations many of those company's were no longer run by the family. A larger company from outside bought up the business and in many cases moved it lock stock and barrel leaving behind a wounded town and workforce. 

 

Or remember in the 80's and 90's when corporate raiders swooped in, bought up a business, sold off what was profitable and simply closed down the rest. Again leaving towns and the local workforce to suffer. 

 

It's all legal cowboy capitalism but is it right? Look, capitalism is the greatest generator of wealth but it needs regulation otherwise we're living in a lord of the flies world. We see the damage wealth inequality creates. All of this is complicated, full of competing interests as well as human failure. We see what happens to people and communities when nothing matters more than the bottom line. That's why I say we need a national dialogue with all parties involved. Otherwise we'll just continue down the same road to the end of the American dream. 

On 10/10/2020 at 10:07 PM, surfohio said:

 

I don't think I know a single contractor who would pass a drug test lol.

Exactly. Drug laws in this country need to be changed full stop. Nobody should be in jail for having a joint. Don't smoke on the job and there shouldn't be an issue. I would venture to say we're probably up to 40% of the country at least dabbling in marijuana. I don't know many people in my sphere of influence that do not...all age groups, income levels etc. 

18 minutes ago, jjames0408 said:

Exactly. Drug laws in this country need to be changed full stop. Nobody should be in jail for having a joint. Don't smoke on the job and there shouldn't be an issue. I would venture to say we're probably up to 40% of the country at least dabbling in marijuana. I don't know many people in my sphere of influence that do not...all age groups, income levels etc. 

 

That's an "interesting" sphere of influence you're in.

On 10/12/2020 at 2:57 PM, KJP said:

 

That's an "interesting" sphere of influence you're in.

While this seems rather "sarcastic", I'm going to go ahead and take it as a compliment as I am a well-rounded person.

Looked at the Census Estimates and it's bad news for not just Cleveland, but also for Cuyahoga County, and the MSA.  I keep hoping we are turning the corner but the numbers just don't suggest this.

 

 

Yet, the numbers for Akron metro have remained relatively stable.  I assume due to Cleveland metro folks moving into Akron metro counties.

6 minutes ago, skiwest said:

Yet, the numbers for Akron metro have remained relatively stable.  I assume due to Cleveland metro folks moving into Akron metro counties.

 

Yeah you would hope though if that was the case metro Akron would be increasing.  It isn't which means the region is losing a lot of population.  The most discouraging thing to e is the rapid population loss in Cleveland MSA and Cuyahoga county from 2014-2010.  If you look at the MSA from 2011 to 2014 it had actually stabilized and was slightly starting to grow.  Hopefully the April census will be encouraging but I am not banking on it.

I've heard lots of people are moving out of NYC.  Maybe some of them will relocate to Cleveland area.  🙂

Too bad the decennial census was not april 2021 vs 2020---for Covid, CLE may have seen a decent bump.

5 minutes ago, skiwest said:

I've heard lots of people are moving out of NYC.  Maybe some of them will relocate to Cleveland area.  🙂

Don't get your hopes up. Only Manhattan actually saw a noticeable amount of people leaving and that's already turned around. November was the busiest November for new leases in 12 years. The people who left are coming back en masse.

30 minutes ago, cle_guy90 said:

Looked at the Census Estimates and it's bad news for not just Cleveland, but also for Cuyahoga County, and the MSA.  I keep hoping we are turning the corner but the numbers just don't suggest this.

 

 

 

I find it interesting that the city of Cleveland is losing people at a slower rate in absolute terms (~2k per year) than the county as a whole (~6k).  Presumably that means that the people still in the county are living in more urban parts.  I'd guess some older inner ring suburbs are losing in this situation.

14 minutes ago, ryanfrazier said:

 

I find it interesting that the city of Cleveland is losing people at a slower rate in absolute terms (~2k per year) than the county as a whole (~6k).  Presumably that means that the people still in the county are living in more urban parts.  I'd guess some older inner ring suburbs are losing in this situation.

I think this is going to be the trend for the forseeable future. CLE is probably close to bottoming out, even with the mass exodus on the East side. The inner ring burbs outside of Lakewood and (maybe) Shaker/CLE Heights are still shedding. Look to Pittsburgh for another metro seeing this trend.

23 minutes ago, jmicha said:

Don't get your hopes up. Only Manhattan actually saw a noticeable amount of people leaving and that's already turned around. November was the busiest November for new leases in 12 years. The people who left are coming back en masse.

 

Everyone I know (and everyone they know) has left NYC for connecticut, jersey burbs, etc.. It's going to take a solid decade for NYC to rebound from this pandemic. There are streets in Cleveland where the NYC plates are close to outnumbering Ohio plates.

7 minutes ago, Clefan98 said:

 

Everyone I know (and everyone they know) has left NYC for connecticut, jersey burbs, etc.. It's going to take a solid decade for NYC to rebound from this pandemic. There are streets in Cleveland where the NYC plates are close to outnumbering Ohio plates.

And everyone I know (as a resident of NYC for 4 years now) at worst moved somewhere temporarily with no plans of that being permanent. Anecdotes don't matter and I struggle to believe yours when I'm here everyday and essentially everyone I interact with is here. The data so far has shown that Manhattan's loss has just been made up for in Queens and Brooklyn and now Manhattan is regaining what it did lose. The idea that NYC was hemorrhaging people to the burbs and other cities wasn't supported by actual data.

15 minutes ago, Clefan98 said:

 

Everyone I know (and everyone they know) has left NYC for connecticut, jersey burbs, etc.. It's going to take a solid decade for NYC to rebound from this pandemic. There are streets in Cleveland where the NYC plates are close to outnumbering Ohio plates.

 

1. I have a buddy that lives in SoHo and just went to his parents house in Georgia since April and now he's back

 

2. Most of the NY plates I think are from WNY. Cleveland tends to be to Buffalo a mini version of what Chicago is to Cleveland. 

 

3. I think inner-ring suburbs (Parma, Brook Park especially) are going to be targets of re-development in the next decade.

1 hour ago, Clefan98 said:

 

Everyone I know (and everyone they know) has left NYC for connecticut, jersey burbs, etc.. It's going to take a solid decade for NYC to rebound from this pandemic. There are streets in Cleveland where the NYC plates are close to outnumbering Ohio plates.

A solid decade? 10 years? Lol. Not a chance. Also NYC plates? You mean New York State plates?

 

1 hour ago, YABO713 said:

2. Most of the NY plates I think are from WNY. Cleveland tends to be to Buffalo a mini version of what Chicago is to Cleveland. 

This 100%. There is this assumption when someone spots a New York plate that they are automatically from New York City lol. Folks there are millions and millions of New Yorkers that don’t live NYC.

I'll throw out again that there are very real people moving from NYC to the eastern suburbs. The Jewish community here has been continually seeing migrants from NYC. They have been selling houses in Brooklyn for ~1.5M and then tearing down bungalows in Beachwood to build new 800k McMansions. I work with someone who is building the houses for them, and he's been busier year over year with it. The NY plates in Beachwood/University Hts/South Euclid are definitely from NYC.

The out migration from New York City has been accelerating over the past few years but the pandemic has only exaggerated the issue. I traded my New York state plates for Kentucky today (given I have no need to live in a high tax state since I can work wherever) and the county clerk said that I was the 20th this month to move down - which is a remarkably high number for a rural county that has practically no in-migration from New York.

 

We have 70 people in our department at my employer with 10 open positions that have become impossible to fill for a variety of reasons. While I loved living where I did, it was -very- expensive to rent and even more absurd to own because of the property and school taxes, and cost of living was the number one reason as to why people leave for other employers and regions within 5 years (according to our internal surveys). In our surveys with job interview candidates why they refused our offers, the cost of living was the number one reason in our surveys conducted within the past two years. Our slightly higher pay grades compared to other institutions simply were not enough to match the far higher expenses to live in New York state versus other regions.

 

I haven't been in an office since March because of Covid. Following five other co-workers in my department who work remote full-time, I requested the same and was granted permanent work-from-home status within a week. It's an idea that's now gaining traction across many other departments on campus because the pandemic made our employer realize that many employees (who can) are just as efficient at home than at work, and that having them at home rather than on campus will bring reduced operating expenses over the long-term. It is also a carrot that we can now dangle over recruits during the job interview process and is now one of the most requested amenities of our job applicants.

 

We won't know the full impact of the pandemic and migration for years to come but I suspect that much of this work-from-home mantra will stay because of the realized efficiencies and lower operating costs for companies.

 

--

 

New York state isn't New York city. The state is far more than one city and most of the population lives out of the New York City than within. It is impossible to tell where someone is from because of their state plates.

 

For that same reason, the Jewish demographic can't be shoehorned into New York City. A very high number of them live on Long Island, north of the metro in Rockland County in extremely dense clusters, and in the Catskills. Historically, the Jewish have long been out-migrating from the city because historically, they were discriminated against (and which ultimately led to the development of the resorts in the Catskills).

Edited December 10, 20204 yr by seicer

10 minutes ago, seicer said:

New York state isn't New York city. The state is far more than one city and most of the population lives out of the New York City than within. It is impossible to tell where someone is from because of their state plates.

Exactly.

See much of this stems from assumptions made back in the spring. MANY people thought the virus would stay mostly concentrated in the very large cities ( NYC in particular) and not spread as bad in smaller, less dense cities and rural areas, that turned out to be wrong. Also most people thought a vaccine was going to take at least 2-3years to develop that was also wrong. Well now many (especially millennials) who left cities like NYC and LA realize it was kinda all for nothing and are now planning their returns (if they can afford it). In addition many people are stuck in year leases they signed back in their “home” cities and can’t get out until the spring. 
 

One more thing I for one HATE working from home. Many people spend years and 10s of thousands of dollars on education and put in a lot of hard work for the opportunity to dress up in tailored suits and commute to that bad ass corner office that overlooks a city. I just can’t imagine how work from home is sustainable especially among the coming millennials. But I mentioned before In a different thread that I can envision companies saving tons of money by keeping less essential talent at home. Also I’ve gained 12 pounds working from home, no thank you lol.

3 hours ago, YABO713 said:

 

1. I have a buddy that lives in SoHo and just went to his parents house in Georgia since April and now he's back

 

2. Most of the NY plates I think are from WNY. Cleveland tends to be to Buffalo a mini version of what Chicago is to Cleveland. 

 

3. I think inner-ring suburbs (Parma, Brook Park especially) are going to be targets of re-development in the next decade.

 

1. I have a cousin who has lived in Manhattan since 2001. He just rented a place in the NJ burbs due to the mental toll and inconvenience (who's riding subways now?) the pandemic has had on him and his family. They will never move back to NYC.

 

2. A lot of Buffalo folk moved here when Key bought out Niagara Bank a few years back. Lately, the NY plates have been coming from NYC and other regions of the east coast. I own a lot of rental properties in the area and half of my new tenants (this year) have come from the NYC area.

 

3. Maybe towards the end of the 2020's. Still have a lot of holes in the city to fill....The biggest emphasis of (re)development in CLE will occur along the river and lake.

Edited December 11, 20204 yr by Clefan98

1 hour ago, 646empire said:

Exactly.

 

 

1 hour ago, seicer said:

New York state isn't New York city. The state is far more than one city and most of the population lives out of the New York City than within. It is impossible to tell where someone is from because of their state plates.

 

 

 

It's not impossible to find out if you talk to them, as I and others have.

22 minutes ago, Clefan98 said:

I own a lot of rental properties in the area and half of my new tenants (this year) have come from the NYC area. 

WOW, half of your new leases this year are not only from out of town movers (which seems high in and of itself) but from NYC specifically? That’s extraordinary.

Edited December 11, 20204 yr by 646empire

4 minutes ago, 646empire said:

WOW, half of your new leases this year are not only from out of town movers but from NYC specifically? That’s extraordinary.

I had 10 leases come up between Jan 1 and July 1 and four were filled from NYC'ers specifically. Another one was from Arlington, VA and the other 4 were from within Ohio already.

Edited December 11, 20204 yr by Clefan98

1 minute ago, Clefan98 said:

.

 

Edited December 11, 20204 yr by Clefan98

2 hours ago, 646empire said:

A solid decade? 10 years? Lol. Not a chance.

 

 

 

10 years is optimistic. I hope it gets back to where it was before my time is up, but it's going to be a looong road back. The psychological effect the pandemic has had on hundreds of thousands (if not millions) can not be understated. Yes, some younger people are moving back because of decreases in rental rates, but that doesn't change the fact that there's never been this many empty units in NYC's history.

 

Don't take my word for it:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/21/don-peebles-new-york-city-may-take-decade-to-recover-from-coronavirus.html

 

26 minutes ago, Clefan98 said:

I had 10 leases come up between Jan 1 and July 1 and four were filled from NYC'ers specifically. Another one was from Arlington, VA and the other 4 were from within Ohio already.

If you have seen half of your units go to individuals that are from out of town that would mean other building owners across the city would be seeing similar, because that’s a big percentage. Cleveland must be seeing significant population gains. We shall see when the data comes in after everything settles down next year.
 

8 minutes ago, 646empire said:

If you have seen half of your units go to individuals that are from out of town that would mean other building owners across the city would be seeing similar, because that’s a big percentage. Cleveland must be seeing significant population gains. We shall see when the data comes in after everything settles down next year.
 

 

Cleveland's essentially breaking even in terms of population as of today. The lower-middle class are still moving outwards and newcomers are only replacing them at the same pace. I've been in meetings with some of the top real estate minds in this town and the consensus seem to believe Cleveland's projected population gains should occur around 2023 or 2024.

Edited December 11, 20204 yr by Clefan98

7 minutes ago, Clefan98 said:

 

10 years is optimistic. I hope it gets back to where it was before my time is up, but it's going to be a looong road back. The psychological effect the pandemic has had on hundreds of thousands (if not millions) can not be understated. Yes, some younger people are moving back because of decreases in rental rates, but that doesn't change the fact that there's never been this many empty units in NYC's history.

 

Don't take my word for it:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/21/don-peebles-new-york-city-may-take-decade-to-recover-from-coronavirus.html

 

I live in NYC, trust me 10 years is non sense. The city is almost completely back to normal now outside of certain expensive parts of Manhattan. I’d give it 24-36 months max to be virtually back to full strength, maybe sooner if international travel picks up faster than expected. Domestic travelers/tourism will be raging back next summer. 

I spent a lot of time in New York City for work this year and had the opportunity to live and visit every borough during different stages of the pandemic. All but Staten Island was deserted or depressed for much of the year but it's been back to normal since the summer. My last trip several weeks ago was the capstone: spending one hour stuck on the Triborough Bridge in Sunday traffic to get to Astoria for a dinner date, and having to spend 30 minutes to find parking. There was heavy pedestrian, car, and bike traffic - albeit with people wearing masks almost universally. Just like the old times :)

 

I do worry about other New York City neighborhoods, mainly Manhattan as it became too expensive, overly commercialized, and empty with shell units before the pandemic but these are structural issues that have long been known. A rebound from the pandemic may offer some relief but unless there are wholesale changes in affordability for both residents and businesses, I don't see a full recovery for Manhattan.

37 minutes ago, 646empire said:

I live in NYC, trust me 10 years is non sense. The city is almost completely back to normal now outside of certain expensive parts of Manhattan. I’d give it 24-36 months max to be virtually back to full strength, maybe sooner if international travel picks up faster than expected. Domestic travelers/tourism will be raging back next summer. 

No large city will be raging by next summer. 0% chance. My friends on Broadway have said shows aren't returning until 2022, and that'll be with a limited audience. 
 

This article suggests normal tourism in 2025. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/11/16/nyregion/nyc-tourism-covid.amp.html%3f0p19G=0232

Edited December 11, 20204 yr by Clefan98

6 minutes ago, Clefan98 said:

No large city will be raging by next summer. 0% chance. My friends on Broadway have said shows aren't returning until 2022, and that'll be with a limited audience. 
 

This article states normal tourism in 2025. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/11/16/nyregion/nyc-tourism-covid.amp.html%3f0p19G=0232

This is getting a bit off topic from Cleveland Population. But I didn’t say tourism will be raging*, I said tourism will be raging back* as in huge increases in travel over this year. If you think for a second that once vaccinated most people aren’t going to immediately plan vacations your nutts!!! No offense. Thats the reason airline stocks and hotel stocks are now recovering, it’s the reason why Airbnb went public today and stunned with its almost 100 Billion Dollar valuation,

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/12/10/airbnb-ipo-abnb-starts-trading-on-the-nasdaq.html

 

, It’s based on a recovery in the travel industry.  Literally everyone I know is chomping at the bit to travel again including myself. Those dooms day articles are played out and some of them are written by low key Trump based big city haters. 

51 minutes ago, Clefan98 said:

 

Cleveland's essentially breaking even in terms of population as of today. The lower-middle class are still moving outwards and newcomers are only replacing them at the same pace. I've been in meetings with some of the top real estate minds in this town and the consensus seem to believe Cleveland's projected population gains should occur around 2023 or 2024.

 

So let's end all the NYC talk.  I'm interested in this comment.  What makes them say that the Cleveland will start gaining in population by 2023/24?  Is it that they think that there will be enough neighborhoods that have stabilized?  

For about the last 30 years, we've been hearing that Cleveland will soon start gaining population.

While there may be population gains in downtown, Ohio City, Tremont and other neighborhoods, they don't offset the massive losses in the eastern neighborhoods nor the bleeding in the southwest and south portions of the city. Entire areas have become hollowed out.

This is going to be far, far clearer once the actual census numbers come out. The interim year estimates are just that--estimates. They are often way off.

 

From the 2009 estimate to the 2010 census, Columbus "gained" about 19K, Cleveland "lost" about 38K, and Cincinnati "lost" about 9K. The smallest discrepancy was 9K, which is equal to 50% of the total estimated change in Cleveland from 2010 to 2019. Generally, the census estimate is conservative about gains or losses, but it sometimes goes the opposite direction. From 2000 to 2009, the census estimated that Philadelphia had lost about 50K people. But when the 2010 census occurred, it turned out that Philadelphia had actually gained about 15k over that time (i.e. the census estimate was off by 65K). The same thing happened in Milwaukee where the census estimated a substantial population loss (approx. 13K from 2000 to 2009 and the 2010 census revealed the population was almost exactly static. 

 

So I think we'll have to hold off on judgments about 2023 or 2024 until we see the census results. It's within the realm of possibility that Cleveland has actually already gained population since 2010. I'm not saying I expect that, but it wouldn't be an unprecedented error. It's also possible we've lost more than twice what the census estimates, and in that case I'm pretty skeptical of the 2023 or 2024 numbers unfortunately.

14 hours ago, 646empire said:

I live in NYC, trust me 10 years is non sense. The city is almost completely back to normal now outside of certain expensive parts of Manhattan. I’d give it 24-36 months max to be virtually back to full strength, maybe sooner if international travel picks up faster than expected. Domestic travelers/tourism will be raging back next summer. 

 

This. 

 

There have been reports of NYC's death since the 19th Century. Over and over again, like a broken record. And just like Mark Twain's, they have always been greatly exaggerated.