More families are picking downtown living over suburbs

 

Downtown Cleveland has had a re-birth in the past year.  The success of our sports teams, new restaurants, and attractions are drawing many to the city.  As the number of overall residents grows, new numbers show a 200-percent increase five to nine year old's living downtown.

 

 

So instead of only seven, there's twenty-one?

 

It can be a great place to live, but not so much for little kids.  For a multitude of reasons.

 

 

 

The actual numbers:

 

5 - 9 years

2010 - 98

2015- 294

 

+ 200%

 

The actual numbers:

 

5 - 9 years

2010 - 98

2015- 294

 

+ 200%

 

That's great if true. But where did you get the "actual" numbers? Census is 2010 and 2020. Are you citing Census Bureau estimates or an actual census that the City, or DCA or somebody did?

 

 

Census released its 2016 estimates for MSA and county-level population changes and population change components (births, deaths, domestic migration, international immigration). By these estimates, Cuyahoga County had the fourth largest numeric net population loss of all US counties last year, at about 6k. That number is the result of about 15k births, 14k deaths, 10k net domestic outmigration (including to collar counties), and 3k net international migration.  This is all from the charts in the press release, I haven't looked at anything in the raw data, like the net number for the MSA as a whole.

 

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2017/cb17-44.html#declining_counties

^ it looks like we could use more immigrants to help boost the population growth.

^For sure. But it's interesting to note that the relatively small trickle of immigration we have now is still significant enough to offset about a third of the purely domestic factors. I wouldn't have guessed that.  Decomposing the net number into the various factors adds so much useful info. Just showing the net loss gives so little info. Allegheny County, PA, for instance, has similar net pop loss, but the factors are somewhat different. They have much smaller net domestic outmigration (which is great), but their deaths outnumber births and their immigration was actually less than Cuyahoga County's.

 

Addendum: looks like the Cleveland MSA has had the biggest estimated net population loss since 2010 of all MSAs: https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

 

Addendum 2: and holy crap, Youngstown is almost tied with Cleveland in largest absolute population loss since 2010 of all US MSAs.

Net domestic outmigration is really dragging those numbers down. Surprised international migration covers 1/3  of the domestic outmigration loss. Got to get the economy going to bring down domestic outmigration. That would decrease outmigration and increase births.

It's pretty amazing that Columbus has such high positive net domestic migration since 2010. From a very quick scan, I think it and Indianapolis are the only large northern Metros to have positive domestic migration. The sweet spot of good economy, lousy nearby economies to draw from, and low housing costs, I guess. 

Cuyahoga County lost 5K last year... that's not good, but doesn't this represent a slowing down?

It's pretty amazing that Columbus has such high positive net domestic migration since 2010. From a very quick scan, I think it and Indianapolis are the only large northern Metros to have positive domestic migration. The sweet spot of good economy, lousy nearby economies to draw from, and low housing costs, I guess. 

 

What about Minneapolis? That metro grew by about 25,000 last year per the recently released info.

^For sure. But it's interesting to note that the relatively small trickle of immigration we have now is still significant enough to offset about a third of the purely domestic factors. I wouldn't have guessed that.  Decomposing the net number into the various factors adds so much useful info. Just showing the net loss gives so little info. Allegheny County, PA, for instance, has similar net pop loss, but the factors are somewhat different. They have much smaller net domestic outmigration (which is great), but their deaths outnumber births and their immigration was actually less than Cuyahoga County's.

 

Addendum: looks like the Cleveland MSA has had the biggest estimated net population loss since 2010 of all MSAs: https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk

 

Addendum 2: and holy crap, Youngstown is almost tied with Cleveland in largest absolute population loss since 2010 of all US MSAs.

 

I thought Pittsburgh's immigration was doing better than Cleveland per what I read elsewhere (Pittsburgh bias).

 

 

Net domestic outmigration is really dragging those numbers down. Surprised international migration covers 1/3  of the domestic outmigration loss. Got to get the economy going to bring down domestic outmigration. That would decrease outmigration and increase births.

 

It would be nice to know details about these two numbers. Are the departures mostly old crumblies headed off to purgatoryFlorida? Are the immigrants white collar or laborers?

 

One of the more promising numbers around is 2015-2016 growth in the Cuyahoga County workforce taken from State of Ohio data - up 500 year over year. Even if this is "discouraged workers" returning to the labor force, it's a positive reversal from prior years and a leading economic indicator.

Cuyahoga County lost 5K last year... that's not good, but doesn't this represent a slowing down?

 

I think with the economy improving much better elsewhere than Ohio, these numbers will get worse for Cleveland/NE Ohio/Ohio.  Look at Michigan.  A lot of their metro areas have seen impressive job and population growth the last year.  Estimates never tell the long story, but with how bad Cleveland and Ohio's economies are, I wouldn't be expecting good numbers any time soon.

I always like the saying, "it's the economy, stupid." Without a robust blue-collar and white-collar economy, you can't have population gains or stabilization. All of these projects we follow up on on affect or impact a small percentage of Cleveland. While they may bring new residents into the city, in very specific locales (Ohio City, Tremont), the vast majority of the city is in a failing state. It's not entirely the city's fault, as decades of industry consolidations, collapse and disinvestment has taken its toll on the region. But a failing city also brings up issues with city government more so than a city that's prosperous. Corruption and poor investments mar the city's potential.

 

It's interesting to see that other states are having issues for the same reason, although on a smaller scale. Back in my neck of the woods (West Virginia), entire counties are continuing to see their populations decline in a dramatic fashion. The collapse of coal (economy) and the shrinkage of government is causing a spiraling effect to their budget and the resources the state can provide its citizens. When a county (McDowell) can't afford to pay teachers a living wage, nor attract them to even look into the region (despite the state building new housing for the specific purpose of attracting teachers), it can be traced back to one basic element - the economy, or lack of.

 

When I look at Cleveland, there is still a robust industrial / blue-collar sector, but it's no longer supplying the jobs in numbers that move the needle forward. ArcelorMittal employs around 1,500 on a site that once supported more than 10,000 but it's now a more efficient plant (per man-hour) than it ever was when the facility was at peak employment due to automation and new technology. (Absent the fact that the steel mills were operated by two separate companies and were grossly inefficient, even after merger, until the company essentially went bankrupt a decade ago.) And the new steel plant being built by Charter Steel nearby? Will employ around 25.

 

I guess I'm just digressing at this point. There is no way Cleveland will have thousands of new jobs in blue-collar sectors because those jobs are increasingly being automated or off-shored. I wonder if there is a magic bullet for the city or if it will continue to decline in size until it reaches a stable plateau.

Cuyahoga County's stats rank near the bottom again. What's distressing is that even Wayne County, Mich. is seeing slow improvements in terms of rate of change. The Cleveland area is becoming the new bottom of all large US metros in terms of population loss. There's really nothing positive to take from these numbers. Can't claim there is a renaissance yet.

 

The most surprising statistic was Baltimore City. It had lost only about 1500 residents during 2010-2015 but lost almost 6k in 2016 alone.

 

I've been booted out of parks in Lyndhurst and Euclid at night, and they don't get more Euro- Jewish looking than my friends and I. 

 

Christ, not everything is about race and supposedly racist policies and fearful white suburbanites. 

 

The suburban metroparks all close at 11PM, and some of the local suburban ones do at dusk.

I always like the saying, "it's the economy, stupid." Without a robust blue-collar and white-collar economy, you can't have population gains or stabilization. All of these projects we follow up on on affect or impact a small percentage of Cleveland. While they may bring new residents into the city, in very specific locales (Ohio City, Tremont), the vast majority of the city is in a failing state. It's not entirely the city's fault, as decades of industry consolidations, collapse and disinvestment has taken its toll on the region. But a failing city also brings up issues with city government more so than a city that's prosperous. Corruption and poor investments mar the city's potential.

 

It's interesting to see that other states are having issues for the same reason, although on a smaller scale. Back in my neck of the woods (West Virginia), entire counties are continuing to see their populations decline in a dramatic fashion. The collapse of coal (economy) and the shrinkage of government is causing a spiraling effect to their budget and the resources the state can provide its citizens. When a county (McDowell) can't afford to pay teachers a living wage, nor attract them to even look into the region (despite the state building new housing for the specific purpose of attracting teachers), it can be traced back to one basic element - the economy, or lack of.

 

When I look at Cleveland, there is still a robust industrial / blue-collar sector, but it's no longer supplying the jobs in numbers that move the needle forward. ArcelorMittal employs around 1,500 on a site that once supported more than 10,000 but it's now a more efficient plant (per man-hour) than it ever was when the facility was at peak employment due to automation and new technology. (Absent the fact that the steel mills were operated by two separate companies and were grossly inefficient, even after merger, until the company essentially went bankrupt a decade ago.) And the new steel plant being built by Charter Steel nearby? Will employ around 25.

 

I guess I'm just digressing at this point. There is no way Cleveland will have thousands of new jobs in blue-collar sectors because those jobs are increasingly being automated or off-shored. I wonder if there is a magic bullet for the city or if it will continue to decline in size until it reaches a stable plateau.

 

According to the BLS there are still 125,000 manufacturing jobs. It will be decades more of decline to wait for that plateau despite sizable job growth in healthcare. The region needs to find a way to attract more jobs. Maybe look down the road at Columbus and see what they are doing right.

 

I know the cities have different economies but that doesn't mean Cbus isn't doing the little things to attract people. For example, I've seen several ads on the DC Metro advertising ColumbUS. Portraying it as an affordable place for Millenials. Smart move.

A region built on blue collar work will face strong headwinds until those blue collar jobs stabilize. It feels the region adds 5000 new white collar jobs loses 4000 manufacturing jobs. Eventually, the economy should right-size itself. 

A region built on blue collar work will face strong headwinds until those blue collar jobs stabilize. It feels the region adds 5000 new white collar jobs loses 4000 manufacturing jobs. Eventually, the economy should right-size itself. 

 

Clevelanders have been saying that since 1965. It's been 50 years. Boston and Toronto were manufacturing cities in the 1950s too. Look at them now.

^ I agree.  You have to move on from manufacturing.  Automation will continue to eliminate jobs.  We must transition to the knowledge economy, which I think is slowly happening.

^^I don't disagree, but we didn't start moving on from manufacturing until what 10-15 years ago? We have moved on. I wish we would have done it 20-30 years earlier.

^ I agree.  You have to move on from manufacturing.  Automation will continue to eliminate jobs.  We must transition to the knowledge economy, which I think is slowly happening.

 

And yet NEO had one of the largest moves FOR the GOP in the last election, based at least in part on the idea that Trump would restore manufacturing to prior glory.  It doesn't seem like the message is really getting out on how this is a losing proposition.

^ I agree.  You have to move on from manufacturing.  Automation will continue to eliminate jobs.  We must transition to the knowledge economy, which I think is slowly happening.

 

And yet NEO had one of the largest moves FOR the GOP in the last election, based at least in part on the idea that Trump would restore manufacturing to prior glory.  It doesn't seem like the message is really getting out on how this is a losing proposition.

 

Why bring that up in this thread?  Focus on Columbus, bud.

Friendly reminder that this is thread on the topic of Cleveland Population trends, we have other threads on manufacturing and other threads on politics.

 

Please stay on topic

Cuyahoga County's stats rank near the bottom again. What's distressing is that even Wayne County, Mich. is seeing slow improvements in terms of rate of change. The Cleveland area is becoming the new bottom of all large US metros in terms of population loss. There's really nothing positive to take from these numbers. Can't claim there is a renaissance yet.

 

The most surprising statistic was Baltimore City. It had lost only about 1500 residents during 2010-2015 but lost almost 6k in 2016 alone.

 

 

There are a certain select few who consistently paint such a negative picture of our regional economy (both population wise and jobs wise), and put other metros on such a high pedestal. I am actually more optimistic now than ever. A LOT of people are retiring in NEO, and the fact of the matter is, they're going to move to Florida. They've had their hearts set on that since they started working. So what's going to happen, or should I say what is already happening is that this creates a lot of job opportunities for the younger generations to back fill those jobs. The negative here is that the growth is more of a replacement of the older workers as opposed to new job creation. I agree that is a bad thing; however, the upside is that these newcomers are going to increasingly settle in the city. Cleveland is basically going to mirror Pitt metro. Good concentration of high skilled jobs in and around the core, redeveloping urban neighborhoods, rapid decline in inner ring post war suburbs, and an overall economically stagnant outer metro (cities like Lorain, Y-town, Painesville, etc.).

 

I hate the rhetoric of Detroit is doing so much better. They are not, and as the economy improves, only so many empty buildings will be rehabbed in their downtown. Eventually people are going to seek the Tremonts and Ohio Cities of Detroit which are virtually non existent. So as their economy begins to diversify like Pitt and CLE, the younger generation who do not relocate into the immediate downtown will have two choices, build new in an urban prairie with no amenities whatsoever or continue to settle in Ann Arbor, Royal Oak, Grosse Point, etc.

It's also interesting how much immigration there is in Franklin County versus Cuyahoga (or the rest of Ohio in general). OSU is a huge influence on that, and so is the state government. It's a self feeding cycle.

 

One of the more interesting tidbits I got when I worked at CWRU was how many foreign students (especially Chinese) attended the university, and how much that had shifted in the past ten years alone. The number of foreign Chinese students jumped from around 5% to something around 26%, with that number increasing each year. The end goal is to get them to stick around to Cleveland, but considering how specialized many of CWRU's majors and focuses are, that's hard to do. I don't have the numbers in front of me anymore (the public documents were forced to be removed back in February), but many of them emigrated out to other areas.

Cuyahoga County's stats rank near the bottom again. What's distressing is that even Wayne County, Mich. is seeing slow improvements in terms of rate of change. The Cleveland area is becoming the new bottom of all large US metros in terms of population loss. There's really nothing positive to take from these numbers. Can't claim there is a renaissance yet.

 

The most surprising statistic was Baltimore City. It had lost only about 1500 residents during 2010-2015 but lost almost 6k in 2016 alone.

 

 

There are a certain select few who consistently paint such a negative picture of our regional economy (both population wise and jobs wise), and put other metros on such a high pedestal. I am actually more optimistic now than ever. A LOT of people are retiring in NEO, and the fact of the matter is, they're going to move to Florida. They've had their hearts set on that since they started working. So what's going to happen, or should I say what is already happening is that this creates a lot of job opportunities for the younger generations to back fill those jobs. The negative here is that the growth is more of a replacement of the older workers as opposed to new job creation. I agree that is a bad thing; however, the upside is that these newcomers are going to increasingly settle in the city. Cleveland is basically going to mirror Pitt metro. Good concentration of high skilled jobs in and around the core, redeveloping urban neighborhoods, rapid decline in inner ring post war suburbs, and an overall economically stagnant outer metro (cities like Lorain, Y-town, Painesville, etc.).

 

I hate the rhetoric of Detroit is doing so much better. They are not, and as the economy improves, only so many empty buildings will be rehabbed in their downtown. Eventually people are going to seek the Tremonts and Ohio Cities of Detroit which are virtually non existent. So as their economy begins to diversify like Pitt and CLE, the younger generation who do not relocate into the immediate downtown will have two choices, build new in an urban prairie with no amenities whatsoever or continue to settle in Ann Arbor, Royal Oak, Grosse Point, etc.

 

Is pointing out stats being negative? Does cheerleading solve Cleveland's issues?

 

Cleveland is not like Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh has about 2/3 the manufacturing base as Cleveland now. So the idea of waiting for the manufacturing jobs to wane away means literally decades of continued population decline. Cleveland needs a faster growth rate of jobs in other sectors. Yet in 50 years nothing has really been done about this. This isn't being pessimistic. It's a fact.

 

It's also interesting how much immigration there is in Franklin County versus Cuyahoga (or the rest of Ohio in general). OSU is a huge influence on that, and so is the state government. It's a self feeding cycle.

 

One of the more interesting tidbits I got when I worked at CWRU was how many foreign students (especially Chinese) attended the university, and how much that had shifted in the past ten years alone. The number of foreign Chinese students jumped from around 5% to something around 26%, with that number increasing each year. The end goal is to get them to stick around to Cleveland, but considering how specialized many of CWRU's majors and focuses are, that's hard to do. I don't have the numbers in front of me anymore (the public documents were forced to be removed back in February), but many of them emigrated out to other areas.

 

Your mention of Case got me thinking of how Cleveland has a lot of great small colleges in the area. Cleveland is certainly not like Cbus in terms of universities but it reminds me of Boston in many ways. Yet Boston and Cleveland went on very different paths starting in the 60s.

It's also interesting how much immigration there is in Franklin County versus Cuyahoga (or the rest of Ohio in general). OSU is a huge influence on that, and so is the state government. It's a self feeding cycle.

 

It's a part of it but not the full story.  Otherwise, Lansing and Tallahassee would be the "Columbus" of Michigan and Florida (state government + large state universities).

It's pretty amazing that Columbus has such high positive net domestic migration since 2010. From a very quick scan, I think it and Indianapolis are the only large northern Metros to have positive domestic migration. The sweet spot of good economy, lousy nearby economies to draw from, and low housing costs, I guess. 

 

What about Minneapolis? That metro grew by about 25,000 last year per the recently released info.

 

Twin Cities had 8k net domestic outmigration since 2010: https://factfinder.census.gov/bkmk/table/1.0/en/PEP/2016/GCTPEPTCOM.US24

 

I thought Pittsburgh's immigration was doing better than Cleveland per what I read elsewhere (Pittsburgh bias).

 

Since 2010, Cleveland has benefited from about 25K net international immigration compared to 23K for Pittsburgh, 23K for Cinci, 36K for Columbus, 26K for Indianapolis, 18K for Milwaukee, 72K for Detroit, and 65K for the Twin Cities.

 

[Edited to fix mistakes]

Cuyahoga County's stats rank near the bottom again. What's distressing is that even Wayne County, Mich. is seeing slow improvements in terms of rate of change. The Cleveland area is becoming the new bottom of all large US metros in terms of population loss. There's really nothing positive to take from these numbers. Can't claim there is a renaissance yet.

 

The most surprising statistic was Baltimore City. It had lost only about 1500 residents during 2010-2015 but lost almost 6k in 2016 alone.

 

 

There are a certain select few who consistently paint such a negative picture of our regional economy (both population wise and jobs wise), and put other metros on such a high pedestal. I am actually more optimistic now than ever. A LOT of people are retiring in NEO, and the fact of the matter is, they're going to move to Florida. They've had their hearts set on that since they started working. So what's going to happen, or should I say what is already happening is that this creates a lot of job opportunities for the younger generations to back fill those jobs. The negative here is that the growth is more of a replacement of the older workers as opposed to new job creation. I agree that is a bad thing; however, the upside is that these newcomers are going to increasingly settle in the city. Cleveland is basically going to mirror Pitt metro. Good concentration of high skilled jobs in and around the core, redeveloping urban neighborhoods, rapid decline in inner ring post war suburbs, and an overall economically stagnant outer metro (cities like Lorain, Y-town, Painesville, etc.).

 

I hate the rhetoric of Detroit is doing so much better. They are not, and as the economy improves, only so many empty buildings will be rehabbed in their downtown. Eventually people are going to seek the Tremonts and Ohio Cities of Detroit which are virtually non existent. So as their economy begins to diversify like Pitt and CLE, the younger generation who do not relocate into the immediate downtown will have two choices, build new in an urban prairie with no amenities whatsoever or continue to settle in Ann Arbor, Royal Oak, Grosse Point, etc.

just for the record, while downtown Painesville will never be the bustling place it once was, and it's been a struggle to revitalize it, the town itself is hardly on the decline. While the last census (2010) is now long over, it reflected a nearly 12% growth from the previous one. I don't know if that's continued into the current decade, but estimates of Painesville population place it just under 20K now. I know that's a small number (it's a small town after all), but the surrounding area (Painesville Township, Concord, etc.) also grew over that period. So, hardly stagnant.

 

City of Painesville growing impressively (chart)

By Cassandra Shofar

POSTED: 08/16/11, 12:01 AM EDT | UPDATED: ON 08/16/2011

 

http://www.news-herald.com/general-news/20110816/city-of-painesville-growing-impressively-chart

Cuyahoga County's stats rank near the bottom again. What's distressing is that even Wayne County, Mich. is seeing slow improvements in terms of rate of change. The Cleveland area is becoming the new bottom of all large US metros in terms of population loss. There's really nothing positive to take from these numbers. Can't claim there is a renaissance yet.

 

The most surprising statistic was Baltimore City. It had lost only about 1500 residents during 2010-2015 but lost almost 6k in 2016 alone.

 

 

There are a certain select few who consistently paint such a negative picture of our regional economy (both population wise and jobs wise), and put other metros on such a high pedestal. I am actually more optimistic now than ever. A LOT of people are retiring in NEO, and the fact of the matter is, they're going to move to Florida. They've had their hearts set on that since they started working. So what's going to happen, or should I say what is already happening is that this creates a lot of job opportunities for the younger generations to back fill those jobs. The negative here is that the growth is more of a replacement of the older workers as opposed to new job creation. I agree that is a bad thing; however, the upside is that these newcomers are going to increasingly settle in the city. Cleveland is basically going to mirror Pitt metro. Good concentration of high skilled jobs in and around the core, redeveloping urban neighborhoods, rapid decline in inner ring post war suburbs, and an overall economically stagnant outer metro (cities like Lorain, Y-town, Painesville, etc.).

 

I hate the rhetoric of Detroit is doing so much better. They are not, and as the economy improves, only so many empty buildings will be rehabbed in their downtown. Eventually people are going to seek the Tremonts and Ohio Cities of Detroit which are virtually non existent. So as their economy begins to diversify like Pitt and CLE, the younger generation who do not relocate into the immediate downtown will have two choices, build new in an urban prairie with no amenities whatsoever or continue to settle in Ann Arbor, Royal Oak, Grosse Point, etc.

 

It's not at all trying to paint a negative image, at least not on my part.  I am one of the biggest supporters of NEO/Ohio on these type of forums.  I am getting tired of watching Cleveland get passed up nationally and regionally.  It's unacceptable, especially for what the region has to offer.  It's called being a realist.  The utopian view that Cleveland has few problems is not doing the city any justice. So my optimism is not nearly as high, forgive me. When I have to travel and see how other areas are doing, it gets even more frustrating.  Cleveland is far behind.  The Cleveland boosterism gets old, and this is coming from a big Cleveland booster.

 

Being from Youngstown, I was a huge supporter of Cleveland, and still am to this day.  I was a bigger fan of Cleveland than Pittsburgh, and still am to this day.  I believe NEO is a far more attractive area to live than Western PA, and it's not nearly as backwards.  But Pittsburgh is a far different city than Cleveland, and much healthier city. Go to Youngstown, the majority of the younger population prefers Pittsburgh, especially southern Mahoning and Columbiana Counties. It's going to take Cleveland a lot longer to comeback than Pittsburgh has.  Pittsburgh's surrounding areas suffered the brunt of its economic collapse, whereas Cleveland was all in the city.  The built environment is different, and so is the economics.  Pittsburgh had Duquesne and PITT, Cleveland doesn't have that caliber of an institution to bring in tech companies.  Case Western is a wonderful research university, but Pittsburgh has more, and they turned to their universities to turn the economy around.  If Cleveland was truly in Pittsburgh's position of, well it's really just the old people retiring and we aren't seeing enough births or in-migration to offset the loses I would think Cleveland was pretty stable, but that's not the case.  Cleveland is losing its educated workforce in large numbers.  Facts do not lie.  Again, economics at play.

 

And if your comments are directed at me as far as Detroit goes, maybe I should come on here more often.  There's not a lot of development news in Cleveland, so I do not pay too close attention to what is happening on this forum, but I have made those suggestions about Detroit before.  Let's be real, Cleveland only has a small land area of the Tremonts and Ohio Citys, while huge swaths of Cleveland are doing terrible.  A little background, I work closely with land banks throughout NEO, and the Ohio land banks have held their annual conference in Cleveland the last two years.  In 2015 I went on a Slavic Village tour to check out how new plexiglass was being introduced to make homes look more attractive to rehabbers, and virtually impossible to break into.  I sat next to a woman who worked heavily on neighborhood activities in SV.  I asked her what she thought about the Opportunity Corridor and the impacts it may have on SV.  She could not stop talking about the investment in Downtown and Ohio City and how so much of the rest of the city was forgotten about.  Just like Detroit, only a few areas are being invested in.  Downtown Detroit today is doing far more than downtown Cleveland, it's not even close.  Do I think Detroit is a healthier city than Cleveland?  No.  Detroit is making huge progress though.  And don't count Detroit out.  The rebound is spreading much further than downtown into the Midtown area, so people are moving beyond those empty buildings downtown.  And Detroit has some beautiful residential areas as well.  On the other hand, Metro Detroit is healthier than Metro Cleveland.  The two are always paired up next to each other, especially in news days like today when census numbers come out.  "God forbid if you're like Detroit or Cleveland." 

 

Metro Detroit is growing.  Metro Cleveland is not.  That speaks volumes in itself.  Cleveland is still heavily invested in manufacturing, so I don't see how Cleveland is even close to diversifying its economy like Pittsburgh.  Cleveland is more like Detroit than Pittsburgh in economic recovery, minus the fact that Detroit has gained a far larger percentage of its jobs in the last year than Cleveland. 

 

It's not about being negative on Cleveland.  It's about being tired of watching Cleveland accept the bare minimum and think things are going to move forward.  Instead of just focusing on small areas of the city, move out and help areas with potential.  It's there, but they're not getting the attention they deserve. Collinwood anyone?  Don't tell me how I am suppose to respond about Cleveland.  I have loved the city since I was a little kid looking down on Public Square from my aunt's office window in the 55 building.  I have supported Cleveland far more than Pittsburgh, a city I grew up closer to.  I see Cleveland's potential, and I know great things can happen, but I am so tired of a mediocre attitude from an economic development standpoint.  If Cleveland wants its population to grow again, there's a lot more needed than just investing in Downtown, OC, and Tremont.

It's also interesting how much immigration there is in Franklin County versus Cuyahoga (or the rest of Ohio in general). OSU is a huge influence on that, and so is the state government. It's a self feeding cycle.

 

It's a part of it but not the full story.  Otherwise, Lansing and Tallahassee would be the "Columbus" of Michigan and Florida (state government + large state universities).

 

It helps a lot that Columbus itself comprises most of the metro.  It also helps that Columbus has a government structure focused on the good of the entire city, rather than the empowerment of hyper-local interests and activists.  Cleveland's patchwork arrangement never worked well and has become untenable.

It's also interesting how much immigration there is in Franklin County versus Cuyahoga (or the rest of Ohio in general). OSU is a huge influence on that, and so is the state government. It's a self feeding cycle.

 

It's a part of it but not the full story.  Otherwise, Lansing and Tallahassee would be the "Columbus" of Michigan and Florida (state government + large state universities).

 

It helps a lot that Columbus itself comprises most of the metro.  It also helps that Columbus has a government structure focused on the good of the entire city, rather than the empowerment of hyper-local interests and activists.  Cleveland's patchwork arrangement never worked well and has become untenable.

 

The patchwork arrangement helping to bring the region down is also untouchable unless there's an utter collapse like in East Cleveland.

What should be done? We have this conversation every time these numbers come out. What are some strategies? How do we capitalize on our current strengths like healthcare? There have been some postives changes in demographics over the past few years. The region has picked up more educated workers. We have become a hub for Healthcare. How do we build on that?

Cuyahoga County's stats rank near the bottom again. What's distressing is that even Wayne County, Mich. is seeing slow improvements in terms of rate of change. The Cleveland area is becoming the new bottom of all large US metros in terms of population loss. There's really nothing positive to take from these numbers. Can't claim there is a renaissance yet.

 

 

Sadly, our leaders don't want more net in-migration. They would rather reign in hell than serve in heaven.

What should be done? We have this conversation every time these numbers come out. What are some strategies? How do we capitalize on our current strengths like healthcare? There have been some change in demographics over the past few years. The region has picked up more educated workers. We have become a hub for Healthcare. How do we build on that?

 

Has there ever been a region wide forum with local business, government and civic leaders to discuss the employment issues NE Ohio continues to have? Coming up with some sort of master plan to create new jobs? I can't remember anything of the sort in my lifetime. Something like that would be a start.

Cuyahoga County's stats rank near the bottom again. What's distressing is that even Wayne County, Mich. is seeing slow improvements in terms of rate of change. The Cleveland area is becoming the new bottom of all large US metros in terms of population loss. There's really nothing positive to take from these numbers. Can't claim there is a renaissance yet.

 

The most surprising statistic was Baltimore City. It had lost only about 1500 residents during 2010-2015 but lost almost 6k in 2016 alone.

 

 

There are a certain select few who consistently paint such a negative picture of our regional economy (both population wise and jobs wise), and put other metros on such a high pedestal. I am actually more optimistic now than ever. A LOT of people are retiring in NEO, and the fact of the matter is, they're going to move to Florida. They've had their hearts set on that since they started working. So what's going to happen, or should I say what is already happening is that this creates a lot of job opportunities for the younger generations to back fill those jobs. The negative here is that the growth is more of a replacement of the older workers as opposed to new job creation. I agree that is a bad thing; however, the upside is that these newcomers are going to increasingly settle in the city. Cleveland is basically going to mirror Pitt metro. Good concentration of high skilled jobs in and around the core, redeveloping urban neighborhoods, rapid decline in inner ring post war suburbs, and an overall economically stagnant outer metro (cities like Lorain, Y-town, Painesville, etc.).

 

I hate the rhetoric of Detroit is doing so much better. They are not, and as the economy improves, only so many empty buildings will be rehabbed in their downtown. Eventually people are going to seek the Tremonts and Ohio Cities of Detroit which are virtually non existent. So as their economy begins to diversify like Pitt and CLE, the younger generation who do not relocate into the immediate downtown will have two choices, build new in an urban prairie with no amenities whatsoever or continue to settle in Ann Arbor, Royal Oak, Grosse Point, etc.

 

It's not at all trying to paint a negative image, at least not on my part.  I am one of the biggest supporters of NEO/Ohio on these type of forums.  I am getting tired of watching Cleveland get passed up nationally and regionally.  It's unacceptable, especially for what the region has to offer.  It's called being a realist.  The utopian view that Cleveland has few problems is not doing the city any justice. So my optimism is not nearly as high, forgive me. When I have to travel and see how other areas are doing, it gets even more frustrating.  Cleveland is far behind.  The Cleveland boosterism gets old, and this is coming from a big Cleveland booster.

 

Being from Youngstown, I was a huge supporter of Cleveland, and still am to this day.  I was a bigger fan of Cleveland than Pittsburgh, and still am to this day.  I believe NEO is a far more attractive area to live than Western PA, and it's not nearly as backwards.  But Pittsburgh is a far different city than Cleveland, and much healthier city. Go to Youngstown, the majority of the younger population prefers Pittsburgh, especially southern Mahoning and Columbiana Counties. It's going to take Cleveland a lot longer to comeback than Pittsburgh has.  Pittsburgh's surrounding areas suffered the brunt of its economic collapse, whereas Cleveland was all in the city.  The built environment is different, and so is the economics.  Pittsburgh had Duquesne and PITT, Cleveland doesn't have that caliber of an institution to bring in tech companies.  Case Western is a wonderful research university, but Pittsburgh has more, and they turned to their universities to turn the economy around.  If Cleveland was truly in Pittsburgh's position of, well it's really just the old people retiring and we aren't seeing enough births or in-migration to offset the loses I would think Cleveland was pretty stable, but that's not the case.  Cleveland is losing its educated workforce in large numbers.  Facts do not lie.  Again, economics at play.

 

And if your comments are directed at me as far as Detroit goes, maybe I should come on here more often.  There's not a lot of development news in Cleveland, so I do not pay too close attention to what is happening on this forum, but I have made those suggestions about Detroit before.  Let's be real, Cleveland only has a small land area of the Tremonts and Ohio Citys, while huge swaths of Cleveland are doing terrible.  A little background, I work closely with land banks throughout NEO, and the Ohio land banks have held their annual conference in Cleveland the last two years.  In 2015 I went on a Slavic Village tour to check out how new plexiglass was being introduced to make homes look more attractive to rehabbers, and virtually impossible to break into.  I sat next to a woman who worked heavily on neighborhood activities in SV.  I asked her what she thought about the Opportunity Corridor and the impacts it may have on SV.  She could not stop talking about the investment in Downtown and Ohio City and how so much of the rest of the city was forgotten about.  Just like Detroit, only a few areas are being invested in.  Downtown Detroit today is doing far more than downtown Cleveland, it's not even close.  Do I think Detroit is a healthier city than Cleveland?  No.  Detroit is making huge progress though.  And don't count Detroit out.  The rebound is spreading much further than downtown into the Midtown area, so people are moving beyond those empty buildings downtown.  And Detroit has some beautiful residential areas as well.  On the other hand, Metro Detroit is healthier than Metro Cleveland.  The two are always paired up next to each other, especially in news days like today when census numbers come out.  "God forbid if you're like Detroit or Cleveland." 

 

Metro Detroit is growing.  Metro Cleveland is not.  That speaks volumes in itself.  Cleveland is still heavily invested in manufacturing, so I don't see how Cleveland is even close to diversifying its economy like Pittsburgh.  Cleveland is more like Detroit than Pittsburgh in economic recovery, minus the fact that Detroit has gained a far larger percentage of its jobs in the last year than Cleveland. 

 

It's not about being negative on Cleveland.  It's about being tired of watching Cleveland accept the bare minimum and think things are going to move forward.  Instead of just focusing on small areas of the city, move out and help areas with potential.  It's there, but they're not getting the attention they deserve. Collinwood anyone?  Don't tell me how I am suppose to respond about Cleveland.  I have loved the city since I was a little kid looking down on Public Square from my aunt's office window in the 55 building.  I have supported Cleveland far more than Pittsburgh, a city I grew up closer to.  I see Cleveland's potential, and I know great things can happen, but I am so tired of a mediocre attitude from an economic development standpoint.  If Cleveland wants its population to grow again, there's a lot more needed than just investing in Downtown, OC, and Tremont.

 

Pittsburgh isn't doing as well as you seem to think it is...

 

https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.pa_pittsburgh_msa.htm

 

http://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2016/09/27/pittsburgh-region-leads-in-job-loss-in-latest-economic-reports/

 

http://www.post-gazette.com/local/region/2016/03/24/Census-shows-population-decline-in-Pittsburgh-region/stories/201603240067

 

 

 

Focusing on the city or even the county talks about jurisdictional boundaries that have become increasingly irrelevant and  misses so much of the regional economic picture. MSA's or even CSA's provide a better regional basis for trend analysis. (Rich Exner only rarely uses these measures.)

 

With that in mind, I think a pretty fair case can be made that the population of the Cleveland-Elyria MSA *is* stable. From 2.075 million in 2010, it has declined to 2.055 million in 2016, a decline of about 3.3K per year, BUT most of the decline occurred in the first two years, In the last four years, since 2012, it has declined only about 9.0K, or 2.25K per year or one-tenth of one percent per year. At that rate it would take a hundred years for the population to decline by 10%.

 

I am always (over?)optimistic; but I think the number goes positive by 2018. It wouldn't take much.

What should be done? We have this conversation every time these numbers come out. What are some strategies? How do we capitalize on our current strengths like healthcare? There have been some postives changes in demographics over the past few years. The region has picked up more educated workers. We have become a hub for Healthcare. How do we build on that?

 

Our leaders say "healthcare" about as often as they say some version of "boulevard vibrant greenspace" but neither has produced much after years of incessant focus.  We're hardly the only metro trying to rebuild its economy on healthcare while closing hospitals left and right.  Something doesn't quite add up there. 

 

I honestly believe we need more manufacturing, not less.  It also builds on a current strength and it has hardly disappeared from the Earth or from the US.  Automation is also a danger to knowledge and service sector jobs-- so those concepts don't necessarily bail us out either.

 

We need to focus development on what we can sell to people from outside the region, what will convince them to invest here and move jobs here. That means real TOD and functional, recognizable urbanity.  It's crucial that the suburbanization of the city ends now.  The growth in Columbus is not due to sprawl anymore.  Instead Columbus is urbanizing its core and it's working like gangbusters.

Cuyahoga County's stats rank near the bottom again. What's distressing is that even Wayne County, Mich. is seeing slow improvements in terms of rate of change. The Cleveland area is becoming the new bottom of all large US metros in terms of population loss. There's really nothing positive to take from these numbers. Can't claim there is a renaissance yet.

 

The most surprising statistic was Baltimore City. It had lost only about 1500 residents during 2010-2015 but lost almost 6k in 2016 alone.

 

 

There are a certain select few who consistently paint such a negative picture of our regional economy (both population wise and jobs wise), and put other metros on such a high pedestal. I am actually more optimistic now than ever. A LOT of people are retiring in NEO, and the fact of the matter is, they're going to move to Florida. They've had their hearts set on that since they started working. So what's going to happen, or should I say what is already happening is that this creates a lot of job opportunities for the younger generations to back fill those jobs. The negative here is that the growth is more of a replacement of the older workers as opposed to new job creation. I agree that is a bad thing; however, the upside is that these newcomers are going to increasingly settle in the city. Cleveland is basically going to mirror Pitt metro. Good concentration of high skilled jobs in and around the core, redeveloping urban neighborhoods, rapid decline in inner ring post war suburbs, and an overall economically stagnant outer metro (cities like Lorain, Y-town, Painesville, etc.).

 

I hate the rhetoric of Detroit is doing so much better. They are not, and as the economy improves, only so many empty buildings will be rehabbed in their downtown. Eventually people are going to seek the Tremonts and Ohio Cities of Detroit which are virtually non existent. So as their economy begins to diversify like Pitt and CLE, the younger generation who do not relocate into the immediate downtown will have two choices, build new in an urban prairie with no amenities whatsoever or continue to settle in Ann Arbor, Royal Oak, Grosse Point, etc.

 

It's not at all trying to paint a negative image, at least not on my part.  I am one of the biggest supporters of NEO/Ohio on these type of forums.  I am getting tired of watching Cleveland get passed up nationally and regionally.  It's unacceptable, especially for what the region has to offer.  It's called being a realist.  The utopian view that Cleveland has few problems is not doing the city any justice. So my optimism is not nearly as high, forgive me. When I have to travel and see how other areas are doing, it gets even more frustrating.  Cleveland is far behind.  The Cleveland boosterism gets old, and this is coming from a big Cleveland booster.

 

Being from Youngstown, I was a huge supporter of Cleveland, and still am to this day.  I was a bigger fan of Cleveland than Pittsburgh, and still am to this day.  I believe NEO is a far more attractive area to live than Western PA, and it's not nearly as backwards.  But Pittsburgh is a far different city than Cleveland, and much healthier city. Go to Youngstown, the majority of the younger population prefers Pittsburgh, especially southern Mahoning and Columbiana Counties. It's going to take Cleveland a lot longer to comeback than Pittsburgh has.  Pittsburgh's surrounding areas suffered the brunt of its economic collapse, whereas Cleveland was all in the city.  The built environment is different, and so is the economics.  Pittsburgh had Duquesne and PITT, Cleveland doesn't have that caliber of an institution to bring in tech companies.  Case Western is a wonderful research university, but Pittsburgh has more, and they turned to their universities to turn the economy around.  If Cleveland was truly in Pittsburgh's position of, well it's really just the old people retiring and we aren't seeing enough births or in-migration to offset the loses I would think Cleveland was pretty stable, but that's not the case.  Cleveland is losing its educated workforce in large numbers.  Facts do not lie.  Again, economics at play.

 

And if your comments are directed at me as far as Detroit goes, maybe I should come on here more often.  There's not a lot of development news in Cleveland, so I do not pay too close attention to what is happening on this forum, but I have made those suggestions about Detroit before.  Let's be real, Cleveland only has a small land area of the Tremonts and Ohio Citys, while huge swaths of Cleveland are doing terrible.  A little background, I work closely with land banks throughout NEO, and the Ohio land banks have held their annual conference in Cleveland the last two years.  In 2015 I went on a Slavic Village tour to check out how new plexiglass was being introduced to make homes look more attractive to rehabbers, and virtually impossible to break into.  I sat next to a woman who worked heavily on neighborhood activities in SV.  I asked her what she thought about the Opportunity Corridor and the impacts it may have on SV.  She could not stop talking about the investment in Downtown and Ohio City and how so much of the rest of the city was forgotten about.  Just like Detroit, only a few areas are being invested in.  Downtown Detroit today is doing far more than downtown Cleveland, it's not even close.  Do I think Detroit is a healthier city than Cleveland?  No.  Detroit is making huge progress though.  And don't count Detroit out.  The rebound is spreading much further than downtown into the Midtown area, so people are moving beyond those empty buildings downtown.  And Detroit has some beautiful residential areas as well.  On the other hand, Metro Detroit is healthier than Metro Cleveland.  The two are always paired up next to each other, especially in news days like today when census numbers come out.  "God forbid if you're like Detroit or Cleveland." 

 

Metro Detroit is growing.  Metro Cleveland is not.  That speaks volumes in itself.  Cleveland is still heavily invested in manufacturing, so I don't see how Cleveland is even close to diversifying its economy like Pittsburgh.  Cleveland is more like Detroit than Pittsburgh in economic recovery, minus the fact that Detroit has gained a far larger percentage of its jobs in the last year than Cleveland. 

 

It's not about being negative on Cleveland.  It's about being tired of watching Cleveland accept the bare minimum and think things are going to move forward.  Instead of just focusing on small areas of the city, move out and help areas with potential.  It's there, but they're not getting the attention they deserve. Collinwood anyone?  Don't tell me how I am suppose to respond about Cleveland.  I have loved the city since I was a little kid looking down on Public Square from my aunt's office window in the 55 building.  I have supported Cleveland far more than Pittsburgh, a city I grew up closer to.  I see Cleveland's potential, and I know great things can happen, but I am so tired of a mediocre attitude from an economic development standpoint.  If Cleveland wants its population to grow again, there's a lot more needed than just investing in Downtown, OC, and Tremont.

 

Pittsburgh isn't doing as well as you seem to think it is...

 

https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.pa_pittsburgh_msa.htm

 

http://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2016/09/27/pittsburgh-region-leads-in-job-loss-in-latest-economic-reports/

 

http://www.post-gazette.com/local/region/2016/03/24/Census-shows-population-decline-in-Pittsburgh-region/stories/201603240067

 

Wait, that's all you have?  I already recognized Pittsburgh is declining in population, but their population dynamics are different than Cleveland's. You're painting Pittsburgh with too broad of a brush. You're pulling out monthly data reports/articles.  Look at what Pittsburgh has done in the last 15 years and get back to me.  Take a walk through Pittsburgh and notice how much more lively the city is than Cleveland and get back to me.  I will be the first to tell you, there is a lot Western PA that is extremely undesirable, but the city of Pittsburgh is not.

 

Look at Cleveland versus Detroit and Pittsburgh in this chart... only one isn't doing well.  Detroit and Pittsburgh are seeing rebounds, Cleveland not so much:

 

http://www.newgeography.com/content/005557-detroits-recovery-oh-yeah-its-real-alright

^You're "Why am I the only one who gets it?" schtick would carry more weight if you ever actually had any ideas to move the city forward.  So far your only contribution is to kick Cleveland with every chance you get.

Let's not get into a Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland debate. I went to Pitt. My wife is from Pittsburgh. There are so many reasons why the two cities are different. Topography, demographics, economics, suburban sprawl patterns...

Cuyahoga County's stats rank near the bottom again. What's distressing is that even Wayne County, Mich. is seeing slow improvements in terms of rate of change. The Cleveland area is becoming the new bottom of all large US metros in terms of population loss. There's really nothing positive to take from these numbers. Can't claim there is a renaissance yet.

 

The most surprising statistic was Baltimore City. It had lost only about 1500 residents during 2010-2015 but lost almost 6k in 2016 alone.

 

 

There are a certain select few who consistently paint such a negative picture of our regional economy (both population wise and jobs wise), and put other metros on such a high pedestal. I am actually more optimistic now than ever. A LOT of people are retiring in NEO, and the fact of the matter is, they're going to move to Florida. They've had their hearts set on that since they started working. So what's going to happen, or should I say what is already happening is that this creates a lot of job opportunities for the younger generations to back fill those jobs. The negative here is that the growth is more of a replacement of the older workers as opposed to new job creation. I agree that is a bad thing; however, the upside is that these newcomers are going to increasingly settle in the city. Cleveland is basically going to mirror Pitt metro. Good concentration of high skilled jobs in and around the core, redeveloping urban neighborhoods, rapid decline in inner ring post war suburbs, and an overall economically stagnant outer metro (cities like Lorain, Y-town, Painesville, etc.).

 

I hate the rhetoric of Detroit is doing so much better. They are not, and as the economy improves, only so many empty buildings will be rehabbed in their downtown. Eventually people are going to seek the Tremonts and Ohio Cities of Detroit which are virtually non existent. So as their economy begins to diversify like Pitt and CLE, the younger generation who do not relocate into the immediate downtown will have two choices, build new in an urban prairie with no amenities whatsoever or continue to settle in Ann Arbor, Royal Oak, Grosse Point, etc.

 

It's not at all trying to paint a negative image, at least not on my part.  I am one of the biggest supporters of NEO/Ohio on these type of forums.  I am getting tired of watching Cleveland get passed up nationally and regionally.  It's unacceptable, especially for what the region has to offer.  It's called being a realist.  The utopian view that Cleveland has few problems is not doing the city any justice. So my optimism is not nearly as high, forgive me. When I have to travel and see how other areas are doing, it gets even more frustrating.  Cleveland is far behind.  The Cleveland boosterism gets old, and this is coming from a big Cleveland booster.

 

Being from Youngstown, I was a huge supporter of Cleveland, and still am to this day.  I was a bigger fan of Cleveland than Pittsburgh, and still am to this day.  I believe NEO is a far more attractive area to live than Western PA, and it's not nearly as backwards.  But Pittsburgh is a far different city than Cleveland, and much healthier city. Go to Youngstown, the majority of the younger population prefers Pittsburgh, especially southern Mahoning and Columbiana Counties. It's going to take Cleveland a lot longer to comeback than Pittsburgh has.  Pittsburgh's surrounding areas suffered the brunt of its economic collapse, whereas Cleveland was all in the city.  The built environment is different, and so is the economics.  Pittsburgh had Duquesne and PITT, Cleveland doesn't have that caliber of an institution to bring in tech companies.  Case Western is a wonderful research university, but Pittsburgh has more, and they turned to their universities to turn the economy around.  If Cleveland was truly in Pittsburgh's position of, well it's really just the old people retiring and we aren't seeing enough births or in-migration to offset the loses I would think Cleveland was pretty stable, but that's not the case.  Cleveland is losing its educated workforce in large numbers.  Facts do not lie.  Again, economics at play.

 

And if your comments are directed at me as far as Detroit goes, maybe I should come on here more often.  There's not a lot of development news in Cleveland, so I do not pay too close attention to what is happening on this forum, but I have made those suggestions about Detroit before.  Let's be real, Cleveland only has a small land area of the Tremonts and Ohio Citys, while huge swaths of Cleveland are doing terrible.  A little background, I work closely with land banks throughout NEO, and the Ohio land banks have held their annual conference in Cleveland the last two years.  In 2015 I went on a Slavic Village tour to check out how new plexiglass was being introduced to make homes look more attractive to rehabbers, and virtually impossible to break into.  I sat next to a woman who worked heavily on neighborhood activities in SV.  I asked her what she thought about the Opportunity Corridor and the impacts it may have on SV.  She could not stop talking about the investment in Downtown and Ohio City and how so much of the rest of the city was forgotten about.  Just like Detroit, only a few areas are being invested in.  Downtown Detroit today is doing far more than downtown Cleveland, it's not even close.  Do I think Detroit is a healthier city than Cleveland?  No.  Detroit is making huge progress though.  And don't count Detroit out.  The rebound is spreading much further than downtown into the Midtown area, so people are moving beyond those empty buildings downtown.  And Detroit has some beautiful residential areas as well.  On the other hand, Metro Detroit is healthier than Metro Cleveland.  The two are always paired up next to each other, especially in news days like today when census numbers come out.  "God forbid if you're like Detroit or Cleveland." 

 

Metro Detroit is growing.  Metro Cleveland is not.  That speaks volumes in itself.  Cleveland is still heavily invested in manufacturing, so I don't see how Cleveland is even close to diversifying its economy like Pittsburgh.  Cleveland is more like Detroit than Pittsburgh in economic recovery, minus the fact that Detroit has gained a far larger percentage of its jobs in the last year than Cleveland. 

 

It's not about being negative on Cleveland.  It's about being tired of watching Cleveland accept the bare minimum and think things are going to move forward.  Instead of just focusing on small areas of the city, move out and help areas with potential.  It's there, but they're not getting the attention they deserve. Collinwood anyone?  Don't tell me how I am suppose to respond about Cleveland.  I have loved the city since I was a little kid looking down on Public Square from my aunt's office window in the 55 building.  I have supported Cleveland far more than Pittsburgh, a city I grew up closer to.  I see Cleveland's potential, and I know great things can happen, but I am so tired of a mediocre attitude from an economic development standpoint.  If Cleveland wants its population to grow again, there's a lot more needed than just investing in Downtown, OC, and Tremont.

 

I agree with many of these points, and I apologize for any perceived personal attacks. I guess I am just of the mind set that we are moving in the right direction. Sure the government in this region doesn't always make smart decisions, but I think private forces are having more of an impact anyway. I think we are trying. Some areas harder than others, but I do think everyone is trying to move the region forward. I am not rosy-eyed at all. The east side is mostly a mess. I get angry every time I drive down Broadway, St Clair, and Buckeye and see the potential. What frustrates me more than the population and job loss stories is the stigma that East side development has to overcome. The east side has far more interesting building stock than the west side, but we focus everything on the east side. I agree that Collinwood continues to be overshadowed and could be one of the best neighborhoods in the city, but again, it's that stigma...

 

Stigma in general is what is holding this region back more than our policy makers. I'll take a personal shot at my millennial generation. We (not all) make decisions based on "coolness" which is ridiculous but sadly true. Companies our constantly seeking talent pools and cluster around areas where more college educated are moving to. The problem is, Cleveland still does not have a great reputation across the nation. It's getting better but not quite there. Consequently, we are not "cool" so it makes it that much harder to attract talent and then the companies that follow. It's a stupid formula but still.

So, here we are.  Franklin County finally passed Cuyahoga in population.  The primary issue at play is jobs, which is simple and not-so-simple.  Here's the negative:  The Cleveland region lost population, jobs, and income since 2010 with some statistics showing the amount of people in the job market and actually employed matches levels the region had at around 1990.  The positive:  I think the region truly scrapped rock-bottom when it comes to losses and is positioned to grow in jobs and income. 

 

 

Let's not get into a Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland debate. I went to Pitt. My wife is from Pittsburgh. There are so many reasons why the two cities are different. Topography, demographics, economics, suburban sprawl patterns...

 

We continually injure ourselves by writing off Pittsburgh's competent policy decisions as a function of hills.  Topography is irrelevant to development choices, otherwise Atlanta would be developed like Chicago and vice versa.  German cities are dense, and it's mountainous there, but so are English cities and it's flat.  The Bay Area has an extreme topography-related land shortage but enacted policies to minimize density, policies which are absolutely effective despite all the market demand in the world.

 

Everything you mention besides topography is heavily influenced by local policy and local leadership.  That is where we keep losing ground.

Cuyahoga County's stats rank near the bottom again. What's distressing is that even Wayne County, Mich. is seeing slow improvements in terms of rate of change. The Cleveland area is becoming the new bottom of all large US metros in terms of population loss. There's really nothing positive to take from these numbers. Can't claim there is a renaissance yet.

 

The most surprising statistic was Baltimore City. It had lost only about 1500 residents during 2010-2015 but lost almost 6k in 2016 alone.

 

 

There are a certain select few who consistently paint such a negative picture of our regional economy (both population wise and jobs wise), and put other metros on such a high pedestal. I am actually more optimistic now than ever. A LOT of people are retiring in NEO, and the fact of the matter is, they're going to move to Florida. They've had their hearts set on that since they started working. So what's going to happen, or should I say what is already happening is that this creates a lot of job opportunities for the younger generations to back fill those jobs. The negative here is that the growth is more of a replacement of the older workers as opposed to new job creation. I agree that is a bad thing; however, the upside is that these newcomers are going to increasingly settle in the city. Cleveland is basically going to mirror Pitt metro. Good concentration of high skilled jobs in and around the core, redeveloping urban neighborhoods, rapid decline in inner ring post war suburbs, and an overall economically stagnant outer metro (cities like Lorain, Y-town, Painesville, etc.).

 

I hate the rhetoric of Detroit is doing so much better. They are not, and as the economy improves, only so many empty buildings will be rehabbed in their downtown. Eventually people are going to seek the Tremonts and Ohio Cities of Detroit which are virtually non existent. So as their economy begins to diversify like Pitt and CLE, the younger generation who do not relocate into the immediate downtown will have two choices, build new in an urban prairie with no amenities whatsoever or continue to settle in Ann Arbor, Royal Oak, Grosse Point, etc.

 

It's not at all trying to paint a negative image, at least not on my part.  I am one of the biggest supporters of NEO/Ohio on these type of forums.  I am getting tired of watching Cleveland get passed up nationally and regionally.  It's unacceptable, especially for what the region has to offer.  It's called being a realist.  The utopian view that Cleveland has few problems is not doing the city any justice. So my optimism is not nearly as high, forgive me. When I have to travel and see how other areas are doing, it gets even more frustrating.  Cleveland is far behind.  The Cleveland boosterism gets old, and this is coming from a big Cleveland booster.

 

Being from Youngstown, I was a huge supporter of Cleveland, and still am to this day.  I was a bigger fan of Cleveland than Pittsburgh, and still am to this day.  I believe NEO is a far more attractive area to live than Western PA, and it's not nearly as backwards.  But Pittsburgh is a far different city than Cleveland, and much healthier city. Go to Youngstown, the majority of the younger population prefers Pittsburgh, especially southern Mahoning and Columbiana Counties. It's going to take Cleveland a lot longer to comeback than Pittsburgh has.  Pittsburgh's surrounding areas suffered the brunt of its economic collapse, whereas Cleveland was all in the city.  The built environment is different, and so is the economics.  Pittsburgh had Duquesne and PITT, Cleveland doesn't have that caliber of an institution to bring in tech companies.  Case Western is a wonderful research university, but Pittsburgh has more, and they turned to their universities to turn the economy around.  If Cleveland was truly in Pittsburgh's position of, well it's really just the old people retiring and we aren't seeing enough births or in-migration to offset the loses I would think Cleveland was pretty stable, but that's not the case.  Cleveland is losing its educated workforce in large numbers.  Facts do not lie.  Again, economics at play.

 

And if your comments are directed at me as far as Detroit goes, maybe I should come on here more often.  There's not a lot of development news in Cleveland, so I do not pay too close attention to what is happening on this forum, but I have made those suggestions about Detroit before.  Let's be real, Cleveland only has a small land area of the Tremonts and Ohio Citys, while huge swaths of Cleveland are doing terrible.  A little background, I work closely with land banks throughout NEO, and the Ohio land banks have held their annual conference in Cleveland the last two years.  In 2015 I went on a Slavic Village tour to check out how new plexiglass was being introduced to make homes look more attractive to rehabbers, and virtually impossible to break into.  I sat next to a woman who worked heavily on neighborhood activities in SV.  I asked her what she thought about the Opportunity Corridor and the impacts it may have on SV.  She could not stop talking about the investment in Downtown and Ohio City and how so much of the rest of the city was forgotten about.  Just like Detroit, only a few areas are being invested in.  Downtown Detroit today is doing far more than downtown Cleveland, it's not even close.  Do I think Detroit is a healthier city than Cleveland?  No.  Detroit is making huge progress though.  And don't count Detroit out.  The rebound is spreading much further than downtown into the Midtown area, so people are moving beyond those empty buildings downtown.  And Detroit has some beautiful residential areas as well.  On the other hand, Metro Detroit is healthier than Metro Cleveland.  The two are always paired up next to each other, especially in news days like today when census numbers come out.  "God forbid if you're like Detroit or Cleveland." 

 

Metro Detroit is growing.  Metro Cleveland is not.  That speaks volumes in itself.  Cleveland is still heavily invested in manufacturing, so I don't see how Cleveland is even close to diversifying its economy like Pittsburgh.  Cleveland is more like Detroit than Pittsburgh in economic recovery, minus the fact that Detroit has gained a far larger percentage of its jobs in the last year than Cleveland. 

 

It's not about being negative on Cleveland.  It's about being tired of watching Cleveland accept the bare minimum and think things are going to move forward.  Instead of just focusing on small areas of the city, move out and help areas with potential.  It's there, but they're not getting the attention they deserve. Collinwood anyone?  Don't tell me how I am suppose to respond about Cleveland.  I have loved the city since I was a little kid looking down on Public Square from my aunt's office window in the 55 building.  I have supported Cleveland far more than Pittsburgh, a city I grew up closer to.  I see Cleveland's potential, and I know great things can happen, but I am so tired of a mediocre attitude from an economic development standpoint.  If Cleveland wants its population to grow again, there's a lot more needed than just investing in Downtown, OC, and Tremont.

 

Pittsburgh isn't doing as well as you seem to think it is...

 

https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.pa_pittsburgh_msa.htm

 

http://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2016/09/27/pittsburgh-region-leads-in-job-loss-in-latest-economic-reports/

 

http://www.post-gazette.com/local/region/2016/03/24/Census-shows-population-decline-in-Pittsburgh-region/stories/201603240067

 

Wait, that's all you have?  I already recognized Pittsburgh is declining in population, but their population dynamics are different than Cleveland's. You're painting Pittsburgh with too broad of a brush. You're pulling out monthly data reports/articles.  Look at what Pittsburgh has done in the last 15 years and get back to me.  Take a walk through Pittsburgh and notice how much more lively the city is than Cleveland and get back to me.  I will be the first to tell you, there is a lot Western PA that is extremely undesirable, but the city of Pittsburgh is not.

 

Look at Cleveland versus Detroit and Pittsburgh in this chart... only one isn't doing well.  Detroit and Pittsburgh are seeing rebounds, Cleveland not so much:

 

http://www.newgeography.com/content/005557-detroits-recovery-oh-yeah-its-real-alright

 

Detroit and Pittsburgh haven't rebounded any more or less than Cleveland. Your puff piece proves nothing.  Wayne Co has lost 70k residents since 2010.  Yeah, that's booming...

327, I'm not saying there aren't things we can't learn from Pittsburgh, I'm saying there are multiple reasons why things develop differently. Pittsburgh is still losing people. The Pittsburgh MSA is losing population and Western PA has an older population than Northeast Ohio. Yes, the city of Pittsburgh is more "lively" than Cleveland. Some of that's policy. Some of that is demographics. Pittsburgh's steel mills were outside of the city. All those steel towns along the river are bombed out now. They look like East Cleveland. Pittsburgh never experienced the amount of "white flight" Detroit or Cleveland experienced. Pittsburgh didn't have riots in the mid to late 60's that increased white flight to the suburbs. You would be amazed how topography separates neighborhoods there. Those hills are like walls...crime doesn't spill over as easy from rough neighborhoods. Oakland (Pitt) and the Hill District (really rough area) abut each other but they feel miles apart. This helped preserve neighborhoods. Again, we can learn some things from Pittsburgh, but Pittsburgh has some natural advantages that helped it maintain vitality.

^As for Pittsburgh being more "lively" than Cleveland, I don't agree.  Depends on the neighborhood.  Downtown Cleveland, overall, is more lively than Pittsburgh after 6p (and esp on weekends) because of downtown Cleveland's sharp growth in office-to-apartment (and hotel) conversions in recent years coupled with pockets of new construction like Stonebridge, FEB and the Hilton; whereas downtown Pittsburgh has more 9-to-5 employment than downtown Cleveland.  While it has improved considerably in recent years, downtown Pittsburgh still seems quiet and empty compared to Cleveland's after hours and on weekends.  Station Square is a downtown/near downtown neighborhood that bustles near the river -- but the Flats, too, has been making a sharp comeback -- try finding parking in/around FEB on weekends.

 

Southside, Shadyside, Oakland and East Liberty are bustling in Pittsburgh... but so are Ohio City, Tremont, D-S and (esp lately) University Circle/Uptown/Little Italy.  Also Shaker Square/Larchmere, Edgewater and Kamms Corner are less touted than the other above-mentioned trendy areas of Cleveland, but are doing pretty well in their own rights.

 

So comparing the lively aspect of Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh amounts to: 6 in one hand, half dozen in the other.

 

*  *    *

 

Ultimately growth (economic and population-wise) of course will come down to jobs and industry.  While not perfect, Cleveland has been cashing in, to some degree on one of its main trump, er, strong cards: Health Care.  Between the dominant Cleveland Clinic and the smaller UH, large/important in its own right, and all the satellites of both medical centers, there has been growth and the possibility for still more.

 

The part of the problem with jobs is the unions. I'm in a union but i'm not blinded from what going on. A co-worker lived in Tampa and loved it. Be he said they didn't pay much from what he did(construction) down there. They were paying $11 an hour in that field of work. Up here in Ohio $18+. But people are willing to sacrifice pay for warm weather. Weather they can save money  to retire that a whole other  problem down the road.

 

I could not believe that Orlando had only 16,000 births compared to 40,000+ in-migration. Something will have to give someday.

These recommendations for city success are literally the exact opposite of what Cleveland does...

https://www.citylab.com/politics/2017/03/city-power-richard-schragger/519720/

 

The part of the problem with jobs is the unions. I'm in a union but i'm not blinded from what going on. A co-worker lived in Tampa and loved it. Be he said they didn't pay much from what he did(construction) down there. They were paying $11 an hour in that field of work. Up here in Ohio $18+. But people are willing to sacrifice pay for warm weather. Weather they can save money  to retire that a whole other  problem down the road.

 

I could not believe that Orlando had only 16,000 births compared to 40,000+ in-migration. Something will have to give someday.

 

People don't simply sacrifice pay for warm weather. My brother is a union Plumber/Pipefitter and he moved to Vegas for half a year because they doubled his hourly rate (of $32 an hour) to install plumbing on a new commercial building. If they're paying 11 dollars an hour for skilled labor, it sounds like your friend is an undocumented illegal immigrant. No citizen in the construction trades with certification and is actually skilled labor is moving to Orlando to make $11 an hour.