Except Boston doesn't have a lot of vacant land/buildings.

 

- 86% of Cuyahoga population loss (past 40 years) was attributable to smaller family sizes

 

 

I'm interested in how they arrived at this statistic. 

 

In my own family, I am THE last one here--everyone else has moved away in the last 20 years.  My parents, sister, brother and ALL my aunts and uncles have all left Cleveland for either the Sunbelt or West Coast.  Additionally, many of my good friends from school and my college years are also gone--to Dallas, Nashville, etc. 

I'm interested in how they arrived at this statistic. 

 

In my own family, I am THE last one here--everyone else has moved away in the last 20 years.  My parents, sister, brother and ALL my aunts and uncles have all left Cleveland for either the Sunbelt or West Coast.  Additionally, many of my good friends from school and my college years are also gone--to Dallas, Nashville, etc.

 

Are the houses your friends and family moved from currently vacant? I assume they sold their homes to somebody else when they left town.

I can say for my part, the street I grew up on had multiple catholic families with 4, 5, 6 kids.  On the street I live on now (very close to where I grew up), my family of 3 kids is tied for the largest.  Most families only have 1 or 2 kids.

I can say for my part, the street I grew up on had multiple catholic families with 4, 5, 6 kids.  On the street I live on now (very close to where I grew up), my family of 3 kids is tied for the largest.  Most families only have 1 or 2 kids.

 

I don't doubt this--but I don't see how it adds up to 86% of our population loss.    How many of your family and those many Catholic kids have moved away?

Great conversation on the Sound of Ideas today re: population loss. The guests presented good data and ideas as well as comparisons of Franklin vs Cuyahoga counties that were deeper than 'Columbus annexs.'

 

Two things I found interesting:

- 86% of Cuyahoga population loss (past 40 years) was attributable to smaller family sizes

- It was recommended that the county/city focus more on income and property value rather than population, as Boston has done (which will also probably never reach its peak population ever again).

 

http://wcpn.ideastream.org/programs/sound-of-ideas/ohio-poverty-report-ne-ohio-population-loss-statehouse-update

 

Boston most certainly can pass it's peak. Boston peak population was 801k in 1950. It currently stands at 667k as of the 2015 estimate but is on pace to add 100k from 2010 to 2020. If Boston grows at it's current rate it will approach it's peak as soon as 2030.

 

Greater Cleveland's shrinking family size is in part a function of new immigrants generally avoiding Cleveland or not even knowing it exists. That status wont change until the jobs come to NE Ohio. Doesn't help that the Mayor Jackson is somewhat anti-immigrant either.

Boston is a piss-poor comparable for Cleveland.  Boston is a very old City with a ton of historical significance and attraction for tourists.  Cleveland is relatively new by comparison.  Boston MSA has Harvard, MIT, BU, BC, Suffolk, UMass, Northeaster, Tufts, Emerson, Simmons, and numerous other colleges/universities with a total enrollment of around 250,000.  We have CWRU, CSU, John Carroll, and B-W.  Boston is also the largest MSA in the state by far (really, in all of NE) and the state capital.  We compete with the other two C's and don't get any of the benefits of being the state capital.   

 

I can say for my part, the street I grew up on had multiple catholic families with 4, 5, 6 kids.  On the street I live on now (very close to where I grew up), my family of 3 kids is tied for the largest.  Most families only have 1 or 2 kids.

 

I don't doubt this--but I don't see how it adds up to 86% of our population loss.    How many of your family and those many Catholic kids have moved away?

 

No idea how it would add up to 86%, but if you look at the abandonment around Cuyahoga County, I would bet a good portion of it (not 86%) is up-down duplexes which were extremely popular with larger families. 

 

In my particular area, the Catholic population has significantly thinned.  That is evidenced by the closing of St. Margaret Mary and St. Greg's, the two neighborhood catholic schools.  Regina, an all girls catholic high school, also closed.  Small sample size, but I wouldn't doubt that 86% of the population loss in northern Cleveland Heights, parts of Euclid and South Euclid, and Collinwood over the past 50 years is indeed due to the exodus of the Catholic families.  Cuyahoga as a whole is another story I suspect.

I can say for my part, the street I grew up on had multiple catholic families with 4, 5, 6 kids.  On the street I live on now (very close to where I grew up), my family of 3 kids is tied for the largest.  Most families only have 1 or 2 kids.

 

I don't doubt this--but I don't see how it adds up to 86% of our population loss.    How many of your family and those many Catholic kids have moved away?

 

No idea how it would add up to 86%, but if you look at the abandonment around Cuyahoga County, I would bet a good portion of it (not 86%) is up-down duplexes which were extremely popular with larger families. 

 

In my particular area, the Catholic population has significantly thinned.  That is evidenced by the closing of St. Margaret Mary and St. Greg's, the two neighborhood catholic schools.  Regina, an all girls catholic high school, also closed.  Small sample size, but I wouldn't doubt that 86% of the population loss in northern Cleveland Heights, parts of Euclid and South Euclid, and Collinwood over the past 50 years is indeed due to the exodus of the Catholic families.  Cuyahoga as a whole is another story I suspect.

 

In their attached report from July 2016 they lay out their methodology. Using 2010 census figures, they multiplied the 2010 number of households by the 1970 average household size, then compared the same number of households multiplied by 2010 household size.

 

That gave 93% of loss in Cuyahoga Cty and 35% of Cleveland's.

 

http://engagedscholarship.csuohio.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2370&context=urban_facpub

Boston is a piss-poor comparable for Cleveland.  Boston is a very old City with a ton of historical significance and attraction for tourists.

 

Boston doesn't have vacancies, but it's full of functionally obsolete housing. Call it "shabby chic" or whatever you want; nobody lives there because of the great quality of the housing stock.

^I won't argue the specifics in this thread, but that's a tortured use of "functionally obsolete" if the units are still occupied and commanding high rents.

 

In any case, the comparison to Boston is spurious because of the vastly different economic dynamics in the cities. The Boston area is one of the country's top magnets for international migration and it's net domestic outmigration is almost surely due in part to high prices, not lack of appeal. The development market there, like in all the other high cost coastal cities, is booming about as fast as it's overly tight zoning allows it.

I can say for my part, the street I grew up on had multiple catholic families with 4, 5, 6 kids.  On the street I live on now (very close to where I grew up), my family of 3 kids is tied for the largest.  Most families only have 1 or 2 kids.

 

I don't doubt this--but I don't see how it adds up to 86% of our population loss.    How many of your family and those many Catholic kids have moved away?

 

No idea how it would add up to 86%, but if you look at the abandonment around Cuyahoga County, I would bet a good portion of it (not 86%) is up-down duplexes which were extremely popular with larger families. 

 

In my particular area, the Catholic population has significantly thinned.  That is evidenced by the closing of St. Margaret Mary and St. Greg's, the two neighborhood catholic schools.  Regina, an all girls catholic high school, also closed.  Small sample size, but I wouldn't doubt that 86% of the population loss in northern Cleveland Heights, parts of Euclid and South Euclid, and Collinwood over the past 50 years is indeed due to the exodus of the Catholic families.  Cuyahoga as a whole is another story I suspect.

 

In their attached report from July 2016 they lay out their methodology. Using 2010 census figures, they multiplied the 2010 number of households by the 1970 average household size, then compared the same number of households multiplied by 2010 household size.

 

That gave 93% of loss in Cuyahoga Cty and 35% of Cleveland's.

 

http://engagedscholarship.csuohio.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2370&context=urban_facpub

 

This really shouldn't be all that surprising. We've seen tons of new housing built in the county over the past few decades. If you look at households instead of the number of people, the big story in the Cleveland area is dispersal- spreading out over the land- not shrinkage.

^I won't argue the specifics in this thread, but that's a tortured use of "functionally obsolete" if the units are still occupied and commanding high rents.

 

In any case, the comparison to Boston is spurious because of the vastly different economic dynamics in the cities. The Boston area is one of the country's top magnets for international migration and it's net domestic outmigration is almost surely due in part to high prices, not lack of appeal. The development market there, like in all the other high cost coastal cities, is booming about as fast as it's overly tight zoning allows it.

 

I don't disagree that the comparison is not apples to apples. The guest on the show was using Boston to illustrate what he thought was the best path forward - focusing more on increasing wages than increasing population.

^I've been preaching quality over quantity for years on this forum any time Cleveland's population issues come up. 

Who are "quality" people? Please explain this to me. Is it a certain income threshold?

 

Pretty sure he's saying "quality of life" not, "quality people" when he says, "quality." Increasing the quality of life of Clevelanders instead of focusing on purely increasing the number of Clevelanders.

^ That's how I took it too.  Increase incomes and well being for citizens.  If you do these things, then the people will follow

Pretty sure he's saying "quality of life" not, "quality people" when he says, "quality." Increasing the quality of life of Clevelanders instead of focusing on purely increasing the number of Clevelanders.

 

It's a mixture.  But when talking population numbers, I do mean quality of residents.  And by quality, I'm not talking about moral character.  I am indeed thinking of tax base. 

^I won't argue the specifics in this thread, but that's a tortured use of "functionally obsolete" if the units are still occupied and commanding high rents.

 

In any case, the comparison to Boston is spurious because of the vastly different economic dynamics in the cities. The Boston area is one of the country's top magnets for international migration and it's net domestic outmigration is almost surely due in part to high prices, not lack of appeal. The development market there, like in all the other high cost coastal cities, is booming about as fast as it's overly tight zoning allows it.

 

I don't disagree that the comparison is not apples to apples. The guest on the show was using Boston to illustrate what he thought was the best path forward - focusing more on increasing wages than increasing population.

 

Ah, that makes sense, and should have understood it from the context before jumping all over the slightly outdated understanding of Boston's population. I certainly don't disagree about focusing on quality of life and economic prospects over population in some abstract sense, but I'm also not sure how meaningful that point really is in policy terms. It's true, I guess, that the city incurs some tax expenditures on new residential construction, but the vast majority of spending is already on "economic development" and quality of life stuff. Maybe the point is that we as observers shouldn't get bogged down so much on the raw population number, which certainly makes some sense. Population can certainly tell you something about the health of the region given the lack of barriers to new housing construction, but it's not per se all that important to quality of life.

Very well put. I noticed that that's another problem in Cleveland; people who rely on public transit don't have job opportunities near where they live. Not everyone living on the east side is a bio-medical engineer or doctor. Far from it. Those abandoned neighborhoods don't have any job opportunities for the low income residents who do live there or wouldn't mind living in the area right now. A lot of folks have to take two buses just to get to a minimum wage job and a lot of well-paying jobs in far-away suburbs aren't accessible for them by bus or train. It's a lot easier to just sell drugs.

 

Brookings says fewer than 30% of available jobs are within a "90 minute" transit trip of Greater Clevelanders. That's 90 minutes EACH WAY. If a more tolerable 45-60 minute trip were used as the upper limit, I'm sure that even fewer jobs are accessible.

 

MORE:

https://www.clevelandfed.org/newsroom-and-events/publications/a-look-behind-the-numbers/albtn-20151123-a-long-ride-to-work-job-access-and-public-transportation-in-northeast-ohio.aspx

 

Putting more residential and jobs around transit as a matter of local and regional public policy helps address not only the depopulation and jobs access situation but also addresses the pockets of hyper-poverty that turn former urban neighborhoods into cancerous urban prairies....

 

Cleveland metro ranks in Top 10 in U.S. for concentrated poverty (graphic): Brookings

http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2016/03/cleveland_metro_ranks_in_top_1_1.html

 

Wish our legislators could come up with a tax (or otherwise) means to penalize employers who establish employment centers away from quality (or any) transit (and vice-versa, reward those who create TOD).  Good to know that the 3-cited employment nodes -- downtown, U. Circle and Ohio City -- have the most employees in the region, although I'm hard-pressed to think of large-scale employment in Ohio City outside of Lutheran Medical Center, the restaurants (?) and office in the United Bank building, the one significant office building in OC... Are they including West Flats employers in/around Stonebridge?

It seems that these employment nodes are in fact zip codes, 44113 includes Ohio City and Downtown (Tremont too)

I believe 44113 goes to Ontario on the east, as far south as Clark in Tremont, and over to W 45 (or thereabouts) on the west.  So it includes Warehouse District, Ohio City and most of Tremont

 

I believe 44113 goes to Ontario on the east, as far south as Clark in Tremont, and over to W 45 (or thereabouts) on the west.  So it includes Warehouse District, Ohio City and most of Tremont

 

 

yep, you're not far off; covers Tremont, western edge of downtown and eastern part of ohio city

 

Zip codes are NOT necessarily polygons - http://web.archive.org/web/20050209030255/http://www.manifold.net/cases/zip_codes/zip_codes.html

 

That said, there's many data sources out there that as best as they can to resemble the data such as polygons; and I've used http://www.zipmap.net/Ohio/Cuyahoga_County/Cleveland.htm for free and in most general cases, it has worked for me.

 

(fun fact: 44101 is the little green dot that consists of solely the only green area - the main city post office on Broadway)

^ and not shown, but the Federal Building has its own zip code, 44199

^ and not shown, but the Federal Building has its own zip code, 44199

 

As does the Cleveland Clinic, I think, along with some of the utility companies and other big mail destinations

Urban legend: Cleveland is one of the country's least-suburbanized cities

http://www.crainscleveland.com/article/20170609/BLOGS03/170609796/urban-legend-cleveland-is-one-of-the-countrys-least-suburbanized

Urban legend: Cleveland is one of the country's least-suburbanized cities

http://www.crainscleveland.com/article/20170609/BLOGS03/170609796/urban-legend-cleveland-is-one-of-the-countrys-least-suburbanized

 

That study has both Cleveland and Columbus at 0% of the population in the CBD...behind Indianapolis, San Jose, etc. How is that?

Urban legend: Cleveland is one of the country's least-suburbanized cities

http://www.crainscleveland.com/article/20170609/BLOGS03/170609796/urban-legend-cleveland-is-one-of-the-countrys-least-suburbanized

 

Wierd, the first time I clicked it it worked but the second time it paywalled.

Urban legend: Cleveland is one of the country's least-suburbanized cities

http://www.crainscleveland.com/article/20170609/BLOGS03/170609796/urban-legend-cleveland-is-one-of-the-countrys-least-suburbanized

 

That study has both Cleveland and Columbus at 0% of the population in the CBD...behind Indianapolis, San Jose, etc. How is that?

 

The main problem with this article is that they're using an entire metro to show urbanity of the core city.  That seems kind of dumb to me.  They would be classifying villages, towns and cities in outer counties as "suburbs" or "exurbs" of the core city when they're clearly not.  New Geography is VERY pro-suburb, and most of their articles skew towards that.  This seems to be no different.  If you were to believe them, even New York is more suburban than not. 

Can Cleveland add 130k residents by 2038? 

 

Repopulating Cleveland

from

the Inside Out

 

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4063421/Repopulating-Cleveland-1.pdf

^Maybe... housing and jobs are only part of the issue.  Can the City/ Region sustain job growth during that time period?  Can the schools begin to make the city an attractive place for families with children?  Will RTA continue to cut service to areas of the city that were convenient in regards to public transit?  Will the police continue to not come for hours after 911 is called? 

 

If there was a one-to-one replacement of individuals who have left the city as is listed in the report in neighborhoods like Ohio City, Detroit Shoreway, and Tremont in neighborhoods on the east-side, there would be a larger amount of move-in ready housing.  From my view, much of the east-side is in shambles due to a number of factors though there are beautiful areas which could definitely use an influx of residents.  The housing stock along E. 105th between St. Clair and Superior is one such area, depending on the side street you're on.  You won't see many people who would be willing to pick up and move there, however, if they were given the chance and the choice between E. 105th and a competing area.  I think it all points back to jobs and opportunity for our youth to find a job (or at least the perception/ ability to) locally.

Can Cleveland add 130k residents by 2038? 

 

Repopulating Cleveland

from

the Inside Out

 

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4063421/Repopulating-Cleveland-1.pdf

 

Need to talk about being welcoming to immigrants to get Cleveland's population going again. Gentrification can't lift all boats on this. I wish Cleveland State would do more than just studies on downtown gentrification. We get it, the downtown is growing and can be used to lift other areas as well. Yet the entire city continues to bleed out which more than offsets any real gains in the center.

^ Let's extend a hand to Puerto Rican US citizens who may have lost everything, or all Caribbean peoples for they matter. 

^Hopefully not too late, but BRAVO!!!

 

Here's the website: http://www.tri-c.edu/hispanic-council/bienvenidos-a-cleveland/index.html

Website aids Puerto Rican families relocating to Cleveland

 

Updated 9:15 AM; Posted 9:14 AM

 

By Karen Farkas, cleveland.com kfarkasCleveland[/member].com

CLEVELAND, Ohio - Bienvenidos a Cleveland, a website to aid Puerto Rican families relocating to Cleveland following the devastation of Hurricane Maria, launched Monday.

 

The site, a collaboration between Cuyahoga Community College, the Spanish American Committee, Esperanza Inc. and the Cleveland Metropolitan School District, provides a directory of agencies and organizations offering resources to arriving families.

 

Since late September, hundreds of families have arrived in Cleveland -- many of them seeking support from community-based organizations such as the Spanish American Committee, Cleveland's oldest and largest Hispanic social service agency, Tri-C said.

 

The biggest challenge has been housing, as many of the families have little or no income, officials said in a news release. Other needs include emergency funding, employment assistance, transportation, medical assistance, behavioral services, child care, senior care, food, clothing, diapers and household items.

 

http://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2017/11/website_aids_puerto_rican_fami.html#incart_river_home

^"Since late September, hundreds of families have arrived in Cleveland"

 

How many people have relocated here from PR? Is there a good estimate out there? How many of these are permanent moves vs just temporary?

Tomorrow (Giving Tuesday) is a good day to give a little extra to this effort.

I've seen a lot about "Giving Tuesday" in the past few days. But never heard of it before. Is it new this year? or just more advertised?

 

^"Since late September, hundreds of families have arrived in Cleveland"

 

How many people have relocated here from PR? Is there a good estimate out there? How many of these are permanent moves vs just temporary?

 

Here is some more details:  http://www.ideastream.org/news/local-development-groups-assist-puerto-rican-arrivals-with-job-search

I've seen a lot about "Giving Tuesday" in the past few days. But never heard of it before. Is it new this year? or just more advertised?

 

 

It's been around for a few years.

^"Since late September, hundreds of families have arrived in Cleveland"

 

How many people have relocated here from PR? Is there a good estimate out there? How many of these are permanent moves vs just temporary?

 

Here is some more details:  http://www.ideastream.org/news/local-development-groups-assist-puerto-rican-arrivals-with-job-search

 

Thanks. I hope that 30k number for Ohio means Cleveland.

^"Since late September, hundreds of families have arrived in Cleveland"

 

How many people have relocated here from PR? Is there a good estimate out there? How many of these are permanent moves vs just temporary?

 

Here is some more details:  http://www.ideastream.org/news/local-development-groups-assist-puerto-rican-arrivals-with-job-search

 

Thanks. I hope that 30k number for Ohio means Cleveland.

 

Cleveland does have a large Puerto Rican population but so does Lorain, Lake County and Toledo.

^No so many in Lake County or Toledo. You might be thinking of the significant Mexican communities in those places.

I think there is a decent PR population in Eastern Lake county and Ashtabula County.

^I'm okay with that--its still Cleveland!

^"Since late September, hundreds of families have arrived in Cleveland"

 

How many people have relocated here from PR? Is there a good estimate out there? How many of these are permanent moves vs just temporary?

 

Here is some more details:  http://www.ideastream.org/news/local-development-groups-assist-puerto-rican-arrivals-with-job-search

 

Thanks. I hope that 30k number for Ohio means Cleveland.

 

I know right. an increase of that much, or even as low at 5-7K would likely mean a slight increase in the regional population. Something that hasn't happened since 1998.

^"Since late September, hundreds of families have arrived in Cleveland"

 

How many people have relocated here from PR? Is there a good estimate out there? How many of these are permanent moves vs just temporary?

 

Here is some more details:  http://www.ideastream.org/news/local-development-groups-assist-puerto-rican-arrivals-with-job-search

 

Thanks. I hope that 30k number for Ohio means Cleveland.

 

I know right. an increase of that much, or even as low at 5-7K would likely mean a slight increase in the regional population. Something that hasn't happened since 1998.

 

Still, it's pretty bad when the city-county-region has to rely on displaced people to generate any population growth.

^ that's pretty much how most cities in the US grow or stabilize their populations.

Most U.S. cities rely on people displaced by natural disasters to grow and stabilize populations?  Haven't heard that one before.  I generally thought it was based on economic opportunities.  So, for example, Seattle has relied on natural disasters to displace people, who then relocate there?

Most of the growth in US cities comes from immigrants to the US looking for better opportunities aka displaced people.

Most of the growth in US cities comes from immigrants to the US looking for better opportunities aka displaced people.

 

Exactly. Sure economic opportunity is a huge factor as well, but as the economy in Cleveland has improved over the last decade the population losses have gotten less and less, which is why the additional of even a few refugees could start to grow the regional population.

 

Given a few more years the region may begin to grow based off only economic related relocations.

Most of the growth in US cities comes from immigrants to the US looking for better opportunities aka displaced people.

 

Well, the context of the discussion is the Puerto Rican hurricane displacement, not immigrants coming to Cleveland from abroad for work...that used to happen here, not so much anymore. 

 

Given your new definition of ''displaced people'' (DPs), tons of Clevelanders have been displaced over these past several decades...economic disaster.