50 minutes ago, Pugu said:

If there has been an influx to Cleveland from NY, Chicago, and other places because of Covid, its too bad that it wasn't a few months earlier. The 2020 Census is based on where people were living on April 1st. So if a lot of this movement was in the past 2-3 months, they will not show up in the metro Cleveland numbers (til 2030 if they're still here).

 

But this seems like it has been a movement for quite some time as discussed on this forum.  I was skeptical at first about the license plate thing because as someone who travels (traveled...COVID) for work, I get rental cars and they have license plates from all over.  Visits to Cleveland, and one just a few weeks ago, have proven that these people are in residential neighborhoods from New York, Illinois, New Jersey with dealer-specific license plate frames.  I was amazed at how many I was seeing on the inner west side July 5th.

1 hour ago, Pugu said:

 

The area around Akron is still part of the metro Cleveland.  You don't have to regurgitate what the US Dept of Commerce says--doing so only hurts and minimizes Cleveland.

 

Not so much.  Cleveland has a northeastern character, Akron a midwestern with a touch of Appalachian/southern.  The latter's closer in suburbs definitely identify with Akron instead of Cleveland.   In between is what I call the "borderlands", mostly northern Summit County with some carryover to southern Cuyahoga.   Places like the Nordonia towns, Twinsburg, etc.   Sometimes Walton Hills or even southern Brecksville.  They don't entirely identify with either.  I lived in this area for awhile and still spend a lot of time there.

Edited July 29, 20204 yr by E Rocc

1 hour ago, Pugu said:

@KJP--good article, just read it. It'd be nice if there was some real data on numbers, but I guess this doesn't exist anywhere so all we have is the circumstantial evidence.  Are housing vacancies lower than ever--if people moving here are taking up vacant units and any new units that come on the market?  When Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico---the number of Puerto Ricans that moved to CLE was pegged at 10,000. Where did that number come from?

Vacancies are definitely down in the region. It's not necessarily that out of towners are moving in and taking up formerly vacant properties, but that the market so so tight right now, that just about any available house is being scooped up. Houses which even two years ago we would have demoed are being rehabbed and resold. We have one house in South Euclid (https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/4655-Monticello-Blvd_Cleveland_OH_44143_M43320-22665) that we had a condemnation order on and were going to tear down last year. This house had nearly 150 code violations, most stemming from the main sewer stack being torn out. Two years ago it wouldn't have been touched, but when it came to the city's land bank this year, we ended up having multiple developers bid on it. They listed it on Friday, and 12 hours later had 18 offers and were under contract for 35k over asking. I don't know where the buyers are from, but this market is unlike anything we have seen before here. There are so many similar stories in the area. Supply is tight, but demand is high too, and that high demand has to be coming from somewhere.

8 hours ago, Pugu said:

 

The area around Akron is still part of the metro Cleveland.  You don't have to regurgitate what the US Dept of Commerce says--doing so only hurts and minimizes Cleveland.

 

7 hours ago, E Rocc said:

 

Not so much.  Cleveland has a northeastern character, Akron a midwestern with a touch of Appalachian/southern.  The latter's closer in suburbs definitely identify with Akron instead of Cleveland.   In between is what I call the "borderlands", mostly northern Summit County with some carryover to southern Cuyahoga.   Places like the Nordonia towns, Twinsburg, etc.   Sometimes Walton Hills or even southern Brecksville.  They don't entirely identify with either.  I lived in this area for awhile and still spend a lot of time there.

 

I was talking from an economic perspective, not cultural. Culturally, Medina County and Geuaga Counties are very different than Cuyahoga, yet no one disputes those as part of Metro Cleveland.

7 hours ago, Pugu said:

@KJP--good article, just read it. It'd be nice if there was some real data on numbers, but I guess this doesn't exist anywhere so all we have is the circumstantial evidence.  

 

There is data. I was told Howard Hanna keeps data on moves into/out of the Greater Cleveland area and where they're coming from/going to. But the data was considered to be proprietary so I couldn't get it. I'd still like to get it. So if you know anyone who can get it, please let my know by IM here. Thanks!

7 hours ago, MissinOhio said:

 

But this seems like it has been a movement for quite some time as discussed on this forum.  I was skeptical at first about the license plate thing because as someone who travels (traveled...COVID) for work, I get rental cars and they have license plates from all over.  Visits to Cleveland, and one just a few weeks ago, have proven that these people are in residential neighborhoods from New York, Illinois, New Jersey with dealer-specific license plate frames.  I was amazed at how many I was seeing on the inner west side July 5th.

 

I agree that it seems to have been going on for some time. My point was, if there was a sudden acceleration of the trend because of COVID---if the bulk of that bump occurred in the past 2 months or so, which may be likely, it was AFTER census day (April 1), so all those new Clevelanders would still be counted as New Yorkers or whatever.

1 minute ago, KJP said:

 

There is data. I was told Howard Hanna keeps data on moves into/out of the Greater Cleveland area and where they're coming from/going to. But the data was considered to be proprietary so I couldn't get it. I'd still like to get it. So if you know anyone who can get it, please let my know by IM here. Thanks!

 

Thanks---that would be interesting to see. I guess they've gotten big enough of a company that whatever share of the market they handle, they can extrapolate to estimate the whole market.

17 hours ago, Pugu said:

If there has been an influx to Cleveland from NY, Chicago, and other places because of Covid, its too bad that it wasn't a few months earlier. The 2020 Census is based on where people were living on April 1st. So if a lot of this movement was in the past 2-3 months, they will not show up in the metro Cleveland numbers (til 2030 if they're still here).

 

I personally know 4 people who moved home from Chicago due to Covid, at least for the next 12 months. 2 work in investment banking for JP Morgan and Wells Fargo, but can work remotely - or in the Cleveland office of the same - for the next year at least. They're looking for homes in Rocky River and Ohio City, all intend to buy in the next month or two. 

Although COVID may be cited as the reasoning, I suspect that many of the people leaving big cities are simply at the point where they are over "big city life" and wanted to move to a slower-paced neighborhood anyway. I'm not sure how often this happens in other Ohio cities but I see it all the time in Cincinnati -- after college, they move to NYC or Chicago or LA and live there for 4-5 years, then move back to Ohio where they can afford to buy a house and possibly start a family.

19 minutes ago, taestell said:

Although COVID may be cited as the reasoning, I suspect that many of the people leaving big cities are simply at the point where they are over "big city life" and wanted to move to a slower-paced neighborhood anyway. I'm not sure how often this happens in other Ohio cities but I see it all the time in Cincinnati -- after college, they move to NYC or Chicago or LA and live there for 4-5 years, then move back to Ohio where they can afford to buy a house and possibly start a family.

 

That could be the case locally, but something different is going on in and around Cleveland right now. 

Edited July 30, 20204 yr by Clefan98

I find all of this very interesting. I do agree that we are seeing a move away from the dense, higher-priced coastal cities and Chicago. This may play out to Ohio's advantage (or at least Cleveland's as I can only speak with experience regarding that city). For a long time, I think the general consensus is that Cleveland found itself in a middle ground in terms of legacy built environment. We were missing the built environment and density of coastal cities. As much as I personally love the Ubiquitous Cleveland doubles and colonials lining our streets, they never gave a "wow" factor to the demographic looking for a truly urban experience or coolness. Put it this way, there is a big difference in the urban experience in CLE or any Ohio city for that matter vs NYC, Philly, Boston Chicago urban experience. And as much as we'eve added over the past 10 years, we still do not come close. We just kind of fall in that middle ground of density...too quiet for those wanting the "Hip" city life and too dense for those wanting the quietness of the suburbs.

 

Fast forward to Covid 2020, and I think we are perfectly situated to capitalize on the current situation. Our housing stock now becomes quite practical for both sides. Doubles offer families the opportunity to cohabitate as the next generation of young adults is probably more hesitant to move away to the coasts or grandparents retire and hestitate to retire in Florida or elsewhere. On the flip side, someone coming from the coast can still find decent urbanity without the crush of people at a fraction of the cost. Now the county needs to find a way to incentive modernization of this housing stock because it all of the sudden becomes desirable again.

52 minutes ago, taestell said:

Although COVID may be cited as the reasoning, I suspect that many of the people leaving big cities are simply at the point where they are over "big city life" and wanted to move to a slower-paced neighborhood anyway. I'm not sure how often this happens in other Ohio cities but I see it all the time in Cincinnati -- after college, they move to NYC or Chicago or LA and live there for 4-5 years, then move back to Ohio where they can afford to buy a house and possibly start a family.

 

We weren't over the big city life when we moved to Cincinnati and still aren't. We would prefer a bigger city honestly. But economic realities are what they are and we can afford a nice house in Cincinnati and we have grown to like it here. The demand to live in big cities is huge and it is good for Cincy, Cleveland, and Flavortown that there is more demand than NYC, Philly, DC, Boston, Chicago, etc. can absorb (and exclusionary zoning exacerbates that problem, to our benefit here). A lot of people are now ending up in Ohio as a second choice but like it a lot and become invested in the community. Our next door neighbors moved here from LA because they could more comfortably afford to raise their family. One of our good friends moved here from NYC because her apartment in Harlem was so expensive and she was tired of having roommates. Another grew up in Manhattan, but married an Ohioan and they moved to Cincinnati so they could be closer to his parents for childcare. All of us, deep in our hearts, would still prefer the places we came from, and maybe someday we'll go back. But we like it here too and we're all committed to making it a better place to live.

There must be some outmigration too for the same reason?  A New Yorker's Cleveland is the same as a Clevelander's Findley or Salem, OH.  People from those small towns who at one point moved to Cleveland as their big city have decided to move back home for the same reasons people leave NY or Chicago. Is there any evidence of this happen too? Or just the movements to CLE and Cincy?

2 hours ago, YABO713 said:

 

I personally know 4 people who moved home from Chicago due to Covid, at least for the next 12 months. 2 work in investment banking for JP Morgan and Wells Fargo, but can work remotely - or in the Cleveland office of the same - for the next year at least. They're looking for homes in Rocky River and Ohio City, all intend to buy in the next month or two. 

 

@YABO713 I should've interviewed you while researching my article! 

^ well it sure looks like this topic is going to have legs, maybe you could interview real estate brokers as part of a follow up later on? 

 

i have a friend who is a top real estate broker in cle let me know.

 

 

 

22 minutes ago, Pugu said:

There must be some outmigration too for the same reason?  A New Yorker's Cleveland is the same as a Clevelander's Findley or Salem, OH.  People from those small towns who at one point moved to Cleveland as their big city have decided to move back home for the same reasons people leave NY or Chicago. Is there any evidence of this happen too? Or just the movements to CLE and Cincy?

 

 

what i have read from the ny end news on this is inconculsive so far, other that it looks like city people are mostly moving to other cities, not suburbs or rural.

 

now remember that works in both directions, meaning people still move from the big ohio cities to other cities too, but it does anecdotally seem to be more beneficial in the direction of toward cle lately due to corona.

 

oh and one of the reasons why its inconclusive in ny is that nyc empties out seasonally anyway at this time of year when the rich head to the hamptons and whatever, so maybe more will not be known until the fall or winter. i can only say we have a lot of very wealthy and young transient people in my neighborhood and both of those groups are the ones who have obviously left. also, that it seems a lot more empty all over downtown in nyc than typical for summer, but otoh it seemed normal on my one visit up to the wash hts and the bronx and my one other visit to downtown brooklyn since covid. 

^This may finally reduce some of the insane rents in places in NY and SF.  Hopefully these covid-prompted moves to CLE from the coasts and Chicago will be permanent or least long enough to prop up the market and attract other new people.

Would it be possible to get data comparing how prices in suburban Cleveland have held up compared with prices in the markets that the thesis suggests that people may be leaving?  I don't have any personal stories of people I know leaving Boston, Philadelphia, or Chicago (the three larger out-of-state cities where I know the most people) for Cleveland or other midsize interior cities.  However, my wife and I were house-hunting, just to see if house prices were coming down during the pandemic, and they certainly aren't in the more upscale suburbs of Akron (we looked in Hudson, Richfield, Bath Township, Copley Township, and Fairlawn).  Prices really were not coming down at all, so either (a) supply shrank to match shrinking demand, or (b) demand actually stayed high and people are snapping up even fairly expensive houses.  If (b), that could definitely imply out-of-area money coming in.

^Also, interest rates are extremely low now, so people--locally--wanted to upgrade their housing and that can get loans are doing so.  Homes put on the market in CLE--depending on the neighborhood--are not lasting more than a few weeks, I've heard.

 

"I don't have any personal stories of people I know leaving Boston, Philadelphia, or Chicago....for Cleveland or other midsize interior cities."

 

Interior city?  Have you not seen that giant lake on the northern edge of the city? Its the third (North) coast, remember!?!

1 minute ago, Pugu said:

"I don't have any personal stories of people I know leaving Boston, Philadelphia, or Chicago....for Cleveland or other midsize interior cities."

 

Interior city?  Have you not seen that giant lake on the northern edge of the city? Its the third (North) coast, remember!?!

 

Chicago is on one of those big lakes, too, I'm aware. ? 

15 minutes ago, Gramarye said:

Would it be possible to get data comparing how prices in suburban Cleveland have held up compared with prices in the markets that the thesis suggests that people may be leaving?  I don't have any personal stories of people I know leaving Boston, Philadelphia, or Chicago (the three larger out-of-state cities where I know the most people) for Cleveland or other midsize interior cities.  However, my wife and I were house-hunting, just to see if house prices were coming down during the pandemic, and they certainly aren't in the more upscale suburbs of Akron (we looked in Hudson, Richfield, Bath Township, Copley Township, and Fairlawn).  Prices really were not coming down at all, so either (a) supply shrank to match shrinking demand, or (b) demand actually stayed high and people are snapping up even fairly expensive houses.  If (b), that could definitely imply out-of-area money coming in.

 

Anecdotal evidence but my wife and I when we eventually move back to Cleveland probably want to end up in Shaker Heights so I monitor the prices and check in from time to time.  I can definitely say that the prices have gone up  in the past several months and there have been several that I've seen sell above ask.

The prices are going up in many midsized and small cities because of less supply, not increased demand.  

 

 

There is a lot of migration data available. All of it seems to suggest Ohio is near the bottom of the table for domestic migration. I guess Covid could possibly change the trend but all available data pretty clearly shows people are leaving the industrial northeast and settling in the sunbelt. Same as it’s been for decades. 

2 hours ago, Pugu said:

There must be some outmigration too for the same reason?  A New Yorker's Cleveland is the same as a Clevelander's Findley or Salem, OH.  People from those small towns who at one point moved to Cleveland as their big city have decided to move back home for the same reasons people leave NY or Chicago. Is there any evidence of this happen too? Or just the movements to CLE and Cincy?

 

It seems reasonable to assume. Yet, I'm not sure if it makes total sense. The urban neighborhoods in Cincy, Cbus, and CLE pretty much function as small towns within the city limit. It's not like Philly or NYC where the grid is continuous for miles and one neighborhood bleeds into the next. Every neighborhood is its own little pod. And congestion isn't really bad, there's lots of open space nearby, etc. So what does moving to Findlay bring you? You'd probably live in a similar house but just have less amenities. Just a thought.

Living in Chicago, here is what would make me move after going through this pandemic. Chicago sucks for nature. Don't get me wrong, the city has some of the most beautiful urban parks in the country. I am talking about real nature in the city or even burbs, not man made on a prairie/floodplain. I went to Indy last weekend to visit my sister and went to Holliday Park in the Indianapolis to hike around. A natural ravine with a flowing river, I realized I was really missing that option in Chicago. The closest thing is Starved Rock State Park 80 miles away. That park in Indy is a fraction of what Cleveland has.

 

What I wouldn't give to be able to go to Cuyahoga Valley, Euclid Creek, Rocky River, Bedford, Chagrin, Sand Run, The Gorge and  the Towpath Trail right now! All in your backyard if you live in Cleveland or Akron. Such an asset. 

 

Having to buy a car...ugh!

Edited July 31, 20204 yr by metrocity

@metrocity I've lived without a car in Cleveland (Lakewood) when I was single. And I could still do it if my son wasn't going to school in Cleveland and my didn't work for Instacart. If you live near West 117th, around Clifton/Detroit as I do, it's possible. Ditto for downtown, east end of Ohio City, Little Italy/Uptown, Shaker Square/Larchmere, and a few other places.

Edited July 31, 20204 yr by KJP

^ @kjp I have lived in Chicago long enough to have seen the dark days of CTA being underfunded, broken down buses and trains all the time. I was on way too many express buses that literally just died and came to a stop in the middle of Lakeshore Drive, sometimes a few times a week. CTA has gotten way better. Like 1000 times better, and keeps improving.

 

 I don't trust RTA or the state of Ohio to put my eggs in that basket quite frankly. A crappy daily commute sucks. I use RTA when I visit, and its fine for that, reliable on a daily commute, I'm not convinced. RTA gets worse over the years it seems unfortunately. And it's probably the best transit sytem in Ohio, which isn't a high bar. Not trying to start an RTA thing, just saying that is what holds me back from coming back.

Edited July 31, 20204 yr by metrocity

I wasn’t sure where to put this as the article I am referencing touches on several things  While it is mainly about May Co. it gives some leasing percentages and facts on several of the new buildings. They all seem optimistic they will lease up fairly soon:

May (307 Units): ‘Neale predicts the May will take 12 to 18 months to fill up.’

‘Most of the apartments are one- or two-bedroom units, though Bedrock incorporated a few studios and three-bedroom floor plans. Rents start at $1,260 a month for a 570-square-foot studio and top out at $3,085 for a penthouse. The average price per square foot is $2.17.’

 

Beacon: ‘The Beacon, a 187-unit high-rise at Euclid and East Sixth Street, opened early this year and is 55% occupied. Developer Stark Enterprises expects to hit 95% occupancy in early 2021, said Brian Weisberg, the company's vice president of residential operations.

The average rental rate at the Beacon is $2.29 per square foot...’

 

Lumen: ‘At the 318-unit Lumen, more than 50 tenants have signed on, and roughly a dozen have moved in.

"I'm hoping and expecting that we're going to lease up within less than 12 months," said Art Falco, senior advisor for special projects at Playhouse Square, the building's owner.

Construction at the tower should be complete by mid-September.

Pricing for one-bedroom units at the Lumen starts at just shy of $1,500 a month, while penthouses are being advertised at rents of up to $6,661.’

 

Link to full article: https://www.crainscleveland.com/real-estate/may-co-leasing-starts-big-projects-test-depth-downtown-clevelands-apartment-market

On 7/29/2020 at 1:58 PM, Pugu said:

If there has been an influx to Cleveland from NY, Chicago, and other places because of Covid, its too bad that it wasn't a few months earlier. The 2020 Census is based on where people were living on April 1st. So if a lot of this movement was in the past 2-3 months, they will not show up in the metro Cleveland numbers (til 2030 if they're still here).

 

I think it goes without saying that with the pandemic and all the political shenanigans, the 2020 Census is going to be pretty screwed up in a lot of places, anyway.  

On 7/30/2020 at 8:09 AM, taestell said:

Although COVID may be cited as the reasoning, I suspect that many of the people leaving big cities are simply at the point where they are over "big city life" and wanted to move to a slower-paced neighborhood anyway. I'm not sure how often this happens in other Ohio cities but I see it all the time in Cincinnati -- after college, they move to NYC or Chicago or LA and live there for 4-5 years, then move back to Ohio where they can afford to buy a house and possibly start a family.

 

The New York Times has written several articles over the years of people leaving NYC for Columbus.  It didn't just start with the pandemic.  The primary factor in these types of relocations is likely cost of living rather than being "over" urban life.

Not over urban life, over big city life specifically. I think a lot of people try out a city like NYC for a few years and finally decide the cost and hassles aren't worth it to them, and they can have a quality urban life in other cities that are far more affordable. Especially if it correlated with other life changes like wanting to buy a house and/or start a family.

Yeah, Americans seem to think the only choices are Midtown Manhattan or Mentor, and that "urban living" exclusively means skyscrapers and traffic. But you can absolutely still be a walkable community and have a yard and even a garage. 

On ‎7‎/‎30‎/‎2020 at 12:19 PM, jmecklenborg said:

The prices are going up in many midsized and small cities because of less supply, not increased demand.  

 

 

 

 

Housing prices continue to jump amid pandemic

 

By: Scripps National

Posted at 10:29 PM, Jul 30, 2020

and last updated 4:40 AM, Jul 31, 2020

 

Home prices hit a new all-time high this month. New numbers out today from Realtor.com show the national median listing price is at $349,000, a $27,000 increase over last year.

 

But there aren't a lot of homes available.

 

The number for sale across the country is down 33 percent compared to a year ago.

 

Pittsburgh and Los Angeles saw the biggest jump in housing, with respectively a 25% and 24.3% jump in median listing price from this time a year ago.

 

The average listing is on the market for 60 days, marking no change from this time a year ago.

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.realtor.com/research/

 

Went to the site.

 

Ohio Cities

Cleveland-Elyria went up 14% YoY to $235 (about $29k) with active listings dropping 47%.   

Cincinnati metro had a massive increase of 18% to 340k (around $52k) with active listings dropping 52%.

Columbus - 5% increase to 332k (about 16k), listings down 43%.

 

Some of the Bigger Cities

Boston 13% increase to 675k, listings down 31%

Miami - 2% decrease to 404k, listings down 12%

Chicago - 5% increase to 349k, listings down 32%

New York - 6% increase to 593k, listings down 16%.

 

Nationwide prices increased 8% with listings decreasing 33%. 

 

 

2 hours ago, jmecklenborg said:

 

 

Housing prices continue to jump amid pandemic

 

By: Scripps National

Posted at 10:29 PM, Jul 30, 2020

and last updated 4:40 AM, Jul 31, 2020

 

Home prices hit a new all-time high this month. New numbers out today from Realtor.com show the national median listing price is at $349,000, a $27,000 increase over last year.

 

But there aren't a lot of homes available.

 

The number for sale across the country is down 33 percent compared to a year ago.

 

Pittsburgh and Los Angeles saw the biggest jump in housing, with respectively a 25% and 24.3% jump in median listing price from this time a year ago.

 

The average listing is on the market for 60 days, marking no change from this time a year ago.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Confused who is dying to buy a house during such uncertain times with this Pandemic and this shaky as hell econemy...

8 minutes ago, troeros said:

 

Confused who is dying to buy a house during such uncertain times with this Pandemic and this shaky as hell econemy…

 

Yeah we're going to see a lot of houses go under contract and then have the deal fall apart when the buyer loses their job.  I refinanced earlier this year and they picked up the phone and called my employer once a week to make sure I still had a job.  

 

Meanwhile, people who own so-called "starter" homes are being told it's a seller's market and are taking the opportunity to jump to a bigger house.  There are a lot of things that delay and scuttle that process during ordinary times but right now bad things are a lot more likely to happen.  For example, a seller accepts your offer but then the buyer of your first house loses his job.  It could easily turn into a 6+ month ordeal. 

 

What's really dumb is that people who are sitting on the suddenly-hot "starter" homes could do a cash-out refinance, keep the exact same payment, and pay off all of their consumer debt, student loans, car loans, etc.  Instead the exact sort of people who are carting around debt are the same ones who will think they're making a big move by "moving up" in house rather than getting their house in order.  

 

 

 

On 7/30/2020 at 9:44 PM, metrocity said:

^ @kjp I have lived in Chicago long enough to have seen the dark days of CTA being underfunded, broken down buses and trains all the time. I was on way too many express buses that literally just died and came to a stop in the middle of Lakeshore Drive, sometimes a few times a week. CTA has gotten way better. Like 1000 times better, and keeps improving.

 

 I don't trust RTA or the state of Ohio to put my eggs in that basket quite frankly. A crappy daily commute sucks. I use RTA when I visit, and its fine for that, reliable on a daily commute, I'm not convinced. RTA gets worse over the years it seems unfortunately. And it's probably the best transit sytem in Ohio, which isn't a high bar. Not trying to start an RTA thing, just saying that is what holds me back from coming back.

 

When I went car-free, I was surprised that most of my trips were in the neighborhood. Most of what I could accomplish was within reach by walking. A few more distant trips I would bike, and on the rare occasion (like work), I would take RTA. Today I wouldn't even need that since I work from mostly home (started doing that before the pandemic). Or I used Uber/Lyft. On the rare occasions that I go to my office downtown, I take the 55 (Cleveland State BRT) which is a fast, reliable, comfortable trip.

listings decreasing nationwide is probably because people took their homes off the market and the housing going gangbusters is pent up demand after the shutdown.

 

a very atypical situation.

 

the economy could crush the housing market like anything else at some point.

 

that being - people having less money, bounce building where construction now jumps up as demand then falters, leading to over supply, and also if not quite the current epic high unemployment, then continuing very high unemployment.

 

probably several other factors too. 

Cross posting from the Housing Market tread, but also relevant to our recent conversation here: 

 

Rents in Ohio outpacing the rest of the nation YoY for July: https://www.crainscleveland.com/scott-suttell-blog/apartment-rental-rates-keep-pushing-higher-cleveland

Quote

Apartment rental rates keep pushing higher in Cleveland

SCOTT SUTTELL August 03, 2020 02:49 PM 

 

Topping the list of gainers: Cleveland, with a median one-bedroom apartment rent of $940 in July, up 16% from a year ago. (Cleveland's two-bedroom median rent was $1,000, up 14.9% from a year ago.)

 

WolfStreet.com speculates that "part of what we're seeing is people leaving some expensive markets and moving to cheaper markets, maybe moving back home ... either because they lost their jobs or because they're allowed to work from anywhere."

 

https://www.hireahelper.com/moving-statistics/covid-migration-report/

 

This is depressing if it's accurate. The numbers suggest there has been an increase in moves to Cleveland but an even larger increase in moves OUT OF Cleveland.

53 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said:

https://www.hireahelper.com/moving-statistics/covid-migration-report/

 

This is depressing if it's accurate. The numbers suggest there has been an increase in moves to Cleveland but an even larger increase in moves OUT OF Cleveland.

I'm curious how you're interpreting the data?

This infographic is for total moves. There’s a table above in the article that shows net moves in and out. 
 

Also, I’m more skeptical of all these numbers having reviewed the 2019 and 2018 reports they have online. The numbers from those don’t make sense which makes me wonder about whether there’s a big enough sample size for midsized cities.

16 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said:

This infographic is for total moves. There’s a table above in the article that shows net moves in and out. 
 

Also, I’m more skeptical of all these numbers having reviewed the 2019 and 2018 reports they have online. The numbers from those don’t make sense which makes me wonder about whether there’s a big enough sample size for midsized cities.

got it - thanks! 

They're basing this on their database of moves since March 11th, which for Cleveland is a grand total of 50 moves.  I doubt that this is any sort of representative sample.

Also: 
 

"Sources & Methodology

HireAHelper's COVID Moving Study analyzed Hybrid moving data in the US, booked through our online platform in 2020."

 

So its just who used their platform. Hardly a representative sample fo the country. I've never even heard of them.

https://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/2020/09/ranking-us-cities-for-poverty-cleveland-12th-overall-but-no-1-among-places-of-at-least-200000-census-estimates.html
 

why is Cleveland’s population shown to be 370k? It was just recently estimated at 381k. Has there been a mass exodus or were the previous numbers way off?

On 9/19/2020 at 1:06 PM, cle_guy90 said:

https://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/2020/09/ranking-us-cities-for-poverty-cleveland-12th-overall-but-no-1-among-places-of-at-least-200000-census-estimates.html
 

why is Cleveland’s population shown to be 370k? It was just recently estimated at 381k. Has there been a mass exodus or were the previous numbers way off?

I think this is a typo. The census's website shows a 2019 estimate of about 381k.

 

 

EDIT: Actually, on rereading, I see the following language: "x-Note: the population listed are those from the Census Bureau’s American Community survey, which determines poverty rates and other demographic estimates. These estimates differ some from the official population estimate for each place determined by separate research." Looks like it's a separate, (hopefully less accurate) estimate.

Edited September 22, 20204 yr by LlamaLawyer

With all of the new housing being built in Cleveland, the numbers should start going the other way soon.

20 minutes ago, skiwest said:

With all of the new housing being built in Cleveland, the numbers should start going the other way soon.

Possibly; I hope so. A lot of the population loss is from the broader national trend of black flight to the suburbs, so I'm not sure when/how/if that stops and reverses. From 2010 to 2019, Cleveland had the following demographic changes:

 

non-Hispanic white: -4,136 people

black/African American: -22,521 people

Hispanic: +4,515 people

Asian: +2,001 people

 

For Cuyahoga County, you have the following changes in the same period:

 

white*: -29,886 people

black/African American: -3,499 people

Hispanic: +16,363 people

Asian: + 8,709 people

 

*(I can't find the breakdown of non-Hispanic, but the loss would be deeper, since it wouldn't be net of the gains in Hispanic population who identify as white)

 

So clearly the county is losing non-Hispanic white people in droves (in large part to exurbs and Columbus), while the city has a relatively stable population. The city, on the other hand, is losing black people (mostly to suburbs in the county), while the county as a whole has a relatively stable population. 

 

So given that Cleveland is mostly losing people to the suburbs through black flight, I'm not sure how new housing affects that. I could see it either retaining and bringing in new people or driving people out.

unfortunately the new build is typically focused on only one or two residents. that's the same everywhere though. just don't count on new build apts to move the population much at the rate they are beong built in cleveland. the real key is getting more families back into renovated old homes. new build and spinoff can certainly help attract that in the surrounding areas!

3 minutes ago, mrnyc said:

the real key is getting more families back into renovated old homes. new build and spinoff can certainly help attract that in the surrounding areas!

 

It's a shame so many are demolished.   It would be nice if they gave them away (even to a developer) with a promise that the house would be renovated within a certain time period.